The Candidates
Featured Archives
And the good news keeps rolling in for Mitt Romney:
Rasmussen Reports Republican Iowa Caucus
- Huckabee – 28% (39)
- Romney – 27% (23)
- McCain – 14% (6)
- Thompson – 8% (8)
- Giuliani – 8% (8)
- Paul – 6% (5)
- Tancredo – 2% (3)
- Hunter – 1% (1)
Survey of likely caucus-goers was conducted Dec 17.
Rasmussen notes that Huckabee’s favorable rating has dropped from 81% to 67% in one week, and his support from evangelicals dropped from 62% to 49%.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:11 am
YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
December 19th, 2007 at 11:12 am
OH MY GOODNESS!!! whoopie! amazing. what a ride.
whats up with this by the way: (off topic)
http://libertarianrepublican.blogspot.com/2007/12/john-mccain-staffer-allegedly-discussed.html
December 19th, 2007 at 11:12 am
HOLY CRAP! McCain at 14 in Iowa. Looks like the Des Moines Register endorsement paid off after all!
December 19th, 2007 at 11:12 am
check out mccain.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:13 am
I didn’t know this when I predicted a half hour ago on another thread that Romney would sweep the first 7 states, but I suspected it from what I was seeing on the tv, and the other Iowa poll yesterday.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:14 am
LJ,
Yup. That’s how I’d explain McCain’s number. Well that sure puts a crimp on Fred’s hopes, if other polls bear it out.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:15 am
You might want to change the title MattC. Huck is up by 1 point, after all.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:16 am
Wow, those endorsements really are paying off. We’ll see if Thompson’s big Iowa endorsement will have any effect in the next round of polling.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:17 am
Matthew,
The pretty blue chart on Rasmussen’s page has Romney and Huckabee both at 27%. Those were the original numbers I posted here, hence the title. I have since edited the numbers to what was in Rasmussen’s story and changed the title accordingly.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:17 am
abe, you are a genius…. kind of.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:17 am
Huck looses 11 points in a week – if thats not a BUST I dont know what is.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:18 am
Wow, McCain’s within 4 of Romney in the new Rasmussen NH poll. Very interesting stuff. I consider the Union Leader and WMUR the gold standard in NH polling though, so I suspect this is an outlier.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:20 am
MSM has been pushing McCain so hard the last week its sickening.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:20 am
Yes, Huckabee is down, but he is still leading. That is hardly a “bust”.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:20 am
Definitely a good poll for Romney and McCain. No doubt about that.
There is a silver lining for Huckabee though. From Rasmussen:
“Sixty-two percent (62%) of Likely Caucus participants say they are certain they will not change their mind before January 3. That includes 65% of Huckabee supporters, 58% of those who prefer Romney, and 55% of McCain voters.
Among those who say there’s a good chance they could change their mind, Thompson and Huckabee top the second choice list. ”
So it would appear that Huck’s support is a little firmer, and would gain more than Romney if voters make this a two man race.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:21 am
I think Romney’s speech is factoring in here. Add to that the many flub-ups by Huckabee over playing the religion card and it is about neck & neck.
Next week these poll should have factored in the impact of Huckabee’s ridiculous Bush’s bunker mentality flub and Romney will be back in the lead for good.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:22 am
Is polling really even reliable anymore? I love to see this for Romney, but I don’t think I have ever seen anything like this. I can’t wait untl the voting begins and we know for sure…this is nuts!
December 19th, 2007 at 11:22 am
On a cheerier note, Rudy is facing 6th in Iowa. The specter of the pro abortion nominee is now fading.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:23 am
MWS,
That was an interesting number, given that Romney is now viewed favorably by 73% of Iowans, compared to 67% who view Huckabee favorably. So I’d suspect that Romney would actually win a two man race, but a larger number of people who like Huckabee have him as either their first or second choice.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:24 am
#14 UA – the last rassmusen iowa poll had Huck up 16 points a week ago – I ask again if thats not a bust then what is?
December 19th, 2007 at 11:25 am
Wow!
McCain third in Iowa for the first time since July. McCain within 4 points of Romney and 14 points(!!) ahead of Giuliani in New Hampshire. I think I need to sit down for a minute.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:26 am
I agree with #18.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:26 am
I think that FDT will make a strong push for 3rd in Iowa…maybe Iowans will remember that McCain has given them the Finger for too long!
Mitt shouldn’t worry too much with NH on one poll, McCain got some big endorsements, lets see if other polls show a similar trend or whether it is a fluke!
December 19th, 2007 at 11:27 am
I have to say, right now Mitt is the best positioned. In every regard.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:28 am
I think this poll, and Rasmussen’s NH poll, and Rasmussen’s South Carolina poll show something I have long suspected; Iowa, NH, and SC are leading indicators, and national polls are lagging indicators. Huck went down in all 3 polls. Those early states are the first to note big rises. They are the first to note ANYTHING, because they’re simply paying more attention. I wouldn’t quite call this a “Huckabust”, but it does seem likely that Huckabee will have a hard time sustaining his current numbers, as more voters tune in.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:28 am
It really seems that this race is beginning to look more like it did in the beginning with respect to McCain. I think he will definitely be a factor in a few early states.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:29 am
Huckabee has clearly been the best thing to happen to McCain and Romney and the absolute worst to Giuliani and Thompson.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:32 am
At one point in this race, I believed that after the first couple of states, this whole thing would be over. I am less convinced of that now. This appears it will be a fight to the end.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:34 am
if this trend keeps up, huck will have been the gift that romney needed to win the nomination. it will be clear that withouth hcuk romney’s chances would have been much different.
huck gave him the national bump romney has always needed to allay early state voters of his viability in a general.
there is still a lot of time left before iowa and new hampshire. this race is FAR FROM OVER so i am not going to get too excited. i just hope is sowns hard on january 3rd.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:36 am
LJ,
I don’t think Huckabee has anything to do with McCain’s improved numbers. The Des Moines Register, the Boston Globe, the New Hampshire Union Leader, and Joe Lieberman are responsible. Huckabee has clearly hurt Fred and Rudy. I’m not yet convinced that Mitt prefers a possible loss in Iowa, to a runaway win there, even if he’s now capable of winning the expectations game. I think both Mitt and McCain are having good days because of events mostly external to Huckabee.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:36 am
The real Mike Huckabee has finally shown up for an interview. You have heard all about the “nice guy†Huckabee and might have heard some rumblings from Arkansas that the real Mike wasn’t so nice. This NYT article brings you an initial glimpse of the REAL Huckabee:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/19/us/politics/19huckabee.html?_r=2&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&ref=politics&adxnnlx=1198080436-MGRk+cKXbAWpPOh3Z7YHgg
The real Huckabee is just as self absorbed as Clinton. In the last 10 days, Obama has been accused of being a drug dealer and an Islamic Manchurian Candidate, and the full brunt of the Clinton attach machine.
Huckabee has been subject to a couple of tepid Romney commercials and a few critical blog articles.
Hucks response to mild criticism:
“I have a lot more enemies now, but that’s part of the deal,†Mr. Huckabee said. He has cited attacks from the news media, interest groups and other candidates over his record as governor, his background as a Baptist preacher, past ethical questions, alleged liberal tendencies, impolitic remarks about people with AIDS, raising taxes and “just about everything from the kidnapping of the Lindbergh baby to being complicit in the participation of the J.F.K. assassination.â€
America, meet the petty self absorbed Mike Huckabee. What is he going to do when he faces a real attack?
December 19th, 2007 at 11:38 am
Huck is a blessing to Romney too…if he can pull off Iowa because Iowa has now become important in the race, when a few months ago people were willing to brush it aside. If Mitt can get Iowa, then NH should be easy, despite this new poll and McCain.
Thanks Huck!
December 19th, 2007 at 11:39 am
I think I was the one that started the Huck/JFK rumors…happy to see it come full cirlce! jk
December 19th, 2007 at 11:40 am
The faster they rise, the harder they fall.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:40 am
what a race!!! mccain is now tkaing romney on in new hampshire. can romney fend of attacks from both candidates and pull of a win in both. i doubt it. all this fighitng with giuliani left out may be enough time for people to forget about why they don’t like giuliani and vote for him.
it probably depends on how far giuliani falls. if he keeps falling, i doubt there will be a come back. it looks lik emccain is going to suck out any steam a giuliani comeback may require.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:41 am
Huck has roped himself in with the Christmas commercial. He cannot change his message without being accused of panicing. If Huck runs a new commercial before Christmas, he will be asked what happened to the politics free Christmas? Are you pressing the panic button? A change in commercials before the holiday will cause the MSM to declare the Huckabust. Huck got roped by his own slickness.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:41 am
ilfigo, is that the case still if mccain makes a suprise showing and gets third place in iowa.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:43 am
Rombots, you better tell Mitt to keep running those soft styled attack adds on Huck. That is what is working. Don’t let up now.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:43 am
i saw him today on ncb saying he think we shoould stop with the political attacks during christmass afterwhich he started nailing romney like crazy. you can see he has really thin skin.
another debate would really kill him. if people started attacking him in a debate he would lose it and lose his ‘gee, i am funny and nice and unassuming’ image.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:44 am
McCain has been the benefactor of no attention from other campaigns because he has been irelevant. Now that he’s relevant he is an easy target to take out.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:45 am
If the evangelizing candidate could not hold the substantial lead in a Evangelical state for more than a few weeks, there is no way he will win the rest of America. It’s been fun, but the Huckabee carnival ride will soon be over.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:46 am
It looks like Rudy can’t make the excuse that he abandoned Iowa. He poured far more in the McCain, and McCain may trounce him for the distant 3rd.
Bad day for Huck, worse day for Thompson and Guiliani.
Coupled with the new Rasmussen NH poll, this looks like a three man race- Huck, Romney, and McCain.
The news from NH isn’t so rosy for Romney.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:46 am
The nice Huck is gone. The funny Huck is on vacation. Meet the REAL HUCK. Whining, clintonian attacking while protesting attacks. The poor pitiful me Huck. Meet the REAL HUCK.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:46 am
Dubious…depends on whether this recent NH poll is true or a quick boost that will fade after the endorsements. I imagine this new Iowa poll also doesn’t take into effect the King endorsement of FDT, which will raise his numbers and lower Hucks. 3rd place will be a big voctory for McCain. But I think if Mitt wins, McCain will only get 2nd in NH, with or without a 3rd place in Iowa.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:47 am
Also Dubious…curious how this new McCain/TX E-blogger story will play out…
December 19th, 2007 at 11:50 am
“Rasmussen notes that Huckabee’s favorable rating has dropped from 81% to 67% in one week, and his support from evangelicals dropped from 62% to 49%.”
To quote the late great Lee Atwater, “We aregoing to strip the bark off of that little bas$&#&>”
December 19th, 2007 at 11:55 am
what a wonderful day!!! there is hope in our party!!! just say no to big government compasionate conservatives.
December 19th, 2007 at 11:56 am
Dubious,
What is this…..
“abe, you are a genius…. kind of.”
…KIND OF….
Come On…..
I have been taking heat for this….
Give some credit….
December 19th, 2007 at 11:57 am
If Romney takes down his soft negative adds, Huck will go back up. He is wounded, but we have to keep him on the matt.
December 19th, 2007 at 12:00 pm
ilfigo. yes, there is still a lot in the air. too early to tell.
but the mccain e-blogger scandal will have no legs. you and i both know the media will not do that to him. if it were romney they would be all over it. but mccain is like media royalty. you never see things like this hurt him. it is amazing what the media does on his behalf. absoluytely amazing.
that is why you see republicans constnatly bowing to liberal positions, becuase the media makes them kings.
people have forgotten how much they hate mccain because he has been irrelevant for so long. he may be peaking right at the tright time, where there is no time for us to remember how much conservatives hate him. that is why i don’t see him getting the nod. he has a ceiling of support. he could derail romney however.
one thing i for sure. the gop is fractured and has no idea who to support. there is no one canddate that has risen as a consensus nominee. i wouldn’t be suprised if this thing goes long after february 5th. i used to thin kthat was crap, but now i am startin gto believe it watching this.
one this is for sure. romney has demonstrated he has core supporters in those states where he has spent a lot of time. other than that, what do we know? nothign.
December 19th, 2007 at 12:00 pm
abe, i give you all the credi the world. you i said ‘kind of’ because you predicted the bust on the 3rd. your timing was just a little off. but your intuitino about hucks support was right on!
December 19th, 2007 at 12:03 pm
Surprised Intrade still has Huck favored by a big margin (65 to 27) considering the following:
-Romney’s superior organization (although maybe Huck’s churches allow him to unofficially have as much of an organization as Romney?)
-Romney’s extra dough / spending
-the extra votes Romney will get from Mormons who don’t usually caucus (are the polls sophisticated enough to capture this?)
What am I missing? Why is Huck so favored on Intrade? I guess one advantage Huck has that’s not in the polls is he’s fighting only one battle right now (Iowa) whereas Mitt potentially has two (Iowa, NH).
December 19th, 2007 at 12:17 pm
It would be more effective if Fred did some comparison to Huckabee. Fred hit him really hard on Hannity and Colmes last night. More of that in an ad in western Iowa would do Huck a lot of damage. When people see Mitt doing all of the comparisons, they think maybe the criticism is not as valid. Fred or McCain or both need to hit him in Iowa.
December 19th, 2007 at 12:20 pm
#52, I’m noticing the same thing. Intrade is not nearly as timely in making warranted admustments as you would think they would be. Personally, if I were a betting man, I would take the Romney odds in Iowa with no hesitation.
December 19th, 2007 at 12:34 pm
#7 Matt
Actually, maybe he should change to the title to “Huck drops 9% in a week” or “The Beginning of the Huck-a-Bust”.
December 19th, 2007 at 12:35 pm
Speaking of Intrade, where’s Metro at?
December 19th, 2007 at 12:36 pm
Oops, pardon my math:
“Huck drops 11% in a week”.
December 19th, 2007 at 12:37 pm
It looks like millions of dollars in negative ads still works, despite what voters tell pollsters about negative ads.
December 19th, 2007 at 12:40 pm
Steve (#40) . . .
McCain has been the benefactor of no attention from other campaigns because he has been irelevant. Now that he’s relevant he is an easy target to take out.
You are exactly correct.
December 19th, 2007 at 12:41 pm
Negative adds work when they are TRUE. Huckabee is soft on crime, soft on taxes and soft on immigration.
December 19th, 2007 at 12:45 pm
Fred needs to start attacking Huck in Iowa frontally. Huck’s fall in Iowa would make Fred viable in Iowa. I think Fred realistically wants a 1) ROmney, 2) Huck, 3) Fred fisnish in Iowa.
Hopefully Fred and Steve King will hit Huck on the campaign trail and in ads too.
That’s his only way back to southern strength and a shot at SC/FL.
If Huck wins Iowa then he stays relevant through into SC despite expected poor showings in NH and MI.
December 19th, 2007 at 12:51 pm
MWS (58),
C’mon man. Huck and all his supporters were trying to skate through his surge with people only seeing the good side fo Huck and not knowing his shaky record.
QuacknHack in #60 is correct about the ads working when they’re TRUE.
And they’re about the nicest “attack ads” I’ve ever seen (even compliments Huck and gives him air time for his pro-life, pro-marriage record).
I’m detecting some sour grapes about not being able to skate through without scrutiny. Don’t forget that Hucks been benefiting from Push-Polling in IA,NH, SC, FL and that other candidates are being attacked thusly.
Also, ROmney’s had very distorted “swift-boat”-like ads run against him by pro-gay agenda and pro-choice groups in the early states for a while now. He’s been hit by attack ads in a harsher way than any other candidate.
December 19th, 2007 at 12:52 pm
61 should have said that: “Huck’s fall in Iowa would make Fred viable in SOUTH CAROLINA again”.
December 19th, 2007 at 12:54 pm
Romney is proving that he can execute a plan…thus far, everything is going according to plan. Huck has made Iowa relevant again, giving Mittmentum and has a solid lead (outside a single new poll) in NH, tied in SC and rising in MI, NV, and FLA.
December 19th, 2007 at 12:56 pm
I’m not disputing this survey except that the Iowa caucus is very difficult to poll. Like I said earlier today whomever leads the Des Moines Register poll is my pick to win.
I’d not be surprised if Romney won Iowa by 5-10% and I’d not be surprised if Huckabee did the same.
December 19th, 2007 at 1:03 pm
Mitt’s ads were neither negative, nor attack, they were purely comparison and true.
December 19th, 2007 at 1:05 pm
Econ,
Way to cover your bases…..
December 19th, 2007 at 1:18 pm
#39 – gee, this guy Huckabee is so much like Clinton, it makes me think that they are fraternal twins – separated at birth. They are both from Hope, right? Weird.
December 19th, 2007 at 1:29 pm
Erik (#17) Unfortunately, many of us suspect we won’t know which way the race goes until after SuperTuesday. Some of us do think the race will not be clear all the way to convention in September. So, we may still not know anything after a couple of primaries.
December 19th, 2007 at 1:32 pm
#58 – MWS – it’s not that the ads are negative — it’s that they are revealing the truth about Huckabee.
What I’d really like to see is an ad about Huckabee’s fake theology degree and how he’s always bragging about credentials he doesn’t have.
But he sure did learn a lot from that televangelist he dropped of seminary to work for — and by the way, he did stay at the Holiday Inn last night!!
December 19th, 2007 at 1:49 pm
If I were McCain, I would start pushing hard in Iowa again. He is in line right now for a second place finish in New Hampshire, and this poll places him third in Iowa. If he can hold those positions, he has those two famous tickets punched for the nomination.
Iowa is going to be problematic. He has a history of snubbing them going back to 2000. Compound that with the fact that Fred Thompson is making his last stand there, going for an all-out push. If McCain wants that third place Iowan ticket, he is going to have to fight Fred for it.
December 19th, 2007 at 1:51 pm
#52,
If you want to make a quick buck on Intrade, now is the time to short Huckabee stock. Because, you know what’s coming, the Huck-a-b… nah, I can’t say it like Abe does…
December 19th, 2007 at 2:07 pm
Boy every candidate is doing TERRIBLE but Romney
1. Huck is starting his Huck-A-Bust (as Abe Predicted)
2. Guliani is crashing and burning in ALL polls.
3. Fred is as lazy as ever.
4. McCain is still McCain (terrible candidate but the media darling)
The only person who is maintaining his poll numbers is Romney still high 20’s in IA low 30’s in NH tied for first in SC and climbing in FL seems like the other candidates are trying to hand Romney the nomination.
(porobably why Metro does not post as much. All his STUPID predictions are turning out to be wrong).
December 19th, 2007 at 4:30 pm
Man, am I crazy or is Huck winning in Iowa?
December 19th, 2007 at 9:32 pm
You’re only crazy if you’re not looking at the trends, an 11% drop in that short of a time is scary for any candidate.