The Candidates
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- Rudy Giuliani 25% (25%)
- Mike Huckabee 17% (4%)
- Mitt Romney 15% (13%)
- John McCain 12% (12%)
- Fred Thompson 6% (12%)
- Duncan Hunter 3% (3%)
- Ron Paul 3% (4%)
- Undecided 18% (22%)
Survey of 439 likely Republican primary voters was conducted December 10-17. The margin of error is +/- 5.7 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 11-21 are in parentheses.
December 20th, 2007 at 11:21 am
……
December 20th, 2007 at 11:22 am
huckaboom again
December 20th, 2007 at 11:23 am
Huck still on the move. After Iowa, Huck will rise in these states as well.
December 20th, 2007 at 11:27 am
Giuliani endorsed by NH paper….
http://www.fosters.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071220/GJOPINION_01/360921283
December 20th, 2007 at 11:29 am
is that a well known paper in NH?
December 20th, 2007 at 11:30 am
Least important paper in NH.
December 20th, 2007 at 11:32 am
have other papers in NH endorsed candidates yet?
December 20th, 2007 at 11:33 am
ray – how cold is it in NH? I’m thinking it is cold here in AR today at 60.
December 20th, 2007 at 11:39 am
So much for Rudy’s firewall, eh? Wasn’t he supposed to roll in California?
http://www.political-buzz.com/
December 20th, 2007 at 11:42 am
J. Martin on Rudy’s endorsement:
Rudy gets a much-needed NH endorsement
You may not have heard of it, but plenty of people in New Hampshire read the Foster’s Daily Democrat.
And today they’re endorsing Rudy.
Despite the name, the Daily Democrat is the more conservative of the two dailies serving the southeast corner of the state. That the Portsmouth Herald (the more liberal-leaning one) is backing McCain will surely be noted by Team Rudy.
Newspaper endorsements, of course, mean about as much as other endorsements (i.e. not much) but it’s an important sign of local validation at a time when Giuliani’s camp could use some good news.
December 20th, 2007 at 11:47 am
This Poll is from Dec 10-17th. Huck-a-boomers might want to hold off on their exuberance.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/iowa/republican_iowa_caucus
Dec 10th was the day of polling that Rass had Huckabee up by 16% over Romney in Iowa (at a whopping 39%. It was the peak of the Huckaboom. Now, just one week later in the Rass Iowa poll on 12/17 (day of polling) Huck had lost 11% and was only 1% above Romney.
I think time is working against Huckabee (or the fact that he can’t hide his record now that he’s up to major scrutiny.)
December 20th, 2007 at 11:55 am
Jeff,
Can we get an actual date for the Huckaboom? That way we know which polls to disregard.
December 20th, 2007 at 12:03 pm
um, dudes, dont look now but romney is third in iowa behind mccain. does it come as a surprise to anyone that it’s ARG?
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/iarep8-714.html
December 20th, 2007 at 12:06 pm
A whole bunch of evangelical pastors organized a Huck night here in Southern California last month. The evangelicals definitely know who he is. The IRS is even going after a couple of California pastors for promoting Huck with church resources. The pastoral network gave way to a quick rise here, as well as everywhere. Huck, however, does have a real ceiling everyhwere. The evangelical community out here is not that huge, so his support will not continue to grow. Huck hit all of the evangelical blogs and email lists all at once in an attempt to create momentum, but he still doesn’t get much support from non-evangelicals. Even his evangelical support is dropping, which tells me that I was worng to assume that they would all blindly vote for him in spite of his record.
December 20th, 2007 at 12:08 pm
Oh good, Romney’s expecatations should certainly be lowered asa result of this poll, sampo. He’ll be lucky to get 3rd place coming out of Iowa. Anything better than 3rd will be a huge surprise.
December 20th, 2007 at 12:09 pm
Michael,
Huckaboom happened on Dec 5th at 2PM. Huck was sitting under a fig tree and saw a vision of Jesus who told him that his mission on earth was to lower expectations for Romney ahead of his inevitable win in the Iowa caucus.
December 20th, 2007 at 12:09 pm
#14, The notion that all of Huckabee’s support is evangelical is ludicrous.
December 20th, 2007 at 12:10 pm
McCain is tied for first in NH!!!!
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/nhrep8-713.html
December 20th, 2007 at 12:10 pm
As I said yesterday, you have to wonder if all of these organizations are even polling in the same state.
Quite bizarre.
December 20th, 2007 at 12:12 pm
It seems McCain has caught his second wind. I have said for a while Huck/Mcain 08
December 20th, 2007 at 12:12 pm
McCain is nobody’s wingman!
December 20th, 2007 at 12:13 pm
He will be.
December 20th, 2007 at 12:15 pm
New Iowa, New Hampshire Polls
From American Research Group:
Iowa:
GOP: Huckabee 28, McCain 20, Romney 17, Giuliani 13
Dems: Clinton 29, Obama 25, Edwards 18
New Hampshire:
GOP: Romney 26, McCain 26, Giuliani 16, Huckabee 11, Thompson 4, Paul 4
Dems: Clinton 38, Obama 24, Edwards 13 The Page, 11:29 AM
ROMNEY IS IMPLODING…
December 20th, 2007 at 12:15 pm
listen to romney’s broad appeal rub off on andrew sullivan:
As in when he was figuratively pro-gay and pro-choice, I suppose. He really is an almost fathomless bullshit artist. I guess that’s what it takes to keep the GOP somehow together. And the awful truth is: if Clinton is the Democratic nominee, it may be enough.
December 20th, 2007 at 12:15 pm
This early state reminds me of a tug-of-war in which only one strong guy is trying to pull about 8 guys on the other end of the rope. Pretty tough to do, even when they are pansies!!
December 20th, 2007 at 12:20 pm
Hey Spamo, since you are the king of spam and thread jacks smearing other candidates, I’d like your take on this Drudge Report claiming that your man Johnny Mac is:
“personally pleaded with NY TIMES editor Bill Keller not to publish the high-impact report involving key telecom legislation before the Senate Commerce Committee, newsroom insiders tell the DRUDGE REPORT.”
Gotta love Drudge. How does he get this stuff anyway?
http://www.drudgereport.com/flashnyt.htm
December 20th, 2007 at 12:21 pm
It’s ARG folks . . . may be right, may be way off.
McCain in 2nd in IOwa? Please excuse me while I do that cough/explicative routine.
That is not an accurate poll if that is what it’s showing.
December 20th, 2007 at 12:21 pm
24: That reminds me of what sort of moral fiber it takes to make such a shake-your-hand-and-stab-you-in-the-back kinda guy.
December 20th, 2007 at 12:22 pm
This is an ARG poll, which had Giuliani behind Romney by 1 in Iowa on 9/29. We see how that played out didn’t we??!!
December 20th, 2007 at 12:24 pm
Here is a recent WSJ – NBC poll showing Romney & Giulaini tied @ 20% each.
This race is wide open. I still like Romney chances.
December 20th, 2007 at 12:29 pm
Iowa, thank you for posting the news about the Rudy endorsement. As for you others, if you want to support a candidate who lives in THE REAL WORLD, stop your ignorance, and support Rudy.
December 20th, 2007 at 12:33 pm
Let me pose this question. With the race on a national level basiaclly evening out, and the early states like IA and NH turning into neck and neck races, does this make the 3 tickets from IA and 2 from NH more of an indicator as to who will gain the momentum headed into Super-Tuesday? I have heard a few people dismiss that theory of 3 tickets/2 tickets, but doesn’t the tightening of the race make that a more probable theory? If it does, that makes either Romney or McCain the favorite headed into SC and FL doesn’t it? Just curious to see everyone’s thoughts on that.
December 20th, 2007 at 12:37 pm
Its possible McCain has caught Romney after the double newspaper endorsement and the Lieberman nod, but the question is always whether the bump will fade. It is nevertheless clear that McCain is a legitimate contender again.
December 20th, 2007 at 1:01 pm
[...] The polls have been getting closer; However, I would be shocked if they actually change. I’ve lived in California most of my life and California is typically not in play. A change in the vote for California would not have effected 2004 or 2000 or etc, etc, etc. California is and has been considering breaking of its electoral college vote. In primaries prior to 2008 the nominations have already been selected before California has had its elections. So the norm is “who are the nominations this time?” not “which candidate do you want to nominate?” [...]
December 20th, 2007 at 1:03 pm
#33 – I think there is no doubting that McCain is a contender, and I think that he will make this a race. His rise in the polls recently has to have Rudy feeling VERY worried. A lot of Rudy’s support would shift to McCain if people perceive that Rudy has less of a shot than McCain.