The Candidates
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- Rudy Giuliani 20% (33%)
- Mike Huckabee 19% (8%)
- John McCain 19% (17%)
- Mitt Romney 11% (8%)
- Fred Thompson 10% (12%)
- Ron Paul 3% (3%)
- Duncan Hunter 2% (3%)
- Don’t Know 13% (13%)
Favorable / Unfavorable / (Net)
- John McCain 69% (63%) / 19% (20%) / (+50%)
- Rudy Giuliani 62% (73%) / 25% (20%) / (+37%)
- Mike Huckabee 46% (33%) / 15% (9%) / (+31%)
- Fred Thompson 45% (55%) / 17% (15%) / (+28%)
- Mitt Romney 46% (42%) / 23% (21%) / (+23%)
Regardless of how you plan to vote, I’d like you to tell me whether each of these words or phrases better describe Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, John McCain, or Mike Huckabee.
Strong leader
- Rudy Giuliani 36%
- John McCain 23%
- Mike Huckabee 9%
- Mitt Romney 8%
- Fred Thompson 5%
Has the right experience
- Rudy Giuliani 28%
- John McCain 26%
- Mitt Romney 10%
- Mike Huckabee 9%
- Fred Thompson 4%
Strong moral character
- Mike Huckabee 23%
- John McCain 20%
- Mitt Romney 17%
- Rudy Giuliani 11%
- Fred Thompson 5%
Survey of 315 registered Republicans was conducted December 18-19. The margin of error is +/- 6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 13-14 are in parentheses.
General Election Match-Ups
- John McCain 47% (45%)
- Hillary Clinton 42% (46%)
- John McCain 44%
- Barack Obama 40%
- Hillary Clinton 47%
- Mike Huckabee 38%
- Barack Obama 44%
- Mike Huckabee 35%
Survey of 900 registered voters was conducted December 18-19. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 13-14 are in parentheses.
December 20th, 2007 at 3:07 pm
Wow! looks like the Rudy implosion isn’t just a part of Rasmussen’s imagination afterall.
December 20th, 2007 at 3:08 pm
How long has it been since a single poll showed McCain within 1 point of the lead – a poll that wasn’t rassmussen.
December 20th, 2007 at 3:12 pm
I think Huck will continue to dominate and McCain will pick up Giuliani support.
December 20th, 2007 at 3:13 pm
Why is Tancredo holding off? Is he talking to someone about an endorsment?
December 20th, 2007 at 3:14 pm
Even though ROmney is up 3 points on this poll, Fox polls havs always had him way lower than any other poll. Does anyone know why?
December 20th, 2007 at 3:15 pm
I wouldn’t call 19% domination but I do agree that McCain will take support from Rudy.
December 20th, 2007 at 3:15 pm
Huck dominate? Look at Hillary dominating Huck.
December 20th, 2007 at 3:15 pm
Rudy got sick after his pollster showed him these numbers yesterday.
Huckabee is the front-runner and if he had $10 million in the bank I would say the nomination was his. As it stands, I’d say he’s a little better than 50/50.
December 20th, 2007 at 3:16 pm
Nice tancredo backs Mitt! I bet steve king is feeling a little silly.
December 20th, 2007 at 3:17 pm
Aron, I assume the “900 registered republicans” for the general election is a mistake.
December 20th, 2007 at 3:18 pm
Tancredo just endorsed Romney.
December 20th, 2007 at 3:18 pm
#5
Romney and Huckabee were in the same place in the last poll (8%), if they “under-poll Romney” then they also must “under-poll” Huckabee.
December 20th, 2007 at 3:18 pm
#3 – Huck’s movement is coming almost completely from Giuliani-converts. Seems like those who favor the frontrunner now think there’s a new frontrunner in town.
December 20th, 2007 at 3:20 pm
#8, He will at least have most of that by Iowa.
December 20th, 2007 at 3:22 pm
Where is Jeff?
We will have to make sure this poll is situated in the right time frame to be a valid poll for Huckabee.
December 20th, 2007 at 3:22 pm
With the Tancredo endorsement going to Romney, what amount of support did he have there in IA? And do you think that support will shift to Romney along with Tancredo?
December 20th, 2007 at 3:23 pm
According to the Des Moines Register, Tancredo carried 6% in the most recent poll there.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071220/NEWS/71220020/1001
December 20th, 2007 at 3:23 pm
I just checked the intrade numbers Romney’s withing about four points of Rudy now.
December 20th, 2007 at 3:25 pm
Tancredo had negligible support and I am being told that Romney has agreed to help retire Tancredo’s campaign debt.
December 20th, 2007 at 3:26 pm
Axel,
Re #10
Thanks for catching that typo…
December 20th, 2007 at 3:26 pm
Jared,
I think his average there was a bit lower than that.
December 20th, 2007 at 3:26 pm
#12
The 8% for Huckabee was generally supported by the other polls at the time, but the 8% for Romney was generally lower than the other polls (as the 11% is now).
December 20th, 2007 at 3:26 pm
The important thing to do now is to be in a good position to get all the voter from fallout from the Huckabust happens( if one happens) McCain might just be in that position.
December 20th, 2007 at 3:28 pm
#21 – That may be the case, but one would have to agree that at this point in IA, even 1-2% could make all the difference.
December 20th, 2007 at 3:29 pm
Jared,
His support was less than Ron Paul. Ron Pauls RCP average is 6.2%.
December 20th, 2007 at 3:30 pm
Unless we use Intrade like Metro. Huck 66.5, Mitt 24.1, Thompson 5.5, McCain 1.1
December 20th, 2007 at 3:31 pm
sounds just great,,,, President Mike “Jimmy Carter” Huckabee……all we need, another preacher in the WH
December 20th, 2007 at 3:31 pm
Why is Giuliani still the top in the Power Poll? Is it not updated now that we are so close to the elections?
With how poorly he is doing in early states and his falling national polling, I can’t think of any advantage he has over everyone else (Romney, Huckabee, McCain, even Fred Thompson).
All he has is a lot of money, which Romney obviously has as well.
December 20th, 2007 at 3:38 pm
#28, They should use numbers for the power rankings, not speculation.
December 20th, 2007 at 3:52 pm
#29
What numbers are you referring to? National polls. Which polls do you go by then.
No point in calling it a “Power ranking” if it is simply their polling data.
December 20th, 2007 at 4:15 pm
Fran,
Look at the explanation for the rankings. They are based on the polls.
December 20th, 2007 at 4:38 pm
This whole McCain surge seems unwarranted. What is the reason for any kind of McCain surge?
It seems to be manufactured by the MSM to me.
December 20th, 2007 at 4:44 pm
#31
Are you referring to http://race42008.com/category/power-rankings/ ?
I don’t see anywhere that says they are directly linked to polls.
I must be thick headed, where does it say which poll it is tied to?
December 20th, 2007 at 4:55 pm
Hello, all – (McCain-site publisher)
Thoughts-
#2 John Mark – on your question on how long it’s been since a non-Rasmussen poll showed McCain in the lead (presumably within a statistical tie). I’ll exclude ARG polls, too, since they always overestimate his support-
Quite a while. Six months, in fact. (In other words, before the campaign imploded in the wake of the 2nd qtr fundraising period ending on June 30). The last time any non-ARG poll showed McCain in a tie for the lead was:
Cook/RT – June 30 (!) – that showed him and Rudy at 20 apiece, 14% Fred, 10% Mitt…
http://www.pollster.com/08-US-Rep-Pres-Primary.php
#16 Jared/#19 Axel – on Tancredo’s endorsement… the idea that Mitt would pick up the campaign’s debt seems plausible (obviously, they can afford it). However, by coincidence, the FEC announced today what all seven candidates on both sides were eligible for in matching $$$ – Tancredo would have received $2.145 million, if he’s willing to take them…
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071220/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_money_1;_ylt=AildZ7754O83hkrmetZ0LFVh24cA
I doubt that he’s got that much support in Iowa, anyhow (Pollster doesn’t even bother to chart it)
http://www.pollster.com/08-IA-Rep-Pres-Primary.php
On the questions per the power rankings:
Even if I were permitted to unilaterally set them, I don’t even know where I’d place anyone…
December 20th, 2007 at 4:56 pm
Why is no one discussing the favorable/unfavorable ratings given by Republican voters? Romney has the worst unfavorables of any of the candidates and this is coming from Republicans. I think the Romney fans who dominate this website are living in their own little bubble of existence and losing touch with the real world. Nominating Romney may make his fans happy, but it will be a disaster for the party and other Republicans who will be dragged to defeat having him at the top of the ticket. Please…do we want to win or not? Let’s look at the big picture.
December 20th, 2007 at 5:09 pm
PAconservative,
Don’t worry, Bill Kristol is discussing what you and I recognize as a significant development over at The Weekly Standard:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/CampaignStandard/2007/12/kristol_the_mccain_scenario_co_1.asp
December 20th, 2007 at 6:07 pm
Let’s see. If we have primaries today (using RCP average here), Huckabee grabs Iowa with Mitt closes by and McCain third. Then in NH, Mitt wins with McCain as runner-up and Huckabee in fourth place. Then what happen afterward, anyone? Would Michigan goes to Mitt/McCain (with either one on top)? And would Huckabee survive by the time SC comes around, with two loses?
In any case, I do not see how Rudy could survive Florida. But then, he should not feel too bad. He did say if he had not run, he would be very active on behalf of McCain. Looks like he would get this one right.
December 20th, 2007 at 7:12 pm
HECK YA. Beautiful numbers by the JMak!
AND the RCP averages say he’s winning the general to Clinton AND OBAMA. Nobody else is even close!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html
December 20th, 2007 at 11:58 pm
Can you say “three way race”? I think it is going to be one, and that the states will follow suit. It has appeared to be trending that way, nationally at least, for several weeks, and this poll only confirms that. We’ll have Huckabee, Giuliani and McCain – and then you’ll have (at least in the minds of the electorate) an ideological spectrum of choices within the republican party.