Looks like the McCain Surge is the real deal, folks.
SurveyUSA South Carolina GOP Primary
- Mike Huckabee 28% (30%)
- Mitt Romney 18% (19%)
- John McCain 16% (10%)
- Fred Thompson 15% (18%)
- Rudy Giuliani 12% (13%)
593 people were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the 01/19/08 Republican Primary. The margin of error was 4.1% and the survey was conducted between 12/17 and 12/18.
December 20th, 2007 at 5:25 pm
It does indeed.
If he was well funded (not taking matching funds), I would think he was the favorite.
He still isn’t any worse off than any of the other candidates at this point.
This race is crazy right now.
Things change by the hour.
December 20th, 2007 at 5:25 pm
Wow, the McCain surge is real. What did he do differently the past few weeks? Or is it that more centrists have started paying attention to the race now that caucus time is near?
December 20th, 2007 at 5:28 pm
Abe, Huck a what?
December 20th, 2007 at 5:31 pm
As far as I know, McCain’s matching funds do not kick in until March. Until then, he’s on his own.
Do I have that right?
December 20th, 2007 at 5:31 pm
I still want Romney to win, but if McCain can knock Huck off, I’ll still appreciate it very much, knowing that Republicans stuck with principle not just popularity.
December 20th, 2007 at 5:33 pm
#3 – I believe Abe calls is Huck-A-Bust. Be careful Brett P. Going from 30% to 28%, while not a bust is definitely not a Huck-A-Boom. And I think in all of Abe’s posts he says Jan 3rd, which would commence with IA. To refer to a SC poll as a definitive anything at this point doesn’t make much sense.
December 20th, 2007 at 5:33 pm
#6 thanks for clarifing
December 20th, 2007 at 5:34 pm
#4 – That is true. But from what I understand, candidates can set up bank loans and use the promise of matching funds as collateral for those loans in the interim.
December 20th, 2007 at 5:34 pm
Do we want a nominee who takes matching funds? Doesn’t that mean that they can’t fundraise in the general election?
That would be the kiss of death since the Dems already have a big fundraising advantage.
December 20th, 2007 at 5:35 pm
#7 – Here to help
December 20th, 2007 at 5:35 pm
fran,
He’s not going to take matching funds. He has qualified for them, but has not accepted. His fundraising has shot way up in recent days too. This is a whole new race.
December 20th, 2007 at 5:36 pm
Now “McCain as the potential nominee” will take a serious vetting (something that he’s flown under the radar on for the last few months)
This is just crazy!
December 20th, 2007 at 5:39 pm
Ah, good point Jared. So I guess McCain can go into debt until government subsidies put him back in the black.
The thought of our GOP candidate being legally restricted to spending $50 million (do I have that number right?) in the general election does not warm my heart.
December 20th, 2007 at 5:40 pm
Any good article on matching funds anywhere?
Doesn’t it limit your spending on each state or something?
Where is matching funds 101?
December 20th, 2007 at 5:41 pm
I don’t think McCain has officially decided to take matching funds, but I’m not sure he has much of a choice…..
And….Jared,
Thanks for the Good Clarification…..
of The Official HUCK-A-BUST Theory
And ….Brett,
Is today Jan. 3rd!!!
December 20th, 2007 at 5:42 pm
Drudge says that the NY Times is planning to run their story about McCain tomorrow. Apparently, McCain and his attorneys don’t have enough ammunition to discredit the story.
December 20th, 2007 at 5:44 pm
Greg,
Did you need to post the same thing in two different threads? Drudge’s story is a blatant hit piece. Both McCain, his campaign manager, director and lawyer have all come out to deny the story. Drudge is getting desperate. First it was Huckabee, now McCain.
December 20th, 2007 at 5:44 pm
This is a lot different from what we saw from Rasmussen this week, and Rasmussen has always trended towards Huckabee. I never realy thought that Huckabee was at 30% in South Carolina. I still think this poll is off.
December 20th, 2007 at 5:45 pm
LJ, This is the NY Times, not Drudge. Get over it.
December 20th, 2007 at 5:48 pm
#14 – Here is a link from Politico on matching funds
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1207/7494.html
December 20th, 2007 at 5:48 pm
Don’t worry, now
THE RINO BUST IS COMING
December 20th, 2007 at 5:49 pm
Right. Because the New York Times would never write an unfair and dishonest piece about any Republican candidate.
December 20th, 2007 at 5:50 pm
Interesting note on the matching funds issue. Tom Tancredo was issued funds at $2.1 million. Does that money go to Romney via Tancredo?
December 20th, 2007 at 5:50 pm
From the Politico article:
“On the other hand, McCain, an Arizona senator, has “not made a decision on matching funds,†said spokeswoman Jill Hazelbaker, who added the campaign hasn’t borrowed against anticipated matching funds. “
December 20th, 2007 at 5:51 pm
#23 Romney would not accept it.
December 20th, 2007 at 5:51 pm
Also, fran, here is a good primer on the ins and outs of federal matching funds.
December 20th, 2007 at 5:52 pm
Regarding the whole hit piece in the NY Times. Fair or not, it will have to be dealt with by McCain, and it is not the kind of thing McCain wants to be talking about at this point in the race.
December 20th, 2007 at 5:53 pm
#25 – True. Not that he would need to either.
December 20th, 2007 at 5:54 pm
LJ, McCain is indeed my 2nd favorite candidate. I don’t like the NY Times either. I am just saying that Drudg’e niche is getting these “insider” stories. If NY Times wasn’t planning to run this story (true, or not), there wound’t be anything to report. I wouldn’t attack Drudge over this.
December 20th, 2007 at 5:54 pm
McCain’s been focusing mainly on NH and SC.
December 20th, 2007 at 5:57 pm
#20 & #26
Thanks
December 20th, 2007 at 6:02 pm
Anyone want to guess who made this statement:
“It’s not our goal to just lock people up. … It is our goal to unlock their hearts, minds and souls so while they’re here they can learn the skills that most of us take for granted.”
Well, that of course would be Moses Mike Huckabee
December 20th, 2007 at 6:09 pm
For what it’s worth.
Intrade has Giuliani trading at 27.3 and Romney trading at 26.4 nationally. Next closest is Huckabee trading at 17.0 and McCain trading at 14.7
December 20th, 2007 at 6:11 pm
Jared, I wonder if Metro’s going to own up when Giuliani falls flat on his face because of his poor campaigning.
Live by intrade, die by intrade.
December 20th, 2007 at 6:16 pm
#33 – I was wondering where Metro has been recently. He/she has not been so vocal lately. Maybe trying to sell shares of Rudy.
December 20th, 2007 at 6:26 pm
Metro has done a good job of convincing me that Intrade is the best national poll because people are puttingtheir money where their mouths are. So, why is Huck so low at Intrade if he is really the national leader in the polls?
December 20th, 2007 at 6:26 pm
McCain has had a couple good days, but I don’t see any reason to think it would last. That said, I think it is time for Romney to roll out another couple ads on immigration.
McCain is a good guy, but I really don’t want him as our nominee. For one, I don’t trust him on immigration, for two, I don’t think the GOP can base the next 30 years off a McCain Presidency.
December 20th, 2007 at 6:30 pm
As much as I think McCain is a good guy, I see him as a VP type. I think his diplomatic skills would hurt us in certain cases. His “ready, fire, aim” approach would not be good for the economy. The economy, as ususal, is quickly becoming the big issue. McCain is not strong for the economy. I don’t want to use this term too loosely, but he is a bot of a one-trick pony. I want somebody that is strong across the board.
December 20th, 2007 at 6:33 pm
Maybe Metro is in here by a different name, vieing for a different candidate. Rudy’s Intrade numbers are falling.
December 20th, 2007 at 6:39 pm
I like and respect McCain for a lot of reasons. I for one, have heard him say regarding many issues, “we were wrong”. Issues such as the initial strategy in Iraq, the recent amnesty bill, McCain/Feingold, etc. His style also grates on me a little bit as the, “I know more than you cause I have been around the longest” really rubs me the wrong way. While true, at age 71, he has been here for a long time, but I think he would make a better Secretary of Defense than POTUS.
December 20th, 2007 at 6:42 pm
[...] (h/t Race42008) [...]
December 20th, 2007 at 6:43 pm
Jared,
Really? The last I heard, McCain was railing against the Supreme Court for overturning the provision of McCain-Feingold which forced free speech blackout periods prior to elections.
I’ve heard him say that the law didn’t work out as well as he’d hoped…but that really sounds like him regretting that he didn’t clamp down on 1st amendment rights more effectively.
December 20th, 2007 at 6:48 pm
#42 – Good point, I may have misspoke. But my point was that he seems to have been involved on the wrong side of some important issues, looking back at things. I guess that is the downside of having been around longer than anyone. His fingerprint shows up on a lot of things both good and bad.
December 20th, 2007 at 6:55 pm
Rudy is going to get a really good pol this week, don’t forget. Oh, and shock and awe is coming over the holidays.
December 20th, 2007 at 6:55 pm
Jared, agreed.
I like him for a few things, most notably his zeal against pork spending. But I’ve just got this impression of the “McCain brand” of legislation…unmitigated disasters, of which McCain-Kennedy, McCain-Feingold, and Sarbanes-Oxley are just a few that come to mind.
December 20th, 2007 at 6:56 pm
Pat Buchanan just said on MSNBC verbatim “If Mitt Romney were a Catholic, rather than a Mormon, I think he’d be rollin’ to the nomination, and if Mike Huckabee were not an evangelical Christian, lets say he were a Presbyterian, and not an evangelical Christian, I don’t think he’d be anywhere.
December 20th, 2007 at 7:18 pm
Illinoisguy
That’s reverse bigotry. The last thing that will win Romney any converts is crying about something he has no control over.
December 20th, 2007 at 7:20 pm
I think the media is getting bored with Huckabee. Time to pump McCain. Thompson’s turn should come up just before the caucuses. The more time we spend chasing our tail the better from their point of view. Poor Romney might go broke making new attack ads to keep up with the latest “threat”.
Right now I don’t think a negative NY Times story is 100% bad news for McCain. A lot of Republicans would see a NYT hatchet job as a badge of honor. Last time the media loved McCain but that didn’t get him too far in the primaries. Also, reminding people he is still in the race is a good thing.
December 20th, 2007 at 7:49 pm
Not crying Tommy, Mitt will win this thing, but had to be a much superior candidate to do it.
December 20th, 2007 at 8:54 pm
I love to see Romney people all nervous, its so funny. Did they actually think a Mormon from liberal Mass would be nominated by the GOP. HA!HA!
December 21st, 2007 at 6:26 am
Very good news for Giuliani. Means his “Northerner transplants” in SC in the North Charleston area are sticking with him. He’s got very steady numbers, 12, 13.
There are Pro-Choice Republican voters in South Carolina too. And looks like they’ll be backing Rudy.