- Mitt Romney 34%
- John McCain 27%
- Rudy Giuliani 11%
- Mike Huckabee 9%
- Ron Paul 9%
- Fred Thompson 4%
- No Opinion 5%
Second Choice
- Rudy Giuliani 27%
- Mitt Romney 20%
- John McCain 19%
- Mike Huckabee 11%
- Ron Paul 5%
- Fred Thompson 4%
Regardless of which candidate you support, who do you think has the best chance of beating the Democrat in November?
- Mitt Romney 40%
- Rudy Giuliani 27%
- John McCain 17%
- Mike Huckabee 4%
- Ron Paul 2%
- Fred Thompson 2%
Survey of 477 likely Republican primary voters was conducted December 17-19. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.
December 21st, 2007 at 12:52 am
Would like it to be a double digit lead for Romney . . . but I’ll take a 7% lead after McCain’s been riding his endorsement surge. Romney’s support in NH has been rock solid. McCain may be facing more scrutiny once again and may not continue on this surge for long. This race is simply fascinating.
December 21st, 2007 at 12:54 am
I’ve been saying for months that McCain would win New Hampshire, because voters in that state don’t even begin to make up their minds until the last week or so. Apparently Romney’s internal polls are showing independents moving towards McCain in large numbers. He’s rearranged his schedule in order to fit a few more campaign stops into the state.
December 21st, 2007 at 12:57 am
Crosstabs show that ROmney has the highest “certain to support” at 19% of all voters (or 56% of his voters). McCain is second with 15% of all voters certain to support him (or 55% of his voters).
But what I like best is that issues #1 and #2 are immigration and the economy. That bodes very well for Romney (especially following the Tancredo endorsement which has validated Romney’s immigration position far and away over McCain).
December 21st, 2007 at 1:05 am
Wish some issue ads would cme against McCain to remind people that he is simply a 1 issue Conservative
December 21st, 2007 at 1:07 am
So, we’re seeing a two man race develop in both Iowa and NH. Romney’s one of those men in both places. I think that everyone now would have to admit that if Romney wins both races that he’ll be unstoppable.
Any dissenters? (there used to be plenty)
December 21st, 2007 at 1:08 am
I really don’t think that the Huckabites and the McCainiacs fully understand the importance of immigration in this election. Not only do neither of them have a leg to stand on here, they have exceptional negatives. The best they can do against Romney is talk about how a company he hired, didn’t do their due diligence. Laughable, really.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:09 am
ilfigo,
Virtually every piece of journalism in New England must also be a 1 issue periodical because they’re also endorsing McCain.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:09 am
Jeff,
Unfortunately, this seems to be USA Today/Gallup’s first time polling the New Hampshire primary since 2003, so there’s no trends to compare it against. But the one thing we do know is that Mitt Romney has hit his celling in New Hampshire. He’s been polling at mid to low 30’s for months now. But McCain’s not even near his ceiling (he got 49% in 2000) yet. In 2000, two weeks out, independents in NH still overwhelming favored Bill Bradley.
Wait until next week.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:10 am
I think NH voters see that Romney has more fire, more effort, more energy, and is super sharp and that’s why they believe that he has the best chance of beating the Dem nominee.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:14 am
In the beginning, this race was McCain’s to lose, and despite a recent surge, it’s fairly evident he did.
Then Rudy came along and everyone said that he was the one to beat, and he was.
Along the way, Fred Thompson appeared as the conservative saviour, but he didn’t.
Then came Huckabee as the “Christian Leader”, but he wasn’t.
The truth is that Mitt Romney has been the consistent one all along, slowly building his base.
He never gets ruffled. He never gets tired. He just keeps on working, working, working.
Romney is in the best position of all candidates now. Will it be enough? In this crazy race
nothing is certain, except that Mitt will out-hussle, out-work, and out-smart everyone else.
I like his chances.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:15 am
LJ,
Do you think Romney is done Campaigning in NH?
He has the Best Organization in the State of NH, in Iowa too…
This Guy is going to work all of the candidates into the ground and when he is done…
He can take on HRC…..
December 21st, 2007 at 1:18 am
What’s with 40% of people in NH saying Romney has the best shot at beating a Democrat? There is not a single poll (national or state wide) that shows Romney is stronger than Giuliani or McCain. Expect to see Romney’s support erode once people in NH figure that out.
There is a new general election poll out:
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1404
December 21st, 2007 at 1:18 am
I feel for Romney sometimes….
All the Media is against him…. (He’s too conservative)
All the other Candaidates (except Tanc, I guess) can’t stand him…..(They know they can’t compete)
It has been uphill all year and he keeps going….
He never gets a break (or takes a break like Fred)…..
Mitt Will pull out WINS in IOWA and NH!!!!!!
December 21st, 2007 at 1:19 am
Jeff,
Romney would be in a very good position if he won Iowa and New Hampshire, yes. But his campaign would be on life support if he lost them. I do not envy his position because he’s fighting a two-front war. He’s having to divert time and resources to go after McCain in NH, instead of focusing all his attention on Huckabee.
Abe,
Romney can take on Hillary? Why does he turn Alabama into a swing state against her then? (Note: Romney has more name recognition than Huckabee)
December 21st, 2007 at 1:21 am
LJ,
You believe those comparison polls at this point……
They are such a waste of time and money….
December 21st, 2007 at 1:21 am
#12, I’m afraid you have that backwards. NH has been seeing more of Romney (and all the candidates)
than anywhere else. They are the ones who know who the strong candidates are. It’s the rest of the
nation that hasn’t been paying attention that needs to “figure that out”.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:22 am
This ain’t 2000 LJ (with all due respect).
ALL of the Indy’s came over to vote for McCain over Bush in 2000 because Gore was essentially unopposed (and he was the clear “Maverick”).
The same poll here showed Barak and Hillary are in a dead heat on the Dem side (32% each). Since conventional wisdom says that the Dems have the inside track to the white house this year they Indy’s will definitely want to weigh in on that tightly contested race over the GOP race. That doesn’t bode well for McCain.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:23 am
And if you had to pick a Guy who could work harder and do more in both IA and NH….
They everybody else….it is Mitt….
You have to be impressed with how much retail campaigning the Guy does….
December 21st, 2007 at 1:24 am
I meant “Then” everybody else…
December 21st, 2007 at 1:25 am
Jeff Fuller,
“Crosstabs show that ROmney has the highest “certain to support†at 19% of all voters (or 56% of his voters).”
Now that would be a big dropoff from Iowa- where ARG shows Romney with a full 98% of his voters definite.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:25 am
Jeff, Great Point….
December 21st, 2007 at 1:25 am
…..in case it didn’t come through with the winking, smiling icon, #20 was a sarcastic jab at the earlier Iowa ARG poll
December 21st, 2007 at 1:27 am
Jeff,
Well, Hillary’s polling much better in Iowa this week than last week. And if she wins there then she’ll win NH. In which case, lots of independents will just cross over to the GOP. But even if Obama wins IA, McCain has built up such a had of steam that he’ll top Romney as long as he loses Iowa.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:28 am
Are we at the 2 WEEK mark to IOWA?….Yes, I believe we are….
December 21st, 2007 at 1:28 am
E Dogg,
What’s with 40% of people in NH saying Romney has the best shot at beating a Democrat? There is not a single poll (national or state wide) that shows Romney is stronger than Giuliani or McCain. Expect to see Romney’s support erode once people in NH figure that out.
It’s called they really know him. The dude stands up and stands out under close scrutiny. See my comment #9
December 21st, 2007 at 1:28 am
MWS . . . good point
LOL!
December 21st, 2007 at 1:30 am
Jeff,
I think you are mostly right in #17 (though Gore had some early drama with Bradley in 2000).
While independents looks like they will be lighter than usual this year (unless Hillary surges), there is a wildcard with Rudy’s retreat. Does his support erode further? If so, where does it go? My guess is not to the guy who was cat fighting with Rudy in the debates. Do many Rudy supporters throw a “calculated” vote at McCain, hoping to force Romney out?
December 21st, 2007 at 1:31 am
Jeff,
Not to mention that McCain was simply a “maverick” in 2000. Since then, he has pissed all over his party. That won’t be forgotten.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:33 am
LJ . . . I think you’re suffering from wishful thinking. No matter how Iowa ends for the Dems there are a lot of left-leaning Indy’s that will vote in the Dem primary.
They had nothing to do in 2000 and so the NH and MI indy’s wanted to “Stick it to the man” by voting against the GOP establishment candidate. That ain’t gonna happen this year.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:34 am
Jeff,
I’d like to get your thoughts on Buchanan’s handicapping:
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/staticarticles/article59313.html
I think he’s spot on.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:37 am
MWS,
I love your theory of the “calculated” vote switch.
I’ll give you another one, that I think holds up far better than that. I think that voters want to vote for the candidate that they decide to vote for. They don’t want that opportunity taken away from them and, even if it means that their guy loses, they’ve made their statement at least once.
So, short of Rudy dropping out (which I can’t imagine him doing before NH), Rudy’s votes aren’t going anywhere except to Rudy. Once they’ve decided, that is. Anything can happen between now and then.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:37 am
Jeff,
I wonder how you explain that Detroit News poll last week that showed McCain leading in Michigan when you included independents and Democrats in the poll?
Also, Bradley and Gore were tied in NH up to a week and a half before the primary, but the fact that independents broke from Bradley in favor of McCain put Gore over the top.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:37 am
There is no question that McCain is surging in NH, even if we through out ARG. It would appear that it is coming from Rudy’s hide. If Rudy continues to fade in NH following his retreat, I’d have to think that that helps McCain even more.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:38 am
Immigration and economy being the top issues in NH makes it a potential disaster for McCain. All it’s going to take is some nice issue ads, and Romney’s got enough resources that McCain will just feel like a speed bump.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:40 am
Irish,
I agree with you on the whole in #31, and found the early explanation here of Huck’s Iowa surge as Rudyites “calculating” to be nonsense. However, might a small % consider a vote for McCain to be a proxy vote? I don’t think it will be many, but in a tight race, it might mean something.
At any rate, calculating or not, Rudy’s fall coincides with McCain’s rise, and I would bet that if Rudy continues to fall in NH, McCain will continue to rise- barring explosive scandals of course.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:41 am
Wow! Rudy has two people within two points of him away from being in fifth place. Maybe Rudy will just decide to withdraw entirely from the primary race- to lower expectations of course.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:44 am
I would say that this may be really good news for McCain. Because some of that 11% still voting for Rudy are going to see that Rudy out that its between Rudy and McCain and even more of them may go to McCain. This race may be turned upside down. No it is upside down!
December 21st, 2007 at 1:44 am
MWS,
I don’t think that there will be anything to this NY Times thing for McCain. But, if Jeff and I are right about immigration, here is McCain’s Achilles Heal … Z Visa.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:45 am
My guy Ron, he’s catchin’ on!
December 21st, 2007 at 1:47 am
38, The thing is, McCain has been beat up about immigration I don’t know if there really anymore he can lose from that issue. I don’t think hardly any of his support is coming from immigration hardliners.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:50 am
First – the reason Rudy will slip in NH (and why McCain will benefit) is not due to calculated voting, but because NH voters will not like Rudy for pursuing a late state strategy since they take pride in being the first in the nation primary.
Second – immigration could hurt McCain I agree. But the crosstabs also show voters caring more about a strong leader then specific issues. I would think that most voters already know about McCain and Romney’s view on immigration, but maybe not. It’s really hard for me to guess what the average voter in NH knows or doesn’t know since here we’re all so well informed.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:52 am
Also, I’d like to point out my first argument is the opposite of metro’s argument of Rudy going to the late states and telling them “you moved your primary up to be more involved in this process”.
The difference that Metro misses in my view, is that Iowa/NH voters are much more involved in the political process, and thus NH/Iowa voters might respond to being slighted in the horserace whereas Feb 5th state voters could care (or even know) less.
December 21st, 2007 at 1:57 am
Ajay,
You are absolutely correct on the issue of slighted voters. This is precisely why, despite the little bump, McCain will not do anything of significance in Iowa. We resent what he and Rudy did in the summer to Ames.
December 21st, 2007 at 2:00 am
“We resent what he and Rudy did in the summer to Ames.” Oh get over it. You Iowans get to have all of this attention heeped on you while us in Nebraska may vote after the President has allready been picked.
December 21st, 2007 at 2:01 am
Than again maybe this race will last clear last ten states and our state will be a tie breaker state while you early states watch in envy as you have allready done all you can to effect the race.
December 21st, 2007 at 2:03 am
17, Jeff
Ok, this isn’t 2000. Can it be 1969 when Joe Namath guaranteed victory. McCain guaranteed victory in NH. Time will tell…
December 21st, 2007 at 2:09 am
E Dogg,
As Suzy Kolber might say …
“Mr. McCain, I know Joe Namath and, you sir, are no Joe Namath.”
December 21st, 2007 at 2:10 am
How many voters realize McCain is older than Reagan was at this point in the 1980 race? What impact will that have?
I mentioned that to an independent who liked McCain — and she immediately and forcefully retracted her support upon learning this fact.
December 21st, 2007 at 2:16 am
I don’t know if a lot of people will care too much about the number – its about whether he acts old or not. Fred Thompson looks old and I imagine it hurts him. I don’t know that McCain looks nearly so old.
December 21st, 2007 at 2:18 am
John Mark, Reagan seemed vigorous, too. But people remember how he became mentally slow while in office.
December 21st, 2007 at 2:38 am
We’ll see it could hurt him, it pretty hard to know what will happen in this race. Its an exciting race.
December 21st, 2007 at 2:40 am
BTW Metro do you think Metro and Rudy are now tied since they’re less than a percent apart on intrade.
December 21st, 2007 at 2:41 am
Metro,
If McCain were elected president, he would turn 73 just seven months into his first term in office.
December 21st, 2007 at 2:43 am
#52, I assume you mean Mitt and Rudy.
I put a whole lot of stock into Intrade. Rudy dropped 6 points today and there may be a correction tomorrow. There are not far from being tied. I think Rudy’s a bit undervalued.
You’d never know they were tied the way people on this site think.
The reason is that Mitt’s in danger of losing IA+NH, and that is fatal. Rudy’s position is far more resilient, while Mitt’s is quite precarious.
December 21st, 2007 at 2:52 am
On #54. Metro – do you think if Huck and McCain win the first 2 states that Rudy is still in good shape? I would except McCain to take a good bit of Rudys support with a NH win.
December 21st, 2007 at 2:52 am
*expect not except
December 21st, 2007 at 2:56 am
54, Hah! that would really be someting if you were tied with Romney on intrade, guess its getting late. Personally I view Romney, Huckabee, and Guiliani as being roughly in the same ball park with McCain having a real shot at jumping back into the first tier. People who are writing Rudy off as dead are doing so way too soon. But you can’t deny he’s had it bad recently – well at least I hope you don’t try too. This race is wide open, and I won’t be suprised Huckabee, Romney or Rudy win it. I might be a tad bit suprised if McCain wins, but not too suprised.
December 21st, 2007 at 3:00 am
ajay, yes I think Rudy can use a McCain win in NH to his advantage. These ways:
1. If Mitt loses both IA and NH, he’s dead. Mitt’s supporters like Rudy as their 2nd choice. Big infusion of support!
2. IA: Huck, NH: McCain, MI: McCain –> NV: Rudy. It’s Rudy’s single best scenario for winning a state pre-FL.
3. Rudy can appeal to tax-cutters in the GOP, which is the strongest thing you can run on in the GOP. Huck raised them and McCain nearly singlehandedly sabotaged the Bush tax cuts.
December 21st, 2007 at 3:06 am
Re: 30
I liked the article by Buchanan and happen to think he’s figured it all out nicely. A couple of points:
1 McCain is NOT a one issue candidate. He’s been prolife since he got into politics (unlike our friend Mitt who changes position to suit his audience or Guilani whose prochoice, progay, and anti gun–a weird mix for a republican).
2. McCain is the most fiscally responsible candidate in the race (from either party.) Frankly I would rather have a president who cut spending and taxes then one who raises spending and cuts taxes. You may have enjoyed what happened in this country over the past few years re: fiscal policy, and if you do, go ahead and vote for someone who doesn’t know beans about Washington–I want the BS stopped and John will certainly do it.
3. Military/Foreign policy–Do we really want to elect another governor for some on-the-job training?
4. Doesn’t always follow the pack–Mitts probably a real nice guy, but he doesn’t really stand for anything. What’s scary is, he has no problem changing his opinion while keeping a straight face–it’s surreal.
Pat has it right. If Huck wins in Iowa (which is looking very very likely) and McCain wins in NH (which I think/hope will happen), Mitt’s goose is cooked. What that means for Guiliani is anyones guess.
The rest–they’re just window dressing (especially that windbag Keyes).
December 21st, 2007 at 6:07 am
John Mark, why do you think we Rudy supporters would go to McCain? We’re libertarian Republicans. We come from the “fiscally conservative/socially tolerant” wing of the GOP.
McCain is almost completely opposite: “fiscally centrist/socially conservative.” He has very little to attract us libertarian Rudy supporters.
Romney has much more to offer. Plus libertarian Republican icon Bill Weld has endorsed Romney. Plus, Romney is from the Northeast.
I’m in touch with the dead center of the libertarian Rudy base. There are some Fred Thompson supporters in the group, but by and large almost everyone views Romney as the logical second choice.
Nobody amongst libertarian Republicans is talking about McCain.
December 21st, 2007 at 6:10 am
Metro, I saw one poll where Rudy had actually climbed 6 points in the last couple weeks. It was a statewide. Might have been Iowa.
And in California Rudy is completely unchanged in the numbers.
I think this “Rudy slide” is greatly exagerrated.
Just consider, Gallup says fully 35% of all Republicans are Pro-Choice. Thompson and Romney are moderately Pro-Life, and might have some appeal to Pro-Choice Republicans. But I bet fully 80% of those Pro-Choice Republicans like me, are solidly in the Rudy camp.
And don’t just think we Pro-Choice Republicans are just in New York, NJ, WA, OR and California. Uh, uh. We’re here in Texas too, particularly in Houston and DFW.
When Rudy gets here to Texas, he’s going to find a very warm reception in these parts.
December 21st, 2007 at 7:36 am
It’s amazing that Mitt can stand up against every other candidate trying to take him down in Iowa and NH. Why, because they know if they don’t, their chances are very slim to win the nomination. Mitt is superior in intelligence, experience, work ethic, being presidential, integrity, and being a a ‘three legged stool’ candidate. Like Pat Buchanan said last night on tv, “If Mitt Romney were a Catholic rather than a Mormon, I think he’d be rollin’ to the nomination, and if Mike Huckabee were not an evangelical Christian, lets say he were a Presbyterian, and not an evangelical Christian, I don’t think he’d be anywhere.” Note that this is coming from a Catholic, and not one who is pushing Romney.
Everyone has to admit, he has had to beat a lot of odds. He has had to work harder to overcome the lack of name recognition, the Mormon issue, and the fact that early on the other candidates recognized that he would be tough to beat and acted accordingly. The MSM, including supposedly the more conservative of the cable news channels, Fox News, has been pushing for a more liberal candidate the whole time, namely Rudy. For this guy to be where he is now in the face of all this opposition is a testament of the quality of this candidate.
December 21st, 2007 at 8:28 am
Interesting poll. I think it’s clear that McCain is benefiting from Rudy’s support, though not for the reasons others suppose. Romney still has excellent favorables in NH. Other polls, weeks ago, showed Romney as the second choice of every candidate’s supporters. What happened here is a perfect storm for McCain. Rudy fell off, at the same time McCain got hot. That meant some of his old supporters cast about for another candidate, and they decided to go with the man of the hour. It’s excellent luck for McCain, but I suspect it’s also a perilous position to be in. Because his new supporters like Romney just fine, and many of them would have become Mittheads if it weren’t for the Globe endorsement, the union leader endorsement, and the Lieberman endorsement. So, for McCain, alot hangs on which way the news breaks pre-Iowa. To extent that people are paying attention, it’ll matter. Does McCain have another string of good news (and the Herald endorsement is certainly a bonus), or does he have a bit of negative attention trained on him?
December 21st, 2007 at 8:36 am
Its a bigoted excuse to blame Romney’s lagging polls on his mormonism when he is such a weak candidate. His standing in IA and NH are based on money and his joe smith-come-lately positions. As Tim Russert ably pointed out, Romney has flip-flopped on EVERY issue in this election. Even Anderson Cooper caught him in mid flip on the issue of gays in the military. He opposed Reagan and now embraces him, he supported John McCain’s immigration proposal but now calls it amnesty. He opposed the Bush tax cuts, raised taxes in MA, and now pretends to be a fiscal conservative. And we learned yesterday that he can not distinguish between fact and fiction. Romney’s problem is not his particular beliefs but rather whether he has any core beliefs.
December 21st, 2007 at 9:03 am
You’re a bigot Axel!! If Mitt did so poorly answering Russert, then why has he closed a 22 point gap on Giuliani in a single week on intrade? You guys continually throwing that same old flimsy flip flop title out is getting really old!
December 21st, 2007 at 9:38 am
Giuliani is collapsing; its not as if Romney is surging. Indeed, he could very well be out of the race on Jan 4 if he places 3d in IA.
December 21st, 2007 at 9:49 am
Axel, for the 22 point closing, Romney went up 10, Rudy went down 12. If Romney wasn’t going up someone else would have gotten the points, get it? Try supporting your positions occasionally!
December 21st, 2007 at 9:52 am
btw, McCain has just passed Huckabee on intrade.