GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Mason Dixon Iowa GOP Caucus Poll
- Mitt Romney: 27% (20)
- Mike Huckabee: 23% (32)
- Fred Thompson: 14% (11)
- John McCain: 13% (7)
- Rudy Giuliani: 5% (5)
- Ron Paul: 5% (2)
- Duncan Hunter: 1%
This poll strikes me as huge news given that Mason-Dixon is considered one of the best polling firms around. With only a handful of polls left before Iowa, we’re looking at an absolute dead heat.
Update: The Mason-Dixon poll of 400 likely Republican caucus attendees in Iowa was conducted by telephone from Dec. 26-28. The margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points. Also, a few interesting internals: Romney has a +41 favorability rating, while Huckabee has a +23 favorability rating. 78% of Huckabee’s supporters say they’re probably sticking with him, compared to 65% who say they’re probably sticking with Romney. 48% of poll respondents identify as evangelicals, which seems to be about 10% higher then the typical Iowa poll.
December 30th, 2007 at 8:18 am
All the press will focus on is how McCain finished 3rd. 85% of Republicans hate McCain’s guts, but because 15% pull the lever for him on Jan 3, he’s “surging”.
December 30th, 2007 at 8:37 am
Looks good! We just have to turn out the vote now.
December 30th, 2007 at 8:39 am
If Deep Pockets wins IA by 10 points over any rival, he may buy up the rest of the GOP nomination, pandering to the conventional right all the way. Enter Deeper Pockets, stage center.
Whom from the Republican tripod will Mitt betray first to gain traction in the general?
December 30th, 2007 at 8:39 am
Zogby has Huckabee up 1. Still a great improvement. When we look back at this race, Huckabee’s Howard Dean moment came when the campaign took on Rush Limbaugh. Not smart.
December 30th, 2007 at 8:42 am
Romney will have no excuse now for losing, but other candidates will take note that they can’t let their records get distorted by negative ads without responding. McCain is right to attack Romney in NH for that reason.
Iowans lose respect as intelligent voters if they choose Romney after all of his lies and flip-flops.
December 30th, 2007 at 8:42 am
and another:
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1406
December 30th, 2007 at 8:50 am
Anybody hear Hucakbee yesterday defending McCain and Rudy agianst the Romney attacks. Even more proof the guy isn’t in this to win this thing. Why defend another candidate unless you want Vice President?
Hucakbee, should back out tonight and back McCain that would give him a better chance of winning. If he stays in this thing Romney is likely to beat him, time to do the right thing Mike Huckabee, before we end up with the wrong guy as nominee. Romney wills stink, he’s already shown how negative he can get when someone is about to beat him. Romney will be the attack guy from day one, this is bad news for Republicans who are already in deep water with the voters. We don’t want to appear negative.
If Romney loses Iowa and McCain comes in third, that is huge and I predict McCain stays alive to the be the GOP nominee. Don’t forget this is the same John McCain that has wrote off Iowa it is impressive that he has gotten this far.
December 30th, 2007 at 8:51 am
It’s gonna be close . . . but you cannot deny that Huck’s shooting himself in the foot at every opportunity has not been lost on Iowa voters. He’ll have a solid 24-28% on Caucus night due to his hard-core evangelical supporters turning out . . . but whether that is enough to win is yet to be determined.
And IT’S NOT Romney’s “attack ads” (about the nicest contrast ads I’ve ever seen (and I think voters in Iowa are respecting that) that are solely causing this shift . . . heck, pro-abortion and pro-gay rights groups have been running negative TV, radio, and Newspaper ads against Romney for several weeks, and now “TrustHuckabee.com” is getting in on the act.
No, Huck supporters should not blame Romney for his Huck-a-bust in Iowa or elsewhere (as this link confirms)
http://iowansforromney.blogspot.com/2007/12/huck-bust-is-coming.html
The Iowa voters have dated Huckabee, but many are coming back to marry Romney.
December 30th, 2007 at 8:51 am
Huckabee 29%
Romney 28%
McCain 11%
Thompson 8%
Giuliani 8%
Paul 8%
Hunter 1%
Undecided 6%
December 30th, 2007 at 8:52 am
PS . . . no polygamy jokes about my last phrase in comment #8!
December 30th, 2007 at 8:52 am
Please, John, please continue to respond to Romney’s ads in the same way you have been over the last couple of days. The voters in Iowa and New Hampshire need to see you as you really are, not the grandfatherly image you’ve worked to portray.
December 30th, 2007 at 9:07 am
You have to multiply the Ron Paul numbers by 2 at least. That puts him in 3rd place. He will get at least 2nd in Wyoming and 3rd again in NH. This will put him in a good position for Florida because Giuliani will have been beat by Ron Paul several times over by then.
December 30th, 2007 at 9:09 am
I believe at this point that Governor Romney has been the most consistent conservative advocate in this race and the most worthy candidate to claim for himself the mantle of Reagan’s heir.
Its strange how many times history comes full circle. Ronald Reagan was an admirer and friend of George Romney and in some ways modeled his run in 76 on George Romney’s campaign of 68. Now the son of George Romney who helped spark the Reagan revolution can take up the mantle of conservatism’s mighty patriarch and move the nation further to the right by embracing and holding up Reagan’s three-legged stool and not letting it fall apart or get watered down.
December 30th, 2007 at 9:09 am
Ha, thats the funniest thing I have ever heard there is No way Ron Paul will get 3rd place in Iowa.
December 30th, 2007 at 9:14 am
MarkG . . . if your implication is that Mitt is buying the election then I’ll just remind you of Steve Forbes. YOU CAN’T BUY IOWA!!
December 30th, 2007 at 9:15 am
I supposr I must……
And though it is showing up in polls (which is NOT what I wanted)….
THE HUCK-A-BUST is COMING…..JAN. 3RD!!!
Mark My Words!!
December 30th, 2007 at 9:16 am
Dang….”suppose” not “supposr”
December 30th, 2007 at 9:16 am
JL . . . I’d LOVE it if Ron Paul got 3rd in Iowa. Don’t forget that his supporters are ardent and will turn out to the Caucuses. My preferred (semi-realistic) order of finish would be.
Romney
Huckabee
Paul
Thompson
McCain
Giuliani
It’s definitely a race for first between Huck and ROmney and a race for 3rd among everybody else.
December 30th, 2007 at 9:25 am
Romney bought Ames out of petty cash. He can buy Iowa. Experts agree:
Certainly Romney’s money – I suspect that in this last quarter of the year, despite his impressive fundraising, he will be nearly, and perhaps actually, a majority self-financed candidate – allows him to swamp his opponents in terms of the sheer number of airings.
Mitt Romney is pure cynicism in action.
December 30th, 2007 at 9:35 am
As Yogi Berra used to say, “It ain’t over ’til its over”.
December 30th, 2007 at 9:42 am
#13 That was a little sappy, even for me.
December 30th, 2007 at 9:58 am
MarkG
Giuliani had almost as much cash as Romney. If your theory is true, why is he sitting at 5%? Shouldn’t he proportionally be higher? Obama has a ridiculously, enormous war chest. If your theory is true, why is Clinton in the lead by such a wide margin? Why didn’t Forbes make it?
Who are the voters who are ending up with cash in their pocket? Who are the voters that were “bought”?
Advertising and getting your platform and policies and name out there take a tremendous amount of resources, especially when you didn’t start with any notable name recognition. And when you see those ads, you either agree with his political stands or you don’t.
And no one gave Romney his fortune, he made his own. He is who he is, some one who knows what success feels like and how to get there. Do I want Joe Average Beer Belly or Populist Preacher leading this nation? Please no! Give us someone who can take the helm and get somewhere. Give us someone who can listen to many voices, factions and find the best way to bring most together. Romney’s success is his own doing, no help from the media whatsoever. Romney had the most uphill to go. Romney earned his way. Literally. “Slow and steady wins the race”. No surge, no darling of the moment. Consistency - methodical, logical, informed campaigning. And don’t give me the worn-out flip-flop, cliche chant, he has no more flips than any of the other top tier candidates.
Your comments reflect sour grapes and jealousy more than reason.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:08 am
#14 Don’t be surprised if/when Paul does take third. His supporters are ardent and will show up in higher percentages than those for the other candidates. I’m not a Paul supporter by any stretch of the imagination (Romney all the way!), but you do have to admit that Ron Paul supporters have acquired sort of the air of fanaticism about them in their belief that their candidate will win it all. It’s why show show up in such great numbers to straw polls and rallies. Like Jeff, I’d love nothing better to see a third place finish for Paul to knock the legs out from under McCain and Rudy.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:26 am
How’d that work out for him at Ames?
Not very good, I heard every Paul person say how Paul would win Ames, and he got 5th.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:27 am
Shawnie: Giuliani had almost as much cash as Romney.
Rubbish. There is no evidence to support that claim for the Q4. But we are all well versed in the history of Romney raiding his kids’ inheritance to finance his campaign because that’s how they serve their country. We also know that Mitt has spent as much on saturation advertising as any of the leading Dems. It’s only logical to arrive at the conclusion that the money has a very specific source.
The great thing for Mitt is that he can donate millions to his own campaign under the bookkeeping cover of a loan to his own campaign. After he loses the general election, he can simply write off this dud loan as a failed investment. So the boys won’t have to suffer too much in the end.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:34 am
This poll shows that Romney leads in leadership, the GWOT, ability to win, the economy, and taxes. Mason Dixon is one of the 3 best polling outfits in the country, and things are looking good.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:34 am
Mike Huckabee’s lying again about his tax increases on Meet the Press. He’s peddling the nonsense that the people voted on multiple tax increases, including the tax increases for education.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:38 am
Mark G,
Actually, Obama has spent a couple of million dollars more than Mitt in Iowa. Shawnie’s point that money isn’t decisive is perfectly valid. Giuliani spent $3 million on ads in New Hampshire, during which time his numbers actually went down. Mitt is winning this thing because he’s the best candidate. Apparently, you haven’t noticed.
December 30th, 2007 at 11:05 am
Mitt is winning this thing because he’s the best candidate.
He’s actually the worst candidate for the general election, and for the nation. He’s “winning this thing” because he’s telling whoppers about his rivals and embellishing his own past in extraordinary ways. If the GOP falls for that type of Clintonesque prevarication, then the party certainly deserves whatever befalls it.
Dubya was quiet about his big-government agenda but open about his religious intentions. Romney is clear on neither, leaving many to wonder just what Trojan horse agenda might hide behind his taqiyya tactics.
December 30th, 2007 at 11:06 am
10, Can we make jokes about not being able to attend a Mormon wedding?
December 30th, 2007 at 11:20 am
I heard again and again how negative advertising doesn’t work, especially in Iowa. Romney’s numbers have been steadily rising since running his ads against Huckabee.
Are people finally ready to recognize that Romney’s ad weren’t negative?
December 30th, 2007 at 11:22 am
MarkG- he’s proving a point I made months and weeks ago. I said that if and win Romney would win IA and/or NH, the anti Romney bloggers would contend the wins were bought and paid for. As if Romney handed out money at the polls to those who voted for him. Nonsense!!!!!!
Bush had more money than Kerry and, thank goodness too, because he was able to run a better campaign. Huck is broke because for 10 months of 07, he couldnt raise anything for anyone. Even with these past few months, I would bet that his totals mirror the other top tier candidates. Too little, too late for Huck.
December 30th, 2007 at 11:32 am
Husky,
MArkG is playing the class warfare card. Romney who has earned hundreds millions (and billions) from his hard work and business acumen and his guy Guiliani who has only earned 10’s of millions from talking to audiences about 9-11. And poor ole’ Huck who only gets $25,000 every Sunday. It’s all so sad for Mitt to have money when good people like Guiliani and Huckabee struggle to make ends meet.
December 30th, 2007 at 11:36 am
Now, now, fellas. You Rombots were the ones who have long pimped the idea that everyone else in the race may as well give up because Mitt could outspend them. You’ve also claimed that Mitt could then go on to buy the general election.
So don’t start griping now about how this is class warfare.
December 30th, 2007 at 12:22 pm
#34: Romney supporters have been claiming that Romney will win because he can outspend, and that the general election can be bought?
Would you mind backing that up?
#22: You’ve captured something that I’ve been thinking about for a while, but couldn’t put my finger on. Romney’s support is strong because it hasn’t been built on a surge of media attention. The support he has has come from his hard work. He’s put in the time, he’s put in the effort, and yes, he’s put in the money to win this campaign. He’s been down (most notably in IA), but he has never stopped. Expect to see the same thing with Romney as the Republican candidate. He will be attacked, he will take hits, but he won’t give up. Instead, he’ll work hard, he’ll work smart, and he’ll come back to win.
December 30th, 2007 at 12:37 pm
[...] Race for 2008 has some interesting analysis too. [...]
December 30th, 2007 at 6:06 pm
LJ has been hanging out for this poll but it has his man in 4th.
December 30th, 2007 at 9:04 pm
“Romney bought Ames out of petty cash. He can buy Iowa.”
Mark G., you are already preparing for defeat? Still complaining about the straw poll? Oh well.