- Mike Huckabee: 29% (25)
- Mitt Romney: 28% (26)
- John McCain: 11% (5)
- Fred Thompson: 8% (8)
- Rudy Giuliani: 8% (12)
- Ron Paul: 8% (5)
The daily tracking polls, which span December 26, through December 29, include 934 likely caucus–goers on the Democratic side and 867 likely Republican caucus–goers. The margin of error is 3.3 percentage points on the Democratic side, and 3.4 percentage points on the Republican side.
Yet another poll showing a tight race. Incidentally, this is the 5th straight poll that has Paul and Rudy tied exactly. What does a 6th place Iowa finish do to Rudy? Also, Intrade now has Romney and Huckabee at 50.0 and 50.1 respectively. In other words, we might have to invent something more precise than a dead heat to describe this race.
December 30th, 2007 at 9:20 am
The HUCK-A-BUST is Coming….Jan. 3RD!!!!
Mark My Words….
December 30th, 2007 at 9:28 am
Romney leads Iowa on RCP now. Small amount, but he leads again!
December 30th, 2007 at 9:33 am
Jason, given that ARG’s large Romney lead is included in that sample, I’d take that RCP lead with a huge grain of salt. I still consider Huckabee a slight front-runner in Iowa, but there’s no question that polls like the LA Times poll are dated and inaccurate.
December 30th, 2007 at 9:42 am
Mathew,
ARG is a bit of an outlier, but in fairness to them they were the first poll to show gaining and/or tied with Romney in November, and then they were the first poll to show Hucks lead evaporating a couple weeks ago. I am not saying Romney is 9 points ahead but there is a bit of insitutional bias against ARG, and for good reason. But they do get some credit.
December 30th, 2007 at 9:44 am
I can drive to Iowa on Wednesday, and stay through Thursday if someone knows where to go, and if there is something meaningful to do. I’d just like to be where the action is and help if possible.
December 30th, 2007 at 9:46 am
illinoisguy,
email me jasonpbonham at gmail dot com
December 30th, 2007 at 9:48 am
Jason,
In two weeks, ARG has Romney going from 3rd place to 20 points ahead of the 3rd place candidate. That’s stunningly absurd.
December 30th, 2007 at 9:50 am
This is nothing that a superior organization can’t overcome. I think Tancredo’s endorsement will give Romney an extra 1 to 3% boost come caucus day. We just need Huckabee to talk up more foreign policy.
Also with Huckabee close, a victory will help Romney with the expectations game. Looks like many polls are showing that Huckabee peaked too early and is now declining.
Thanks for the poll info, keep them coming.
December 30th, 2007 at 9:54 am
RASMUSSEN Poll National Republican
McCain 17%; Romney 16%; Huckabee 16%; Giuliani 15%; Thompson 12%
December 30th, 2007 at 9:55 am
Romney Team is busy
…..On the organizational front, the Romney advantage here may be overestimated. Republican caucus voters essentially just show up and vote unlike the laborious process on the Democratic side which relies on activists to make the case for their candidate and sway their friends and neighbors. Steffen Schmidt, Iowa State political science professor and caucus guru, agrees that Huckabee trails badly in organizational muscle but concludes he “doesn’t need it since they vote straight out at each caucus.”
December 30th, 2007 at 9:57 am
There is no question who has the momentum in the caucuses. If Mitt were actually 1 or 2 points down, my guess is that Mitt wins comfortably. This, along with the Mason Dixon poll make it clear what is happening in Iowa. Doubt and fear are spreading through the Huckabee ranks…..not a winning combination.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:05 am
Guys,
Here is another, MSNBC has Romney +4%:
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/23940.html
December 30th, 2007 at 10:06 am
cwpete,
That’s the Mason Dixon poll.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:07 am
I think we keep forgetting that Iowa is a caucus. If Ron Paul has more support consolidated in certain winable areas, he could easily beat Rudy. That’s my guess, that Rudy’s small support is spread over the entire state, while Ron Paul might actually win in some precints.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:08 am
Oops – my bad. Looks like that is the same Mason – Dixon poll posted earlier.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:14 am
Colin,
No offense, but your professor is an idiot. It’s hard enough to get elderly and marginal supporters to the polls for elections or primaries, but it’s a good deal harder to get them to turn out to caucuses. Nobody knows exactly how much better Romney’s organization is than Huckabee’s, but there is unanimity that the gap between them is massive. Nobody knows how many points that gap is worth, but my guess is that 5 points is a good rough order of magnitude.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:15 am
bjalder26:
In CO, one has to be a registered Republican to vote in a Republican caucus. I’m not sure how it goes out there in IA, but I’d guess caucus voters will be required to be on the parties registrations lists before voting. If that is true, Ron Paul’s numbers will be low. If this were an open primary like NH, then his numbers will be higher.
I think Paul will draw off Independent vote from McCain in NH primary. I think Thompson will end up 3rd since he is working the state and McCain has completely blown it off placing all eggs in the NH basket.
Who knows? We’ll just have to wait & see.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:17 am
Need that proof read function.
parites = party’s.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:34 am
Huckabee just hit a home run on Meet the Press…the entire interview went great…totally unlike Romney’s stuttering “deer in the headlights” performance.
Goodnight, Mitt. Its time to go home and try to explain to your kids how you spent their inheritance.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:37 am
If Russert went softball on Huck it’s because he wants the weakest candidate to win. I’d like to see some more concensus on how his interview went before declaring it out of the park.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:40 am
I’m watching it now. Beyond lying about his tax increases yet again (hey the people voted for them!) he seems to be doing fine.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:41 am
russert didnt go soft…he tried to lay traps for Huckabee to step in just like he did to Romney…the difference was Huckabee didnt step in them. Romney did.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:44 am
Matthew,
You are retarded. When roads are in such poor condition they are hurting the state’s economy, what is a Governor supposed to do? It’s their JOB. Most would have forced tax increases through…Huckabee put it to the people and let them VOTE for it.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:48 am
Paul you lose all respect of veteran posters from this website when you attack Matt with something as childish as “you are retarded” He didn’t let the people vote on some taxes that he said he did (ie the gas tax–it was never voted on but he lies and says people voted on it) That’s his biggest problem is that he’s a Clintonian at heart.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:49 am
Paul S,
Nonsense. Justify the need for tax increases all you’d like. You’re not going to convince me, but regardless this is a different argument. I’m talking about Huckabee’s continual lies that Arkansans voted for tax increases (they didn’t) and the Supreme Court mandated tax increases for education (it didn’t).
December 30th, 2007 at 10:50 am
Paul S,
That would be plausible, but I’ve made dozens of trips into Arkansas and the roads still suck. Where did the money go? Based on Arkansas history over the course of the last 3 decades, it would seem the voters there are willing to vote for just about anything….or anybody.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:51 am
did those updates really cost $10 billion? I’d be interested in seeing some information on that.
Anyway, even if they did, if Huckabee has to hike taxes 47% to fix the roads, he has no business calling for even an extra penny to send illegal aliens on a free ride to college.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:51 am
Huck has done his homework on Pakistan. Russer tried to get him on the Sunni question but Huck came out ahead in that exchange.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:52 am
I thought Huck did a fair job, but certainly not a good job on MTP. Given what he had to work with as a record he did as good as could be expected. He won’t gain anything from it, that’s for sure.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:53 am
Matthew Miller is an incredibly talented individual and a joy to read, but his disdain for Huckabee has diminished his credibility.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:54 am
I think the damage is done with regards to foreign policy for our Holiday Inn candidate. 5 or 6 gaffes in a row is going to be hard to overcome.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:54 am
Colin, you could tell he struggled, then flipped a coin, and got it right.
December 30th, 2007 at 10:56 am
#16. Dave, I will take an Iowa professor’s word over an internet political junkie babbling on partisan fantasy.
December 30th, 2007 at 11:03 am
Sorry, watched Huckabee on MTP and he was his usual vapid self. He lies that he’s a model of consistency when he says you should not punish children of illegal immigrants one minute and then says ship ‘em all home the next. All he did was push his talking points and try to bash Romney, making himself look small by comparison. You’ll notice that Romney’s ads have been about Huckabee’s public record, not the nonsense like illegal immigrants working on his lawn. What has Romney said about Huckabee’s son and the dog killing? Nothing. What has Romney said about Huckabee’s gazillions of questionable ethical actions as Governor? Pretty much nothing. What has Romney said about Huckabee using born-again Christian conversions as a basis for pardons? Nothing. What has Romney said Huckabee taking gifts like a reverse Santa Claus as Governor? Nothing.
When Russert pointed out the total inconsistency on Huckabee’s statements on what to do with illegal immigration, it’s not that his answer was bad. It’s the reality of his totally inconsistent positions that made him look like a moron. When Russert pointed out that there are millions of gay Americans and their families who Huckabee calls “aberrant and unnatural,” equated also to pedophilia and necrophilia, and that being President includes all Americans, again it made Huckabee’s positions look like he was a moron. He wants to say one thing and “stick by it,” but not have to be held accountable for its obvious implications.
Look, it’s not that Huckabee’s a bad guy. It’s just that he’s wrong on public policy half the time or more and he can’t admit it, and instead of defending his policies he throws out one-liners or blames everybody else.
December 30th, 2007 at 11:09 am
I just finished watching Huck on Meet the Press, and I think he had a perfectly admirable performance, beyond the qualms I’ve stated above. As usual he was cogent on life issues, and he handled the Pakistan questions well. That said, I think it was clearly a softball interview, in comparison to Romney’s grilling. Other then the Pakistan question, the only tough issues were right in Huck’s wheelhouse, and I think this goes to the heart of the MSM’s misapprehension about Huckabee. They’re concerned about the wrong issues. Conservatives don’t care that Mike Huckabee thinks homosexuality is aberrant and unnatural, and MSM questioners are never going to do anything to dissuade his supporters if they’re focusing on those sorts of things. But, conservatives care quite a bit that he granted clemency to 1033 individuals, raised taxes tremendously, raised spending tremendously, took absolutely indefensible positions on immigration in the past, and seems utterly clueless about foreign policy. To the extent that the MSM brings these issues up at all, they do from liberal assumptions. In other words, a question about the “arrogant bunker mentality” quote turns into “tell me examples of Bush administration mistakes. I love when Republicans criticize Bush” instead of “what do you say to the fact the state department has been enormously active in diplomatic enterprises most notably in Korea and to a lesser extent Iran. How is this “arrogance”". They just don’t “get” the problems conservatives have with Huckabee, even if they’re able to intellectualize the disagreements; so the extent of these problems never surfaces during interviews.
December 30th, 2007 at 11:10 am
Colin,
The true credibility test comes on Thursday. We’ll see who’s right….and who’s babbling.
December 30th, 2007 at 11:12 am
i am a veteran poster on this board…the only one, I might argue, who has been right about anything. I told everyone here MONTHS ago that Huckabee would be where he is right now. Have a nice morning.
December 30th, 2007 at 11:22 am
I’ve actually seen some new polls that has Romney ahead by a few points again. Surely Zogby is a better product…
http://www.political-buzz.com/
December 30th, 2007 at 11:22 am
Paul S, when Mitt wins the GOP nomination, it will truly again be mourning in America. B-)
December 30th, 2007 at 11:24 am
Did not watch MTP. Did they ask about Wayne Dumond? Did he get asked about realeasing prisoners because they were “born again”?
December 30th, 2007 at 11:32 am
I think the dynamics of the race in Iowa during this last week are almost unknowable. The question is whether Huckabee, who is smooth as silk on the stump but terrible on half of the issues, will win out over Romney who is less smooth on the stump but solid on most of the issues. While it is unclear whether Romney’s “contrast” ads on Huckabee acquainting folks with his real record, or Huckabee’s recent grilling by the press and conservative media types, is responsible for his shrinking lead, what is clear now is that suddenly he’s gone very negative. Look at the media reports of the last couple of days and think of 2004. Huckabee the popular, nice guy is now spending 25 minutes of his stump speech ripping Romney a new one? Romney, however, is saying nothing at all about Huckabee and is out meeting as many voters as possible, who see a nice, friendly, optimistic, family guy. If Huckabee becomes the sourpuss for the last week and Romney is the sunny optimist, who does this benefit? I think Huckabee has made something of a mistake here . . .
December 30th, 2007 at 11:32 am
Paul S – i hope that was sarcasm … I can think of many posters on here who have been right about many things, even including TLG who predicted the huckster’s rise.
December 30th, 2007 at 11:39 am
The poll is another good sign for Romney in IA. I think its fair to say that just a few weeks ago Huck was ahead in IA by about 10% or more. Now its a dead heat which shows Mitt has momentum and Huck is fading. ADVANTAGE MITT
Its also fair to say that everyone universally agrees that Romneys groundgame is better than Hucks. ADVANTAGE MITT
RCP shows Romneys support around 27-28% since early summer, with only a few exceptions. Clearly that would indicate his true solid support. However Huck steadily was in the high teens and early 20’s. He surge briefly into the 30’s and is now coming back to earth. I see his solid support at 20% or just higher. — ADVANTAGE MITT
anything can happen but I like Mitts chances
December 30th, 2007 at 11:44 am
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html#polls
I think Huck needs IA or he is done. With 2nd, where will he go from here. He hasnt gotten anywhere in NH. MI perhaps, but Mccain and Romney both have a better chance there. SC maybe, but its like IA where he might not beat Mitt there. Huck might well be done on Jan 4th. Too bad for UA, PaulS, MarkG, and other Huck supporters.
Spare me your arguement too that Mitt outspent Huck 20-1. If your guy had been something for longer than 15 minutes, he might have had the money to compete.
Huck, your 15 minutes are almost up.
December 30th, 2007 at 12:04 pm
The biggest news coming from Iowa on Jan. 3, 2008 will be Ron Paul’s third place.
We know for months who will be top 2. The real question is who will be third.
cwpete
“caucus voters will be required to be on the parties registrations lists before voting. If that is true, Ron Paul’s numbers will be low”
You are not involved in RP’s campaign, so you don’t recognize the fact that many Indies and Dems register Reps to vote for RP.
December 30th, 2007 at 12:20 pm
There is a 30 point swing on intrade Iowa this morning, now Romney 50, Huckabee 45.1
There is no doubt Huck is finished if he looses Iowa. The only question is, where will his voters go? They are much more in line with Romney on social issues, but will they be upset that Romney is the one that beat their guy, and maybe vote for McCain as pay back? I hope not! I am happy to see that many of the evangelical voters have moved back To Mitt, in spite of their pastors trying to keep them persuaded God is behind Huckabee. Both Mitt and Fred will support all of the social conservatives every bit as well as Mike would have, but they would give much stronger leadership on foreign policy and fiscal conservatism.
December 30th, 2007 at 12:27 pm
MirekChicago:
Just how successful is the ‘register for Republican for a day’ drive? I’ve always contended that RP’s support & money comes mostly from non-Republican sources. Statements like yours further validate that claim.
Furthermore, with the 3-way tie on the liberal ticket, many liberals and liberal-independent may wish to vote in that caucus. By when was the last day to register in IA? December 5th?
Can you tell us about how many liberals registered as Republicans?
December 30th, 2007 at 12:29 pm
“The only question is, where will his voters go?”
I think most will go back to where they came from – FDT. Some may go McCain and Romney. But I think the best thing for FDT right now is a Romney IA victory.
December 30th, 2007 at 1:23 pm
cwpete
“Can you tell us about how many liberals registered as Republicans?”
No, I can’t. The extend of that we’ll know in couple days I guess. I am curious myself, but, if RP is basically tide up in third place in polls, he will show up better on the crunch day, because of this “out of the GOP” support.
You definitely right on the fact, that RP support is marginal in the GOP structures and most interest in his campaign comes either from people, who never been in the GOP or felt disinfranchised as Reps and quit supporting neocons.
I have brought the point of new Reps registration, because it seems it is unnoticed by many and especially by pollsters.
Pollsters poll hardcore Reps only.
It goes again to the question: how many new registered Reps will support RP?
December 30th, 2007 at 3:14 pm
Husky,
“Huck, your 15 minutes are almost up.”
Best line I’ve read in awhile….
Nice, Very Nice…..
January 2nd, 2008 at 5:20 pm
[...] This is not an endorsement of his words, as they most assuredly will be proven inaccurate tomorrow – but, to keep my word to Abe – Abe Says: December 30th, 2007 at 9:20 am [...]