As Senator McCain moves closer and closer to winning the Republican nomination, many (but not all) of his old rivals are warming up to him.

Grover Norquist:

“[McCain] has moved in the right direction strongly and forcefully on taxes”

Tony Perkins:

“I have no residual issue with John McCain.”

Richard Land:

 ”He is strongly pro-life. When I hear Rush Limbaugh say that a McCain nomination would destroy the Republican Party, what I want to say to Rush is, ‘You need to get out of the studio more and talk to real people.’

Who would have thought that there would be a day when any of these three would say something nice about McCain?

Rasmussen GOP New Jersey Primary

• John McCain 43% (29%)
• Mitt Romney 29% (10%)
• Other 9% (5%)
• Mike Huckabee 7% (10%)
• Ron Paul 6% (5%)
• Not sure 5% (8%)

McCain attracted votes from 62% of voters who consider themselves moderate. Conservatives were evenly divided, with 36% going to McCain and 38% choosing Romney. McCain is seen as the most electable candidate, with 78% of voters polling that the Arizona senator is at least somewhat likely to win the Republican nomination. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters believe Romney has at least somewhat of a chance to win the nomination. Among New Jersey voters, 37% of voters feel the economy is the most important issue to consider in the upcoming presidential election. The War in Iraq comes in second with 18% and national security is the most important issue for 16% of voters.

However, 53% would rather have a president who can address national security, while 34% want a president who can address economic issues.

Survey of 591 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted January 30, 2008. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 15, 2008 are in parentheses.

h/t HotAir

Schism.

Just in:

• John McCain - 43.5%
• Mitt Romney - 35.3%
• Ron Paul - 3rd Place (total unknown)
• Rudy Giuliani - 4th Place (total unknown)
• Mike Huckabee - 5th Place (total unknown)

D.C. is winner take all. McCain won in 2000.

“I’ll tell you right now, and I’ve not announced this, but I will be voting for Mitt Romney in this campaign. It’s the first time I’ve stated it publicly. I’ll state it now.”

From Jennifer Rubin:

Steven Calabresi, Professor of Law at Northwestern University and co-founder of the premiere conservative legal organization, The Federalist Society, who previously backed Rudy has now endorsed John McCain. In an e-mail to me he explained:

I have endorsed Senator McCain and think he would be an excellent president because he is tough on foreign policy, committed to spending restraint which is the key to small government, and because he has consistently voted for good judicial nominees in tough fights like Robert Bork and Clarence Thomas. I am not troubled by his role as a member of the gang of 14 because I think the compromise he forged got us cloture on Roberts and Alito and produced three excellent lower court judges: Bill Pryor, Janice Rogers Brown, and Priscilla Owen.

Conservative legal scholar and former Solicitor General Charles Fried, another ex-Rudy supporter, also informed me that he “immediately, readily and enthusiastically switched to McCain” after Rudy dropped out.

And ties Fred Thompson for 3rd place this quarter in contributions?
From readers RayinNH and Jeffrey:

- Amount Reported In Primary Contributions In The Fourth Quarter: $9 Million
- In The Fourth Quarter, Governor Romney Loaned $18 Million To Romney For President
- Total Amount Raised In Primary Contributions For The Year: Approximately $53.5 Million
- Total Amount Of Revenue For The Year: $90 Million
- Total Number Of Donors In 2007: More Than 119,000
- Contributions Received From All 50 States And Washington, D.C.
- NO General Election Money Collected In 2007

I’ll update this below in a few minutes…

Almost forgot. For anyone who wants to discuss the Mano e womano showdown on the Dems side, feel free to discuss here.

Me? I’m watching UTC basketball.

Adam C of RedState breaks through the spin and gives us some straight talk on what the polls are saying about Super Tuesday:

A slew of new polls (see right panel) show McCain moving into a lead in states that were expected to be toss ups or Huckabee territory. McCain grabs a lead in TN, GA, MN, and IL. The new CA poll shows a tight race with Romney. If McCain can win CA by 10, he could sweep most of the 173 delegates there, but a close race could break more evenly as delegates are distributed by CD.

McCain now leads in the most recent polls in NY, NJ, CT, GA, TN, AL, OK, MN, CA, AZ, and IL. Some states have not had polling. Romney leads in UT and MA. Huck leads in AR and MO (by 1 point).

But Missouri hasn’t been polled since Florida, Rudy, Arnold, Olson… I could go on and on. And that’s why it’s a bit of a stretch to suggest a close race next Tuesday. McCain is strong in all of the right places to clinch the nomination on 2/5. Each day will bring a new endorsement as the Republican Establishment, which should, in a good year, inspire the same dread as the Galactic Empire, continues to send key Imperial personalities to prop up the party’s new choice for Emperor, John McCain.

Still skeptical? Let’s have some fun with numbers. If McCain comes in first in all of the states that Adam finds McCain currently leading the pack, the senator will acquire 236 delegates from the winner-take-all states of NY, NJ, CT, and AZ, which he will then add to his current 93 delegates for a total of 329. Then there’s California, which, as many often forget, does not award delegates proportionally, but awards them on a winner-take-all basis by congressional district. As Adam points out, if McCain wins the state by double-digits, he’ll probably win most congressional districts, and thus take most of the state’s delegates. If we give McCain 100 delegates out of California’s 173, he now has 429 delegates. Add Missouri’s 58 delegates given McCain’s probable post-Florida lead there and he’s got 487 delegates. Tack on Delaware’s 18 delegates, which McCain will probably win given his lead in the Northeast, and McCain is up to 505 delegates. And we haven’t even scratched the surface of the proportional states.

If McCain takes roughly 45 percent of the vote in the proportional states of GA, IL, TN, AL, MN, OK, WV, AK, and ND, all states in which he currently or probably leads, McCain will claim another 185 delegates, for a total of 690. Give him 25 percent of the delegates from proportional Arkansas (which Huckabee will win) and proportional Massachusetts and Colorado (which Romney will win) and McCain claims another 30 delegates for a grand total of 720. Given that there are 1081 delegates awarded on Super Tuesday, that means that Romney and Huckabee will split the remaining 454 delegates not claimed by John McCain under this scenario. If Huck and Romney split those delegates fairly evenly — let’s say each gets 227 — both will have under 300 delegates as of February 6th, while John McCain will have over 700 delegates. At that point, in order for either Huck or Romney to get to the magic number of 1191 delegates before McCain does, they would have to beat him nearly 2-to-1 in every remaining primary. Given that doing so would be a near-impossibility, it wouldn’t make sense for either of them to go on.

The fight for the GOP nomination is about to come to an end. We’re at five days and counting.

I’ll update this as I go along with posting. Here are the fundraising numbers for this quarter alone. I’ll continually update this as I type in the information. Still waiting on numbers from the Romney and Paul campaigns. From the AP:

4th Quarter Contributions:

• Rudy Giuliani 14 million dollars
• Fred Thompson 8.9 million dollars
• John McCain 6.8 million dollars
• Mike Huckabee 6.6 million dollars

Official Candidate Numbers:

RUDY GIULIANI (dropped out)

• Total receipts to date: $61.6 million, including $5.7 million for the general election
• Total contributions to date: $59.2 million
• Total spending: $48.9 million
• Fourth quarter contributions: $14.2 million
• Fourth quarter spending: $18.3 million
• Fourth quarter transfers or loans: $78,195.
• Cash on hand: $12.8 million
• Debt: $1.2 million
• Top donor states this quarter: New York, $2.3 million; Texas, $1.7 million; California, $1.5 million
• Employees of U.S.A.A. gave $61,600; employees of Merrill Lynch contributed $45,050.00; and employees of Ernst & Young, L.L.P., gave $39,350

FRED THOMPSON (dropped out)

• Total receipts to date: $21.8 million, including $158,163.00 for the general election
• Total contributions to date: $21.7 million
• Total spending: $19.7 million
• Fourth quarter contributions: $8.9 million
• Fourth quarter spending: $14 million
• Fourth excursion transfers or loans: None
• Cash on hand: $2.1 million
• Debt: $404,221.35
• Top donor states this quarter: Tennessee, $780,085; Texas, $492,608; California, $400,316
• Employees of J.P. Morgan gave $19,500; employees of Sullivan and Cromwell, L.L.P., contributed $10,400

JOHN MCCAIN

• Total receipts to date: $42.1 million, including $2.2 million for the general election
• Total contributions to date: $37.5 million
• Total spending: $39.1 million
• Fourth quarter contributions: $6.8 million
• Fourth quarter spending: $10.5 million
• Fourth quarter transfers or loans: $3 million
• Cash on hand: $2.9 million
• Debt: $4.5 million
• Top donor states this quarter: California, $600,715; Florida, $523,583; New York, $458,091
• Employees of Merrill Lynch gave $39,125; employees of Bridgewater Associates contributed $13,800

MIKE HUCKABEE

• Total receipts to date: $9 million, including for the general election
• Total contributions to date: $9 million
• Total spending: $7.1 million
• Fourth quarter contributions: $6.6 million
• Fourth quarter spending: $5.4 million
• Fourth quarter transfers or loans: None
• Cash on hand: $1.9 million
• Debt: $97,676.18
• Top donor states this quarter: Texas, $1 million; Florida, $623,805; California, $267,015
• Employees of Kenneth Copeland Ministries gave $16,020; employees of the Panduit Corporation contributed $13,700; and employees of Emmet, Marvin & Martin, L.L.P., gave $9,720

Obviously things are not shaking out quite the way I had hoped. That’s OK, because as much I as I like Mitt Romney, he is not the reason I am active in politics. The Conservative Movement will do fine with or without Mitt Romney, so either way things shake out, I am not too worried about it.

A friend of mind today told me I must be affected by sour grapes because I think it’s important to still call McCain out on his things. Of course that is insulting to me. As if I only care about Mitt and not the good of the party. As if it’s all personality for me. The only reason I like Mitt is because he is good for the party. I just don’t think we are at the point to crown McCain. We might be there pretty soon, but we might not.

Believe me, when it’s time to support the person who can steer our party in the correct direction I will.

Is that person McCain? I don’t know. Until last night I would have said yes, but for a guy who is supposed to winning over conservatives to be bad mouthing the business practice and the running of corporations really makes me wonder what’s his agenda. We are the party of defense, but we are also the party of business. We won’t be able to fight very many battles in Iraq if we tell the business sector it’s wrong to make money. Last I checked wars aren’t free.

I do see the rational behind voting for him for judges. But the recently corroborated story by Fund makes you really wonder if we are getting a different story because we are in the primaries. Do we really think in a debate with Obama, when McCain is asked what kind of Justices we will have he will say “Roberts, Alitos and Scalia?” I sincerely doubt it. But again, I am open to being convinced.

I am open to the possibility of supporting McCain in the generals. I am also open to the possibility of Mitt carrying on and forcing a win or a brokered convention. And frankly, just because McCain has an “R” next to his name does not mean he would be good the party. He needs to prove it beyond winning a bunch of independents over in NH, SC and FL. He needs to show us why he can be trusted, because nothing in his background or campaign has indicated such.

Next week I will be reporting from CPAC and will have the chance to hear McCain speak directly to conservatives. We will be able to assess two things at that point 1. Does McCain have enough delegates to claim the nomination 2. If McCain is worthy of conservative support. I will tell you then if I think he answers these two questions.

And oh yeah, McCain being a POW is not a good excuse for everything nutty he has said and done. We aren’t electing the Crazy Man Next Door, this is for President, and there is a certain level of decorum that in my opinion is expected, no excuses. It’s a lousy excuse and it’s “weak sauce.” McCain needs to win this on ideas and ability, not his Vet status.

Once again, it is time for a little equal opportunity bashing. Today, we’re going to focus on some of the lamest talking points that come from each candidates supporters that I am frankly growing tired of. So, I’m going to dissect the points for you here and show you why they’re wrong. It gives me the opportunity to dabble in my new favorite pastime, youtube comparisons!

Up first, Mitt Romney-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHK6DnDW69s

Talking Point: They are jealous of Mitt Romney because he can win, and is an outsider who will clean up their mess.

Tommy’s Response: WRONG! I can’t read people’s minds, but I think some of it has to do with the fact that they see Romney as having led the charmed life, is a late convert, and yes, is rich. They think he’s a political opportunist, fair or not. Besides, the man has a love of sledding, eerily reminding folks of striking similarities with another famed businessman turned presidential candidate who shared a fondness for sledding.

Next up, the self proclaimed Sheriff, Buford T. McCain:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPj_7qdm0bo

Talking Point: McCain is a conservative because he has a lifetime rating of 82% by the American Conservative Union, while Fred Thompson’s is 86%, Bill Frist scored an 87% lifetime average, and Rick Santorum scored an 88% lifetime. It makes them similar in their views.

Tommy’s Response: WRONG! It’s taking the ratings out of their context. As many a fine person says, what have you done for me lately?

Technically, many people have used Fred Thompson’s lifetime rating of 86% from the ACU to lend McCain credibility as a conservative. However, this is a flawed analysis, if you compare their tenures over the same years. See below:

Fred Thompson’s career in the Senate lasted from 1995-2002, and he garnered an 86% lifetime grade.

Rick Santorum’s lifetime Average is 88%, from roughly the same period.

Bill Frist scored an 87% from 1995-2006, his full tenure in the Senate.

John McCain’s average from 1995-2002 was actually 79%.

Even more telling, the time he first ran for President in 1999 up to 2006 is when the conservative opposition to McCain has really grown. Over the last 10 years, McCain’s ACU rating has been 74.5%, a full ten points below Thompson’s lifetime average, eleven points below Bill Frist, and twelve points below Santorum. In fact, John McCain hasn’t scored above 81% since 1996, a full twelve years ago.

Up third, Governor Huckabee:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnbVqwV8aw4

Talking Point: Governor Huckabee has been consistent over the years.

Tommy’s Response: One word:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kImZGHrbIP8

I didn’t forget Dr. Paul, but everytime I search a candidate’s name on youtube, I am overflooded with Paul videos. I’ll just let them speak for themselves.

Jen Rubin scoops it over at Contentions.

It appears that way:

NEW YORK - New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg lost California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger - one of his biggest cheerleaders - to John McCain on Thursday and said in more certain terms that he won’t get into the presidential race.

The California Republican announced he is supporting McCain in the GOP primary next week, seeming to lower the expectation that he could be one of Bloomberg’s biggest boosters if the billionaire mayor made an independent run for the White House.

In a visit to Google’s offices in New York City, Bloomberg said he is not a presidential candidate and that he’ll “stay that way,” a slightly stronger indication that he does not intend to seek the presidency.

For Bloomberg watchers who vigorously dissect every syllable, flinch and facial expression when he answers questions about whether he will seek the White House, the response went a bit further than he has gone in recent months.

While Bloomberg typically says he is “not a candidate,” he has given his aides and supporters freedom to promote the idea and study what it would take to mount a third-party campaign.

Part of his strategy would rely on winning the huge share of electoral votes that California offers - 55 of the 270 needed to win.

Bloomberg has made numerous trips there, and was actually in Los Angeles when he announced last June that he was leaving the GOP to become an independent, a move that shifted the presidential speculation into overdrive.

The mayor had also cultivated a key relationship with the Schwarzenegger, holding a fundraiser at his home for his re-election campaign; the governor has also heaped praise on him in the past. The pair have cast themselves as like-minded leaders who don’t rule by partisan politics.

Bloomberg, a technology mogul who founded the financial information company that bears his name, spoke to about 250 Google employees at their vast offices in Manhattan.

When asked if he was going to run for president, Bloomberg said, “No. Next question.”

Later, when a reporter asked about whether he might run, he said he is “not a candidate, and I’ll stay that way,” adding “I plan to finish out my term.”

The Palmetto Scoop thinks so:

Years from now when the story is written about the 2008 Republican presidential primary and John McCain’s now-likely historic ascent to victory, it is quite likely that Florida Gov. Charlie Crist will be given credit for being “The Kingmaker.” Crist, who is surely at the top of McCain’s short list of potential running mates, put his neck on the line and made a brilliant political move at exactly the right moment when he endorsed the Arizona senator last week. That act will forever be seen, rightly or not, as delivering the state to McCain and with it his party’s endorsement in the general election.

But what will go down as, at best, a mere footnote in the history books is that South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford had the exact same opportunity as Crist - and he balked.

Had Sanford not abstained from endorsing and thrown his support behind McCain - whom he backed in 2000 - in the week leading up to this state’s primary, he would have likely been praised for delivering a Palmetto State win. He could have punched his ticket to the big show and soaked up overwhelming national recognition. In doing so, it would have been he, not Crist, that now finds himself the odds-on favorite to be McCain’s running mate.

Instead, Sanford ’s post-gubernatorial ambitions of seeking a larger office have been left out in the cold. If Sanford had any delusions about being vice president, they’re now gone. He has lost a rare opportunity to become a major player on the national scene and keep South Carolina in the limelight.

Sanford had a clear shot at becoming the next vice president and possibly even making a run for president in the future, but he missed his Mark.

Although I am not so sure that Gov. Crist is the “odds-on favorite” to be McCain’s Veep (although Intrade appears to disagree with me), Gov. Sanford seems to have made a mistake in withholding his endorsement.

Frankly this is better news than I had anticipated with Hugh Hewitt’s math. If McCain only ends up 100-150 delegates off of Romney and Huckabee is fighting hard, this could go to the wire with 900 delegates still available after 2/5. I am guessing that this math alone is reason enough for Romney to keep showing commercials, and for conservatives to keep investigating McCain’s records and past statements. Despite what Arnold, Chuck Yob and the lobbyists on K Street want, McCain is not the nominee yet and there is plenty of fighting to be done. We may just have a brokered convention.

Like I wrote then, they think they win most of the winner-take-all states: New York, Arizona, New Jersey, and Connecticut. They think they have Missouri (and it’s a possibility; I put it in Romney’s pile). Team McCain puts Utah in Romney’s pile, and they admit they don’t know how Delaware goes. I put it in the Romney pile, based on an old poll.

McCain campaign manager Rick Davis has a specific estimate of California’s 170 delegates: 63 for McCain, 44 for Romney, 19 for Huckabee. This memo also has “22 for Giuliani” and obviously a lot of toss-ups/don’t knows.

I had put McCain at about half, 85 or so.

In Georgia, the McCain campaign estimates that Huckabee will win the delegate fight with 21 followed by McCain at 12 and Romney at 10.

(Yesterday I had Georgia as winner-take-all and it is not; it’s 3 delegates for each of 13 congressional districts won, and 30 to the statewide winner. I’ll have to revise down my Huckabee estimate a bit, although I would still think Huckabee will take a majority there.)

Davis’ memo puts McCain with 423 of the 1009 delegates at stake that day, 143 for Romney, and 298 that could go anywhere.

Yesterday I put McCain “somewhere north of 400″, Romney getting 200 to 250, and Huckabee getting around 200.

It looks like the biggest prize that’s really up for grabs is Missouri’s 58 delegates that go to the winner.

[For those confused by the firs quote, I accidentally put the wrong quote in the post, sorry about that!]

Lucas Roebuck is a former managing editor of the Northwest Arkansas Times and the Siloam Springs Herald-Leader

If this is a two-man race, Romney may be the odd man out

Mitt Romney and his sycophants among the Beltway ” conservatives” are spinning the yarn that the GOP presidential contest is now a two way race. Romney is wrong. The race still has three viable contenders:

Sen. John McCain, Romney himself, and Gov. Mike Huckabee (who I support ).

” We’re finally getting where we wanted to be, and that is to have a two-person race, ” Romney told Fox News. ” In a two-person race, I like my chances. ”

But if the race was a two-man contest, who are the two men ? After Super Tuesday, Romney may find himself the odd man out.

Let’s look at who leads the Super Tuesday states according to the most recent polls as of this writing. (For what it’s worth, most of my information comes from RealClearPolitics. com. )

McCain is currently leading the following Super Tuesday states:

Arizona, California, Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey and New York. He is tied with Mike Huckabee in Alabama.

Huckabee is currently leading in Arkansas, Georgia, Missouri, Montana, Tennessee and Oklahoma.

Mitt Romney currently leads in Massachusetts and Colorado.

So that leaves six states with no real polling data. Here’s my wild, educated guess on how they’ll split: McCain will take Delaware and Minnesota; Romney will take Utah and maybe North Dakota; Huckabee will take Alaska and West Virginia.

Some of the states are winner-takes-all delegates, while others have varying distribution rules. For the sake of this illustration, however, let’s use a winner-takes-all model, assuming that second- and third-place delegate awards will end up being a wash among candidates.

If this model holds, on Super Tuesday, the candidates will rack up the following number of delegates: McCain, 601; Huckabee, 368; and Romney, 151. Currently, McCain has 93 delegates, Romney has 59 and Huckabee has 40 delegates. In order to win the nomination, a candidate needs to have 1, 191 delegates.

What we are seeing is that Romney’s tired attempts to be the conservative standardbearer aren’t closing the deal. In the end, no matter how many reassuring speeches Romney gives, too many voters - especially social conservatives - just can’t get over Romney’s flips.

His switching on abortion and the Second Amendment just seem a little too convenient. McCain may not be a conservative’s conservative, but he has been consistent on his positions, like Mike Huckabee. Huckabee is as fiscally conservative as any of the GOP candidates in the race and is demonstratively more socially conservative.

The moderate states so far - New Hampshire, Michigan and Florida - were wars between Romney and McCain. The conservative states - South Carolina and Iowa - were dominated by McCain and Huckabee.

A lot has been made recently of the three conservative movements that were part of the Reagan coalition: social conservatives, fiscal conservatives and national defense hawks. Each movement today has their champion. McCain clearly is the strongest military conservative.

Huckabee is clearly the strongest social conservative. Romney can barely make the claim that he is slightly more fiscally conservative than Huckabee. Or McCain. (I don’t think Ron Paul’s libertarians really fit into the Reagan revolution. )

The likelihood that Super Tuesday will come and go without someone getting into striking distance is high. Unless the landscape changes significantly in the next few days, even when Super Tuesday is over, McCain, Romney and Huckabee will all likely have mathematical possibilities of victory.

The dire predictions - that somehow, because more of the electoral contests are being held earlier in the cycle meant the primaries would be over before they began - have not come true. Instead, we have had the exact opposite effect. More opportunities for early victories have kept more Republicans in the game.

The GOP convention may actually pick the candidate this year instead of just crowning him.

As far as his assessment, I do not agree 100% - I think Alaska will go McCain, not Huckabee and I think that the Ron Paul defectors will support Huckabee over any other republican candidate (although most will abstain for vote Libertarian) .

Mike still has a strong reason to stay in - he has tremendous potential to win several states on Tuesday and retain the conservative wing of the party. Romney supporters need to get behind Mike now - Mike has the speaking abilities, the friendly demeanor, and the charm to obliterate the democratic nominee. Romney’s negatives are skyhigh and he will get killed in the general - Mike has the ability to connect with the common man. Mitt just turns him off. Maybe Mitt could be a VP ….

Sorry about my absence over the past day and a half, I’ve had to tend to some unexpected family issues. Looks like I missed a lot of the fun.

After winning Florida, McCain has rapidly consolidated his position as the likely 2008 Republican nominee. Today, he picked up support of Gov. Rick Perry, Gov Arnold Schwarzenegger and former Senator and United Nations Ambassador John Danforth.

On Danforth:

U.S. Senator John McCain’s presidential campaign today announced that John C. Danforth, former U.S. Senator from Missouri and United States Ambassador to the United Nations, has endorsed John McCain for president. Senator Danforth will serve as the honorary Chair of John McCain’s Missouri campaign.

“I have known John McCain for many years, and I am proud to endorse him for president,” said Senator Danforth. “John McCain’s lifetime of service, unparalleled knowledge of world affairs and ability to work across party lines make him the best candidate in this election. In these uncertain times, John McCain is uniquely equipped to meet our challenges and lead our nation in the struggle against radical Islamic extremism. I am proud to help spread John McCain’s message across the country and to the good people of the state of Missouri.”

John McCain expressed his appreciation for Senator Danforth’s support, stating, “I am honored to have John’s support. His knowledge of the issues facing our nation will prove valuable to my campaign, and I grateful to have him on our team.”

In addition, K Street has also begun to coalesce behind McCain. He has raised well over $10 million since his New Hampshire victory and has several fundraisers scheduled over the next few days. McCain and Giuliani are also making a joint appearance on Leno tonight.

This is from FirstRead

As he continues to rack up high-profile Republican endorsements, John McCain today told reporters that Texas Gov. Rick Perry will endorse him this afternoon. The brief mention of Perry, who endorsed Giuliani in October, was prompted by a reporter’s question of whether backing by Rudy and Schwarzenegger — both who are considered moderate on many social issues — will truly aid McCain in courting Republican votes next Tuesday.”I could never, never, ever be anything but honored by the presence of these two great American heroes,” said the Arizona senator in reply, quickly adding that Perry, who is much more conservative on issues like abortion and gay marriage, will be backing him.

Perry’s endorsement is likely a by-product of Rudy’s dropping out of the race and supporting McCain.

Update:

Perry endorses McCain for president

 By W. Gardner Selby

Austin American-Statesman

 Thursday, January 31, 2008, 02:32 PM

 Gov. Rick Perry, who endorsed Rudy Giuliani for president in October, threw his support to U.S. Sen. John McCain on Thursday, a day after Giuliani folded his campaign and endorsed McCain at a California event.

 ”John McCain can and will end the war on terror,” said Perry, who said he spoke with McCain today. “Everything else is kind of secondary.”

Is it me, or does this : ‘”John McCain can and will end the war on terror,” said Perry’ sound kinda weird? end the war on terror? I hope he means win the war, but you never can tell with Perry. He has a habit of talking errantly.

From CNN:

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger announced Thursday he is endorsing Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain.

In endorsing McCain, Schwarzenegger lauded the Arizona senator’s crusade against wasteful spending, his national security credentials and his environmental and economic stewardship.

Flanked by McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who endorsed McCain on Wednesday, Schwarzenegger said he was giving McCain his blessing “because I am interested in a great future and I think Sen. McCain has proven over and over again that he is reaching across the aisle in order to get things done.”

“He’s a great American hero and an extraordinary leader,” the governor said.

Schwarzenegger made the announcement at a solar technologies company in Los Angeles, a day after the four Republican candidates debated at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley.

McCain is also set to receive the endorsements of Georgia’s two Republican senators, Johnny Isakson and Saxby Chambliss, in the next two days, according to two GOP sources involved in the planning. McCain said during Thursday’s news conference that Texas Gov. Rick Perry would endorse him later in the day.

Schwarzenegger’s endorsement could be a key to McCain winning California’s delegates. Florida Gov. Charlie Crist’s endorsement of the Arizona senator was cited in exit polls as a key to his winning there. McCain solidly beat former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and gained momentum with the win.

Momentum is key in a race like this, especially in the GOP, and it could trump other factors, including campaign donations, said Dr. Christopher Hull, a Georgetown University adjunct professor and author of “Grassroots Rules,” a book on the presidential primary process.

“The party will coalesce around the front-runner to defeat the insurgent candidate,” Hull said. “It is a loyalist party at its roots.”

California represents an enormous prize for McCain, not only because of the 173 Republican delegates, but also because of Schwarzenegger’s support base.

Though observers aren’t privy to the level of access, Schwarzenegger’s endorsement could come with e-mail, mailers and phone calls encouraging the governor’s supporters to get behind McCain.

“If McCain gets access to that organization, he gets a very strong tactical boost,” Hull said.

It looks like by the time the first post-Super Tuesday primaries are held here in Virginia, the Republican nomination battle will be more or less wrapped up. Between the Arnold and Rudy endorsements and Huckabee and Romney splitting the conservative vote, I’m just not sure anyone other than McCain will be viable by then.

So what’s a Republican to do? Take a page from Kos, of course. You will recall that in the Michigan primary, Kos urged Democrats to vote for Romney, on the theory that he would be the weakest general election candidate.

After seeing that Obambi raised $32M in January, and exchanging a couple e-mails from African American friends who are swearing up and down that they will under no circumstances vote for Hillary, I think its pretty easy to see why we would want to give her wooden highness a boost. That, and while I think they’re pretty much equally bad in terms of policies, Clinton would be a bad enough President and candidate that, even if she won, she would spell disaster for downticket Democrats in red areas, giving Republicans another 1994 in 2010 (which is almost as important as 2008, given redistricting). Therefore, on February 12, for the first time in my life, I will be pulling the lever for a Clinton. And I urge everyone here to do so as well.

And because its not an election season without some voting catastrophe involving Florida (Bush/Gore, the 2002 Dem Primary, Terri Schiavo, FL-13, oh, yeah, the Miami Mayoral election in 1997), I heartily commend Hillary in her exceedingly divisive and cynical efforts to get the Florida and Michigan delegates back on the ticket. Make sure every vote counts!

(Incidentally, the 5150 is a reference to the California process for placing someone involuntarily on psychiatric hold. Which, according to the excellent (and NSFW) wwtdd.com, just happened to Britney. It’s pretty amazing really; three years ago she was the hottest POA in America, a year ago she was being cheered by millions as she left K-Fed, and now she’s heading toward a loony bin and reports of some naked portion of her showing up online make me avoid the internet for a few days rather than drive home for lunch to check out Google. Sad, if it wasn’t so doggone entertaining.

It’s also the name of the album that ushered in the Van Hagar years, but that’s a rant for a different time and blog.).

UPDATE: Just to be clear: I’m not voting Hillary in the general. I’m talking about voting in Virginia’s open primary.

The Ladies love Huck…

Last night in the debate several media outlets have declared their winners, and Huck came out on top from several of them. Huck has always played well in the polls with regard to women. Last night was no exception. Since women will likely be key in 2008, this is an important story.

One particular lady seemed very pleased with Mike:

(Nancy is supporting McCain, although not publicly)

Politico has this to say about a panel of 11 women in California:

BEVERLY HILLS, Calif. - The media called it a “victory lap” for John McCain, touting him as the winner of Wednesday night’s Republican debate.

But for 11 Republican-leaning women in a California conference room, the underdog - former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee - came out ahead.

Arizona Sen. McCain, they said, was snide, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was “phony.” Issues were secondary to personality. And hot-button topics like abortion, and even the war in Iraq, were decidedly less important to these women than bread-and-butter concerns like the economy and health care.

“Being a woman, [I think] Huckabee overall best understands what women Republicans or voters want, need and expect,” said Christine, a 32-year-old moderate Republican.

“He seemed more classy and more real,” agreed Pam, a 44-year-old undecided voter.

The women, all residents of Los Angeles County, came together in a nondescript Beverly Hills conference room to watch the debate, evaluate the candidates and talk some serious politics. They were participants in a focus group co-sponsored by Politico and Lifetime Networks, which are partnering to study how women view the presidential candidates.

Politico got to play policeman, watching from behind a thick pane of double-sided glass as the women observed the debate on CNN and discussed their reactions.

California, which has more than 15 million registered voters, is a make-or-break race for Republicans. The state awards 173 delegates, the largest number of any single state. The majority, 153 in total, are doled out by congressional district, turning the state into a hard-fought ground zero for every candidate hoping to pick up delegates.

The focus group here reflected California’s diversity, with participants ranging in age, income and ethnicity. At least three were immigrants, coming from Russia, Hungary and Thailand.

Despite their differences, most felt a Huckaboom at this debate.

Seven out of the 11 women declared Huckabee the winner, even though neither he nor Texas Rep. Ron Paul had anywhere near the airtime of McCain or Romney. After viewing the debate, four of the women - almost half the group - said they had changed their vote from McCain to Huckabee.

The former Arkansas governor won Iowa, but has yet to take another gold in the five subsequent races. The latest polling in California, taken before the debate, showed Huckabee with 11 percent - far behind Romney’s 28 percent and McCain’s 32 percent.

Still, Huckabee has consistently polled better with women than with men: 40 percent to 20 percent in Iowa, for example. His gender gap was smaller in other states but still notable: He won 33 percent of the female vote in South Carolina, compared with 28 percent of the male vote. And in Florida, he pulled 18 percent of women and just 11 percent of men.

McCain, considered the GOP front-runner after his big win in Florida, didn’t score any points with these undecided female voters - mostly because of his personal demeanor during the debate. They felt he was rude, undignified and as canned as a bad pickup line.

In general, the women respected his achievements but felt he was too snide on the debate stage at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in nearby Simi Valley.

Romney, while seen as professional, failed the personality test. “Arrogant,” “phony,” “Stepford wife-ish” and “a snake” were their choice words for the former Massachusetts governor. (Although they all agreed on his good looks.)

Part of his problem seemed to be his wealth. Romney, who made his fortune as chief executive of the private equity firm Bain Capital, is rumored to have contributed as much as $40 million to his own campaign.

“If he became president, I can almost agree that he won’t think of anyone else but himself and the wealthy,” said Eva, 39, a Hispanic who identified herself as a strong Republican.

Romney’s Mormon faith also made some of the women uncomfortable.

“It scares me how much he’s downplayed it,” said Katherine, 42, a small-business owner. “I know if he were to win, the second he’d get into office that would rear its head.”

Overall, issues took a back seat to personal qualities.

But when pressed, the women named immigration and health care as their top concerns.
Health care, they said, is a particularly resonant issue for women, because they have and take care of children.

“We’re going to have kids, some of us do have kids, and we want to make sure they’re taken care of,” said Rita, a 25-year-old moderate Republican. “It’s the general maternal instinct.”

And, as with voters throughout the country, the women’s concerns about a struggling economy far outranked their feelings about the war in Iraq.

One traditionally female issue that didn’t make the list was abortion. The women all said that, while they had their own personal views on the issue, it wasn’t a litmus test. They believed the issue was unlikely to change dramatically either way - no matter who wins the election.

One point of contention was the candidates’ descriptions of retired Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor. When asked if Ronald Reagan was right to appoint O’Connor to the Supreme Court, the candidates generally dodged the question.

“This is a history-making woman, and they all said such terrible things,” said Katherine. “That made me feel like none of them were thinking, ‘Well, that’s going to offend some women out there.’”

And although they said they wouldn’t vote for Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, they respected her historical position.

“I don’t think I’ll vote for her, because I don’t agree with her policies,” said Joy. “But it is a monumental step that a woman as strong as she is has come as far as she has.”

The focus group was chosen and facilitated by Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway of The Polling Company. Democratic pollster Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners has put together a similar group of undecided women voters to hear the Democratic candidates’ debate in Los Angeles on Thursday night.

We will continue to see this kind of fallout from the debate last night. The new polls from Saturday will be very telling - it is obvious that the top 3 are not getting out of the race, which is a good thing. Huck still has a strong chance to pick up several hundred delegates in the southern states. These are states that would otherwise goto McCain if Huck were not in the race.

From my friend, prolific blogger, and fellow Tennessean, Bob Krumm:

I just caught a couple minutes of Ralph Bristol’s radio show this morning. He was interviewing local Congressman Jim Cooper. Cooper is the only member of the Tennessee House delegation to have voted against the stimulus package. He thinks that adding another $150 billion to the deficit isn’t how you stimulate the economy. He’s right.

Rep. Cooper has been a spending hawk during his second stint in Congress. He is deeply disappointed at the presidential field, saying that the only candidate who was even talking about the cuts needed in entitlement programs was Fred Thompson, and “You can see what that got him; people don’t want to be told the truth.”

What makes Cooper’s favorable remarks about Fred even more notable was that Jim Cooper was the six-term Democratic Congressman and son of a popular former Tennessee Governor who in 1994 blew a 20-point lead to a novice candidate running for his first elected office: Fred Thompson.

On a side note, I continue to be more and more impressed with my current senator, Bob Corker. I am man enough to admit when I was wrong, and in his case, I was. Corker has turned out to be a fine representative of conservative values. Senator Corker, I salute you. You have earned my respect and support.

I respect John McCain. He is a great American. I voted for him in the 2000 New Hampshire primary. If Mitt Romney wasn’t running, he would probably have been my second choice. It would have been either him or Fred Thompson. However, I am very disappointed in him that he would misinterpret statements made by Romney about Iraq. Furthermore, we did not hear a word about this timetable issue from John McCain until a few days before the Florida primary when Romney looked to be winning. By waiting till the last minute, Romney had little time to defend himself against an unjust criticism. It reminds me of something an older man once told me. If someone repeatedly says, “I’ll be honest with you,” chances are they are being anything but honest. If someone was honest most of the time, they wouldn’t feel they needed to underscore that they were being honest this time. John McCain should let others judge whether or not he is a straight talker as opposed to calling himself one (the Straight Talk Express). One of the reasons I like Mitt Romney better than John McCain and Mike Huckabee is because he lacks the self-righteousness that the other two men display. McCain calls himself the Straight Talk Express. Huckabee wears his religion on his sleeve. Mitt Romney on the other hand just leads by example. He doesn’t misinterpret statements by his opponents the way McCain does. He has run negative ads, but his ads have been factual and have been based on his opponents’ records. McCain, on the other hand, has run ad hominem attack ads. He ran one in New Hampshire quoting a liberal newspaper calling Romney a “phoney”. Then McCain gets on TV and complains about all the negative ads Romney has run. He makes the charge that Massachusetts had a bad economy under Romney, but it was very difficult for Romney to do as much as he wanted with a Democratic supermajority in the Legislature. However, even though John McCain knows this, he says it anyway. Mitt Romney is as much of a straight talker as John McCain and every bit as religious as Mike Huckabee, but he chooses to let others notice that on their own instead of telling people, “I’m a straight talker. I’m religious.” Sadly, this may be his downfall. Evangelicals flock to Huckabee because he quotes scripture and constantly reminds them of his religiosity. Decent people flock to McCain because he calls himself a straight talker, and that is something we all want in a President. Super Tuesday voters have a week to decide. Will they choose the Straight Talker, the religious candidate, or the man who is both of those things but doesn’t feel he needs to brag about it? If Super Tuesday voters give the candidates more than a cursory glance and look at their backgrounds as opposed to simply believing what candidates say about themselves, we may have a new frontrunner next Wednesday.

If anything, I have been consistent in my bashing of some polling firms, including Insider Advantage, but the results that Aron posted from Tennessee and Georgia are eye openers. McCain’s momentum from his victories in South Carolina and Florida have moved him ahead of Huckabee in both states.

Granted, this is the same polling firm that had Newt Gingrich in 2nd place as late as May in South Carolina, but this goes to show that if the trends are accurate, the only thing that matters in this election is momentum, soundbytes, and the mainstream media coverage.

I bet if McCain and Huck had a meeting today, it would sound a lot like this:

Insider Advantage GOP Tennessee Primary

• John McCain 33%
• Mike Huckabee 25%
• Mitt Romney 18%
• Ron Paul 9%
• Undecided 13%

Survey of 375 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 30, 2008. The margin of error is +/- 5.2 percentage points.

MPR/University of MN Minnesota Caucus Poll, conducted Jan. 20th-27th, 2008

• John McCain 41%
• Mike Huckabee 22%
• Mitt Romney 17%
• Rudy Giuliani 6%
• Ron Paul 5%

The margin of error for the full sample of 917 Minnesotans is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. The margin increases to 5.5 points for the sub-sample of Republicans.

Insider Advantage GOP Georgia Primary

• John McCain 35%
• Mike Huckabee 24%
• Mitt Romney 24%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Undecided 11%

Survey of 362 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 30, 2008. The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points.

I was as close to a McCainiac as any Romney guy can get. I’m more moderate on illegal immigration (I don’t want a path to citizenship, but I’m willing to accept one for real border security), I’m more moderate on global warming (I hate cap and trade nonsense, but I could see supporting more conservative solutions like those outlined in Newt’s “A Contract with the Earth”). I don’t mind that McCain opposed the tax cuts, because I tend to think that tax cuts should be focused more on the middle class as well (not to mention being accompanied by spending restraints).

In a whole host of ways, I’m pretty close to John McCain ideologically and nearly supported him at various points this election season. But, the McCain of the last few weeks (who seems now to be simply McCain, with a bigger microphone, and on a larger stage) is a uniquely unappealing character, from his deeply flawed temperament, to his irrational lashing out at capitalism and capitalists, to his utter inability to answer a question substantively. He will lead us to a defeat of historic proportions, current polls notwithstanding. I suspect we’ll even be a little relieved when it happens. And I’m not saying this to sway anyone. I have no illusions that McCain can still be stopped, particularly not with Huckabee in the race. This is just an honest assessment, from a guy who cares alot about the future of the Republican party, and who thinks that we’re going to deeply regret our choice.

Rasmussen GOP Illinois Primary, conducted Jan. 29th, 2008

• John McCain 34%
• Mitt Romney 26%
• Mike Huckabee 16%
• Ron Paul 10%

The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.