This is an open thread for IA predictions, but first here are my own.
Democratic caucus- First Ballot
Democratic caucus- Second Ballot
Republican Caucus:
Have at it! I’ll compile your predictions for a race42008.com result. All those before 7 pm ET, anyway.
Editor’s Note: The Race 4 2008 Iowa Caucus Open Forum will be going live at 7pm EST.-KWN
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:19 pm
I don’t usually do predictions, but I might have to weigh in on this one a little later. Good buzz doesn’t always translate into good results, but I’m hearing some good buzz.
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:22 pm
Romney will squeek it out by ….1 pct…. !!!
Edwards will squeek it out by ….1 pct…. !!!
There are my two cents
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:23 pm
Dem caucus – Final Ballot
*Barack Obama: 41%
*John Edwards: 31%
*Hillary Clinton: 28%
Republican Caucus:
*Mitt Romney: 30%
*Mike Huckabee: 26%
*Fred Thompson: 14%
*Ron Paul: 11%
*John McCain: 10%
*Rudy Giuliani: 8%
*Duncan Hunger: 1%
*Alan Keyes: 0%
– Duncan Hunter drops out and endorses Sen Thompson of the huckster
– Ron Paul raises $15mil between IA and NH
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:23 pm
Matthew,
I think you are underestimating Alan Keyes. And I’m not joking. Not only have you left him off your list, but I think he will do better than last place.
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:24 pm
Romney: 31%
Huckabee: 28%
Fred Thompson: 11%
John McCain: 11%
Rudy Guiliani: 10%
Ron Paul: 7%
Duncan Hunter: 2%
Mitt superior organization proves to be the difference.
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:24 pm
Dems
Obama
Edwards
Clinton
GOP
Huck
Romney
Paul
Romney’s on-site people are rumored to be great enough to GOTV him to 1st, but I have no evidence of this and cannot count on it.
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:26 pm
On #1 – Tommy, you’re a great poster, but in your comments you have this tendency to say, “Oooohh here’s something interesting” followed by “I might actually talk about it later”. What’s the buzz? You don’t have to make a prediction.
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:27 pm
I call it:
Huck 33%
Mitt 29%
Thompson 12%
McCain 11%
Paul 6%
Rudy 6%
Other 3%
On the democratic side, I call it:
Obama 35%
Clinton 30%
Edwards 28%
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:29 pm
AMERICA HATERS
Edwards
Obama
Clinton
Republicans
Romney 27
Thompson 22
Huckabee 21
Paul 11
McCain 11
Giuliani 6
Keyes 1
Hunter 1
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:29 pm
Obama will win big (by at least 5) over Edwards, then Hillary.
Huck will win by a small amount (1-3%) over McCain.. just kidding Romney
Not sure who will get 3rd. Ideology suggests Thompson, buzz would suggest McCain.
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:30 pm
FWIW. I don’t like it but here it is:
Huck 33%
Mitt 29%
JMac 18%
Hope I’m wrong
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:30 pm
Huckabee 37%
Romney 22%
McCain 16%
Thompson 10%
Giuliani 7%
Paul 5%
Hunter 3%
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:30 pm
IAHawk – I will buy you dinner at a place of your choosing for a whole year if those results come to pass.
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:30 pm
THE HUCK-A-BUST…..of course…
THIS WILL HAPPEN……
As far as some actually numbers…well
These are just “know-idea” guesses….
Romney….31%
Huck……27%
Thompson..12%
McCain….11%
Paul…….9%
Rudy…….7%
Others…..3%
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:31 pm
I posted mine last night:
Huck 32
Mitt 25
Fred 14
JMac 12
Paul 10
Rudy 5
Hunt 1
Keye 1
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:31 pm
Democratic caucus- First Ballot
Barack Obama: 30%
Hillary Clinton: 29%
John Edwards: 27%
Bill Richardson: 13%
Joe Biden: 8%
Democratic caucus- Second Ballot
Barack Obama: 38%
John Edwards: 31%
Hillary Clinton: 30%
Republican Caucus:
Mitt Romney: 28%
Mike Huckabee: 24%
Fred Thompson: 15%
John McCain: 11%
Ron Paul: 11%
Rudy Giuliani: 9%
Duncan Hunter: 1%
John Cox: 1% (I think he’ll show up on the radar, despite himself)
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:32 pm
13 Your on
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Ron Paul third with small margin of becoming second.
Romney 28
Huck 22
Paul 20
McCain 10
Thompson 6
Rudy 6
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:35 pm
On second thought, and after seriously considering Kucinich, Biden, and Richardson all more or less implying to their followers to back Obama if they don’t get enough support in Iowa…here’s my new second ballot prediction on the Dem side
Democratic caucus- Second Ballot
Barack Obama: 40%
John Edwards: 30%
Hillary Clinton: 30%
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:37 pm
I’m dizzy.
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Republicans:
Romney
Huckabee
Thompson
Paul
McCain
Democrats:
Who gives a crap!
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:38 pm
GOP Race:
Huck: 29%
Romney: 27.5%
Thompson: 14.5
McCain: 13%
Rudy: 7%
Paul: 6%
Hunter: 1%
Dems:
Edwards: 28%
Obama: 26%
Clinton: 23%
Richardson: 14%
Biden: 8%
Others: 1%
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:39 pm
Republicans:
Huckabee: 34%
Romney: 27%
Paul: 13%
Thompson: 12%
McCain: 9%
Giuliani: 3%
Hunter: 1%
Keyes: 1%
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Romney by 4
Huckabee
Thompson
Paul
McCain
Giuliani
The margin between Thompson and Paul is going to be
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:41 pm
# 9. Is that really necessary? I know a lot of people disagree with one another, but watching this whole process play out I have only more respect and admiration for ALL of the candidates (even the ones I can’t stand). It has been a lesson in democracy, both good and bad, but very informative.
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Iowa Caucus Open Forum at 7pm EST folks! Be here.
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:42 pm
addendum to #24;
less than or equal to 2%
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:43 pm
Huckabee
Romney
Paul
McCain
Thompson
Giuliani
Hunter
Keyes
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:43 pm
Democrat:
#1 – Edwards – 34%
#2 – Clinton 29%
#3 – Obama – 24%
#4 – Biden – 4%
#5 – Brich – 3%
#6 – all others = 6%
GOP –
Huckababy – 28%
Romney – 23%
Jmac – 21%
Ronnie P – 11%
Old man Fred – 8%
Rudy G – 6%
Duncan Donuts – 2%
all others – 1%
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:44 pm
#25 agreed Axel, look at poor Kenya. They are dissolving into chaos over an election. For all its flaws, our democracy still works the best
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:44 pm
The only prediction that matters:
Romney 30
Huck: 29
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:44 pm
25
Just an opinion, I listen to what the Dems say and don’t think they have much love for the country.
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:45 pm
Edwards
Obama
Clinton
Richardson
Biden???
Dodd???
Kucinich???
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:47 pm
Democrats:
Obama 35%
Clinton 30%
Edwards 28%
Republicans:
I have NO stinking clue.
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:47 pm
Romney 29%
Huckabee 28%
McCain 11 %
Paul 10%
Thompson 10%
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:47 pm
Rep:
Huckabee 32%
Romney 27%
McCain 12%
Thompson 11%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 4%
Hunter 2%
Everyone else less than 1%
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:49 pm
Someone keep tabs on this so that at the end of the night, the person who had the most accurate position gets a Pepsi or something.
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:49 pm
So, as Rasmussen Reports first noted several weeks ago, those who want pre-caucus polls to tell them who will in Iowa are sure to be sorely disappointed. Consider the results from four years ago. Five firms released polls in the final week of the campaign and showed John Kerry’s support ranging from 21% to 26%. Kerry was slightly ahead of Dean in three polls while Dean had a statistically meaningless lead in two others.
The end result? Kerry outperformed the polls by double digits and ended up with 37.6% of the delegates. He more than doubled the 18.0% support picked up by Dean. John Edwards came in second even though four of the five polled showed Dean narrowly on top of Edwards.
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:50 pm
Romney 31%
Huckabee 30%
Thompson 16%
Paul 10%
McCain 9%
Giuliani 3%
Hunter 1%
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:50 pm
Romney 30
Huckabee 29
Thompson 13
Paul 11
McCain 10
Giulani 5
Keyes 1
Hunter 1
Obama 37
Edwards 33
Clinton 30
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:50 pm
Here are mine:
Huckabee- 30%
Romney- 28%
McCain- 13%
Paul- 12%
Thompson- 10%
Giuliani- 6%
Hunter- 1%
Thompson drops out and endorses McCain. Hunter drops out, but I have no idea who he endorses (not that it really matters).
Obama, Edwards, Clinton in that orders for the Dems.
McCain wins NH and MI and takes the nomination.
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:52 pm
Romney or Huckabee first (who knows which?), Paul a surprising #3 and then Thompson/McCain (not sure of order)
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:53 pm
Republicans:
Huckabee: 30
Romney: 26
Thompson: 14
McCain: 13
Paul: 9
Giuliani: 8
Hunter: 1
Keyes: 1
I think Paul’s “hidden turnout” may be overestimated and Huckabee’s may be underestmated. Remember Ames? Rudy’s got a small ground game, but the Mormon and Evangelical turnout will depress his percentages. Regardless, I now think the order will be Huckabee-Romney-Thompson-McCain-Paul-Giuliani-Hunter-Keyes.
—
Democrats:
Edwards: 32
Clinton: 29
Obama: 25
Richardson: 7
Biden: 6
Dodd: 2
Kucinich: -
Gravel: –
As Joe Trippi said: “I was there four years ago when we talked about 200,000 young voters coming out to vote. They never did.”
I wouldn’t be surprised if Clinton won and I wouldn’t be shocked if Obama managed to win, but it doesn’t seem likely to me, at this point.
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:53 pm
[...] See also: Race 4 2008’s Iowa caucus prediction thread. [...]
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:55 pm
16 — # MattyN Says:
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:31 pm
Democratic caucus- First Ballot
Barack Obama: 30%
Hillary Clinton: 29%
John Edwards: 27%
Bill Richardson: 13%
Joe Biden: 8%
Um. That adds up to 107%.
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:56 pm
Here are mine for what they are worth:
-Mitt Romney: 27%
-Mike Huckabee: 24%
-John McCain: 17%
-Fred Thompson: 13%
-Rudy Giuliani: 9%
-Ron Paul: 8%
-Duncan Hunter: 2%
-Alan Keyes: 0%
-Jon Cox: 0)
Liberals:
—————
-Obama: 30%
-Edwards: 28%
-Clinton: 25%
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:59 pm
One question, I’ve heard that Democrats feel that if Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney win the Republican nomination, then they’ll be confident in the general election. Of the front runners on the Democrat side, who do Republicans feel provides the most desirable match up?
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:59 pm
Is there a single Rombot who will predict Huck will win?
Isn’t all of this freakin’ pointless since none of them will be objective?
This isn’t predicting. This is blind faith.
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:00 pm
Dem Fisrst Ballot
Obama 30%
Clinton 30%
Edwards 27%
Biden 6%
Richardson 5%
Dodd/Kucinich/Gravel 2%
Dem Final Ballot
Obama 38%
Clinton 33%
Edwards 29%
(Reasoning: Obama has the poll numbers to win and wil pick up most minor canidate supporters..though Biden’s may go to Clinton. Clinton has the better organization, so I’m giveing her a better finish than polls show)
Republicans
Huckabee 30%
Romney 28%
McCain 12%
Thompson 11%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 7%
Hunter 1%
Keyes 1%
(Reasoning: Romney finishes closer to Huck than polled due to organization advantage, McCain makes residual gain from NH momentum, Paul is underpolled due to his support from younger demographics)
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:00 pm
#Ben: Either Clinton or Edwards. Clinton is so polarizing and Edwards is a loon
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:01 pm
Metro, I’ve been a Rombot for over a year, and I not only predicted Huckavee to win Iowa, but John McCain to win NH…
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:03 pm
Texas, thank you!
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:03 pm
i stand by my prediction that edwards takes the Dem side. I think he is the safe choice that iowans will feel good about. i also don’t think any GOP cracks 30%. #51 – i too have been a rombot for a year, but sadly see a huckabee iowa win and a jmac NH win..
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:03 pm
I made mine last sunday;
http://race42008.com/2007/12/30/steve-forbes-interview-with-wolf-blitzer/#comment-216541
No individual % and positions; as for Dems, Obama wins by about 5%.
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:04 pm
Also, my prediction:
Huckabee 32
Romney 29
McCain 14
Thompson 9
Paul 8
Giuliani 7
Hunter 1
Obama 32
Clinton 27
Edwards 26
Biden 9
Richardson 4
Dodd 1
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Metro:
“Is there a single Rombot who will predict Huck will win?
Isn’t all of this freakin’ pointless since none of them will be objective?
This isn’t predicting. This is blind faith.”
Is there a single ‘Romnot’ who will project a Romney win? Sheesh, where is your objectivity?!
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:06 pm
#23, bing
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Metro,
Read the post, Matt is saying that Huck will win:
# Mike Huckabee: 31%
# Mitt Romney: 27%
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:07 pm
Metro, let’s hear more about blind faith from the guy who says Rudy’s going to bring it home on Feb 5.
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:10 pm
cwpete, actually, until last night, I DID post my prediction that Mitt would win.
Also, I don’t consider Matt Miller a Rombot. I consider him a thinking man who supports Romney.
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:14 pm
Republican: 1. Romney, 2.Huckabee, 3.McCain, 4.Paul, 5.Thompson
Dems: 1. Obama, 2. Clinton, 3. Edwards
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:14 pm
Metro,
Did not see your post last night. Post them here so they can be counted.
Regards,
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:15 pm
#48 Metro,
“Is there a single Rombot who will predict Huck will win?”
We could easily ask the question:
Is there a single Huckobot who will predict a Romney win?
Anyway, I think it is to close to call, I’m only giving a slight edge to Romney because I’m “Praying” that his GOTV game is stronger on this cold blistery night in Iowa
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:16 pm
Huckabee’s Sprint to the Finish
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:17 pm
cwpete, my current predictions are in this thread at #15. A couple days previously, I made a tentative prediction with Mitt in the lead, but that is not my latest prediction.
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:18 pm
Dems (final)
Obama 38%
Edwards 32%
Hillary 30%
GOP
Huckabee 30
Romney 28
McCain 15
Thompson 11
Paul 10
Rudy 5
Hunter 1
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:19 pm
Mitt: 34%
Huck: 30%
Fred: 12%
Paul: 11%
McCain: 9%
Rudy: 4%
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:19 pm
65
Tonight around 9:00pm I will post my FINAL prediction
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:19 pm
Huckabutt 35
Romney 29
McCain 12
Ron Paul 10
Thompson 6
Giuliani 6
hunter 1
keys 1
I honestly HAVE NO IDEA! This is just my gut, not what I hope for. I hope I am wrong.
obama, then edwards, then hillary on dem side.
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:20 pm
Forgot the Dems:
Obama: >30%
Edwards:
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:21 pm
Very well Metro, #65:
I don’t see how you can expect me to believe that you are being objective now
I’ll take you for your word.
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:21 pm
Prediction: Romney loses a point for saying “Don’t touch the hair.”
Besides, John Edwards already has the pretty hair vote locked up.
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:23 pm
Psycheout #72;
Prediction: Romney gains a point for the joke “don’t touch the hair!”
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:23 pm
..and your are right about Edwards.
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:24 pm
#48, I’m an avid Romney supporter, but . . .
I predicted a day or two ago that Huck will win.
Since I have no idea though, Here’s how I’d LIKE it to be:
Romney 45%
Thompson 16%
Paul 14%
Giuliani 10%
McCain 10%
Huckabee 5%
I suppose if I had to make a prediction, though:
Huckabee 29%
Romney 27%
McCain 14%
Paul 12%
Thompson 10%
Giuliani 8%
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:25 pm
#63
Typo, meant “blustery” night in Iowa
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:25 pm
My predictions:
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. McCain
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
The names are correct, even if the numbers are wrong.
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:27 pm
#73,#74 LOL, cwpete!
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:29 pm
Is there a single ‘Romnot’ who will project a Romney win? Sheesh, where is your objectivity?!
I was thinking that he’d win as recently as two days ago.
I still think he could do it.
I say that there’s a 60:40 Huck wins.
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:53 pm
My prediction?
Mike Huckabee 34%
Mitt Romney 25%
Fred Thompson 13%
John McCain 12%
Ron Paul 8%
Rudy Giuliani 7%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Alan Keyes
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:56 pm
I guess I will put my predictions here. Up until last night, I figured that Romney would take it. His organization was too strong and he seemed to be trending upwards. Today, I just don’t know. His campaign is hoping for low turnout, but I don’t if that’s realistic. Huckabee has also recaptured the lead in 3 straight polls today. So I’ll say the Republican results are:
Huckabee 32%
Romney 29%
McCain 15%
Thompson 11%
Ron Paul 9%
Giuliani 7%
Keyes 2%
Hunter 1%
The Democratic results are even weirder. I think the fact that Kucinich, Richardson and possibly Biden are all lining up behind Obama, will put him over the top.
Obama 30%
Edwards 28%
Clinton 25%
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:56 pm
I am a Romney supporter, but I think Huckabee will win tonight.
Huckabee 36%
Romney 31%
Thompson 11%
Paul 10%
McCain 9%
Rudy 3%
January 3rd, 2008 at 4:58 pm
For the Dems:
Obama 41%
Edwards 29%
Clinton 25%
Everybody else 5%
January 3rd, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Huckabee will win by a bigger margain than expected.
Order:
Huckabee
Romney
McCain
Paul
Thompson-Drops out before New Hampshire
Rudy
Hunter
January 3rd, 2008 at 5:03 pm
When would go the momentum McCain is having right now if he came in 5th behind Thompson and Paul?
January 3rd, 2008 at 5:04 pm
#81 “Huckabee has also recaptured the lead in 3 straight polls”
Maybe that’s just because of the fact that the Romney campaign has told it’s supporters not to answer the polls.
??
Here’s to hoping . . .
January 3rd, 2008 at 5:12 pm
I think it will be:
Huckabee 31
Romney 26
McCain 13
Thompson 12
Rudy 8
Paul 7
And for the Democrats
1. Obama
2. Edwards
3. Clinton
January 3rd, 2008 at 5:16 pm
Has anybody noticed that Mitt is #1 in today’s national Rasmussen poll? I’ve said for months that national polls before Iowa are meaningless, but Mitt takes over the number 1 spot within a few hours of being after Iowa. This is the reason why Mitt no longer needs to be number 1 in the first 2 states to still be viable. There is now nobody higher than Mitt outside of those states. Having said that, I believe that Mitt will win the first 2 states anyway. He’s been underestimated before.
January 3rd, 2008 at 5:20 pm
“This is the reason why Mitt no longer needs to be number 1 in the first 2 states to still be viable.”
HAHA O man. I have no idea what’s going to happen, but when I see comments like this from an avid Rombooster it tells me that the confidence for a win tonight just isn’t anywhere near where it was not long ago…
January 3rd, 2008 at 5:23 pm
I wish it weren’t true, but here’s my prediction:
Huck 35
Romney 27
Thompson 13
McCain 11
Paul 6
Giuliani 5
Hunter 1
Keyes 1
January 3rd, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Mitt Romney: 31%
Mike Huckabee: 27%
Fred Thompson: 13%
Ron Paul: 12%
John McCain: 9%
Rudy Giuliani: 5%
Alan Keyes: 2%
Duncan Hunter: 1%
January 3rd, 2008 at 5:25 pm
BTW,
Has anybody noticed that Mitt and McCain are tied at 29% each in New Hampshire according to today’s CNN poll? The state is still very winnable for Romney, despite the best efforts of the left wing media to make him go away.
January 3rd, 2008 at 5:35 pm
Mitt 33%
Huckabust 29%
McCain
Paul
Thompson
January 3rd, 2008 at 5:43 pm
Mitt 31%
Huck 28.8%
Fred 15%
Paul 11%
Mccain 10%
Rudy 6%
DEM
Obama 34%
Edwards 29%
Clinton 27%
January 3rd, 2008 at 5:48 pm
Republicans
Huck by >5%
Mitt
McCain/Paul/Thompson (tied for third)
Rudy
Keyes
Hunter
Democrats
Edwards by a slim margin
Obama/Clinton
Biden
Richardson
Dodd
Kucinich
January 3rd, 2008 at 6:00 pm
Romney 34
Huckabee 32
McCain 10
Paul 9
Thompson 9
Guiliani 5
Edwards 32
Obama 31
Clinton 26
Biden 6
Richardson 4
Dodd 1
January 3rd, 2008 at 6:19 pm
Bill Clinton predicted today that Huckabee would win the Iowa caucus. Just saying..
January 3rd, 2008 at 6:45 pm
Dems
Barack Obama: 40%
Hillary Clinton: 31%
John Edwards: 29%
Republican Caucus:
Mike Huckabee: 30%
Mitt Romney: 28%
Ron Paul: 12%
Fred Thompson: 12%
John McCain: 11%
Rudy Giuliani: 6%
Duncan Hunter: 1%
January 3rd, 2008 at 6:52 pm
First, the easy one:
Obama – 38%
Edwards – 33%
Clinton – 31%
Now, the tough one:
Romney – 41%
Huckabee – 29%
Thompson – 10%
McCain – 9%
Paul – 7%
Giuliani – 3%
Keyes – 1%
Hunter – 1%
This prediction will either make me the biggest fool of all or the greatest predictor of all….
January 3rd, 2008 at 7:57 pm
Democrats
Barack Obama 40%
Hillary Clinton 31%
John Edwards 29%
Republicans
Mike Huckabee 32%
Mitt Romney 29%
John McCain 13%
Fred Thompson 11%
Ron Paul 8%
Rudy Giuliani 6%
Duncan Hunter 1%