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The last three polls have had Huck +5, +6, & +6.
Insider Advantage Iowa GOP Caucus Poll, conducted January 1st, 2008
- Mike Huckabee 30.0%
- Mitt Romney 24.1%
- Fred Thompson 11.3%
- John McCain 10.9%
- Ron Paul 7%
- Rudy Giuliani 4.8%
- Duncan Hunter 1.3%
- Undecided 10.5%
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:04 pm
HUCKABOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!
It’s coming in just a few hours!!!!!!
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:05 pm
Crazy….
But we’ll know in just a few hours.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:05 pm
The two other key questions:
1. Who will win between Thompson and McCain?
2. Who will win between Guiliani and Hunter?
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:07 pm
How high will Paul go? Im betting for a # 3 – his supporters are not begin polled…
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:07 pm
This is crap. No real voters are answering phones on New Years Day.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:07 pm
Who is Huckabee?
http://www.taxhikemike.org
Huckabee Has Clintonesque Ethics Problems
http://youtube.com/watch?v=NnZcfZukQss
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:07 pm
3,
That’s a big thing too. That has huge implications for the rest of the race on who gets 3rd and just how far down Rudy finishes.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:07 pm
All the polls this close are crap, the caucus is 5 hours away. Let them decide
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:08 pm
Who will Thompson & Hunter Endorse? Anyone but Romney & Huckabee… please!
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:08 pm
#5 – why not?
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:09 pm
I get the sense that the Rombots are defensive and deflated today.
Why?
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:11 pm
I hope Huckabee wins the nomination. We can prove once and for all that running a campaign on social agenda and “Christian street-cred” no longer works. He would get KILLED in a general.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Someone indicated on another thread that Hunter would endorse Huckabee, based on praise he’s had for him (I don’t know), and the conventional wisdom is that Thompson endorses McCain.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:15 pm
I think these polls through the holidays are bad because Iowans with the income to do so are not in town for most of the holidays. Those who cannot afford to travel elsewhere are the ones who are at home answering phones. I think this is the case for a lot of people.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:18 pm
Does this final poll do anything to influence the expectations game… If Huckabee gets second does that ruin him for the rest of the contest?
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:19 pm
If I were Romney I would want to be in 2nd in this poll before voting begins so it looks like he’s the underdog. The only problem with that story though is everyone knows he spent nearly 10 million to do it, won the Straw Poll decidedly, and he held over 200 events in Iowa. So is Romney finished potentially if he gets a second place here?
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:21 pm
I LOVE THESE POLLS……
The Huckster SHOULD win now, right….
The expectations game, baby….
THE HUCK-A-BUST is TONIGHT!!
Mark My Words……
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:22 pm
#17 Welcome back Abe! we missed in the other more violent thread.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:22 pm
“I get the sense that the Rombots are defensive and deflated today.”
Expectations game, effendi. In their touchingly naive way they’re setting us up to declare victory whatever the outcome. Anyway, whatever. I will kiss Gov. Huckabee on the mouth if he steals Iowa from Romney what with how massively Romney has overspent in the state.
And if Romney prevails then we fight another day, just like always.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:24 pm
I just talked to my aunt in Iowa – she was going to caucus for Huckabee tonight, but after seeing all these polls today with Huckabee ahead, she’s decided to get her hair done instead. I told her not to worry about it since Huckabee already has this thing wrapped up.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:24 pm
#19 – how true
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Abe,
Any updates on the McPlosion?
Who says Romney fans are depressed? I’m downright giddy. This is what we’ve been waiting for all year.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Tex,
It’s like the Super Bowl, World Series, and Indy 500 all rolled into one!
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Romney did certainly outspend everyone else, but he had no natural base to tap into that was large like the evangelicals. Huckabee and his army of pastors have tapped into the their base using church services and deception to do so. Yes, I said deception. The pastors are holding focuos groups and are diseminating blatantly false information in order to help get the people to vote for Huckabee. I have read articles on these groups, and thjey are denying any of of Huck’s previous positions, and when questions are raised, they just say that it isn’t true and was made up by the press.
Romney does not have this kind of base. Iowa is different because of this base, and that’s why Robertson won here as well. If Mitt comes in 2nd, it will still speak highly of his abilities.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Hah, evil FCOH.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Landslide tonight boys. Mike Huckabee is leading a revolution of the Republican party which will put it in power for years.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:40 pm
#26. Huckabee is leading a revolution in an attempt to do to the republican party what he did to it in Arkansas – ruin it. I don’t think he’ll get too far. The Iowa nominee never gets the presidency.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:43 pm
There it is… if Huckabee doesn’t win by a landslide… it will be an upset. All Romney has to do is keep it within 4-6 points and its a disappointment for the Huckabee camp. Then where does he go? NH where he is in single digits… and Romney just lost his firewall state of IA. Both are doomed.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:43 pm
Greg,
“The Iowa nominee never gets the presidency.”
Didn’t Dole win Iowa in ‘96? And Bush in ‘00?
As I recall, NH picked Buchanan and McCain in those years.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:44 pm
27, the fact of the matter is a vast majority of Americans hold to traditional moral values and through those values hold to a populist economic view. This includes many who have traditionally voted Republican in the past based on being very turned off by the liberal social agenda of the Democrats. But having given their support to the GOP and then watched them do absolutely nothing to correct the social ills of this country, many are leaving the party and will give the Democrats a majority for decades if the GOP doesn’t shift on some of its economic policies.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:46 pm
28, no… then Huckabee goes to SC, then he goes to Florida, and then he takes every single state south of the Mason-Dixon line where he is absolutely cleaning up in the polls that have been taken. New England is meaningless in GOP primary politics and you know it.
January 3rd, 2008 at 2:59 pm
huckrpres, what good is being in power if we have become as democrats?
huck is a pro life liberal that hates wealthy people and wants to burden those who drive our economy and create growth and jobs.
huckabee is a disaster. cany anybody imagine huckabee as commander in cheif. he would get SLAUGHTERED in a general election. Doesn’t matter though. He is a one hit wonder.
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:05 pm
So, as Rasmussen Reports first noted several weeks ago, those who want pre-caucus polls to tell them who will in Iowa are sure to be sorely disappointed. Consider the results from four years ago. Five firms released polls in the final week of the campaign and showed John Kerry’s support ranging from 21% to 26%. Kerry was slightly ahead of Dean in three polls while Dean had a statistically meaningless lead in two others.
The end result? Kerry outperformed the polls by double digits and ended up with 37.6% of the delegates. He more than doubled the 18.0% support picked up by Dean. John Edwards came in second even though four of the five polled showed Dean narrowly on top of Edwards.
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:06 pm
Yes, the FairTax would be such a burden on the economy and would halt growth.
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:08 pm
My predictions for tonight:
Huckabee 37%
Romney 22%
McCain 16%
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:10 pm
Go Huckabee! Although, I can’t support him beyond Iowa (because of his underhanded tactics), I want him to knock out Mitt.
January 3rd, 2008 at 3:43 pm
How devastating would be if the McRino finish 5 behind Thompson and Ron Paul?…That could be a victory for Romney if Obama wins in the Dem race.