January 3, 2008

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (1/3)

Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

  • Mitt Romney 18%
  • John McCain 17%
  • Mike Huckabee 16%
  • Rudy Giuliani 13%
  • Fred Thompson 13%
  • Ron Paul 7%

Survey includes approximately 600 Likely Republican Primary Voters. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

by @ 11:02 am. Filed under Poll Watch
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78 Responses to “Poll Watch: Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (1/3)”

  1. UA Says:

    wow – quite the shake up

  2. Brendan - Mitt 08 Says:

    ROFL – say it isn’t so!

    Mitt on top for the first time ever and on caucus day!

    Silly polls

  3. Brett Passmore Says:

    Wow – Good job Mitt! Welcome to the top! It is nice – we were there for several weeks ourselves – Congratulations!

  4. fredo Says:

    Interesting. Rudy and Fred support moving to Mitt. I wonder if this is the start of the anti-maverick (Huck, McCain) movement to coalesce around one candidate.

  5. Matt in Maine Says:

    I’m a big Mitt fan, but why waste the money on a national poll? Is anyone other than us fanatics aware that there is an election in 11 months? I don’t know what I’m going to be doing this weekend.

  6. steve Says:

    rudy at 13? wow

  7. Chris Says:

    The race is too fluid for national polls to mean much. Everyone seems to think their guy is going to have a blow-out win in Iowa and New Hampshire and the opponents will flame out. The reality? Nationally, the top five are effectively tied. In Iowa and New Hampshire the top two are effectively tied. There will be no blow-outs this year. This will be a long an drawn out battle for many months.

  8. ilfigo Says:

    Congrats to Mitt…but this poll is too whacky for me…Tonight will be a big night for 2 people (1st and 3rd). Hopefully it is Mitt, but we shall see.

  9. MattyN Says:

    Is there any polling out of Wyoming? The caucus is on Saturday and the only candidates who’ve really campaigned there have been Thompson, Hunter, and Romney.

  10. nowandlater Says:

    NO!

  11. Benjamin Says:

    Romney will probably win Wyoming.

  12. Bwett Says:

    Could be the final changing of the front runner if Romney wins tonight.

  13. Abe Says:

    This is meaningless……

    And yet THE HUCK-A-BUST is ALMOST HERE!!

    A part of me will miss the ol’ Huckster when he’s gone…(I think he’ll still do the NH debate)….

    But I won’t miss the anti-Mormon comments allowed on Huck’s website….

  14. Kavon W. Nikrad Says:

    There is no need to poll WY. It is not a traditional caucus or primary.

  15. Aron Goldman Says:

    Intrade Update

    GOP Nomination

    John McCain 27.4
    Rudy Giuliani 24.4
    Mitt Romney 21.0
    Mike Huckabee 11.9
    Ron Paul 7.5
    Fred Thompson 3.0

    GOP Iowa Caucus

    Mike Huckabee 59.7
    Mitt Romney 36.0

    GOP New Hampshire Primary

    John McCain 55.0
    Mitt Romney 34.9

  16. Eric Says:

    Can someone tell me why we look at national polls? It isn’t how we nominate a candidate and it isn’t how we elect a president.

  17. Swint Says:

    Good for Mitt, but I fear that without a W tonight, it won’t last.

  18. BarkTwiggs Says:

    This is crazy. It’s like they’re playing musical chairs with the top poll positions.

  19. cwpete Says:

    I think 18% is the highest Romney has ever polled for the Rasmussen daily presidential tracking polls. Nice to see him take the lead on caucus night.

  20. Brett Passmore Says:

    #18 – it just show us that their is NO FRONT RUNNER, but a FRONT GROUP!

  21. fran Says:

    Any Iowa polls being released today?

  22. random Says:

    Historically the party that decides the candidate first wins the general. The republicans have the chance to do this tonight. If Romney wins Iowa, it is over; he is the nominee. And we win the general.

    Meanwhile the democrats will likely still be in disarray, that is unless Iowan Republicans are foolish and go with non-starter, Huckabee.

    GO MITT!!!

  23. steve Says:

    22- good point. McCain and huck can not win the national election. They will not have the conservative commentators behind them and therefor no way to rally the base.

  24. IAHawk Says:

    I think the surprise of the night will be that Huck comes in third. I can’t wait to get to the caucus and see how my precent turns out. In my little area of Iowa I haven’t heard of any Huck supporters.

  25. Brett Passmore Says:

    #22, 23 – why do you have the opposite impression of Mitt? this seems like a double standard – and a dumb one at that.
    Mitt has the highest UNFAVORABLE RATINGS of any candidate on the republican ticket. PEOPLE DONT TRUST HIM by and large. And for good reason – he has proven himself untrustworthy.
    People want an authentic candidate – that person can not be found in a man that has to take a poll to figure out where he stands.
    Mitt is doomed to fail. You are just delaying the inevitable.
    If I had a choice in Candidates right now it would be:

    1. Huckabee
    2. Thompson
    3. McCain
    4. Paul
    5. Romney
    6. Rudy

    Romney keeps going down further and further. If he keeps this track up, ill vote D over R in the next election.

  26. jack Says:

    #24 IAHawk,
    Please tell me that Fred will come in second!!

  27. Abe Says:

    IAHawk…..

    The Huckster will get at least 25% and that will ensure a 2nd place finish……

    But don’t worry…. Mitt takes the GOLD!!

  28. MWS Says:

    Rudy Who? is at 13%!!!

    Good luck with that firewall!

  29. Abe Says:

    Brett,

    Are you trying to turn me into one of those…

    “I’ll vote Hillary before the Huckster” people…

    Because the thought has crossed my mind….

  30. SDGOP Says:

    Brett,
    You forget, there are millions of us fiscal conservatives who would refuse to vote for huck in a general (see 1992). I dislike mccain and disagree with rudy, but i would vote for them in the general because at least they stand for a good chunk of what i believe in. Huck on the other hand is a pro life liberal.

  31. IAHawk Says:

    26
    I can tell you that I’ll be working hard for Fred tonight, 2nd would be great!!!! And Abe if there is a HUCKABUST then how can you predict 25%? I’m thinking more around the 18-20% tops for Huck.

  32. steve Says:

    25 brett – you are a minority. most poeple who study polotics and are conservative would take any of the top republican candidates over Huck. ITs just that simple. You cant win a national election without us.

  33. MattyN Says:

    #14 Kavon, I don’t quite follow. I don’t know a great deal about Wyoming’s caucus on Saturday…at all. Hadn’t seen it mentioned much of anywhere.

  34. Bwett Says:

    25, I’m not sure where you’re from by your wide-eyed naivte is a little disconcerting. Take a look around at the conservative “voice” over the last couple of weeks. They haven’t agreed on a whole lot so far concerning the election, but the one thing they do agree on in overwhelming numbers is that a Huckabee nomination would spell disaster for the GOP. Huckabee’s folksy, non-conservative brand of populist schtick is more than just off-putting, it’s downright offensive. If you want to see people staying home on election night, or voting for a third party candidate, then nominate Huckabee. Romney will garner support on both sides of the aisle, and will solidify the base once the silly bickering is put aside. Huckabee has no shot at doing that. I know you’re a rabid supporter, but your views are just ludicrous. However, I can see why you’re considering voting Hillary over Romney, given how similar Huckabee is to her.

  35. Brett Passmore Says:

    #29 and # 30 – If Romney gets the nod, then i will have to do some serious praying.
    I cannot trust Romney any further than I can throw him, and a cant vote for Rudy.

    Mike is getting a bad rap because the established media (whether that be MSM, Bloggers, Radio, or what-have-you) cant shape and mold him into their model.
    Mike has a great track record of improving Arkansas and the people loved him. You don’t get that from being an a$$hole like most people on here think that he is. Those distortions help to diminish him.
    Besides, Bloomberg will steal the fiscal votes when the time comes – I still think that both the republicans and the democrats will both split – maybe fiscal/social, or fiscal/military-social on the R side and the Dems will crack with the radical left (Sheehan types) and the mainstream Hillary types. I think that Edwards/ Obama would do best to stop that from happening, in fact I see that coming out of the party, but they will still fracture. Just like we are fracturing.
    We (Mike Supporters) trust Huckabee – as well as several million other people trust him. Its going to be a long hard road.

  36. Abe Says:

    IAHawk,

    Don’t get me wrong…..I would love for the Huckster to not break 20%….but I still do have a pinky-toe dipped in Reality….

    The HUCK-A-BUST simply means, as I haver stated before…..

    That the Huckster loses Iowa, and his serious run at the nomination is essentially over from Iowa on…..

    It ends as quickly as it began for him…..

  37. Bwett Says:

    Huckabee’s rise is indicative of a much greater problem in today’s Republican party. The left is correct to point out the inbalance of the party as related to the power and influence of the extreme religious right. I’m not speaking of value voters, or those who support and advocate tranditional christian-judeo ethics, but those that take their advocacy to the extreme. Huckabee supporters are by and large indifferent to the line between church and state, and are openly and wantonly using religion as a barometer for fitness for office. They don’t care for logic, or real parsing of the issues, they want a fellow “believer” because they think they’re particular brand of Christianity is right and everyone is wrong, to the point that the non-believers are more likely than not being led by the devil. I find this type of backward thinking dispicable. Huckabee represents everything that is wrong with the Republican party. In my mind, anyone would be a better candidate, even Paul. Huckabee must be stopped at all costs. Fortuneately, most rational people agree that he has no shot at winning outside of Iowa, and so there is no real, immediate threat. However, it would be a real shame if Romney’s chance at fighting for the nomination was halted early because of this right-wing lunacy.

  38. Jared Says:

    I guess we can say if Mitt goes down in flames, we saw him on top nationally for 1 day! :)

  39. IAHawk Says:

    35
    Don’t you find it a little disconcerting that your boy has only been on the national stage for a few months and he already has trust issues?

  40. Colin Jones Says:

    ARG latest poll says Huck leading Mitt 29-24. Fred – 13, JMac – 11 and Rudy – 8; FWIW Hunter is at 4.
    http://americanresearchgroup.com/

  41. Brett Passmore Says:

    #34 – rabid. Nice – lets raise the discourse here people.
    I could fall to the lowest common denominator too – let’s not do that please.
    I support Huck. I know him, I have friends that worked with him, I think he is an upright guy. I’m not rabid. You use that term to show a brainless fawning response – that is not the case. Just because I do not believe the distortions doesn’t mean I am rabid.
    I think I am one of the more open minded bloggers here – I have been told that by several people as well.
    Huck has a history of pulling the minority votes, the independent vote, and honestly both the republican and democratic vote.
    A huge block of the evangelicals will never vote for Romney. IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH RELIGION, so don’t call me a bigot. I have 2 best friends that are Mormon – we just agree to disagree on thing. They both HATE Romney because he keeps making himself up. They are Fred supporters.

  42. Adam Says:

    Colin,

    Yeah but the last ARG poll had Romney up 9.

  43. IAHawk Says:

    36
    Maybe I’m talking from the heart and not my head. Will both know in about 9 hours.

  44. Bwett Says:

    Brett, I find your characterization of Romney to be silly, and offensive. You claim that we’ve all been fooled by the MSM into believing that Huckabee can’t win in the general election. But you are fully willing to swallow hook line and sinker the “flip flop” charges against Romney. Give one, just one, solid example of something Romney has said that you think justifies your charge that he “just can’t be trusted.” You’re claiming the man is a liar. You’re making the charge that he is lying solely to gain political office. I think your claims lack weight, and further think there is something more behind your distaste for Romney. I think the “can’t be trusted” meme is simply pretextual for something else, some ugly reason you’re not willing to share.

  45. Colin Jones Says:

    well, Mason-Dixon also had Romney up 9. Of course ARG has got a bad reputation of all polls.

  46. Rich Says:

    It is correct that if Yucakbee wins tonight, and it becomes a death nell to Romney, then the conservative movement in the US is in deep trouble. Count me another who will vote Obama before Huckabee!

  47. steve Says:

    35 – brett
    “Mike is getting a bad rap because the established media (whether that be MSM, Bloggers, Radio, or what-have-you) cant shape and mold him into their model.”

    Its not their model its the conservative model and he doesnt follow it.
    All the people who have studied the conservative model for the last 50 years all say he isnt conservative. Its that simple

    He has every right not to be a full spectrum conservative but dont sit here and try and tell me he is when his record clearly shows he isnt.

  48. Brett Passmore Says:

    #37
    Huckabee represents everything that is wrong with the Republican party
    I think that Romney represents everything that is wrong with the Republican party. He is a liberal lying to be conservative.

  49. Katrina Says:

    Brett, besides disagreeing with some of Huckabee’s more liberal stances, there are some
    who do not trust Huckabee because of his seemingly underhanded way of playing anti-Mormon
    sentiment to his favor. What is your take on that?

  50. Brett Passmore Says:

    #44 – pretextual for something else, some ugly reason you’re not willing to share – please help me here – what is your impression because i do not have the writing skills or intellectual prowess to describe my thought process and logic, but must know something I don’t. Please help me.

  51. Adam Says:

    This is bad for Romney. He is now losing by 3.0 in the RCP average. Huckabee leads by 5 in the ARG poll (Romney led by 9 in their poll last week). The new Insider Advantage Poll has Huckabee winning by 6 and this morning’s Zogby tracking poll also shows Huck leading by 6.

  52. ilfigo Says:

    Brett…what liberal issues did Romney pursue in Mass as Governor?

    IS that why liberal Mass. didn’t overwhelmingly support him?

    And Huckabee, how is his record? Is it conservative? Or are there enough excuses for going against conservative values? Democrats have excuses as well??

  53. Abe Says:

    You guys…..

    Be nice to Brett…..

    I think he is the only Huck-supporter left around here…..

  54. Bwett Says:

    41, I have trouble believing any Mormon would “HATE” Romney because “he keeps making himself up.” In fact, I’m not even sure what that means. But yes, let’s talk about raising the level of discourse. You’re posts seem to have a familiar refrain. Attack Romney’s character. Essentially, your entire argument for why not to vote for Romney is that he’s a liar. You don’t think he’s trustworthy. That is character assassination at its finest, and without any evidence to back it up. My claims are that Huckabee’s view are out of the mainstream, and that his folksy non-conservativism will be soundly rejected in a general election. That is an argument based on substance. You may not be a biggot, but you certainly are unwilling to engage in a real discussion. Apparently, it’s easier to stay “above the frey” on your high horse taking character shots at competitiors.

    And one more thing, wouldn’t it be easy of me to turn the tables and say Huckabee too simply cannot be trusted. Over the last week, the man elected to run a negative ad against Romney, then elected not to run it “because he would lose his soul,” then showed it anyway, and then ran the ad nonetheless. In addition, he denies having increased spending in Ark, denies giving away benefits to the children of illegal immigrants, and denies raising taxes. You think this is how an honest politician acts? Really?

  55. ilfigo Says:

    brett you are spewing lies about Romney, which is funny and hypocritical since you complain that Huck has been mischaracterized by the MSM.

    If you want sympathy, stop doing it at other candidates.

  56. Adam Says:

    Huck leads Romney in IA 63-36 on In Trade

  57. Brett Passmore Says:

    #54, 55, and others OK – ill stop posting on this thread per your requests.

  58. steve Says:

    53 abe you are right.
    Huck is so cute I love his dimples and googly eyes. He looked just like elmer fudd in his hunting cap the other day.

  59. ilfigo Says:

    No Brett, that is not what we are asking, we ae asking for your to support your personal attacks with facts.

    U too scared to do so…

  60. Colin Jones Says:

    #45. correction; Romney was up by 4 in M-D poll.

  61. Brett Passmore Says:

    #59 – scared – no – busy at work, yes -

  62. Bwett Says:

    57, No one requested your to stop posting. If this is what you got from my post, then I question your reading comprehension skills. I’d love to hear your arguments supporting your view that Romney is “a liberal lying to get the conservative vote.” That’s a pretty nasty accusation there, one that I would think an honest person, someone with integrity, would be willing to back up. Are you such a person?

  63. Brett Passmore Says:

    #62, Here is a primer: http://race42008.com/2008/01/03/mitt-romney-will-never-be-president/
    After that, use this: http://massresistance.org/romney/warning_letter_jan08.html
    Then use this: http://www.trueromney.com/

  64. Mike F Says:

    I find Romney impressive. He has performed exceptionally throughout his life (e.g., valedictorian in college, top 10% at Harvard Law School, honors in the Harvard MBA program, and an impressive string of successes in diverse real-world contexts (business, Olympics, state government). However, I will still be amazed (and somewhat in awe) if he pulls off a victory tonight. I am afraid that Brett may be characteristic of too many of Huckabee’s Iowa supporters–unable to rationally evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the various candidates.

    A victory for Huckabee in Iowa will certainly not result in Huckabee being the front-runner for the nomination. Abe’s Huch-bust will eventually come win or lose tonight. Given the compressed level of support for the various “top-tier” candidates, the reality is that Romney no longer has to win Iowa and/or New Hampshire. If he continues to place second to different candidates, along with a couple of wins in the early states, he will continue to build momentum and support going into South Carolina, Florida, and then super Tuesday.

    Those of you who are anxious to write Romney off in the next week are dreaming (even if your hopes for Huckabee and McCain victories are realized).

    Romney is a highly-competent, highly-intelligent, full-spectrum conservative and his stature relative to his opponents will become increasingly obvious as the nomination process moves forward.

  65. ilfigo Says:

    Ahhh Brett…you can’t think on your own…every candidate has anti- sites. WONDERFUL!!! You definitely demonstrate yourself as a true thinker…

  66. Mike F Says:

    BTW, some have commented that Romney must be blowing smoke to assert that he doesn’t have to win Iowa and New Hampshire.

    This realization came to me yesterday morning and I was stoked to see Romney’s comments on ABC saying the same thing.

    This is a chess game and Team Romney does not have one strategy–their strategy will alter as the board changes.

    By playing hard in Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney has become a top contender. No other candidate will place both first and second in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Romney is in it for the long haul.

  67. Mike F Says:

    last line in #66 should read: No other candidate will place EITHER first or second…

  68. MetroRepublican Says:

    It’s OK for Mitt to lead this once, on the day he loses IA, and 5 days before he is forced to drop out of the race.

  69. Bwett Says:

    Metro, I’m waiting for the shock and awe. Can I expect it anyday now?

  70. matt Says:

    so in 7 days huck, rudy, mccain, and now mitt flopper have all led this poll. safe to say scott rasmussen is eitehr a comedian or a drunk.

  71. bethtopaz Says:

    #13 – Abe – I know you will miss the old Huckster, but maybe after last night’s fabulous performance on Jay Leno, who knows, maybe he’ll sit in for Leno or maybe even play in his band! If they get both Huckabee and Bill in the band they can rename Leno’s band, the Hopeless Dopes from Hope Band.

  72. Robin Says:

    Folks, I am sitting here in a heavily evangelical city in Indiana. There are people here who are mistrustful of Mormons. However, many people here I have talked to are disgusted with how Mike Huckabee has handled his campaign. Also, I talked with a young man the other evening who says he is a libertarian. You should have seen his face when we started talking about Huckabee. He was disgusted with him.

  73. Robin Says:

    Folks, I am sitting here in a heavily evangelical city in Indiana. There are people here who are mistrustful of Mormons. However, many people here I have talked to are disgusted with how Mike Huckabee has handled his campaign. Also, I talked with a young man the other evening who says he is a libertarian. You should have seen his face when we started talking about Huckabee. Even I was surprised at the measure of dislike he had for Huckabee because of the type of person he has turned out to be. I thought it was just going to be Romney supporters who felt this way. Not so.

  74. Robin Says:

    Sorry for the double post. I was not quite finished revising my comment and hit the wrong button. My second post was how I wanted to finish.

  75. jrcutler Says:

    National polls finally starting to look like early state polls.

  76. Robin Says:

    I’ve decided I am not very good at this type of thing, and will probably not post anymore. I have done so because of my strong feelings for what is going on. I will leave the blogging to you more experienced and capable young people.

  77. Brian Says:

    Wow I’m actually really scared reading these comments. Our party is completely split and that makes me think that the Democrats are going to win. I haven’t felt that way yet, but right now it started to feel that way- with so many people threatening to jump ship on the party if some cadidate wins. It’s starting to look like we’re all screwed people.

  78. Keven J Says:

    Romney being ahead in the Rasmussen poll on the very day of the Iowa
    caucus reminds me of the Iranian hostages being returned on the very day
    of Reagan’s inauguration in 1981. I don’t know if it is a good or bad sign
    for Mitt but I can’t believe this is coincidence.

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