January 3, 2008

Race 4 2008 GOP Iowa Caucuses Open Forum Part II

Continued here…

by @ 9:58 pm. Filed under 2008 Misc.
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393 Responses to “Race 4 2008 GOP Iowa Caucuses Open Forum Part II”

  1. David Says:

    Nobody should ever doubt a Des Moines register poll again - they absolutely NAILED both sides of this election.

  2. Kris Says:

    FYI…. Republican registered voters in NH favored McCain by 8+ points over GWB in 2000. Mitt Romney doesn’t have the hardcore conservative support Bush had in 2000, and remember you have Giuliani, Huckabee, Paul and Thompson in the mix to further split the vote. If Mitt Romney loses New Hampshire; his support in South Carolina and Nevada will be gone. Michigan will be his only hope… he’ll probably have to drop out after Florida.

  3. Swint Says:

    Indeed they did.

  4. Patrick Says:

    McCain is less than 300 votes behind Thompson now….

  5. ThatLibertarianGuy Says:

    David, yes they did.

  6. Brett Passmore Says:

    McCain takes NH - i guarantee it.

  7. Brian Says:

    Huckabee is getting a nice bounce (for him) in fundraising tonight. Not Ron Pauleseque, but quite healthy.

  8. Kris Says:

    So I don’t buy that McCain will “need” strong support from IND voters in NH.

  9. Tom Says:

    what happened to the Huckabust?

  10. MetroRepublican Says:

    David, so did I…..

    Hoping Matt Miller gives credit to those of us who nearly nailed this. I don’t think anyone here was closer than I was.

  11. Swint Says:

    Kris, your right, if Mitt loses NH, MI is all he’s got. If he goes on to lose that, he is done. This is why, people like Texas Conservative need to relax, and not run to McCain at the first sign of trouble. It is not looking good for Mitt, but he is not dead yet.

  12. ThatLibertarianGuy Says:

    #6 - I guarantee it, too.

    Rudy’s on TV! :)

  13. Brian Says:

    Fox News has Rudy. Ridiculous. Hizzoner got crushed.

  14. JayPe Says:

    Brett has gaurenteed a NH win, so we can all go home now :)

    But seriously, he is certainly in the box seat. Mitt will have to campaign very well to knock him over.

  15. Ryan Says:

    I think the main reason why Huckabee won is that he’s an evangelical Christian. I mean he has other good qualities but the #1 reason is that he’s evangelical and anybody who says otherwise is full of it. And when you have 60% of voters evangelical tonight, I’m surprised he didn’t win by more to be honest.

  16. steve Says:

    7% is no blow out. especially when 60% of the voters go to the same church as Huck. MItt is still strong in NH and all the early states. This thing is not even close to over. If he loses in NH I will concede but he is far from that now.

    Matthew you are a fence walker and a fair weather fan you should be ashamed of yourself for jumping to McCain so quickly - that goes for tex conservative as well.

  17. RayinNH Says:

    Tonight was not a good night for Gov Romney. Let’s see what happens over the next 5 days leading up to NH.

  18. Patrick Says:

    Well, I think it’s a given that McCain wins NH now. Winning NH, he’ll also win MI and have a great shot in SC. I don’t know who will win NV though.

  19. ThatLibertarianGuy Says:

    David, so did I….. Hoping Matt Miller gives credit to those of us who nearly nailed this. I don’t think anyone here was closer than I was.

    You did nail it, Metro. Or rather, InTrade did! :)

    The lesson: No one should doubt InTrade.

  20. Texas Conservative Says:

    I’m seeing 72% reporting:

    Mike Huckabee- 32%
    Mitt Romney -25%
    Fred Thompson- 14%
    John McCain -13%
    Ron Paul -10%
    Rudy Giuliani -4%
    Duncan Hunter- 1%
    Tom Tancredo- 1% ?????????????????????

    Kavon, not exactly double digit lead for Huck…

    Not to brag, but my numbers were very close to these…

  21. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    This is seriously disheartening for the Conservative movement.

    Iowans have picked a man who is a tax-raiser, and a supporter of aid to illegal immigrants, and the man who stands most to benefit from it is a man who opposed the tax cuts that turned the economy around, and who supports (or at least did this summer), amnesty for illegal immigrants.

  22. Brett Passmore Says:

    http://www.ronpaulgraphs.com/rp_vs_huck_today.html
    Donations are jumping….

  23. Swint Says:

    #6 & 11,

    the odds certainly are in McCain’s favor.

    But that doesn’t mean Mitt should just throw in the towel.

  24. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    Fox News has yet to mention that Rudy was more then doubled up by Ron Paul.

  25. Paul S Says:

    The signs at the state line are being changed to say Welcome to HuckOwa.

  26. JayPe Says:

    What is Rudy doing on TV? He’s at 4% !!

    Perhaps they should interview Ron Paul, he got 10%. But then, if he can’t get to a debate, he probalby can’t get an interview either.

  27. Swint Says:

    Metro,
    you are a very impressive individual, congrats for nailing it.

  28. Abe Says:

    THIS WAS SURE DANG FUN WHILE IT LASTED…..

    I hope I didn’t annoy too many people TOO MUCH…..

    THANKS Everybody for putting up with my enthusiasm…..

    YOU WIN…..I LOSE….

    Congratulations, to the Huckster and to Brett……

  29. Brian Says:

    Most of the Southern states are going to be 40% + evangelical. What we really need to know is how many non-evangelicals went for Huckabee. No one is reporting on that yet, though.

  30. SGSFromLaptop Says:

    Kavon, I threw in Pat’s name off the top of my head, because the internet is horribly slow everywhere. I did not want to go and look at the Iowa history. MetroRepublican and the like have claimed often that the candidates who were embraced by the evangelicals often get about 35% of the caucus votes. It looks like that way. Am I mistaken?

  31. Jack Says:

    I was hoping that it would come down “the best man wins” on super tuesday. Now I think it will come down to 2 good men and 1 average guy on super tuesday.

  32. Texas Conservative Says:

    Brett, thanks to the link to the anti-Huck site :P

    BTW, the Rudy ad they mentioned was aired here in Texas earlier…

  33. Swint Says:

    If McCain wins the nom, it will certainly validate that the GOP always nominates the early favorite.

    It’s a shame.

  34. ThatLibertarianGuy Says:

    I hope I didn’t annoy too many people TOO MUCH…..
    THANKS Everybody for putting up with my enthusiasm…..
    YOU WIN…..I LOSE….
    Congratulations, to the Huckster and to Brett……

    Aw, poor Abe. :(

    You made this site more entertaining over the past month.

  35. Adam Says:

    McCain is only 210 votes behind Thompson with 74 % in.

  36. Swint Says:

    Abe, you too need to hold strong until after Michigan.

  37. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    If McCain gets the nomination, the whole Conservative movement goes to hell in a handbasket.

  38. SGSFromLaptop Says:

    Are we still at 72%? Dems has been jumping a point every 5 minutes or so, but we have been stuck that way for a long time now. Any update from TV?

  39. Abe Says:

    TLG,

    My wife is even feeling sorry for me…..(with a smile on my face)

  40. Adam Says:

    ACT,

    I don’t know why you are so negative on McCain. He has an ACU rating of 83. Your guy has been way more wishy washy over the last decade.

  41. Paul S Says:

    Wellll…hello Abe. Kudos to you for showing up. What are you going to change your screen name to so that you can come back as a Huckabee supporter?

  42. MWS Says:

    Romney’s Intrade for NH is down to 20.

  43. Patrick Says:

    ACT,

    Bull. If McCain gets the nomination it will be the pinnacle of the career for a man who will save this country from the direction extremists want to take it.

  44. JayPe Says:

    Swint (#33) most front runners don’t win like this though.

  45. Adam Says:

    Haha. there you go Abe. Play the “sympathy” card. At least you have something to look forward to tonight :-)

    J/k.

  46. Swint Says:

    Actually, that is true with McCain, Rudy, or Huck.

    OK, now I am starting to get ticked off and am turning into a sore loser, so I am hitting the hay.

    Congrats to Huck and McCain…to TLG, Metro, Adam, etc. Enjoy your victory.

  47. Abe Says:

    Paul S,

    No, Sorry, not going to change sides….

    I am still a Romney supporter….

  48. Adam Says:

    Swint,

    Thanks. And to all of the Romnewy supporters that stayed here and kept up with the discussion on what must have been a tough night, you all have character. For real.

  49. Swint Says:

    #44, that’s true, McCain’s comeback is one for the history books. I am astounded…and it was completely media made. good for them.

  50. Abe Says:

    Adam,

    You think I’m kidding……

  51. jaaron Says:

    well, i was a bit off…sad day for the GOP.

  52. ThatLibertarianGuy Says:

    OMG.

    SEAN HANNITY

    JUST USED

    THE TERM

    HUCK-A-BUST

    ON TV.

    !!!!!

    Abe, you have a consolation prize.

  53. shiggz Says:

    metro why are you celebrating i thought you were a rudy guy?

  54. Paul S Says:

    That’s OK, Abe. There’s still time for you.

  55. JayPe Says:

    Looks like JMac will overhaul FDT. Only 180 behind.

    And what’s with Clinton, she’s 3rd on votes but 2nd on delegates according to USA Today. Very strange.

  56. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    Do you people really trust McCain not to support a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants?

  57. Abe Says:

    TLG,

    But why did he use it….(I don’t have cable)

    Wasn’t this MY WORST NIGHTMARE….

    THE ROM-NA-BUST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

  58. Jared Says:

    I think you will see a more concerted effort by Rudy and McCain to quell the Huckabee momentum. Romney is far from dead, but he is hurt badly with this loss. NH will be crucial for Romney to do well in. He will likely get a small headline from WY in the next couple of days. And MI is going to be a big state for him as well. I thought it was notable though, that on the ticker for Foxnews, it kept scrolling, “Iowa’s ability to pick the winner in November . . not so hot” Then it went on to point out, that the winner in Iowa has rarely gone on to win the nomination. Any thoughts there?

  59. MWS Says:

    Abe,

    You’re a good sport.

    :-)

  60. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    steve,

    “Matthew you are a fence walker and a fair weather fan you should be ashamed of yourself for jumping to McCain so quickly - that goes for tex conservative as well.”

    I’m not a “fair weather” fan. I’m simply rabidly opposed to Huckabee. I will be voting for Barack Obama in November if Huckabee is the nominee. I ultimately decided to back Romney (a month ago) in large part because he looked like the person best positioned to stop Huckabee. That no longer seems to be the case. If this race didn’t involve Huckabee; if he wasn’t such a threat to win the nomination, my decision would be significantly easier. But, he is a threat, and that complicates things considerably.

  61. SGSFromLaptop Says:

    Shiggz, Metro will celebrate for anyone, as long as it is not Mitt. He hates him even more than he dislikes Huckabee.

  62. LJ Says:

    I. Am. Speechless.

    MSNBC just said that the Democratic turnout is estimated at 212,000! The previous high was 145,000. That’s stunning. No wonder Obama blew everyone away.

    I’m also hearing that Huckabee won twice as many evangelicals as Bush did in 2000. Who would have thought that Huck would win by 9 points?! 9!

  63. Texas Conservative Says:

    Haha Hannity said Huck-a-bust

    And whats with the music at the Edwards HQ… I laughed out loud…

  64. Paul8148 Says:

    By the way it looks like despite the fell of not breaking 90,000 it looks like we there and closing in on a 100,000 voters on the Republican side.

  65. MJ Says:

    McCain will likely take 3rd…this just about ices NH for Romney. I think this thing is now a 3 way race between McCain, Rudy, and Huck.

  66. MetroRepublican Says:

    shiggz, because Rudy needed Huck to win in IA.

  67. Swint Says:

    By the way, Fred could be the real loser, he may not even be in the race in a couple of days.
    I’d rather be Mitt. Alright, good night for real this time.

  68. SGSFromLaptop Says:

    LJ, is that good or bad? With Huckabee winning twice as many evangelicals as Bush did? Won’t it give our party too much of religious tip?

  69. Abe Says:

    Paul S,

    Thanks, but I think you’ll be waiting a long time…….

  70. Paul S Says:

    Huckabee 1
    Limbaugh 0

  71. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    For all of you who defend McCain, do you really trust him not to support legalization for the illegals?

  72. Texas Conservative Says:

    Abe is an incredible sport.

    Good for you Abe.

  73. RayinNH Says:

    Adam,
    Thanks for the compliment. I look forward to next Tuesday night and doing this all over again - but I’ll probably be at the Romney HQ that evening so I won’t get to chat the night away. Tonight sucked for my guy but I’m still holding out hope for NH and the future from there.

  74. MWS Says:

    Tex,

    Hannity can say whatever he wants.

    Huckabee just kicked butt tonight!!!

  75. Adam Says:

    McCain now within 180 of Fred, with 76 percent in…

  76. JA Pruce Says:

    Look out for Fred. He is fired up and his impressive showing this evening means that he is very much in this thing. The age of Frederalisim is on the horizon. “Saddle Me Up!” -Fred Thompson 2007

  77. MWS Says:

    Paul S,

    “Huckabee 1
    Limbaugh 0″

    LOL!!!!

    Amen!

  78. Brian Says:

    I’m a huge Abe fan

  79. Abe Says:

    Texas Conservative,

    It’s called always knowing what you really are…..

    An enthusiastic hack…..

  80. Ben Says:

    John Edwards has no soul.

  81. ATL Says:

    Less then 200 votes separate McCain and Thompson.

  82. Nate Says:

    Quote from ronpaulforums.com is funny

    “Ya know what pisses me off more than anything? What really pisses me off is that the polls were right. The polls were fucking right.

    Internet be damned.”

  83. Adam Says:

    Horrible night for Hillary Clinton…

  84. jack Says:

    Congrats to Huck. He worked his ass off. In credit to Romney he too worked his behind off. But it is very clear tonight that Romney is not able to unite the coalition of economic, social, and foreign policy conservatives he talks so often about. Do the honorable thing Mitt and back a man who can unite that coalition. Drop out Mitt and endorse mccain.

  85. MJ Says:

    Isn’t it strange that nearly 1/4 of precincts still haven’t reported on the GOP side? I wonder where those are located?

  86. Brian Says:

    Impressive showing for Fred? He got beat nearly 3 to 1…..

  87. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    You have to wonder, if Romney does lose the nomination, would he be able to come back in 2016 and try again?

  88. jim Says:

    ACT,

    It’s not that I trust McCain, but just look at what happened this year. There’s not enough votes to pass amnesty or reform or anything immigration related, no matter who the President is. Unless the Congress changes dramatically(unlikely) that won’t change

  89. Patrick Says:

    Fox just had McCain move into 3rd over Thompson on their ticker.

  90. ThatLibertarianGuy Says:

    Clinton’s only 12 delegates behind Edwards.

    She could pull a last-minute upset for 2nd. Less than .5% behind.

    (Meanwhile, Edwards railing against the evil PROFITS.)

  91. LaJ Says:

    Fox News just showed McCain taking over Thompson…

  92. LJ Says:

    SGS,

    Well, I think that that means that it’s more likely that the conservative establishment swallows its irrational hatred of McCainn and rallies around him in order to stop the Huckaboom.

  93. SGSFromLaptop Says:

    Someone here asked about why Clinton won more delegates than Edwards, even when Edwards finishes ahead of Clinton. The democratic side has what they called “superdelegates”. It is the persons whose votes account as much as the caucus delegates. We do not have that on our side, I think.

  94. MWS Says:

    So with Romney’s much lauded GOTV effort, how come he underpolled his RCP average, and Huck out perform?

    RCP:

    Huck 29.7
    Romney 26.7

    Could it be that Huck has the invisible army that doesn’t show up in the polls?

  95. Abe Says:

    Brian # 78,

    YOu can join my “Abe-the-political-hack” FAN CLUB…..

    You can be the sixth member…..

    after my wife and four kids…..(But they HAD to join)

  96. ThatLibertarianGuy Says:

    Quote from ronpaulforums.com is funny

    “Ya know what pisses me off more than anything? What really pisses me off is that the polls were right. The polls were fucking right.

    Internet be damned.�

    LOL. QUOTE OF THE YEAR SO FAR.

  97. Gary Matthew Miller Says:

    Matthew should not be disparaged for switching horses. Every sane Republican should begin to think strategically at this dark hour.

  98. Patrick Says:

    85,

    I think they’re probably the large urban ones.

  99. Aron Goldman Says:

    78% Reporting

    Huckabee 34%
    Romney 25%
    McCain 14%
    Thompson 13%
    Paul 10%
    Giuliani 4%

    McCain is just 36 votes ahead of Fred.

  100. DaveG Says:

    Has Romney made his concession speech yet?

  101. jim Says:

    If I was McCain, I’d tell the NR and the Limbaugh’s and all the rest of the establishment to kiss you what. It’ll be a hoot watching them all come grovel before him.

  102. jrcutler Says:

    Summary: Those who care about religion a great deal: Huck: 56 percent Romney 11 percent
    I am very disappointed in Iowa for failing to look past their bias - a very high evangelical turnout - I have no idea why :) . I am a very disappointed Rombot - thank goodness for NH - I really will be disappointed if this race narrows down to Huck and Romney and Huck wins - that would simply point out the blindness of the Republican party. I hope that Republicans wake up and show more intelligence than they did tonight.

  103. ATL Says:

    Ok, Mitt lost but Im really hoping Fred comes in third!

  104. Patrick Says:

    DaveG:

    More or less. He was on FOX a little while ago talking about how happy he was with 2nd and how he was looking to NH now.

  105. econ grad stud Says:

    Tonight reminds me of the Beattle’s refrain:
    “Can’t buy me love”

  106. Paul8148 Says:

    Word is most places left are bigger cities, Jefferson Country has not report nothing let which should be good for McCain.

  107. Brian Says:

    Abe- I’m in! Is there a free t-shirt for joining? Coffee mug? Logo eraser?

  108. JayPe Says:

    ACT, Romney is finished if he fails to win the nomination in 2008. For him to successfully come back years later he needs to win office somewhere. Can you imagine him winning MA Senate seat from John Kerry? Or perhaps trying to retake the Governor’s mansion in 2010?

    I can’t see it happening. Now is his hour. Either now or never.

    Its very rare to have more than one bite at the cherry. McCain is an exception, but then he was a Senator throughout. Edwards shows that once you’re out of office its hard to go again.

  109. Paul S Says:

    The conservative establishment better take a hard look in the mirror tonight and get behind Huckabee or they are going to find themselves on the outside looking in.

  110. ATL Says:

    Romney will be addressing his supporters in about 15 minutes as per CSPAN 2.

  111. SGSFromLaptop Says:

    Anyone has any picture in their mind of what it is like at Clinton Headquarter right now, that they may want to share?

  112. jim Says:

    I see a new ad:

    Money spent overall:

    Money spent in IA:

    Amount I spent personally:

    Days spent in IA:

    Getting rolled by Mike Huckabee: Priceless

  113. Abe Says:

    I must say this…………..
    ———————————-

    DANG, DANG, DANG, DANG, DANG, DAng, dang, dang, …dang……..dang………Oh well…..

    What’s next………….

  114. LaJ Says:

    Jefferson Co. will be good for McCain b/c that was Brownback territory.

  115. Adam Says:

    “If I was McCain, I’d tell the NR and the Limbaugh’s and all the rest of the establishment to kiss you what. It’ll be a hoot watching them all come grovel before him”

    yes it will. Especially Limbaugh. That fat self important ass clown sabotaged McCain in 2000. It will be a hoot to watch him have to kiss his ass if he wins now, especially after what the Bush team did to him eight years ago.

  116. JayPe Says:

    McCain takes 3rd place!
    And Hillary drops below 30%. Terrible night for her. Iowa has spoken.

  117. Brett Passmore Says:

    Abe your a good sport.

  118. MWS Says:

    Thompson, McCain, Paul and Guiliani were all very close to their RCP averages. Yet Huck scord 5 points higher, and Romney 1-2 points lower. How do you figure? Late deciders? Late switchers? Invisible army?

  119. Brian Says:

    Romney has forgotten that most Americans get bored with 9 innings of baseball- the thought of 50 innings makes everyone sick- someone get Mittens a new illustration please..

  120. Abe Says:

    Brian, Brian, Brian…..

    NO COFFEE MUGS……

    Hot Chocolate mugs…………

  121. Paul S Says:

    Romney needs to just retire and enjoy whats left of his fortune.

  122. Paul8148 Says:

    Also Dubquoe where McCain running second has about 46% Still out.

  123. SGSFromLaptop Says:

    Paul HUCKABEE IS NOT A CONSERVATIVE - PERIOD! Sorry, we will never get behind him. We will get behind Rudy, McCain or even Ron before we do with him. Why cannot you get it in your heads that not one conservative pundit has come out for him?

  124. Abe Says:

    Brett,

    THANKS, CONGRATS to YOU and YOUR GUY!!!!!!!!!!!

  125. MWS Says:

    Abe,

    “What’s next………….”

    I think the Orange Bowl is still on…..

  126. Erik Says:

    Adam I wouldn’t count on Limbaugh to grovel to McCain. Not happening.

  127. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    #108, and that is what worries me.

    Looking ahead, I don’t see a candidate who we could run in the future who is the kind of executive genius that romney is.

  128. ATL Says:

    SGS - Hillary is on cspan as we speak.

  129. Brian Says:

    Hillary now spinning her third place finish….

  130. Dskinner Says:

    McCain is in 3rd. What an awful night for conservatives.

  131. JA Pruce Says:

    I think that the lesson this evening is never underestimate the omnipotence of Chuck Norris.

  132. Erik Says:

    #130 agreed!

  133. Texas Conservative Says:

    Look at Bill winking at the blonde bimbo in the front row…

  134. JayPe Says:

    38% for Obama, 30% Edwards, 29% Clinton.

    Obama’s support just keeps climbing. Is he favorite with InTrade for the nomination yet?

  135. Paul S Says:

    SGSFwhaterver,

    When are you going to get it through your head that this is a new day. The social conservatives have risen up and they are going to re-make the GOP for many cycles to come. Huckabee is going to rebuild the party. As he says, we are going to turn it “rightside up.” Its our turn. You can get back in line and wait for your turn again, or you can go chase one losing candidate after another and then go join the Green party. Its up to you.

  136. Abe Says:

    MWS,

    I’ve got better stuff planned, once the kids are in bed………….

  137. shiggz Says:

    Jim you idiot, have you looked at all at the condition for house and senate races republicans are very vulnerable! Dems have almost know seats up for relection, the next election will give the democrats a larger majority the question is how much.

    amnesty will happen 09 unless a republican president stops it,

  138. Patrick Says:

    130,

    Not quite. Obviously, conservatives are speaking and they will say that they want JOHN MCCAIN!

  139. ThatLibertarianGuy Says:

    omg! McCain in 3rd!

  140. SGSFromLaptop Says:

    ATL, Bill on screen with Hillary?

  141. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    so we are just supposed to sit back and watch McCain legalize 20 million people with no education and no skill?

  142. Paul S Says:

    OK, I’m tired. I’ve had enough gloating until South Carolina. See you later. G-night.

    :)

  143. Abe Says:

    What are the #s now……

  144. DaveG Says:

    Hillary is making her concession speech on MSNBC. She’s joined by Bill and Albright and all of her henchmen. It’s like watching a motley group of supervillains, such as the Legion of Doom or the evil forces of Skeletor!

    (No, I am not drunk. Yet.)

  145. Ben Says:

    An observation on the Dems side, the latest poll in NH has Clinton at +16 but Intrade has Obama at 70. Is it his to lose, and why isn’t Mike Huckabee a similar jump in the Intrade?

  146. steve Says:

    138 - why do you keep touting McCain. He came in 3rd or 4th in Iowa he is tied in NH and beyond that he has nothing in the polls not to mention no money.

  147. PnGrata Says:

    Interesting map of candidate distribution:

    http://www.iowagop.net/

  148. Michael Reichard Says:

    Ben, Mike was at 11 earlier.

  149. Abe Says:

    But He-Man (Romney) can still use the Powers of GreySkull…..

  150. jim Says:

    shiggz,

    if that happens and it’s really that bad, it won’t matter who the President is, the veto will be overridden.

  151. bethtopaz Says:

    #143 - Abe - Huckabee is ahead. Whassup?!

  152. E Dogg Says:

    Huckabee 34%
    +
    McCain 14%
    =========
    48%

    Are we done demagoguing illegal immigration now?

  153. ThatLibertarianGuy Says:

    Bill is within three feet of Hillary.

    This is what’s known as an “intimate moment” for those two.

  154. Brian Says:

    34-25-13-13

  155. econ grad stud Says:

    DaveG, Albright reminds me of Skeletor too.

  156. ATL Says:

    140 / 151 - He did not look comfortable there.

  157. Dskinner Says:

    I really hope McCain bombs in the debates this weekend.

    Romney is going to come out swinging on immigration and tax cuts. That is definitely get McCain upset and hopefully is will set off his temper. These two debates will probably decide who wins the nomination. If McCain can sound like a credible conservative then he will win the nomination, if Romney can sound like the better leader then he will have a chance in NH and MI.

    What an awful thought that I may have to choose between McCain and Huckabee.

  158. Abe Says:

    Beth,

    I was wrong……what can you say…………

  159. MWS Says:

    Abe,

    “I’ve got better stuff planned, once the kids are in bed………….”

    ;-D

    You’ve been such a good sport, I personally exempt you from all of my taunting and gloating tonight.

  160. hawthr Says:

    I would like to say congrats to Gov. Huckabee. I’ve been waiting for this day since last January.

  161. ThatLibertarianGuy Says:

    What an awful thought that I may have to choose between McCain and Huckabee.

    You don’t have to.

    A third option awaits you at his bastion in Florida.

  162. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    when is the debate?

  163. Abe Says:

    I’m surprised how little gloating there has been actually…….

  164. Ben Says:

    147, well in NH Huckabee is now at 4, so i guess that’s not a good sign.

  165. SGSFromLaptop Says:

    Paul, you just insulted your fellowman! I too am a social conservative. I have fought in defense of Huckabee for many months on this site, when he was virtually unknown. Then soon after his surge, we were able to have a better look at his record, and unfortunately, he is for using the NATIONAL GOVERNMENT to solve our problems, rather than to delegate more power to state and the people where it belongs. That has me going out of the door in a flash. NOTHING GOOD WILL EVER COME OUT OF THE NATIONAL GOVERNMENT - PERIOD. We will see more people in proverty; we will see more people without healthcares; we will see more broken families; we will see less educational choices. Sorry, Huckabee wants a bigger government, and that is why he is the wrong guy for this job.

  166. Aron Goldman Says:

    My predictions from earlier tonight are in parentheses.

    Democrats - 97% Reporting

    Barack Obama 38% (40%)
    John Edwards 30% (29%)
    Hillary Clinton 29% (31%)

    Republicans - 78% Reporting

    Mike Huckabee 34% (32%)
    Mitt Romney 25% (29%)
    John McCain 14% (13%)
    Fred Thompson 13% (11%)
    Ron Paul 10% (8%)
    Rudy Giuliani 4% (6%)
    Duncan Hunter 1%

  167. Michael Reichard Says:

    Dodd dropped out.

  168. Patrick Says:

    Apparently Dodd has dropped out on the Dem side….

  169. Texas Conservative Says:

    Chris Dodd……. OUT!!!!

  170. Brian Says:

    I live in South Florida, and I can tell you there is not as much enthusiasm for Rudy here as his supporters would wish for…

  171. MetroRepublican Says:

    My predictions were:

    Huck 32
    Mitt 25
    Fred 14
    JMac 12
    Paul 10
    Rudy 5
    Hunt 1
    Keye 1

  172. jim Says:

    maybe Mitt can go back to NE with him

  173. JayPe Says:

    TLG (#161) that is assuming the race lasts that long. If it does, and Rudy wins, full credit to him. But I can’t see it happening.

    We’ve seen Mitt written off after one loss. We’ve seen most bloggers talk of a McCain vs Huckabee race. That is how important momentum is.

    Ironically, Rudy supporters should be backing Mitt for NH. Because if McCain wins he could well lock up the nomination with a big win in Michigan, before rolling into SC.

  174. Abe Says:

    MWS,

    I’m a big-boy……I can take it….

    BRING IT ON……MAN…..3 pm outside….BTW ?where?…..

  175. Michael Reichard Says:

    When will Hunter go?

  176. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    I think there has to be some involvement from the federal government, otherwise we will get states like MASS, CA, and NY keeping abortion and gay marriage legal.

  177. ThatLibertarianGuy Says:

    Dodd doesn’t want to embarrass himself anymore.

    And I don’t want to embarrass myself by showing what my Democratic predictions were.

  178. Abe Says:

    MWS,

    That last one was stupid…….

  179. jim Says:

    McCain has this won now, I’m calling. When Fred and Rudy drop out, and they will, they’ll endorse McCain and that’ll put him over the top.

    So long Mitt. Or should I say Willard.

  180. MetroRepublican Says:

    Intrade Update:

    JMac 28
    Rudy 27
    HUck 17
    Mitt 13

    New Hampshire:

    JMac 65
    Mitt 20

  181. Texas Conservative Says:

    Wow Metro, Great job… those were extremely close!

  182. Dskinner Says:

    Limbaugh is going to be going crazy tomorrow. I really doubt that he will endorse anyone, but who knows how he will react considering that it is shaping up as a Huckabee vs. McCain race.

  183. SGSFromLaptop Says:

    5 more counties yet to report on Republican sides.

  184. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    we’ll lets hope that this nation can survive the legalization of 20 million people who don’t have skill or education - because that is what we get with McCain.

  185. Texas Conservative Says:

    I am going on record as saying JMac will be the nominee.

    God, I HATE listening to Huckabee speak. I feel like I’m at church…

  186. ThatLibertarianGuy Says:

    TLG (#161) that is assuming the race lasts that long. If it does, and Rudy wins, full credit to him. But I can’t see it happening. We’ve seen Mitt written off after one loss. We’ve seen most bloggers talk of a McCain vs Huckabee race. That is how important momentum is. Ironically, Rudy supporters should be backing Mitt for NH. Because if McCain wins he could well lock up the nomination with a big win in Michigan, before rolling into SC.

    Mitt has not been written off after one loss because he lost the state.

    It’s because he staked his entire campaign on in winning Iowa and New Hampshire. He dumped so, so, so many ads and resources, and so much money (including much of his own) into that state to try to buy the win –

    And he got beaten by an upstart candidate!

    Rudy’s running a national campaign. McCain and Huckabee are NOT acceptable to the base and the conservative media, which will rally around Rudy for a big win in Florida and then a blowout on Super Tuesday as the consensus candidate.

  187. Erik Says:

    #153 TLG ROFL!

    If Romney doesn’t pull it out then Thompson is my #2 and after that I could see myself holding my nose for Rudy. After that I stay home for McCain or Huck.

  188. Brian Says:

    Huck with a strong speech thus far….

  189. Adam Says:

    Dskinner,

    He’ll have to go with McCain. And he’ll be miserable and whiny about it. It’s great!

  190. John Galt Says:

    I was pretty close too metro,

    Huckabutt 35
    Romney 29

    and i am a mitt supporter. congrats to huck. but if he wins, I will not vote or donate to the gop in 2008. i will become libertarian.

  191. mnm Says:

    Abe,

    Come over to the dark side.

  192. steve Says:

    The story of the night has to be the 60% evangelical turnout. You simply cant have a one group turnout like that and expect the results to be reflective of the party as a whole.

  193. ThatLibertarianGuy Says:

    we’ll lets hope that this nation can survive the legalization of 20 million people who don’t have skill or education - because that is what we get with McCain.

    Wait…your problem with illegals is that they’re uneducated, not that they broke the law?

    You are downright un-American.

  194. Michael Lawrence Says:

    Oh, Act-blog (#176), you must be a Huck supporter. Conservatism is not “no role for government, except where I disagree with the majority of the people in a few states”.

  195. Abe Says:

    mnm,

    I thought “ROMNEY-WAS-THE-DARK-SIDE”

    Hoo, Hah, ha, haaaaaaahhhh

  196. Erik Says:

    #189 Adam it will never happen!

  197. Texas Conservative Says:

    People call Mitt disingenuous, but to me Huckabee seems so scripted and animatronic… he make John Edwards seem genuine…

  198. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    TLG, I fear the impact of legalizing 20 million people with no education or skill in an economy increasingly reliant on both.

  199. Michael Reichard Says:

    Rombots, watch Huck’s victory speech, it will cheer you up!

  200. LJ Says:

    TLG,

    How is Rudy more acceptable to the conservative establishment than McCain?

  201. JayPe Says:

    TLG (#186) Rudy’s running a national campaign, yes. But momentum is rather more important. Just ask John Kerry. No one (except Fox) is talking about Rudy. The buzz is about Huck & JMac.

  202. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    #194 - I support Romney, but I don’t believe we can truly prevent abortion or Gay marraige except at the federal level.

  203. Erik Says:

    #199 Why do we need to watch it? We already know that God won it for him.

  204. MetroRepublican Says:

    Fred drops out. Mitt drops out a couple weeks later.

    As a result, Rudy’s support grows by double digits.

    Huck/McCain race forces conservative opinion-makers to rally around Rudy.

    That’s why Rudy’s tied with McCain on Intrade.

  205. Carson Says:

    Huckabee is giving speech of a lifetime!

  206. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    Thompson back in third - some small bit of good news.

  207. Brett Passmore Says:

    McCain is back to 4th

  208. Michael Lawrence Says:

    Oh well, maybe we can all agree to support Ron Paul…

  209. mnm Says:

    Join us Abe and together we can end this destructive conflict and bring order to the galaxy . . .

  210. MetroRepublican Says:

    JayPe, because Rudy’s strategy did not involve these states. They will talk about Rudy as his strategy becomes more relevant. And if Hillary is the same boat, the FL/CA/etc strategy will get even more attention.

  211. Aron Goldman Says:

    With 85% reporting, Thompson has moved back into 3rd; 313 votes ahead of McCain.

  212. ThatLibertarianGuy Says:

    TLG, How is Rudy more acceptable to the conservative establishment than McCain?

    McCain has betrayed the party and sold it out to the MSM time and time again.

  213. Abe Says:

    Are you my father……………….

    NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!

  214. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    Odd, Huck’s speech seems a little off tonight. A fine time for him to choose to be mediocre. But, he just quoted my intellectual hero “G.K. Chesterton”, so kudos to Huck.

  215. MetroRepublican Says:

    If you like this Huck speech, you belong in the Democratic Party.

  216. Dskinner Says:

    Adam,

    I agree, but I don’t think it is over yet. If I had to rank the candidates prospects going forward I would say this:

    McCain 54%
    Romney 15%
    Huckabee 15%
    Giuliani 15%
    Thompson 1%

    By the way, I think McCain will lose to Obama in a historic landslide if they both are the nominees. The only hope McCain would have is that there is some serious terrorist incident that scares voters.

  217. Texas Conservative Says:

    I might be coming on a bit strong here, but…..

    I HATE MIKE HUCKABEE!!!!!

    Prairie fire?!?!

    Aghhhghghgh he has no substance!!!! It’s all cheesy one-liners, quotes of others, or religious platitudes. Only John McCain can save us from this snake. Go JMac!!

  218. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    Rudy is no better than McCain or Huckabee

    Huck is weak on taxes
    McCain is weak on immigration
    Giuliani is weak on life and family issues.

  219. Jody Says:

    Metro:

    do you really hate Christians that much?

  220. Brett Passmore Says:

    #215 (act)- Eliminating the IRS is not weak on taxes

  221. Abe Says:

    What are the numbers now……..

  222. JayPe Says:

    Hmmm, headline in Politico “Iowa leaves GOP in total disarray”.
    The article says “a victory for a populist social conservative deeply mistrusted by many people in the Republican establishment, also virtually guarantee that the nomination contest will not simply be a battle over personalities and credentials. Instead, the race will now be a deep and probably intensely negative fight for the direction of the party in the post-Bush era.”
    Doesn’t quite compare to the media’s Obama story does it?

  223. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    “#215 (act)- Eliminating the IRS is not weak on taxes”

    The tax burden in Iowa went up 47% - and Huckabee has not renounced that. Am I supposed to trust him?

  224. ThatLibertarianGuy Says:

    Huck is weak on taxes
    McCain is weak on immigration
    Giuliani is weak on life and family issues.

    Except that “life and family issues” aren’t relevant to the presidency, while illegal immigration and taxes are HUGE issues for the president.

    So I assume you’ll be supporting Rudy over those two.

  225. SGSFromLaptop Says:

    The latest I have here is that we still have 1/4 of precincts to go. What’s the latest?

  226. Abe Says:

    Texas Conservative,

    You HATE Him……

    Do you really know him…………

  227. TarheelRepublican Says:

    You know I was thinking it’ll come down to Huck and McCain but the more I think about it Metro could be right. Huck takes Iowa, McCain takes NH and it all gets muddled after that. By the time Feb5th comes around nobody has been hitting the Mayor b/c he’s been low on the radar and his name recognition and image could win the day.

    I know if it came down to Giuliani/Huck/McCain I’d go with the Mayor.

  228. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    “I’d go with the Mayor.”

    …and I’d go fishing.

  229. Patrick Says:

    Where are you guys getting your numbers right now?

  230. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    Why couldn’t Huck just have been a conservative? We’d be in excellent shape right now if he was mildly less socially conservative, and considerably more conservative everywhere else.

  231. Texas Conservative Says:

    Abe,

    Huck- 34
    Rom- 25
    Thomp 13
    Jmac 13

  232. www.act-blog.co.nr Says:

    “if he was mildly less socially conservative”

    what exactly is that supposed to mean?

  233. Brian Says:

    Sean Hannity now actually praising Huckabee. I feel like I woke up in an alternate universe.

  234. Abe Says:

    When I think of Romney….

    I hear my mother sing……

    “To know, know, know him……Is to love, love, love him…….

  235. MetroRepublican Says:

    Jody, no, I hate populism. It’s fundamentally anti-American.

    5 years ago I was broke from a failed business. I started a new one. Today I live in Bel Air. THAT’s AMERICA.

  236. Texas Conservative Says:

    Ok, I hate the way he speaks and I hate his politics.

  237. shiggz Says:

    To my fellow prev Romney supporters, yes theres still a chance, but its time to make other plans.

    My biggest concern is immigration? At this point Fred is probably a distraction. Too bad he was my second choice oh well i guess i have nothing in common with iowans, i guess thats why i grew up in illinois.

    McCain has promised he would be better about it, whatever the hell that means. Huckabee put out a policy that contradicted everything hes said at the debates I’ve seen everyone. For me i now have to decide who i trust not flip flop on this.

    Huck supporters its your time to shine and convince us.

    McCain supporters your cause is also on thin ice with Obama win, The indepenendants in NH are going to do everything they can to keep him in the race. And right they should to spare us a dog killing Clinton. Rudy supporters you better hope all the news is focused on a democratic battle and not on your skeleton showing in 5 of 5 states.

  238. Erik Says:

    Metro what is it that you do?

  239. Aron Goldman Says:

    Abe,

    With 85% reporting:

    Huckabee 34% (35,257)
    Romney 25% (25,995)
    Thompson 14% (13,786)
    McCain 13% (13,473)
    Paul 10% (9,992)
    Giuliani 4% (3,571)

  240. Abe Says:

    OOOOOoooooooooo,

    I can’t believe I just typed that….

    Don’t tell anyone……pleeeeeeeeeeease.

  241. Permabound Says:

    Chris Dodd on Democrat side just dropped out

  242. MetroRepublican Says:

    Erik, analyze real estate data.

  243. Psycheout Says:

    Huckabee by nine points over Romney?

    Huckabust indeed.

  244. LaJ Says:

    All eyes on McCain to take NH. He is still tied with Romney so lets see if he can move it past the goal line.

  245. Abe Says:

    Texas and Aron,

    Thanks………….

  246. Erik Says:

    Metro, please explain. Just curious.

  247. Matthew E. Miller Says:

    So we’re looking at like 110-120k turnout on the Republican side?

  248. SGSFromLaptop Says:

    Jody, Huckabee wants to make our national government a religious organization. This is very, very, very bad. Think of it as a church where you do not pay tithies, but that their ushers would come into your home, and grab every single penny of yours. It does not matter which church it may be. But it won’t be your beloved faith, since the government are running by greedy men (perhaps not your Huckabee, but definitely with the like of Pelois, Kennedy and Kerry!). Huckabee will only make it easier for them to take over your life.

  249. Michael Lawrence Says:

    How can you “betray the party?”

    One can betray his principles, or his friends. McCain never did that.

    Did he betra