FYI…. Republican registered voters in NH favored McCain by 8+ points over GWB in 2000. Mitt Romney doesn’t have the hardcore conservative support Bush had in 2000, and remember you have Giuliani, Huckabee, Paul and Thompson in the mix to further split the vote. If Mitt Romney loses New Hampshire; his support in South Carolina and Nevada will be gone. Michigan will be his only hope… he’ll probably have to drop out after Florida.
Kris, your right, if Mitt loses NH, MI is all he’s got. If he goes on to lose that, he is done. This is why, people like Texas Conservative need to relax, and not run to McCain at the first sign of trouble. It is not looking good for Mitt, but he is not dead yet.
I think the main reason why Huckabee won is that he’s an evangelical Christian. I mean he has other good qualities but the #1 reason is that he’s evangelical and anybody who says otherwise is full of it. And when you have 60% of voters evangelical tonight, I’m surprised he didn’t win by more to be honest.
7% is no blow out. especially when 60% of the voters go to the same church as Huck. MItt is still strong in NH and all the early states. This thing is not even close to over. If he loses in NH I will concede but he is far from that now.
Matthew you are a fence walker and a fair weather fan you should be ashamed of yourself for jumping to McCain so quickly – that goes for tex conservative as well.
Mike Huckabee- 32%
Mitt Romney -25%
Fred Thompson- 14%
John McCain -13%
Ron Paul -10%
Rudy Giuliani -4%
Duncan Hunter- 1%
Tom Tancredo- 1% ?????????????????????
Kavon, not exactly double digit lead for Huck…
Not to brag, but my numbers were very close to these…
This is seriously disheartening for the Conservative movement.
Iowans have picked a man who is a tax-raiser, and a supporter of aid to illegal immigrants, and the man who stands most to benefit from it is a man who opposed the tax cuts that turned the economy around, and who supports (or at least did this summer), amnesty for illegal immigrants.
Most of the Southern states are going to be 40% + evangelical. What we really need to know is how many non-evangelicals went for Huckabee. No one is reporting on that yet, though.
Kavon, I threw in Pat’s name off the top of my head, because the internet is horribly slow everywhere. I did not want to go and look at the Iowa history. MetroRepublican and the like have claimed often that the candidates who were embraced by the evangelicals often get about 35% of the caucus votes. It looks like that way. Am I mistaken?
I was hoping that it would come down “the best man wins” on super tuesday. Now I think it will come down to 2 good men and 1 average guy on super tuesday.
I hope I didn’t annoy too many people TOO MUCH…..
THANKS Everybody for putting up with my enthusiasm…..
YOU WIN…..I LOSE….
Congratulations, to the Huckster and to Brett……
Aw, poor Abe.
You made this site more entertaining over the past month.
Bull. If McCain gets the nomination it will be the pinnacle of the career for a man who will save this country from the direction extremists want to take it.
Thanks. And to all of the Romnewy supporters that stayed here and kept up with the discussion on what must have been a tough night, you all have character. For real.
I think you will see a more concerted effort by Rudy and McCain to quell the Huckabee momentum. Romney is far from dead, but he is hurt badly with this loss. NH will be crucial for Romney to do well in. He will likely get a small headline from WY in the next couple of days. And MI is going to be a big state for him as well. I thought it was notable though, that on the ticker for Foxnews, it kept scrolling, “Iowa’s ability to pick the winner in November . . not so hot” Then it went on to point out, that the winner in Iowa has rarely gone on to win the nomination. Any thoughts there?
“Matthew you are a fence walker and a fair weather fan you should be ashamed of yourself for jumping to McCain so quickly – that goes for tex conservative as well.”
I’m not a “fair weather” fan. I’m simply rabidly opposed to Huckabee. I will be voting for Barack Obama in November if Huckabee is the nominee. I ultimately decided to back Romney (a month ago) in large part because he looked like the person best positioned to stop Huckabee. That no longer seems to be the case. If this race didn’t involve Huckabee; if he wasn’t such a threat to win the nomination, my decision would be significantly easier. But, he is a threat, and that complicates things considerably.
MSNBC just said that the Democratic turnout is estimated at 212,000! The previous high was 145,000. That’s stunning. No wonder Obama blew everyone away.
I’m also hearing that Huckabee won twice as many evangelicals as Bush did in 2000. Who would have thought that Huck would win by 9 points?! 9!
By the way, Fred could be the real loser, he may not even be in the race in a couple of days.
I’d rather be Mitt. Alright, good night for real this time.
Adam,
Thanks for the compliment. I look forward to next Tuesday night and doing this all over again – but I’ll probably be at the Romney HQ that evening so I won’t get to chat the night away. Tonight sucked for my guy but I’m still holding out hope for NH and the future from there.
Look out for Fred. He is fired up and his impressive showing this evening means that he is very much in this thing. The age of Frederalisim is on the horizon. “Saddle Me Up!” -Fred Thompson 2007
Congrats to Huck. He worked his ass off. In credit to Romney he too worked his behind off. But it is very clear tonight that Romney is not able to unite the coalition of economic, social, and foreign policy conservatives he talks so often about. Do the honorable thing Mitt and back a man who can unite that coalition. Drop out Mitt and endorse mccain.
It’s not that I trust McCain, but just look at what happened this year. There’s not enough votes to pass amnesty or reform or anything immigration related, no matter who the President is. Unless the Congress changes dramatically(unlikely) that won’t change
Well, I think that that means that it’s more likely that the conservative establishment swallows its irrational hatred of McCainn and rallies around him in order to stop the Huckaboom.
Someone here asked about why Clinton won more delegates than Edwards, even when Edwards finishes ahead of Clinton. The democratic side has what they called “superdelegates”. It is the persons whose votes account as much as the caucus delegates. We do not have that on our side, I think.
If I was McCain, I’d tell the NR and the Limbaugh’s and all the rest of the establishment to kiss you what. It’ll be a hoot watching them all come grovel before him.
Summary: Those who care about religion a great deal: Huck: 56 percent Romney 11 percent
I am very disappointed in Iowa for failing to look past their bias – a very high evangelical turnout – I have no idea why . I am a very disappointed Rombot – thank goodness for NH – I really will be disappointed if this race narrows down to Huck and Romney and Huck wins – that would simply point out the blindness of the Republican party. I hope that Republicans wake up and show more intelligence than they did tonight.
ACT, Romney is finished if he fails to win the nomination in 2008. For him to successfully come back years later he needs to win office somewhere. Can you imagine him winning MA Senate seat from John Kerry? Or perhaps trying to retake the Governor’s mansion in 2010?
I can’t see it happening. Now is his hour. Either now or never.
Its very rare to have more than one bite at the cherry. McCain is an exception, but then he was a Senator throughout. Edwards shows that once you’re out of office its hard to go again.
The conservative establishment better take a hard look in the mirror tonight and get behind Huckabee or they are going to find themselves on the outside looking in.
“If I was McCain, I’d tell the NR and the Limbaugh’s and all the rest of the establishment to kiss you what. It’ll be a hoot watching them all come grovel before him”
yes it will. Especially Limbaugh. That fat self important ass clown sabotaged McCain in 2000. It will be a hoot to watch him have to kiss his ass if he wins now, especially after what the Bush team did to him eight years ago.
Thompson, McCain, Paul and Guiliani were all very close to their RCP averages. Yet Huck scord 5 points higher, and Romney 1-2 points lower. How do you figure? Late deciders? Late switchers? Invisible army?
Romney has forgotten that most Americans get bored with 9 innings of baseball- the thought of 50 innings makes everyone sick- someone get Mittens a new illustration please..
Paul HUCKABEE IS NOT A CONSERVATIVE – PERIOD! Sorry, we will never get behind him. We will get behind Rudy, McCain or even Ron before we do with him. Why cannot you get it in your heads that not one conservative pundit has come out for him?
When are you going to get it through your head that this is a new day. The social conservatives have risen up and they are going to re-make the GOP for many cycles to come. Huckabee is going to rebuild the party. As he says, we are going to turn it “rightside up.” Its our turn. You can get back in line and wait for your turn again, or you can go chase one losing candidate after another and then go join the Green party. Its up to you.
Jim you idiot, have you looked at all at the condition for house and senate races republicans are very vulnerable! Dems have almost know seats up for relection, the next election will give the democrats a larger majority the question is how much.
amnesty will happen 09 unless a republican president stops it,
Hillary is making her concession speech on MSNBC. She’s joined by Bill and Albright and all of her henchmen. It’s like watching a motley group of supervillains, such as the Legion of Doom or the evil forces of Skeletor!
An observation on the Dems side, the latest poll in NH has Clinton at +16 but Intrade has Obama at 70. Is it his to lose, and why isn’t Mike Huckabee a similar jump in the Intrade?
138 – why do you keep touting McCain. He came in 3rd or 4th in Iowa he is tied in NH and beyond that he has nothing in the polls not to mention no money.
I really hope McCain bombs in the debates this weekend.
Romney is going to come out swinging on immigration and tax cuts. That is definitely get McCain upset and hopefully is will set off his temper. These two debates will probably decide who wins the nomination. If McCain can sound like a credible conservative then he will win the nomination, if Romney can sound like the better leader then he will have a chance in NH and MI.
What an awful thought that I may have to choose between McCain and Huckabee.
Paul, you just insulted your fellowman! I too am a social conservative. I have fought in defense of Huckabee for many months on this site, when he was virtually unknown. Then soon after his surge, we were able to have a better look at his record, and unfortunately, he is for using the NATIONAL GOVERNMENT to solve our problems, rather than to delegate more power to state and the people where it belongs. That has me going out of the door in a flash. NOTHING GOOD WILL EVER COME OUT OF THE NATIONAL GOVERNMENT – PERIOD. We will see more people in proverty; we will see more people without healthcares; we will see more broken families; we will see less educational choices. Sorry, Huckabee wants a bigger government, and that is why he is the wrong guy for this job.
TLG (#161) that is assuming the race lasts that long. If it does, and Rudy wins, full credit to him. But I can’t see it happening.
We’ve seen Mitt written off after one loss. We’ve seen most bloggers talk of a McCain vs Huckabee race. That is how important momentum is.
Ironically, Rudy supporters should be backing Mitt for NH. Because if McCain wins he could well lock up the nomination with a big win in Michigan, before rolling into SC.
I think there has to be some involvement from the federal government, otherwise we will get states like MASS, CA, and NY keeping abortion and gay marriage legal.
Limbaugh is going to be going crazy tomorrow. I really doubt that he will endorse anyone, but who knows how he will react considering that it is shaping up as a Huckabee vs. McCain race.
we’ll lets hope that this nation can survive the legalization of 20 million people who don’t have skill or education – because that is what we get with McCain.
TLG (#161) that is assuming the race lasts that long. If it does, and Rudy wins, full credit to him. But I can’t see it happening. We’ve seen Mitt written off after one loss. We’ve seen most bloggers talk of a McCain vs Huckabee race. That is how important momentum is. Ironically, Rudy supporters should be backing Mitt for NH. Because if McCain wins he could well lock up the nomination with a big win in Michigan, before rolling into SC.
Mitt has not been written off after one loss because he lost the state.
It’s because he staked his entire campaign on in winning Iowa and New Hampshire. He dumped so, so, so many ads and resources, and so much money (including much of his own) into that state to try to buy the win –
And he got beaten by an upstart candidate!
Rudy’s running a national campaign. McCain and Huckabee are NOT acceptable to the base and the conservative media, which will rally around Rudy for a big win in Florida and then a blowout on Super Tuesday as the consensus candidate.
If Romney doesn’t pull it out then Thompson is my #2 and after that I could see myself holding my nose for Rudy. After that I stay home for McCain or Huck.
The story of the night has to be the 60% evangelical turnout. You simply cant have a one group turnout like that and expect the results to be reflective of the party as a whole.
we’ll lets hope that this nation can survive the legalization of 20 million people who don’t have skill or education – because that is what we get with McCain.
Wait…your problem with illegals is that they’re uneducated, not that they broke the law?
Oh, Act-blog (#176), you must be a Huck supporter. Conservatism is not “no role for government, except where I disagree with the majority of the people in a few states”.
TLG (#186) Rudy’s running a national campaign, yes. But momentum is rather more important. Just ask John Kerry. No one (except Fox) is talking about Rudy. The buzz is about Huck & JMac.
JayPe, because Rudy’s strategy did not involve these states. They will talk about Rudy as his strategy becomes more relevant. And if Hillary is the same boat, the FL/CA/etc strategy will get even more attention.
Odd, Huck’s speech seems a little off tonight. A fine time for him to choose to be mediocre. But, he just quoted my intellectual hero “G.K. Chesterton”, so kudos to Huck.
By the way, I think McCain will lose to Obama in a historic landslide if they both are the nominees. The only hope McCain would have is that there is some serious terrorist incident that scares voters.
Aghhhghghgh he has no substance!!!! It’s all cheesy one-liners, quotes of others, or religious platitudes. Only John McCain can save us from this snake. Go JMac!!
Hmmm, headline in Politico “Iowa leaves GOP in total disarray”.
The article says “a victory for a populist social conservative deeply mistrusted by many people in the Republican establishment, also virtually guarantee that the nomination contest will not simply be a battle over personalities and credentials. Instead, the race will now be a deep and probably intensely negative fight for the direction of the party in the post-Bush era.”
Doesn’t quite compare to the media’s Obama story does it?
You know I was thinking it’ll come down to Huck and McCain but the more I think about it Metro could be right. Huck takes Iowa, McCain takes NH and it all gets muddled after that. By the time Feb5th comes around nobody has been hitting the Mayor b/c he’s been low on the radar and his name recognition and image could win the day.
I know if it came down to Giuliani/Huck/McCain I’d go with the Mayor.
Why couldn’t Huck just have been a conservative? We’d be in excellent shape right now if he was mildly less socially conservative, and considerably more conservative everywhere else.
To my fellow prev Romney supporters, yes theres still a chance, but its time to make other plans.
My biggest concern is immigration? At this point Fred is probably a distraction. Too bad he was my second choice oh well i guess i have nothing in common with iowans, i guess thats why i grew up in illinois.
McCain has promised he would be better about it, whatever the hell that means. Huckabee put out a policy that contradicted everything hes said at the debates I’ve seen everyone. For me i now have to decide who i trust not flip flop on this.
Huck supporters its your time to shine and convince us.
McCain supporters your cause is also on thin ice with Obama win, The indepenendants in NH are going to do everything they can to keep him in the race. And right they should to spare us a dog killing Clinton. Rudy supporters you better hope all the news is focused on a democratic battle and not on your skeleton showing in 5 of 5 states.
Jody, Huckabee wants to make our national government a religious organization. This is very, very, very bad. Think of it as a church where you do not pay tithies, but that their ushers would come into your home, and grab every single penny of yours. It does not matter which church it may be. But it won’t be your beloved faith, since the government are running by greedy men (perhaps not your Huckabee, but definitely with the like of Pelois, Kennedy and Kerry!). Huckabee will only make it easier for them to take over your life.
One can betray his principles, or his friends. McCain never did that.
Did he betray the party when he stood alone for YEARS calling for the surge (which all the sudden everyone else on stage at the debates supports now that it’s clearly succeeding)?
Did he betray the party when he stood with President Bush in 2004 despite the MSM calls for him to endorse Kerry, and despite the fact that Bush stole the 2000 nomination from him with allegations of “miscegination” in South Carolina?
Did he betray the party when he stood in the wilderness calling for Republicans to take back their soles and stop pork-barrel spending?
Just because McCain doesn’t agree with everything dope-addict Rush has to say, doesn’t mean he betrayed the party. It means he sticks to his guns whether you agree with him or not. Somehow that’s an “admirable” quality in President Bush, but an absolute foible for McCain.
God forbid a man stick to his principles. He’s by no means perfect, but anyone who says that McCain only takes high profile stands in the media when it bucks the party is either a liar, or doesn’t know enough to give an informed opinion.
You know I was thinking it’ll come down to Huck and McCain but the more I think about it Metro could be right. Huck takes Iowa, McCain takes NH and it all gets muddled after that. By the time Feb5th comes around nobody has been hitting the Mayor b/c he’s been low on the radar and his name recognition and image could win the day. I know if it came down to Giuliani/Huck/McCain I’d go with the Mayor.
Giuliani wants to pick up Romney and Thompson folks when McCain and Huckabee kill each other, are killed by the conservative media, and are scrutinized like hell.
I’m not so sure about NH – Romney will be flying up tonight I assume, and he is going to blitz that state betwen now and then, and he can deffinately hit McCain on the taxes issues – which will work very well there.
“Giuliani wants to pick up Romney and Thompson folks when McCain and Huckabee kill each other, are killed by the conservative media, and are scrutinized like hell.
249 — Michael Lawrence, I wasn’t giving my personal analysis of McCain. I was telling you why the conservative opinion-makers hate him. He has no serious party loyalty. Some people like that. The base doesn’t.
Why the f8#k are you calling Rush a “dope addict”?
I must confess I feel very sorry for what Bush did to McCain in 2000. And then McCain backed him in a most unpopular war. That takes guts. Most people would bear a grudge against Bush for life.
Still, McCain vs Obama could be successfully phrased as a choice between the old/past, and then new/future – ie. change. I think Obama would win that one.
chris dodd got 1 vote!! one vote! can you believe that?
i also hate huckabee. he is a pro choice democrat. listen to his speech. just wait, the conservatives are going to absolutely go nuts to do whatever they can to stop him.
i agreee. they are also not happy with mccain, so that leaves giuliani in a good spot if mccain wins new hampshire. however i also think that it leaves a winfdow open for mitt still, albeit narroow, because giuliani still has problems with ‘all around’ or ‘reagan’ conservatives because socially he is a liberal.
this race is no more clear now than it was yesterday. however mitt’s chances have dropped.
Even with only 85% reporting, we’re over 100k for the GOP. Still awfully low comparatively, but it also looks like it might well be a record for the GOP caucus as well.
Michael, Huckabee wants to use the power of Federal Government to uphold the Christianity principles. If the national government can ban you from smoking, from having abortion, from same-sex marriage, and so on, then what is there to stop it from banning you on many more things? The national government is necessarily evil. We should keep all of the power to govern very near to ourselves, preferrably to ourselves personally. But, we do need to delegate some of our power to the local, and then county and finally the state. The Federal Government should be in the business of protecting the states from external dangers, and to ensure the citizens are protected across the state boundaries. It cannot, nor should it diciate the moral values among its people. We have different organizations for it, namely, the family and churches. True, the Federal Government should make it easier for families and churches to do their duties, and that is to reduce taxes, deregulate many industries and to protect them.
The game has changed this year with the 20 plus Super Duper Tuesday primaries next month. This is still wide open – however I think Romney is the most damaged at this point in the process. The intrade numbers reveal that I think as well. Guiliani still has a realistic shot despite what some are saying. It’s probably down to McCain/Rudy/Huck for the stretch and I would give the edge to McCain and Rudy at this juncture. This will not play out like previous nominating processes due to Feb 5th.
I thought that comment was unlike you. Forgive the tenacity of my response. As you so aptly put it, I am bothered by those who think that a person’s loyalty should be to his party, rather than to his principles. Rush falls into that group a bit too often for me, so I’m not much of a fan of this thought processes sometimes – though I must admit that I enjoy his show from time to time when I’m able to catch it. I know Rush’s primary concept is adherence to conservatism, but Rush’s definition of conservatism doesn’t DEFINE conservatism. It’s just his opinion. It bothers me when people quote Rush like he’s Moses coming down of the mountain. “Rush said that X is the conservative position, and that makes politician Y no longer acceptable under any circumstances.” Pardon my French, but that is pure dog doo-doo.
Kevin (279) I think Mitt has the best chance. JMac has no momentum from what looks like a tie for 3rd (just edging 4th), and although Mitt is going backwards big time, we know how important momentum is.
If he wins the early ones, he’ll be hard to stop once SC comes around. If he wins SC the race is over. So I’d say:
1) Mitt in NH
2) Huck in SC
3) Rudy in FL.
MWS that’s ok. It’ll be even more fun to watch Huck get beat with a stick by conservatives once it seems him grabbing the nomination could be a reality.
The spin I am hearing is that even though Huckabee won, a lot of the media are saying that he has a huge hurdle in front of him appealing to the non-evangelical segment of the upcoming states. The fact that there was such a high turnout of evangelicals, a lot of them are saying that he has a tougher time appealing to people who do not share his religious views.
Metro,
Mitt won’t drop. Not until the very end. Sorry to bust your bubble.
Yeah, Barack Obama is a terrifically compelling candidate. Gosh, I really hope the wheels don’t completely fall off the Clinton machine. Because I don’t think we can beat this guy.
Gotta love this comment:
“He’s currently at 2% in the caucus results, but Gov. Bill Richardson’s campaign just sent an e-mail to reporters declaring that he “makes Final Four.”
278 SGS – that is absurd – Mike did not do that in AR, and it is not his mission to do it as President. You are grasping for any negative thing that makes sense to you right now…
Kevin, the first state McCain will lose? NV or SC or FL.
Jared, what’s the very end? Mitt said he had a IA+NH springboard strategy. Plus his homestate of MI. If he loses all 3, on what basis can he continue? Even if he won NV after losing those, what can he do with that?
#287, E Dogg, RIGHT ON. I can’t wait for the first year of a McCain administration, when he starts holding press conferences every day to veto bills with charts of all the BS spending, and the bully pulpit to himself to explain why those projects are horsehockey.
That fella is gonna cut us some spending. Maybe, then, we can afford some new tax cuts.
How, if at all possible, does Obama not just run away with this thing? He is already the favorite in NH and after an 8% win in Iowa this lead will only grow. Maybe he gets stopped in SC but that seems about it.
Sorry about the double-thread post – it was meant for here
TLG, 260, I thought that comment was unlike you. Forgive the tenacity of my response. As you so aptly put it, I am bothered by those who think that a person’s loyalty should be to his party, rather than to his principles. Rush falls into that group a bit too often for me, so I’m not much of a fan of this thought processes sometimes – though I must admit that I enjoy his show from time to time when I’m able to catch it. I know Rush’s primary concept is adherence to conservatism, but Rush’s definition of conservatism doesn’t DEFINE conservatism. It’s just his opinion. It bothers me when people quote Rush like he’s Moses coming down of the mountain. “Rush said that X is the conservative position, and that makes politician Y no longer acceptable under any circumstances.†Pardon my French, but that is pure dog doo-doo.
Rush is a conservative before he is a Republican. He sees McCain as not being sufficiently conservative and for selling out conservative principles to curry favor with the mainstream media. McCain has been against the base on tax cuts (by invoking class warfare — it’s not just about spending), campaign finance reform, immigration, waterboarding, and environmentalism, to name just five issues. People love Rush, though — can’t deny that. And he could have a huge impact. Imagine the headline: LIMBAUGH ENDORSES GIULIANI.
Obama is still running up against the Clinton machine, and she went into tonight with about a 2-1 lead nationally. That will drop, but it is significant. If Obama wins NH, he is probably a lock to win SC, as black voters make up a very large % of Democrats in the deep South. I think Obama will start to poll very well with blacks. One commentator tonight noted that once he proves he can get white votes (like tonight in Iowa) he will do very well in the black community.
Like I said, the Hillary crew looked old, tired, and like a part of the past tonight during her concession speech. Obama, who is speaking now, has the feel of the future. He may fizzle out before Super Tuesday, but right now, he feels like a winner.
The GOP race is one between McCain, Huck, and Rudy.
Obama looks strong for the Dems. You’ve gotta think he’ll take NH after this.
Matthias (302) Obama will do fine in SC. The 50% or so blacks will swing behind Obama now that white Iowa has backed him. They’ve seen he’s electable, so any doubts they had (that pushed them to Mrs Black President) are now gone.
IF it goes to a brokered convention, I think the GOP’s chances in 2008 are virtually nil.
Why?
Because, our nominee won’t be known until early september, and won’t be able to raise money or campaign as the nominee until that time. Also, the story Americans are going to see is a united DNC and a divided GOP – or at least, they are going to see it inbetween all of the ads on T.V. for the Democratic nominee.
I suppose Clinton also has the support of the majority of committed superdelegates. But still the fact that he is the odds-on favorite in the next two primaries seems like an avalanche waiting to happen.
I don’t know. I just don’t know. Huckabee and Obama are the two most personally compelling candidates either party has offered since Ronald Reagan. But, Obama doesn’t have a large fraction of his party’s base opposing him. Does anyone doubt that if Huck was an orthodox conservative, he’d walk away with this thing? And right now, Obama is giving an astonishingly wonderful speech. I’m in shivers. We’re doomed if he’s the nominee. Doomed.
Like I said, the Hillary crew looked old, tired, and like a part of the past tonight during her concession speech. Obama, who is speaking now, has the feel of the future. He may fizzle out before Super Tuesday, but right now, he feels like a winner.
I agree completely.
Listen to this Obama speech!
You people think Mitt could’ve beaten this man? NEVER.
We’ll be damn lucky if Rudy or McCain can.
Hopefully events focus America on national security.
Very true, and that doesn’t give enough time for the wounds to heal. If there is a brokered convention that almost guarantees that the majority of Republicans did NOT vote for the nominee. To lose in a brokered convention would be devastating, and not easily forgiven by a candidate’s hardcore support.
here is something to think about, it has been a general agreement among the conservatives that Huckabee is the one to fear for this nomination. Why won’t Huckabee’s victory in Iowa cause the conservatives to get behind the one who has the capability to win the election? For some of us, we think it’s Rudy, with others, McCain, and still some of us, Mitt or Fred.
Brett, Huckabee did it 1033 times, when he pardoned those from prison who claimed to be saved through Christ. Huckabee enlargened many programs, going from 6 billions to 16 billions. And Huckabee claims we did not show terrorists Christ-like love. Need I to say more?
I can’t defend CFR. Won’t bother. Believe me, it gives me the willies to. But then, so do big chunks of the Patriot Act. I’m assuming (without knowing) that Limbaugh thinks that the Patriot Act is a great idea, just like waterboarding. Hmmm…let’s consider what is “conservative” about waterboarding and the Patriot Act. Unchecked authority for government to abuse an individual (even if not a citizen) – not conservative. If the individual is not sacrosanct from the unchecked power of the state, then there is no right in the individual. Waterboarding is UNconservative – it exalts the state over the individual, and sacrifices one individual for the good of many – also contrary to our founding principles.
Patriot Act, again, exalting the state over personal privacy and liberty.
You could debate till you’re blue in the face whether McCain’s opposition to tax cuts was “unconservative” or whether Rush’s support for them was “unconservative”. To call this debate in favor of Rush, one would have to believe that all conservatives must be supply-siders. Too bad Laffer himself doesn’t believe that tax rates are currently high enough that we can “Laff” our way out of tax cuts unaccompanied by spending. The conservative route for taxes and spending, at least in the classical sense of conservatism, is to ensure that government remains as small as possible AND as solvent as possible. McCain wanted tax cuts and spending cuts. Rush and Bush were for tax cuts without spending cuts…I call the battle of “conservatism” here in favor of McCain, since his policy of spending cuts would have achieved two goals of conservatism that Bush’s tax cuts did not: reducing size of government, and making government solvent for future generations.
I can on like this all day. Rush is a blow-hard. He’s entertaining, but he’s still a blow hard, and I think that on balance he’s at least as bad for the party as he is good for it.
The biggest problem I have with McCain is immigration. imo What we do with immigration in the next 10 years is going to define our country. I really wish he would drop his “not really amnesty in name but substance” principles.
I would think think that tonight would send the message to GOP that they have to choose someone who satisfies or placates evangelicals.
I cant see a candidate that shafts the evangelicals pulling off a nomination let alone a general win. Maybe one thats acceptable to them like fred.
If Evangelicals turn out in double the numbers in other states which is very likely if its seen as a nationwide religious revival, none of the remaining gop candidates can topple him, especially not if their support is divided. I really cant foresee Huckabee able to beat Obama not even with a huge imagination stretch. Obama would pull way to much from the center and Huck would lose almost all of the center.
I can’t defend CFR. Won’t bother. Believe me, it gives me the willies to. But then, so do big chunks of the Patriot Act. I’m assuming (without knowing) that Limbaugh thinks that the Patriot Act is a great idea, just like waterboarding. Hmmm…let’s consider what is “conservative†about waterboarding and the Patriot Act. Unchecked authority for government to abuse an individual (even if not a citizen) – not conservative. If the individual is not sacrosanct from the unchecked power of the state, then there is no right in the individual. Waterboarding is UNconservative – it exalts the state over the individual, and sacrifices one individual for the good of many – also contrary to our founding principles.
I support waterboarding, as do most hawks. Again — if you want to argue that it’s unconservative, do that. But most Republicans support the practice, and McCain not only opposes it, but moralizes about it.
You could debate till you’re blue in the face whether McCain’s opposition to tax cuts was “unconservative†or whether Rush’s support for them was “unconservativeâ€.
McCain’s was, because he invoked class warfare.
To call this debate in favor of Rush, one would have to believe that all conservatives must be supply-siders.
Same thing with waterboarding.
McCain wanted tax cuts and spending cuts. Rush and Bush were for tax cuts without spending cuts…I call the battle of “conservatism†here in favor of McCain, since his policy of spending cuts would have achieved two goals of conservatism that Bush’s tax cuts did not: reducing size of government, and making government solvent for future generations.
It is the CLASS WARFARE that is bothersome, not the vote.
I’m a Romney supporter and I’m fine. If Romney can’t pull it out there’s still Thompson, Giuliani, and maybe McCain that I can still enthusiastically support.
Couldn’t be better as a Mormon I always wanted Mitt to lose and lose early. (America is in cultural self destruct between liberals and evangelicals and is fighting a billion muslims, what idiot would want to get in the middle of that) As an American i really thought he could fix some of our complex problems no one else can.
Theres a part of me thats pleased as punch to see you rudy, mccain, and huck guys will now all have to fight each other where before they were all scratching each others back ends to take down mitt. You’ve created a monster to get rid of mitt, good luck with your new huckenstein, though im still willing to give any of them a chance if they’ll at least freeze the border.
TLG, you’re right about the class warfare thing. Certainly, it was not a good call on his part. Nevertheless, his overall position of spending cuts, deficit reduction, and balanced tax cuts is the appropriate conservative course.
Defining whether waterboarding and supply-siderism are conservative based on whether they are currently popular with the party is part of my point about how Rush is sometimes bad for the party. Conservatism has changed a lot since Goldwater, and usually for the worst.
I think we’re in agreement, however, that it’s all in the eye of the beholder. And you’re right about many of the knocks on McCain. Some of them are quite valid. I do believe his promise about enforcing the border before undertaking any further reform. And, as we all know, shutting the border is the beginning of any sensible solution. Really, I don’t know whether it’s better to try to expel 20 million illegals, or simply to penalize them for what they did and letting them stay. My hope is that they’ll find a workable solution that will cut off the job supply for illegals, which would solve the problem in the most natural of ways.
McCain’s not perfect. If I thought he could win a general election, I’d be supporting Thompson. But, we need to win for it to matter.
Total “respek” for the Huckaboppers, BTW. Congratulations.
I don’t know if I could vote for Huck in the general, and I know you guys seriously dislike my guy Rudy, but I do appreciate your work and think your candidate is very appealing as a very human candidate. So congrats to MWS, Brett, UA, WiseGuy, etc.
Michael Lawrence, I agree that McCain will never try to pull an amnesty stunt again, because he knows that he can’t survive that, politically. The base simply won’t allow him to get away with it.
If you think Rush is bad for the party, then you should indeed be supporting McCain. But I was merely trying to show how McCain could get annihilated when people are reminded that there’s more to him than the fact that he was tortured in Vietnam and supported the surge. That’s how Rudy will pull off a victory: he will be the guy that is not John McCain and not Mike Huckabee.
TLG,
“The base simply won’t allow him to get away with it.”
What are you talking about?! All along we heard Iowans were immigration hawks. They just gave half their votes to amnesty champions (I’m demagoguing here) McCain and Huckabee.
Ironically, I also think Rudy has been hurt somewhat by the success of the surge in Iraq and the success of our anti-terrorism efforts in general, not to mention the WH folding its tent on Iran.
As those issues recede and more domestic ones take hold, that hurts Rudy big.
A lot can still happen. For example, a major terrorist attack, capturing or killing a terrorist leader, some big foriegn policy thing, who knows?
But with US deaths in Iraq down to below 1 a day, no terror attacks in the US for going on 6+ years, etc… I think people may be ready to just forget about foreign policy and defense.
Abe, your “Huck-a-bust” meme was a great slogan. Nobody faults you for having a crush on your guy. I hope you continue to participate. Mitt needs somebody to love him!
LOL! j/k. I feel your pain. I started out as a Brownbacker.
Obama is going to be a very difficult general election candidate for anyone to beat. But, my feeling is that McCain is the only guy who can compete against him for independents.
#365 – actually, in this case, Huckabee was being the weasel. The victor is supposed to give his opponent the opportunity to concede before making the victory speech.
New Hampshire should be a good gauge of this. With both Obama and McCain now favored in NH, we should get an idea of who will attract independents to the polls better.
Congrats to the Huckabackers. While I’ve had Mitt as my first choice for a while, Huck is my 2nd choice and you guys won big tonight and earned it. It’s been hard reading the negative comments back and forth between supporters of my top two, but if it winds up Huck vs. Mac by the time I vote on Feb. 5, then give me Huck.
Huckabust…nope, way off on that one.
HUCKAMONSTER…spot on.
As a Romney supporter, i will stay on the ship until i must leave…i could still vote for Guiliani, Thompson ( i think he is done though), and maybe if i absolutely, no way in he!! could find a way out of it, Johny boy. I still think that my man has still got shot, but he is the major underdog, and now he has got to do something amazing, no clue what, maybe he could do a Mormon speech, (nope, already done that).
As for him losing, never thought that that the evangelicals detested him that much, 51% to 10%…wow.
What are you talking about?! All along we heard Iowans were immigration hawks. They just gave half their votes to amnesty champions (I’m demagoguing here) McCain and Huckabee.
People don’t realize that Huckabee is an amnesty champion.
They think he’s tough on immigration. Ever look at the comments on his website’s blog?
The challenge for Huckabee is that as he moves out of Iowa, and away from evangelical voters who are apparently willing to believe that his opponents are simply making up ridiculous things about his record as governor (especially if the charges are made by a member of the Mormon cult), HE IS ACTUALLY GOING TO HAVE TO DEFEND HIMSELF! Some might take his word because he was a Southern Baptist preacher, but his record will not bear rational scrutiny. He will have accomplished what McCain and Rudy had hoped, but he will not be a factor by February 5.
I look forward to working with other Republicans to alter the nominating process in 2012 so that Iowa is not “first in the nation.” I’d prefer to identify four red/purple states (each in a different region) for the initial round. These actual states could change each cycle. Iowas track record, even before tonight, has not been that good. And tonight’s debacle has not been good for the party. RUDY WAS RIGHT! (of course, he didn’t have much choice). It is amazing to me to look at the precipitous decline of the Republican party in just the last four years. I have been an active republican since 1978 and I have never been less optimistic about the party’s future (though the full primary process may yet inspire me). IS THERE ANYONE ON THIS SITE WHO WAS NOT SUPPORTING HUCKABEE BEFORE TONIGHT WHO BELIEVES HE HAS ANY CHANCE OF GETTING TO THE WHITE HOUSE? THE NOMINATION?
January 3rd, 2008 at 9:58 pm
Nobody should ever doubt a Des Moines register poll again – they absolutely NAILED both sides of this election.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:00 pm
FYI…. Republican registered voters in NH favored McCain by 8+ points over GWB in 2000. Mitt Romney doesn’t have the hardcore conservative support Bush had in 2000, and remember you have Giuliani, Huckabee, Paul and Thompson in the mix to further split the vote. If Mitt Romney loses New Hampshire; his support in South Carolina and Nevada will be gone. Michigan will be his only hope… he’ll probably have to drop out after Florida.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:01 pm
Indeed they did.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:01 pm
McCain is less than 300 votes behind Thompson now….
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:01 pm
David, yes they did.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:01 pm
McCain takes NH – i guarantee it.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:02 pm
Huckabee is getting a nice bounce (for him) in fundraising tonight. Not Ron Pauleseque, but quite healthy.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:02 pm
So I don’t buy that McCain will “need” strong support from IND voters in NH.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:02 pm
what happened to the Huckabust?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:02 pm
David, so did I…..
Hoping Matt Miller gives credit to those of us who nearly nailed this. I don’t think anyone here was closer than I was.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:03 pm
Kris, your right, if Mitt loses NH, MI is all he’s got. If he goes on to lose that, he is done. This is why, people like Texas Conservative need to relax, and not run to McCain at the first sign of trouble. It is not looking good for Mitt, but he is not dead yet.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:03 pm
#6 – I guarantee it, too.
Rudy’s on TV!
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:03 pm
Fox News has Rudy. Ridiculous. Hizzoner got crushed.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:03 pm
Brett has gaurenteed a NH win, so we can all go home now
But seriously, he is certainly in the box seat. Mitt will have to campaign very well to knock him over.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:03 pm
I think the main reason why Huckabee won is that he’s an evangelical Christian. I mean he has other good qualities but the #1 reason is that he’s evangelical and anybody who says otherwise is full of it. And when you have 60% of voters evangelical tonight, I’m surprised he didn’t win by more to be honest.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:04 pm
7% is no blow out. especially when 60% of the voters go to the same church as Huck. MItt is still strong in NH and all the early states. This thing is not even close to over. If he loses in NH I will concede but he is far from that now.
Matthew you are a fence walker and a fair weather fan you should be ashamed of yourself for jumping to McCain so quickly – that goes for tex conservative as well.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:04 pm
Tonight was not a good night for Gov Romney. Let’s see what happens over the next 5 days leading up to NH.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:04 pm
Well, I think it’s a given that McCain wins NH now. Winning NH, he’ll also win MI and have a great shot in SC. I don’t know who will win NV though.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:04 pm
David, so did I….. Hoping Matt Miller gives credit to those of us who nearly nailed this. I don’t think anyone here was closer than I was.
You did nail it, Metro. Or rather, InTrade did!
The lesson: No one should doubt InTrade.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:04 pm
I’m seeing 72% reporting:
Mike Huckabee- 32%
Mitt Romney -25%
Fred Thompson- 14%
John McCain -13%
Ron Paul -10%
Rudy Giuliani -4%
Duncan Hunter- 1%
Tom Tancredo- 1% ?????????????????????
Kavon, not exactly double digit lead for Huck…
Not to brag, but my numbers were very close to these…
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:05 pm
This is seriously disheartening for the Conservative movement.
Iowans have picked a man who is a tax-raiser, and a supporter of aid to illegal immigrants, and the man who stands most to benefit from it is a man who opposed the tax cuts that turned the economy around, and who supports (or at least did this summer), amnesty for illegal immigrants.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:05 pm
http://www.ronpaulgraphs.com/rp_vs_huck_today.html
Donations are jumping….
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:05 pm
#6 & 11,
the odds certainly are in McCain’s favor.
But that doesn’t mean Mitt should just throw in the towel.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:05 pm
Fox News has yet to mention that Rudy was more then doubled up by Ron Paul.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:05 pm
The signs at the state line are being changed to say Welcome to HuckOwa.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:05 pm
What is Rudy doing on TV? He’s at 4% !!
Perhaps they should interview Ron Paul, he got 10%. But then, if he can’t get to a debate, he probalby can’t get an interview either.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:06 pm
Metro,
you are a very impressive individual, congrats for nailing it.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:06 pm
THIS WAS SURE DANG FUN WHILE IT LASTED…..
I hope I didn’t annoy too many people TOO MUCH…..
THANKS Everybody for putting up with my enthusiasm…..
YOU WIN…..I LOSE….
Congratulations, to the Huckster and to Brett……
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:06 pm
Most of the Southern states are going to be 40% + evangelical. What we really need to know is how many non-evangelicals went for Huckabee. No one is reporting on that yet, though.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:06 pm
Kavon, I threw in Pat’s name off the top of my head, because the internet is horribly slow everywhere. I did not want to go and look at the Iowa history. MetroRepublican and the like have claimed often that the candidates who were embraced by the evangelicals often get about 35% of the caucus votes. It looks like that way. Am I mistaken?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:07 pm
I was hoping that it would come down “the best man wins” on super tuesday. Now I think it will come down to 2 good men and 1 average guy on super tuesday.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:07 pm
Brett, thanks to the link to the anti-Huck site
BTW, the Rudy ad they mentioned was aired here in Texas earlier…
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:07 pm
If McCain wins the nom, it will certainly validate that the GOP always nominates the early favorite.
It’s a shame.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:07 pm
I hope I didn’t annoy too many people TOO MUCH…..
THANKS Everybody for putting up with my enthusiasm…..
YOU WIN…..I LOSE….
Congratulations, to the Huckster and to Brett……
Aw, poor Abe.
You made this site more entertaining over the past month.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:08 pm
McCain is only 210 votes behind Thompson with 74 % in.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:08 pm
Abe, you too need to hold strong until after Michigan.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:09 pm
If McCain gets the nomination, the whole Conservative movement goes to hell in a handbasket.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:09 pm
Are we still at 72%? Dems has been jumping a point every 5 minutes or so, but we have been stuck that way for a long time now. Any update from TV?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:09 pm
TLG,
My wife is even feeling sorry for me…..(with a smile on my face)
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:09 pm
ACT,
I don’t know why you are so negative on McCain. He has an ACU rating of 83. Your guy has been way more wishy washy over the last decade.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:09 pm
Wellll…hello Abe. Kudos to you for showing up. What are you going to change your screen name to so that you can come back as a Huckabee supporter?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:09 pm
Romney’s Intrade for NH is down to 20.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:10 pm
ACT,
Bull. If McCain gets the nomination it will be the pinnacle of the career for a man who will save this country from the direction extremists want to take it.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:10 pm
Swint (#33) most front runners don’t win like this though.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:10 pm
Haha. there you go Abe. Play the “sympathy” card. At least you have something to look forward to tonight
J/k.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:10 pm
Actually, that is true with McCain, Rudy, or Huck.
OK, now I am starting to get ticked off and am turning into a sore loser, so I am hitting the hay.
Congrats to Huck and McCain…to TLG, Metro, Adam, etc. Enjoy your victory.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:11 pm
Paul S,
No, Sorry, not going to change sides….
I am still a Romney supporter….
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:11 pm
Swint,
Thanks. And to all of the Romnewy supporters that stayed here and kept up with the discussion on what must have been a tough night, you all have character. For real.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:11 pm
#44, that’s true, McCain’s comeback is one for the history books. I am astounded…and it was completely media made. good for them.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:11 pm
Adam,
You think I’m kidding……
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:11 pm
well, i was a bit off…sad day for the GOP.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:11 pm
OMG.
SEAN HANNITY
JUST USED
THE TERM
HUCK-A-BUST
ON TV.
!!!!!
Abe, you have a consolation prize.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:12 pm
metro why are you celebrating i thought you were a rudy guy?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:12 pm
That’s OK, Abe. There’s still time for you.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:12 pm
Looks like JMac will overhaul FDT. Only 180 behind.
And what’s with Clinton, she’s 3rd on votes but 2nd on delegates according to USA Today. Very strange.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:12 pm
Do you people really trust McCain not to support a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:12 pm
TLG,
But why did he use it….(I don’t have cable)
Wasn’t this MY WORST NIGHTMARE….
THE ROM-NA-BUST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:12 pm
I think you will see a more concerted effort by Rudy and McCain to quell the Huckabee momentum. Romney is far from dead, but he is hurt badly with this loss. NH will be crucial for Romney to do well in. He will likely get a small headline from WY in the next couple of days. And MI is going to be a big state for him as well. I thought it was notable though, that on the ticker for Foxnews, it kept scrolling, “Iowa’s ability to pick the winner in November . . not so hot” Then it went on to point out, that the winner in Iowa has rarely gone on to win the nomination. Any thoughts there?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:12 pm
Abe,
You’re a good sport.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:12 pm
steve,
“Matthew you are a fence walker and a fair weather fan you should be ashamed of yourself for jumping to McCain so quickly – that goes for tex conservative as well.”
I’m not a “fair weather” fan. I’m simply rabidly opposed to Huckabee. I will be voting for Barack Obama in November if Huckabee is the nominee. I ultimately decided to back Romney (a month ago) in large part because he looked like the person best positioned to stop Huckabee. That no longer seems to be the case. If this race didn’t involve Huckabee; if he wasn’t such a threat to win the nomination, my decision would be significantly easier. But, he is a threat, and that complicates things considerably.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:13 pm
Shiggz, Metro will celebrate for anyone, as long as it is not Mitt. He hates him even more than he dislikes Huckabee.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:13 pm
I. Am. Speechless.
MSNBC just said that the Democratic turnout is estimated at 212,000! The previous high was 145,000. That’s stunning. No wonder Obama blew everyone away.
I’m also hearing that Huckabee won twice as many evangelicals as Bush did in 2000. Who would have thought that Huck would win by 9 points?! 9!
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:13 pm
Haha Hannity said Huck-a-bust
And whats with the music at the Edwards HQ… I laughed out loud…
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:13 pm
By the way it looks like despite the fell of not breaking 90,000 it looks like we there and closing in on a 100,000 voters on the Republican side.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:14 pm
McCain will likely take 3rd…this just about ices NH for Romney. I think this thing is now a 3 way race between McCain, Rudy, and Huck.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:14 pm
shiggz, because Rudy needed Huck to win in IA.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:14 pm
By the way, Fred could be the real loser, he may not even be in the race in a couple of days.
I’d rather be Mitt. Alright, good night for real this time.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:15 pm
LJ, is that good or bad? With Huckabee winning twice as many evangelicals as Bush did? Won’t it give our party too much of religious tip?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:15 pm
Paul S,
Thanks, but I think you’ll be waiting a long time…….
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:15 pm
Huckabee 1
Limbaugh 0
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:15 pm
For all of you who defend McCain, do you really trust him not to support legalization for the illegals?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:15 pm
Abe is an incredible sport.
Good for you Abe.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:15 pm
Adam,
Thanks for the compliment. I look forward to next Tuesday night and doing this all over again – but I’ll probably be at the Romney HQ that evening so I won’t get to chat the night away. Tonight sucked for my guy but I’m still holding out hope for NH and the future from there.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:15 pm
Tex,
Hannity can say whatever he wants.
Huckabee just kicked butt tonight!!!
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:15 pm
McCain now within 180 of Fred, with 76 percent in…
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Look out for Fred. He is fired up and his impressive showing this evening means that he is very much in this thing. The age of Frederalisim is on the horizon. “Saddle Me Up!” -Fred Thompson 2007
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Paul S,
“Huckabee 1
Limbaugh 0″
LOL!!!!
Amen!
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:16 pm
I’m a huge Abe fan
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:17 pm
Texas Conservative,
It’s called always knowing what you really are…..
An enthusiastic hack…..
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:17 pm
John Edwards has no soul.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:17 pm
Less then 200 votes separate McCain and Thompson.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:17 pm
Quote from ronpaulforums.com is funny
“Ya know what pisses me off more than anything? What really pisses me off is that the polls were right. The polls were fucking right.
Internet be damned.”
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:18 pm
Horrible night for Hillary Clinton…
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:18 pm
Congrats to Huck. He worked his ass off. In credit to Romney he too worked his behind off. But it is very clear tonight that Romney is not able to unite the coalition of economic, social, and foreign policy conservatives he talks so often about. Do the honorable thing Mitt and back a man who can unite that coalition. Drop out Mitt and endorse mccain.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:18 pm
Isn’t it strange that nearly 1/4 of precincts still haven’t reported on the GOP side? I wonder where those are located?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:18 pm
Impressive showing for Fred? He got beat nearly 3 to 1…..
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:18 pm
You have to wonder, if Romney does lose the nomination, would he be able to come back in 2016 and try again?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:18 pm
ACT,
It’s not that I trust McCain, but just look at what happened this year. There’s not enough votes to pass amnesty or reform or anything immigration related, no matter who the President is. Unless the Congress changes dramatically(unlikely) that won’t change
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:18 pm
Fox just had McCain move into 3rd over Thompson on their ticker.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:18 pm
Clinton’s only 12 delegates behind Edwards.
She could pull a last-minute upset for 2nd. Less than .5% behind.
(Meanwhile, Edwards railing against the evil PROFITS.)
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:18 pm
Fox News just showed McCain taking over Thompson…
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:19 pm
SGS,
Well, I think that that means that it’s more likely that the conservative establishment swallows its irrational hatred of McCainn and rallies around him in order to stop the Huckaboom.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:19 pm
Someone here asked about why Clinton won more delegates than Edwards, even when Edwards finishes ahead of Clinton. The democratic side has what they called “superdelegates”. It is the persons whose votes account as much as the caucus delegates. We do not have that on our side, I think.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:19 pm
So with Romney’s much lauded GOTV effort, how come he underpolled his RCP average, and Huck out perform?
RCP:
Huck 29.7
Romney 26.7
Could it be that Huck has the invisible army that doesn’t show up in the polls?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:19 pm
Brian # 78,
YOu can join my “Abe-the-political-hack” FAN CLUB…..
You can be the sixth member…..
after my wife and four kids…..(But they HAD to join)
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:19 pm
Quote from ronpaulforums.com is funny
“Ya know what pisses me off more than anything? What really pisses me off is that the polls were right. The polls were fucking right.
Internet be damned.â€
LOL. QUOTE OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:19 pm
Matthew should not be disparaged for switching horses. Every sane Republican should begin to think strategically at this dark hour.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:19 pm
85,
I think they’re probably the large urban ones.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:20 pm
78% Reporting
Huckabee 34%
Romney 25%
McCain 14%
Thompson 13%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 4%
McCain is just 36 votes ahead of Fred.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:20 pm
Has Romney made his concession speech yet?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:21 pm
If I was McCain, I’d tell the NR and the Limbaugh’s and all the rest of the establishment to kiss you what. It’ll be a hoot watching them all come grovel before him.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:21 pm
Summary: Those who care about religion a great deal: Huck: 56 percent Romney 11 percent
. I am a very disappointed Rombot – thank goodness for NH – I really will be disappointed if this race narrows down to Huck and Romney and Huck wins – that would simply point out the blindness of the Republican party. I hope that Republicans wake up and show more intelligence than they did tonight.
I am very disappointed in Iowa for failing to look past their bias – a very high evangelical turnout – I have no idea why
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:21 pm
Ok, Mitt lost but Im really hoping Fred comes in third!
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:21 pm
DaveG:
More or less. He was on FOX a little while ago talking about how happy he was with 2nd and how he was looking to NH now.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:21 pm
Tonight reminds me of the Beattle’s refrain:
“Can’t buy me love”
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:21 pm
Word is most places left are bigger cities, Jefferson Country has not report nothing let which should be good for McCain.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:21 pm
Abe- I’m in! Is there a free t-shirt for joining? Coffee mug? Logo eraser?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:21 pm
ACT, Romney is finished if he fails to win the nomination in 2008. For him to successfully come back years later he needs to win office somewhere. Can you imagine him winning MA Senate seat from John Kerry? Or perhaps trying to retake the Governor’s mansion in 2010?
I can’t see it happening. Now is his hour. Either now or never.
Its very rare to have more than one bite at the cherry. McCain is an exception, but then he was a Senator throughout. Edwards shows that once you’re out of office its hard to go again.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:22 pm
The conservative establishment better take a hard look in the mirror tonight and get behind Huckabee or they are going to find themselves on the outside looking in.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:22 pm
Romney will be addressing his supporters in about 15 minutes as per CSPAN 2.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:23 pm
Anyone has any picture in their mind of what it is like at Clinton Headquarter right now, that they may want to share?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:23 pm
I see a new ad:
Money spent overall:
Money spent in IA:
Amount I spent personally:
Days spent in IA:
Getting rolled by Mike Huckabee: Priceless
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:23 pm
I must say this…………..
———————————-
DANG, DANG, DANG, DANG, DANG, DAng, dang, dang, …dang……..dang………Oh well…..
What’s next………….
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:23 pm
Jefferson Co. will be good for McCain b/c that was Brownback territory.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:23 pm
“If I was McCain, I’d tell the NR and the Limbaugh’s and all the rest of the establishment to kiss you what. It’ll be a hoot watching them all come grovel before him”
yes it will. Especially Limbaugh. That fat self important ass clown sabotaged McCain in 2000. It will be a hoot to watch him have to kiss his ass if he wins now, especially after what the Bush team did to him eight years ago.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:23 pm
McCain takes 3rd place!
And Hillary drops below 30%. Terrible night for her. Iowa has spoken.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:23 pm
Abe your a good sport.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:23 pm
Thompson, McCain, Paul and Guiliani were all very close to their RCP averages. Yet Huck scord 5 points higher, and Romney 1-2 points lower. How do you figure? Late deciders? Late switchers? Invisible army?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:23 pm
Romney has forgotten that most Americans get bored with 9 innings of baseball- the thought of 50 innings makes everyone sick- someone get Mittens a new illustration please..
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:23 pm
Brian, Brian, Brian…..
NO COFFEE MUGS……
Hot Chocolate mugs…………
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:24 pm
Romney needs to just retire and enjoy whats left of his fortune.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:24 pm
Also Dubquoe where McCain running second has about 46% Still out.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:24 pm
Paul HUCKABEE IS NOT A CONSERVATIVE – PERIOD! Sorry, we will never get behind him. We will get behind Rudy, McCain or even Ron before we do with him. Why cannot you get it in your heads that not one conservative pundit has come out for him?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:24 pm
Brett,
THANKS, CONGRATS to YOU and YOUR GUY!!!!!!!!!!!
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:25 pm
Abe,
“What’s next………….”
I think the Orange Bowl is still on…..
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:25 pm
Adam I wouldn’t count on Limbaugh to grovel to McCain. Not happening.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:25 pm
#108, and that is what worries me.
Looking ahead, I don’t see a candidate who we could run in the future who is the kind of executive genius that romney is.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:25 pm
SGS – Hillary is on cspan as we speak.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:25 pm
Hillary now spinning her third place finish….
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:25 pm
McCain is in 3rd. What an awful night for conservatives.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:26 pm
I think that the lesson this evening is never underestimate the omnipotence of Chuck Norris.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:26 pm
#130 agreed!
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:26 pm
Look at Bill winking at the blonde bimbo in the front row…
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:27 pm
38% for Obama, 30% Edwards, 29% Clinton.
Obama’s support just keeps climbing. Is he favorite with InTrade for the nomination yet?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:27 pm
SGSFwhaterver,
When are you going to get it through your head that this is a new day. The social conservatives have risen up and they are going to re-make the GOP for many cycles to come. Huckabee is going to rebuild the party. As he says, we are going to turn it “rightside up.” Its our turn. You can get back in line and wait for your turn again, or you can go chase one losing candidate after another and then go join the Green party. Its up to you.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:27 pm
MWS,
I’ve got better stuff planned, once the kids are in bed………….
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:27 pm
Jim you idiot, have you looked at all at the condition for house and senate races republicans are very vulnerable! Dems have almost know seats up for relection, the next election will give the democrats a larger majority the question is how much.
amnesty will happen 09 unless a republican president stops it,
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:27 pm
130,
Not quite. Obviously, conservatives are speaking and they will say that they want JOHN MCCAIN!
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:27 pm
omg! McCain in 3rd!
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:28 pm
ATL, Bill on screen with Hillary?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:28 pm
so we are just supposed to sit back and watch McCain legalize 20 million people with no education and no skill?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:29 pm
OK, I’m tired. I’ve had enough gloating until South Carolina. See you later. G-night.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:29 pm
What are the #s now……
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:29 pm
Hillary is making her concession speech on MSNBC. She’s joined by Bill and Albright and all of her henchmen. It’s like watching a motley group of supervillains, such as the Legion of Doom or the evil forces of Skeletor!
(No, I am not drunk. Yet.)
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:29 pm
An observation on the Dems side, the latest poll in NH has Clinton at +16 but Intrade has Obama at 70. Is it his to lose, and why isn’t Mike Huckabee a similar jump in the Intrade?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:30 pm
138 – why do you keep touting McCain. He came in 3rd or 4th in Iowa he is tied in NH and beyond that he has nothing in the polls not to mention no money.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:30 pm
Interesting map of candidate distribution:
http://www.iowagop.net/
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:30 pm
Ben, Mike was at 11 earlier.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:30 pm
But He-Man (Romney) can still use the Powers of GreySkull…..
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:31 pm
shiggz,
if that happens and it’s really that bad, it won’t matter who the President is, the veto will be overridden.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:31 pm
#143 – Abe – Huckabee is ahead. Whassup?!
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:31 pm
Huckabee 34%
+
McCain 14%
=========
48%
Are we done demagoguing illegal immigration now?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:31 pm
Bill is within three feet of Hillary.
This is what’s known as an “intimate moment” for those two.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:31 pm
34-25-13-13
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:31 pm
DaveG, Albright reminds me of Skeletor too.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:31 pm
140 / 151 – He did not look comfortable there.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:32 pm
I really hope McCain bombs in the debates this weekend.
Romney is going to come out swinging on immigration and tax cuts. That is definitely get McCain upset and hopefully is will set off his temper. These two debates will probably decide who wins the nomination. If McCain can sound like a credible conservative then he will win the nomination, if Romney can sound like the better leader then he will have a chance in NH and MI.
What an awful thought that I may have to choose between McCain and Huckabee.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:32 pm
Beth,
I was wrong……what can you say…………
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:32 pm
Abe,
“I’ve got better stuff planned, once the kids are in bed………….”
;-D
You’ve been such a good sport, I personally exempt you from all of my taunting and gloating tonight.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:32 pm
I would like to say congrats to Gov. Huckabee. I’ve been waiting for this day since last January.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:33 pm
What an awful thought that I may have to choose between McCain and Huckabee.
You don’t have to.
A third option awaits you at his bastion in Florida.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:33 pm
when is the debate?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:33 pm
I’m surprised how little gloating there has been actually…….
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:33 pm
147, well in NH Huckabee is now at 4, so i guess that’s not a good sign.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:33 pm
Paul, you just insulted your fellowman! I too am a social conservative. I have fought in defense of Huckabee for many months on this site, when he was virtually unknown. Then soon after his surge, we were able to have a better look at his record, and unfortunately, he is for using the NATIONAL GOVERNMENT to solve our problems, rather than to delegate more power to state and the people where it belongs. That has me going out of the door in a flash. NOTHING GOOD WILL EVER COME OUT OF THE NATIONAL GOVERNMENT – PERIOD. We will see more people in proverty; we will see more people without healthcares; we will see more broken families; we will see less educational choices. Sorry, Huckabee wants a bigger government, and that is why he is the wrong guy for this job.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:33 pm
My predictions from earlier tonight are in parentheses.
Democrats – 97% Reporting
Barack Obama 38% (40%)
John Edwards 30% (29%)
Hillary Clinton 29% (31%)
Republicans – 78% Reporting
Mike Huckabee 34% (32%)
Mitt Romney 25% (29%)
John McCain 14% (13%)
Fred Thompson 13% (11%)
Ron Paul 10% (8%)
Rudy Giuliani 4% (6%)
Duncan Hunter 1%
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:34 pm
Dodd dropped out.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:34 pm
Apparently Dodd has dropped out on the Dem side….
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:34 pm
Chris Dodd……. OUT!!!!
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:34 pm
I live in South Florida, and I can tell you there is not as much enthusiasm for Rudy here as his supporters would wish for…
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:35 pm
My predictions were:
Huck 32
Mitt 25
Fred 14
JMac 12
Paul 10
Rudy 5
Hunt 1
Keye 1
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:35 pm
maybe Mitt can go back to NE with him
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:35 pm
TLG (#161) that is assuming the race lasts that long. If it does, and Rudy wins, full credit to him. But I can’t see it happening.
We’ve seen Mitt written off after one loss. We’ve seen most bloggers talk of a McCain vs Huckabee race. That is how important momentum is.
Ironically, Rudy supporters should be backing Mitt for NH. Because if McCain wins he could well lock up the nomination with a big win in Michigan, before rolling into SC.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:35 pm
MWS,
I’m a big-boy……I can take it….
BRING IT ON……MAN…..3 pm outside….BTW ?where?…..
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:35 pm
When will Hunter go?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:36 pm
I think there has to be some involvement from the federal government, otherwise we will get states like MASS, CA, and NY keeping abortion and gay marriage legal.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:36 pm
Dodd doesn’t want to embarrass himself anymore.
And I don’t want to embarrass myself by showing what my Democratic predictions were.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:36 pm
MWS,
That last one was stupid…….
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:36 pm
McCain has this won now, I’m calling. When Fred and Rudy drop out, and they will, they’ll endorse McCain and that’ll put him over the top.
So long Mitt. Or should I say Willard.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:36 pm
Intrade Update:
JMac 28
Rudy 27
HUck 17
Mitt 13
New Hampshire:
JMac 65
Mitt 20
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:37 pm
Wow Metro, Great job… those were extremely close!
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:37 pm
Limbaugh is going to be going crazy tomorrow. I really doubt that he will endorse anyone, but who knows how he will react considering that it is shaping up as a Huckabee vs. McCain race.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:38 pm
5 more counties yet to report on Republican sides.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:38 pm
we’ll lets hope that this nation can survive the legalization of 20 million people who don’t have skill or education – because that is what we get with McCain.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:38 pm
I am going on record as saying JMac will be the nominee.
God, I HATE listening to Huckabee speak. I feel like I’m at church…
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:38 pm
TLG (#161) that is assuming the race lasts that long. If it does, and Rudy wins, full credit to him. But I can’t see it happening. We’ve seen Mitt written off after one loss. We’ve seen most bloggers talk of a McCain vs Huckabee race. That is how important momentum is. Ironically, Rudy supporters should be backing Mitt for NH. Because if McCain wins he could well lock up the nomination with a big win in Michigan, before rolling into SC.
Mitt has not been written off after one loss because he lost the state.
It’s because he staked his entire campaign on in winning Iowa and New Hampshire. He dumped so, so, so many ads and resources, and so much money (including much of his own) into that state to try to buy the win –
And he got beaten by an upstart candidate!
Rudy’s running a national campaign. McCain and Huckabee are NOT acceptable to the base and the conservative media, which will rally around Rudy for a big win in Florida and then a blowout on Super Tuesday as the consensus candidate.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:38 pm
#153 TLG ROFL!
If Romney doesn’t pull it out then Thompson is my #2 and after that I could see myself holding my nose for Rudy. After that I stay home for McCain or Huck.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:38 pm
Huck with a strong speech thus far….
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:38 pm
Dskinner,
He’ll have to go with McCain. And he’ll be miserable and whiny about it. It’s great!
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:39 pm
I was pretty close too metro,
Huckabutt 35
Romney 29
and i am a mitt supporter. congrats to huck. but if he wins, I will not vote or donate to the gop in 2008. i will become libertarian.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:39 pm
Abe,
Come over to the dark side.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:39 pm
The story of the night has to be the 60% evangelical turnout. You simply cant have a one group turnout like that and expect the results to be reflective of the party as a whole.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:40 pm
we’ll lets hope that this nation can survive the legalization of 20 million people who don’t have skill or education – because that is what we get with McCain.
Wait…your problem with illegals is that they’re uneducated, not that they broke the law?
You are downright un-American.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:40 pm
Oh, Act-blog (#176), you must be a Huck supporter. Conservatism is not “no role for government, except where I disagree with the majority of the people in a few states”.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:41 pm
mnm,
I thought “ROMNEY-WAS-THE-DARK-SIDE”
Hoo, Hah, ha, haaaaaaahhhh
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:41 pm
#189 Adam it will never happen!
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:41 pm
People call Mitt disingenuous, but to me Huckabee seems so scripted and animatronic… he make John Edwards seem genuine…
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:42 pm
TLG, I fear the impact of legalizing 20 million people with no education or skill in an economy increasingly reliant on both.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:42 pm
Rombots, watch Huck’s victory speech, it will cheer you up!
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:42 pm
TLG,
How is Rudy more acceptable to the conservative establishment than McCain?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:42 pm
TLG (#186) Rudy’s running a national campaign, yes. But momentum is rather more important. Just ask John Kerry. No one (except Fox) is talking about Rudy. The buzz is about Huck & JMac.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:43 pm
#194 – I support Romney, but I don’t believe we can truly prevent abortion or Gay marraige except at the federal level.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:43 pm
#199 Why do we need to watch it? We already know that God won it for him.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:43 pm
Fred drops out. Mitt drops out a couple weeks later.
As a result, Rudy’s support grows by double digits.
Huck/McCain race forces conservative opinion-makers to rally around Rudy.
That’s why Rudy’s tied with McCain on Intrade.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:43 pm
Huckabee is giving speech of a lifetime!
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:43 pm
Thompson back in third – some small bit of good news.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:43 pm
McCain is back to 4th
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:44 pm
Oh well, maybe we can all agree to support Ron Paul…
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:44 pm
Join us Abe and together we can end this destructive conflict and bring order to the galaxy . . .
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:44 pm
JayPe, because Rudy’s strategy did not involve these states. They will talk about Rudy as his strategy becomes more relevant. And if Hillary is the same boat, the FL/CA/etc strategy will get even more attention.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:44 pm
With 85% reporting, Thompson has moved back into 3rd; 313 votes ahead of McCain.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:44 pm
TLG, How is Rudy more acceptable to the conservative establishment than McCain?
McCain has betrayed the party and sold it out to the MSM time and time again.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:45 pm
Are you my father……………….
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:45 pm
Odd, Huck’s speech seems a little off tonight. A fine time for him to choose to be mediocre. But, he just quoted my intellectual hero “G.K. Chesterton”, so kudos to Huck.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:45 pm
If you like this Huck speech, you belong in the Democratic Party.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:45 pm
Adam,
I agree, but I don’t think it is over yet. If I had to rank the candidates prospects going forward I would say this:
McCain 54%
Romney 15%
Huckabee 15%
Giuliani 15%
Thompson 1%
By the way, I think McCain will lose to Obama in a historic landslide if they both are the nominees. The only hope McCain would have is that there is some serious terrorist incident that scares voters.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:45 pm
I might be coming on a bit strong here, but…..
I HATE MIKE HUCKABEE!!!!!
Prairie fire?!?!
Aghhhghghgh he has no substance!!!! It’s all cheesy one-liners, quotes of others, or religious platitudes. Only John McCain can save us from this snake. Go JMac!!
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:45 pm
Rudy is no better than McCain or Huckabee
Huck is weak on taxes
McCain is weak on immigration
Giuliani is weak on life and family issues.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:45 pm
Metro:
do you really hate Christians that much?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:46 pm
#215 (act)- Eliminating the IRS is not weak on taxes
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:46 pm
What are the numbers now……..
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:47 pm
Hmmm, headline in Politico “Iowa leaves GOP in total disarray”.
The article says “a victory for a populist social conservative deeply mistrusted by many people in the Republican establishment, also virtually guarantee that the nomination contest will not simply be a battle over personalities and credentials. Instead, the race will now be a deep and probably intensely negative fight for the direction of the party in the post-Bush era.”
Doesn’t quite compare to the media’s Obama story does it?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:47 pm
“#215 (act)- Eliminating the IRS is not weak on taxes”
The tax burden in Iowa went up 47% – and Huckabee has not renounced that. Am I supposed to trust him?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:47 pm
Huck is weak on taxes
McCain is weak on immigration
Giuliani is weak on life and family issues.
Except that “life and family issues” aren’t relevant to the presidency, while illegal immigration and taxes are HUGE issues for the president.
So I assume you’ll be supporting Rudy over those two.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:47 pm
The latest I have here is that we still have 1/4 of precincts to go. What’s the latest?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:47 pm
Texas Conservative,
You HATE Him……
Do you really know him…………
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:48 pm
You know I was thinking it’ll come down to Huck and McCain but the more I think about it Metro could be right. Huck takes Iowa, McCain takes NH and it all gets muddled after that. By the time Feb5th comes around nobody has been hitting the Mayor b/c he’s been low on the radar and his name recognition and image could win the day.
I know if it came down to Giuliani/Huck/McCain I’d go with the Mayor.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:48 pm
“I’d go with the Mayor.”
…and I’d go fishing.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:48 pm
Where are you guys getting your numbers right now?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:48 pm
Why couldn’t Huck just have been a conservative? We’d be in excellent shape right now if he was mildly less socially conservative, and considerably more conservative everywhere else.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:48 pm
Abe,
Huck- 34
Rom- 25
Thomp 13
Jmac 13
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:48 pm
“if he was mildly less socially conservative”
what exactly is that supposed to mean?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:48 pm
Sean Hannity now actually praising Huckabee. I feel like I woke up in an alternate universe.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:49 pm
When I think of Romney….
I hear my mother sing……
“To know, know, know him……Is to love, love, love him…….
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:49 pm
Jody, no, I hate populism. It’s fundamentally anti-American.
5 years ago I was broke from a failed business. I started a new one. Today I live in Bel Air. THAT’s AMERICA.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:49 pm
Ok, I hate the way he speaks and I hate his politics.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:50 pm
To my fellow prev Romney supporters, yes theres still a chance, but its time to make other plans.
My biggest concern is immigration? At this point Fred is probably a distraction. Too bad he was my second choice oh well i guess i have nothing in common with iowans, i guess thats why i grew up in illinois.
McCain has promised he would be better about it, whatever the hell that means. Huckabee put out a policy that contradicted everything hes said at the debates I’ve seen everyone. For me i now have to decide who i trust not flip flop on this.
Huck supporters its your time to shine and convince us.
McCain supporters your cause is also on thin ice with Obama win, The indepenendants in NH are going to do everything they can to keep him in the race. And right they should to spare us a dog killing Clinton. Rudy supporters you better hope all the news is focused on a democratic battle and not on your skeleton showing in 5 of 5 states.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:50 pm
Metro what is it that you do?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:50 pm
Abe,
With 85% reporting:
Huckabee 34% (35,257)
Romney 25% (25,995)
Thompson 14% (13,786)
McCain 13% (13,473)
Paul 10% (9,992)
Giuliani 4% (3,571)
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:50 pm
OOOOOoooooooooo,
I can’t believe I just typed that….
Don’t tell anyone……pleeeeeeeeeeease.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:51 pm
Chris Dodd on Democrat side just dropped out
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:51 pm
Erik, analyze real estate data.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:51 pm
Huckabee by nine points over Romney?
Huckabust indeed.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:51 pm
All eyes on McCain to take NH. He is still tied with Romney so lets see if he can move it past the goal line.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:51 pm
Texas and Aron,
Thanks………….
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:52 pm
Metro, please explain. Just curious.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:52 pm
So we’re looking at like 110-120k turnout on the Republican side?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:52 pm
Jody, Huckabee wants to make our national government a religious organization. This is very, very, very bad. Think of it as a church where you do not pay tithies, but that their ushers would come into your home, and grab every single penny of yours. It does not matter which church it may be. But it won’t be your beloved faith, since the government are running by greedy men (perhaps not your Huckabee, but definitely with the like of Pelois, Kennedy and Kerry!). Huckabee will only make it easier for them to take over your life.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:52 pm
How can you “betray the party?”
One can betray his principles, or his friends. McCain never did that.
Did he betray the party when he stood alone for YEARS calling for the surge (which all the sudden everyone else on stage at the debates supports now that it’s clearly succeeding)?
Did he betray the party when he stood with President Bush in 2004 despite the MSM calls for him to endorse Kerry, and despite the fact that Bush stole the 2000 nomination from him with allegations of “miscegination” in South Carolina?
Did he betray the party when he stood in the wilderness calling for Republicans to take back their soles and stop pork-barrel spending?
Just because McCain doesn’t agree with everything dope-addict Rush has to say, doesn’t mean he betrayed the party. It means he sticks to his guns whether you agree with him or not. Somehow that’s an “admirable” quality in President Bush, but an absolute foible for McCain.
God forbid a man stick to his principles. He’s by no means perfect, but anyone who says that McCain only takes high profile stands in the media when it bucks the party is either a liar, or doesn’t know enough to give an informed opinion.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:52 pm
You know I was thinking it’ll come down to Huck and McCain but the more I think about it Metro could be right. Huck takes Iowa, McCain takes NH and it all gets muddled after that. By the time Feb5th comes around nobody has been hitting the Mayor b/c he’s been low on the radar and his name recognition and image could win the day. I know if it came down to Giuliani/Huck/McCain I’d go with the Mayor.
Giuliani wants to pick up Romney and Thompson folks when McCain and Huckabee kill each other, are killed by the conservative media, and are scrutinized like hell.
This could be a BOOM for Rudy on Feb. 5th.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:52 pm
You’re going to regret that in the morning. LOL!
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:53 pm
#248, Wow, that is a complete lie.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:53 pm
Here’s my take:
http://race42008.com/2008/01/03/iowa-lowdown-and-aftermath/
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:53 pm
Psycheout,
You’re right…..
Nobody tell Abe……..
He’ll have a mental break down………
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:53 pm
Avon, thanks for the update, do keep it coming our way!
Go, Fred, Go!!!
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:53 pm
Rudy at 3%
Ouch.
61% of the country said he is in big trouble if he doesn’t win Iowa or NH. In elections, perception becomes reality.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:53 pm
Been trying to find a county-by-county map but so far unsuccessful. You guys seen one?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:54 pm
I’m not so sure about NH – Romney will be flying up tonight I assume, and he is going to blitz that state betwen now and then, and he can deffinately hit McCain on the taxes issues – which will work very well there.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:54 pm
TLG, nice one:
“Giuliani wants to pick up Romney and Thompson folks when McCain and Huckabee kill each other, are killed by the conservative media, and are scrutinized like hell.
This could be a BOOM for Rudy on Feb. 5th.”
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:54 pm
249 — Michael Lawrence, I wasn’t giving my personal analysis of McCain. I was telling you why the conservative opinion-makers hate him. He has no serious party loyalty. Some people like that. The base doesn’t.
Why the f8#k are you calling Rush a “dope addict”?
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:54 pm
Good night and go JMac!!!
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:54 pm
# Abe Says: January 3rd, 2008 at 10:53 pm Psycheout, You’re right….. Nobody tell Abe…….. He’ll have a mental break down………
LOL. That was really subtle, dry humor.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:55 pm
I must confess I feel very sorry for what Bush did to McCain in 2000. And then McCain backed him in a most unpopular war. That takes guts. Most people would bear a grudge against Bush for life.
Still, McCain vs Obama could be successfully phrased as a choice between the old/past, and then new/future – ie. change. I think Obama would win that one.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:55 pm
The 200,000+ democrats and less than 100,000 GOPers is worrisome – to say the least.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:55 pm
Matthias: http://www.iowagop.net/
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:55 pm
Intrade Update – GOP New Hampshire Primary
McCain 66.0
Romney 20.0
Intrade Update – GOP Nomination
McCain 32.5
Giuliani 26.8
Huckabee 17.0
Romney 14.0
Paul 4.0
Thompson 4.0
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:57 pm
thx for the map
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:58 pm
county by county at politico.com and go for detailed results
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:58 pm
Finally,
Mitt has imploded….
Now HE can have HIS COMEBACK……
Everybody else gets one…..
Why not him…….
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:58 pm
chris dodd got 1 vote!! one vote! can you believe that?
i also hate huckabee. he is a pro choice democrat. listen to his speech. just wait, the conservatives are going to absolutely go nuts to do whatever they can to stop him.
i agreee. they are also not happy with mccain, so that leaves giuliani in a good spot if mccain wins new hampshire. however i also think that it leaves a winfdow open for mitt still, albeit narroow, because giuliani still has problems with ‘all around’ or ‘reagan’ conservatives because socially he is a liberal.
this race is no more clear now than it was yesterday. however mitt’s chances have dropped.
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:59 pm
Abe (#269) very funny.
I’m yet to see the much anticipated Dennis Kucinich comeback though…
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:59 pm
“he is a pro choice democrat. ”
I’m going to assume you mean a “pro-life democrat”
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:59 pm
Intrade Update – Dem NH Primary
Obama 60.0
Clinton 35.0
January 3rd, 2008 at 10:59 pm
Disclaimer:
(I never wanted Mitt to implode)
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:00 pm
OUCH……….
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:00 pm
Mike has arrived — to the theme song of “Monty Python and the Flying Circus,” no less. – Politico.
Ummm, why?
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:00 pm
Matthias,
Even with only 85% reporting, we’re over 100k for the GOP. Still awfully low comparatively, but it also looks like it might well be a record for the GOP caucus as well.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:00 pm
Michael, Huckabee wants to use the power of Federal Government to uphold the Christianity principles. If the national government can ban you from smoking, from having abortion, from same-sex marriage, and so on, then what is there to stop it from banning you on many more things? The national government is necessarily evil. We should keep all of the power to govern very near to ourselves, preferrably to ourselves personally. But, we do need to delegate some of our power to the local, and then county and finally the state. The Federal Government should be in the business of protecting the states from external dangers, and to ensure the citizens are protected across the state boundaries. It cannot, nor should it diciate the moral values among its people. We have different organizations for it, namely, the family and churches. True, the Federal Government should make it easier for families and churches to do their duties, and that is to reduce taxes, deregulate many industries and to protect them.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:01 pm
What are the chances that McCain now runs off wins in NH, MI, NV, and SC? If he does that how does Rudy stop his momentum in FL or on Feb. 5?
Who has the best chance to stop McCain in one of those states? Mitt in NH? Huckabee in SC? Rudy in NV?
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:01 pm
John (270) that doesn’t mean 1 vote. (Add them up, its less than 200k). I guess it means he passed the critical 15% in one precinct.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:01 pm
The game has changed this year with the 20 plus Super Duper Tuesday primaries next month. This is still wide open – however I think Romney is the most damaged at this point in the process. The intrade numbers reveal that I think as well. Guiliani still has a realistic shot despite what some are saying. It’s probably down to McCain/Rudy/Huck for the stretch and I would give the edge to McCain and Rudy at this juncture. This will not play out like previous nominating processes due to Feb 5th.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:02 pm
TLG, 260,
I thought that comment was unlike you. Forgive the tenacity of my response. As you so aptly put it, I am bothered by those who think that a person’s loyalty should be to his party, rather than to his principles. Rush falls into that group a bit too often for me, so I’m not much of a fan of this thought processes sometimes – though I must admit that I enjoy his show from time to time when I’m able to catch it. I know Rush’s primary concept is adherence to conservatism, but Rush’s definition of conservatism doesn’t DEFINE conservatism. It’s just his opinion. It bothers me when people quote Rush like he’s Moses coming down of the mountain. “Rush said that X is the conservative position, and that makes politician Y no longer acceptable under any circumstances.” Pardon my French, but that is pure dog doo-doo.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:03 pm
Over the next 5 days we will start to see the wheels fall off of Romney, Inc. And after Tuesday, it will all be over but the crying.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:03 pm
well, obviously romney is the most damaged, but I am not sure how big that damage will be.
Huck is not exactly a good fit in NH, and I don’t see Romney supporters jumping ship to another candidate who placed lower than Mitt.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:04 pm
Ah, that’s why I didn’t hear a Romney concession speech. He gave it during Huck’s victory speech. Real classy, Mitt.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:04 pm
Kevin W,
McCain has a ceiling in the GOP. It’s well below 50%.
Rudy’s ceiling is over 60%.
As I’ve said for weeks, the conventional wisdom is wrong. Rudy didn’t need a multi-way race to win. He needs a one-on-one race to win.
As Fred and Mitt drop, Rudy gets stronger and stronger.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:04 pm
John McCain gets to take this message to NH:
Every viable candidate supports half a trillion dollars in farmer’s subsidies except me.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:05 pm
Kevin (279) I think Mitt has the best chance. JMac has no momentum from what looks like a tie for 3rd (just edging 4th), and although Mitt is going backwards big time, we know how important momentum is.
If he wins the early ones, he’ll be hard to stop once SC comes around. If he wins SC the race is over. So I’d say:
1) Mitt in NH
2) Huck in SC
3) Rudy in FL.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:05 pm
MJ,
Rudy does not have a shot, my friend.
When was the last time Republicans nominated a pro choice candidate?
Not going to happen.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:06 pm
Metro, you say that Giuliani is not a social liberal.
Do you believe he would sign pro-life legislation?
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:06 pm
So Metro, what is the first state you expect McCain to lose?
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:06 pm
MWS that’s ok. It’ll be even more fun to watch Huck get beat with a stick by conservatives once it seems him grabbing the nomination could be a reality.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:07 pm
The spin I am hearing is that even though Huckabee won, a lot of the media are saying that he has a huge hurdle in front of him appealing to the non-evangelical segment of the upcoming states. The fact that there was such a high turnout of evangelicals, a lot of them are saying that he has a tougher time appealing to people who do not share his religious views.
Metro,
Mitt won’t drop. Not until the very end. Sorry to bust your bubble.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:07 pm
………..
HEY BRETT,
If you are out there…….
THANKS SO MUCH for posting my lame “HUCK-A-BUST” yesterday…..
I had my 15 minutes……
Now you get your 15 hours and on, and on……
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:07 pm
Yeah, Barack Obama is a terrifically compelling candidate. Gosh, I really hope the wheels don’t completely fall off the Clinton machine. Because I don’t think we can beat this guy.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:07 pm
Gotta love this comment:
“He’s currently at 2% in the caucus results, but Gov. Bill Richardson’s campaign just sent an e-mail to reporters declaring that he “makes Final Four.”
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:09 pm
278 SGS – that is absurd – Mike did not do that in AR, and it is not his mission to do it as President. You are grasping for any negative thing that makes sense to you right now…
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:09 pm
I agree with Matt Miller. Obama’s way stronger than Hillary.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:09 pm
“So Metro, what is the first state you expect McCain to lose?”
Iowa.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:09 pm
Kevin, the first state McCain will lose? NV or SC or FL.
Jared, what’s the very end? Mitt said he had a IA+NH springboard strategy. Plus his homestate of MI. If he loses all 3, on what basis can he continue? Even if he won NV after losing those, what can he do with that?
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:10 pm
#287, E Dogg, RIGHT ON. I can’t wait for the first year of a McCain administration, when he starts holding press conferences every day to veto bills with charts of all the BS spending, and the bully pulpit to himself to explain why those projects are horsehockey.
That fella is gonna cut us some spending. Maybe, then, we can afford some new tax cuts.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:11 pm
A little Democrat talk for a second -
How, if at all possible, does Obama not just run away with this thing? He is already the favorite in NH and after an 8% win in Iowa this lead will only grow. Maybe he gets stopped in SC but that seems about it.
Sorry about the double-thread post – it was meant for here
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:11 pm
Obama looks and sounds like a president
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:11 pm
*in this speech that is
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:12 pm
#301,
what about immigration?
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:12 pm
TLG, 260, I thought that comment was unlike you. Forgive the tenacity of my response. As you so aptly put it, I am bothered by those who think that a person’s loyalty should be to his party, rather than to his principles. Rush falls into that group a bit too often for me, so I’m not much of a fan of this thought processes sometimes – though I must admit that I enjoy his show from time to time when I’m able to catch it. I know Rush’s primary concept is adherence to conservatism, but Rush’s definition of conservatism doesn’t DEFINE conservatism. It’s just his opinion. It bothers me when people quote Rush like he’s Moses coming down of the mountain. “Rush said that X is the conservative position, and that makes politician Y no longer acceptable under any circumstances.†Pardon my French, but that is pure dog doo-doo.
Rush is a conservative before he is a Republican. He sees McCain as not being sufficiently conservative and for selling out conservative principles to curry favor with the mainstream media. McCain has been against the base on tax cuts (by invoking class warfare — it’s not just about spending), campaign finance reform, immigration, waterboarding, and environmentalism, to name just five issues. People love Rush, though — can’t deny that. And he could have a huge impact. Imagine the headline: LIMBAUGH ENDORSES GIULIANI.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:13 pm
I hold to my early prediction that we will see a brokered convention.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:13 pm
[...] See also: Race 4 2008’s Open Thread. [...]
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:14 pm
I hate democrats and I have to admit Obama is a dream canidate to the public.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:14 pm
Biden also drops out, AP
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:15 pm
Matthias,
Obama is still running up against the Clinton machine, and she went into tonight with about a 2-1 lead nationally. That will drop, but it is significant. If Obama wins NH, he is probably a lock to win SC, as black voters make up a very large % of Democrats in the deep South. I think Obama will start to poll very well with blacks. One commentator tonight noted that once he proves he can get white votes (like tonight in Iowa) he will do very well in the black community.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:15 pm
Like I said, the Hillary crew looked old, tired, and like a part of the past tonight during her concession speech. Obama, who is speaking now, has the feel of the future. He may fizzle out before Super Tuesday, but right now, he feels like a winner.
The GOP race is one between McCain, Huck, and Rudy.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:15 pm
Obama looks strong for the Dems. You’ve gotta think he’ll take NH after this.
Matthias (302) Obama will do fine in SC. The 50% or so blacks will swing behind Obama now that white Iowa has backed him. They’ve seen he’s electable, so any doubts they had (that pushed them to Mrs Black President) are now gone.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:16 pm
IF it goes to a brokered convention, I think the GOP’s chances in 2008 are virtually nil.
Why?
Because, our nominee won’t be known until early september, and won’t be able to raise money or campaign as the nominee until that time. Also, the story Americans are going to see is a united DNC and a divided GOP – or at least, they are going to see it inbetween all of the ads on T.V. for the Democratic nominee.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:16 pm
MWS, snap!
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:16 pm
Listen to this Obama speech!
You people think Mitt could’ve beaten this man? NEVER.
We’ll be damn lucky if Rudy or McCain can.
Hopefully events focus America on national security.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:16 pm
So who was the biggest loser in the first tier tonight?
Hillary or Mitt?
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:17 pm
I suppose Clinton also has the support of the majority of committed superdelegates. But still the fact that he is the odds-on favorite in the next two primaries seems like an avalanche waiting to happen.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:17 pm
Matthias,
I don’t know. I just don’t know. Huckabee and Obama are the two most personally compelling candidates either party has offered since Ronald Reagan. But, Obama doesn’t have a large fraction of his party’s base opposing him. Does anyone doubt that if Huck was an orthodox conservative, he’d walk away with this thing? And right now, Obama is giving an astonishingly wonderful speech. I’m in shivers. We’re doomed if he’s the nominee. Doomed.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:17 pm
Like I said, the Hillary crew looked old, tired, and like a part of the past tonight during her concession speech. Obama, who is speaking now, has the feel of the future. He may fizzle out before Super Tuesday, but right now, he feels like a winner.
I agree completely.
Listen to this Obama speech!
You people think Mitt could’ve beaten this man? NEVER.
We’ll be damn lucky if Rudy or McCain can.
Hopefully events focus America on national security.
I agree completely.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:17 pm
MWS, Mitt was hurt more.
He went from 24 to 14 on Intrade. Hillary went from 65 to 55.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:17 pm
Act,
Very true, and that doesn’t give enough time for the wounds to heal. If there is a brokered convention that almost guarantees that the majority of Republicans did NOT vote for the nominee. To lose in a brokered convention would be devastating, and not easily forgiven by a candidate’s hardcore support.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:18 pm
Metro,
Looked at that way, they both lost 10.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:18 pm
here is something to think about, it has been a general agreement among the conservatives that Huckabee is the one to fear for this nomination. Why won’t Huckabee’s victory in Iowa cause the conservatives to get behind the one who has the capability to win the election? For some of us, we think it’s Rudy, with others, McCain, and still some of us, Mitt or Fred.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:18 pm
So who was the biggest loser in the first tier tonight? Hillary or Mitt?
Mitt, because Hillary has a 20-point national lead.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:19 pm
goodness does Obama have charisma…
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:20 pm
If Huck was a true conservative he would easily walk away with the nomination.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:20 pm
MWS, you have to look at the PROPORTION they lost, and where they ended up.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:20 pm
does anyone here think huck could beat obama?
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:20 pm
GOODNIGHT GUYS,
THIS IS THE VERY LAST TIME I WILL EVER TYPE THESE WORDS…………….
…..THE HUCK-A-BUST…..is a Bust……
I still believe Huck will NOT win the nomination…..
But I will never type…..that…..again….
Good night…..all….
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:20 pm
I’m not even so worried about wounds in the party.
My biggest concern is that Democrats will be running ads from april to september uncontested.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:21 pm
Mitt, because Hillary has a 20-point national lead.
Irrelevant, after tonight. What’s going to be worse, Hillary losing a 20 point lead, or Mitt dropping about 8.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:21 pm
Abe, haha, thanks for the entertainment… ‘night!
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:22 pm
Beating Hillary would be fun and satisfying. Facing Obama is terrifying.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:22 pm
Brett, Huckabee did it 1033 times, when he pardoned those from prison who claimed to be saved through Christ. Huckabee enlargened many programs, going from 6 billions to 16 billions. And Huckabee claims we did not show terrorists Christ-like love. Need I to say more?
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:22 pm
I can’t defend CFR. Won’t bother. Believe me, it gives me the willies to. But then, so do big chunks of the Patriot Act. I’m assuming (without knowing) that Limbaugh thinks that the Patriot Act is a great idea, just like waterboarding. Hmmm…let’s consider what is “conservative” about waterboarding and the Patriot Act. Unchecked authority for government to abuse an individual (even if not a citizen) – not conservative. If the individual is not sacrosanct from the unchecked power of the state, then there is no right in the individual. Waterboarding is UNconservative – it exalts the state over the individual, and sacrifices one individual for the good of many – also contrary to our founding principles.
Patriot Act, again, exalting the state over personal privacy and liberty.
You could debate till you’re blue in the face whether McCain’s opposition to tax cuts was “unconservative” or whether Rush’s support for them was “unconservative”. To call this debate in favor of Rush, one would have to believe that all conservatives must be supply-siders. Too bad Laffer himself doesn’t believe that tax rates are currently high enough that we can “Laff” our way out of tax cuts unaccompanied by spending. The conservative route for taxes and spending, at least in the classical sense of conservatism, is to ensure that government remains as small as possible AND as solvent as possible. McCain wanted tax cuts and spending cuts. Rush and Bush were for tax cuts without spending cuts…I call the battle of “conservatism” here in favor of McCain, since his policy of spending cuts would have achieved two goals of conservatism that Bush’s tax cuts did not: reducing size of government, and making government solvent for future generations.
I can on like this all day. Rush is a blow-hard. He’s entertaining, but he’s still a blow hard, and I think that on balance he’s at least as bad for the party as he is good for it.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:24 pm
OMG!!!! I just got home from work and immediately turned on Fox and logged on here at the same time.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:24 pm
I cannot believe I missed this!
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:24 pm
The biggest problem I have with McCain is immigration. imo What we do with immigration in the next 10 years is going to define our country. I really wish he would drop his “not really amnesty in name but substance” principles.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:25 pm
Irrelevant, after tonight. What’s going to be worse, Hillary losing a 20 point lead, or Mitt dropping about 8.
We were asked whether Romney or Hillary is hurt more.
Romney is done.
Hillary is not.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:25 pm
UA, did you not know when the Iowa Caucus was???
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:26 pm
Yes, but I was at work, with no TV, radio, or internet.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:26 pm
Metro, he said that he just got home from work, not that he didn’t know what day it was.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:26 pm
I would think think that tonight would send the message to GOP that they have to choose someone who satisfies or placates evangelicals.
I cant see a candidate that shafts the evangelicals pulling off a nomination let alone a general win. Maybe one thats acceptable to them like fred.
If Evangelicals turn out in double the numbers in other states which is very likely if its seen as a nationwide religious revival, none of the remaining gop candidates can topple him, especially not if their support is divided. I really cant foresee Huckabee able to beat Obama not even with a huge imagination stretch. Obama would pull way to much from the center and Huck would lose almost all of the center.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:26 pm
how are the Romney supporters holding up?
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:28 pm
random question…but i was gone the past couple weeks and didn’t have the chance to read this blog. what happened to Rhett Hatcher?
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:29 pm
I can’t defend CFR. Won’t bother. Believe me, it gives me the willies to. But then, so do big chunks of the Patriot Act. I’m assuming (without knowing) that Limbaugh thinks that the Patriot Act is a great idea, just like waterboarding. Hmmm…let’s consider what is “conservative†about waterboarding and the Patriot Act. Unchecked authority for government to abuse an individual (even if not a citizen) – not conservative. If the individual is not sacrosanct from the unchecked power of the state, then there is no right in the individual. Waterboarding is UNconservative – it exalts the state over the individual, and sacrifices one individual for the good of many – also contrary to our founding principles.
I support waterboarding, as do most hawks. Again — if you want to argue that it’s unconservative, do that. But most Republicans support the practice, and McCain not only opposes it, but moralizes about it.
You could debate till you’re blue in the face whether McCain’s opposition to tax cuts was “unconservative†or whether Rush’s support for them was “unconservativeâ€.
McCain’s was, because he invoked class warfare.
To call this debate in favor of Rush, one would have to believe that all conservatives must be supply-siders.
Same thing with waterboarding.
McCain wanted tax cuts and spending cuts. Rush and Bush were for tax cuts without spending cuts…I call the battle of “conservatism†here in favor of McCain, since his policy of spending cuts would have achieved two goals of conservatism that Bush’s tax cuts did not: reducing size of government, and making government solvent for future generations.
It is the CLASS WARFARE that is bothersome, not the vote.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:31 pm
random question…but i was gone the past couple weeks and didn’t have the chance to read this blog. what happened to Rhett Hatcher?
Kicked off for irrational bigotry.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:32 pm
McCain is making a run for 3rd place with the remaining 15% of the precincts
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:32 pm
cheers to Abe for being such a good sport
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:33 pm
I’m a Romney supporter and I’m fine. If Romney can’t pull it out there’s still Thompson, Giuliani, and maybe McCain that I can still enthusiastically support.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:33 pm
Do you mind if I ask what kind? Towards Mitt?
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:33 pm
Waterboarding is surely not libertarian. Torturing someone violates their rights, wouldn’t you say?
(and one can talk about “they want to kill us” etc Its irrelevant, surely it comes down to principle)
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:34 pm
UA
Couldn’t be better as a Mormon I always wanted Mitt to lose and lose early. (America is in cultural self destruct between liberals and evangelicals and is fighting a billion muslims, what idiot would want to get in the middle of that) As an American i really thought he could fix some of our complex problems no one else can.
Theres a part of me thats pleased as punch to see you rudy, mccain, and huck guys will now all have to fight each other where before they were all scratching each others back ends to take down mitt. You’ve created a monster to get rid of mitt, good luck with your new huckenstein, though im still willing to give any of them a chance if they’ll at least freeze the border.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:34 pm
All I have to say is:
Romney:2008 :: Reagan:1976
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:37 pm
Joseph, no, that’s Rudy.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:38 pm
TLG, you’re right about the class warfare thing. Certainly, it was not a good call on his part. Nevertheless, his overall position of spending cuts, deficit reduction, and balanced tax cuts is the appropriate conservative course.
Defining whether waterboarding and supply-siderism are conservative based on whether they are currently popular with the party is part of my point about how Rush is sometimes bad for the party. Conservatism has changed a lot since Goldwater, and usually for the worst.
I think we’re in agreement, however, that it’s all in the eye of the beholder. And you’re right about many of the knocks on McCain. Some of them are quite valid. I do believe his promise about enforcing the border before undertaking any further reform. And, as we all know, shutting the border is the beginning of any sensible solution. Really, I don’t know whether it’s better to try to expel 20 million illegals, or simply to penalize them for what they did and letting them stay. My hope is that they’ll find a workable solution that will cut off the job supply for illegals, which would solve the problem in the most natural of ways.
McCain’s not perfect. If I thought he could win a general election, I’d be supporting Thompson. But, we need to win for it to matter.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:38 pm
All I have to say is:
Rudy:2008 :: Reagan:1976
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:39 pm
Total “respek” for the Huckaboppers, BTW. Congratulations.
I don’t know if I could vote for Huck in the general, and I know you guys seriously dislike my guy Rudy, but I do appreciate your work and think your candidate is very appealing as a very human candidate. So congrats to MWS, Brett, UA, WiseGuy, etc.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:41 pm
Thanks MarkG. Rudy is a fine person, just not my candidate. He is better than anything that the dems offer…
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:42 pm
thanks markg
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:44 pm
Michael Lawrence, I agree that McCain will never try to pull an amnesty stunt again, because he knows that he can’t survive that, politically. The base simply won’t allow him to get away with it.
If you think Rush is bad for the party, then you should indeed be supporting McCain. But I was merely trying to show how McCain could get annihilated when people are reminded that there’s more to him than the fact that he was tortured in Vietnam and supported the surge. That’s how Rudy will pull off a victory: he will be the guy that is not John McCain and not Mike Huckabee.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:45 pm
has anyone seen Mitt speak yet?
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:48 pm
TLG,
“The base simply won’t allow him to get away with it.”
What are you talking about?! All along we heard Iowans were immigration hawks. They just gave half their votes to amnesty champions (I’m demagoguing here) McCain and Huckabee.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:48 pm
UA, apparantly he spoke at the same time Huck did?!?
Total weasel! How fitting! Zero character.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:49 pm
Who had a bigger turnout? dems or reps?
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:53 pm
dems by a little over 2-to-1. They set quite the record unforutnately
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:54 pm
2 to 1? :-O
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:55 pm
Ironically, I also think Rudy has been hurt somewhat by the success of the surge in Iraq and the success of our anti-terrorism efforts in general, not to mention the WH folding its tent on Iran.
As those issues recede and more domestic ones take hold, that hurts Rudy big.
A lot can still happen. For example, a major terrorist attack, capturing or killing a terrorist leader, some big foriegn policy thing, who knows?
But with US deaths in Iraq down to below 1 a day, no terror attacks in the US for going on 6+ years, etc… I think people may be ready to just forget about foreign policy and defense.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:57 pm
Abe, your “Huck-a-bust” meme was a great slogan. Nobody faults you for having a crush on your guy. I hope you continue to participate. Mitt needs somebody to love him!
LOL! j/k. I feel your pain. I started out as a Brownbacker.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:58 pm
It’s a little misleading also. Dems traditionally get a much higher turnout in the IA caucus. However, it’s still nothing to rejoice about.
January 3rd, 2008 at 11:59 pm
Metro, really? You’re calling bad timing zero character? How would he even know?
January 4th, 2008 at 12:00 am
Imagine what an idiot Tancredo is feeling like. HAHA!
January 4th, 2008 at 12:00 am
when are these precincts coming in? I need a final result!
January 4th, 2008 at 12:02 am
PnGrata, they know. After elections like this, the candidates usually coordinate with the media so they aren’t speaking at the same time.
January 4th, 2008 at 12:02 am
metro – he did? Did any of the news media catch it?
January 4th, 2008 at 12:02 am
At least this can be said of the dems: They know when to exit. Dodd and Biden are gone. Earth to Duncan Hunter….
McCain could still pull off a third place finish….
January 4th, 2008 at 12:02 am
Why would Tancredo feel like an idiot?
January 4th, 2008 at 12:03 am
87% reporting:
http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008-presidential-candidates/primaries/states/ia/r/
January 4th, 2008 at 12:04 am
I must say, it is nice to see a Clinton lose for once.
January 4th, 2008 at 12:06 am
anyone know why the GOP takes so much longer to report than the dems?
Prediction from here out:
NH-McCain
MI-McCain
SC-Huckabee(Fred drops out and backs McCain)
FL-McCain
2/5-McCain
Nominee-McCain v Obama, Obama wins.
January 4th, 2008 at 12:06 am
#380 – I’m sure she will try to downplay it like it’s not a big deal
January 4th, 2008 at 12:12 am
RCP average:
McCain-45
Obama-45
nobody else is competitive with Obama right now…
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#charts
January 4th, 2008 at 12:15 am
Obama is going to be a very difficult general election candidate for anyone to beat. But, my feeling is that McCain is the only guy who can compete against him for independents.
January 4th, 2008 at 12:16 am
#365 – actually, in this case, Huckabee was being the weasel. The victor is supposed to give his opponent the opportunity to concede before making the victory speech.
January 4th, 2008 at 12:16 am
New Hampshire should be a good gauge of this. With both Obama and McCain now favored in NH, we should get an idea of who will attract independents to the polls better.
January 4th, 2008 at 12:18 am
google “McCain letter to Obama” BRUTAL. McCain will beat Obama.
January 4th, 2008 at 12:22 am
Congrats to the Huckabackers. While I’ve had Mitt as my first choice for a while, Huck is my 2nd choice and you guys won big tonight and earned it. It’s been hard reading the negative comments back and forth between supporters of my top two, but if it winds up Huck vs. Mac by the time I vote on Feb. 5, then give me Huck.
January 4th, 2008 at 12:22 am
Huckabust…nope, way off on that one.
HUCKAMONSTER…spot on.
As a Romney supporter, i will stay on the ship until i must leave…i could still vote for Guiliani, Thompson ( i think he is done though), and maybe if i absolutely, no way in he!! could find a way out of it, Johny boy. I still think that my man has still got shot, but he is the major underdog, and now he has got to do something amazing, no clue what, maybe he could do a Mormon speech, (nope, already done that).
As for him losing, never thought that that the evangelicals detested him that much, 51% to 10%…wow.
January 4th, 2008 at 12:25 am
What are you talking about?! All along we heard Iowans were immigration hawks. They just gave half their votes to amnesty champions (I’m demagoguing here) McCain and Huckabee.
People don’t realize that Huckabee is an amnesty champion.
They think he’s tough on immigration. Ever look at the comments on his website’s blog?
January 4th, 2008 at 12:27 am
390, Not even after the millions of dollars Mitt’s “contrast ads”? Maybe you just think Iowans are dumb because they haded Rudy his butt tonight.
January 4th, 2008 at 12:52 am
The challenge for Huckabee is that as he moves out of Iowa, and away from evangelical voters who are apparently willing to believe that his opponents are simply making up ridiculous things about his record as governor (especially if the charges are made by a member of the Mormon cult), HE IS ACTUALLY GOING TO HAVE TO DEFEND HIMSELF! Some might take his word because he was a Southern Baptist preacher, but his record will not bear rational scrutiny. He will have accomplished what McCain and Rudy had hoped, but he will not be a factor by February 5.
January 4th, 2008 at 1:07 am
I look forward to working with other Republicans to alter the nominating process in 2012 so that Iowa is not “first in the nation.” I’d prefer to identify four red/purple states (each in a different region) for the initial round. These actual states could change each cycle. Iowas track record, even before tonight, has not been that good. And tonight’s debacle has not been good for the party. RUDY WAS RIGHT! (of course, he didn’t have much choice). It is amazing to me to look at the precipitous decline of the Republican party in just the last four years. I have been an active republican since 1978 and I have never been less optimistic about the party’s future (though the full primary process may yet inspire me). IS THERE ANYONE ON THIS SITE WHO WAS NOT SUPPORTING HUCKABEE BEFORE TONIGHT WHO BELIEVES HE HAS ANY CHANCE OF GETTING TO THE WHITE HOUSE? THE NOMINATION?