GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
ARG New Hampshire GOP Primary
- John McCain 35% (30%)
- Mitt Romney 25% (30%)
- Mike Huckabee 12% (11%)
- Ron Paul 9% (7%)
- Rudy Giuliani 8% (9%)
- Fred Thompson 1% (3%)
- Duncan Hunter 1% (1%)
- Alan Keyes 1% (1%)
Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in New Hampshire (484 Republicans and 116 undeclared (independent) voters). Sample Dates: January 1-3, 2008. Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points.
Keep in mind that this doesn’t take into account last night’s Caucus results. The McCain campaign must be extremely happy with this result. I eagerly look forward to the post-Iowa polls over the weekend.
January 4th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
Nothing like a distant 4th place to rally the base
January 4th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
Hello, all (McCain-site publisher)-
Yes, we all know it’s an ARG poll and they always overestimate McCain’s support. Nonetheless, when he has a ten-point lead in one of their polls, at worst, that means he’s tied. (And as LJ points out, that poll was taken before Mitt’s downfall in Iowa.)
January 4th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
AND an AP article just now says, “Thompson, a former Tennessee senator, flew home to the Washington suburbs rather than New England.”
January 4th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
LaJ - Thompson’s retreated back for his last stand in SC - he’s skipping NH and leaving his 1% support there on the battlefield.
January 4th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
This poll provides old information and until we know where those 116 independents go it’s hard to determine how close the race really is. It’s fun!!
January 4th, 2008 at 5:53 pm
Hey, Alan Keyes showed up.
January 4th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODZjODg4YTM5YWU1ZGFlZWUzNDFjZTBhYjc4ZDA4NWI=
January 4th, 2008 at 5:55 pm
Thompson will be viciously battling Keyes for 7th place bragging rights!
January 4th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
So if he is skipping NH then he will become even more irrelevant when SC comes around. Good luck.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:01 pm
ARG!? This is the poll that had Romney up 9 in Iowa 3 days ago! Zogby has McCain up 4, Suffolk poll has Romney up 4. ARG is THE crap poll of crap polls.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
BREAKING NEWS: EDWARDS WILL GO AFTER ROMNEY IN NH TO WIN INDEPENDENTS…
He will focus on corporate greed and run TV ads against on this issue… mentioning Mitt R.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
With the high hopes for Thompson earlier this year you have to think that his handlers really squandered an opportunity. Campaigning on the internet? “Testing the waters”?
I think the Thompson campaign officials would be better off selling shoes at JCPenney’s.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:04 pm
But ARG wasn’t half bad with their IA prediction…
January 4th, 2008 at 6:05 pm
“BREAKING NEWS: EDWARDS WILL GO AFTER ROMNEY IN NH TO WIN INDEPENDENTS… ”
Haha. I love it.
Eddie Haskell vs. his twin brother Willard Haskell.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:09 pm
“BREAKING NEWS: EDWARDS WILL GO AFTER ROMNEY IN NH TO WIN INDEPENDENTS… �
It’s the battle of the hair!!!
January 4th, 2008 at 6:09 pm
Why wouldn’t Fred got directly to SC?
Instead he goes home to sleep… that is presidential material folks.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:10 pm
BREAKING NEWS: EDWARDS WILL GO AFTER ROMNEY IN NH TO WIN INDEPENDENTS… He will focus on corporate greed and run TV ads against on this issue… mentioning Mitt R.
Uh..!?
Battle of the Losers, anyone!?
January 4th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
Ten-point lead for McCain? Wow…
http://www.political-buzz.com/
January 4th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
I just got ahold of a memo from a friend in the Edwards campaign and it says they have ads developed to go after Mitt in NH focusing on corporate greed and it goes after him pretty hard. I haven’t seen the ad yet but it looks like a big 100K buy planned starting tomorrow.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
THat’d probably help romney if edwards was attacking him.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
fuck
January 4th, 2008 at 6:13 pm
ass
January 4th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
I have to say that I don’t understand the move by Edwards. With New hampshire’s infamous Great Leftward Lurch of 2006 wouldn’t it behoove the Breck Girl to try to clobber McCain on the war? Didn’t left-leaning Independents desert the GOP last year because of it?
I’m glad he’s going after Romney instead but I don’t know that it’s his best option.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
All Romney needs to do is tell the voters of New Hampshire that with the deomcrats and liberal press attacking him, should not that them what they need to do? If he really wanted to get the independent vote, he would attack mccain, but the deomcrats are not going to attack McCain nor Huckabee. Desn’t anyone else see what is happening?
January 4th, 2008 at 6:18 pm
All this being said because we know how easy it has been to predict this race so far….
January 4th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
Greg,
But it’s not just the Democrats and the liberal press. Every Republican candidate except Romney hates Romney more than they hate each other. And conservative papers have gone out of their way to tell the masses not to vote for the man.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
Greg,
All i see happening is Romney’s demise my friend. The Union Leader is THE newspaper of New Hampshire and the conservative paper of New Hampshire, and they are supporter John McCain with everything they’ve got.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
That is what we want Edwards and McCain attacking the same guy! That would only help bolster Romney to have someone like Edwards running attack ads alongside McCain against Romney. Go Edwards!! Attack away. The Democrats are crapping in their pants at the prospect of having to face Romney in the general. They are giddy about facing Huckabee, That should tell people something.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
Like i have said, we have been so good at predicting these things in the past.. NO ONE KNOWS WHAT THE DEMS ARE THINKING. NOT EVEN THE DEMS.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
Democrats are not crapping their pants at the thought of facing Romney. Trust me on this one.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
Here is a gem from McCain’s spokesperson:
“Clearly the Romney campaign is nervous, because they know that a leadership and stature gap exists between Mitt Romney and John McCain – and hiding behind surrogates to do their dirty work won’t do anything to change that fact. John McCain is the most authentic and the most experienced, which is why he has the momentum in this race,” Hazelbaker said.
Didn’t McCain use newspaper surrogates in an ad to call Romney “phony”. He is really starting to disappoint me.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
Jared,
In 2004 the Flip Flop candidate lost my friend, we dont want a repeat of that with Willard!
January 4th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
Adam, why are the democrats and liberal press not attacking the others? The conservative papers that have attacked Romney are the ones that have already endorsed somebody else. I actually think that the other republicans dislike him so much is because he is the best candidate and is the guy that the GOP leaders are pulling for. It’s no secret that the current GOP leaders realy want Romney.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
#30 - “Democrats are not crapping their pants at the thought of facing Romney. Trust me on this one.”
Why? Are you a Democrat? Maybe a Democrat plant here to prop up Huckabee?
January 4th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
Romney is a phony. I don’t want to jinx it, but I am fairly certain that Tuesday Night is the end of the line for Mitt.
“The Mitt doesn’t fit because he just isn’t legit.”
January 4th, 2008 at 6:25 pm
#32 - And who do you support in the race that is not a flip-flop? If you say anyone other than Rudy or Fred, you are a liar. Both McCain and Huckabee have flip-flopped just as much, if not more than Romney.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:25 pm
#34, no Dick Morris does that for us
January 4th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
#33
I wouldn’t necessarily consider it a boost to have the current GOP leaders supporting you. Most of them should be booted out of office for their reckless spending.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
Jared,
Nope. Not a Democrat. I’m a Republican. I voted for one Democrat my entire life and that was because she was unopposed in my upstate NY assembly district (and she might as well be a Republican on the issues). But if Romney is the nominee it would be my least enthusiastic vote I ever cast.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
Greg,
It’s Just. Not. True. The other candidates dislike him because he is running a despicable campaign. He changed his positions out of convenience and then he attacks the other candidates for supporting the same things that he supported only a couple of years ago. He spends millions of advertising to “tattle tale” about sins of the other candidates. And then in the most holier-than-thou fashion he tries to pretend that he is Mr. Conservative and pure as the wind-driven snow.
If I were running a campaign I’d want to punch his teeth out too.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
Bryan,
I am beginning to think you are Senator McCain. In almost every thread that you post in, I can find a post where you call the other person, “my friend”. McCain does that with EVERYONE. It is one of his quirks that bothers me. Don’t assume people are your friends, just because you address them as, “my friend”. Kind of like when people say, “the fact is” on something that has no basis is fact, just to make their opinion sound justified by facts.
Just curious if I am bashing the good old Senator “mano a mano.” 
January 4th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
We know what the democrats are thinking by their actions, and they attack Romney much more than anyone else. The love the idea of going up against McCain, a wreckless guy would would be over 80 when he finished an 8-year term. He would be easy kill for the democrats.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:31 pm
#39 - “But if Romney is the nominee it would be my least enthusiastic vote I ever cast.”
Hey, nobody ever said that doing the right thing was always doing the fun thing. But at least you could say you voted for the right guy!!
January 4th, 2008 at 6:31 pm
“It’s no secret that the current GOP leaders realy want Romney.”
I’ve got news for you. The current GOP leaders aren’t going to get what they want. Limbaugh is going to be humbled in a big way. After wailing on McCain about how horrible he was in 2000, he’s going to have to jump on board with him in the likely event that Mitt loses on Tuesday.
It’s looking to be either Huckabee or McCain. Not a good day to be Rush Limbaugh.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
#37 - True!
I wouldn’t wear that as a badge of honor though! 
LOL
January 4th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
Every one of our candidates has catch phrases.
McCain - “My friend…’
Romney - “Gosh…”,
Rudy - “The reality is…”
Thompson - “Uhhh….Ummm…”
Huckabee - “Main Street not Wall Street”
January 4th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
Jared,
Both McCain and Huckabee have flip-flopped just as much, if not more than Romney.
HAHAHAHAHA!
Thanks. I needed a good laugh.
Mitt Romney has flip flopped on abortion, gay-rights, taxes, guns, embryonic stem-cell research, Ronald Reagan, the Contract with America, his draft-dodging, sex education, immigration, and campaign finance-reform. There’s not much left to flip flop on.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:39 pm
#46 - LOL true.
#47 - LJ, if you can’t see the truth of your guys dismal stance on the issues, then the best I can do is make you laugh.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
LJ,
It’s dishonest posts like your #47 that are holding you back from a greater potential.
You and I have personally been over atleast half of those. You always end up falling silent with a lack of facts, to bring up the accusations another day.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:45 pm
LJ
I call BS on your statement. MCCain flips all over the place too.
Immigration-amnesty, no its not, lets not build the fence, oh I understand lets build the fence first
tax cuts- i love them, no i hate them, no I love them again, no I only want them if they have spending limits,
Then lets remember that he is responsible for the most egregious of reforms- MCCain-Feingold.
Doesnt it say something that he and Edwards are both going to hit Romney for what- being a rich guy.
Class warfare is a Democratic ploy, not something a GOP candidate for Pres should do.
I was a Huck fan for a while until he pulled this class warfare thing and if MCcain does it too then he is in the same boat.
We are not Dems, we are the GOP!!! We have to stand by our principles,all of them or we are done as a party, its that simple
January 4th, 2008 at 6:47 pm
Why don’t these counterfeit Republicans come up with another name? They are trying to turn it into a party I’m not proud of. Strong on social, except illegals, Ignorant and weak on foreign policy, and fiscally liberal. Pretty sickening. If Huckabee gets elected, he’ll get slaughter in the general, because the real Republicans will stay home.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:48 pm
47 — I think that Mitt Romney’s flip-flopping comments about him wanting to fight in Vietnam were some of the most disgusting, transparently phony words in the entire annals of Williardom.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:48 pm
McCain is officially last on my list of people who I want to see nominated. He’s just a bitter, angry old politician who’ll do anything to viciously and personally attack people (right now Romney, stay tuned). I am a Republican and a conservative, but if McCain gets the nomination I’ll have some serious doubts about my party in 2008. I always wondered why conservatives hate him so much, and now I get it. Gah, this is so irritating!
January 4th, 2008 at 6:50 pm
cj — Don’t forget McCain’s environmentalism/cap-and-trade, and moralizing opposition to waterboarding, and lying about terrorists being protected by the Geneva Conventions, and liberal rhetoric about “restoring our moral standing in the world,” and sucking up to the MSM.
January 4th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
Brian — Yep. The only way Republicans ever end up voting for McCain is when they’re tricked into doing it by the MSM.
January 4th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
Adam,
If Romney ever ceases to infuriate you it will be because he ceases to be a player. That obviously hasn’t happened yet. If it ever does, it will signify that Huckabee is our nominee.
January 4th, 2008 at 8:02 pm
This looks reasonable in that only 18% of the voters polled are independants - sounds about right to me. For context in 2000, 43% of voters were independant.
January 4th, 2008 at 11:55 pm
I still don’t see how a McCain 4th place finish helps him and a 2nd place finish by Romney in Iowa hurts him, even though he had strong FiCon support in the state. I guess it’s a media spin. Go ahead and argue the expectation game with me, then I will argue back the Independent voter issue - this still is favoring Romney. Of course, America will get what it deserves - I am realizing that Iowa doesn’t deserve Romney, and maybe we will find out that NH doesn’t deserve Romney either - perhaps America deserves a liberal rookie or someone who dies of old age in office - or perhaps a baptist minister so that Americans can stay away from church but still get sermons when they turn on CNN for the next 4-8 years.
Can you tell I’m still bitter?
January 5th, 2008 at 11:47 am
I’m confident that NH voters will not turn out for Romney. He left MA a mess with the most liberal Governor elected to replace him because MA voters were sick of having such a terrible GOP Governor! Maybe if he had made some real changes in MA, they would all stop moving to NH!! Romney has no idea how the middle class survives (and doesn’t survive!), he’s a rich spoiled man with houses all over the country, including a multi-million dollar summer home in NH. I want a President who understands the real struggles of the majority of U.S. citizens, from real life experiences. He’s just too plastic. If he is the GOP candidate, I will not vote for the first time in my life.
January 5th, 2008 at 2:13 pm
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