You have to have 10% to be awarded delegates in NH. I think Huckabee’s debate performance last night was such that he will drop below 10%. I would guess that only McCain and Romney will get delegates.
from the looks of the polls, i think mccain is going to win new hampshire. if he doesn’t he is done. if he does by a safe marigin, he is the new frontrunner.
It sure looks like mccain is incommand in this poll. The new rasmussen poll has only 27% of independents voting in the republican primary, which puts him pretty much even with Romney. It looked like the magic number for independets is in the 25-30% range. If independents vote over 30% on the GOP primary, McCain has it won. If it’s under 30%, it is very competitive and the turnout becomes important. If it’s under 25%, things look good for Romney.
it going to be close to 40%. The thing is that alot of people are getting wrong about the indies is that when 70% was planning to vote in Dems you had Obama with the younger ones and Hillary with the older ones. The older ones are leaving Hillary for McCain hence why that number is moving up.
January 7th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
ron paul 5?
Rasmussen gave him 14 two days ago, and today he has only 8.
January 7th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
It’s Opinion Dynamics. Need to say more?
January 7th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
You have to have 10% to be awarded delegates in NH. I think Huckabee’s debate performance last night was such that he will drop below 10%. I would guess that only McCain and Romney will get delegates.
January 7th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
from the looks of the polls, i think mccain is going to win new hampshire. if he doesn’t he is done. if he does by a safe marigin, he is the new frontrunner.
January 7th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
McCain now leads in the RCP national average, for the first time in forever.
January 7th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
For Hillary lovers, this poll has her down only 4%, within moe. I think her near crying today will also help with women.
January 7th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
It sure looks like mccain is incommand in this poll. The new rasmussen poll has only 27% of independents voting in the republican primary, which puts him pretty much even with Romney. It looked like the magic number for independets is in the 25-30% range. If independents vote over 30% on the GOP primary, McCain has it won. If it’s under 30%, it is very competitive and the turnout becomes important. If it’s under 25%, things look good for Romney.
January 7th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
it going to be close to 40%. The thing is that alot of people are getting wrong about the indies is that when 70% was planning to vote in Dems you had Obama with the younger ones and Hillary with the older ones. The older ones are leaving Hillary for McCain hence why that number is moving up.
January 7th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Paul, nice analysis!
January 7th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
that on since Crowd sizes matter McCain crowds are touncing Romneys (Heck even Huckabee is outdrawing Romney in some cases).
January 7th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Re: Crowds — most of Romney’s people have jobs, and are less “rah, rah” in nature…