Hey, on the Democratic side, Hillary is actually LEADING Obama, albiet not by much (4%) and with only 13% of precincts reporting. Still… at the least this will probably be close enough for her to spin as a win.
So, genius’s, who is in first place in the delegate race? O.K., if you don’t like that question, who is the #1 contender, and who is the #2 contender? Have fun with this one.
Seriously, if things don’t turn around for him quickly Obamamania could go down in history as the quickest fad in history (replacing the Macarena, probably).
no results yet from southern counties near MA. How come? Long lines there perhaps? I hate that the results are so slow. I expected McCain to win tonight, but I think his margin will be less than 5%. That would be a moral victory.
You all are way too early. Just because Fox News said the McCain wins does not make it so. Romney is gaining on him. Plus, not even 25% of the state results are in yet. You all are idiots if you think this thing is over all ready.
This is very depressing. I can’t support McCain in November, and I’ve never voted for a Democrat in my life. If Mitt can’t come back in Michigan, the country will just have to go to Hell.
Wiseguy: You obviously don’t understand Rombot’s Rule. Rombot’s Rule clearly states that momentum is only relevant if it benefits Mitt Romney. And since momentum no longer benefits Romney, it is no longer relevant.
On #34. Politico, CNN, Foxnews, realclearpolitics, msnbc., and probably others have all published articles saying mccain one. i think they care about their reputations.
#42: Yes, and seeing how McCain is up by 9 per cent and Obama is DOWN by 5 per cent, it is pretty much a given that it will stay that way, even if Obama eventually pulls this thing off.
LOL I thought Romney was supposed to sweep Iowa and NH and thereby collect unstoppable mo? That was all I read on this board for almost a year. What a joke.
Romney won’t drop out. He’ll lose Michigan to McCain with Huckabee 2nd. Then, Huckabee will win South Carolina. Romney will be a 2nd tier candidate by the end of the month.
Florida, your right. He isnt a one trick pony like Huck and McCain. He will lead after tonight with total number of votes cast. He will also be the delegate leader after tonight. That said–
31-Huck has little chance of being on any ticket in November. Don’t stay home if he is though, you should vote for the democrat so you can help the fiscal candidate win.
“Wiseguy: You obviously don’t understand Rombot’s Rule. Rombot’s Rule clearly states that momentum is only relevant if it benefits Mitt Romney. And since momentum no longer benefits Romney, it is no longer relevant.”
O.K. wiseguy, who has the momentum right now, and why?
First of all wiseguy didn’t write that, I did, and I wrote it because all of a sudden the same people who a year ago claimed it was impossible to win the nomination without winning Iowa or New Hampshire claiming Romney still has a shot.
Guys, we’re all Republicans here and that is the race we are invested in, but the story of the night is Hill’s comeback. This could be great news for our team no matter who we nominate!
On #85. I know. I think it’s b/c of the crying - which was definetly STAGED.
But still the exit polls only show her barely winning women (40-36%). Maybe that’s enough. She probably also brought in new women voters the polls didn’t capture.
No he won’t. The money flies to McCain now. And Independents get to vote in Michigan. They will vote in the GOP contest in droves because there is no Dem contest. Most of them won’t pull the lever for Mr. “Let’s move In God We Trust To The Front Of The Coin”.
On that logic, the race is difficult for many Republicans, including those here. JMac is the enemy. Mitt is the enemy even more. So JMac is now a friend.
Romney concession speech is hard to watch. Although he congratulated McCain for running a first class campaign. Is he a little upset that he took heat for his negative campaign with little benefit?
Sean P,
It’s usually a 2-man race at this point. Does anyone here think it is a 2 man race? If so, then the early state strategy works in your favor, if not, it makes no sense. If you believe in the early state strategy and believe this is a 2-man race, you are left to choose between two candidates - John McCain and Mike Huckabee. Some of you still believe in Rudy, now you say, it’s McCain vs. Rudy. I am trying to understand the logic going on in people’s heads right now. As a Romney supporter, I would switch to McCain if it was between Huck, Rudy, and McCain, but guess what IT ISN’T, Romney can simplify things by dropping out of the race, but it’s probably not going to happen.
I hope you all understand that it is hard to give up on your candidate when he is actually winning the race. I don’t think that is sinking into anyone’s skull at this point in time. Why would Romney quit when he is winning? Why would Romney quit when he is tearing Rudy apart in numbers right now?
I will say it again for all of you, Romney either wins or we have a split convention. If you don’t like those options, then you better hope and pray that Romney gets out of the race.
Gary, agreed (with the caveat that the large number of Democratic votes in the primary versus the number of Republican votes isn’t the best of omens). New Hampshire voters are once again proving that the “youth vote” is the single most overrated democraphic in US electoral political history.
Well, Romney is the loser tonight along with some of the losers on this site with their disparaging posts.
We all expected McCain to win and he met expectations. (congrats to him for hitting a marging much higher than I thought.) He has some momentum now. Let’s see if he can play it better than he did in 2000.
I know why Mitt always thinks he is going to win…his team travels ahead of him and replaces all his opponents’ signs with his signs, so he thinks he’s the only candidate anybody likes…and he keeps writing checks to his team.
This is not a good speech… poor guy. I feel really bad for Romney now. Maybe he doesn’t have a heart… I never though he had one before… surely he doesn’t look like a commander and chief though.
He is about to cry… like Clinton. The fact that Americans don’t believe in Mitt Romney… shows they do not believe he will strengthen America! Poor fellow.
On #100. Look Mitt Romney is a decent guy, no doubt about that. Quite frankly I think I’d get along better with him personally then McCain. But here’s the thing, he’s a cynical politican. He believes it’s just about changing your positions to match the electorate and then hammering on the issues. We can do better then that.
Barone says that the Dem primary is still not conclusive but some trends favoring Hill. Obama not winning the high-income liberal vote by as much as expected. Hillary doing fairly well in working class towns.
jcutler: you do realize you are reciting Rudy Giuliani talking points right now, and the same talking points that Romney supporters have been mocking for months, at that.
As far as momentum, McCain and Huckabee have it, nobody else does. Rudy could get momentum back in Florida if McCain hasn’t wrapped the nomination up by then, which makes South Carolina the deciding state. And I actually think that McCain’s chances there are pretty good — McCain is popular with veterans, there are 2 southerners splitting the favorite son vote, and the confederate flag issue appears to be (thankfully) dead. If McCain can beat Huckabee in one southern state, Huck’s momentum is stopped cold. If Huck pulls it out in SC, then I think a lot of McCain’s current support could drift back to Rudy.
I’m not so sure Hil wins the nom easily. Obama can count on 50 percent of Democrats in SC being African American. And they already know he can win in almost exclusively white states.
Mitt’s big mistake was trying to be the politician people wanted instead of who he actually was. It made him come across as if he thought people were stupid (joining the NRA just before he started running). He would have come across much better if he had come out as a successful business man that wasn’t as conservative as some would like.
McCain will take Michigan, even though I expect a lot more Ron Paul votes. The Dems are ticked about not being able to vote for who they want so a fair amount will probably just vote GOP to skew the numbers.
Hillary still has a big national lead and a much, much better organization. She will win NV, then lose SC. I’m not sure about Florida, but on 2/5 she will clean house and seal the deal.
Hillary is going to run positively while a 527 attacks Obama.
Romney-win NV and WY, 2nd in IA, NH, MI and SC???????????
Huck-win IA and SC? 3rd in NH and MI
McCain-win in NH and MI, possible win in SC too?
McCain would get the edge in that outcome perhaps, but not a big edge. 2 wins for Mccain, possibly 3. 1 or 2 wins for Huck. 2 wins for Romney, with 2 or 3 2nds?
McCain is so old and tempermental. Seriously. who is going to win the gop nod? there is still no frontrunner. mccain is in front of the pack, but it is still anybody’s race.
I think Romney will certainly lose Michigan, especially given the fact that he can’t claim a close 2nd, or that he won among Republicans. The only thing Mitt can tout is that he will lead in the delegate count.
Mitt should not stay in and try to compete in Nevada and SC unless by some miracle he wins Michigan. If he wants to continue in national politics his best hope is to endorse Thompson hopefully for a VP spot. That will give Thompson SC and probably the nomination.
That would give Romney at least 4 more years, hopefully 8, to work on his conservative credentials and on being consistent and likeable.
I like Romney as much as anyone on this site, but unless he wins Michigan he won’t be able to win the nomination, and his odds of winning Michigan are probably 1 in 20 at best. If he lost MI, his only shot would be if nobody won enough delegates and the convention was brokered. (The ticket would be formed before the convention so it wouldn’t be as exciting as you think) In that unlikely scenario, Mitt wouldn’t be chosen as the nominee or the VP.
All Romney can do after he loses Michigan is endorse Thompson for a spot as the VP. Thompson may not like such situation, but without a Romney endorsement and organization he wouldn’t be able to beat Huckabee in SC.
A Thompson/Romney ticket sounds great to me. It is exactly what I was hoping for back in May before Romney got my hopes up and before Thompson disappointed.
All these calls for Mitt to drop out make me laugh. If anyone should drop out, it is Thompson. Thompson has gotten less NH votes than the write-in candidates. Crazy Ron Paul has 8 times the number of votes as Thompson.
again, as we head to Florida it will look like this.
Mitt:
Wyoming and Nevada and 3 silver medals
Huck:
Iowa and South Carolina and 1 silver medal
Mccain:
New Hampshire and Michigan and 2 silver medal
Thats assuming that Mitt wins NV with Mccain 2nd. And Huck wins SC with McCain 2nd.
Rudy might look like a genius. With the race in flux like that on Jan 17th, who challenges him. Florida might well be everyones firewall. All compete, and the top 2 fight on super tuesday.
McCain won’t be the nominee, neither will Huckabee.
Even though it sounds crazy, only Thompson would be able to win enough delegates to take it before the convention (unless Romney miraculously wins MI). He could only do that if Romney dropped out and endorsed him.
That is really, really unlikely, but if Romney stays in until Super Tuesday, it would make 4 candidates splitting delegates.
If you don’t believe me do the math. Look at which states are voting, how they award delegates and who is likely to do well in a 4-way race.
metro,
yea I know. I dont have the same level of vile for Rudy as you do for Romney. In fact, I have said recently that Rudy is my #2 solid choice behind Romney. Obama is a distant 3rd choice because I dislike Huck/Mccain so much.
But do you agree with my assessment in 150? If so, who is stronger against Rudy come Jan 17th. Your gut might say McCain for winning tonight and also likely winning MI, but consider too that Huck and Mitt (SC and NV) will likely win on Jan 17th, with McCain getting 2nd in each I would think.
thats the thing Metro, this race is so in flux still. Everyone makes hay about IA and NH. We are expected to draw conclusions based on these 1st 2 states. Why?
I think that Mitt will see a similar finish in MI as he did tonight and be down and out for about 48 hrs. He will win NV, Huck will beat McCain in SC, and Mccain will be deflated some from losing both. Each will have 2 wins going into Florida.
Huck fan-
Tell me how Huck or McCain has more mojo than Romney if…
Romney wins WY and NV, and gets 2nd in IA, NH, and MI
Huck wins IA and SC, and get 3rd in NH and MI
McCain wins NH and MI, and gets 2nd in SC
Tell me how any of them have a stronger case for the White House than the other. This thing will go to Florida and Super Tuesday. Tonight was the beginning, not the end for anyone. Anybody could be a one trick pony like McCain and Huck, Romney fights in every state, and its far from over.
Romney has the majority of republicans against him everywhere he goes. He’s a dishonest liberal wolf in sheep’s clothing and people see through him everywhere he goes. People don’t trust him. He claims he’s pro choice for 20 years and then changes his values to fit poll numbers in Iowa. If he’s willing to change on one issue why not all of them? Which one’s is he going to stick to his convictions on? Does the platform he runs on mean anything if you can’t trust the man it’s coming from? His state is 5th highest in the nation for state income tax burden, not a very conservative policy. Huckabee’s Arkansas is 48th lowest in the state. Tonight was just the icing on the cake, the state right next door that’s as liberal as he is won’t even give him the gold and they hand the bronze to a southern conservative, Huck.
The moral majority(evangelicals as the media likes to call them) are tired of the phony East-Coast liberals disguised as conservatives that get pushed on to us every election. We’ve dealt with Bush for the last 8 years, who wanted amnesty and rolled over and died on all the domestic issues giving them to democrats(they should love him), and the tax and spend republican congress who passes the largest medicaid increase in history and goes 9 trillion dollars in debt. They don’t care to fix the abortion, gay-marriage, religious freedom and religious persecution, and the lack of the right to pray as an individual in our schools and public buildings, or any of the other issues that matter to the christian conservatives. Every election the establishment candidate comes and tells us they care, but they don’t want to fix the issues because they won’t be able to fleece us into the polls every election. It’s the same thing with Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton on the other side of the aisle. They don’t really want to fix the issues that matter to blacks or the gravy train will stop a rollin. The truth is the establishment republicans though they hate us, they can’t win an election without us, we don’t need you and we’ve realized this. We’re tired of having to pick between the lesser of two evils and end up taking it in the backside. This time you guys can compromise and pick the lesser of two evils, Huckabee or Hillary.
Huckabee leads in the latest Michigan polls and is a sure win in South Carolina, Kentucky, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and just about other bible belt conservative state. He is also 2nd in Florida and California, which is the big prize. He’s also had to clean up the Clinton’s mess in Arkansas and can beat them in an election, not to mention he carries a huge black, southern-baptist vote in states like Mississippi and Louisiana which traditionally vote for Democrats.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:10 pm
Jumping the gun a bit, I think!
January 8th, 2008 at 8:10 pm
hahahaha Romney… YOU ARE DONE
January 8th, 2008 at 8:11 pm
woot
January 8th, 2008 at 8:11 pm
Amazing.
Whatever it is that had some of us come to dislike Romney is viral.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
sweet! with romney out of the way, now huckabee can sweep the field!
January 8th, 2008 at 8:13 pm
Anyone but Mitt Romney…. Thank you Republicans!!!
McCain/Giuliani 08!
January 8th, 2008 at 8:14 pm
Jumping the gun? MSNBC, CNN, and FOX have all called it for McCain.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:15 pm
The most amazing turnaround in recent political history. And a huge embarrassment for Romney.
http://www.political-buzz.com/
January 8th, 2008 at 8:16 pm
Intrade Update
JMac 40.0
Rudy 27.0
Huck 14.3
Mitt 8.5
January 8th, 2008 at 8:16 pm
McCain must be ecstatic. We all now know much he hates Romney.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:16 pm
Romney should drop out… had his chance… he failed… GET OUT MITT!
January 8th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
ROMNEY IS THROUGH!!
January 8th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
I am sure it is too early..
January 8th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
Huckabee / McCain 2008!!!
January 8th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
Hehehehehehehehehehehe
January 8th, 2008 at 8:18 pm
DROP OUT ROMNEY AND ENDORSE FRED
January 8th, 2008 at 8:19 pm
Huckabee v McCain v Thompson in SC.
That should be interesting too.
Guesses?
January 8th, 2008 at 8:19 pm
Hill up by 5% with 13% in. Wow.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:19 pm
EAT CROW, ROMBOTS
January 8th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
I wonder how the phone call will go?
January 8th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
I AM NOT for Romney, but isn’t it kinda early?
January 8th, 2008 at 8:22 pm
Hey, on the Democratic side, Hillary is actually LEADING Obama, albiet not by much (4%) and with only 13% of precincts reporting. Still… at the least this will probably be close enough for her to spin as a win.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:22 pm
So, genius’s, who is in first place in the delegate race? O.K., if you don’t like that question, who is the #1 contender, and who is the #2 contender? Have fun with this one.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:23 pm
Romney GOODBYE!
January 8th, 2008 at 8:23 pm
Hill up 5 with 14% in.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:24 pm
Gary where are you getting your numbers, they seem to be ahead of the curve.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
If Hill gets up by 9% will the MSM call the race?
January 8th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
jrcutler, see #9
January 8th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
Seriously, if things don’t turn around for him quickly Obamamania could go down in history as the quickest fad in history (replacing the Macarena, probably).
January 8th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
jrcutler: Delegates don’t matter at this stage. Momentum matters.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
I Huckabee is on the ticket in November I won’t be voting.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:26 pm
no results yet from southern counties near MA. How come? Long lines there perhaps? I hate that the results are so slow. I expected McCain to win tonight, but I think his margin will be less than 5%. That would be a moral victory.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:26 pm
Jack, the difference is that Obama led the exit poll 35-30, where as JMac led the exit poll 34-29. Do you see the difference?
January 8th, 2008 at 8:27 pm
You all are way too early. Just because Fox News said the McCain wins does not make it so. Romney is gaining on him. Plus, not even 25% of the state results are in yet. You all are idiots if you think this thing is over all ready.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2008/by_state/US_Page_0108_VD.html?SITE=CSPANELN&SECTION=POLITICS
January 8th, 2008 at 8:27 pm
Jcutler, dont you get it. Intrade will decide our nominee, not votes, and not delegates. come on man.
Havent you listened to Metro these past 12 months?
January 8th, 2008 at 8:27 pm
This is very depressing. I can’t support McCain in November, and I’ve never voted for a Democrat in my life. If Mitt can’t come back in Michigan, the country will just have to go to Hell.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:28 pm
Wiseguy: You obviously don’t understand Rombot’s Rule. Rombot’s Rule clearly states that momentum is only relevant if it benefits Mitt Romney. And since momentum no longer benefits Romney, it is no longer relevant.
Hope that straightens everything out.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:28 pm
34
CNN too. McCain.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:28 pm
On #34. Politico, CNN, Foxnews, realclearpolitics, msnbc., and probably others have all published articles saying mccain one. i think they care about their reputations.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:28 pm
I’m speechless.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:29 pm
Ajay,
How do they know how the other 80% of the state voted?
January 8th, 2008 at 8:29 pm
Is McCain’s margin larger than Obama’s?
January 8th, 2008 at 8:30 pm
sampo. Please. For all of our sakes, remain speechless tonight please.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:30 pm
Romney must drop out… he is a joke…
January 8th, 2008 at 8:30 pm
McCain won, but Romney is still the delegates leader. We’ll have to see what happends in Michigan.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:31 pm
sampo - are you doing the happy dance???
congrats
January 8th, 2008 at 8:31 pm
Metro,
I think there is a big hole in the Republican party if they have to decide between Rudy and McCain.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:31 pm
Sorry all. I typed that before they announced on the channel I was watching. Humble pie
January 8th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
Has everyone forgot that McCain won NH in 2000 and still lost the nomination?
January 8th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
On #41. They must have an idea by exit polls.. plus mccain has been in this state before so they have an idea what to look for.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
#42: Yes, and seeing how McCain is up by 9 per cent and Obama is DOWN by 5 per cent, it is pretty much a given that it will stay that way, even if Obama eventually pulls this thing off.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
My predictions:
Mac will only win by 4. Mittens goes on (and on and on and on).
Obama only wins by 3. A 50/50 race again with South Carolina being very important.
POTENTIAL FOR BROKERED CONVENTIONS ON BOTH SIDES!
January 8th, 2008 at 8:33 pm
LOL I thought Romney was supposed to sweep Iowa and NH and thereby collect unstoppable mo? That was all I read on this board for almost a year. What a joke.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:33 pm
Romney won’t drop out. He’ll lose Michigan to McCain with Huckabee 2nd. Then, Huckabee will win South Carolina. Romney will be a 2nd tier candidate by the end of the month.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:34 pm
Florida, your right. He isnt a one trick pony like Huck and McCain. He will lead after tonight with total number of votes cast. He will also be the delegate leader after tonight. That said–
ROMNEY MUST DROP OUT
Florida has said so!!!!!!!!
January 8th, 2008 at 8:34 pm
On #48. A couple differences (that work in both positive and negative directions):
-Back then there was 18 days till the next primary and one opponent / the establishment to attack him
-Back then McCain was not as well known
-Back then the margin of victory was bigger
So we’ll see… I do expect a McCain bounce though as more Republicans will see him not Guiliani as the most electable.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:34 pm
Intrade NH Dem:
Obama 63
Hillary 30
January 8th, 2008 at 8:35 pm
31-Huck has little chance of being on any ticket in November. Don’t stay home if he is though, you should vote for the democrat so you can help the fiscal candidate win.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:35 pm
say goodnight mitt
January 8th, 2008 at 8:35 pm
49
Who beats him now? Not Romney.
Huckabee? Because suicide in painless.
Does Giuliani begin to look good as the alternative to both McCain and Huckabee?
January 8th, 2008 at 8:35 pm
Eric: Huck has the most plausible scenario right now
Do well in Michigan
Win SC
Win Florida
Do well on Feb 5 (California and other states)
It will most likely be either Huckabee / McCain or McCain / Huckabee.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:35 pm
“Wiseguy: You obviously don’t understand Rombot’s Rule. Rombot’s Rule clearly states that momentum is only relevant if it benefits Mitt Romney. And since momentum no longer benefits Romney, it is no longer relevant.”
O.K. wiseguy, who has the momentum right now, and why?
January 8th, 2008 at 8:36 pm
PB on MSNBC - bad news for Rudy, with McCain sweeping the terrorism & war on Iraq voters…
January 8th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
I think Huckabee has the most momentum. He outperformed in Iowa by winning convincingly, and then outperformed in NH by getting a solid 3rd.
He also leads in national polls & South Carolina polls. So he looks very strong.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
Buchanan’s making sense.
Says Romney HAS to win Michigan to stay in.
McCain favored to win because of the way foreign policy conservatives are flocking to him.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:40 pm
Who here agrees that Huckabee has the most momentum?
January 8th, 2008 at 8:40 pm
Ambinder says McCain won republicans by 5 and indies by 12: http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/
January 8th, 2008 at 8:40 pm
Romney to address his supporters in a few minutes.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:40 pm
I have the most serious question of the 2008 race….
January 8th, 2008 at 8:40 pm
On #68. Is he going to drop out?
January 8th, 2008 at 8:40 pm
romney bots= we’re leading in delegates and mitt has nice hair wahwahwah
eat crow!
January 8th, 2008 at 8:40 pm
First of all wiseguy didn’t write that, I did, and I wrote it because all of a sudden the same people who a year ago claimed it was impossible to win the nomination without winning Iowa or New Hampshire claiming Romney still has a shot.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
Will Mitt cry at his speech in a few minutes???
January 8th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
if he says something stupid like “Well we got the silver again” then that’s just ridiculous. What a LOSER!
January 8th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
I was just in my car for 10 minutes. Hugh and Dean Barnett are living in an alternate universe.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
#72 BINGO.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
Romney has conceded to McCain.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:42 pm
Many Republicans are supposed to hate McCain. Never having that view, I can’t measure the depth.
Is all forgiven?
January 8th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
Hillary by 4 with 21% in. Remarkable.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
Gary: Joe Scarborough on MSNBC is living in that same alternate universe. I had to change the channel. It was just sad.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
Wow, Intrade NH Dem update:
Obama 57
Hillary 40
January 8th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
I heard that Romney already called McCain to congratulate
January 8th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
Congratulations to McCain on being the President of New Hampshire..
McCain will take Michigan by quite a margin, due to Independents having no place else to vote.
Congratulations to Barack Obama for winning the Presidency of the United States.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Mitt will give a great positive speech and move on to Michigan which he’ll win to turn things around (as Hill did tonight).
January 8th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Guys, we’re all Republicans here and that is the race we are invested in, but the story of the night is Hill’s comeback. This could be great news for our team no matter who we nominate!
January 8th, 2008 at 8:46 pm
Opinionated. I doubt it. IT’s going to get ugly.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:46 pm
Metro, given what the exit polls say, wouldn’t Obama have some value right now?
January 8th, 2008 at 8:46 pm
On #85. I know. I think it’s b/c of the crying - which was definetly STAGED.
But still the exit polls only show her barely winning women (40-36%). Maybe that’s enough. She probably also brought in new women voters the polls didn’t capture.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:46 pm
Heath,
No he won’t. The money flies to McCain now. And Independents get to vote in Michigan. They will vote in the GOP contest in droves because there is no Dem contest. Most of them won’t pull the lever for Mr. “Let’s move In God We Trust To The Front Of The Coin”.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:46 pm
I called it… “another silver” What a waste. He isn’t the salesman you all thought he was!
Romney supporters booed McCain. Romney’s gay son is in the background.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
The enemy of my enemy is my friend.
On that logic, the race is difficult for many Republicans, including those here. JMac is the enemy. Mitt is the enemy even more. So JMac is now a friend.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
Romney concession speech is hard to watch. Although he congratulated McCain for running a first class campaign. Is he a little upset that he took heat for his negative campaign with little benefit?
January 8th, 2008 at 8:48 pm
Sean P,
It’s usually a 2-man race at this point. Does anyone here think it is a 2 man race? If so, then the early state strategy works in your favor, if not, it makes no sense. If you believe in the early state strategy and believe this is a 2-man race, you are left to choose between two candidates - John McCain and Mike Huckabee. Some of you still believe in Rudy, now you say, it’s McCain vs. Rudy. I am trying to understand the logic going on in people’s heads right now. As a Romney supporter, I would switch to McCain if it was between Huck, Rudy, and McCain, but guess what IT ISN’T, Romney can simplify things by dropping out of the race, but it’s probably not going to happen.
I hope you all understand that it is hard to give up on your candidate when he is actually winning the race. I don’t think that is sinking into anyone’s skull at this point in time. Why would Romney quit when he is winning? Why would Romney quit when he is tearing Rudy apart in numbers right now?
I will say it again for all of you, Romney either wins or we have a split convention. If you don’t like those options, then you better hope and pray that Romney gets out of the race.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:48 pm
Gary, agreed (with the caveat that the large number of Democratic votes in the primary versus the number of Republican votes isn’t the best of omens). New Hampshire voters are once again proving that the “youth vote” is the single most overrated democraphic in US electoral political history.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:48 pm
Luntz’s undecided love Romney’s concession speech.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:49 pm
New Hampshire:
“Live free or…not…whatever…”
January 8th, 2008 at 8:49 pm
Well, Romney is the loser tonight along with some of the losers on this site with their disparaging posts.
We all expected McCain to win and he met expectations. (congrats to him for hitting a marging much higher than I thought.) He has some momentum now. Let’s see if he can play it better than he did in 2000.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:50 pm
ON #95. HAHAHAHA.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:50 pm
I know why Mitt always thinks he is going to win…his team travels ahead of him and replaces all his opponents’ signs with his signs, so he thinks he’s the only candidate anybody likes…and he keeps writing checks to his team.
http://mikehuckabeepresident2008.blogspot.com/2008/01/romney-campaign-caught-stealing-mccain.html
AH HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAH!
January 8th, 2008 at 8:50 pm
This is not a good speech… poor guy. I feel really bad for Romney now. Maybe he doesn’t have a heart… I never though he had one before… surely he doesn’t look like a commander and chief though.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:51 pm
He is about to cry… like Clinton. The fact that Americans don’t believe in Mitt Romney… shows they do not believe he will strengthen America! Poor fellow.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:51 pm
Dude just sounded like Dean with his on to Nevada thing
January 8th, 2008 at 8:52 pm
I’ll say it again, if Huckabee is on the ticket as either President or V.P. in November, I will not be voting.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:52 pm
Nice to see how dignified the winners are.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:52 pm
Hill up by 6% with a quarter of the votes counted. Remarkable.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:53 pm
Kevin,
I’ll join the Ron Paul bandwagon.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:53 pm
Did her near tears help Clinton?
January 8th, 2008 at 8:53 pm
Well in all seriousness I have to say we must give credit to John Zogby. He’s been quite accurate so far in IA and NH.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:54 pm
On #100. Look Mitt Romney is a decent guy, no doubt about that. Quite frankly I think I’d get along better with him personally then McCain. But here’s the thing, he’s a cynical politican. He believes it’s just about changing your positions to match the electorate and then hammering on the issues. We can do better then that.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:54 pm
Barone says that the Dem primary is still not conclusive but some trends favoring Hill. Obama not winning the high-income liberal vote by as much as expected. Hillary doing fairly well in working class towns.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
A Romney/Thompson ticket would have been awesome. Instead it looks like we won’t have a conservative in the race in November. Very disappointing.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
HILLARY’S NUMBERS ARE SCARING ME!
January 8th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
jcutler: you do realize you are reciting Rudy Giuliani talking points right now, and the same talking points that Romney supporters have been mocking for months, at that.
As far as momentum, McCain and Huckabee have it, nobody else does. Rudy could get momentum back in Florida if McCain hasn’t wrapped the nomination up by then, which makes South Carolina the deciding state. And I actually think that McCain’s chances there are pretty good — McCain is popular with veterans, there are 2 southerners splitting the favorite son vote, and the confederate flag issue appears to be (thankfully) dead. If McCain can beat Huckabee in one southern state, Huck’s momentum is stopped cold. If Huck pulls it out in SC, then I think a lot of McCain’s current support could drift back to Rudy.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
“Even those who don’t believe in God believe in something bigger than themselves.”
Mitt, please STFU and do not assume what others believe.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
Barone says there is a “real possibility Hillary Clinton could win the NH primary”. Wow.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:56 pm
Hillary at 74 on intrade. Woohoo!! The democrats are going to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. McCain can take Hillary, no question.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:57 pm
Hill’s crying must have worked.
Unbelievable.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
How much is Obama panicking right now.
She will win the nomination fairly easily if she does win tonight.
That is great news for the GOP because Obama would have been much more difficult to beat.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
Mac by 10%. Hill by 4% withe 27% in.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:59 pm
Dskinner,
I’m not so sure Hil wins the nom easily. Obama can count on 50 percent of Democrats in SC being African American. And they already know he can win in almost exclusively white states.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:01 pm
Hill by 4 with 29% in.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:01 pm
Wow. This thing is not even close on the GOP side. Jmac 38, Mitt 28…
January 8th, 2008 at 9:01 pm
lookin good for RUDY!!!!!
January 8th, 2008 at 9:03 pm
Adam,
Hillary can skip SC and focus on the other states. It’s not the same as the GOP race in significance.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:04 pm
Mitt’s big mistake was trying to be the politician people wanted instead of who he actually was. It made him come across as if he thought people were stupid (joining the NRA just before he started running). He would have come across much better if he had come out as a successful business man that wasn’t as conservative as some would like.
McCain will take Michigan, even though I expect a lot more Ron Paul votes. The Dems are ticked about not being able to vote for who they want so a fair amount will probably just vote GOP to skew the numbers.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:04 pm
How did Dal LaMagna get above Joe Biden on Dems LOL
January 8th, 2008 at 9:04 pm
Tommy,
I’m not saying she’s out of it. I’m just saying that I don’t think Obama is yet either.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:04 pm
Hillary still has a big national lead and a much, much better organization. She will win NV, then lose SC. I’m not sure about Florida, but on 2/5 she will clean house and seal the deal.
Hillary is going to run positively while a 527 attacks Obama.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:05 pm
“Hillary is going to run positively while a 527 attacks Obama.”
That’s the only thing she can do. Sorta like George W did with McCain in 2000.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:07 pm
Adam,
Worked out pretty well for Bush.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:08 pm
Romney not out yet. Still a lot of race left.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
what in the world is going on in the democratic side? wasn’t obamamanis supposed to be taking over??
the media is so stupid. it was probably obama’s arrogance that turned voters off.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:10 pm
I think Mitt loses MI and SC, but wins NV.
So going into FL the results will be this.
Romney-win NV and WY, 2nd in IA, NH, MI and SC???????????
Huck-win IA and SC? 3rd in NH and MI
McCain-win in NH and MI, possible win in SC too?
McCain would get the edge in that outcome perhaps, but not a big edge. 2 wins for Mccain, possibly 3. 1 or 2 wins for Huck. 2 wins for Romney, with 2 or 3 2nds?
January 8th, 2008 at 9:10 pm
Dskinner,
That it did. It’s too bad though.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:10 pm
McCain is so old and tempermental. Seriously. who is going to win the gop nod? there is still no frontrunner. mccain is in front of the pack, but it is still anybody’s race.
incredible.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:10 pm
I think Romney will certainly lose Michigan, especially given the fact that he can’t claim a close 2nd, or that he won among Republicans. The only thing Mitt can tout is that he will lead in the delegate count.
Mitt should not stay in and try to compete in Nevada and SC unless by some miracle he wins Michigan. If he wants to continue in national politics his best hope is to endorse Thompson hopefully for a VP spot. That will give Thompson SC and probably the nomination.
That would give Romney at least 4 more years, hopefully 8, to work on his conservative credentials and on being consistent and likeable.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:11 pm
oh, there you go. ‘my friends’
January 8th, 2008 at 9:11 pm
Cindy McCain still hot.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
Why doesn’t McCain speak from his heart? Why is he reading it?
January 8th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
Romney wins NV and WY, and takes 2nd in IA, NH, probably MI, maybe SC.
Who is stronger than that going into FL?
McCain maybe but its not certain he will win SC.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
“I’m going to NH to tell the people the truth” - give me a break
January 8th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
no way McCain wins SC - that’s Huck country - he’s got that one in the bag
January 8th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
DaveG,
YES she is!
January 8th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
Has anyone on TV even mentioned that McCain won New Hampshire because Rudy tanked and most of his voters went to the famous old guy?
January 8th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
McCain’s ‘heartfelt’ words that he’s reading
January 8th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
Guys,
I like Romney as much as anyone on this site, but unless he wins Michigan he won’t be able to win the nomination, and his odds of winning Michigan are probably 1 in 20 at best. If he lost MI, his only shot would be if nobody won enough delegates and the convention was brokered. (The ticket would be formed before the convention so it wouldn’t be as exciting as you think) In that unlikely scenario, Mitt wouldn’t be chosen as the nominee or the VP.
All Romney can do after he loses Michigan is endorse Thompson for a spot as the VP. Thompson may not like such situation, but without a Romney endorsement and organization he wouldn’t be able to beat Huckabee in SC.
A Thompson/Romney ticket sounds great to me. It is exactly what I was hoping for back in May before Romney got my hopes up and before Thompson disappointed.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:16 pm
All these calls for Mitt to drop out make me laugh. If anyone should drop out, it is Thompson. Thompson has gotten less NH votes than the write-in candidates. Crazy Ron Paul has 8 times the number of votes as Thompson.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:20 pm
Thursday’s debate is going to be great entertainment if they let these guys go at each other again like the ones the past couple days.
Will Huck open fire on McCain, or does Huck recognize that McCain is toast when he’s in a traditional GOP contest vs. Huck’s GOTV supporters?
Will Mitt lash out at the McHuck duo?
Who’s going to deliver the death blow to Rudy? Fred?
The plot only thickens ‘my friends’
January 8th, 2008 at 9:21 pm
Why do I get the feeling that eight years from now illegals immigrants will be running this country?
January 8th, 2008 at 9:24 pm
again, as we head to Florida it will look like this.
Mitt:
Wyoming and Nevada and 3 silver medals
Huck:
Iowa and South Carolina and 1 silver medal
Mccain:
New Hampshire and Michigan and 2 silver medal
Thats assuming that Mitt wins NV with Mccain 2nd. And Huck wins SC with McCain 2nd.
Rudy might look like a genius. With the race in flux like that on Jan 17th, who challenges him. Florida might well be everyones firewall. All compete, and the top 2 fight on super tuesday.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:25 pm
McCain won’t be the nominee, neither will Huckabee.
Even though it sounds crazy, only Thompson would be able to win enough delegates to take it before the convention (unless Romney miraculously wins MI). He could only do that if Romney dropped out and endorsed him.
That is really, really unlikely, but if Romney stays in until Super Tuesday, it would make 4 candidates splitting delegates.
If you don’t believe me do the math. Look at which states are voting, how they award delegates and who is likely to do well in a 4-way race.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:27 pm
husky - that’s a good take on how things will very likely play out.
2008 turns conventional wisdom on its head - 2 tickets out of FL is it
January 8th, 2008 at 9:29 pm
Democrat race is getting tighter. Hillary only leads by a little over 2000 votes.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:37 pm
Sincere congratulations to all our McCainiacs here!
January 8th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
#150 husky: “Rudy might look like a genius.”
January 8th, 2008 at 9:49 pm
metro,
yea I know. I dont have the same level of vile for Rudy as you do for Romney. In fact, I have said recently that Rudy is my #2 solid choice behind Romney. Obama is a distant 3rd choice because I dislike Huck/Mccain so much.
But do you agree with my assessment in 150? If so, who is stronger against Rudy come Jan 17th. Your gut might say McCain for winning tonight and also likely winning MI, but consider too that Huck and Mitt (SC and NV) will likely win on Jan 17th, with McCain getting 2nd in each I would think.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:53 pm
husky, don’t have time to think about it just yet.
January 8th, 2008 at 9:57 pm
thats the thing Metro, this race is so in flux still. Everyone makes hay about IA and NH. We are expected to draw conclusions based on these 1st 2 states. Why?
I think that Mitt will see a similar finish in MI as he did tonight and be down and out for about 48 hrs. He will win NV, Huck will beat McCain in SC, and Mccain will be deflated some from losing both. Each will have 2 wins going into Florida.
Is Florida an open primary too?
January 8th, 2008 at 9:58 pm
On the Dem side.
Obama wins narrowly tonight, and wins SC.
Hillary wins MI and NV
Florida is the fireline for everyone in the race right now. Thats what I predict. Am I wrong?
January 8th, 2008 at 10:30 pm
Huckabee-McCain ‘08!!!
Ding, Dong, the Mitt is dead… wicked ole Mitt, Mitt is dead…
January 8th, 2008 at 10:57 pm
Huck fan-
Tell me how Huck or McCain has more mojo than Romney if…
Romney wins WY and NV, and gets 2nd in IA, NH, and MI
Huck wins IA and SC, and get 3rd in NH and MI
McCain wins NH and MI, and gets 2nd in SC
Tell me how any of them have a stronger case for the White House than the other. This thing will go to Florida and Super Tuesday. Tonight was the beginning, not the end for anyone. Anybody could be a one trick pony like McCain and Huck, Romney fights in every state, and its far from over.
January 9th, 2008 at 12:47 am
Romney has the majority of republicans against him everywhere he goes. He’s a dishonest liberal wolf in sheep’s clothing and people see through him everywhere he goes. People don’t trust him. He claims he’s pro choice for 20 years and then changes his values to fit poll numbers in Iowa. If he’s willing to change on one issue why not all of them? Which one’s is he going to stick to his convictions on? Does the platform he runs on mean anything if you can’t trust the man it’s coming from? His state is 5th highest in the nation for state income tax burden, not a very conservative policy. Huckabee’s Arkansas is 48th lowest in the state. Tonight was just the icing on the cake, the state right next door that’s as liberal as he is won’t even give him the gold and they hand the bronze to a southern conservative, Huck.
The moral majority(evangelicals as the media likes to call them) are tired of the phony East-Coast liberals disguised as conservatives that get pushed on to us every election. We’ve dealt with Bush for the last 8 years, who wanted amnesty and rolled over and died on all the domestic issues giving them to democrats(they should love him), and the tax and spend republican congress who passes the largest medicaid increase in history and goes 9 trillion dollars in debt. They don’t care to fix the abortion, gay-marriage, religious freedom and religious persecution, and the lack of the right to pray as an individual in our schools and public buildings, or any of the other issues that matter to the christian conservatives. Every election the establishment candidate comes and tells us they care, but they don’t want to fix the issues because they won’t be able to fleece us into the polls every election. It’s the same thing with Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton on the other side of the aisle. They don’t really want to fix the issues that matter to blacks or the gravy train will stop a rollin. The truth is the establishment republicans though they hate us, they can’t win an election without us, we don’t need you and we’ve realized this. We’re tired of having to pick between the lesser of two evils and end up taking it in the backside. This time you guys can compromise and pick the lesser of two evils, Huckabee or Hillary.
Huckabee leads in the latest Michigan polls and is a sure win in South Carolina, Kentucky, Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and just about other bible belt conservative state. He is also 2nd in Florida and California, which is the big prize. He’s also had to clean up the Clinton’s mess in Arkansas and can beat them in an election, not to mention he carries a huge black, southern-baptist vote in states like Mississippi and Louisiana which traditionally vote for Democrats.
Good luck stopping the Huckaboom!!!
January 9th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
yeesss john!!! Exactly!!!!! Huck-a-boooooooooooooooooooom!!!