GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Romney: This is going to be a very close race. In four recent polls, Romney has led in one of them by 3 points. He has trailed in the other three polls by 1, 4, and 5. However, most of these polls were taken prior to the debate Sunday night where Romney had a strong performance. Most people expected McCain to steadily gain after Romney’s defeat in Iowa just as they expected Obama to gain against Clinton. Obama has gained against Clinton, but McCain, though still leading in most polls, has actually lost ground to Romney. I doubt more than 3 points will separate either candidate tomorrow night. Neither candidate will be out of the race because of these results.
McCain: He was considered washed up six months ago. He didn’t have two dimes to rub together. Win or lose tomorrow night, he has made an amazing comeback. I think he did come across a bit bullyish in the debates this weekend, and it has been brought to the attention of the voters that he opposed the Bush tax cuts. Like Romney, whether he wins or loses, he is not out of the race.
Huckabee: His Iowa win will be enough to earn him third in New Hampshire, but he is not conservative enough on fiscal issues for the New Hampshire electorate. There are three tickets out of New Hampshire, and he gets one of them.
Paul: I overpredicted him in Iowa, so I won’t go overboard, but I do think he has a following. He earned 10% in the CNN poll, and I will give him two points extra since his type of voters are likely to be underpolled.
Giuliani: He is actually slightly behind Paul in two of the four recent polls, and I think he’ll finish just barely behind him tomorrow as well. It will be a great embarassment to Giuliani to finish behind Paul since he often makes fun of him and has a different philosophy on foreign policy than Paul (as do all major GOP candidates). If my predictions hold, it will raise the question of whether Fox News should have invited Paul and excluded Giuliani and Thompson.
Thompson: I have to admit. This guy kind of grows on me. I liked him in both of the debates this weekend. However, there seems to be little interest in him in New Hampshire. I will give him 4%, and even that is generous.
Hunter: Great guy as well, but barely registering in the polls. He does have the endorsement of former Senator Bob Smith.
Final Prediction:
Obama: It looks like tomorrow night will be a happy one for him. He does inspire an awful lot of people. Don’t ask me why though. I can’t watch a single commercial by him and figure out what he actually plans to do. He just talks about how he is in favor of hope and change and unifying the country. Even though I disagree with Hillary Clinton on most things, she at least is more specific about what she wants to do if she becomes President. Don’t ask me to figure out what goes on in Democrats’ heads though. They seem to prefer him over her, and he will win handily tomorrow.
Clinton: Tomorrow will be a rough day for her. It has to hurt when she has been ahead all year and loses it at the end. It all started when she got in that tangle over drivers’ licenses for illegal aliens. People are not buying her “35 years of experience” argument. I still can’t decide whether her tears today were genuine or contrived as a way to soften her image. I disagree with her on most issues and would never vote for her, but I have to say I actually like her better today than I did a year ago and much better than I did when she was first lady. I don’t think she is the dragon lady most Republicans make her out to be. She is just wrong on the issues. However, Democrats are rejecting her. She can still come back though after New Hampshire. Her campaign resembles Bob Dole’s campaign of 1996. She does best in states where she either doesn’t campaign or no one campaigns against her. She leads by over 20 points in Nevada and Florida. With this compressed primary schedule, she may be able to limp to the nomination because of the big states and the superdelegates, but her chances of winning tomorrow are next to zero.
Edwards: He just doesn’t connect here. He came in fourth here in 2004. He’ll come in third by default tomorrow, but his days in this race are numbered.
Richardson, Kucinich, and Gravel: Irrelevant.
Final Prediction:
UPDATE: The night is starting off very bad for Hillary. She actually got zero votes in Dixville Notch, which votes at midnight. Here are the results:
January 8th, 2008 at 1:35 am
Interesting article in LA Times.
Chamber of Commerce vows to punish anti-business candidates:
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-chamber8jan08,0,4301350.story?coll=la-home-center
WASHINGON — Alarmed at the increasingly populist tone of the 2008 political campaign, the president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is set to issue a fiery promise to spend millions of dollars to defeat candidates deemed to be anti-business.
“We plan to build a grass-roots business organization so strong that when it bites you in the butt, you bleed,� chamber President Tom Donohue said.
If they spend the$60 million as indicated, they may want to spend it quickly in support of Romney. What happens if Huckabee wins the Rep Nomination. Then who do they spend the money on in Generals?
January 8th, 2008 at 1:39 am
McCain WON DIXVILLE by twice as many votes as Romney. He didn’t sell enough used cars here.
January 8th, 2008 at 1:40 am
“I can’t watch a single commercial by him and figure out what he actually plans to do”
Oh, give me a break. Like you can figure out what any candidate will actually do from watching an ad?
Why not do the obvious? Go visit his website and read the (very) extensive list of issue positions and proposals.
January 8th, 2008 at 1:50 am
Amazingly, intrade has this at 83 to 13. That’s crazy in my mind. More like 60-40.
January 8th, 2008 at 1:52 am
A gutsy call for a 1-point victory for Romney. I have been waiting for Metro’s prediction for New hampshire. Anything you want to share, Metro. I see Giuliani coming in 4th, but close to Huckabee.
Mitt- 34%
McCain- 31%
Huckabee- 13%
Giuliani- 11%
Paul- 7%
Hunter/Others- 4%
January 8th, 2008 at 1:55 am
Still tinkering with my spreadsheet……
January 8th, 2008 at 1:55 am
I don’t know if I agree that McCain can win if he loses. He’s has totally banked everything on him losing New Hampshire. He needs momentum to win MI or SC, if he loses New Hampshire after saying he was going to win its going to really hurt.
Romney also will be severely wounded if he loses NH, and is in big trouble. Allthough considering Romney’s that Romney does have stronger places elsewhere I would say he probably wouldn’t be dead. Howevever he will have been severely wounded. McCain losing is getting shot in the head, Romney losing is getting shot in the chest. This sort of a death match between Romney and McCain.
January 8th, 2008 at 1:56 am
Greg, what about Fred? He surely rates something apart from “Hunter/Others.”
January 8th, 2008 at 1:57 am
You know what occurred to me, as a Vietnam vet, how is McCain so buddy, buddy with Kerry? Wouldn’t you think that McCain would HATE Kerry for what he did after the war?
January 8th, 2008 at 1:58 am
Does anybody have any insight into McCains GOTV? Do they expect a strong turnout? Do they have a strong organization?
January 8th, 2008 at 2:01 am
McCain could never hate Kerry they’re both liberals, of course they love each other.
January 8th, 2008 at 2:02 am
bjalder26,
Yes i do and its very strong, McCain will win by at least 15 points today folks, mark it down Metro!
January 8th, 2008 at 2:03 am
Ed in NH, that’s not gonna happen.
January 8th, 2008 at 2:03 am
John
Well if you call a 85% Conservative voting record in the Senate then…….ok
January 8th, 2008 at 2:05 am
bjalder26 -
McCain’s team didn’t sell as many used cars as Romney… but the McCain camp is still expecting a strong finish in NH. Good luck to your favorite used carsalesman.
http://www.politicalpressure.wordpress.com
January 8th, 2008 at 2:05 am
I think the more interesting numbers is the place the Hart place where Huck got 5 votes tonight. That is the part of the state where they lost a lot of jobs. Can be a tell tell sign that Huckabee’s populism could be playing well up in Northern NH.
January 8th, 2008 at 2:05 am
Well i’ll be on here tonight to rub it in yall’s face, its going to happen, trust me, i know my state and i know my voters, we are very last minute and they will end up pulling the trigger for McCain in large numbers. And the Indy vote i think will be slightly for Obama 51 to 49, alot of Indy’s will be voting for McCain, Trust me on this one guys.
January 8th, 2008 at 2:05 am
You’re right, Metro. I should have at least listed Fred’s name. I think he get half of my 4% group. That’s right, I expect him to only get 2%.
January 8th, 2008 at 2:07 am
If Romney loses New Hampshire, his campaign is over.
January 8th, 2008 at 2:07 am
I think people are moving from McCain to Romney in a limited sense, but in a bigger sense, I truly believe that the undecideds will come down in Mitt’s favor. It’s a close race, but I think that puts himm over the top.
January 8th, 2008 at 2:08 am
Paul,
What was the final tally there where Huck got 5 Votes?
January 8th, 2008 at 2:08 am
Ed
Are you forgetting that he opposed the Bush tax cuts?
January 8th, 2008 at 2:11 am
Of all the polls out there, I like the Rasmussen rolling poll for NH because it has a large sample (1,100 voters). It showed McCain up by 5% last week, and then today it showed it at 32%-31% for McCain, and it did not factor in any Sunday’s debate performance, which is good for a 1% or 2% boost for Romney. It puts independent participation at 27%, down from 32% last week. They see a shift in independents to Obama, and some to Ron Paul as well.
January 8th, 2008 at 2:14 am
Undecideds will fall to Romney if he bought them. If he sold a used car to them they will realize they got a raw deal and go some place else. Where that is remains to be seen. http://www.politicalpressure.wordpress.com
January 8th, 2008 at 2:15 am
When you go to the polls tomorrow for Romney… think of the last sly salesman who ripped you off and left you without your warranty. That’s how Romney will feel when he leaves us for dead.
January 8th, 2008 at 2:18 am
OK, here is the Official MetroRepublican Prediction(tm) for New Hampshire:
JMac 32
Mitt 32
Huck 12.6
Paul 12
Rudy 8.3
Fred 1.8
That’s right, I’m predicting Mitt, yes, MITT (yes, me, MetroRepublican) does much better than the polls, Intrade, yes, INTRADE (yes, me MetroRepublican), and the Rombot-heavy members of this site (based on your predictions, which I have entered into a spreadsheet), expect.
The polls showed a late shift towards Mitt if you look at the ones that started with Saturday exclude the ones that included Friday. Also, Mitt was totally in command at the debates, and Sunday’s debate has not been reflected in these polls. Also, Mitt had a fantastic day, using fantastic sound bites against McCain. Also, his GOTV *did* work in Iowa and it will in NH. Fox replaying that focus group helps. I get the sense Republicans are really coalescing around Mitt in the last 24 hours. Although Obama’s big lead could bring some independents back to the GOP race (along with stories of a tightening GOP race), I think a lot of independents who like McCain would rather cast a vote for Obama to feel like they are part of the Obamamania and part of history.
By contrast, the only thing going for McCain today was the skirmish with the Iranian Navy, and I think it got buried in NH primary news. Well, the fact that the GOP race is now much tighter is going in his favor, too, and it’s hard to predict how big a factor that will be.
And, I’m also predicting Rudy does worse than most people on this site.
Gotta keep this kind of objectivity if I have any hope of being #1 again! I’d be very happy just to be in the top 10%. So much going on in such a short time, it’s hard for pollsters or any of us to figure out, and whoever gets #1 this time will have a bit of luck on their side.
January 8th, 2008 at 2:22 am
Republicans:
McCain - 33
Romney - 30
Huckabee - 14
Paul - 11
Giuliani - 9
Thompson - 2
Hunter - 1
Democrats:
Obama - 43
Clinton - 31
Edwards - 19
Richardson - 5
Kucinich - 2
January 8th, 2008 at 2:23 am
When you go to the polls tomorrow for Romney, think of the last time you saw Grumpy Old Men; remember how sequels are never as good ‘cuz the crusty old McCain will be the only one laughing at his humor.
January 8th, 2008 at 2:24 am
Jerry
That was a good one!
January 8th, 2008 at 2:24 am
On #26 - I’m not sure how many indies *know* the race has tightened the last few days. In fact, I would guess very few. But they probably do know that Obama is running away with the Dem primary.
Also, is it just me or has Romney kind of controlled the media cycle since Iowa? It seems he’s hit McCain on this “change” argument (tied into electability) and for whatever reason we haven’t heard much really from McCain about foreign policy.
If McCain loses, their campaign will realize they went into “prevent defense” mode a little too soon.
January 8th, 2008 at 2:25 am
6 McCain, 5 Huck, 4 Paul, 1 Romney
Obama 9, Hillary 3, Edwards 1.
January 8th, 2008 at 2:25 am
#26 - Much respect Metro! Much respect!
January 8th, 2008 at 2:30 am
Paul what do those votes consist of?
January 8th, 2008 at 2:31 am
Anyone else see that Mitt won the kids election by a landslide?? The kids have predicted the last 3 cycles perfectly for both Dems and Reps!
January 8th, 2008 at 2:33 am
On #34 - not surprising in that McCain does best amongst the 65+ crowd whose kids are well..not kids.
January 8th, 2008 at 2:33 am
First Dick Morris, now Metro. If they think Romney will do well, then Romney wins it easy, maybe by 30%!
January 8th, 2008 at 2:36 am
GOP:
Mitt- 33
McCain - 31
Giuliani - 11
Huck - 9
Paul - 8
Fred - 7
Hunter - 1
Dems:
Obama - 35
Hillary - 31
Edwards - 25
Richardson - 8
Kucinich - 1
January 8th, 2008 at 2:40 am
My guess: Huck will pull 20% support
McCain - 32
Romney - 25
Paul - 10
Rudy - 9
Fred - 4
January 8th, 2008 at 2:46 am
GOP
McCain 32
Romney 28
Huckabee 14
Paul 12
Giuliani 10
Thompson 4
DEM
Obama 37
Clinton 30
Edwards 25
January 8th, 2008 at 2:46 am
Adam, I saw where you put those in an earlier thread today and already have them in the spreadsheet.
January 8th, 2008 at 2:48 am
Metro,
Thanks. I wasn’t sure
January 8th, 2008 at 2:50 am
Metro…who do you think Sanford and Jeb wil endorse? If anyone, when? And do you think it will help? If so, how much?
January 8th, 2008 at 2:55 am
It depends on what happens in the next few states.
Sanford I think will abstain to keep himself on VP short lists. Jeb was rumored to like Romney, so I would not be surprised to see that. However, I saw him interviewed a couple months ago about each candidate, and he said really glowing things about Rudy and a lukewarm thing about Romney, which surprised me.
I think both endorsements would have a fair bit of clout.
January 8th, 2008 at 2:55 am
When… within a week of their own state voting (if Sanford does at all).
January 8th, 2008 at 2:57 am
Anyone know when polls close and how quickly we’ll see the results?
January 8th, 2008 at 2:58 am
i heard 7pm eastern, but not sure if correct
January 8th, 2008 at 2:59 am
“Jeb was rumored to like Romney”
True, and a lot of Romney’s staff came from Jeb’s staff, but I think they’ve had a falling out of sorts over the illegal immigration issue. Who knows though.
I think Jeb’s going to be looking to run in 8 years (4 if McCain is elected), so he will be carefull about who he endorses.
January 8th, 2008 at 3:01 am
I bet articles are already mostly written about Romney and McCain winning, and they’re just waiting for the results.
January 8th, 2008 at 3:07 am
What was the huff about?
January 8th, 2008 at 3:07 am
Oh yeah, I forgot about the huff over immigration.
January 8th, 2008 at 3:10 am
I still have a few hundred bucks left at Intrade, so I bought a bunch of Mitt-NH contracts at 15. I have sell orders in the 30’s, where I’m hoping the market will go when exit polls begin to leak. Should more than double my money in half a day.
Feels odd to be buying Mitt. Don’t anybody go thinking I’ve stopped hating the guy!
January 8th, 2008 at 3:16 am
Metro,
We know that you hate Mitt, but hey I don’t think Mitt would blame you. Mitt is the ultimate entrepreneur.
January 8th, 2008 at 3:36 am
If Mitt wins the nomination we will all be better off financially.
January 8th, 2008 at 3:37 am
I meant if Mitt becomes POTUS.
January 8th, 2008 at 4:13 am
Metro,
Doesn’t it make you feel dirty to buy Mitt NH contracts?
January 8th, 2008 at 4:30 am
We already made our predictions on another thread. I stand by mine, with Mitt at 35% and McCain at 30%. Mitt’s organization made 100,000 calls today, and they won’t be sleeping tomorrow. Will it make a difference? Net/net, at least 3 or 4 per cent. Word is getting out that McCain is too old to be a vigorous president….imagine that! Somebody noticed that being a geriatric cancer patient might not be conducive to running the largest organization in the world effectively. Next thing you know, somebody will actually claim that the fact McCain has never run a government before raises questions about whether he should be trusted to run the largest government in the world. It’s not nice to kick a very old man when he’s down.
January 8th, 2008 at 4:32 am
bjalder26,
Jeb and Mitt have not had a falling out….Jeb doesn’t think it’s appropriate for him to endorse, given that his brother is POTUS. If he were to endorse, it would be Mitt.
January 8th, 2008 at 4:33 am
Metro,
Here’s a suggestion for you. When you are computing who is closest to the actual results in NH, it might be interesting to see the average from regular commenters on this site. When I went to school for meteorology and the class made a forecast for high or low temperatures or rainfall it always seemed to work out that consensus forecasting was pretty darn close to what actually occurred. It would be interesting to see how well we all do as a whole. I suspect that the predictions will be more biased in favor of Romney because R42008 has more Romney supporters than is representative of the GOP.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:02 am
The fact that Mitt stands a chance is impressive - McCain handily won NH in the last contested gop primary there.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:26 am
Metro,
Thank you for proving my point about Intrade.
January 8th, 2008 at 8:30 am
#57, I hope you’re right, but may I ask how you know that? Is it just your gut feel, or what?
January 8th, 2008 at 10:07 am
mccain edges romney by a few points. ron paul and huck fight for third, giuliani comes in 5th this time, fred 6th.
mccain 33
romney 30
huckabee 13
ron paul 11
giuliani 10
fred 3
Obama wins by 10 or more points.
January 8th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
Adam, I did that last time, you must’ve missed it, and will do it again.
Irish Right, “most accurate” does not mean “infallible.”
January 8th, 2008 at 1:47 pm
Watching the early states is very exciting for me, but I truly cannot get too excited about a personality at the moment. I am very focused on what I want to get accomplished with this election, and I will vote for the person or party that gets me there. I want my next President to lead the nation to energy independence. We need a national energy policy that emphasizes independence from OPEC. We need to put everything on the table to accomplish this. (Sorry, carribou and SUV’s). We need to regain the initiative in the so called “War on Terror”. My ideal candidate would declare victory and withdraw from Iraq and shift our focus on the Horn of Africa. I also want a President that is going to fix the immigration mess. I want our laws enforced. I don’t want a fence in the middle of the desert. Dessicated jackrabbits are unsightly. I can tell you from my personal experience that the deserts of New Mexico and Arizona are deterrent enough. If they couldn’t find work when they got here, or housing or food stamps, I’m thinking they probably wouldn’t stay. So beef up yhe border patrol if you must, but don’t overlook BICE. Let’s keep track of those guys here who have entered on Visas. Because they are 40% of the problem. And bust those employers that are hiring illegal aliens. We need to fix Social Security. I support the idea of allowing citizens to have a greater say in the diversification of their retirement insurance. I want my President to have a line item veto. Congress has lost their sense of what is bearable by the American people. I am for the “fair tax” and a balanced budget. The “tax the rich” craze has gotten out of hand. Aren’t we all rich, comparatively speaking? Obviously, the progressive tax idea has shifted until the government justifys progressively taxing more and more and spending every bit of it. I’d like the size of the federal government to shrink. I’d get rid of the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Education to start with.