GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Rossman Group Michigan GOP Primary
- Mike Huckabee 23%
- Mitt Romney 22%
- John McCain 18%
- Rudy Giuliani 8%
- Fred Thompson 4%
- Ron Paul 3%
This survey was part of the Rossman Group/MIRS/Denno-Noor Quarterly Survey of the Michigan electorate. Three hundred Republican Presidential Primary Voters – were surveyed between January 6 and January 7, and the participation was stratified based on census data and past voter behavior. A screen was employed to include only those participants who said they intended on voting, either at the polls or by absentee ballot, in the January 15, 2008 Presidential Primary Election. The margin of error for these ballot tests is plus/minus 5.8 percent.
I’ve never heard of this polling firm before, so take this result with a grain of salt.
January 9th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
I wonder who the Reagan Democrats vote for in this contest. I’d not be surprised if Democrats make up 10% of the Republican primary vote.
January 9th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
Also take it with a grain of salt because it doesnt show MCcain leading,
- right LJ?
January 9th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
Intrade Michigan:
JMac 60.0
Huck 27.0
Mitt 13.5
Homestate boy’s gonna take 3rd.
And then he will drop out if he wants a chance at 2012, or his name will be mud, in part for sabotaging the nomination, and in part for detroying a family fortune.
January 9th, 2008 at 6:00 pm
The difference between this poll and the Strategic Vision poll is the number of undecideds. The Rossman poll has a lot more undecideds than the Strategic Vision poll. This probably means the higher numbers for McCain are due to soft McCain supporters. The polls are pre-New Hampshire, so that support has probably hardened some. Expect McCain to win in Michigan.
January 9th, 2008 at 6:01 pm
I would be cautious about giving this poll any weight.
January 9th, 2008 at 6:02 pm
I don’t trust this poll. It has Rudy leading Paul by far too much.
January 9th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Since Huckabee will presumably be preoccupied with South Carolina, the question is what happens to his votes? Mitt will get to find out what he can do in a state that he concentrates on exclusively, as opposed to fighting a 2-front war. It took the Germans losses in 2 world wars to figure out that that doesn’t work. I give Mitt credit for being a little quicker on the uptake than that. Michigan will be determinative.
January 9th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Ya know, Metro, you’ve been so concerned about Mitt’s crumbling fortune for so long, if I didn’t know better, I’d say you thought you were in his will.
January 9th, 2008 at 6:05 pm
Irish right (#8) thats fantastic!
However, it is very nice that all those who dislike Mitt as the potential nominee are good enough to care about him & his fortune. Very decent of them…
January 9th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
I’ve gotta say, I think Huckabee is the candidate in the best position at the moment.
He won Iowa convincingly.
Then he came 3rd in NH. He was meant to be “an evangelical southern baptist preacher who might do well in religious Iowa, but was a loser in secular fiscal New Hampshire.”
And yet despite this storyline, he came a solid 3rd. Comfortably clear of:
a) America’s mayor, who has harped on about his fiscal conservatism for months
b) A libertarian who has built a huge fundraising machine & was ideally built for New Hampshires anti-war, fiscal conservative rump.
If he focuses on South Carolina, there’s a strong probability that he wins it comfortably from a fading Mitt, a go-nowhere Fred & a non-southern JMac. Given the importance of SC in the media storyline, he could well be unbeatable from there. Certainly, it would be down to him & Rudy in Florida.
Is he going to compete in Michigan? Or just focus on SC and come 3rd in Michigan without even trying…?
January 9th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
So where is this Huck-a-bust I have been hearing about?
http://www.democratsforhuckabee.blogspot.com
January 9th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
This from the Romney campaign -
MEMORANDUM
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: ALEX GAGE
STRATEGIST, ROMNEY FOR PRESIDENT
DATE: JANUARY 9, 2008
RE: THE PATH TO VICTORY
As we move forward in the primary process, I thought I would take this opportunity to update you
on Gov. Romney’s path to victory in the upcoming primaries. After a strong second place finish in
Iowa and a tremendous rally to finish in second place in New Hampshire, Gov. Romney has won
the most votes of any Republican candidate. The Republican race remains wide open. Here’s
why:
Gov. Romney’s message of change generated momentum in New Hampshire. As recently
as Saturday, Gov. Romney trailed in New Hampshire by as many as 14 points (ARG Poll, 1/4-
1/5). To come back from a double-digit deficit to finish just 5 points behind John McCain is a
tremendous achievement, made possible by Gov. Romney’s debate performance on Sunday night.
Frank Luntz of Fox News declared that “Mitt Romney consistently got the best responses of the
entire evening� from a focus group of Republican primary voters. And it wasn’t just Sunday’s
debate—Gov. Romney’s emphasis on retail politics and our superior grassroots organization also
tipped the scales back towards us in the final hours. Gov. Romney closed a great deal of ground
very quickly and we expect to continue this strong momentum into Michigan.
Gov. Romney is the best candidate in the Republican field to match up against the
Democrats in the fall. Regardless of who wins the Democratic nomination, the contest between
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama has refocused the Republican race. Gov. Romney is the
Republican candidate who can stand and successfully debate the Democrats about the future of
this nation. Republicans know that we must wage a campaign that offers a choice between two
clearly different visions for the future, not a choice between the past and the future.
No other candidate is competitive in as many states as Gov. Romney. Gov. Romney is
the only candidate who is competitive in every state before February 5: building on our victory in
Wyoming and strong finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, we head to the remaining states with
strong organizations in place. Note that Gov. Romney actually beat John McCain among
Republicans yesterday (35%-34%) and most of the upcoming primaries and caucuses
attract an electorate far more Republican than New Hampshire’s. Yesterday’s results also
show that most independents will choose the Democratic ballot in open primary states.
We are taking nothing for granted in any state. But being competitive in every contest over the
next month means Gov. Romney will continue to be in the headlines, will continue to pick up
delegates, and will continue to build a strong grassroots organization nationwide while other
candidates sit on the sidelines. Gov. Romney will also benefit from a base built by our paid and
earned media over the past month—no other candidate is in as solid a position in all the
remaining January states. Also it is important to remember that the delegate-rich states of
Michigan and Florida are winner-take-all by congressional district—a format that will benefit
campaigns that have organized their field efforts to focus on key districts.
Bottom line: Gov. Romney has a clear path to victory moving forward. We are prepared
to fight and win in the key states throughout the rest of January – putting us in position to win
both Super Tuesday and the nomination.
January 9th, 2008 at 6:13 pm
Romneys campaign also touts that Romney actually won amongst Republican voters
January 9th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
Huckabee is running ads in Michigan and going there on Friday. He’s not ceding it to Romney or McCain, just focusing more on South Carolina.
January 9th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
Do people know what Huck’s Michigan strategy is? I was reading an interesting TIME article on Mitt Romney today that said about Michigan: “it’s a state where Mike Huckabee will again find a strong base of Evangelical support” & that Huck is advertising there.
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1701633,00.html
To my mind, if he pretends to ignore it, and focuses on South Carolina, then he increases the chances of winning SC. And if he can get 3rd (& a few delegates) in Michigan then so much the better.
Its a wide open race!
January 9th, 2008 at 6:18 pm
I find it hilarious they cite an ARG poll. This is transparent spin.
January 9th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
JayPe,
I think Huck will get 2nd in MI.
January 9th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
SC is well known for stopping insurgent candidates and giving unstoppable momentum to the establishment candidate (1988 VP Bush, 2000 Gov Bush).
One could argue that the purpose of SC is to stop Huckabee. But that will be difficult. The establishment won’t swing behind McCain - he’s annoyed to many of them over the years. They won’t swing behind Mitt Romney - he hasn’t built up the momentum that was hoped for. They won’t swing behind Thompson. Rudy isn’t competing.
The “establishment vote” may be so fractured that Huckabee wins it. That would be very tough for the GOP establishment…
January 9th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
What i really want to see is a Massachusetts poll. How killer would it be if Mitt was still in the race during the Massachusetts caucus. There’s not a snowball’s chance in heck Mitt wins the only state that ever elected him to do anything.
January 9th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
Oh, and did you noticed the “tremendous rally to finish in second place in New Hampshire”? That’s the part I find particularly amusing.
January 9th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
Looks like Mitt is focusing everything on Michigan:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-01-09-romney-ads_N.htm
He’s pulled advertising in SC & Florida in order to focus on Michigan. Looks like its become his firewall folks!
January 9th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
I think the Romney fundraiser finished around ~5M.
January 9th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
Sampo,
I get a kick out of the fact that no Massachusetts presidential contender has EVER lost New Hampshire. Not once.
Even Henry Cabot Lodge won in NH!
January 9th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
Metro (#3) Mitt Romney is not going to run in 2012. By that time he’ll be 6 years out of elective office, having run for President once before. Not a hope.
Hius only chance is to win elective office (Governor, Senator) and run again in 2016. But even that strategy has problems. Like, what elective office does he win? MA won’t take him back with open arms, and it would look a bit weird to suddenly run for Michigan Governor.
January 9th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
Breaking News regarding Mike Huckabee:
I emailed the creator of Victims Voice 527 about the airing of the commercial he made with the mother of Wayne Dumond’s victim, and this is the response I received:
“I’ve gotten enough to begin airing the commercial tomorrow night. It is going to start running right before the Presidential debate.”
He said he was buying many runs, and every time he received enough in funds, he purchased a new run. If you would like to donate to his noble cause to help this victim have her voice heard, please visit here:
http://www.victimsvoice527.com/
January 9th, 2008 at 6:28 pm
I don’t know how much stock I would put into this poll. Watch out for Fred, I hear from people on the ground in both Michigan and SC are saying that he is building up some moFredtum. SC could very well be Fred’s bulwark and from there he could dominate the Southern States.
January 9th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
OK, ajay, let’s play it your way.
Irish Right: Governor Romney, here’s that strategy memo you wanted put out. I thought I’d do something a little different this time. Instead of quoting articles ans polls that show us in a favorable light, I thought I’d show us as negatively as possible. What do you think.
Gov. Romney (channeling his inner Trump}: Irish, your’re fired.
January 9th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
Patrick, not quite. Ted Kennedy lost to Jimmy Carter in New Hampshire in 1980…
January 9th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
On #27. Irish - you really didn’t refute my point that this letter is just spin.
Romney did not win amongst Republicans according to most exit polls. the honest answer is we can’t say with 100% certainty, but mccain probably won them.
January 9th, 2008 at 6:46 pm
JayPe,
You’re right. I stand corrected on that - but Carter was a sitting president.
January 9th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
Ajay, the news that a campaign memo released after a primary is “just spin” is astounding.
Stop the Presses! We have a major news announcement!
January 9th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
Sounds like all of you HuckaMcCainiacs are scared to death of Romney.
If he is finished why is he all you can talk about?
Only desperate people would make up all these lies about a candadate that you say has no chance.
This is quite entertaining watching you all squirm.
January 9th, 2008 at 7:41 pm
Hucks big BOUNCE tool him all the way down to 11% in NH. Was that up, down or sideways?
And my good friends it will be fun to see if the Huck and McCain campaigns will now go after each other in SC.
Or is the back room deal done? who will be pres. and VP? are they going to flip a coin?
January 9th, 2008 at 8:46 pm
NEVADA: McClatchy-MSNBC 12/3-5/07
Giuliani 25%
Huckabee 17%
McCain 7%
Paul 5%
Romney 20%
Thompson 9%
January 9th, 2008 at 9:32 pm
It’s been reported that Mitt Romney brought in over 5 MILLION DOLLARS TODAY, Jan. 9th, in Boston with fund raisers and supporters rallying behind him. I know I did. Even McCain’s home state of Arizona donated around $146,000.00 to Romney’s campaign. There must be some substance behind all that support—hmmmm, maybe it’s because Mitt has an unbeatable resume and platform that is comprehensive, intelligent and not just 1″ deep like McCain and Huckabee’s.
Do you know why McCain and Huckabee can’t illicit that kind of support? It’s because McCain’s support comes from Democrats/Indi’s who vote against Romney. Voters aren’t impassioned for a candidate that will be a lame duck president (80 years old in his second term!!). Huckabee has Evangelical pastors compelling their congregations to vote with their religion, and not with their heads. Scary, very scary….. It sounds like now the Demo/Indies are picking up on him also.
If Mitt doesn’t win the Demo/Indie’s vote in Michigan next week—it won’t concern me at all. With the kind of support (and true conservative platform) like he received today….Mitt can outlast Huckabee and McCain to the end..
Go to a TRUE CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN WEBSITE - rushlimbaugh.com and see what he says about liberal candidates McCain and Huckabee and the state of the race. It’s just beginning…..
January 9th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
“Sounds like all of you HuckaMcCainiacs are scared to death of Romney.
If he is finished why is he all you can talk about?”
It’s called “reveling.”
January 9th, 2008 at 9:55 pm
Non-Hillary dems in Michigan will vote on the republican ballot for Huckabee or McCain. They can’t vote for Obama, Edwards, or (probably) Richardson. Even those that are for Hillary know that she will win and so why wouldn’t they vote for the candidate they want to compete against the most (who is also viable)? If Mitt pulls out a win in Michigan it will be enormous. If he gets second, he will still be in good shape. The candidate with the most delegates at the convention wins, and the way it looks now there are not going to be a lot of early dropouts as in years past. That’s a good thing–3 states shouldn’t decide the candidate.
January 9th, 2008 at 11:51 pm
Thanks Coco…finally an intelligent, true comment regarding Romney!! That’s why Rush, Hannity and
all the leading conservatives are getting behind Romney now…with over 5 million dollars in donations raised in one day…he is far from over. He’s the only candidate with ability, intelligence and…above all…integrity in the running!!
January 10th, 2008 at 8:51 am
He is the only candidate with ability. But he needs to evoke more passion. Nobody argues that he would run the country better than any other candidate, if for no other reason than his work ethic. But that does not bring out the vote. Obama says absolutely nothing of substance in his speeches and is causing a frenzy. Romney details his plan and is seen as an automaton. Obviously he needs to speak to people’s emotions.
Romney will never run again. He is running because he thinks he can do some good. If he is not elected he will move on to something else. If he does not win the WH, we will see him contribute in some other capacity and he will do it well. Just as they call Mitt’s father a pioneer of volunteerism in the U.S. Mitt will likely follow suit. After all, that was the key to his turnaround at the Olympics.
January 10th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
sloagm-
I read the entire thread and your comment was the best. Insightful. Accurate.
January 13th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
Insanity is defined as repeating the same act and expecting different results.
Insanity = “Electing McCain as President and expecting different results as when he was a Senator.�
Major Legislation:
McCain – Kennedy
McCain – Feingold
Major backers in the Senate:
Lindsey Graham who called those that opposed McCain-Kennedy Amnesty bill “bigots�
Lieberman who just voted against making English the official language of the United States.
Oh yes….McCain a true conservative? NOT