Yours truly was interviewed for the below piece in Cybercast News. The link for the whole story follows these excerpts and comments.

By Evan Moore
CNSNews.com Correspondent
January 09, 2008

(CNSNews.com) - Following Sen. John McCain’s victory in the New Hampshire primary, the South Carolina primary looms as the next major electoral battle. And two presumptive Republican leaders in the state - former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee - may face a tougher challenge there than conventional wisdom might believe.

In an interview with Cybercast News Service, Mike DeVine, a former state Democratic Party official in South Carolina and a columnist for The Charlotte Observer, noted that the Republican Party there is markedly different from that in Iowa.

“The GOP in South Carolina that I lost to a lot [over 20 years] is [comprised of] mainstream conservatives,” he said. “They’re Reagan conservatives. … This includes evangelicals - they’re mostly Southern Baptists. A lot of military [there] too - much different from Iowa.”

“I don’t think that Huckabee will do nearly as well” in South Carolina as he did in Iowa, said DeVine. “Some of his views are simply anathema to the conservative philosophy of the state. He’s shown some weaknesses. The people aren’t going to just vote for him because he’s a Baptist. They won’t be nearly as receptive to identity politics.”

Peter Beinart, editor of The New Republic magazine, echoed that view in a recent piece, saying, “Historically, the ‘peace churches’ - Quakers, Mennonites, and the Church of the Brethren - have thrived in the state. Few states receive as few defense dollars as Iowa, and few have as great a skepticism toward military force.”

I do want to amend my blog from yesterday, SC may not nullify McCain’s latest NH Pyrrhic victory based on some conversations with GOP contacts in South Carolina. The crowded field, military voters and late arriving Thompson gives McCain the advantage.

In contrast, Jim Geraghty, campaign blogger for the National Review Online, noted, “South Carolina brims with military institutions and traditions.”

“The state is the home of the Citadel, Charleston Air Force Base, U.S. Army Fort Jackson in Columbia, the Marine Corps Air Station in Beaufort … Altogether the state is home to about 38,000 active duty and about 26,000 Reserve and National Guard members. This isn’t counting the state’s numerous military retirees,” Geraghty added.

While McCain has the backing of over 100 retired generals and admirals from the armed services, Thompson has made a strong play for the South Carolina military community by announcing his plan to rebuild America’s military at the Citadel.

Huckabee’s recent article in Foreign Affairs magazine purporting that the Bush administration’s foreign policy was rooted in an “arrogant bunker mentality” has been used by candidates as a line of attack in debates. In that same article, however, Huckabee expressed support for expanding defense spending from 3.9 percent of GDP to 6 percent.

The Iowan evangelical conservatives, according to Geraghty, “have a history of falling hard for the candidate who wears his religion on his sleeve the most” and tend to rally around their own when they are under attack.”

By contrast, “The South Carolina Christian conservative population is not nearly as monolithically united, however, allowing an opportunity for Thompson’s appeal,” Geraghty said.

As to Huckabee,

Huckabee’s rise in the polls, DeVine said, was due to strong debate performances and to coming in at the right time in respect to his opposition.

“Rudy [Giuliani] and John McCain basically didn’t go to Iowa and ask for their votes,” said DeVine. “Mitt Romney was there almost too long. Heck, it’s almost like he’s been there long enough to be president. Then you had Fred coming in late,” De Vine added.

Geraghty added that “populism,” which Huckabee has modeled his campaign on, “has not played a dominant theme in a South Carolina Republican presidential primary in recent memory. If there has been any clear-cut economic theme in South Carolina politics, it has been state’s steady support for low taxes.”

Read it all:

Huckabee, Thompson Face Tough Ground in SC

Conversations with contacts in SC today has sobered my view from last night. I have been mostly out of the state for the past 6 months and it appears that Huckabee has captured the imagination of a not insubstantial portion of the electorate, with McCain being the choice of the establishment. The SC historic desire to pick a winner seems to have helped heal wounds from 2000 when he got 42% of the vote.

I still think my views concerning the electorate in my home state expressed over the past year are sound. They are not bigoted against Mormons (Romney has received many endorsements and his yard signs are not a rare sight). They do not share McCain’s views on many issues, but do respect his military service and war hawk stance. The crowded field gives him the edge.

I suspect many evangelicals are unaware of many of Huckabee’s more moderate to liberal views, but like him because he is unapologetically refusing to succumb to PC silence in discussing God in the public square, and they love his views on the family and life.

Fred’s views are more in line with the State that either Huckabee, McCain or Romney, but he has arrived late.

But the crowded field could also make it possible for Fred to win as well. Were Fred in a two-man race with any of the other contenders, I am confident he would win.

But it’s not. So Fred faces an uphill battle. It is not impossible.

One other factor occurs to me that could explain a possible advantage for Huckabee. The Democratic Party in SC is a shell of its former self. The massive exodus of democrats to the GOP could have moved it a bit further to the left. Its still very conservative, but maybe not as much as in the 80s and 90s when I was losing to them all the time!

Mike Gamecock DeVine @ The Charlotte Observer
The HinzSight Report
The Minority Report
Huck is history in the Race 4 2008
“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson
FRED08