GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Could it be, could it really be?!
- John McCain 27% (10%)
- Rudy Giuliani 19% (29%)
- Mitt Romney 17% (20%)
- Mike Huckabee 17% (24%)
- Fred Thompson 8% (8%)
- Ron Paul 5% (-)
Poll conducted from 1/9-1/10. There were 502 likely Republican voters surveyed, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5%.
This is how Survey USA describes it:
Suddenly, NH Win Slingshots McCain Past Giuliani in Florida Republican Primary: Rudolph Giuliani, who had led in a Florida Republican Primary by as many as 14 points in previous SurveyUSA tracking polls, today trails John McCain by 8 points, fighting with Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney to hold onto 2nd place, 3 days after McCain won the New Hampshire Primary. Giuliani’s entire campaign is predicated on a win in Florida on 01/29/08, immediately followed by wins in other “big states.” Giuliani did not compete in Iowa and competed half-heartedly in New Hampshire and South Carolina, concentrating his time and once-considerable resources on Florida. Now, McCain runs stronger than Giuliani in all 5 regions of Florida, including Southeast Florida, where Giuliani had led McCain by 51 points 6 weeks ago. Among males, Giuliani’s support is half of what it was 5 weeks ago. McCain among men jumped 20 points after New Hampshire. Among Conservatives, Huckabee is tied with McCain for the lead, Giuliani and Romney tied for 3rd place. Among Moderates, McCain leads Giuliani 2:1 and leads Huckabee 5:1. Among voters age 49 and younger, Huckabee, McCain and Giuliani are in an effective tie for the lead. Among voters age 50+, McCain leads Giuliani by 11.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
THAT’S what I’m talking about!
January 11th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
Is there a new Mich poll coming out anytime soon?
January 11th, 2008 at 4:30 pm
I know Tommy said SUSA is reliable but remember this SUSA is not Reliable. I do not believe McCain has that big of an edge over Guliani.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
The deflation of Rudy is the real key stat here. However, this is just one poll and may be an outlier.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
I can’t believe that we all forgot why McCain’s campaign imploded last summer.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
Republicans must not care about illegal immigration or freedom of speech that much. Oh well.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
This is what happens when you sit on the sideline and snicker while mitt takes on Huck and McCAin by himself.
Rudy Get off your butt now and help mitt fight these liberals! Fred finally realized it now its your turn.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
Rudy . . . Firewall?? Are Rudy supporters at all concerned with this??
January 11th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
Romney 1st
Thompson 2nd
Guiliani 3rd
huck and mccain I can’t support
January 11th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
Mitt Romney has a tiny crowd in Michigan… death watch….
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1702841,00.html
January 11th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
nice to see huck bellyflopping after Iowa however.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
And the crazy thing is, HE HASN’T EVEN WON MICHIGAN YET!
Metro, so much for no momentum this primary season.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
What does McCain mean when he says that he’ll have the Governors certify that the borders are secure. So is he going to say “Border states fix the border” and if it doesn’t happen it’s the states fault.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
#10 What’s with the thread jacking? We already saw that in another thread.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
#10 - Nice thread jack. Stay on topic Florida. Or is it too painful to admit that Rudy is getting his butt handed to him in Florida according to this poll??
January 11th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
Florida why dont you shut up about mitt already and comment on your man here.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
The poll is very interesting… Though it does seem to be an anomaly.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
panhandle hearts Huckabee and Mitt
January 11th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
Oh, this is nothing. Mayor Giuliani’s organization failed to file for delegates in heavily Italian, heavily pro-Rudy RI. See:
http://www.eyeon08.com/2008/01/10/romney-and-giuliani-delegate-operation-fails-in-rhode-island/
How is this anything other than disastrous if your strategy depends on accumulating delegates?
Hizzoner is my favorite candidate. So I would really appreciate it if he could, you know, get it together.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
The word is in Florida that Rudy will be picking up a MAJOR endorsement next week….
January 11th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
“Rudy . . . Firewall?? Are Rudy supporters at all concerned with this??”
Yes. Color me concerned.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
This poll is probably accurate. Giuliani is collapsing nationwide. It’s what is propelling the McCain surge. Moderates are switching from Giuliani to McCain.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
As it has been in every other state, when Rudy starts hitting a state hard with ads, he goes down hill. Its happened in every state so far. Rudy is dead meat!!!! Let’s see where all his supporters go now!!
January 11th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
This poll IMO sigals the beginning of the end of Rudy’s campaign. McCain will win MI (although I am praying for a miracle Romney win) and the momentum from there will propel McCain to win SC, and FL is in the bag for McCain. Rudy is as good as dead at this point . . . unless he gets off hs butt and starts fighting back, rather than letting Mitt take all the heat. C’mon Rudy . . . get off you butt and fight!!
January 11th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
ouch. giuliani is going down.
also, how does huck win iowa but go down. i know why, he is a one hit wonder who doesn’t appeal to anybody but evangelicals.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
mccain’s shots are looking better and better.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
McCAin could not win the national without the base.period.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
“Let’s see where all his supporters go now!!”
To anyone but Romney, would be my answer. But I am not going to budge until hizzoner withdraws formally.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Rudy is going to fight back… on Jan 20th… he is going to let McCain take out Romney and Fred in Michigan and S. Carolina…. Then when that is over it will be all out war with McCain in Florida.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
The only constant is Mitt getting hit and staying in the fight. I see this boiling down to a McCain vs. Romney super-tuesday delegate slugfest. In that case, Romney wins. I think the Conservative right of the party won’t easliy forgive McCain for his maverick stances against the party’s base.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
I agree with some of you about the perception that Rudy has been sitting back and hoping the other candidates eliminate each other. While it has, some cases, worked out this way, I think it may ultimately spell doom for Rudy.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
Jared: Are Rudy supporters at all concerned with this??
I was so mad I had to eat a sandwich.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
[...] Hat Tip: Race 4 2008. [...]
January 11th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
#29 - Wishful thinking. That is the same argument Metro made about Rudy’s ad blitz in the week just before Iowa. That Rudy was waiting, and was going to unleash the ads, and destroy everyone. All I have seen is Hizzoner pulling out of early states one by one, and now his firewall is toast.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
“I think the Conservative right of the party won’t easliy forgive McCain for his maverick stances against the party’s base.”
I’ve already forgiven and forgotten Sen. McCain’s many transgressions. Go John!!!
What I will never forget nor forgive is Romney’s hideously negative advertising in IA and NH.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
#28 civic
If not Romney you always have McCain and Huck to go to. Which one do you prefer?
January 11th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
“I see this boiling down to a McCain vs. Romney super-tuesday delegate slugfest. In that case, Romney wins”
WHAT? Oh yes. I forgot. UT, NV, ID and WY havd 500 delegates each. How silly of me.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
#32 - LOL That was funny.
The risk that Rudy faces is that people will say the same thing they were saying about Fred after his great dbate the other night. Too little too late. I think the voters will want to see some fight from their candidate early on in order to throw their support his way.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
29 - Florida you are becoming lewss and less worth debating. So you are saying after McCAin wins 3 or 4 more times then Rudy will magically win Florida? McCain is killing Rudy now with just one win.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
#35 “hideously negative”? Did you vote for Bush in 2000? And if so, did you see any of his ads in the primaries?
January 11th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Goodbye Rudy . . .
Goodbye Metro . . .
Goodbye Republican Party.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
Jared #30,
What world are you living in? Where is this anti-McCain base now as he’s pulling ahead?
If it’s McCain v Romney on Super Tuesday, McCain wins every state except Utah. It’s that simple.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
#37 - Read this post, and do the math.
http://www.redstate.com/blogs/thunder/2008/jan/10/can_romney_take_2nd_place_all_the_way_to_the_nomination
It is entirely possible that Romney win the most delegates.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
“I was so mad I had to eat a sandwich.”
Did it help? I might need one too.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
Jared,
I read it. It’s nonsense. Romney can’t “silver medal” his way to victory. After a few more contests Romney will be “silver medaling” to the same front-runner who will keep getting the Gold (in RomSpeak). So that analysis doesn’t hold up. Look how quickly McCain is rising after a single win.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
Okay, so what is the magic number of delegates to win the nomination?
And what exactly happens in a brokered convention anyway?
And can anyone point me to a good site where it details which states are
all-or-nothing, and which ones split delegates?
January 11th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
#35 - “What I will never forget nor forgive is Romney’s hideously negative advertising in IA and NH.”
Yet you forgive McCain for calling Romney a pig?? OK
#42 - “What world are you living in?”
The world where math rules, and numbers don’t lie. It’s called the “real world”. You should give it a try.
See the link in #43 and admit there is a chance.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
Jared - Interesting artcile. However I think Mitt takes Arizona from jmac. Huge LDS base there that can’t be polled.
January 11th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
#43,
It’s a pipedream. McCain is now using the same strategy (sans Iowa) that Romney himself had intended: win early and ride the momentum from each progressive state as you become more and more unstoppable.
McCain was won ONE state, and he’s vaulted to the front of the pack. After he wins MI, he’ll win SC. With those two, he’ll win FL. With EVERY STATE EXCEPT IOWA AND NON-POPULAR VOTE WYOMING, you mean to tell me that people WON’T vote for him?
January 11th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
I’d have no problem voting for JMac if he’s the nominee. But that’s still a ways off.
As long as Rudy’s still in the race when we get to vote here in WV (Juvember 32nd or so), I’ll vote for him. If he’s out, I may go for the Democratic ballot, since that determines 99.9% of all state and local offices. The GOP ballot normally has fewer candidates locally than available offices. Plus, if things work out that way, I’d at least have a chance to vote for Mike Gravel.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Although I think Mitt can’t win the nomination with only silver medals, I think most of you are overlooking something: it shows that Mitt’s support is consistent and widespread relative to the other candidates who’ve only been shown to have pockets of support.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Jared,
The only way that RedState analysis works is if Romney keeps getting second place to different candidates. Give it a couple weeks and it will become painful clear. Not. Gonna. Happen.
And I’ve been waiting for a year to get this question answered. WHERE is Romney’s BASE? McCain will wipe the floor with him in the Northeast. Mitt better pray that somehow Huck goes away soon or he’ll have to fight for the “bronze” in the South.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
I’ll vote 3rd party Ron Paul before I vote McCain……….I take that back, if it’s McCain, I won’t waist my time voting.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
#45 - You forget that there will be a lot of “gold medals” won by Romney on Super-Tuesday, just as others will win their states as well. I am simply pointing out, that Romney has been rising in national polls, and despite placing 2nd in IA and NH, and likely MI. He is still in the ight, and still has a shot. For you to say otherwise, proves you know nothing of what you speak, and that you are in a state of blind hatred towards Romney. That’s OK, but let’s just call it what it is. You HATE Romney, and refuse to see a possibility he can win the nomination. I can admit he has a chanceat losing, and at this point, it looks slim for him, but there is a chance. Can you admit as much for your guy??
January 11th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
#48 I’m LDS and most the LDS people I know in my state don’t seem very political. I can’t see them making a very big difference, even in Arizona. Although I have no idea how the church is down there.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
“You forget that there will be a lot of “gold medalsâ€? won by Romney on Super-Tuesday”
WHERE?
January 11th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
#54,
Romney has a “CHANCE” at losing? If by chance, you mean something like 90%, then yes. Does McCain have a chance at losing? Sure, but a hell of a lot less likely than Mitt.
That article is flawed, because it assumes Romney is always 2nd and different people are 1st, and that he does great on Super Tuesday. Romney *may* always be 2nd, but from here on out, the same guy is going to be 1st ALL THE TIME. Where’s your 2nd place then?
January 11th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
“#35 “hideously negativeâ€?? Did you vote for Bush in 2000? And if so, did you see any of his ads in the primaries?”
Here is the distinction as I see it, you who calls yourself “fredsfighter” but only who only seems to speak for Romney: Bush was not a self-funder. He shares responsibility for his ads with those who funded him. It’s different when a super-rich pretender uses his own money to try to kill the careers of better men. Then it is no longer a contest among peers; then my sense of fair play gets offended. I experienced the same revulsion with Steve Forbes’ negative campaigning in IA or when George Soros went berserk with all those 527 ads in 2004.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
Do you guys really expect a man whose entire campaign can best be described as “Run, Rudy, Run” (away from any real fight, that is), to take on McCain head-to-head? I hope I am wrong, but I will believe it when I see it.
In all seriousness, Rudy Giuliani has been running from any real fight since he left office after 9/11. He nad the chance to go against Hillary and deny her the US Senate seat from New York. He ran away from that. He had the opportunity to run against Mitt Romney in Ames, IA. He ran away from that. He could of contended in any pre-Florida state. He even made a half-hearted attempt in New Hampshire. He ran away from that.
Anyone who is counting on ex-Mayor Rudy Giuliani standing and fighting is going to be disappointed, I’m afraid. Do I want to be wrong? Absolutely. But facts are stubborn things. And the facts say Giuliani no longer has a stomach for fighting.
Romney and Thompson are going to have to do this thing on their own. Mitt is up to it. I’m not sure Fred is.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:06 pm
“WHERE?”
The south! Romney will kill in the south!
I’m laughing so hard I can hardly type …
January 11th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
civc,
Haha. No one EVER has a good answer to that question. Romney has NEVER led, in a single poll or a single contest where he hasn’t vastly outspent his competition. Even with that he is 0 for 2. Where in God’s name is Romney going to win on 2/5? And how on Earth is he ever going to be able to out-resource his rivals in twenty states?
January 11th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
Actully that should read,
And how on Earth is he ever going to be able to out-resource his rivals in twenty states AT THE SAME TIME?
January 11th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
#36 - You said you read the article??
I agree with the states they mentioned. UT, MA, and VT are all plausible for Romney in those “winner-take-all” states. He already has won WY, and has a shot at winning NV. Are you and I watching the same race?? I think the ONLY thing that anyone can say with certainty at this point, is that nobody knows what will happen. Just step away from the computer for a minute . . . take a deep breath . . . and shout at the top of your lungs, “I HATE MITT ROMNEY” . . then come back to the computer feeling better that you have voiced your hatred, and can contribute to the discussion in a logical way.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
#58 BS!!!
McCain aired negative ads as well, said personal remarks in person. This is part of a campaign and you can’t have a thick skin. All candidates have done “negative” campaigning whether it be in ads, mailers, debates, events etc. Some have attacked character some have attacked positions and some have attacked issues.
GET OVER IT.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
#58 How many threads do I get the chance to defend Fred in? I was at work while Fred was laying the smack down last week, so unfortunately I didn’t get to participate. Romney is my #2 or #3 though, and I’ll call you on cheap shots against him too.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:12 pm
*thin
January 11th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
Jared,
Utah doesn’t count. It’s Romney’s only “momentum proof” state. I wouldn’t even be bullish on MA. Voters hate Mitt there and John McCain won VT in 2000. If he starts to run away with this in the next week or two, Mitt won’t take VT.
You’re right though. I guess we’ll just see.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
#63 applies to Patrick, and civic as well.
I am simply pointing out that this race is extremely fliud, and that anyone has a chance . . . yes Romney included. For you all to state with such boldness that McCain is the nominee at this point, proves you are not dealing in reality. You remind me of the MSM and the whole Obama wins NH thing. While McCain may win it, your boldness is hardly warranted at this point.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
#58 I’ll admit that Romney has immense personal resources. He has, however, raised significant funds apart from his personal warchest though. I would only wish that Fred was a millionaire, too. I think more people might have been able to get to know him.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
*65 While Fred was laying the smack down last night. Correction (ahem)
January 11th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
You know, it’s annoying to me to hear the hot air coming from the “Official Rombot Spin” but it’s actually kinda funny now that I think about it. I can’t wait to hear what they have to say after Romney loses Michigan to McCain!
And when McCain takes South Carolina? And after he beats Rudy in FL? I don’t even know how that’ll get spun into a Romney victory, but I can’t wait to hear it! It’s all part of Romney’s master plan to steal the nomination after McCain has won every state.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
#67 - “Utah doesn’t count.”
In the race for delegates, every state counts.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
The Supreme Court will give the nomination to Romney at the convention. You just wait.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
hell ya!! its lights out folks!
national poll:
McCain 32
Huck 21
Rudy 18
Romney 14
Fred 6
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/11/2008.poll/index.html
January 11th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
#71 I haven’t seen many people anywhere predicting a Romney win in Michigan…
January 11th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
Patrick,
I have stated that Romney will lose to McCain in MI. I can deal with reality. But a loss there in this race hardly counts him out. In a race where there is no clear front-runner, although McCain is the most recent one to hold momentum, that same momentum has proven to be a fickle as a teenage girl. Are you not reading my posts?? I have already stated that McCain will probably win MI, SC, and FL. If Romney oes respectably in those states as well, this boils down to a McCain vs. Romney battle for delegates. That is a plausible scenario, and I am tired of trying to point out plausibility to someone who clearly just hates Romney. We’ll see how it plays out.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
again, as i pointed out earlier today…this poll was done by none other than……..SURVEY USA!
the same firm that shows mccain within 3 points of rudy in NYC…..think about it, they release these two polls on the same day…here is a perfect example of bogus polling driving public opinion. don’t be fooled. Rudy will win FL.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
Well, the time has come and the Giuliani deathwatch is begining. Should Rudy drop out of the race?…The only thing that could save Rudy is that Mitt win in Michigan and stop the McRino there.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
jared, no frontrunner? rofl
you may want to visit post 74
January 11th, 2008 at 5:22 pm
Can we wait until the McCain lovefest is over before we jump to any conclusions? There are still 2 1/2 weeks left, two primaries, and tons of campaigning, endorsements, etc., left to come.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
davew, surverusa is one of the best. maybe youre confusing it with ARG
January 11th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
sampo, If you are still trusting polls at this point, you are truly on of the sheep that the liberal media counts on.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
Mitt Romney said this:
“I frankly don’t think that the nation is going to choose Senator McCain or Mike Huckabee to be the nominee.”
Anyone here agree? I do, and the first 3 voting states will agree - they collectively chose Romney, and they are more liberal than other states. I think this nation will only choose Senator McCain as the nominee in a split convention, I don’t think he has a direct path at all.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:25 pm
Here’s what I see happening:
McCain will win Michigan with Huckabee 2nd place and Romney 3rd. Giuliani and Thompson will do horribly in Michigan.
Both Giuliani and Thompson’s campaigns are collapsing. The media seems to focus on Fred’s collapse, but soon they will pick up on Rudy’s collapse.
McCain will be the favorite to win in South Carolina. He’s likely going to win it, unless Thompson supporters and Romney supporters start moving over to Huckabee, which could happen depending on what happens in Michigan. This will become a McCain vs. Huckabee race, with McCain as the favorite to win it. McCain will be seen as the more liberal candidate and Huckabee as the more conservative candidate. I know a lot of Thompson and Romney people disagree with Huckabee being a “conservative,” but look at the polls. Huckabee is winning among conservatives, and McCain is winning among moderates and liberals.
If the conservative base of the party rallies around Huckabee, he’ll be the nominee. If it stays divided, McCain will be the nominee. The only chance for Romney (there is still a chance for him) is if he wins in Michigan. If he wins it, he’ll have a real chance of replacing Huckabee as the conservative anti-McCain. If he loses Michigan, he’ll stay in the race but only be a spoiler. The phrase “a vote for Mitt is a vote for John” will be too true. Fred, meanwhile, is already a spoiler.
A vote for Fred is a vote for John. Please leave Fred so Romney or Huckabee can beat McCain.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
sampo…..how in the hell do you actually think that survey USA is one of the best…do you have proof?
January 11th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Fredsfighter,
“I haven’t seen many people anywhere predicting a Romney win in Michigan…”
I also haven’t seen many people anywhere predicting a Clinton victory in NH. Anyways, anyone who has a solid prediction out there for MI is off their rocker - I don’t think anyone has a clue.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
#84 Fred voters will not be likely to have Huckabee as their second choice. He’s certainly not mine.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
“Please leave Fred so Romney or Huckabee can beat McCain”
Not gonna happen until after SC. By then maybe even FredState and Free Republic will see the writing on the wall. Just maybe…
January 11th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
Jrcutler,
Not to jinx anything but polling on the GOP side has been very good so far.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
#86 I predict a surprise victory for Keyes in MI
January 11th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
just google SURVEY USA’s website…i think you will see why their polls should not be considered credible.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
I will not predict a Romney defeat when he is ahead in delegates, has won one of the first 3 states, and is set for a strong finish in Michigan. Michigan’s primary is too messed up to give it any real value - as long as people tell the truth on the exit polls, I think that the truth will come out how messed up the primary was, and perhaps then it will be considered a draw. If only 15-20 percent independents vote and McCain wins by 9 percent, it’s a clear defeat for Romney, if 30 percent independents show up and Romney loses by 1 percent, I think it’s a draw.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
Tommy Oliver:
#1 - Survey USA: (drum roll, please) Survey USA. SUSA made predictions in 30 states, and in 9 Battleground States. SUSA got 29 right and 1 wrong, and was off by an average of 3.70 points. So, why does SUSA win with 29/30, and beat RR take second with 33/33? It comes down to hitting the bullseye. EIGHTEEN of Survey USA’s final polls were the closest for that state, almost twice as many as every other major poll PUT TOGETHER! Also, none of their polls were invalidated for being more than 10 points off. In the Battleground States, SUSA got 8 right and 1 wrong, and was off by an average of 3.44 points. Three of SUSA’s final polls in Battleground States were the closest for that state, again the best of any poll.
http://race42008.com/2007/10/01/one-final-note-ranking-the-polls-in-2004/
January 11th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
Who would have thought that we could come down to a two man race in FL between McCain and Huck? That’s crazy.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
“Michigan’s primary is too messed up to give it any real value”
But somehow you count Wyoming as important?
January 11th, 2008 at 5:35 pm
Huckabee is being under-estimated. McCain is being over-estimated.
Huckabee will appeal to evangelicals, moderate/undecided conservatives,
minorities, and blue collar conservatives with maybe a few independents.
Romney will hold his ground and will establish McCain’s weeknesses to the
point that a turn out like Iowa will bring the same results. Huckabee,
Romney, and McCain in that order. Huckabee will be boosted into S.C.
specially with first, noticeably if second, and subtly if third.
McCain will lose some steam and it will return to a Huckabee v. Romney
race with Huckabee getting a boost from S.C. into FL. Rudy will be
a factor but this race will come between the two Governors with Huckabee
having the advantage of Romney for the nomination.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:38 pm
Fred will end his candidacy in S.C. and endorse McCain. Fred’s political
staff and establishment types will support McCain, but the remainning support
of Fred from the grassroots will go to Huckabee.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:38 pm
84 - sorry Eric As much as I hate McCAin he at least has a good foreign policy and I would back him WAY before Huck. McCAin at least wont embarass our country with lack of knowledge.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
96, all reasons huckabee would make a good synergistic wingman to mccain.
January 11th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
Adam,
you silly goose, don’t you know that Democrats are going to be voting in this race? Ever crossed your mind? Does that sound like a Republican primary to you?
By the way, if you didn’t know, Wyoming is strongly conservative and pulls in 12-13 delegates, how many delegates does NH have? That’s right, 22.
Every delegate matters. Disagree?
January 11th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
Jrcutler,
SillIER goose. How many regular people got to vote in Wyoming? So it was meaningless in terms of guaging popular support. A bunch of party leaders got to vote - sort of like they did in Soviet Russia.
Since every delegate matters, how many delegates does MI have? 30!
January 11th, 2008 at 5:53 pm
Hello, all (McCain-site publisher)-
#46 - Colorado
All the good stuff in your question - how many delegates are needed, rules, etc.-
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22419475
Very good page.
#61 - Adam
He accurately notes that Mitt could not win in Iowa, where he outspent Huck by a 15-1 margin, and also had vastly more face time in the state. Mitt could not win in NH, despite outspending all other Rs combined, and having served as the governor of an adjoining state and having a vacation home there.
There are no other states, outside of Michigan, where Mitt will have anything like those advantages. He is not advertising in SC or FL. Granted, every state’s electorate is different, and some will respond better to Mitt than others. But if he couldn’t win under those circumstances, it seems unlikely that he would win, w/o those advantages…
January 11th, 2008 at 5:53 pm
Michigan will show that the Republican party is fractured. More calls for
another Ronald Reagan will be made to bring the party back together. The only
candidate that I see has the energy and voice to unify the party as the candidate
of the people will be Huckabee. This due to the fact that he has a positive
message that describes change and how to deliver change backed by experience.
Huckabee is the best communicator in the group of candidates and has an energized
block of voters and can send the conservative message out into the general public
and pick up the votes and support of reagan democrats, independents, moderates, and
the votes of the minorities.
January 11th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
Adam,
You failed miserably to put down my argument that dems will be voting in MI. Oh well, pick on Wyoming if you please.
January 12th, 2008 at 1:51 am
Somewhat disconcerting to Rudy supporters, but I do agree with whoever said earlier that this is a bounce (remebmer Fred’s entry and the Huckaboom). How much of a bounce and whether it continues remains to be seen.
That said, I would still be very pleased if I were John McCain. Lookng forwardto seeing whether this is an anomoly or not.