According to Jon Martin:
Mitt Romney is just barely out-spending John McCain on the Michigan airwaves in the final days leading up to the state’s primary.
Romney, who has far out-spent McCain and all his GOP competitors on TV, has about $566,000 worth of spots up across six of the sprawling mitten state’s markets. But McCain has just shy of $537,000 behind his own Michigan ad campaign.
The numbers, provided by a Democrat who tracks the commercials, underscore the degree to which McCain’s fundraising has caught up since his resurrection and victory in New Hampshire Tuesday.
Both candidates have over 1,000 points in the pricey Detroit market which reaches the state’s southeastern population center (Romney has 1,285; McCain 1,087).
Lagging well behind McCain and Romney on the airwaves here is Mike Huckabee. He’s only got about $238,000 on Michigan TV, including under 400 points on Detroit.
Considering Romney outspent McCain 2 to 1 in New Hampshire, this is a welcome turnaround. I’m also surprised that Mike Huckabee isn’t spending more money on ads. But given that his campaign is engaged in yet another extensive outreach to every Evangelical in the state, he may not need to.
The Michigan primary is a complete mess. What will turnout look like? In 2000, the Michigan primary had 32% turnout (which was shockingly the highest on record). Will it be higher or lower? Will Evangelicals turn out in force for Huckabee like they did in Iowa or will they be split with McCain like New Hampshire? Will independents and Democrats that would normally vote for Obama or Edwards stay home, vote “Uncommitted” to spite Hillary, or shake things up on the Republican side? Does this “Democrats for Mitt Romney” initiative have legs or not? I suspect that all of these factors is one reason why pollsters are shying away from the state.
January 12th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
“The Michigan primary is a complete mess. ”
Agreed. The Democrats are the big wildcard here.
As for Huck and evangelicals, I expect that he will do a little worse among evangelicals in Michigan than he did Iowa, but a lot better than he did in New Hampshire. It makes sense too. Geographically and culturally, Michigan is somewhere between Iowa and New Hampshire.
The big test for Huck in Michigan is if he can start to pull in Reagan Democrats. Some of them are evangelical, but many are not. Among people who are not simply trying to mess with the results (like DailyKos) the Reagan Democrats are the biggest variable. I suspect they are being severely underpolled, and COULD push Huck’s numbers much higher.
January 12th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Here’s how McCain is paying for his ads:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0108/7837.html
He is going heavily into debt to buy these early wins. But he can’t sustain this in the long run. If he doesn’t get a decisive lead now soon there will be a lot of bankers knocking on his door.
January 12th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Hickabee needs Ron Paul to leave the race.
Yesterday, my 9-11 Truther co-worker told me that Hickabee is the only Republican candidate he likes. He’s an Edwards supporter. Thought you Hucksters would appreciate the anecdote.
January 12th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
does anyone know what LDS population is in MI?
January 12th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
If McCain wins, will we be able to claim he won by buying the democrats votes?
January 12th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
Randy,
“Hickabee needs…”
Why do you insist on engaging in the rhetoric of class warfare?
January 12th, 2008 at 2:09 pm
Jason,
“If McCain wins, will we be able to claim he won by buying the democrats votes?”
What do you mean by that?
January 12th, 2008 at 2:11 pm
MWS, I’m not using “hick” to point out anything other than I think he is in over his head.
January 12th, 2008 at 2:15 pm
Randy,
“I’m not using “hick†to point out anything other than I think he is in over his head.”
Whew. For a minute there I thought it was a clever play on the fact that he is Southern Baptist, from a working class background, or from Arkansas.
But I guess it is only supposed to reference the idea that “he is in over his head.” I should have known! That is how EVERYONE uses the word “hick.”
Okee-doke.
January 12th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
So how are things going for the candidates in Michigan:
“GRAND RAPIDS — Mike Huckabee was lobbying and battling for support — and votes — on Saturday… He found an adulating throng of at least 600 people”
http://www.mlive.com/elections/index.ssf/2008/01/huckabee_i_love_you_guys_in_mi.html
“Despite embracing Michigan as the heart of his bid to revive his campaign, Republican Mitt Romney was greeted by anemic crowds Friday as he began his final push for votes in the crucial primary.
No more than 150 people were on hand for his appearance at Macomb Community College’s Center for Alternative Fuels, in a space set up for an audience twice that size. ”
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jWbI2rULUHnQwe-83Fd1Pb2lT8-wD8U3UA880
January 12th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
Randy,
Obama is in over his head.
Would you call him a “hick?”
January 12th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
Happy to clear that up for you, MWS. I would never hold a candidate’s religion, socio-economic upbringing, or geography against him.
January 12th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Randy,
So do you think Obama is a “hick?”
January 12th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
MWS #11
No, I would call him a “liberal democrat”. All the Democrats are in over their head. Its a requirement in that party.
January 12th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Despite all the millions of his family fortune that Mitt poured into his campaign trying to con people into thinking he is a Reagan Republican, it appears that Romney is now relying on Democrat saboteurs in Michigan to save his campaign.
I love the irony.
January 12th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
Randy,
But you defined a “hick” as someone who is “in over his head,” and claim it has nothing to do with religion, socio-economic background, or place of origin. Yet you say Democrats are in over their heads, but that they are not hicks. So what is the REAL reason you call Huckabee a hick?
January 12th, 2008 at 2:38 pm
Is “class warfare” okay when it is directed at working class people?
January 12th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
Mws
You just said: “Why do you insist on engaging in the rhetoric of class warfare?”
then you turn around and so the same thing, you have been crying about Romney’s money (which he worked hard and smart to earn)
Class warfare? That is the Huck way!!!!!!!!!!
January 12th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
MWS, if any candidate has tried to work the class warfare in his favor, it’s certainly Huckabee
January 12th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
this is typical huck (and supporters) they take some thing out of the question and tear it to pieces without answering the question.
January 12th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Very low Steve, don’t know the exact numbers though.
January 12th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Hello, all (McCain-site publisher)-
LJ – good find, as always. My two cents:
I would agree w/ LJ that these unusual factors mean that there is a unique unpredictability to the primary. Will Dems vote uncommitted? Will HRC voters ensure they vote for her to stop uncommitted? The rise of the “uncommitted” campaign concerns me, not only b/c of the potential loss of Obama/Edwards supporters, but also HRC supporters who are now threatened by “uncommitted”. The more Dems and indies who vote in the primary, the better off McCain is.
I noted in a comment on the Rasmussen poll that he is estimating that the GOP primary vote will be 75% Republican. I have no way of knowing if that’s a good estimate, obviously.
What does hearten me – the spending totals. Mitt outspent all of the other Rs – combined – in NH. The fact that Michigan is competitive for McCain in terms of ad buys is a good sign.
One McCain staffer told a reporter (I’d cite it, but I can’t remember which article this was in) was that they love Huck – because he’d draining votes from Mitt that McCain would never draw to begin with. I wish Huck were spending more money in Michigan. But I doubt that he has enough $$$ to be up in SC (where he actually has a great chance to win), and Michigan. He also has more time for those $$$ to be effective in SC, since it’s another five days away.
Thoughts?
January 12th, 2008 at 2:47 pm
MWS, please don’t let the fact that I find your guy uncompelling and unimpressive ruin your day. Get over it.
January 12th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
I see it took a little time for the posse to show up. Huck’s rhetoric doesn’t bother me at all. Just because someone is considered about the poor and economically vulnerable, doesn’t mean he hates the rich. We can help the poor without tearing down the rich. My point is that those who decry Huck’s “class warfare” seem to have no problem whatsoever with identifying working people as stupid and ignorant.
You can’t have it both ways guys. You can’t decry class warfare from the union hall, and then embrace it from the country club.
January 12th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
Steve– The LDS population in MI doubles when Mitt and his wife are there.
http://www.adherents.com/maps/map_us_lds.jpg
January 12th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
#24 of course that map is 18 years old, the LDS church has grown since then
January 12th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
MWS -
I am working class.
You and Huck are always trying to use Mitt’s money against him. Always trying the dems strategy of divide and conquer.
If it (huck)looks like a liberal and sounds like a liberal it probably is a liberal
January 12th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
This is a marathon and Romney is well-positioned in it. After Feb 5, there will be some drop outs, and then it’s a state-by-state slugfest to the end. With JMac borrowing funds with the hopes that a few wins will translate into cash, it makes for an interesting race. Romney needs to shut him down in MI. Huckabee can’t rely on the evangelicals saving him from spending money forever, and McCain can’t go on borrowing forever. Rudy’s campaign can’t survive his staff not getting paid. And Romney pulls in $5M after taking 2nd in NH. I can see who will be one of the last candidates standing.
January 12th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
The truth,
I don’t envy or resent Romney’s money. In truth, our Lord said that money is a terrible burden and temptation. What I do criticize Romney for in regard to his money is the fact that despite spending tens of millions of dollars, he can’t win a real primary or caucus. That’s a weak candidate. He’s relying on Democrat saboteurs in Michigan now.
January 12th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
MWS
Once again must we go down this road again?
Who has the most votes?
who has the most delegates?
Who has the most support from Republicans?
The answer to these questions and to all of your problems is MITT ROMNEY.
The lord also said the road to hell is paved with good intentions.
January 12th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
Soon we’ll start going into winner take-all primaries were second place gets no delegates.
If Romney remains Mr. Second-Place than he has no chance at the nomination. Romney has to win Michigan or he has little chance of winning anywhere but Utah or Idaho.
January 12th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
The Truth,
“The lord also said the road to hell is paved with good intentions.”
Actually, that’s not in the Bible. I suppose the sentiment can be gleaned from the Bible, but that is one of those truisms that is often attributed to the Bible, but not found there.
January 12th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
ECON
your correct in that all the candidates must start winning to stay in.
But keep it all in perspective.
McCain 1 out of 50
Huck 1 out of 50
Romney 1 out of 50
There is a long way to go.
January 12th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
For the record, I think that Huckabee is a hick because he’s a Southern Baptist fundamentalist from Arkansas. He also was very fat for a while and his family is fat.
Seems pretty hick-like to me so far.
January 12th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
MWS, so its the Federal Government’s jobs to ‘help the poor even more than they already do. For a while, I thought that Huck’s followers were just being duped by this guy, but come to find out, they actually believe like him. It’s taking giant steps toward more socialism.
January 12th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
Once again must we go down this road again?Who has the most votes? who has the most delegates? Who has the most support from Republicans? The answer to these questions and to all of your problems is MITT ROMNEY.
Oh, God! Stop it! Stop this f’ing nonsense! I’m begging you..!
1% of this contest is decided! The point is that Loser’s big strategy blew up in his face!
January 12th, 2008 at 3:17 pm
MWS
Oh ya that was my Dad.
January 12th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
MWS, so its the Federal Government’s jobs to ‘help the poor even more than they already do. For a while, I thought that Huck’s followers were just being duped by this guy, but come to find out, they actually believe like him. It’s taking giant steps toward more socialism.
Clearly, the Reagan Coalition is as strong as it’s ever been!
January 12th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
The Truth,
“Oh ya that was my Dad.”
LOL! That is definitely a “dadism.” Mom’s the one who reminds us that just because everyone is else jumping off of cliffs, doesn’t mean we need to.
January 12th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
I’m pretty sure MWS is a woman. Am I right?
January 12th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
Oh thatlib – what? I agree we have a long way to go. but “that losers strategy” has him in a pretty good position right now.
Would the comment have been ok if i had left off the Mitt Romney part? and inserted McCainabee?
January 12th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
Illinoisguy
I bet your right – probably cute to, most of those liberal chicks are cute.
January 12th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
#41 like this? http://www.democraticstuff.com/photos/BT13240-2T.jpg
January 12th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
Freds
Now thats funny!!!!!!!!
January 12th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Oh thatlib – what? I agree we have a long way to go. but “that losers strategy†has him in a pretty good position right now. Would the comment have been ok if i had left off the Mitt Romney part? and inserted McCainabee?
LOL. A pretty good position!? He was supposed to win IA and NH. That was his big strategy. He’d be in an amazing position, had he won them both, like, you know, he said he wanted to and his followers all said he’d do.
But…that didn’t happen. He’s in a position of backwards momentum right now.
He’s in a terrible position!
McCain and Huckabee are in good positions; Giuliani’s in an okay position.
January 12th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
TLG — Don’t forget Alan Keyes!!
January 12th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
ThatLib
My good friend, we will see soon enough. If Huck and Mac haven’t worked out a back room deal they will eventually need to go after each other. This hasn’t happened yet so I believe they have made a deal, and a McCain/Huckabee ticket is a land slide LOSSER in the general.
January 12th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
TLG,
“1% of this contest is decided! The point is that Loser’s big strategy blew up in his face!”
Everyone else except for Rudy would have had the same had they had the money to do it. Sorry to bring up the truth that most presidential candidates in modern history have strived for the same strategy Romney attempted (get wins in NH and IA).
Romney did fall short on his strategy, but compared to everyone else, he has succeeded. It’s lucky Romney is competing with a weak feild of candidates (no offense)
January 12th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
EGS,
“If Romney remains Mr. Second-Place than he has no chance at the nomination. Romney has to win Michigan or he has little chance of winning anywhere but Utah or Idaho.”
Forgot about Nevada. You also forget that if he gets 2nd place in all of the rest of the states in the union, he could still get first place overall. Romney is an all-terrain vehicle competing against race cars with slicks and others with tractors. The competition may win some races, but they will do terrible in others. ha ha!
The point is, no one is well-rounded enough to compete in every state except for Romney.
January 12th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
McCain’s campaign should create an ad saying “Thank you Mitt Romney for agreeing with me on immigration reform.”
Text: “It was reported recently that in November, 2005 – only 15 months ago – Romney praised the McCain-Kennedy Immigration reform bill as ‘reasonable’ and defended it publicly against accusations it was ‘amnesty’. In other words Mitt Romney agreed with John McCain and President Bush.”
January 12th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
Sorry I did the math wrong: 25 months ago Romney essentially supported and defended the McCain-Kennedy Immigration Reform bill.
January 12th, 2008 at 8:40 pm
where is it chris?
January 12th, 2008 at 11:09 pm
#50–Mitt has explained that a million times and even in the debates. At the time the idea was introduced there were a few options on the table, and thay were “reasonable”, but in the end when McCain’s came to the table with the immigration amnesty added in detail, he didn’t think it was reasonable any more. It’s not the same as agreeing with the amnesty idea from the beginning.