GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
American Research Group GOP National Primary
- John McCain 25% (18%)
- Mike Huckabee 19% (21%)
- Rudy Giuliani 18% (21%)
- Mitt Romney 17% (16%)
- Ron Paul 5% (5%)
- Fred Thompson 4% (6%)
- Duncan Hunter 1% (5%)
The following results are based on nationwide telephone samples of 600 likely Republican primary voters (those saying they will definitely vote in a primary or participate in a caucus in 2008) conducted January 9-12, 2008. The theoretical margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time. Numbers in parenthess are from ARG’s national survey in December, 2007.
January 13th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
Hello, LJ-
More good news for McCain. What is really noteworthy - this poll shows Rudy with considerable strength, despite the dearth of free media recently.
January 13th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
Its a good thing we all know who Fred Thompson is going to pick as his V.P. (J.C. Watts) from a previous post. He could easily win the nomination with his 4% national showing. HA!HA!HA!
January 13th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
Wondering what will happen to these national polls after MI (if McCain loses). If he loses MI he’s very vulnerable in SC. Romney will also take Nevada (no penalization of delegate like all the pre-Feb 5th primaries because it’s a caucus),
Everyone’s in striking distance (except Fred).
January 13th, 2008 at 5:38 pm
what is the deal with nevada. is the gop even going to try for nevada?
January 13th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
4- I know Mitt, Rudy, and McCain will be competitive. Now, if any of them go there I’ll be surprised.
January 13th, 2008 at 5:40 pm
PS. ARG polls generally stink (if anything, they’ve always had a pro-McCain bias).
And I think Cole’s sarcasm above is over the top. I made my comment about Fred not being in striking distance before I saw his comment. Sorry if it seemed like piling on.
January 13th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
Nevada is likely going for Mitt. That’s why the national media is ignoring it completely.
This is even though it has more delegates up for grabs (34) than either MI (30) or SC (24)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Republican_presidential_primaries
Mitt got more delegates out of WY than McCain got out of NH . . . but you couldn’t tell that from the media coverage.
I’m starting to get a bit paranoid about the media coverage.
January 13th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
I think Mitt should go to NV a time or two after MI. His presence there would help draw attention to the state and make it more meaningful to people if/when he wins there on Jan 19th. By Mitt picking up more delegates in NV than anyone gets out of SC on the same day (both are on the 19th) could help make him still a story of the day even if he comes in 2nd or 3rd in SC.
January 13th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
I know Giuliani has received a lot of endorsements from Nevada, how competitive will he be?
January 13th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
Hello-
Nevada is not going to matter on the Republican side, unlike the Democratic side. The main difference being that on the Republican side, the SC primary is the same day - Jan 19. In contrast, the Dem SC primary will be on Jan 26, a week later.
January 13th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
“I’m starting to get a bit paranoid about the media coverage.” That’s one thing you got right. I think the reason the media didn’t cover WY is because it wasn’t a popular vote.
January 13th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
ENHQ,
Yup. That’s it.
Jeff,
The media won’t cover it because it’s not a fair contest. Romney bought Nevada and Wyoming months ago. Most candidates have completely ignored the state. Why would newspapers waste their resources sending reporters to a pre-ordained event instead of a primary that really matters (like SC)? That’s it. Nothing more, nothing less. There’s no anti-Mitt bias. If Romney wins MI, the press will play it up to the hilt.
January 13th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
Nice spin #10 McCain guy . . .
Is that the official mantra of the Mainstream Media that McCain’s team is dictating behind the scenes?
Why will more delegates up for grabs in a swing state (NV) inherently relatively without value and merit just because it’s on the same day as SC?
Sounds like a conspiracy to me! (there go the voices again)
January 13th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
Here are the results among Republicans likely to vote in a GOP primary or caucus:
John McCain 23%
Rudy Giuliani 20%
Mike Huckabee 19%
Mitt Romney 18%
January 13th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
Whoa . . . that sentence didn’t come out right:
Why will a swing state (NV) with more total delegates up for grabs be relatively without value and merit just because it’s on the same day as SC?
That’s not a great sentence, but I believe it’s at least grammatically correct.
January 13th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
Aron, is #14 national?