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Looking at the latest Michigan polls, we can clearly see a difference based on what percentage of the electorate the pollster believes will be non-Republicans:
There’s a fairly clear trend line there, with the exception of the Mason-Dixon poll at the end — but generally speaking, the higher the projected Republican turnout, the better Romney does.
Historically, this is a hard call to make — in 2000, for example, just 48% of the Michigan primary voters were Republicans, with an uncontested Democrat primary. That was a result of a large state-wide effort by the Democrats, however, to make Bush lose in order to get back at their massively unpopular GOP Governor who had endorsed W. In 1996, with another uncontested Dem primary, though, Republican turnout was 63%. With a semi-contested Democrat primary this time around, it’s hard to say what percentage of cross-over there will be. My guess would be at least the 63% level of GOP voters, which bodes well for Romney.
Additionally, the weather report is calling for snow across the state tomorrow, which may depress Democrat cross-over turnout.
Polls open tomorrow at 7:00 am Eastern time and close at 8:00 pm Eastern time.
January 14th, 2008 at 6:31 pm
BEWARE….
The RETURN of the ROMNEY!!!!
Run for your lives!!!
Rated: AWESOME!!
January 14th, 2008 at 6:33 pm
snow snow snow snow snow!!!
January 14th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
Jason #2
For some reason I am picturing Bing Crosby, Danny Kaye, Rosemary Clooney and Vera Ellen on a train to Vermont with that post
January 14th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
Mitt now second in latest California poll, and tied with the mainstream boys in Florida. Again, this underscores
that he does not have to win Michigan to continue fighting….the dollars and support are sustaining themselves!
January 14th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Matt C,
One thing you didn’t address is that the media have played up this contest to be more important and decisive this year than in years’ past. That may well increase Independent turnout.
January 14th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
“Democrat cross-over turnout.”
Read: Mitt’s voting bloc
Let’s hope so!
January 14th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
cj # 3,
White Christmas is one of my favorites!
Wait a second I disavow any knowledge of any musicals……
January 14th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
Hmm.. intrade is moving against Romney. It’s now 54 to 35 (in Mccain’s favor). This despite the fact that hardly any new polls have come out.
January 14th, 2008 at 6:53 pm
intrade always moves against romney the day before voting. happened in NH, IA so not surprised here.
Although I too wonder what is causing it.
January 14th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
I have already stated that Mitt will win if the Republican turn out is 70% or greater. If it’s in the 65=70% range, I think it’s anybody’s game. If republicans make up under 65% of the voters, McCain will win. However, the republican establishment has really been pushing turnout this year by their constituents because they were embarassed in 2000, and they have not forgotten it. The republicans pushed a huge early voter program this year, and one of the polls that actually tracked it said that Romney outdid McCain 3-to-1 in early votes, which they estimated at 9% of the toal expected turnout. I don’t think that the polls factor this in either.
The important thing to note is that the democrats are pushing their own to vote in the democratic primary – something that didn’t happen in 2000.) I think the deomcratic cross-over will be very limited, and I expect that some indepdents will still vote democratically because they like Obama and Edwards and will voted “uncommited”. This isn’t 2000 when the dems and indies orchestrated a huge coup to try take out Bush. There’s a big difference.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:04 pm
Just some profit takers on Mitt buyers that got in at 10-15 last week, I would guess.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:04 pm
Intrade didn’t get the Clinton/Obama thing right, did they?
January 14th, 2008 at 7:05 pm
On #12 – fair point. Just saying.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:08 pm
The polls are definitely showing a trend, which is indicative of a surge. It was happening in NH as well, though it was a couple of days too late.
With a win in Michigan, and if he wins Nevada as well, which you would have to say is likely, Romney will be able to stand on having won 3 of the first 5 states heading into Florida. He could be the only one with any true momentum with Huckabee all but finished.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:13 pm
Is it appropriate to pray for a blizzard?
January 14th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
I agree wholeheartedly, Bwett. A win in Michigan would allow Romney to spend a full day this week in Nevada to shore up support for te Saturday Caucus. He should spend Wednesday and Friday in SC and take a day off to be in Nevada on Thursday. A 1st place finish in Nevada and a possible 2nd place finish in SC would set him up nicely for Florida, where things look to be tied.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:15 pm
Not only pray for one, but fast as well.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:17 pm
Illinois Guy,
As long as it is for the moisture.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:19 pm
Why do people think Romney will win Nevada. I haven’t seen a poll there showing him in the lead in many months. Yes, he could win, but I don’t think he’s a front runner.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:20 pm
I dunno what Mitt’s turnout organization is like in Michigan, but I suspect it’s better then McCain’s. Mitt’s been beset by unseasonably good weather during the first two primaries. It’s unclear how much of an organizational advantage he has in a situation where organization is actually paramount- in a situation where voters would rather not go to the polls. If it snows significantly, my guess is Republicans will make up a solid 70-80% of primary voters. If it doesn’t, they’ll make up 55-70%. Given that the Kos business doesn’t seem to be reflected in polls, I suspect the first scenario is significantly better for Romney.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:23 pm
From Ambiner:
“It’s supposed to snow all over Michigan tomorrow. Not a major storm—just accumulations of a couple of inches. But it may be good for Romney: He’s doing better among people who already have sent in absentee ballots than among late deciders, who may be breaking for McCain. Also, his stronghold is the metro Detroit area; in Grand Rapids and other outstate areas, where the weather often is more severe and the areas more rural, McCain and Huckabee do well. Finally, Michigan has an open primary, meaning that McCain could benefit from Democrats who cross over—but in crummy weather, only the most motivated Democrats will turn out.
In 1990, bad weather helped elect John Engler as governor—he was an upset winner, and almost certainly benefited from a low turnout.”
That seems like a first rate analysis to me, especially the noted difference between rural and metro turnout during bad weather.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:26 pm
I can make no prediction as far as results for tomorrow, but I really think a loss for McCain tomorrow would put a huge set of brakes on McCain’s campaign. I think people would begin to question whether he can really pull out the nomination if he can’t even win in a state where many of the dems/indies will be voting in the GOP. If he can’t win there, then how can he win in all the rest of the states that have closed primaries?
I think people will take a second look at McCain and realize that he is just not a true conservative option for the GOP base. And people are already coming to terms with the fact that Huckabee cannot win without his Evangelicals, and now they will realize that McCain cannot win without his Independents. The fact that Romney is still hanging in there despite the recent hijackings of these two groups says a lot about his more broad appeal.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:26 pm
There is large population base of Mormons in Nevada. About 170,000 to be exact. I have no clue whether that will make a difference or not.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:26 pm
about the weather, daytime high to be 32 degrees with snow in Detroit. Much worse I betting as you go to the northern area. Another factor to consider when weather plays a role will be absentee ballots. I heard someone here say Romney was doing well with those as well. Can anyone comment on that.
I agree with Greg, MI should be enough to win NV (although a close 2nd might be enough anyway), and he might be able to make some ground in SC. If McCain wins SC, Huck and Fred might well be done. McCain and Romney would head to Florida 1-2 in the race, and fight it out for Super Tuesday. A lot is riding on MI. Dems will not turnout in huge numbers with horrible weather, and I dont think McCain beat Romney huge among them anyway with them plotting to prop him up.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:27 pm
I do not agree with Ambinders assertion that late decders may be breaking for McCain. The polls all show upward movement by Romney in the last few days. That would indicated that late deciders have been going towards Romney. McCain was up by 5-10% in most polls late last week.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
Rush, Hewitt, Levin, Ingram, and most conservative radio continue to lambast Romney. Levin told his audience to vote for Romney. Not an endorsement but it might as well be. That should also matter a little. And a little is what this contest needs right now.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
Fyi – talked to Steve Mitchell who runs Mitchell research, the most accurate polling firm in Michigan over the last 4 presidential elections. He says that, contrary to popular opinion, Republicans made up 65% of the vote in 2000, and he expects that to be higher this year.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:32 pm
#26, Husky, don’t you mean they are promoting Romney?
Lambast (sic, really lambaste) means to beat severely.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:33 pm
husky, one the recent polls (maybe Mason-Dixon) indicated that 9% of their respondents had voted early, and they were 3-to-1 in favor of Romney. In a poll of 500, people that’s only a sample of 45 early voters, so I do not know what the relevance might be. Romney’s people on the ground in Michigan have been there for a while, and they have reportedly been getting the older folks to sen in absentte ballots because of weather/illness concerns. I think the enite GOP establishment has been pushing the republicans to vote early to avoid the embarassment of 200, when they feel that non-republicans hijacked their race.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:33 pm
26. Hewitt is lambasting Romney??
January 14th, 2008 at 7:34 pm
Husky#26
I dont think you mean that Rush et al are lambasting Romney. Pretty sure Rush and laura today lambasted McCain and Huck, but I could be wrong
January 14th, 2008 at 7:35 pm
Jason, higher than 65% bodes well for Romney. The polls seem to indicate that 70% or close to it is the magic number for Romney.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:35 pm
Quick look at detnews.com homepage, they are plugging Romney big time. They are quoting people who switched from Huck.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
McCain: I am your father
Romney: No, that’s not true!
McCain: Search your feelings, you know it to be true!
Romney: No!
McCain: Join the dark side with me, it is the only way we can defeat the emporer Clinton.
Romney: I’ll never join you!!!!!
RETURN OF THE ROMNEY!!! He may have lost his hand in NH, but now he’s ready to become a true Jedi!
Yoda: You must defeat McCain, it is the only way. Win, you must or go home, you will.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:39 pm
If it was 65% in 2000, when the deomcratic primary was completely uncontested, it will be over 70% republican thistime. This all assumes that the 65% number is correct.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:40 pm
The fewer people who vote in the mitten state, the better it is for Romney. So many of you are hoping for foul weather. Nice.
And you guys actually think Mittens can win the general? I’m afraid you Romney folk seem pretty delusional.
If Willard fails to even win in his home state, what then? It’ll be spun as a win either way by his diehard cheering section, won’t it?
January 14th, 2008 at 7:41 pm
#29, you are right on the 9% and 3-1 figures with the MasonDixon Poll.
Nice strategy from the ROmney folks. The older crowd most likely have good vibes about Mitts Dad.
Weather has been a factor in all these primaries, maybe this time it will work in favour of Romney
January 14th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
#24, I think you may well be right, Romney and McCain on super Tuesday.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
Psyche-
if Mitt fails to win his home state it will be because of Independents and Democrats who vote against Mittens and for the more liberal McCain
January 14th, 2008 at 7:50 pm
Hey psycho,
The spin is that Romney will say he won the Republican primary, and McCain won the democratic primary. There’s your spin. I have to admitt, it looks like McCain would have been successful running for president in either party since he is anti-bush, pro-life, pro-environment, a soldier, yet a pusher of liberal bills, and who cares what else. I guess this guy doesn’t really fit in either party, does he? Well, it will be interesting to see if Republicans and then the nation decide to elect an old man with a temper problem.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:50 pm
lam·baste: [lam-beyst, -bast] –verb (used with object),
1. to beat or whip severely.
2. to reprimand or berate harshly; censure; excoriate.
A more appropriate word may have been “fluff” if you mean they’ve been trying to prop him up.
Also appropriate to use this term in the following manner:
The mainstream media seems to enjoy “fluffing” McCain’s once sagging campaign.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
New Nevada poll. http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5j2L6vV2jPeg6amOnwoYEppQx4xigD8U5UUN02
January 14th, 2008 at 8:00 pm
The McCain strategy for winning…whore yourself out to the democrats.
McCain is “guardedly optimistic” about his chances in Tuesday’s primary, citing the large turnout in his town hall meetings. He called on independentts to cross over and vote for him. “Libertarians, vegetarians, agnostics – whoever it is that’s registered,” he said.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:01 pm
For everyone saying that the media is propping up McCain, remember now that the right-wing machine is doing everything it can to tear him down. Sloth Limbaugh had one of his stupid parodies on his radio show today criticizing McCain in typical Limbaugh fashion. The Washington Times, right on cue, posted an editorial blasting McCain. Shrill Laura Ingraham was yipping away as she usually does. So it’s not as if the Right isn’t getting it’s (sometimes justified and sometimes irrational) hatred of McCain across.
Keep in mind that Mitt suffered two humiliating defeats in states his supporters assured us were sewn up months ago. This after dumping tens of millions of dollars all for naught. If McCain had stated that his plan was to win big in IA and NH and keep up short in both contests, what do you think Limbaugh and Hannity and Ingraham and their ilk would be saying? I think we all know the answer to that.
So forgive me for not joining in the “This is so unfair that the liberal media is propping up McCain” chorus.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:02 pm
err….”and keep up short” should read “and CAME up short”
January 14th, 2008 at 8:03 pm
#25– conservative radio continues to rail against McCain, not Romney. A flip flop from me… Sorry.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:04 pm
I’m really confused. From three different sources now I’ve heard that Republicans made up 40%, 48%, and now 65% (which is what this mitchell guy is saying) of the electorate in 2000. If we can’t even figure out what happened in 2000, we really have no idea what’s going to happen tomorrow.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:05 pm
Psycheout
The reason some are hoping for bad weather is because Dems and Liberals will be less likely to go out and screw up the REPUBLICAN primary. Do you watch the news or read at all?
January 14th, 2008 at 8:05 pm
I did some calulations based on the followingf assumptions:
1.) 9% of the vote was early, and Mitt bet McCain 3-to-1 (Mitt got 6 of the 9%, and McCain got 2%)
2.) Republicans favor Mitt 33%-26% pver McCain.
3.) Non-republicans favor McCain 50%-25% over Mitt
In this scenario, Mitt wins if the republicans make up 66.6% of the GOP vote. Anything less, and the primary swings to McCain. I have no clue about #3 in my assumptions. Will McCain get that kind of boost? In New Hampshire, where Mitt lost 40-27% with the indies to McCain. If the same 40-27 split exists in Michigan, Mitt would win all the way down to a 58% participation rate by republican voters. It is encouraging.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:06 pm
On #49. The absentee vote is likely to be predominantly republican.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:07 pm
I’ve been reading the website for a while now, and have a question for everyone…
I live in MI, am voting tomorrow, and have to decide who to vote for.
My current rankings are
1 Thompson
2 Guiliani
3 Romeny
4 Huckabee or McCain
Since Guiliani and Thompson are pretty much out of it in MI, should I vote for Romney b/c I consider him better than the first two “front runners” and it would give a better chance for Thompson in SC and Guiliani if FL.
Or do I vote for Thompson?
ideas?
January 14th, 2008 at 8:08 pm
On #51. Interesting question. If your top three are all basically the same in your mind and then there’s a big jump, vote Romney. But if you really like Fred vote for him. Maybe Fred does unexpectedly well in MI and gets a boast in SC.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:09 pm
Oh for context, I’m a McCain supporter.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:11 pm
SteveJ: Just my opinion, but I would place the vote where it would do the most good for you favorite candidate. A McCain/Huckabee loss in Michigan is the biggest thing that can help Thompson in South Carolina. Romney is not going to win South Carolina regardless of what happens in Michigan.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
If McCain wins Michigan, he is probably unstoppable in South Carolina.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:13 pm
Greg,
“If the same 40-27 split exists in Michigan, Mitt would win all the way down to a 58% participation rate by republican voters. It is encouraging.”
But it’s my understanding that in NH, only Independents and Republicans could vfote in the GOP primary. In MI, those numbers will be different if Independents and Republicans are included .
January 14th, 2008 at 8:13 pm
#51
I echo ajay. But for Fred to have a good chance in SC you need MCCain momentum slowed or destroyed.
A win in MI and MCCain gets huge MO and will take SC.
So with SC being Freds firewall I would say a lessened McCain is in your ultimate best interest as a Fred guy-
so vote Romney tomorrow
January 14th, 2008 at 8:14 pm
somehow it got erased.
I’ll try again.
But it’s my understanding that in NH, only Independents and Republicans could vfote in the GOP primary. In MI, those numbers will be different if Independents and Republicans are included WITH DEMOCRATS.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:14 pm
SteveJ, if you are really a MI voter, you go with Romney. I get that you like Fred, but he wrote off MI from day 1. If it were the general, than I think you cast a vote for your guy whomever that may be. But since McCain or Romney are 99.9% sure of winning MI, you should pick who you like between the 2 of them. As times goes on and candidates drop out, I bet (as Romney is) that conservatives will rally around the conservative -Romney!
That will begin tomorrow in MI where the GOP is supporting Romney by a healthy margin. I love that McCain continues to run like he did unsuccessfully in 2000. He is this maverick anti establishment who cant win in closed primaries when it counts. Not when he is out there stumping amnesty and global warming. Thats a loser message.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:15 pm
Adam, your post confuses me. Did you mean democrats?
January 14th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
Okay, I see. I think Romney will do okay among the dems and indies portion of the GOP vote because he is from Michigan. Still, things look good for Romney in my analysis.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:19 pm
McCain must be stopped or the Republican party is finished. McCain does not govern as a conservative
(or even close) He will not win the general, but if by some chance he did do you think there would be fewer deals with the Dems than there is now? There is very little difference between McCain, Hillary or Obama. LOOK AT HIS RECORD
Thompson, Romney or Giuliani take your pick anyone would be better unless you want the government in your back pocket
January 14th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
SteveJ – if you like Thompson or Giuliani, you need McCain to go down, so vote for Romney, no question. Thompson/Giuliani aren’t expected to do anything in Michigan, so you’ve got to focus on getting McCain out.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
I tend to like Fred a bit more than Romney, but I agree that slowing McCain down is necessary if Fred’s got any chance.
The only thing that would be better, is if Fred got a little momentum from MI (which I realize isn’t going to happen).
This seems to be the election where I’d like to take part of each candidate.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:22 pm
about these exit polls. Can we at least agree that exit polls are not scripture and are not always fact. 2000 NH primary exit polls differ as CNN tells us that Bush beat McCain by 3% among the GOP, and others say McCain won among the GOP.
The same exists today. I think as the Romney camp suggests that Romney won in NH among GOP voters but lost by 5% because of the indy vote. Some polls indicate otherwise. But clearly McCains campaign is propped up by non GOP voters and the MSM. Shouldnt that tell us something.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:24 pm
For those who dont normally watch the Clinton News Network (CNN)-
Mitt on Larry King tonight at 8pm central *45 minutes from now*
January 14th, 2008 at 8:30 pm
HAVENT WE LEARNED…
Im so tired of people looking at general election polls today and drawing some conclusions. We cant do that. This race changes like the weather.
Do we not remember… polls months ago told us that Mitt would win IA, NH, and MI. McCain was dead and should drop out. Rudy was running away with this thing and looked unbeatable. Mike Huckawho? Fred Thompson would rise to challenge mighty Rudy.
Fast forward to today and nothing is what the polls told us. The same will be true in 5 months. So save your “Romney cant win the general” crap. Nobody knows what might happen. Look at Kerry, Dole, Dukakis, and others. They were elected because *THEY COULD WIN, THEY ARE ELECTABLE*. That wasnt the case. We need to vote for whomever campains better, is right on the positions, can raise money, has survived the vetting process of the primary, and represents our party the best. We might disagree with who that is, but enough of the general election polls crap. PLEASE
January 14th, 2008 at 8:30 pm
I just saw the newest Giuliani commercial on TV, and it says something like Giuliani has delivered more tax cuts than the other Republican candidates combined. Well, I realized what an easy claim that is to make when Huckabee’s tax increases are combined with the rest. Really, anybody but Huckabee could make that claim, couldn’t they?
January 14th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
#49 Greg-
One observation, although I think that your estimates are well-thought out…
Let’s assume for the purpose of this discussion that Mitt won the early voting 3-1 over McCain (and exclude Huck for simplicity of math). Here’s the problem. The 9% that you used (or any percentage that you plug in) cannot be verified in advance, b/c we cannot estimate, w/ any element of certainty how many voters will show up under these very unique circumstances.
To illustrate:
Let’s say 1,000 early ballots were cast, all Rs (regardless of who cast them). 750 Mitt, 250 McCain. If it snows heavily in Michigan, and turnout is low, that 1,000 becomes a lot more significant than it would be if it’s bright and sunny and turnout is high…
An open question on whether early voting is counted…
I do not know whether it is. I am going to try to find out, from the various polling sites, whether it is. Without hard evidence, here is why I think that early voting IS factored into public polling results:
While early voting is new, absentee balloting has been around forever.
The purpose of the poll is to measure support as accurately as possible. Absentee ballots have always been a small part of the pie, but it would seem to me that for that reason, pollsters have figured out how to account for it.
There is no appreciable difference between early voting and absentee voting. If it would materially affect the outcome, pollsters should factor it in, somehow.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:39 pm
I just saw the newest Giuliani commercial on TV, and it says something like Giuliani has delivered more tax cuts than the other Republican candidates combined. Well, I realized what an easy claim that is to make when Huckabee’s tax increases are combined with the rest. Really, anybody but Huckabee could make that claim, couldn’t they?
LOL. I saw that commercial, too. The others didn’t even cut anything, so it is a little manipulative. Huckabee raised hope by 47% and Romney raised hope across Massachusetts in the form of fees. McCain voted against the last round of hope cuts.
So Rudy’s our only tax-slasher.
Still a fair point!
January 14th, 2008 at 8:40 pm
Rudy’s our only hope-slasher**
Sorry for the confusion; don’t wanna Huck up my terminology.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
Well my friends, I think I have now heard it all. That TLG has adopted the proper term for tax as ‘hope’ illustrates that the Huckucation of the voters is effective and cannot be stopped. Afterall, there is always room for more hope in our society.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Its interesting how many “home states” Mitt Romney has.
- He’s been elected Governor in MA.
- He has a holiday home in NH (where many commute to MA anyway)
- He was brought up in MI
- He is one of Utah’s own.
Thats not bad going. Most politicians can only claim two homes at the most (FDT – Tennessee & Virginia, Rudy – New York & retired NY in Florida, McCain – Arizona & Washington DC, Huckabee – Arkansas & Evangelica)
January 14th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
Meanwhile, on the Dem side…
Obama continues to fight the battle – the Audacity of Taxes
January 14th, 2008 at 8:50 pm
#51 – Steve – vote Romney. For the same reasons as #53 & #57.
Have a great day tomorrow!
By the way, where do you live in MI? I’m from Northern Indiana (Warsaw & Elkhart, different times).
One of my good friends from college transferred to Hope College in Holland, MI and I have some very fond memories of visiting her and her friends up there.
It’s absolutely beautiful during tulip season!
My brother in law thinks Michigan is one of the most beautiful states in the Union.
From Beth, a Romney supporter (Fred’s #2, Guiliani is a close #2)
January 14th, 2008 at 8:53 pm
Steve, If you want Thompson to win, then he needs to win South Carolina. His big threat in this state is Huckabee & McCain.
I agree with the others, a McCain win in MI will give him big momentum heading into SC, and potentially take votes from Thompson there. Ditto a Huckabee outperformance.
Of course, you could cross over to the Dem vote & add to the “uncommitted”s that bring down Hillary Clinton
January 14th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
I’m pretty close to being convinced. I live in Grand Rapids. Attended Calvin, so I root against Hope many times. Grew up in Northwest Indiana though.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:57 pm
mitt on CNN in 5 minutes.
enjoy!
January 14th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
#76 True! “Uncommitted” was very tempting. If the Republican side was a little more stable, I might have. (Although, then the democrats have my address.)
January 14th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
New poll in FL shows Rudy 2% behind JMac. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9fe5ac18-795a-4e1c-aebd-6e0b3b821bf1
January 14th, 2008 at 9:09 pm
#73 JayPe-
Well put. Although remember that John F. Kerry had (and I assume still has) no fewer than five residences (as opposed to hometowns).
January 14th, 2008 at 9:10 pm
You know it’s gotten to the point where I am almost 100% certain the Democrats will win this election. It makes me almost want to root for Romney because I would much prefer to see him get toasted by Obama than McCain, Rudy or Thompson.
January 14th, 2008 at 9:11 pm
Mitt Economics BAD for Michigan
http://www.spectator.org/dsp_article.asp?art_id=12568
January 14th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
#51… vote for Huck or Romney… slow McCain’s momentum and keep the race alive for all the candidates.
January 14th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
SteveJ, don’t listen to these Mittbots trying to spin you into voting for Romney. You know what helps Fred? Votes for Fred.
If you prefer Thompson, by all means vote for him. Vote for Romney only if you prefer Romney, not because the Mittbots are telling you to do it for Fred. That’s just ridiculous.
Vote for your favorite candidate. That’s what I’d do.
January 14th, 2008 at 9:22 pm
I appreciate your purity Psycheout. But I would vote strategically, but that’s just me. In fact, I am considering a vote or abstainment in the general for the Dem if Huck or Rudy are the nominee, just because I think 4 years of Hillary would actually help the GOP whereas Huck and Rudy would likely destroy it (although in different ways).
January 14th, 2008 at 9:24 pm
People shouldn’t vote based on the polls. They should vote based on their preference.
January 14th, 2008 at 9:26 pm
#85 That’s really the dilemma: Vote for your favorite candidate and give him a whopping 5%. Or vote for your 3rd favorite candidate in the hopes it helps stop #4 and #5 in the short run and helps #1 and #2 in the long run.
January 14th, 2008 at 9:29 pm
Here’s to Michigan! Let’s hear it for a state that has been going downhill since John Engler left office! This is a state that is ruled by the Detroit inner city….a state where the residents have been heading to the exits at warp speed….Where Jennifer Granholm can get elected Governor without getting laughed out of the campaign. And this is the state where we have to rest our hopes that McCain gets stopped, despite every Democrat in the state able to vote for the most left wing Republican candidate and keep a real Republican from getting the states delegates and momentum. And so, it has come to this!
January 14th, 2008 at 9:30 pm
Psycheout
Does that go for all the Dem cross-over McCain is hoping for?
January 14th, 2008 at 9:32 pm
jcutler # 34,
I was going for more of a Horror, B-film feel with….
The RETURN of the ROMNEY—
But hey I like Star Wars as much as the next guy…..
And so I say to Mitt….”May the VOTES be with you”…..
January 14th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
Perhaps this might shed some light on the whole turnout model question-
From the experts at Pollster.com:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/michigan_endgame.php
Key quotes:
“McCain and Romney on the other hand are neck and neck and the polling variation is so large there is no way to declare either a leader…
The bottom right panel of the chart shows clearly how uncertain the top two spots in Michigan are. The blue Romney dots mix in with the red McCain dots, overlapping so much that there is clearly no reason to think one is ahead of the other. Even some Huckabee results are within the range of Romney and McCain support.”
January 14th, 2008 at 9:39 pm
WE’RE THE WORKERS HERE IN MICHIGAN TRYING TO KEEP OUR JOBS THAT WILL PAY THE PRICE FOR A MCCAIN/HUCKABEE NOMINATION–…OBVIOUSLY NOT THE REST OF YOU YAHOO LIBERALS….
GERIATRIC McCAIN AND POPULIST HUCKABEE ARE DEMOCRATIC/INDIE LIBERAL PAWNS and will run our ECONOMY HERE IN MICHIGAN, and throughout the rest of the country for that matter, INTO THE GROUND!!! (As well as everything else we conservative Republicans — AND INTELLIGENT MICHIGAN VOTERS /AMERICANS—-stand for!!)
Read what Rush Limbaugh (a TRUE CONSERVATIVE) had to say about these two liberal plants today at rushlimbaugh.com.
I just did, and WOW!! Thank goodness there are still people like Rush who actually display a wealth of intelligence and logical thinking in this day of shallow, one-dimensional politics and thought….
There are enough of us TRUE REAGAN REPUBLICANS out here in Michigan and across America that have enough COMMON SENSE and care enough what happens to our ECONOMY (among a lot of other issues like lower taxes, strong trade, strong immigration policies, strong national defense, strong families, conservative judges, generating jobs, etc., etc.) to vote for a candidate that espouses TRUE REAGAN CONSERVATIVE policies (which ARE NOT DEAD!!)!
Michigan, wake up!! I’ve personally listened to all the candidates (REP & DEM!), evaluated what they’ve said, and have determined that WITHOUT A DOUBT, that candidate is MITT ROMNEY!! ROMNEY is the ONLY candidate that can go the distance against these other liberal monkeys and that HAS and CAN make the CHANGES that our country (AND OUR ECONOMY HERE IN MICHIGAN!!) so desperately needs at this time.
I will vote for Hillary or Obama before I will vote for liberal snakes like McCain or Huckabee….. After all, what’s the difference between any of these four Socialists??
January 14th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
Frank – You are completely right.
January 14th, 2008 at 9:44 pm
93, Frank you got good potential there for parody, but I think people would feel more like reading you post if you didn’t capitalize so much. I know that hurts the parody effect a little, but you could still do pretty good.
January 14th, 2008 at 9:49 pm
Once again I disagree with John/mark.
parody would be a Huckabee/McCain ticket
January 14th, 2008 at 9:56 pm
96, He’s either trying to do parody or he’s totally lost controll. I sense he may be doing parody, but maybe you’re right an dhe lost controll. Randomly using caps, statements like: “Thank goodness there are still people like Rush who actually display a wealth of intelligence and logical thinking in this day of shallow, one-dimensional politics and thought….”, and it just overall has the feel of a rant. Its interesting that a RomBot would even want to claim something like this as legitamately coming from their side. This is either making fun of you as a RomBot or its giving reason to make fun of you as RomBots.
January 14th, 2008 at 9:58 pm
The election has gotten so much over heated rhetoric, and seemingly irrational though that at times it has been hard to tell parody apart from just pure BotDom.
January 14th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
John I believe the reason it has been “so much over heated rhetoric” is because it is a fight for the future of the Republican party.
January 14th, 2008 at 10:07 pm
Maybe so, but there has been parody out there and the above post strikes me as parody it happens to be very poorly put together if its not parody.
January 14th, 2008 at 10:15 pm
John Mark is right. Romney supporters aren’t that delusional and unhinged, are they?
January 14th, 2008 at 10:19 pm
CNN is doing their pre-primary coverage this evening, and they keep saying that McCain is ahead in the polls. That is really irritating me. As the evening has progressed their coverage has become more fair; however earlier on their coverage was slanted favorably towards McCain. Larry King did a nice interview with Mitt, and I think Mitt came across very well. The newcasters do keep repeating that Mitt’s strength is the economy, and that is helpful.
January 14th, 2008 at 10:31 pm
#52 Very well done.
January 14th, 2008 at 10:31 pm
#52 Very well done. I appreciate this kind of thinking and honesty.
January 14th, 2008 at 10:45 pm
Egads, sorry for the double posting. Here in this part of Indiana a lot of our jobs are tied to the automotive industry. There is a lot at stake for us, too. No wonder the people in Michigan are pulling for Mitt.
January 14th, 2008 at 10:46 pm
McCain seems scared today – he is playing even dirtier than usual.
January 14th, 2008 at 10:46 pm
SteveJ,
I’m a little bit of a strategic voter, my brother is immensely. I’m a Romney supporter, btw. I personally have a very hard time voting for someone who isn’t my guy unless they are extremely far down. My brother would say on the other hand, that media perception is everything. Has Rudy suffered for coming in near the bottom in Iowa? Is Fred a loser for being last or near it in Iowa and New Hampshire? Romney’s campaign is on “life support” despite winning Wyoming and coming in second in the other two contests. My take is that Fred won’t suffer ill effects at all wherever he places. For your guy, and frankly every single one of them, McCain’s momentum needs to be stopped. He got an incredible bounce out of N.H. and another win on top of that… he’ll be unstoppable. For what it is worth, early voting started today in Florida and I’ve decided to be a strategic voter and wait in case a scenario arises where I have to vote to “stop McCain” and Romney isn’t there (slim chance, but still).
January 14th, 2008 at 11:10 pm
SteveJ,
I’m a Romney supporter, so take this with a grain of salt; if McCain wins Michigan by less then 5 points (and the final result is almost certain to be within that margin), he’s the nominee.
That margin keeps Romney alive in South Carolina, and thus deprives Thompson of the supporters might bleed (I suspect Romney guys overwhelmingly have Thompson as their second choice) and it gives McCain more then enough momentum to hold off any last minute Thompson surge in South Carolina. As others have said, Thompson either wants a close victory from Romney, or a blowout win by McCain. In the first scenario, McCain’s momentum is halted, but probably doesn’t gain enough to make much headway in SC. Thompson still has a hard hoe there, but his path is much smoother.
If McCain blows Romney out, Mitt’s support evaporates, and probably alot goes to Thompson, given that he’s the only one outside of McCain with any momentum in the state (and Mitt supporters are unlikely to default to McCain after two bruising primary contests in a row). But, McCain won’t blow Romney out. Not a chance in the world.
So again, the best realistic outcome that could come from tomorrow for Fred Thompson supporters, is a close Romney victory. The stars seem to be aligning to make that a very distinct possibility. And voting for Romney is the best option for these sort of supporters, who also like Romney well enough, and dislike Huck and McCain. It seems like a no-brainer to me, but then again, I’m biased and alot more pragmatic then some. I’m more then willing to engage in strategic voting.
January 15th, 2008 at 9:42 am
John Mark is right. Romney supporters aren’t that delusional and unhinged, are they?
Just me. Actually if Thompson’s new energy and verve continues, I’m indifferent between the two of them.
January 15th, 2008 at 11:46 am
If you want Thompson to surge in SC… vote for Mitt in Mich. We MUST stop McCain dead in his tracks. We do not want McCain to be the nominee. Go ahead and theorize the campaign and make it historic of which media pundits would forever try to figure out what went ‘wrong’! There’s always first time for everything… apparently the Media is trying to decide for us.
Vote for Mitt if you want Thompson to do better!