GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Mitchell Interactive Michigan Primary
- Mitt Romney 29%
- John McCain 27%
- Mike Huckabee 12%
- Rudy Guiliani 7%
- Ron Paul 7%
- Fred Thompson 4%
- Duncan Hunter 2%
The survey of 582 likely Republican Presidential Primary voters was conducted January 10, 12 and 13, 2008. The survey has a margin of error of +-4.1% at the 95% level of confidence.
Steve Mitchell has been the most accurate pollster in Michigan in the last four presidential campaigns. Polling for the Detroit News in the 2000 MI GOP Primary, his final polling correctly had John McCain winning over George W. Bush. Polling again for the Detroit News in the 2004 MI Dem Primary, his final polling correctly showed the top four candidates in the order they finished and had John Kerry at 52%, his final margin.
In the 2000 General Election, his final poll had Gore leading by 5% in Michigan, he won by 5%. In the 2004 General Election, his final polling had Kerry leading by 2% in Michigan, he won by 3%. In his final national poll for WDIV-TV in Detroit, he had Bush winning by 4%, he won by 3%.
January 14th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
YES!!!!!!
January 14th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
Interesting sidenote from this poll: “As the undecided voters make up their minds, more are turning to Mitt Romney than to John McCain. We have also seen the participation among Republicans increase from 62% last night to 75% at the end of phoning tonight. That means that 75% of the voters taking part in the GOP Primary identify themselves as Republicans,� Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Interactive said.
January 14th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
Non McCain voters need to vote for Mitt to stop the McCain train. It would only give a little justice to a system that allows huge numbers of democrats to cross over.
January 14th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
GO MITT!!!!
I will be calling folks in Michigan (from my home in California) today for Mitt!!!
January 14th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
Nice to see Huck slipping. One wonders if Fred had run some ads if he could have squeezed out fourth.
January 14th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
BTW, Rush is having a lot of fun with the Democrat contest today!
Rush is also talking about the travesty of Huckabee and McCain trying to remake the conservative movement in their own images - and try and convince Republicans that the Reagan era is OVER!!!
They are so OVER!!
Go Mitt!! Go Fred!! (my number 2)
January 14th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
Excuse me, meant to say THIRD.
January 14th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
I picked Mitt to win MI in my new year’s eve predictions. It appears I will be 3-0 if Mitt wins tomorrow.
January 14th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Looks like McCain lost a bit of the post-NH bounce. Still though, this is close enough that if some foreign policy news makes the front page between now and tommorow, McCain will win this thing. I’m also skeptical that only 25% of the electorate will be indie, but this guy Mitchell appears to know what he’s talking about.
January 14th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
Beth, can you give us a little feedback on what you encounter wnen calling? If you’d rather not tell everyone, I’ll give you my email.
January 14th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
Note that the Mitchell poll from 3 days ago had McCain at 23 and Romney at 17, so the undecideds are really making a big break here.
January 14th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
BEWARE….
The RETURN of the ROMNEY!!
Run for your lives….
January 14th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
I don’t put much into this as the Democrats not having a contest, are really going to screw things up. I hope it happens this way, but I am not holding my breath.
January 14th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
Each primary state so far has had record voter turnout. Perhaps that will happen in Michigan too, and maybe all the talk of Indies and Dems coming out to vote is spurring Republican voters who normally wouldn’t vote in a primary to come out and vote in bigger numbers.
January 14th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
This still looks like a coin flip given that they’re still within MOE. Should be exciting.
January 14th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Go Mitt! We are behind you!
Sorry McCain, Michigan likes solutions, not under the radar CAFE regulations that would perilize the auto industry!
January 14th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Does this poll include Democrats? What percent of Dem’s is he estimating voting in the Rep. Primary, b/c if he doesnt include Democrat’s then this poll is Useless, b/c ALOT of Democrat’s will be voting tommorow in the Rep. Primary, and they will be voting overwhelmingly for McCain.
January 14th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Mike in Michigan, the dems may show up if it’s a 50 degree day with nice wather, but will they show up in large numbers to vote for a guy that they will not vote for in the general election? I don’t see the motivation.
January 14th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
Again, maybe the early voting and the GOTV efforts will be a determining factor here. You just never know these days. I like the trend that the undecided voters are going heavily to Mitt. That speaks of momentum, and in a close race, that makes the difference. If McCain loses in Michigan, what happens next? Huckabee wins SC? As a Romney guy, that’s fine by me.
January 14th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
Does this poll include Democrats? What percent of Dem’s is he estimating voting in the Rep. Primary, b/c if he doesnt include Democrat’s then this poll is Useless, b/c ALOT of Democrat’s will be voting tommorow in the Rep. Primary, and they will be voting overwhelmingly for McCain.
Good question, from the press release:We have also seen the participation among Republicans increase from 62% last night to 75% at the end of phoning tonight. That means that 75% of the voters taking part in the GOP Primary identify themselves as Republicans.
That is a higher GOP percentage than what Zogby has I think. Mitchell is Michigan based, and has experience with the Michigan primary, so his estimate of participation likely has some validity.
January 14th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
On #19. This sounds like the same song pre-NH. We’ll have to see. i believe voters in iowa and nh never really felt a connection to Mitt so at the end of the day, they didn’t go with him. However, given his ties to Michigan, maybe Romney can overcome that “connection gap” this time around. Plus, lately he’s been a bit more relaxed on the campaign trail.
January 14th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
I’ve spend a little of quality time in the Daily Kos blog and came to learn that their strategy of “Democrats for Mitt” is not working because many of then really fears that Romney can be a serious threat to any democratic candidate, they fears how much money can Romney spend in the general election.
January 14th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
But i still think it will be similiar to 2000 Exit Polls, 51% of voters in the republican primary that year were Republican, and 49% were Dem’s and Indy’s combined, and i still think thats what the final out come will be, therefore giving McCain the primary by about 7 or 8 points.
January 14th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
I would like very much to love any polls showing Mitt ahead. However, to be frankly, the big question here is how to get the samples to accurately reference the state primary. We really have no idea how the voting will go, whether Democrats will flock over to Republican side to vote, remain on their side and vote uncommitted, or just stay home. We have no idea if independents are attracted to Obama/Clinton/Edwards bunch, more than they are to Republican candidates. We have no idea as to the number of evangelicals to expect, after seeing their record attendences in Iowa and NH. The bottom line is, we have no idea on anything, period. So, all polls, however they are, are worthless, period. I wish it is not so, but, until we know what the samples should look like, we will not pin it correctly.
January 14th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
what time do the polls close tomorrow in Michigan?
January 14th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
You know, I think either the dems stay home, or if they do vote, they vote in the democratic primary. I mean, what is the motivation to leave home on a snowy Michigan day to vote for somebody that you will not vote for in the general election. If you are motivated enough to vote, you vote for Clinton or undecided, as urged by the candidates themselves. I just don’t see a ton of democrats coming over to vote in the GOP. Maybe 3-5% of the total will be democrats.
The indies are a different siutation. They should come out in heavy numbers, but McCain’s appeal amont them is not what it used to be. I feel Romney is in decent position as long as the republican turnout at the primary is 70% or higher.
January 14th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
It going to be a 60/40 split if not more with the Rep/Ind(Dem) split.
January 14th, 2008 at 3:19 pm
Greg,
Do you know any Democrats? Democrats would go through sewers on their hands and knees to stick it to the true conservative in the race. Since the MSM believes that McCain would be our strongest candidate in the general, it would make sense for Dems to cross over to vote for Romney, but they don’t think like that. Romney is religious, he’s rich, and his family is out of central casting….that makes him the guy the left wants to humiliate. Having said that, Mitt has a decent chance, and win or lose, he will carry the Republican vote.
January 14th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
Mark my words, about 37% of the vote will be from Indy’s, and 25% will be from Democrat’s, i think that the zogby poll out earlier this morning is spot on b/c it actually polled Republican,Indy’s, and Dem’s
The Polls in Michigan Tomorrow open at 8 AM and will close at 8PM, but that is central time, so you people in the east will have to wait until 9 tommorow night before the returns start to slowly trickle in.
January 14th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
I think a lot of independent, and ever some of the democrat cross over voters will give Mitt a chance to turn Michigan around. My gut feel is that Mitt may get a heavier percentage of those that cross over than we’re projecting on here. Those will have a higher motivation to get out and vote than those doing it for some other motive.
January 14th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
ahhh…poor huckabee, What is this? Michigan voters don’t want the regular joe-smo dolt they work with to be president - they want somebody who actually has experience and aren’t swayed by somebody who wants them to vote for him solely because he thinks they’ll like his personality the best. Why am I not surprised?
January 14th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Romney seems to have all the momentum this time, but with a 2 day head start as opposed to the swell of support in NH where they just ran out of time. Romney’s ties to the state will prove to be the decisive factor I think.
But what’s more interesting still is where does this leave the state of the race. I’ve said it before, but I strongly believe that McCain’s momentum is largely hollow. That is to say, his swell in the last month is due almost solely to perceived momentum, but not any real sort of core support amoung the GOP faithful, and certainly not in terms of financial wherewithall. This kind of swell is easily quelled by starving it of its only source of food: momentum. His success is proving to be a self fulfilling prophecy, one that can be stopped at the first sign of weakness, or in this case, a loss in Michigan.
January 14th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
#29, So you’re saying that fully 62% of those that vote in the Republican primary will not be Republicans?
I find that very hard to believe, but if it is true, then there is something seriously wrong with our election process!
January 14th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
I sure hope this is right. I’m not getting my hopes up though. Allowing cross over voting is soooooooooooooooooo wrong. The Republican primary should include republican voters. I had my hopes up high for Iowa and NH, so I’m going to just wait and see on this one.
January 14th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
Good find on the poll. I’ll echo those who noted the difficulty in forecasting the turnout model. It was difficult enough to forecast the turnout model when there were many previous caucuses in Iowa - far more Democrats showed up than any of the pollsters anticipated. (And I say this as someone who thinks that pollsters are very good at what they do, and that they know everything there is to know and then some, on how to do it…) There’s not much of a book to go on other than the 2000 primary… and this year, there’s this unusual situation w/ one major Dem on the ballot and the others urging their supporters to vote “uncommitted”…
January 14th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
Illinoisguy - I made 50 calls for Mitt from my house in CO, and the numbers were phenomenal in his favor. Of the 20 calls where I actually spoke with someone, 14 said they were voting for Mitt. This was a Saturday afternoon. Most calls (the other ~30) were answering machines, no answer, not home. Of the 3 Dems I spoke with, 1 said they were voting for Mitt.
January 14th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
I talked to Steve Mitchell today, who conducted this poll. He said that, contrary to what some are saying, only 35% Dems/Indies voted in 2000, and that there was no Democrat primary. He thinks that there
will be fewer Dems/Indies (% wise) than there was in 2000.
January 14th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Thanks BSL, very informative.
January 15th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
[...] spite of a terrible campaign though, Mitt’s chances in Michigan today look pretty good. Of course, that may be bolstered by renegade Democrats trying to make sure the [...]