Race42008 gets the first look at the new Fred Thompson ad that starts running today in South Carolina. The campaign has not released this to YouTube yet, so the quality isn’t perfect, but here it is:
Fred is right out of Central Casting for a President. I am obviously not the first person to make that observation, but it’s worth repeating. From the quasi-Oval Office setting to “The West Wing”-esque music in the background - one could easily see him as President. The ability for the voter to envision the candidate as President - whether we call it “gravitas” or “seriousness” or whatever noun - is a very important and powerful asset for a candidate. And since the main target of this ad is Huck (and of course, McCain, with the “amnesty” bit), it highlights one of Huck’s weaknesses, the fact that he doesn’t have foreign-policy experience…
This is Fred at his best. If he were able to couple this with the retail politics, he’d be in great shape…
I want Fred to go negative. I more negative he is, the more I seem to like him. That is the opposite of all the other candidates, including Mitt who I support.
Brett,
As Huckabee is having to learn while in the spotlight, it is hard to get a campaign together from scratch when the spotlight is on you and your rivals have been on the trail for months. For Huckabee, it was going from also ran to frontrunner over night, which led to mistakes campaigning and staffwise.
He hasn’t done retail politicking since 1996, and he started off rusty, and it has taken him a little while to hit his stride, which he has now.
Don’t take this the wrong way, but you’re not addressing EGStud’s point at all. And I say this as someone who prefers Fred over Huckabee.
Pointing to Fred’s voting record as 100% pro-life is technically true, but Fred never voted on any of the issues pro-lifers have with him. Or, to put it simply, not everyone opposed to partial-birth abortions is 100% pro-life.
Good ad! I really like Fred, and would gladly support him after Mitt. I still wish that Mitt and Fred would come together and announce a Mitt/Fred ticket. That would be awesome!!
Good ad, very good! Fred is my #2, but I’m afraid he may be about done. Most of his followers should come to Mitt, unless there is an anti-LDS bias. They are nearly exactly the same on everything. And sorry, folks, the flip-flop thing doesn’t fit Mitt, however it does fir some of the other candidates.
Fred Thompson is an ABORTION LOBBYIST HACK. He was “too pro-choice” to be Bush’s running mate. But now all the establishment hacks think they have a dunce they can control — he really would be elected to Bush’s third term. I will be one very unhappy 100% pro-life voter if you Deadheads actually get this moron into the top three in SC.
I’m looking forward to hearing Brett’s response to 19 also. He seems like a reasonable guy, so I keep thinking he is going to switch over to Mitt or Fred, but it hasn’t happened yet.
24, “13 — how is Fred done when he is actually moving up and is tied with Romney? that makes no sense.”
Good point.. his viability is in the South, minus SC, which makes him look bad. The question is wether he can keep the Southern support long enough, or if he will just quit. I think he may quit after SC, but you never know, he may let er’ rip through Florida and Super Tuesday. My guess is that 2 people will be left after Super Tuesday, maybe even one, but that’s not likely. I’ve narrowed down the possible winners for president to McCain, Huckabee, Rudy, or Romney. I have aced out Thompson…Sorry. Huck and Rudy are the least likely of the 4 to get the nomination, but if Romney wins MI and Huck wins SC with a Romney 3rd, you never know, it may be Rudy vs. Romney after all.
By the way, I don’t think McCain can live through super Tuesday unless he gets more momentum - if he loses Michigan, I say that it’s over for McCAin - he should implode, especially if he loses with strong Independent support - he will be tagged as a RINO.
Well I actually think Fred has the clearest path to the nomination outside of McCain.
McCain’s path is the clearest — win MI, win SC, win FL and he coasts because everyone else is done.
Fred’s path is the second clearest — win SC, which extinguishes Huckabee who needed SC to boost his already-diminishing Iowa win. Huckabee is second but dropping in national polls and a third (or even fourth) place finish in South Carolina, after a 3rd place in Michigan, would sink him. Romney is done if he loses Michigan but would hang on if he wins Michigan, because I think he goes straight to Florida and ignores South Carolina.
Either way, Fred then goes to Florida with momentum, more if Romney is weak, less if Romney wins MI. If Romney is weak, Fred is now the lone conservative in the race and probably becomes the establishment candidate…and Fred wins a virutal three way race where Rudy and McCain split the moderate vote, allowing Fred to go up the middle. That would give Fred ALL the momentum heading into Super Tuesday. I literally think SC+FL equals nomination for Fred.
That’s the easiest path for him. If he finishes a strong second to McCain in SC, then he still becomes the conservative candidate but then must hope to do well in FL also and then has to really fight it out on Super Tuesday in a delegate battle. In this case, Fred would want to either win FL or hope Rudy wins FL so everyone heads to Super Tuesday and perhaps allows for a huge delegate battle leading to a brokered convention.
Romney’s continued presence could hurt Fred. If Romnney loses Michigan, my feeling is that he is done becuase the press will be so bad he will plummet in national, SC, and FL polls. That would benefit Fred greatly. If Romney wins Michigan, I think he goes to SC for a day or two but then heads to Florida where everyone is even. Then it’s a big fight like I mentioned.
Basically — tomorrow is the first elimination game. Romney can’t eliminate McCain but McCain can eliminate Romney.
Then Saturday is an elimination game between Fred and Huck. They dont have to pass McCain but they need to beat the other. Basically, one of them wants to finish second. Whoever finishes third is likley done between Huck and Fred. Now, the wildcard is Romney — if Romney is still in then Huck and Fred risk both losing to Romney and they could both be out for all practical purposes leaving Romney to fight McCain and Rudy in Florida.
This is why Fred is going after Huck and not McCain. Fred desperately must finish ahead of Huckabee and finish either first or a strong second to McCain.
I frankly want Romney out of the way so that’s why I want McCain to win tomorrow, albeit narrowly.
January 14th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
He’s not 100% pro-life. He thinks the choice to kill a fetus is a state’s rights issue.
It’s shameful how pro-life groups have cynically supported FDT when there are candidates who actually support a national right to life.
January 14th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Tommy,
what is Fred’s path to the nomination? SC, then big Mo to FL? or skip FL?
i seriously am curious.
January 14th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
My two cents-
Fred is right out of Central Casting for a President. I am obviously not the first person to make that observation, but it’s worth repeating. From the quasi-Oval Office setting to “The West Wing”-esque music in the background - one could easily see him as President. The ability for the voter to envision the candidate as President - whether we call it “gravitas” or “seriousness” or whatever noun - is a very important and powerful asset for a candidate. And since the main target of this ad is Huck (and of course, McCain, with the “amnesty” bit), it highlights one of Huck’s weaknesses, the fact that he doesn’t have foreign-policy experience…
This is Fred at his best. If he were able to couple this with the retail politics, he’d be in great shape…
January 14th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
I want Fred to go negative. I more negative he is, the more I seem to like him. That is the opposite of all the other candidates, including Mitt who I support.
January 14th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
Brett,
At this point, your guess is as good as mine.
Econ grad,
100% record on matters of life. You can define it anyway you want, but his record is 100% pro life.
January 14th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
I could support him if I thought he had a chance. What the heck took so long for him to wake up?
January 14th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
Brett,
As Huckabee is having to learn while in the spotlight, it is hard to get a campaign together from scratch when the spotlight is on you and your rivals have been on the trail for months. For Huckabee, it was going from also ran to frontrunner over night, which led to mistakes campaigning and staffwise.
He hasn’t done retail politicking since 1996, and he started off rusty, and it has taken him a little while to hit his stride, which he has now.
January 14th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
Well, since I am a late state down here, I get to watch how this plays out. Thanks Tommy - he might have my vote come March. (Tx Pri)
January 14th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
Tommy,
Don’t take this the wrong way, but you’re not addressing EGStud’s point at all. And I say this as someone who prefers Fred over Huckabee.
Pointing to Fred’s voting record as 100% pro-life is technically true, but Fred never voted on any of the issues pro-lifers have with him. Or, to put it simply, not everyone opposed to partial-birth abortions is 100% pro-life.
January 14th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
murphy,
True.
January 14th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
Good ad! I really like Fred, and would gladly support him after Mitt. I still wish that Mitt and Fred would come together and announce a Mitt/Fred ticket. That would be awesome!!
January 14th, 2008 at 6:01 pm
Way to go Fred! Stay in this! Pick up 14 or 17 percent or whatever in SC, deny victory to Huck and Mitt. Woot!
January 14th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
I heard this on XM (only audio), he sure seems to play up the accent, but it is a solid message and should work well with the true southerners in SC.
January 14th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
CHALLENGE-$10 AT 10 P.M. tell family and friends 2 million possible Come on Fredheads it can be done. 10 bucks this is for Fred!
January 14th, 2008 at 7:08 pm
Good ad, very good! Fred is my #2, but I’m afraid he may be about done. Most of his followers should come to Mitt, unless there is an anti-LDS bias. They are nearly exactly the same on everything. And sorry, folks, the flip-flop thing doesn’t fit Mitt, however it does fir some of the other candidates.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:12 pm
Is it just me, or does Fred just look beat? He just comes across as worn down.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:26 pm
Fred Thompson is an ABORTION LOBBYIST HACK. He was “too pro-choice” to be Bush’s running mate. But now all the establishment hacks think they have a dunce they can control — he really would be elected to Bush’s third term. I will be one very unhappy 100% pro-life voter if you Deadheads actually get this moron into the top three in SC.
January 14th, 2008 at 7:29 pm
Brett - I am sincerely curious to know the top 5 reasons you support Huckabee and the top 5 reasons you would support Thompson.
Please indulge me. Thanks, Beth
January 14th, 2008 at 7:54 pm
Great, here come the h.s. advocates spouting elitist nonsense.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:13 pm
I would like to see Brett’s response to beth in #18.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:31 pm
Fred is 100% pro life. A human life amendment would not pass. And even Huck supported Fred’s version until he startedrunning for president.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
17 — Nervous Huck supporter.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
I’m looking forward to hearing Brett’s response to 19 also. He seems like a reasonable guy, so I keep thinking he is going to switch over to Mitt or Fred, but it hasn’t happened yet.
January 14th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
13 — how is Fred done when he is actually moving up and is tied with Romney? that makes no sense.
January 14th, 2008 at 9:08 pm
24, “13 — how is Fred done when he is actually moving up and is tied with Romney? that makes no sense.”
Good point.. his viability is in the South, minus SC, which makes him look bad. The question is wether he can keep the Southern support long enough, or if he will just quit. I think he may quit after SC, but you never know, he may let er’ rip through Florida and Super Tuesday. My guess is that 2 people will be left after Super Tuesday, maybe even one, but that’s not likely. I’ve narrowed down the possible winners for president to McCain, Huckabee, Rudy, or Romney. I have aced out Thompson…Sorry. Huck and Rudy are the least likely of the 4 to get the nomination, but if Romney wins MI and Huck wins SC with a Romney 3rd, you never know, it may be Rudy vs. Romney after all.
By the way, I don’t think McCain can live through super Tuesday unless he gets more momentum - if he loses Michigan, I say that it’s over for McCAin - he should implode, especially if he loses with strong Independent support - he will be tagged as a RINO.
January 14th, 2008 at 10:37 pm
Well I actually think Fred has the clearest path to the nomination outside of McCain.
McCain’s path is the clearest — win MI, win SC, win FL and he coasts because everyone else is done.
Fred’s path is the second clearest — win SC, which extinguishes Huckabee who needed SC to boost his already-diminishing Iowa win. Huckabee is second but dropping in national polls and a third (or even fourth) place finish in South Carolina, after a 3rd place in Michigan, would sink him. Romney is done if he loses Michigan but would hang on if he wins Michigan, because I think he goes straight to Florida and ignores South Carolina.
Either way, Fred then goes to Florida with momentum, more if Romney is weak, less if Romney wins MI. If Romney is weak, Fred is now the lone conservative in the race and probably becomes the establishment candidate…and Fred wins a virutal three way race where Rudy and McCain split the moderate vote, allowing Fred to go up the middle. That would give Fred ALL the momentum heading into Super Tuesday. I literally think SC+FL equals nomination for Fred.
That’s the easiest path for him. If he finishes a strong second to McCain in SC, then he still becomes the conservative candidate but then must hope to do well in FL also and then has to really fight it out on Super Tuesday in a delegate battle. In this case, Fred would want to either win FL or hope Rudy wins FL so everyone heads to Super Tuesday and perhaps allows for a huge delegate battle leading to a brokered convention.
Romney’s continued presence could hurt Fred. If Romnney loses Michigan, my feeling is that he is done becuase the press will be so bad he will plummet in national, SC, and FL polls. That would benefit Fred greatly. If Romney wins Michigan, I think he goes to SC for a day or two but then heads to Florida where everyone is even. Then it’s a big fight like I mentioned.
Basically — tomorrow is the first elimination game. Romney can’t eliminate McCain but McCain can eliminate Romney.
Then Saturday is an elimination game between Fred and Huck. They dont have to pass McCain but they need to beat the other. Basically, one of them wants to finish second. Whoever finishes third is likley done between Huck and Fred. Now, the wildcard is Romney — if Romney is still in then Huck and Fred risk both losing to Romney and they could both be out for all practical purposes leaving Romney to fight McCain and Rudy in Florida.
This is why Fred is going after Huck and not McCain. Fred desperately must finish ahead of Huckabee and finish either first or a strong second to McCain.
I frankly want Romney out of the way so that’s why I want McCain to win tomorrow, albeit narrowly.