The Candidates
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- John McCain 33%
- Mike Huckabee 23%
- Mitt Romney 20%
- Fred Thompson 13%
- Rudy Giuliani 4%
- Alan Keyes 2%
- Duncan Hunter 1%
- Ron Paul 1%
- Undecided 3%
Survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters living in South Carolina (468 Republicans and 132 independent voters) was conducted January 15-16. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
I’d be very happy if Romney landed #3 in SC. Of course, #2 would leave me pleased as punch.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
Murphy I think he can get 2nd if he plays a little bit. Soft McCain votes should gravitate towards the “winner” and that is Romney right now. If Romney can finish above Huck or McCain as well as Thompson that will end a couple of campaigns before Florida.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Agreed. However, these polls are so far off now that to suggest that these survey results could “confidently” be reproduced 95% of the time within +/-4 % points is ridiculous. More likely that it would be +/- 8% which puts the three amigos in a statistical tie.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
Oh no! Not ARG again, with their McCain love and Thompson hatred! Everyone, disregard this polls!
January 17th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
LOL Romney is NOT at 20% in SC.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
how is mccain leading all these polls? is there any doubt huckabee wins SC? and this is coming from a huckabee hater.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
That 20% is the highest Romney has gotten in a SC poll in just over a month.
And that was only one day of polling after his win in Michigan.
But it’s ARG . . . ARRRGH! (with their pro-McCain bias . . . and arguably anti-Fred bias)
Also, I hear that the Nevada caucuses are at 11:30 (which would be 3:30 in SC right). I’m guessing they’ll know the results from entrance polling and let that information out before 4PM.
Would SC voters checking the web or the news before they vote be influenced to vote for the guy who has two wins in a row? Probably not enough to win, but it could help make him a solid 3rd and possibly a 2nd.
Anyone else know about this?
January 17th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
I can’t see Thompson being that far out, and I don’t see McCain being that far ahead. Granted, these guys had McCain by 7% the day before Michigan. I would love it if the Romney figures were true at 20% because half of this poll would have been before Michigan, but I do not think that it is. I have to be objective here.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
MikeKS,
All of the pre-Michigan polling has Romney with an RCP average of 15%. Is it out of the realm of possibility for him to get a 5% bump for winning MI?
I think you’re hearing hoof-beats but you’re in denial.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
Jeff, Nevada is only two hours behind SC. 11:30am in Nevada is 1:30pm in SC. If it is announced that Romney won big in Nevada by 12:30pm in that state, it would be 2:30pm in SC. Maybe have a minimal; impact. It might help some Mitt supporters actually get out and vote.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
You guys do realize that your average South Carolinian doesnt give a rats ass about the winner of Michigan or Nevada. This is the first in south primary and they want candidates that appeal there, aka not Mitt. It will be Huck or Jmac in Sc.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
After the past three weeks, my confidence in ANY polls is gone. I’m glad to see Romney at 20%, but I’m still a little leary that there might be a large anti-Romney voting block with Huck still in the race. I hope I’m wrong, but we’ll just have to wait until Saturday.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
New poll out of SC:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_SC_Release_011708.pdf
McCain 28
Huckabee 20
Romney 18
Thompson 17
Close battle for 2nd!!
January 17th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
Brett S, Huckabee certainly isn’t doing as well in SC as everyone thought. I do not think you can really get a good read on anything going on there right now. Romney will probably get 3rd place there, but 2nd place is not inconceivable. A lot of backlash over the negative calls by Huck supporters is what I am hearing.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Romney’s base of support, while not huge, is pretty strong. He is favored by a ton of the local politicians there.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:33 pm
#7
If you are Rombot you don’t want Mitt to win in SC but rather McCain.
You wan’t McCain as the target going into FL and McCain and Rudy splitting their votes so Romney has a chance to win FL.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
9 — considering other polls have him stationary or dropping, no, i dont think he got a bounce. it may have solidfied his support some but that is it. i think he’ll lose some with him going to nevada anyway.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
Brett S,
Mitt appeals everywhere. He’s polling ahead of southern son Fred in SC. He’s won 1st or 2nd in ever state so far.
I lived in Augusta Georgia and spent plenty of time in SC. I know there are many SC folks who don’t care what happens elsewhere, but there are plenty GOP voters who aren’t into complete isolationism and homerism.
Mitt will be closer to the top in SC than Huck was in NH and MI, or that McCain and Fred were in IA. You can take that to the bank.
Oh yeah . . . and Huck’s a monolithic candidate . . . Evangelicals only.
The evidence supports it. Only 1 out of every 13 non-Evangelical voters thusfar has cast their vote for Huckabee. Even Ron Paul has gotten 1 out of every 10 non-Evangelical voters to vote for him.
Contrast that to Romney who has obtained roughly 1 out of every 3 Evangelical votes cast thusfar (the same percentage as Huckabee).
Data backed up here (presently the #1 recommended diary at my RedState crossposting):
http://iowansforromney.blogspot.com/2008/01/evangelical-vs-non-evangelical.html
One candidate is showing that he can and IS able to unify the conservative coalition. It’s taking a while, but it’s happening before our own eyes.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
Prediction for SC:
McCain 28
Thompson 25
Huckabee 18
Romney 18
Paul 4
Rudy 4
Others 3
January 17th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
Take a second to think about what’s going on in South Carolina right now. McCain has a very stable and solid lead in the state. He is well positioned to win it and yet no one is openly launching any attacks his way. Huckabee supporters are hilariously making push poll calls that say he is really pro-choice. And the insane Swift Boats Against McCain story was strangled in its crib immediately by the campaign. If you thought McCain got a boost out of winning New Hampshire, wait until he wins SC.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Romney is a general election disaster. He loses by THIRTY POINTS to Obama. He couldn’t unify anyone and would get zero independents or democrats vs. Obama.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
Jeff (#9) I will disagree with you that Mitt could get that big of a bump. Reason? Race in Iowa was between Huckabee and Romney; in NH and Michigan, it was McCain vs Romney. But here in SC, we have the contest between FOUR candidates – Romney, Thompson, McCain, and Huckabee. 4 candidates are giving their all in this state (well perhaps not Mitt as much as Fred and Huckabee).
January 17th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
21,
if you say so bubba
January 17th, 2008 at 1:43 pm
#21 You really believe this number will be the same after there are 2 nominees? Regardless who the Democratic and Republican candidates are, the numbers will change and tighten when voters know their person is out of the race and the country is focused on only two candidates.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
Ross Perot gives his thoughts on the races…
http://www.newsweek.com/id/94827/page/3
January 17th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
#24, you are correct that there is no way Romney would lose to Obama in a general election.
But I thik MikeKS point is that he would be a general election disaster, not that he would lose
by 30 points. And for the record, I think he’s right.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
LJ, I asked this question in another post. Perhaps you can answer. Since SC is an open primary, meaning you can vote in either party, regardless of your party affiliation. How sure are we that the independents who voted for McCain in 2000 will vote for him again, rather than one of the Democratic candidates? And second, McCain has less organization in SC than he does in Michigan and NH. How do you think he will do with GOTV?
January 17th, 2008 at 1:47 pm
21. New poll has Mitt losing by 12% to Obama. They are all meaningless right now, and I think you know it.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:47 pm
Wow, my comment has a huge typo. What I meant to say was that there is no way Obama beats Romney BY 30 POINTS — not no way that he beats him. Sorry — I caught that just after hitting submit.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
LJ,
I can’t find the Q4 financial disclosure numbers. I’ve been at the edge of my seat since you promised good McNews on Jan 15. Anything?
January 17th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
The independents are going to decide the democratic race in SC this year.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
Perot says he’ll be voting for Romney. Interesting.
Coulter and Perot now for Romney in last 24 hours (not sure how much they help . . . since they’re polarizing figures and say as many stupid things as great things). Rush and Hannity all but endorsing Romney as well.
Conservatives want to stop McCain and Huckabee and they are seeing more clearly that Romney is the man to do it.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
21 — Of course it will tigthen, but it shows just how bad of a candidate Romney is on a national stage.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
murphy, yeah, I have been asking about the deadline for next campaign financial report all week, but there has been no answer
January 17th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
I think it is Jan 31
January 17th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
Best candidates to fight nationally, in terms of pure electability:
1. McCain — national name, war hero, etc.
2. Rudy — would make some blue states competitive
3. Thompson — easily carries deeper red states, carries national constituency in south, has enough appeal to win states like ohio, missouri, and west virginia. would beat hillary, uphill fight but doable vs. obama.
Drop
4. Romney — has to work to carry some red states like Kentucky, Virginia, Colorado, and Florida. Has no real natural constinuency. Too “perfect”. Some typical R base voters won’t vote for him. Plausible win against hillary if hillary really plummets. no shot vs. obama.
5. Huckabee — a lot of conservatives can’t stand him, terrible record as governor, pardon and gift history will come back to bite him, religious identity politics will eat him alive. general election nightmare.
January 17th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
Giuliani could be pass for Keys.
January 17th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
SGS,
As far as I know, South Carolina is a closed primary. And actually, McCain has less of an organization then New Hampshire, but more of one then he had in Michigan. In fact, McCain has the best organization in among all GOP contenders. He has the state AG, Speaker of the House, Sen. Graham, 40 members of House and the endorsements of the top 7 (in circulation terms) newspapers in the state. He has an effective GOTV operation. He spent much of 2006 camped out in SC building an institutional firewall and it’s proving to be very effective. On a side note, it’s important to remember that McCain is appealing to the military veterans and moderates in the state. That’s a substantial portion of the population and has grown 10% since 2000. Romney, Huckabee and Thompson are all splitting the same voter poll and will end up denying any of them the victory. McCain shares the voter poll with Giuliani but he’ll be lucky to get 5% in SC. The fact that Thompson, Romney and Huckabee are all going after each other means that they have essentially conceded the state to McCain.
murphy,
You know, I figured the Q4 numbers would’ve been out by now. I wonder if the lack of disclosure is because of the FEC shutdown last month. I can’t disclose anything until they release the numbers publicly.
January 17th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
I decided to look at FEC home page and try to untangle what they are saying. Looks like the next deadline is on Jan 31, then on last day every month afterward.
January 17th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
LJ
I don’t think anyone is disuputing the fact that McCain will take SC. The debate is who takes 2nd. In that case it will depend on the GOTV (organization). What are your thoughts on the other candidates?
January 17th, 2008 at 2:06 pm
LJ, according to TheGreenPapers, SC is an open primary.
January 17th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
McCain winning SC and Thompson finishing 3rd or lower would eliminate Huckabee and Thompson from this race. As a Romney supporter, I like the idea of a 2-man race between Romney and McCain. And for those of you quoting Obama’s “30-point lead” over Romney blah blah – you know that’s not true and you also know that those kinds of polls right now are every bit as meaningless as the National GOP polls were months ago showing Giuliani’s “insurmountable” lead.
January 17th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
On #38. SC is an open primary, but usually not that many indies show up. Expect 20-30% to be independant.
January 17th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Does anyone have any historical data on general election match ups prior to the nominees being selected? Any examples of disparities that were overcome once the field was narrowed down to two nominees.
January 17th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Enjoy! Just released
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/south_carolina/election_2008_south_carolina_republican_primary
GOP SC
Huckabee 24%
Jmac 24%
Romney 18%
Fred 16%
January 17th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Fred is surging folks. People on the ground in S.C. are describing the palpable excitement and buzz that Senator Thompson is generating. Senator Thompson understands campaigns probably better than any of the other competitors in the field and knows that he is peaking at exactly the right time in this cycle. As “Poppy” Bush would say, Fred has the “Mo” going into this contest. Fred’s entire campaign has been a wonder to behold, a total grass roots generated movement from the outset. Fred did not choose this path, the people chose Fred to lead them. The people saw in Fred the right man for the right time and saw in him a powerful, authoritative and transcendent leadership. South Carolina is where this great leader will make his stand and lead the movement of which he has inhabited from its genesis.
January 17th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
Best candidates to fight nationally, in terms of pure electability:
1. McCain — national name, war hero, etc.
McCain has never faced a hostile MSM. It’s like he’s been scoring his baskets without anyone defending him. The GOP nominee will face a frenetic full court press from the MSM, and McCain won’t be able to handle it. What is more, he would need to handle it alone, because of the mutual disdain of the conservative base and media.
Romney has faced nothing but hostile media, they’re already throwing everything at him they’ve got, and he’s still able to move the ball upcourt. As nominee he would team up with the conservative base and media.
January 17th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
I would expect Fred to do better in SC.
January 17th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
every time i see these polls it make me wonder why mitt is not trying to take huckabee out in south carolina? if he beat huckabee that would be huge. i hope the perception that he is leaving doesn’t hurt him too much. i think they must have internal polling that just make them thingk they can’t win there or something.
January 17th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
even if thompson wins, then what? it just seems too late for fred.