- Mike Huckabee 33% (23%)
- John McCain 26% (33%)
- Fred Thompson 21% (13%)
- Mitt Romney 9% (20%)
- Rudy Giuliani 3% (4%)
- Ron Paul 2% (1%)
- Duncan Hunter 1% (1%)
- Alan Keyes 1% (2%)
- Undecided 4% (3%)
Among Republicans (81% of the sample) likely to vote in the GOP primary, Huckabee leads with 37 percent of the vote. McCain and Thompson are tied for second, each with 22 percent.
Among independents (19% of the sample) expected to vote in Saturday’s primary, McCain has a 48-19% lead over Huckabee.
Survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters (487 Republicans and 113 independent voters) was conducted January 17-18. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 15-16 are in parentheses.
January 18th, 2008 at 11:42 pm
If this is true, I’ll eat my hat. ARG strikes again!
January 18th, 2008 at 11:45 pm
Man, what are you supposed to think with ARG, it’s almost as if they should be saying +- 20% MOE.
January 18th, 2008 at 11:45 pm
Wowsers. I can’t believe it. ARG arriving at absurd results yet again. I agree with others; this polling firm will almost certainly be the laughing stock of the entire political world after this cycle.
January 18th, 2008 at 11:46 pm
There’s a definite trend towards Huckabee.
ARG was also right in predicting Iowa this year.
Go HUCKABEE!!!
January 18th, 2008 at 11:47 pm
So much for ARG shilling for McCain.
January 18th, 2008 at 11:48 pm
Wow.
It is ARG. Look at the FredSplosion
January 18th, 2008 at 11:48 pm
how about ARG shilling for the insanity in us all.
January 18th, 2008 at 11:48 pm
Umm yeah.
January 18th, 2008 at 11:49 pm
Yeah right, must be that KKK ad for Huckabee taking effect. Either that or ARG is in outer space???
January 18th, 2008 at 11:52 pm
Which candidates victories tomorrow most benefit Rudy? I’m thinking a Huckabee victory in SC but am unsure in Nevada.
January 18th, 2008 at 11:52 pm
ARG has been the most accurate poll this primary season. The Huckster will win.
January 18th, 2008 at 11:52 pm
One of two possibilities:
1. ARG is nuts (90% probability)
2. There’s a huge movement to Huckabee that predominantly occurred between Thursay and Friday night. Since this is the first poll to take into account Friday night they’re the first to detect it. (10% probability)
I’ll only believe the second possibility if I see it in other polling.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:03 am
A Huckabee victory most benefits Rudy because Huckabee can’t win primaries where a majority of the participants are non-evangelicals. Huckabee lags behind Ron Paul in the total number of non-evangelicals who have cast votes for the GOP candidates in all of the primaries thus far. If Huckabee wins SC, I think he opens up Florida for Rudy. Even if Huckabee wins Florida, he’ll never win the big, blue, delegate-rich states on Super Tuesday. I just don’t see how Huckabee can become the nominee.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:04 am
If Zogby shows movement to Huckabee where he is within 4% or less instead of 7% – he will beat McCain imo.. Thompson will beat Romney because of him going to Nevada but that was a smart move as it will keep the liberal media from being able to bash him for a probable 3rd if he would have stayed – now he can talk about 3 golds and winning Nevada going into FL.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:07 am
Thompson surge!!! I’m telling you, DO NOT underestimate Thompson’s ability to do VERY WELL tomorrow. This is the first poll to pick it up. Remember when no polls caught Hillary’s surge before NH.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:10 am
MikeKS,
So everytime some one is doing crappy, they are just pulling a Hillary in NH?
January 19th, 2008 at 12:10 am
But does Thompson get out with a strong 3rd – It would help Romney I think the most if he did.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:11 am
Clearly the big news out of this poll is that Alan Keyes’ support has been cut in half. I wonder who that supporter switched to?
January 19th, 2008 at 12:11 am
If this poll is truly accurate then this is very good news for Huckabee. What is telling is the margin for Huckabee with Republicans who are likely to vote – he has a 15 point lead. McCain leads with independents which is not surprising, but how many will actually vote tomorrow?
January 19th, 2008 at 12:15 am
Most of you are wrong when it comes to caracterize ARG. The samples are to small to actually have accurate results (in other countries pollsters use much bigger samples, even though the population is often smaller). I belive ARG is the only firm that really publishes the results it gets through polling. The other pollsters publish a mix of results and what they belive is the case (for examle if they get 9% Romney, they publish 13% in order to make it belivable).
It is impossible that results of different firms are that much alike, because the margin of error is very big, so pollsters cheat. If the margin of error is 4% than this polls means in fact the following: Huck 29%-37, Mac 22%-30%, Fred 17%-25% and Mitt 5%-13%.
I have worked for a german pollster, which uses the same professional methods as any american one. There was almost allways a difference between the results we got from questioning the people and what we published. It just would have been too confusing for the public to read 35% on one day and 43% the very next one for the same canditate. We knew, nobody would understand that this is just a consequence of sheer coincidence of whom we interviewed.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:15 am
So, ARG wants me to believe that McCain lost 7 and Romney lost 11 overnight, while Huckabee gained 10 and Thompson 8. That’s exactly an 18 point shift. That’s a massive, massive movement. I don’t buy it at all.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:19 am
LJ
I think you hit the nail on the head. Dont buy it either. Nothing happened in the last 24 hours to create this HUGE a shift.
Still say it is McCains day tomorrow in SC and Romneys in NV.
I think tomorrow we see the race winnow down for the first time this cycle.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:19 am
16 — No, it just shows that in very volatile elections like this voters can shift massively at the last meinute. Look at the huge shifts in that poll — the smallest was 7%. To me that shows A GREAT DEAL of volunteer activit on the ground and that it is wholly unpredictable. It shows that things like the word-of-mouth can be really effective in getting voters out. I think McCain’s support is the softest, myself, and I see Fred moving up. Did anyone honestly think given the huge crowds that he is getting that Fred was going to only do as well as he did in Iowa?
Based on the crowds, I’d say it’s very much a 3 way race between Fred, Huck and McCain. I think there has been a great deal of evidence on the ground to suggest Fred would do much better on election night than was showing in mid week polls. There have been an awful lot of people changing their minds and that is proven in poll ineternals which show up to 50% of the people can change their minds. The fact is I think Romney and McCain’s supporters are likely to head to Fred, and that’s being shown here.
Don’t be shocked if you have three people wedged into the mid to high 20’s tomorrow, which would be great news for Fred as it allows him to continue. As for myself, I’d like to see Huckabee third, not McCain, but Fred needs to do 2nd or a very close 3-way third place in order to have strength coming out of SC.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:19 am
ARG had McCain +7 two days before the Michigan primary.
They’re freakin’ crazy.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:19 am
[...] Race42008 Technorati Tags: Mike Huckabee,John McCain,Fred Thompson,Mitt Romney,Rudy Giuliani,Ron Paul,Duncan [...]
January 19th, 2008 at 12:20 am
Hungarian: So professional pollsters use techniques to smooth their results, while ARG publishes the raw data? Is that your argument?
January 19th, 2008 at 12:23 am
# 24
but the had it going to only + 1 the day before – same with Zogby. If Zogby has Huckabee within 3 or 4% – he will beat McCain.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:23 am
21 & 22 — Not saying the shifts were that massive, but how do you know that something hasn’t happened? Fred and Huckabee have been getting huge crowds all week and SC is a southern state. Why wouldn’t there be a lastminute shift to both of them? Romney’s left the state and that really didn’t hit the news hard til the last 24-48 hours…
My point is that in an election like this with 4 campaigns hitting it so hard on the airways and on the ground, ANYTHING can happen. I think the polls showing Fred in the teens are bogus because that is simply NOT believalbe on the ground, nor did I thinkt he polls showing McCain at 30% were all that believable.
I think the results tomorrow show a virtual three way tie with Huck, Fred, and McCain all hovering in the mid 20’s.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:24 am
#20. . . What’s the point in operating a business who’s sole purpose is to poll the public, only to print false results because the public may get confused? Why not just make up the numbers from the start? Sorry, but I don’t buy it. I also don’t believe you when you say ARG is correct but all the other polling firms manipulate their results or print false numbers. These firms have been publishing polling results for years. If what you say is correct, they would have been called out on it a long time ago.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:25 am
27 — You are right, it is not the numbers but the trends. This shows a huge uptick for Huckabee and Thompson and frankly, if you’re talking pure political common sense, I think that is what most people expected in South Carolina with McCain running a competitive 3rd and Romney heading to Nevada.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:25 am
MikeKS,
The polls underestimated the women in their samples. IT had women at 53% pf the sample, but they turned out in much higher numbers. Who are the polls undersampling here? What is the base for Fred that is so undersampled in every poll except ARG?
January 19th, 2008 at 12:26 am
We also know that polls showed Obama with a double digit lead in NH. They showed McCain tied in MI. I think we need more 1/18 poll numbers, I guess we get them tomorrow night.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:26 am
If Huckabee wins tonight, I will initiate a “Huckabee as McGovern Watch” here at R408. This will consist of a series of posts that will illustrate the parallel between a Nominee Huckabee for today’s GOP and a Nominee McGovern for the Democratic Party of 1972. In so doing, I will demonstrate that Huckabee remains unelectable, that nothing has changed w/r/t the apocalyptic impact his nomination would have on the conservative coalition and the GOP, and, finally, that Huckabee’s support starts and ends with evangelicals according to, you know, all of the actual voting that has taken place, and that no amount of carping to the contrary can change the fact that Huckabee remains a non-starter with non-evangelicals.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:27 am
so lets play sesame street -one of these things doesnt belong-
guess which one it is?
Mccain +7
Mccain +4
tie
Mccain +7
huckabee +7
polls in the last 24 hrs.
LJ pegs it at -7 for Mccain, its more like -14 or -11.
A little too eschew for me to bite into
January 19th, 2008 at 12:28 am
33,
Your hatred of Evangelicals knows no end.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:30 am
DaveG. . . hahaha Sounds like you’re threatening Republican voters! “Don’t make me post something! If you vote for Huck I swear I’ll do it!”
January 19th, 2008 at 12:30 am
Ogrepete,
I did never work for any american pollster so i can’t be sure but it’s pretty obvious that ARG does only publish raw data (or to a higher extent than others) and the rest does not.
One thing is for sure: pollsters usually don’t publish their real results, only parts of them.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:30 am
I want to see one more but with the other 1/17 polls combined with this (even though it is polling independants a little light) I am 99% convinced the order will be Huckabee, McCain, Thompson, Romney – if Fred does beat McCain also that will be a huge blow to McCain.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:34 am
Out west, Huckabee is categorically unelectable.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:36 am
#36: LOL!
#35: While I disagree with evangelicals on all things religious, I doubt you could produce an evangelical who has interacted with me on a day-to-day basis who would verify your claim that I have a hatred for evangelicals. I don’t really hate anybody. Well, except for Virginia drivers who slow down to 20 mph when a few flakes of snow emanate from the sky.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:37 am
29:
I don’t suggest ARG is right, the others are wrong. I only suggest ARG does publish raw data which is not accurate. The other firms don’t want to manipulate tha public or publish wrong results on purpose. They just get some results through interviewing many people and change it a bit. They are very good at it because of their experience at catching trends, so they very often get the final results quite accurately. I suggest you listen to John Zogby who himself said recently on CSPAN that his firm not only does research put “puts it into the political context”, which means exactly what i am trying to explain you.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:38 am
31 — I think the basis is that the electorate is deciding late, as they often do. See New Hampshire for a perfect example of that. See Michigan and how Romney got such a surge on election day when most polls showed a statstical dead heat. See Iowa and how Huckabee did much better on election day than the narrow lead he had over romney.
So my basis is — a large number of people are calling into South Carolina and people are giving snahspot answers. Some people who were on the fence — rather than saying undecided, said Romney or McCain instead of thompson or Huckabee. It makes perfect sense to me that the McCain and Romney vote would lessen and I could see either set of voters going to either Huckabee or Thompson. A security guy who maybe liked McCain but wanted someone more conservative would maybe go to Thompson. A Christian voter who maybe liked Romney might go to Huckabee after romney left the state. A Romney voter who was an across-the-board conservative might vote for Fred. There are lots of reasons why earlier polls might underpoll someone.
Thompson has been hitting SC hard since Jan. 8. that’s only 10 days ago. So it stands to reason that a lot of folks would be shifting to him late. Again, we’ve seen huge, election day shifts now in each of the early states, so it stands to reason we’d see again.
I frankly dont like to see the Huckabee surge. But I think it makes sense. If I had to wager, I’d say this would be the result:
Huckabee 29
Thompson 27
McCain 24
Romney 11
Paul 4
Rudy 3
January 19th, 2008 at 12:43 am
#42
I like those numbers except I would have McCain at 2 barely edging Thompson due to his independant support.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:45 am
The problem is the “Club for Growth” and anti-tax types who don’t accept social conservative activists like Huckabee as part of “their” party. In reality Mike Huckabee is very much a traditional Republican in virtually every regard. Tom Delay apparently is a fan of his for example.
In fact social conservatives have been a prominent part of the Republican party for far more years than Grover Norquist and the “Club for Growth” have been around. Huckabee will reform the Republican party and that’s what these fringe groups like the Club for Growth and Norquist fear most. Instead they should form their own elite party and perhaps get Mitt Romney to lead it for them.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:47 am
Another reason for Fred being underpolled?
His voters are all at his rallies!
January 19th, 2008 at 12:50 am
Fred’s dream scenario tomorrow (that is also realistic)?
Fred Thompson — 27%
Mike Huckabee — 25%
John McCain — 25%
Mitt Romney — 13%
Or something like this, where it’s a very close 3-way tie where Fred edges out to the lead.
That’s not a far leap, statistically, based on where things are now.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:50 am
So Hickabee takes out Thompson and McCain only to get taken out by Romney. Rudy already took out himself. I like this scenario.
January 19th, 2008 at 12:52 am
Fred and Mitt may have made a deal. Mitt vacates South Carolina and heads for Nevada, leaving Fred to clean up the conservative vote. If Fred fails to win or finish second, he leaves the race and throws his support to Romney. Its a win-win for both.
January 19th, 2008 at 1:01 am
On #48. I wish there was a way we could bet on this, but Fred and Mitt did not make a deal. Fred doesn’t like Mitt. Have you seen the debates? Fred and McCain are still good friends and both despise Romney.
January 19th, 2008 at 1:03 am
48 — Don’t know about that. Romney wouldn’t have left his ads on if that were the case. that said, Romney going down helps Fred a lot.
January 19th, 2008 at 1:04 am
I actually think Fred likes Mitt to some degree, and of course likes mcCain. I get the feeling NO ONE likes Huckabee.
January 19th, 2008 at 1:05 am
MikeKS is delusional.
He reminds me of Matt C adamantly insisting that Romney would win Iowa with 41%. The way he said it made it seem so damn convincing. But it just wasn’t true!
January 19th, 2008 at 1:07 am
Fred will not win South Carolina. He will likely come in 4th place (although 3rd is a possibility) in the mid-teens. I love Fred and wish that he’d run a better campaign, but he blew it. He’s a good guy that would make a great president, but sadly, he’s just not the ‘electable’ type that gets people excited. The populace doesn’t deserve Fred’s kind of straight shooting.
January 19th, 2008 at 1:08 am
51 — The buzz this whole campaign season has been that everyone loathes Romney — and that everyone likes McCain (except Romney, but who cares about that bastard?). Not sure about Huckabee.
January 19th, 2008 at 1:17 am
who cares about SC – go Romney in NV!
January 19th, 2008 at 1:17 am
The contempt these guys have for Romney is a microcosm for America’s place in the world. Everybody hates America because we are so successfull. Same for Romney. If he wasn’t aggressively challenging the others and pouring millions of dollars into the race, there would be no enmity. None of these guys dare criticize the other. In the meantime, the party is suffering from abysmall leadership. That’s actually why I like Ron Paul in the race. Although occassionally nutty, he asks the tough questions that the neo-cons in the party don’t want asked. Dissent is a good thing, especially when the party has been drifting to the mushy middle for 6 years now.
January 19th, 2008 at 1:29 am
On #56. Here we go again. If anyone shows contempt for Romney they get accused for one of the following:
1. bigotry
2. jealousy (the subject of this post)
3. stupidity
January 19th, 2008 at 1:45 am
Ok I’m offically predicting Huck, but only just.
Huck 30%
McCain 28%
Thompson 21%
Romney 15%
January 19th, 2008 at 1:48 am
ARG has an obvious anti alan keyes bias, and that is the purpose of this poll.
January 19th, 2008 at 1:48 am
My prediction:
Huckabee — 30
Fred — 27
McCain — 24
Romney — 12
January 19th, 2008 at 1:49 am
Interesting, I hate to put too much stock in polls, but tomorrow we shall see I guess.
This interesting blog was an eye opener – it compares the top GOP candidates positions on traditional marriage – the results were surprising, 4 out of five would be conservatives haven’t been that conservative. What else is new?
http://huckablogger.com/blog/2008/01/save-marriage-vote-for-huckabe.html
January 19th, 2008 at 1:56 am
Granted I’m a McCain guy, but I think he’ll win tomorrow. I don’t know by how much, but it should be solid.
January 19th, 2008 at 2:09 am
One thing I worry about as a McCain supporter is if Hillary’s tear in NH are analogous to the Confederate Flag defense from Huckabee in South Carolina. A last minute emotional appeal that will swing a lot of votes.
I think Huckabee is a very adept politician and knew he was down in the polls and needed to do something quick.
That being said, I think McCain wins a narrow victory. We’ll see.
January 19th, 2008 at 2:09 am
Final Zogby poll shows virtual tie between Huck and McCain:
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1716749120080119?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0
January 19th, 2008 at 2:13 am
The latest poll to come out from zogby shows that Huckabee gained a lot of ground since the last poll by Zogby
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1716749120080119?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0
Mccain 27 (29)
Huckabee 26 (22)
Romney 16
Thompson 12 (13)
Romney 16 (15)
Paul 4 (4)
Rudy 3 (2)
January 19th, 2008 at 2:17 am
On #64/#65. Amazingly, 20% of both Huck and McCain supporters say they are somewhat or very likely to change their minds. And there are 7% undecideds. That makes things very hard to predict.
Add in the bad weather and you got yourself a tough one to predict
January 19th, 2008 at 2:24 am
Way off subject-I know I killed the health care debate with an overabundance of facts, but the reason why it’s becoming an issue right now is that it’s Romney’s plan is working. When people sign up (because it works) it will put more money in the program, but less money will be used in less efficient ways. So if you hear the Democrats say it’s going to cost an extra $147 million this year, that means they’re going to save 200 million in inefficient/ineffective treatment.
And the “connector†that is being credited to Romney (and is being demonized), was devised by the Heritage Foundation. It separates payments from choice, so people can choose their own plan, even if it’s payed for by their employer. More choice means more competition, which means more efficiency in the market. The connector was supposed to be a privately administered function, but the Democrats made it a government function. Not a big deal though, since it’s basically a paperwork function.
If anybody wants to learn more about Conservative Health Care Reform let me know, otherwise it’s just a boring, complicated subject. While it’s a great thing for America, the details will be lost on 99.99% of voters.
What I think we should be talking more about is Islamic Jihadists, and energy independence.
January 19th, 2008 at 2:27 am
#57 – Yeah, and your point?
j/k
I just think the level of hatred towards a man that none of you knows at all is hilarious. I read an article that I think nailed it on the head. The vitriolic hatred towards Romney for things such as his flip-flop on abortion, or whether or not he was a hunter, etc., is really people’s hatred towards Mormonism, but cloaked under these other attacks. People don’t want to state what really bothers them about Romney (his religion) so they pick things that are silly, and then spew hatred towards him (ie TLG referring to him as a bastard above). Those same people who hate Romney, and align themselves with another candidate a la McCain/Huckabee, had better tone the attacks down a bit, or they will wind up pushing support away from their candidate in the event that Romney loses the nomination. I for one will never vote for Huckabee largely due to his horrible positions on issues, but also, to a large extent due to the pure hatred towards Romney that Huckabee supporters have shown. I wouldn’t want to fight a battle side by side with the majority of those who claim to be Huckabee supporters, and the McCain camp is getting close. That in my opinion is the real threat the GOP faces in the fall. Each candidates supporters are getting so hammered by our own side, that we are reluctant to lign up next to those who were lobbing grenades at us out of hatred.
January 19th, 2008 at 2:29 am
reluctant to line* up next
January 19th, 2008 at 2:36 am
#64/65- sanity returns- we knew it was a tight race, and ARG is shown to have little real worth in the polling world.
#68- isnt there a link to that Vanderbilt university poll about the correlation between the flip/flop charge and antimormon sentiment?
If I recall the correlation was something like 58% or more of the respondents who labeled Romney a flip/flopper harbored deep anti mormon feelings. thats a strong correlation
January 19th, 2008 at 2:40 am
#70 – yeah here it is.
http://www.vanderbilt.edu/news/releases/2008/1/18/vanderbilt-poll-explains-why-romneys-flip-flopper-label-sticks-political-scientist-says-anti-mormon-bias-finds-cover
January 19th, 2008 at 3:32 am
I’m not going to comment on how slanted ARG’s numbers are or are not. But you acan pick out trends iyour measure ARG polls against their owne previous polling (should work with other companies too) in order to determine who’s gaining momentum and at what speed.
The number shifts show massive momentum for Huckabee and Thompson, so I think you can ssume that to be an accurate trend even if the percentage themselves are slanted.
January 19th, 2008 at 3:53 am
Wierd, I thought ARG was slanted towards McCain, but maybe not after all. Maybe they’re legitimately poor pollers.