Race 4 2008 Early Morning Essential Reads

7 Responses to “Race 4 2008 Early Morning Essential Reads”

1. ngthagg Says:
   January 18th, 2008 at 4:09 am

   “Surge isn’t the word for this contest” has an interesting point: what makes Florida so special that a single state win there will generate momentum, when it hasn’t anywhere else?

2. Aron Goldman Says:
   January 18th, 2008 at 5:36 am

   A 57-delegate victory in Florida might not generate momentum for Giuliani in California or Illinois. But, it would hurt McCain, giving those in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware (another 201 winner-take-all delegates) the green light to vote for Rudy. To put these numbers in context, Romney presently leads with just 42 delegates; 10 more than Mike Huckabee.

3. Adam Says:
   January 18th, 2008 at 6:03 am

   Aron,

   If Giuliani doesn’t win FL (and assuming McCain wins or comes darn close in SC), it’s probably a foregone conclusion that those 201 delegates go to McCain. Yes?

4. Colin Jones Says:
   January 18th, 2008 at 10:40 am

   From the Jay Cost article on Mitt:

   The Pew poll found that Romney’s net favorable rating among these voters is not very strong: just +7% among McCain voters, and a whopping -9% among Huckabee voters. Of course, the sample sizes informing these statistics are small – but they are large enough to validate this modest conclusion: Romney is relatively weak among Huckabee and McCain supporters. For comparative purposes: McCain is +30% among Huckabee supporters; Huckabee is +15% among McCain supporters; Giuliani is an eye-popping +69% among McCain supporters, and +33% among Huckabee supporters. [A problem Romney will confront if he wins the GOP nomination: he has a net -12% favorable rating among the general electorate. I'd wager this is also a consequence of the negative tenor of his campaign in recent months.]

   If Rudy wins FL, February will see a role-reversal of fortune for Rudy and McCain.

5. Colin Jones Says:
   January 18th, 2008 at 2:42 pm

   http://www.spectator.org/blogger.asp?BlogID=10803

6. Aron Goldman Says:
   January 18th, 2008 at 3:08 pm

   Adam,

   If Huckabee wins in SC, and then proceeds to edge Rudy in FL, McCain’s candidacy, after being beaten in Michigan, upset in SC and finishing 3rd or 4th in FL, would be badly damaged and Giuliani would likely hold onto those 201 delegates in NY, NJ, CT and DE.

7. links for 2008-01-20 | MY Vast Right Wing Conspiracy Says:
   January 20th, 2008 at 6:17 am

   [...] Race 4 2008 Early Morning Essential Reads All the post-SC and post-NV commentary (tags: politics election 2008 candidates) [...]