January 22, 2008
There’s a Caucus Tonight??!!
Yes Virginia, Louisiana holds their caucuses this evening:
Lost amidst the excitement of South Carolina’s “gateway to the South” primary on Saturday and Florida’s win or go home tournament next Tuesday are the Louisiana Republican Caucuses this evening, which just got underway.
While many of the candidates haven’t put a lot of resources into the state (most of the leadership there was pro-Thompson) there are a few things that make Louisiana’s caucuses interesting. These are the first southern caucuses in the country, which means the folks voting will be very conservative. Add to that the fact that Bobby Jindal just won big down there and that the state GOP is largely controlled by Christian conservatives and Louisiana could be a very interesting bellweather right before Florida.
Because of the financial advantage he holds, Romney would appear to have an advantage coming into tonight’s vote; he’s done very well in caucuses and straw polls to date, including two in Louisiana. He also boasts the endorsement of two congressmen in the state. This could be a nice little win for him if he can pull it off.
Mike Huckabee is a neighboring state Governor and this is a very evangelical state. Louisiana would seem to be a natural fit for him but coming off Saturday’s loss in South Carolina and questions about his campaign’s viability, it will be interesting to see how he performs. He hasn’t been very visible there thus far.
John McCain comes into the caucus fresh off a win in South Carolina, but the conservative vote there was heavily divided and McCain won’t have Fred Thompson to help him tonight either. A win for McCain in a conservative southern caucus heading into Florida would do a lot to help McCain answer doubters who question his ability to win among Republicans.
Finally, there’s Ron Paul, and he’s well, being Ron Paul. He had 600 people show up at a rally yesterday in a bad part of Baton Rouge and was met with rousing applause. How many of the Paul people have actually gone to the work of registering as Republicans, and then will turn around and show up tonight will be determined, but still, Paul could surprise here. After all, he came in a strong second in a similar situation in Nevada last Saturday.
The caucuses are a bit of a beauty contest however (per a commenter at Marc Ambinder’s Blog)-
The process is:
Jan 22 - delegates to the state convention are elected.
Feb 9 - primary is held, but unless some candidate get a majority this is strictly a beauty contest. If someone does get 51% on Feb 9, *then* they automatically get 20 of the state’s delegates to the national convention; if no one gets 51% then those delegates are uncommitted. This is different than other winner-take-all states where mere plurality will get you the delegates.
Feb 16 - state convention is held and delegates to the national convention are elected.
In all, this is a fairly typical Romney strategy: Compete in places where you have a built-in advantage (MI & NV), or places where a victory can be purchased (WY and straw polls too numerous to mention.)
The LA Caucuses are very easily purchased (considering that not a single other candidate is competing there), so winning it gets you some great free press attention when it is too complicated for the average person to understand that whoever “wins” there tonight really wins nothing. The headline is all that matters.
http://race42008.com/2008/01/22/theres-a-caucus-tonight/trackback/
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:22 pm
The longer this race goes on, the better for the country. Why? Because as Romney buys off all of the caucuses, he crows on and on about “winning” them. That has the effect of people in those states learning that they, too, actually have caucuses. I expect turnout in the next presidential primary season to be much higher in those states.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:23 pm
Spin as you will. if the other candidates had the money they would do that same thing.
i would say giuliani, actually, is the king of going for those states where you have a built-in advantage like florida and new york.
and what is all the ‘very easily purchased’ talk. it is so irritating. How does mitt go about purchasing his support?
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:24 pm
#1 So Big S
You are a fan of the “end justifies the means”?
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:24 pm
sorry guys, you can’t buy caucuses.
if that were the case, giuliani would win florida and he would have won new hampshire. money only gets you so far. the rest is the candidate.
lets not forget who has the larget donor pool of all the gop: romney.
you can whine all you want about people ‘buying’ votes, but as we all know, money only gets you so far. money didn’t buy romney ia or nh. it takes more than that to win a caucus or primary.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:25 pm
Something for Huckabee fan’s to think about:
From Evangelicals for Mitt:
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:33 pm
Where can the results be found?
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:33 pm
We were planning to carry this state, but we kind of forgot about it today, since our guy decided to drop out.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:37 pm
You have to hand it to Romney - the guy doesnt miss a beat. Sure he has money, but his organization and tactical planning is second to none.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:37 pm
All Romney buys is advertising and a team to get out the vote. Nobody goes to a caucus to get a free meal or a silver dollar. However, if someone is willing to pay attention to your state while everyone else ignores it, the person who puts in the effort has a better chance of receiving the prize. Ron Paul case in point.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:42 pm
Ron Paul is there today. I found the results link in his forums. He is heavily organized.
http://www400.sos.louisiana.gov:8090/cgibin/?rqstyp=elcms2&rqsdta=020908
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:43 pm
http://www400.sos.louisiana.gov:8090/cgibin/?rqstyp=elcms2&rqsdta=020908
Results should start trickling in around 9pm Central
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:44 pm
Nate, you’re just that much quicker than me
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:45 pm
Nice find Nate and BT.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:47 pm
At what point will folks awaken to the fact that Mitt Romney has raised more money, used that money to position himself as the front runner(for those of us who consider ourselves true conservatives), and has dough left over? It should be a tell tale sign as to which of these remaining
4 candidates has his “fiscal house in order”. Guiliani and Huck are broke, and asking staffers to work for free, and
McCain has a pending request to access the people’s money come general election time. If this is any indication
of how these guys will run the WH,er..on a shoe string…. give me Romney for sure!
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:48 pm
Guys, you do realize those are results for something in Feb, correct?
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:50 pm
15 It says: Presidential Nominee, Republican Party
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:53 pm
What backers of other candidates simply don’t understand or comprehend is that the Romney campaign is a movement, driven by true believers. Ron Paul’s campaign is similar, only on a much smaller scale. From the beginning, Mitt stood out in the crowd as the right guy for the right. Those of us who support him were drawn to him like metal filings attracted by the power of electromagnetic force. It’s not about the money. It’s about ripping apart the Washington establishment program by program, agency by agency, and bureau by bureau, and molding them into something that serves the people and helps build the future. It’s about getting rid of most of the Federal Register and destroying the disincentives that are preventing good things from getting done. So we show up to vote in straw polls and primaries….we donate money…..we make phone calls…..we post on websites….and if necessary, we will move heaven and earth.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:53 pm
yeah, at one point rudy was raising the most money. the fact that he didnt spend it wisely shouldnt be held against romney.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:53 pm
Hmmm…well, keep that page bookmarked. With the way this race is shaping up, Things might not be decided come super-super tuesday.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:54 pm
Well said Dave. Romney, sure he has flaws, but I believe he will gut the hell out of Washington.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:55 pm
“What backers of other candidates simply don’t understand or comprehend is that the Romney campaign is a movement, driven by Mormons.” - Dave
Fixed.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:56 pm
15 act - what do you mean?
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:56 pm
So explain this to me… This caucus tonight determines the delegates that go to the state convention. Then there is an unrelated primary that will determine a limited number of delegates only if someone happens to get above 50 percent. After that the state convention takes place, and this is what actually uses the delegates chosen through the caucus?
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:58 pm
“What backers of other candidates simply don’t understand or comprehend is that the Romney campaign is a movement, driven by true believers.”
Sounds an awful lot like cult support. The type who will turn out in 3.5 times their population and vote 94% for your candidate.
January 22nd, 2008 at 9:59 pm
Oh, TLG beat me to it.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:01 pm
Have you noticed the people supporting nonconservatives like Huckabee and McCain denegrate the other candidates with substancesless comments.
Thompson is lazy.
Romney buys elections.
McCain and Huck make things very personal and are both very nasty people, especially if you dare criticize aspects of their record that aren’t conservative.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:01 pm
#22 - look at the top of the page, it says “Results for Election Date: 2/09/08″
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:01 pm
#24
Metro, you have a good point but technically it was more like ~75% in NV when you consider that some voted Democrat and for other Republican candidates.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:01 pm
and 95% for Bush, what? he’s not Mormon, guess they didn’t know.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:05 pm
#17 - dave, i dont know if i had quite an extreme initial attraction to the romney campaign as you did. my dad had worked with mitt and told me he was a great guy. as i looked into the campaign, i thought he was the best candidate who could get into office and actually get things done. i also think that he legitimately wants to do good, and isn’t in it for power for the sake of power, or feels it’s owed to him. I’ve had some problems with the way he ran his campaign: i didnt think he represented himself well when trying to force himself into the far far right on social issues, and the bravado talk on doubling guantanamo or iran. I was really dissapointed when he said we shouldnt move heaven and earth to catch bin laden, because i think we should. i think he should be more real, and less scripted, because he is really a much more normal person than he shows. But at the end of the day, i think he is the BEST candidate out there. and thats really what it comes down to. picking the best person out of a group of imperfect people. (south park tells us it always comes down to a choice between a giant douche and a turd sandwich. a little extreme, but you get the point) anyway, i ended up calling for america in Boston, paying my way to iowa to knock doors, etc. so i agree romney supporters are a motivated bunch, but it is not just blind devotion.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:05 pm
Barney, 95% for Bush in the GENERAL ELECTION.
You can’t compare inter-party competitions with intra-party competitions.
Mormons are conservative in general. But the fact that their vote does not split among regular conservative lines in the primary (unlike in the general, where around 95% did indeed vote for Bush) says that they’re voting for Romney because he’s a Mormon.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:06 pm
Dave, that is the best comment I have read since I started blogging. You are exactly right.
So how about that, Louisiana votes tonight, who knew? This is certainly only a headline win, and even that will have little coverage. But a positive headline is a positive headline.
Now, Kavon, as I recall you are a Rudy supporter, thus I think your whining about Mitt buying his votes is pretty well disingenuous considering Rudy raised nearly as much as Mitt did in fundraising. Also you fail to recognize that Mitt is the hardest working candidate of the them all. When you claim his is buying his win you are coming across as if Mitt was sitting in his house and just spending a lot of money without trying, basically being Fred Thompson (Peace Be Upon Him) but with money.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:07 pm
unlike in the general, where around 95% of conservatives indeed***
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:09 pm
Metro #24,
If you don’t want us to call you a bigot, don’t make comments like that. I have tried to give everyone the benefit of the doubt here regarding Mormonism and bigotry, I just chalk the comments up to politics, but you are crossing the line.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:09 pm
What is bigoted about saying that Mormons disproportionately support Mitt Romney?
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:10 pm
Swint, I’m recognizing facts. There is no similar behavior among Methodists or Catholics or even Jews.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:10 pm
25 - This is starting to come clear to me now - Metro and TLG have the same highschool debate points against romney - must be attending the same highschool - maybe even debate team partners.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:10 pm
TLG, METRO
So that we can avoid the whole Mormon debate yet again, please go back and read the Saturday open thread to hear all of the comments we would otherwise write.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:12 pm
Metro, I love you man, but when you step into the realm of mormonism, you are totally lost.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:12 pm
Ok TLG and Metro,
We get it you guys think Mormons are evil cultists. Mormons are so evil. Ok can we get over it?
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:12 pm
Metro, no you are calling me a member of a cult, and frankly I am getting quite tired of it. I have been the slowest here to accuse anyone of bigotry and the mormonism issue has been covered and covered and covered until there is nothing more to cover. If you want to criticize Mormons for voting in bulk for Mitt that is fine, but don’t stoop to the level of trying to denigrate that same religion.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:13 pm
None of the points made in the Saturday open thread were relevant.
Mormons disproportionately support Mitt Romney. You can’t compare that to voting for George Bush, like Jason Bonham erroneously did.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:13 pm
#31 TLG
Remember this was an uncontested state as many have stated here…therefore it would be simply an assumption unless it was a highly contested state and the results were the same….
It would be nice to see the Mormon breakdown in IA, NH, SC or even FL to add credence to the assertion. Although you have been right in the past regarding this, so I will give you that.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:14 pm
TLG hates organized religion, what do you expect. Some pastor probably beat him up when he was a kid or he was force-fed the bible when he was 10, now he’s taking it out on the mormons–tisk, tisk.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:14 pm
TLG and Metro you two are some of the most ruthless people on here. By the way Metro hows Rudy’s ceiling of 4% going for you so far? Rudy is done when he loses Florida he took a gamble on waiting around and it’s going to backfire.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:14 pm
That’s right TLG, nothing we Mormons or Rombots say to defend ourselves or make a point is relevant, only points from you, Metro, Adam, et al are relevant. I see.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:14 pm
Why is it “bigoted” to point out that Mormons disproportionately support Mitt Romney!?
I’m just criticizing them in the same way that I’d criticize any other group for voting along religious lines or sex-related lines or racial lines.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:15 pm
just ignore tlg and metro and their fascination with mormons.
It is the only thing that seems to bring them out to comment anymore.
even with florida comign around, i am still not hearing much about giuliani.
this is a mccain romney race. if mccain wins florida, its all over folks.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:15 pm
It’s not bigoted to say that TLG, it is bigoted to call us cult.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:15 pm
Swint, it’s cult-like behavior. That falls short of calling Mormonism a cult, which I haven’t yet done.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:16 pm
TLG hates organized religion, what do you expect. Some pastor probably beat him up when he was a kid or he was force-fed the bible when he was 10, now he’s taking it out on the mormons–tisk, tisk.
No, I hate all religion, organized or not.
I had a very good experience at the church that I used to go to. I was actually sad to leave my church, because it was such a nice community. But I’m not going to sacrifice the truth to community.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:16 pm
BTW, you did not do that TLG, I am not accusing you of that, I am calling Metro out for it.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Metro, TLG,
I have no idea why I’m going to try to explain this to you. Mitt’s religion plays a very small part of it even for those of us who ARE Mormons, and most of us aren’t. We have, what in German, would be called a Weltanschauung, an idealized vision of what the world should be like, and very clear images of what is preventing the world from being like that. Mitt has the same mindset. We want a world that works better, one in which taxes are lower, regulations have some basis in reality, trade is freer, Western Civilization is expanded, respect for God and Country is more universal, schools do a better job of teaching and preparing our youth for the future, and the enemies of America learn that there is a price to be paid for preferring the 7th Century to the 21st Century. Mitt has succeeded time and time again in moving the world toward this Weltanschauung, and we want him to have the opportunity to do it on a more meaningful scale.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:17 pm
The funny thing is that, at other times, Mormons here take PRIDE in citing the SAME facts! They take pride in citing how Republican Mormons are. How their turnout is huge. How they are uber-connected via the “Tell-A-Mormon” network. etc, etc, etc.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:18 pm
Southerners often vote for southerners, obama getting the African American vote? Hillary shooting for the women vote. People will naturally be biased. The thing is Romney is not going for that vote per se, sort of trying to stay away from influencing it. Do you expect that Mormons would overwhelmingly not vote for someone who’s values are familiar to them. I don’t think it should be the clincher in a decision but come on tall people get the nod in job interviews, it happens all the time.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:19 pm
Metro
Although you haven’t said it specifically you’re basically pulling a Huckabee by mentioning it the way you did.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:19 pm
cult
–noun
1. a particular system of religious worship, esp. with reference to its rites and ceremonies.
2. an instance of great veneration of a person, ideal, or thing, esp. as manifested by a body of admirers: the physical fitness cult.
3. the object of such devotion.
4. a group or sect bound together by veneration of the same thing, person, ideal, etc.
5. Sociology. a group having a sacred ideology and a set of rites centering around their sacred symbols.
6. a religion or sect considered to be false, unorthodox, or extremist, with members often living outside of conventional society under the direction of a charismatic leader.
Just for educational purposes. By the way, dictionary.com does not use the word “mormon” to define cult, nor vice versa. I said that for laughing purposes.
7. the members of such a religion or sect.
8. any system for treating human sickness that originated by a person usually claiming to have sole insight into the nature of disease, and that employs methods regarded as unorthodox or unscientific.
–adjective 9. of or pertaining to a cult.
10. of, for, or attracting a small group of devotees: a cult movie.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:19 pm
Fair enough Metro.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:19 pm
Dave, the Mitt Romney “movement” that you spoke of…is Mormon-driven. (You’re a Mormon, right?) Jason Bonham’s a Mormon. Justin Hart’s a Mormon.
“The enemies of America learn that there is a price to be paid for preferring the 7th century to the 21st” — Ah, now if we could only bring you so-cons out of the 7th century on homosexuality.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:20 pm
So, who is a cult, by that definition?
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:21 pm
every candidate has their voting blocs - big deal. THe point is,even if there was not one mormon in the USA Romney would still be where he is at today.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:22 pm
Whats funny, is that people here seem really upset Romney might win LA. I an attest to the fact the Romney camp was planning LA back in June at least. This isn’t something that they just decided to throw money when he lost NH. Sorry your candidates didn’t. This should tell you how well Romney can do on Feb 5th.
It’s no small thing.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:23 pm
Wow TLG you are sure giving such a small percentage of the American Public an awful lot of credit and attributing quite a bit of power to us. It’s like we are skull and bones!
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:23 pm
TLG
It’s not going to happen little buddy. But you can always dream right.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:27 pm
It’s not going to happen little buddy. But you can always dream right.
What’s not?
Are you talking about you coming out of the 7th century on homosexuality?
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:29 pm
Just talked to Jeff Fuller, he says the McCain people were far better organized at the caucuses then the Romney people. So see, now you can all come own and talk about how John MCCain followers are a cult of their own.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:30 pm
Romeny has out-planned, out-stragegized, out-manouvered, out organized and yes out-spent every candidate in this campaign.
Period.
He may still loose but nobody can question the maticulous genious of his campain.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:30 pm
TLG,
Matt C a baptist preacher, and the first Romney guy to post here.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:31 pm
Actually, I think if Mitt ends up winning a large chunk of CA, and perhaps beating McCain in AZ, due to Mormons voting for him in the same patterns they did in NV, then Mitt will suffer greatly as the math shows that it’s Mormons who are pushing him toward the nomination.
Meanwhile, some investigative journalist might be researching his donors to see what out-sized portion are Mormon.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:33 pm
steve, that’s not genius. That’s just spending a crapload and covering all your bases. Did you read Jay Cost’s analysis on how Mitt’s run the most amateurish campaign?
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:35 pm
so who won the caucus? isnt it like 930PM in LA?
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:36 pm
Metro,
Really, it must suck to be stuck with a candidate who is loosing pretty bad, and only be able take it out on someone else’s religion. Rudy apparently misjudged the hole thing, it has nothing to do with the Mormon’s and everything to do with Rudy’s bad planning. Maybe he’ll pull something out next tuesday, but if he does, it will be in spite of himself.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:37 pm
Jason,
The early word, as reported in The Corner, was that Mitt’s people and the Paul people were the most organized and enthusiastic. Do they announce the results tonight? What happens tonight translates into real, live delegates later on, so hopefully someone will post the results when they’re known.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:37 pm
Jason, I’ve said the same things about Mormons and Mitt since Rudy was the frontrunner, and you know that.
But you apparently have no problem with intellectual dishonesty.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:37 pm
Metro, can you explain the non-Mormon vote in Nevada? You had already given up on Saturday when I posted. At the time Romney was up by 22 among non-Mormons.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:38 pm
Actually,
It seems Metro and TLG seem to be suffering from a classic case of blame shifting. Their candidates faults are not hs, it’s the mormons. Tinfoil hat anyone?
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:39 pm
I am honest, about what you are doing. Rudy is loosing because he ran a bad campaign, it’s not the Mormon’s fault.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:39 pm
So Romney’s campaign is being driven and supported by Mormons? Which high-level staffers and advisers are Mormon? I’m pretty familiar with the campaign and I don’t know of any high-level LDS staffers besides those with the last name of ‘Romney’.
btw, Dave, your initial summary of the movement behind Mitt is definitely one of the best I’ve heard. Sums up my motivations perfectly.
And TLG and Metro…no, I’m not Mormon.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:40 pm
Metro,
Mormons are less than 1/2 of 1 per cent of the population in Michigan, so under your rules, does he get to keep THOSE delegates?
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:41 pm
Metro,
C’mon you’re smarter than that if only Mormon’s were supporting Romney he wouldn’t have enough votes to win the states he did and place 2nd in the states he did. There aren’t that many Mormons. Do the math.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:41 pm
Jason, Rudy’s campaign is irrelevant to the Mormon-Mitt factor. And you know it.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:42 pm
Kavon, Were you there?
This post is absurd. Romney has one paid staffer in LA. He started organizing for this just a couple of weeks ago. The lack of organization is/was saddening to me. As evidence check out the hand-written modification to the ballot you show.
How can you assert that Romney “bought” this? You’ve got nothing to back that up.
You should have seen the McCain ballots (PS, you can see me on the Romney ballot! The Romney organizer told me to put the MD on there just in case some people want more MDs in politics and I might pick up some extraneous votes). McCain had a former governor of LA greeting people as the walked in and handing him their sample ballots. No Romney surrogates at all. McCain was far more organized statewide than anyone else. There were 15 delegates and 15 alternates suggested by the McCain sample ballots for EVERY congressional district.
http://www.redstate.com/blogs/vladimir/2008/jan/21/la_caucus_why_should_i_bother
This link shows that this LA voter was called TWICE by the McCain campaign . . . but by no others.
By contrast there were several districts that the Romney sample ballots only had 4-6 people on it . . . and no alternate delegates. Additionally, two nights ago, the Romney people decided to have a phone bank to call people out to the caucuses for Romney. I showed up along with 5 other people. I got called into the hospital after only making 10 calls and didn’t get anyone to come out for Romney.
Ron Paul had the most visible supporters there.
I’ll be shocked if Romney wins this thing (sadly).
Look for McCain to win, or Ron Paul, with Romney coming in third or worse.
It was a weird system.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:42 pm
Ben Sauer/Dave, I’m not making any statement about Mitt’s non-Mormon support. He has it. I’m making a statement about his Mormon support.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:43 pm
And John S to #83 too.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:45 pm
It strikes me as more then a little odd to suggest that Romney competes in states where he has “built in advantages” and states that can be “bought”. Romney’s competed in every state and, with the sole exception of South Carolina, fought hard in the final weeks. He’s set up terrific campaign organizations in a number of Super Tuesday states and no doubt plans to compete in them seriously. He’s held over 60 events in Florida, just 10 less then Rudy Giuliani, who’s practically lived there. He held just a smidgen fewer events then John McCain in NH, even though, again, that candidate practically lived in that state. The only conclusions that I can draw about Mitt Romney’s campaign decisions, is that he seems determined to compete everywhere. Does he built in advantages everywhere? Now to be sure, Mitt Romney has the resources to compete broadly, where other candidates might not. And that ought to be considered. But, when he’s facing 3 candidates; one who jumped onto the national scene by campaigning as a Populist Pastor in a state with 60% evangelicals, another who revived his campaign by campaigning almost exclusively in a state that launched his national career, and a third who’s retreated to a state filled with people transplanted from his native state, it seems utterly bizarre to complain that Romney’s the one campaigning in states where he has “built-in advantages”.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:46 pm
isn’t home state advantage, just being from the same state so I should vote for them, more stupid than voting for someone becuase they have the same core value system as you do. Why is home state advantage considered OK, shouldn’t people be looking more at issues/values? Of course home state advantage might not be that big of a deal this time around if you believe the polls.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:47 pm
“In all, this is a fairly typical Romney strategy: Compete in places where you have a built-in advantage (MI & NV), or places where a victory can be purchased (WY and straw polls too numerous to mention.)”
That’s a distortion; Romney’s trying to compete in every state. It’s called “organization”, and it’s quite important in politics. The real question is, why aren’t other candidates willing to compete with Romney? How will that strategy pan after Florida?
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:51 pm
Metro,
I guess you’ll stretch for anything negative about Romney. So what the majority of Mormons support him. Because his values match our values on the issues. Just an FYI Harry Reid is Mormon and there is no way I would ever vote for him. He’s not a Republican conservative.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:52 pm
85 - is it just me or is Matthew E. Miller the most logical even keeled thinker on this site?
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:53 pm
This just arrived in my inbox. Here is a Romney staffer at a caucus in Baton Rouge:
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:57 pm
#88 Not to mention that Romney’s camp has strategically decided to NOT have negative rhetoric about “Mormons” come out of their camp. Not surprisingly, people gravitate to camps that don’t criticize them.
January 22nd, 2008 at 10:58 pm
Why don’t we have any results?
Those links earlier in the thread are for the Feb. Caucus, not the one tonight.
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:00 pm
“Why don’t we have any results?”
Probably, because Romney won, and McCain’s camp (the media) doesn’t want to report on it. Just kidding
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:01 pm
I read an interesting sentence in a history of the Civil War today. It said that towards the end the soldiers were cynical but they had earned it.
I don’t think you’ve earned that cynicism, Kavon. It makes you look small.
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:22 pm
I don’t think most of you guys really get how well-organized the Romney campaign is. Bonham alluded to this earlier in this thread. While people were tactically planning their move on a single state, a single firewall, Romney’s campaign was national. On a daily basis, he was lining up supporters - key, strategic supporters that would build his nation-wide network. In between the various “first” contests (in the nation; primary; southern primary; southern caucus, etc) were various opportunities for delegates…the key to winning the nomination. And Romney’s diversely talented team was busier than anyone else’s. They were running circles around the other campaigns, without a lot of fanfare - organizing databases, assembling contributor lists, calling potential precinct captains. So in between each major contest, Romney picks up a win here, a win there. He plain old out-hustles the others. Come Feb 5, Romney’s national strength is going to pounce the rest of the candidate’s campaigns in a massive shock and awe campaign. It will shock the nation how strong the movement is, and surprisingly, it will have nothing to do with the strength of the Mormon vote. No. The sheer genius of the organization Romney has assembled will be the factor. Criticize him for what you want, but he will have out-hustled everybody else in this race. Many candidates will have wished they’d thought of the pure strategy and maneuvering that Romney has been using.
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:28 pm
Does ANYONE know anything about the results tonight? ANYONE?
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:31 pm
LA predictions
ron paul
mccain
huck
mitt
rudy
i base these on absolutely nothing.
January 22nd, 2008 at 11:32 pm
Looks like results won’t be out until tomorrow, and that’s only for the delegates who may or may not vote a certain way come February 9th. And that’s only half the delegates. No wonder people don’t like to focus attention to this caucus.
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:05 am
The system is almost the same as Nevada. If the media report Nevada, they should report Louisiana.
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:18 am
I saw three people with those “Team Romney Staff” shirts on. I asked two of them when they joined the staff. They said that they weren’t paid staffers and one said he just wanted to wear a pro-Romney shirt and asked if he could wear it. The shirts came in packets to Travis Cummings (the only paid Romney staff member in the state).
I can’t believe someone sent you the Romney ballot without sending you the VERY professional (on cardstock) McCain sample ballots.
Kavon, you are being played here big time if someone is sending you stuff saying how Romney had superior organization. I suggest you check your sources. I should have taken more pictures to document what I observed. McCain was far and away the most organized team there (again, with recognizable surrogates–a former governor and a guy running for congress now working the folks as they walked in saying–”I’m an old guy hoping that you’ll support this old guy tonight”).
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:44 am
I’m not mormon but excited about Romney. A nice chunk of people feel the same way after looking at all
the candidates. So when you have a great candidate that happens to be mormon, why would you be shocked
or find it troubling that most mormons vote for him?
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:44 am
Metro
What’s your address I’ll send the missionaries?
Luvs
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:47 am
Jeff,
Obviously you were there. Any word on when/where/how results will come out?
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:47 am
Hey Jeff, were there any announcements as to when the results will be announced? Thanks
January 23rd, 2008 at 12:48 am
Fast typing, Fredo!
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:01 am
Should be posted to http://www.lagop.com by the morning.
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:08 am
Oh my! Look at the Mormon bashing come back out of the closet now that Mitt is undeniably doing well. Welcome back, haters. And Metro, just when I was starting to develop kind of respect for you…
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:11 am
Ok. That was name-calling on my part. For that I apologize.It just gets so old, and to me it is evident why it is occurring again.
January 23rd, 2008 at 1:23 am
I think it’s probably true that Romney has been well organized in the early state contests, but I’m in a later state and his campaign has been behind Giuliani and others here. I’ve done a little political organizing and it is a hard business and requires lots of hard-core work, and true hard-core supporters who are willing to organize lists, canvass by phone and foot, make cold calls, and on and on, are not super-easy to find. You either need a really solid candidate, or a really solid campaign leader/staff, or a combination of both. While some might think that Romney benefits from the hard-core support of a few motivated fellow believers, the actual truth is that Romney has not lifted a finger, really at all, to go out of his way to recruit interested Mormons who are likely supporters and mobilize them for political support. His campaign seems to have been so nervous about negative media backlash regarding any efforts to mobilize support among Mormons that they have literally stood by and done almost nothing in that area. Anything done by fellow supporters has been by those motivated to reach out to the campaign and get involved that way on their own. Political observation is common enough among voters, but political activism is rare indeed - the campaign staff that gets the support of such motivated individuals is truly lucky, in any political campaign.
January 23rd, 2008 at 8:19 pm
Apparently, Ron Paul came in first in actual votes, but the other candidates ganged up and formed a “Pro-Life” slate to beat out Ron Paul. Oddly enough, the Pro-Life slate included Giuliani voters.
January 23rd, 2008 at 9:19 pm
McCain won Louisiana?