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St. Petersburg Times Florida GOP Primary
- John McCain 25%
- Mitt Romney 23%
- Rudy Giuliani 15%
- Mike Huckabee 15%
The survey was conducted Jan. 20-22 for the St. Petersburg Times, Bay News 9 and the Miami Herald. It was conducted by telephone from a list of registered and frequent voters in Florida who described themselves as likely to vote Jan. 29.
The full sample of 800 interviews has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent, while the margin of error for the Democrats is plus or minus 5.4 percent and for the Republicans it’s 5.1 percent.
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:22 pm
Yes! Let’s hope it stays this way!
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:25 pm
Go home nowandlater…you are a bore!
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:26 pm
Go jump in a lake!
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:27 pm
This is pre-Fred drop out.
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:27 pm
There is no lingering doubt that Florida is shaping up to be a war, and a precursor to the 2-man race that will follow. The big question is, in a closed primary, what is McCain’s ceiling? My guess is that it’s about 30%, and that Mitt’s is higher than that. Mitt has exceeded 50% twice….no one else has come close to that. Mitt’s 39% in Michigan is the 3rd best showing thus far into the primary. As we get closer to next Tuesday, voters from other candidates will start to stray over to one of the frontrunners…..Mitt will get a majority of them.
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Once again I’m not sure this poll includings ealry voters….Also it looks like McCain is starting to pull ahead with the Cuban vote.
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:27 pm
nowandlater No offense but what is your age?
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:28 pm
Pre-Fred? Oh flippity dang nabbit! What a piece of junk!
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:28 pm
Exactly, Brett. This doesn’t factor in Thompson’s exit. It’s a tight race right now.
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:28 pm
Damn.
Have we posted Strategic Vision?
JMac 25
RUdy 22
Mitt 20
Huck 18
Fred 6
Paul 5
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:29 pm
Paul8148: I think the early voting tends to favor Mitt. At least that’s what a poll of 512 early voters showed. Is this what you’re talking about?
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:29 pm
Paul what are you using in regards to the Cuban movement?? Where do Huck supporters move if he decides to pull out of FLA?
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:29 pm
Mitt showing strong momentum per RCP trend line.
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:29 pm
I am divorced. In my 40’s and semi-retired. I am pretty much a loser and a political junkie. I have cheeto dust all over my sweat pants and I am enjoying a box of ding dongs as I am typing this post.
Got the image?
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:31 pm
Ah,
Looks like most these polls are still missing the Fred effect. Especially if they were conducting their polling on Jan 20 & 21st.
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:32 pm
The Survery USA Poll had early voting McCain 31- Rudy 25
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:34 pm
nowandlater,
What church do you go to……..
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:35 pm
#11
Why would early voting favor Mitt when McCain, Rudy and Huck, for the most part, have been in the lead?
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:36 pm
BEWARE………….
The RETURN……………….
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:38 pm
nowandlater I am 55 retired and I have just barely started to become a political junkie, but I do take a break and eat lunch away from my computer and just let life happen rather than try to control it. I seriously doubt that you are a loser, but watch a movie and enjoy the fresh air. None of us here will actually have much of an effect about what the millions of people decide to do with their one little vote. Politics is interesting and fun but this blog is not the real world!
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:39 pm
Puhlease Abe…
In the South, I go to the Church of the Brother of Satan of Latter Day Saints.
In the east, it is the Mormon church.
In Southern California, it is the yuppie Mormon-Christian church.
In Utah, it is the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints.
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:42 pm
Thanks. I have gone through some very rough times in life lately and I use the internet as an escape right now until I can’t get back on my feet. I trying to pray hard as I can and I hope that my faith in Jesus can get me back on the road again.
But, yeah I should not be too hyper or sensitive about the outcome of a political process. That is a totally fair assesment and legitimate advice. I know the vast majority of members don’t invest their life in such things and I admire them for it.
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:43 pm
nowandlater,
You are supposed to use a lower case “d” in day and put a hyphen between Latter and day
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:43 pm
nowandlater,
Your eating habits technically conform to the Word of Wisdom, but it sounds like you’ve been looking for loopholes. Peace, my brother.
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:44 pm
But I believe you…………..
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:44 pm
Off topic…
Really awsome front-page picture of Mitt campaigning in Florida over at http://www.mittreport.com
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:45 pm
Hey guys, this isn’t eHarmony.com
Get back to the thread…
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:46 pm
eHarmony……
I’m already married………
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:47 pm
Anyone see Mitt get Punk’d by his son…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGf87FDN9L0
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:49 pm
Thanks abe. I am more engineer than essayist. Excuse my horrific grammar please (or please excuse my horrific grammar or whatever the heck I am trying to say).
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:52 pm
nowandlater,
I have never been bothered or annoyed by yours or anyone elses posts here…..
I just come here to have fun and maybe pick up on the latest on the race….
I do not take myself or anyone else seriously….
Especially since my Iowa-Crash…….
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:54 pm
The 2 leftist Republicans are tied for last. That is good news.
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:55 pm
Ok, that’s cool bro. Take care and hang loose (got to use my native tongue being a beach boy by birth)
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:55 pm
QuacknHack: Rudy = leftist? That takes the cake.
January 23rd, 2008 at 5:58 pm
Democrats GOP Favorites (most left):
1) John McCain
2) Mike Huckabee
3) Rudy Giuliani
4) Mitt Romney
IMHO of course.
January 23rd, 2008 at 6:00 pm
Rudy aint a leftist. He is just too cowardly to change his positions on abortion and a couple of other social issues. Plus, he is going to appoint the right kind of judges so I think he would be a fine president. Much more viable than Mitt that’s for sure.
My choices are/were:
Thompson (scratch him off the list)
McCain
Rudy
and a tie betwee Mike Huckabee
and Barack Obama (yeah his policies suck major but he meets my quality character test)
and Mitt is somewhere near the bottom where if he was running against Hillary or maybe (just maybe) against Obama I would hold my nose and vote for him.
January 23rd, 2008 at 6:01 pm
Ambinder says this is the most reliable poll for Florida. Still too early to write Rudy off but it’s not looking good for him.
January 23rd, 2008 at 6:02 pm
Rudy is pro choice, pro gay rights questionable on second amendment, not a good immigration record….
I don’t understand why people say that McCain is to the left of Huck. McCain is better on taxes, immigration, crime, security. Pretty much every issue, and every single issue if you go by what Huck did, and not by what he says, which changes from day to day.
January 23rd, 2008 at 6:06 pm
36,
you betray your true feelings saying you would have trouble voting for mitt in the generals. You have problems.
January 23rd, 2008 at 6:06 pm
QuacknHack, the fundamental issue of right-vs-left is political economy. Rudy’s the farthest to the right in the field, cultural issues excepted. Militarily, too, farthest to the right.
McCain is fundamentally a liberal in political economy, except for spending cuts.
January 23rd, 2008 at 6:11 pm
40, except for spending cuts? That like saying Green Bay did ok except for that last field goal. Look at the past 7 years, that is what we are missing. McCain supports extension of the Bush tax cuts and wanted spending cuts to match before.
January 23rd, 2008 at 6:15 pm
QuacknHack, I could be a SOCIALIST and argue for spending cuts.
Did you see my post earlier today about fiscal conservatism vs. economic conservatism?
Supports the Bush tax cuts now? Dude, he nearly singlehandedly KILLED THEM. That’s like a guy who’s in prison right now, saying I have a right to live, after he tried to kill me a few years ago.
January 23rd, 2008 at 6:15 pm
Here’s what I wrote:
More voters need to be educated about the difference between FISCAL conservatism and ECONOMIC conservatism.
FISCAL conservatism is about balancing budgets first and foremost, and then cutting spending. (Also many Democrats describe themselves as fiscal conservatives based on the first half, only. That style of fiscal conservatism is compatible with socialism. So is cutting spending, even.)
ECONOMIC conservatism is about promoting markets and capitalism and entrepreneurship and wealth via TAX-CUTTING and REGULATION-CUTTING. It is also served best by spending cuts, and, finally, balanced budgets.
John McCain is a strong fiscal conservative who is the enemy of economic conservatism.
January 23rd, 2008 at 6:27 pm
Many Democrats call themselves fiscal conservatives because they are liars who just want to say what the public wants to hear but never really vote that way.
I don’t see how you can say that McCain isn’t a capitalist. One vote probably in anger at Bush because of the tone of the campaign. You are making too much of that to promote your guy.
January 23rd, 2008 at 6:28 pm
Metro,
What you left out of your description of Economic conservatism is a belief in free trade. BTW, you probably haven’t noticed, but Mitt qualifies in spades as both an economic conservative and as a fiscal conservative…..it’s the raison d’etre of his campaign. He’s as pure as Rudy on these issues, only with better real world experience in the private sector of the economy, better academic credentials in business and economics, and none of the obnoxious liberalism on social issues.
January 23rd, 2008 at 6:58 pm
On #41- Green Bay actually did terrible overall. They were lucky to keep it close. Consider the following:
-90 yard fluke touchdown
-another touchdown came from a kick return to the Giants 39 yard line
-their last field goal was b/c Favre’s interception was then fumbled, advancing the ball 20 yards for them
-the Giants missed 2 easy field goals that would have won the game before OT
I’m a Packers fan btw, it was a tough game to watch.
January 23rd, 2008 at 7:43 pm
QuacknHack, do I have to produce McCain quotes for you, on tax breaks for the rich? On how he prefers a clean govt to one which respects free speech? (He actually said that.)
Dave, thanks, yes, free trade. I believe Mitt believes in all that — I think. His comments about Reagan etc, plus his overall dishonesty, make me less than 100% sure. What’s more relevant than the business experience, is, has an governmental executive accomplished massive tax cuts — one of the rarest things in history? Rudy did in spades. Mitt largely failed. Isn’t THAT the issue?
January 23rd, 2008 at 9:03 pm
#38
I can’t understand how ANYONE could be to the left of Huck, including Clinton.
January 24th, 2008 at 11:28 pm
OK where is the other 22% people It must be going to ROn Paul.. but they fail to mention his name in any of the percentages.. why is that?? oh so maybe he has gained higher percentages then they wanted and dont want the american people to know.. yep.. this is my first election that i have been involved with and I am ashamed of most of the media that has covered this election they have acted very unamercian withholding the truth from the real amercians. JFK would be ashamed of all of you as well. ask yourself where is the other 22% and why is Ron Paul not being covered.. he won 2nd in the Nevada and Louisiana caucuses and still no one says anything.
ROn Paul someone they dont want you to hear because he makes real since and will bring real change for AMerica..people look him up for your children and their grandchildrens sake i beg you…
January 27th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
The Romney Reality: MA Economy Edition
TAX BURDEN IN MASSACHUSETTS WAS ONE OF HIGHEST IN NATION – BEFORE AND AFTER GOVERNOR ROMNEY
Under Romney, Tax Burden Went Up
In 2002, Tax Foundation Ranked Total Tax Burden In Massachusetts 9th In The Nation. According To The Tax Foundation, Total Tax Burden In Massachusetts Was 7th Highest In The Country In Both 2006 And 2007.
Romney Didn’t Reduce Income Tax
Romney Pledged “To Roll Back The State’s Income Tax To 5 Percent By The End Of His First Term,†But Today, Income Tax Rate In Massachusetts Is Still 5.3%.
Romney Didn’t Reduce Corporate Tax Rate
Throughout Romney’s Term As Governor, Massachusetts’ Corporate Income Tax Rate Remained At 9.50%, The Fourth Highest State Rate In The Nation.
And Romney Raised Taxes At Least 19 Times
Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation President Michael Widmer Noted That “Businesses Have Been Paying $1 Billion Annually In New Taxes For The Last Four Years.â€
Romney Enacted 19 Tax Increases, Which Cost Taxpayers An Estimated $519 Million In First Year They Were Enacted.
Romney Proposed An Additional 6 Tax Hikes That Would Have Cost Taxpayers An Additional Estimated $56.1 Million In Their First Year, But They Were Not Enacted.
BUSINESS CLIMATE DECLINED UNDER GOVERNOR ROMNEY
When Romney Took Office In 2003, The Non-Partisan Tax Foundation Ranked Massachusetts’ Business Climate 26th In The Nation. • After Romney’s First Year As Governor, Massachusetts Dropped Eight Places To 34th In The Nation. By The End Of Romney’s Term, Massachusetts Had The 14th Worst Business Tax Climate In The Country, Ranking 37th On The Tax Foundation’s List.
Number Of New Employer Businesses Decreased Under Governor Romney
Associated Industries Of Massachusetts President Richard Lord Said Romney’s Tax Increases Could “Discourage Employers From Staying Or Relocating†In Massachusetts.
From 2002 To 2005, Estimated Number Of New Employer Businesses In Massachusetts Decreased By 9.215% While Increasing Nationally By 22.12%. Massachusetts Lost 3,384 Business Establishments Between Mitt Romney’s First Year And Third Year As Governor.
UNDER GOVERNOR ROMNEY, MASSACHUSETTS RANKED AT BOTTOM OF NATION FOR JOB CREATION
Massachusetts Is “One Of Only Seven States That Has Still Not Recovered All Of The Payroll Jobs That It Had At The Peak Of The Business Cycle.†Romney Spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom: “Did We Recover All The Jobs That Were Lost? No.â€
From The Beginning Of 2001 To The End Of 2006, “Massachusetts Ranked 49th In The Nation In Job Creation, Outpacing Only The State Of Michigan.â€
Formal Payroll Employment In 2006 Was 16,000 (0.5%) Below Its Average Level In 2002, The Third Lowest In The Nation.
While The Number Of Employed People Over Age 16 Rose Nationally By Nearly 8 Million Between 2002 And 2006, The Number In Massachusetts Fell By 8,500.
GOV. ROMNEY DIDN’T SOLVE MASSACHUSETTS’ BUDGET DEFICIT
Romney Inherited Deficit But Left One Too
On Campaign Trail, Romney Claims To Have Closed A “Nearly $3 Billion Budget Gap Inherited When He Took Office.â€
• Romney Only Faced A Budget Deficit Of $1.3 Billion At The Beginning Of His Term.
• Romney Admitted In 2005 That The $3 Billion Gap “Didn’t Come True.â€
In November 2006 Romney Aides “Projected A Budget Deficit For Fiscal 2008†Between $400 Million And $1.1 Billion.
And Romney Increased Size Of Government
Romney’s Recommended Budgets Increased Real Per Capita Government Spending By 7.85%.
Total Spending In Recommended Budgets Grew 22.2% Under Romney’s Watch, From $29.477 Billion In Fiscal 2003 To $36.021 Billion In Fiscal 2007.