Insider Advantage Florida GOP Primary Poll
- John McCain: 23% (23)
- Mitt Romney: 23% (22)
- Rudy Giuliani: 16% (18)
- Mike Huckabee: 13% (16)
- Ron Paul: 7% (4)
It’s important to note that Insider Advantage, for some inexplicable reason, includes Democrats and independents in their Florida polls. Quite alot of them in fact; in this poll nearly 1/3 of respondents are Democrats or independents. Given that Florida’s deadline to change your registration to Republican was December 31st, these voters are utterly irrelevant. Just including Republicans, the poll looks like this.
- Mitt Romney: 30%
- John McCain: 23%
- Rudy Giuliani: 19%
- Mike Huckabee: 12%
- Ron Paul: 7%
January 25th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
Wow, Romney’s pulling away. I think this is going to look a lot like Michigan. The “polls” will be close, but on election day it will be a solid Romney win.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
BEWARE………………
The RETURN of the ROMNEY!!!
Also, the McCRUMBLE….is Coming…….
January 25th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
hey that just means it will be more of a surprise when Romney wins by 6-10 points. Hell if Romney wins by 7+ points then he should run away with this thing.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
Hey….Rudy is within 4 points of Mac……
GO RUDY……
GET some SHOCK&AWE going……
Come ON!!!!!
January 25th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
This is fantastic news!!
January 25th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
Since it is a closed primary I’ll go with the second set of numbers, the paint a clearer picture of what this will look like on Tuesday night.
Mitt Romney: 30%
John McCain: 23%
Rudy Giuliani: 19%
Mike Huckabee: 12%
Ron Paul: 7%
January 25th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
Abe, that’s saying it! GO RUDY, GO!!!! LET MCCAIN EAT YOUR DUST!!!
January 25th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
ARG and another poll I noticed was adding independants also. They are still stuck on NH, Michigan, and SC…
January 25th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
Intrade Florida now looks like this:
Mitt 61 (+7)
McCain 40.8 (+4.5)
GOP Nomination:
McCain 49.9 (-0.3)
Mitt 36 (+5.2)
January 25th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
I think the results from the last IA poll, Republican only, was:
Romney 27.5
Giulian 22
McCain 20
Which shows that McCain is taking Giuliani’s support, as predicted, but Romney keeping pace by picking up his own support, probably from Thompson, although he isn’t tracked.
Remember also that the new poll is still pre-Debate.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
Go Rudy Go!
January 25th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
The only thing that could possibly save McCain is the Cuban vote which is big in FL and Martinez endorsing McCain may switch a lot from Rudy to McCain – Romney gets his numbers mostly in Central and South Florida.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
Matthew, I am wondering about some thing here. Since Democratic Floridians are already penaltized for a while by their national office in that they do not have any delegates, do we have any idea how many of them have crossed over to our party before the registration deadline?
By the way, Intrade now has Mitt winning Florida over McCain, his 63 to McCain’s 40.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
#8 Mike,
Even with the independents Mitt is tied with McCain, once you take out Indies (closed primary)it will look like a huge win for Mitt because he will win by double digits by the time the polls close on Tuesday.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
I mean Central and North FL
January 25th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
I agree with Matt that I don’t understand why IA would include Dems/Indies who can’t vote in the primary in their sample. I couldn’t find anything in detail, in terms of an answer.
Although, interestingly, Rudy and Mitt’s support both surge when only Rs are included. Everyone else stays the same.
Also, bear in mind that by excluding Dems/Indies from their sample, the MOE on the R-only sample is higher (I don’t know what it would be, but it would unquestionably be lower, since there were fewer respondents, by definition.)
January 25th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
Will Thompson’s name be on the ballot in FL? Some states have deadlines whereby names can’t be removed after a certain time. (Here in Alaska his name has been removed from the 2/5 ballot.)
January 25th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
SGS…..
Thanks…..
I don’t say much (substantively), but thanks……
January 25th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
17
Yes it will be
January 25th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
Still to close for me to call.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
19. . . Thanks. That could play a small roll in the election, depending on how many people still pull the lever for him as a protest or sign they still support him.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Ray 14
I hope your right but McCain was getting a lot of early votes down here so I am not 100% on Romney winning just yet and with Martinez – I heard he has a lot of sway with the Cuban vote.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
Do the poll averages on Real Clear Politics use the only Republican poll results? Or do they include Independents and Dems?
January 25th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
I’m not sure what to think. Could eligible primary voters still identify themselves as democrats and independents in the survey?
I just can’t imagine they would include folks who aren’t eligible to vote.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
Since I can write this on Brett’s little fiasco of a post, i’ll do it here. Glad that piece of crap came down so fast. Good riddance.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
#22 Mike,
Should make for an interesting night next Tuesday, grab the popcorn and kick back as the results start coming in.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
23
The ones with ind. also. – so Romney would be ahead if they noticed that.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
Romney supporters be careful what you ask for. If Rudy comes in second, he could get a significant amount of delegates for the convention (NE) and that would make either Huck or McCain the King maker. And we know how that would turn out.
Romney would have to garner well over 50% of the required delegates to avoid a King maker scenario.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
Jack…I think I speak for most Romney supporters on this point..
I would rather have Giuliani than McCain or Huck.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Ray
I am always nervous until the actual results come in – even Michigan had me nervous with how those polls were.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
I saw from Politico that Senator Martinez is not exactly popular with his constituents. Last June, his approval rate burn-crashed to 21% whereas 47% disapproved his senate performance. Is this still the case, anyone know?
January 25th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
#28, since most of the delegates aren’t bound, if the margin were close enough (say Romney with 45% of the delegates) he’d prob still win. Delegates wouldn’t want to vote against the will of a strong plurality of their party. Plus the delegates won’t move in lock step with their candidate.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:54 pm
I think this poll is just asking if they are going to vote in it not knowing the rules and then putting down the party they tell them.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
ilfigo, Yes, for most of us who are not strictly social issues persons, we would be much more comfortable with Rudy than McCain.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
31
they say he is only popular with the cubans here now but there are quite a few in S FL and many were going to vote for Rudy but I dont know now. Martinez is a little liberal hurting himself with many here.
January 25th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
Martinez needs to ge out and let Jeb run next time.
January 25th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
Re #32–I appreciate your sentiments because I am a Romney guy and I hope that if the convention is brokered, that you are right. But I just don’t know how we can predict what delegates will do in a brokered convention when we haven’t had one for so long.
If there were some data on the topic (I doubt it) than I would feel much better. As is, I really think Romney will win FL, do great on 2/5, and be in a strong position going forward. I think the Southern region is the wildcard. Will they all turn to Huckabee and McCain, or can Romney pick off a few?
January 25th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
To this poll, Rudy is saying, “yes! I still have them lulled into a false sense of security. Just the way I planned it”
January 25th, 2008 at 5:06 pm
#38–that was one of the funniest moments I’ve ever seen at a debate! The other candidates and the whole crowd was like, “Riiiiiight”
January 25th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
#29 Ilfigo
Are you saying that if it is a two man race and Mitt happens to lose, you would rather have Rudy as the Nominee rather than McCain or Huck?
Which one of the candidates do you think Romney has the best chance in a 2 man race? I personnally think it is McCain.
January 25th, 2008 at 5:08 pm
Colbym (#37), I think Mitt has been locked out of the southern states. He could win second or third places, but first place, I am not so sure. I really think he needs to announce his running partner, a southern person at it, really soon! Go! DeMint, Webb, Thompson, or whoever this VP will be, Go!
January 25th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
The McFizzle
January 25th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
RCP includes the entire result, though frankly I think the Republican only result would be most prudent. Try to think of some possible questions that would allow these independents and Democrats to participate. And even if you could devise a series of questions, which leaves people identifying themselves as Democrats or independents, despite being registered Republicans, what would be the point?
January 25th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
After following this silly race for months, I’m all for Romney winning it, and I wouldn’t mind if Giuliani won either. I would have heartburn if McCain or Huckabee won it all.
January 25th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
The only possibility that I can see is that it’s self-ID’d Dems and indies – although I would doubt that nearly 1/3 of registered FL Rs are self-IDing themselves as D and I…
January 25th, 2008 at 5:29 pm
This is the response I got from Matt Towery of Insider Advantage on why demos and indies are included in poll:
They are registered GOP who id as Dem or indep (they are n. fl longtime Dems who vote GOP and new refisters). MT
January 25th, 2008 at 5:31 pm
whats was bretts post? i didnt see it.
January 25th, 2008 at 5:31 pm
Intrade has Romney at 61.0 and McCain at 35.0 to win FL. Nationally McCain is at 49.9 while Romney has climber to 36.0. This feels like a momentum shift is taking place for Romney, but I am still cautiously optimistic.
January 25th, 2008 at 5:35 pm
BEWARE……………
The RETURN………………
Run, John, Run…….You’re looking quite scared…….
January 25th, 2008 at 5:38 pm
#46 David DeLatte-
Thanks for doing the research and solving this puzzle for us. (As a McCain supporter, I’m obviously happy that the original sample – in which he fares much better – is more accurate than the R-only one….)
January 25th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
Did anyone else see the article I’ve linked above?
January 25th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
The original sample is so far off. The registered republicAns in Florida are not 1/3 dems and indies. I can promise you that.
January 25th, 2008 at 6:28 pm
Romney is rising regardless
January 25th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
Assuming Giuliani leaves the race, what states is Romney going to win on Feb. 5?
According to Rasmussen: in Alabama Romney is 12 points out of the lead, in Georgia he’s 18 points out of the lead, and in Missouri he’s 9 points out of the lead. Florida had it’s number of delegates cut by 50% and I have not read they are guaranteed or even likely to get them back.
January 25th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
I hadn’t seen that article, but am equally perplexed why a respected journalist would ask such a heavily-loaded, bigoted question. I too wonder whether Williams was given the already-interpreted/spun question, without having reviewed the data himself. If he knowingly had reviewed the data and still spun it to the question he did, then what a shame. I can think of other races/ethnicities/religions that would be in an absolute uproar by now demanding resignation.
January 25th, 2008 at 7:12 pm
I saw Mitt on C-span addressing a Latino Builder’s Association….it looked like he had spent days putting together the speech. He talked for a long time, only glancing a couple of times at notes to make sure he got a couple of figures just right, but almost the entire thing was off the top of his head, and about 95% of it was NOT his standard stump speech. The audience was really blown away by it. He’s the master.
January 25th, 2008 at 7:18 pm
Chris Baker,
You may have missed this on another thread, but I personally guaranteed that Mitt will win here in Missouri. As for other states, Mitt will win most of the delegates in California. Colorado should be a lock. He’s polled well in Illinois. He’s massively ahead in the polls in Massachusetts and Utah. We haven’t seen any polling for some of them, so it’s hard to tell. He will have ads up in every state that looks winnable…..the other guys won’t. Let not your heart be troubled…..the good guy will do well.
January 25th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
This CWA-NJ Conservatives with attitude site shows the
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numbers, also discusses the impact of Mel Martinez support in Florida