The Candidates
SurveyUSA Florida GOP Primary Poll, Jan. 27th, 2008.
- Mitt Romney 32% (28)
- John McCain 31% (30)
- Rudy Giuliani 16% (18)
- Mike Huckabee 13% (14)
- Ron Paul 5% (6)
- Undecided 2% (3)
2,000 Florida adults were interviewed 01/27/08. Of them, 1,790 were registered to vote. Of them 608 were determined by SurveyUSA to be Republicans who had either already voted in the GOP Primary, using early voting, or who were likely to vote at the precinct on 01/29/08. Among those who said they had already voted: Romney 36%, McCain 31%. Among those who had not yet voted, but who told SurveyUSA that their mind was made-up, and they would not change it before the Primary: McCain 32%, Romney 32%. SurveyUSA will endeavor to conduct some additional interviews Monday night 01/28/08, to see if there is unanticipated last-minute movement in the contest.
January 28th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
Most accurate pollster in the 2004 election…I’ll take it!
January 28th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
I’m not sure with the one point margin, but up until the Dems in SC, SUSA was the most accurate polling firm this cycle, being off (on average) just over 1.5 points.
January 28th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
Insider Advantage has McCain up 1% on Romney but with 9% still undecided
in their Sunday night polling.
January 28th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
This continues to be razor-thin…
It seems to me, that here is where this primary is decided:
Do Rudy’s voters - seeing polls showing him consistently mired in a distant third - start giving up on him and voting for McCain?
January 28th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
New Insider Advantage #s - not sure if they are still
including independants or not.
John McCain (28%)
Mitt Romney (27%)
Rudy Giuliani (16%)
Mike Huckabee (13%)
Ron Paul (4%)
Other (3%)
Undecided (9%
January 28th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
THE McCRUMBLE IS COMING…..TOMORROW
THE HUCKABUST WILL CONTINUE…FOREVER
THE RUDY-BOOM (sorry Metro)…WILL NEVER HAPPEN.
January 28th, 2008 at 4:39 pm
Is that a diffeent one from last night?
January 28th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
Either way you put it, it’s gonna be an interesting night. Cross your fingers…..McCrumble????????????????
January 28th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
Very Nice! This is going to be a close one, but it looks like Romney has the edge. It’s time McCain had his straight talk shoved down his throat.
January 28th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
They say Jeb Bush is unhappy about Crist endorsing that it was pretty
much assumed he wasnt going to unless it was Rudy.
January 28th, 2008 at 4:41 pm
30% Romney and 27% McCain when you look at only Republican voters
January 28th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
11 - does this poll include indies then?
January 28th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
I think Rudy voter would go for ROMNEY RATHER THAN MCCAIN
January 28th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
7
yes they were tied last night in Insider Adv.
January 28th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
After losing South Carolina in 2000, McCain said “I will not take the low road to the highest office in the country.” claiming that President Bush mis-characterized his positions and was using dirty politics. 8 years later McCain is using those exact same tactics against Mitt Romney in Florida. I guess the “low road” became the easier path to take.
January 28th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
Too many of these pollsters include non-republicans. I do not understand it. Is this because it is the first closed primary of the race? In either case, this is very tight. Homeowners are deeply incentivized to vote in this cycle because of the property tax issue in Florida. Do homeowners vs. renters favor one guy over another? Is there an area where there are more renters and fewer homeowners? That may make the difference in the GOTV.
January 28th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
A couple more items- poring through the crosstabs-
It was always assumed that McCain would win 65+ easily - but he’s not. He’s doing well (36%) but Mitt leads him in that demographic with 40%. Young voterss like Huck. Huck - despite being in fourth place with 13% - would WIN, if this were only open to voters 18-34. He’s in first place with 29%.
No gender gap to speak of - the percentage of vote each candidate receives is roughly even, distributed along their overall standing.
Another intriguing note - the possibility that early voting might have saved Rudy. According to their early voting breakdown, as Jason has noted in the post, Mitt leads McCain 36%-31% - with Rudy at 18%. (In other words, Rudy’s share of early voting is not appreciably different than what he takes in, overall.)
So this triggers another question - is it better for Mitt that he has a lead among early voters? But it also means that the statistical tie overall, is already factoring in his early votes? Does that mean he needs to do better than tie it on the machines?
January 28th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
What is with Florida and close elections?
January 28th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
17 - I think it must mean that there really aren’t many early voters.
BTW, I voted in California already. Early voting is already going for those that are interested.
January 28th, 2008 at 4:50 pm
This is going to be 35 v 34 either way I think!
January 28th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
No reputable pollster is going to poll individuals ineligible to vote in a primary when polling those likely to vote in said primary. The fact that all of these polls have some “independents” included indicates that there are registered Republicans out there who are self-identifying as independents, likely because they are pissed off at the Republican Party for one reason or another, but haven’t changed their registration, thus they are still eligible to vote in the GOP primary.
January 28th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
Survey USA has Romney leading the early voters while Insider advantage has
McCain leading the early voters - FL is hard to poll accurately.
January 28th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
On this question of non-Rs in Florida- comments #12 and #16-
The primary is closed, and the deadline for switching parties, I believe, was December 30. However, the pollsters are including (what I understand to be) self-IDs Dems and inds, as long as they are registered R’s.
This poll’s crosstabs didn’t include, unfortunately, any breakdown by partisan self - id. But other crosstabs:
Conservatives (62% of the sample)
Mitt 40%
McCain 25%
Rudy 16%
Huck 14%
Moderates (25% of the sample)
McCain 47%
Mitt 19%
Rudy 14%
Huck 6%
Liberals (6% of the sample)
Huck 31% (not a typo)
McCain 28%
Mitt 14%
Rudy 13%
(The three self-Id ideologies don’t add up to 100%, presumably b/c some declined to answer…)
January 28th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
interesting crosstabs
Romney gets 44% of the Hispanic vote to McCain’s 22%
Romney edges McCain (36 to 31) in early vote and Romney doubles Rudy’s early vote (36 to 18)
Top issues:
Economy (37%) Mitt’s 42 to McCain’s 25
Immigration (17%) Mitt’s 41 to McCain’s 17
McCain’s weekend attacks make perfect sense - no doubt his internals revealed all of this earlier.
hahhh hahahhah hahahahh
January 28th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
Prediction
Mitt wins Fl by 3%
Romney 31%
McCain 28%
January 28th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
21
you will be surprised people have showed up here at the polls surprised
they couldnt vote in a party that were independants.
January 28th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
BYE, BYE RUDY:
According to Drudge Rudy is considering to drop out
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/01/breaking-news-i.html
January 28th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
Interestingly, close does not matter when it comes to the FL delgates (its winner take all), but a close race does give the second place finisher a reason to be optimistic and to keep going. But I suspect it will not end up as close as the polls. I predict at least a 5% winning margin.
January 28th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
I find the hispanic numbers kind of hard to believe however
with Romney. They look too high possibly.
January 28th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
[...] 1-28-2008] McCain and Romney tied in low 30s for first, Huckabee and Rudy tied in low teens for 3rd place. [...]
January 28th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
Schnitt just endorsed Rudy over the rush hour drive throughout Florida.
http://schnittshow.newsradio610.com/main.html
January 28th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Yogi - too little to late for Mr Schnitt I’m afraid
January 28th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
BEWARE………….
The RETURN……………..
January 28th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Its ALWAYS better to have your votes banked with early voting. Once someone has confrmed voting, you can take them off your call lists and work of the soft and undecided voters.
Also keep in mind that there is a decent chance that the “may change my mind” voters are not going to show up to vote at all.
I would suspect that many Huck and Rudy supporters will not show up at all, making the McCain and Romney averages go up, not because they are switching, but because the available universe of votes shrinks.
January 28th, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Props to #27 Falz for finding that LATimes story-
I am astonished that Rudy would say something like that to the media on Primary Eve. As you’ll see if you read that link, he categorically states that tomorrow’s winner takes the nomination. Obviously, unless there is a massive shift to him in the next 24 hours, that winner will not be him.
I’m not surprised that Rudy has reached the conclusion that this is the end of the road for him, with a loss. With all of the news about staff not being paid and the campaign’s $$$ trouble, we’ve all expected that a loss would end his candidacy. The part that I find surprising is the fact that he would ACKNOWLEDGE that fact to the media on Primary Eve. It will depress the morale of his GOTV efforts. There has to be something else in the dynamic here…
January 28th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
#31 - Who gives a Schnitt?? (Sorry I couldn’t resist)
January 28th, 2008 at 5:01 pm
So, essentially the only time left for voters to make up/change their minds in Florida is tonight during the nightly news broadcasts. I don’t anything has happened of note today, so we may not see anymore movement. This is probably how it will end up looking tomorrow.
January 28th, 2008 at 5:04 pm
#35, why would you conclude that statement would depress morale? Isn’t it just as likely to get them fired up if everything is on the line?
January 28th, 2008 at 5:08 pm
Where the hec does Rudy say that he is quitting?? This is more left-wing propaganda again. Rudy is saying that he will win Florida.
“In a meeting in the back of his chartered plane en route to St. Petersburg, Fla., a short while ago, the onetime, longtime GOP front-runner told a small group of reporters, including The Times’ Louise Roug: “The winner of Florida will win the nomination.”
He then went on to predict he would win. And his spokeswoman, Maria Comella, said later he was speaking with confidence.”
January 28th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
Schnitt is re-endorsing Rudy all over the rush hour air waves throughout Florida.
http://schnittshow.newsradio610.com/main.html
January 28th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Go Rudy! Shock McCain and take back some votes.
January 28th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
Drudge has been a tool for Mitt since the beginning (he’s got a friendship with Mitt’s oppo guy.) The Romney camp is trying to use Drudge to peel away votes from Rudy… not unlike the “anonymous” sources who told The Politico Fred was dropping out, the day before the Iowa caucuses.
January 28th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
Rudy is poised to bounce back big time - nothing is certain in this race and we’ve already seen that the polls can’t be trusted.
No way does Rudy finish under 20%. Absolutely no way does that happen.
January 28th, 2008 at 5:19 pm
David - slam Drudge all you want - but you may want to read the LA Times article… the article makes no mention of Drudge.
January 28th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
Could it be that Mitt is doing well amongst the hispanics because his son Craig gets up and opens the stump speeches with his own in Spanish? He is very fluent having served a mission for two years in a Spanish speaking country.
January 28th, 2008 at 5:21 pm
#44 - I did read the article. And neither the LAT or Drudge have any justification for saying that what Rudy said hints at his dropping out - he’s always said a win in Florida is decisive.
January 28th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
43. Wanna bet? Rudy is not going to hit 20. It’s pretty funny. He’s not even within 10 points of the lead in ANY poll. Most of the time he’s down 15 or more!
January 28th, 2008 at 5:30 pm
Rudy supporters should flock to Romney so that the GOP stays alive…McCain = Death of GOP!
January 28th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
Let’s get real; Rudy said the winner of Florida will win the nomination, with an average of 15-17% one day before the FL primary how on earth could he say that if he’s not considering to drop out after tomorrow?.
January 28th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
Ilfigo
I agree any Rudy supporters should support Romney so we don’t see the death of the GOP. McCain will be killed in the general because 40% of the party won’t vote for him.
January 28th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
Cindy McCain said today that Fl was do or die for their campaign. Seems McCain and Giuliani agree the winner of FL will be the nominee.
January 28th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
Metro, we see here that Florida voters are the lemmings you never thought they were.
The early states have had a decisive impact on Florida. Rudy’s going on the attack on John McCain finally.
A bit too late though.
January 28th, 2008 at 7:32 pm
Just out of curiosity, does Cindy (that’s his wife, right?) McCain ever give speeches or
say anything, i have never seen her talk or do anything, but look grumpy with ole’ mand
grumpy, kinda like John Kerry’s wife (Heinz), all nasty and grumpy, except McCain’s wife
looks classy and is very good looking (in a sick grandma kinda way)…i wonder if John
McCain’s EX is voting for him.
January 28th, 2008 at 7:40 pm
One issue that I haven’t seen mentioned…
The property tax issue on the Florida ballot will result in a stronger than typical turnout, and will therefore likely result in a higher percentage of moderayte voters than would normally be represented in a Republican primary (though the primary voters will better represent the full spectrum of the party).
Obviously, this will play to McCain’s advantage. I am assuming that the pollsters have tried to factor this into their sampling. If not, McCain’s actual vote totals will liekly exceed expectations.