These are the closest exit polls yet. I’d note though that the Michigan exit polls had Romney winning by something like 5% instead of 9. So they’re not infallible. 1.6% is still small enough to easily swing the other way. That said, Rudy clearly isn’t going to pull out a miraculous upset.
Without getting into the pros and cons of Intrade, does anyone remember at what point in the day the Michigan Intrade started to swing from McCain to Romney? Seems to me it was much earlier, and that this time it might hold for McCain.
The economy was far and away the number one issue. That bodes very well for Romney. But then again, we’re talking about Floridians here: “Florida, baffled by even the simplest of tasks.â€
The exit polls aren’t going to tell us much right now. It’s such a close race, that depending on where they poll it will edge over in one direction or another.
I say we just call it right now. Mitt’s Got the PCB vote locked up. That’s good enough for me.
From Campaign spot:
ANOTHER UPDATE: From a local television station in Panama City: “We spoke to some exit pollers and looked at their numbers. These numbers are unofficial but it looks like Mitt Romney is ahead by a landslide in the area.
Don’t forget that Romney had an extensive early/absentee voting operation that won’t be counted until 8 and can’t be factored into the exit polls. Could be the deciding factor.
That was not what I asked. In fact, you completely ignored the first part of my statement in which I said I did not want to get into an Intrade pissing match.
This is statistically a tie. Its not that “ground needs to be made up,” its that at this point we have no particular reason to think McCain is ahead of Romney. The economy numbers look good for Romney, but the moderate and independent numbers look good for McCain.
Don’t trust these exit poll numbers. Let’s recall that exit polling had Bush getting throttled by Kerry in 2004. WE all know how that worked out. These numbers are within the margin of error. It’s a statistical tie, and it’s completely irrelevant. Patience.
The working people havent even voted yet. Its the same reason the first wave in MI only had romeny up by 5. By the time the workers got to vote he went up 4 point.
McCain supporters flooding Intrade to drive up his stock? Could be possible. I really don’t see how McCain has risen so much considering almost 50% of the voters name the economy as the number 1 issue.
I agree, Bwett. I don’t know how they would know what really happened with the early vote either. The lpolls on the early vote have been all over the place.
Romney is going way down (26 last I checked) on Intrade…this is hard to figure…the exit polling showing economy as top concern would seem to heavily favor Romney…we’ll just have to wait and see I guess
I just went back to the early exit polls during the Michigan primary, and universally we were saying Romney was up 4-5% after they were leaked. He won by 9%. So again, there’s a whole lot of room for movement. If Romney loses with 50% concerned about the economy…well, that’s unexpected to say the least.
guys that take SC as our benchmark for exit polls-
They had 4 waves of exit polls and they went back and forth between Huck and Mccain.
This is either the first or the second wave. we also do not know what time they completed the exit interviews. If it is the first wave, was it pre lunch time, if the second wave was it pre 2pm/3pm?
Little to nothing can be deduced from it.
Anectdotally the early voters tend to be retired/older people, the after 5pm crowd tend to be the working people.
So if you want to conclude that the daytime voter has Mccain ahead ok. But that ought to be expected.
It’s not just exit polls I go on. It’s the fact that pre election polling suggested McCain was ahead. Also absentee ballots were likely to favor McCain since many were cast before Thompson dropped out (so Romney lost potential votes.)
51, ecomomy favors Mitt, age favors McCain, 2 point lead favors McCain, early voting probably means Guiliani will do better, but no where near enough, hard to say how early voting will split out between Romney and McCain, Guiliani probably took more vote from McCain…
Too close to call, I might ease into a little Romney on Intrade if these dopes keep selling it so hard.
SurveyUSA has McCain and Mitt tied at 30% among early voters. And almost every Florida poll I’ve seen showed Romney leading among early voters. So I’m not sure where you’re getting your info.
Mike pre-election polling was all over the place some had McCain up others Romney.I think people who are buying McCain right now are jumping the gun. They’ll be greatly dissapointed later on tonight.
Anyone confident about the returns needs to cool it.
There’s not an accurate enough way to gauge early voting. In addition exit polls are usually only reliable after they’ve been adjusted with turnout figures released before vote totals.
Add are probably 60-70% that McCain will take it. So as I said, by no means guaranteed, but McCain was a good buy before intrade went nuts a few minutes ago.
The volume being traded on Intrade in the FL market is into many thousands for the day, so it’s not insignificant.
I suggest you watch the overall nomination markets. There is bigger money there. Big traders may be trading the FL results there rather than in the FL specific contracts. If they start moving significantly, that adds a lot more confidence to what’s happening in the FL specific markets.
Michigan swung for Romney quite early, by mid morning.
For the Rombots, the best piece of encouragement from Intrade is from SC; McCain was down to mid thirtys at midday, and Huck up in 60s. We know how that turned out…
Rudy got only 26% from hispanics as per Fox; that is so low it is difficult now to see him above 20% in the final count. Martinez boosted McCain to 50% of hispanic vote.
McCain can fix the economy, afterall. Crist told the Floridians this everyhwere the last couple,of days. His endorsement made the difference. Thanks, Jeb, for remaining neutral.
RightPundit - “The exit data that I have seen so far does not cause me to lean one way or the other. I have been driving and working on a PDA. I can personally state that the Romney camp is now very confident that they will prevail.”
Why did Jeb stay neutral? Its obvious to most (i.e the intelligent politicos) that this race was a Romney/McCain fight, foreshadowing a Jeb Bush/Crist fight for influence over Florida & potential national aspirations.
I hope McCain didn’t promise Crist a VP slot. The guy is way too green for that.
I can’t believe this! I hope Florida is hit with such terrible hurricanes this year that the population is decimated. God save us all from the idiots.
Guys calm down. No vote returns have come in yet. Exit polls are being leaked before they’ve been calibrated for turnout (which won’t be know by the exit polling firms for another hour).
That’s just the point. Right now, Jeb is still the Godfather of Florida Republican politics. If he waded in against Crist and Romney lost, it’d probably be a clear signal of a changing of the guard. Alot of risk there potentially, though realistically I’m not convinced that Jeb needs to control the party to get any office he’d like in Florida.
I blame 2 people specifically if McCain wins. Neither Jeb Bush nor Rush Limbaugh had the stones to endorse the one person that they both paid lip service to. I’m especially disappointed in Rush.
Matthew (#130), what office would Jeb want in Florida? He’s hardly going to want to move into the House of Reps, and if he wanted a Senate seat he should have challenged Nelson in 2006.
I think if McCain wins it will signify a changing of the guard anyway. Crist will almost certainly be re-elected in 2010, and by that stage Jeb will have been off the stage for a while.
One interesting point to note. No Floridan has been on a national ticket for over 100 years. How bizarre is that for a large swing state?
The exit polls show McCain leading on the ground 34-33 without early voting; they show Mitt leading in early voting 34-28. Early voting made up approximately 1/3 of total votes (projected).
That means, all total, Mitt ought to pull this one out.
So Geraghty is saying absentees made up 1/3 of the vote, but in the exit poll they make up about 1/4 of the sample. I wonder if this is why Romney has rebounded a bit on intrade.
You know, I think I could make a fortune watching Geraghty’s campaign spot and playing Intrade. Every time he posts something, the numbers go crazy in the way he posted.
Your one-sided presentation of the issues does wonders for your credibility. Where’s your slam on McCain for all the lies he’s stuck to over the last four days about Romney’s Iraq positions. I need to get a shovel for all your &^%&*.
I’m a Bush supporter from the UK. Stayed up ’til 2 in the morning watching the State of the Union. Following Huckabee, but realise that he hasn’t a hope in Fl. Think he’ll probably com ein third, effectively knocking Rudy out of the race and hopefully drawing enough votes from flip-flop self funder Romney to allow McCain to win outright. Right now a Huckabee/McCain ticket is looking like a winner in the general to me…
Q. “Do you believe there should be a timetable in withdrawing the troops?”
A. “Well, there there is no question but that the President and Prime Minister al-Maliki have to have a series of timetables and milestones that they speak about. But those shouldn’t be for public pronouncement. You don’t want the enemy to understand how long they have to wait in the weeds until you’re gonna be gone.
“You want to have a series of things you want to see accomplished, in terms of the strength of the Iraqi military and the Iraqi police and the leadership of the Iraqi government.”
Q. “So you wouldn’t do it publicly?…”
“Well of course, can you imagine a setting where during the Second World War where we said to the Germans, well, gee, if we haven’t reached the Rhine by this date why, we’ll go home, or we haven’t gotten this accomplished, we’ll pull up and leave. You don’t publish that to your enemy, or they just simply lie in wait until that time.
So of course you have to work together to create timetables and milestones, but you don’t do that with the opposition.”
A McCain/Huckabee ticket is a small possibility, but McCain has enough trouble keeping the GOP establishment together without poking them in the eye by picking Huck as his VP.
FL better go w/ Mitt. McCain (retarded on economics) would open the race to Bloomberg. Bloomberg would then siphon off a chunk of McCain’s support and the Democratic nominee would win.
McCain will not be able to win in November - I guarantee it.
#171 Metro,
You didn’t finish the second question:
“So, private. You wouldn’t do it publicly? Because the president has said flat out that he will veto anything the Congress passes about a timetable for troop withdrawals. As president, would you do the same?”
A “Well of course” is referring to vetoing the bill like Bush.
181: well, however many minutes it was there, I had enough time to cash out and make a killing. I plan to continue exploiting the stupidity of the market. I suppose in a way I’m helping correct it.
metro - if its true, thats a dirty trick by mitt. but politics is dirty, and most people agree that mccain started the dirty business in florida, this time around .
Another Detail From the Exits, and Some Background
Interesting. I’m now hearing that absentees made up one third of the total vote (this is from the source who believed the numbers were the first wave) and the absentees preferred Romney, 34 percent to 28 percent. Giuliani is described as “far behind.”
The exit polls with McCain are second surge polls not the older first surge and exit polls…..Romney is beating McCain 34 to 28 percent with those…….Looking good for Mitt!!!!
I wouldn’t discriminate against a Homosexual in the workplace, but when it comes to representing me to the world and making policy decisions, I wouldn’t want Crist representing me.
I don’t know where all this Crist mania came from to be honest. Perhaps I am out of the loop.
Metro - nobody can say they disagree with the position that Romney took in that interview. Even I, when I was advocating that we stay in Iraq as long as it took, thought that there should be benchmarks.
You just want us to stay there indefinitely? There need to be achievable goals set that can be worked towards, and they need to be reviewed constantly - to make sure that we are actually accomplishing something over there.
And once we’ve met our goals - which we shouldn’t announce to the insurgents and terrorists - we should start to return control of Iraw to the Iraqi people. That’s just common sense. It doesn’t mean we leave them high and dry - it means we establish goals, we work towards meeting those goals, and then we call it a job well done and leave enough troops there to run our embassy and help train the Iraqis and give support on logistical matters.
One note of caution I have never seen Fox’s polls give conservatives(Republicans) there due. Maybe that will apply here. They were one of only a very few to have Kerry winning in 04 the day before the vote and every poll they put out seems to have the Republican doing worse than he really is. Maybe that could apply here. McCain is a little liberal.
Bloomberg has no differentiating characteristics to battle against Romney. Self-funding has little effect, private sector business experience has little effect. He would be useless against Romney.
Metro
that is the stupidest argument. it is indefencable.
I could take a couple of my good friend McCains words and make a case that he is gay. It would be a lie (I think) just like Mac’s dirty lie about Romney. This is stupid and dishonest, will there be more from the Bullsh@# Express??????????????????????????????
Jims exit poll numbers did include early voting but what is really at issue is whether or not the exit poll was the first wave or second wave.
Morning voters will be more for Mccain than for anyone else- why because they are the retired people who dont have to work anymore(lucky devils).
The afternoon crowd one would expect to be mixed
The evening crowd would be expected to favor Romney more than MCcain.
Is it me or do Huckabees numbers seem a little low at 12%? I thought he was polling around 14-15% . If that continues were do you think his voters went?
“Once the plane lifted off the ground, Josh Romney — apparently the daredevil of the five brothers — stood near the front of the almost vertical plane in socks on top of a Romney sign and slid down the aisle — twice.”
The only reason you see all these odd quirks on Intrade is because the volume is so low. A few hundred $ is enough to shift it significantly on the minor markets (like the current election.) Eventually the free money will stop flowing once the volume picks up. Until then, grab a bucket.
The REAL Truth, I posted the video and Mitt’s words. The real truth hurts, doesn’t it, when you find out Mitt Romney is a disgusting traitor to U.S. national security?
I don’t care if Crist is gay personally, but I do care that he’s repeatedly denied it, and that he’s been accused of sleeping with male prostitutes. Either way it’s death on a national ticket.
Huckabee is an idiot. He should have been campaigning elsewhere instead of getting his but kicked in FL. Just like he went to MI, and let Fred get the drop on him in SC.
Huck gives a good speech but is an empty suit when it comes to strategy.
Metro what Mitt said was less of a pull-out statement than what McCain said, and the MSM never shows what McCain said, and you won’t address it either.
Romney didn’t cave - he’s a businessman that expects results. He understands that the only way you get results is if you set expectations. Bush has set expectations since the end of the actual invasion - the Iraqi government hasn’t always been the greatest, but they know what they are working towards and by reviewing progress, we can better understand how to get there.
To suggest that creating goals, working towards those goals, and then re-evaluating your position after those goals have been met is simply caving to the Democrats is ludicrous. That is what any sane, level-headed, goal-oriented person would do.
bjlader26, I already addressed that. But your brain is too small to process it.
Romney was RIGHT about timetables should be PRIVATE and not PUBLIC — if you have to have timetables.
But he was DEAD WRONG there should be timetables. Especially caving in to them when the Dems and country were demanding timetables for withdrawal, and everyone knew full well what that word meant, then.
He even SPELLED IT OUT: “You don’t want the enemy to understand how long they have to wait in the weeds until you’re gonna be gone.” And that was BEFORE the 2nd question you’re trying to confuse the issue with.
Every major news organization has admitted that McCain lied about Romney calling for a timetable for withdrawal. He said the milestones and timetables should be between the Iraqi commander-in-chief and the President, and that they were milestones that “they speak of” but not milestones for complete withdrawal.
107 shows how ugly Romney supporters are.
How inhumane to wish hurricanes/death on innocent people.
Ever hear of Karma, Ohiorepub?
And you Romney idiots want respect for the Mormon prophet???
McCain does much better among retired people, Romney among working people - it only makes sense that McCain would have led early exit polls, because many Romney supporters will probably not vote until after work.
Metro: “Mitt Romney is a disgusting traitor to U.S. national security”
Thats not a very nice thing to say. Settle down.
Its sad when politics has reached the stage where the main competition to “our choice” becomes the Devil Incarnate, siring children from black mistresses, having gay lovers, stealing money from the poor, and anything else designed to make people hate them.
I don’t blame Mark Warner for stepping away from the POTUS race, to protect his teenage kids.
Joseph D. Walch, not Byron York. And if this issue gets bigger, that video will be more closely examined by the media, and many pundits will be forced to admit they made a mistake.
I am ANYBODY but McCain, including Hillary Clinton. But McCain is right on this issue.
There is a difference between a timetable for complete withdrawal and “timetables and milestones” for measuring performance.
By the way, does Giuliani have a Timetable. . .
for withdrawing from the race???
I’m just having a little fun of course. Sadly, I think Giuliani would be a more reliable conservative (even in SoCon issues) than rock-throwing McCain.
#227 Get real, I watched that interview, the argument was about whether we should have NO PLAN whatsoever or set a timetable so we would at least have an end in sight. Romney took a third path, sure you have goals, plans, timetables, benchmarks to access your progress, but you don’t set a date for withdrawl, and you don’t make your plans public. That was what Romney stood for and it’s obvious from the context.
bjalder26, describing his proposal HE SAID: “You don’t want the enemy to understand how long they have to wait in the weeds until you’re gonna be gone.”
Why does everyone take everything people say here so seriously? If someone says Florida should be wiped out, why do I have to listen to someone tell me I’m inhumane? Obviously, it’s a joke. Let’s lighten up here people. The only ones who shouldn’t be taken seriously here are Metro, sampo, TLG, and nowandlater. Because they’re all crazy.
Are you suggesting we should never leave? If there is ever to be a scale-down in US forces and a return of power to the Iraqi people, we DO HAVE to leave, there’s no way around that fact. Not letting them know that if they lay low for three years (or whatever number you want to throw in there) they don’t have to deal with significant US forces is irresponsible.
And his point still stands - it’s a point that President Bush has made several times.
Lets face it, politics is the opposite to hurricanes anyway.
Hurricanes you have the calm before the storm.
Politics, you have the storm before the calm.
Everyone is going ballistic on this site, with predictions, worries, exit polls & tenuous data showing one candidate edging ahead by 0.5%.
In just a few hours, the votes will be in, the winner will be announced & we can all calm down & congratulate the winner, commiserate with the losers & move on.
I guess that’s what some people’s problem is. They say Romney is flip-flopping when they just don’t understand plain english. Words do mean something. Unfortunate that McCain didn’t learn how to use his words in the Naval acadamy (except the occasional F, S, or A epithet).
January 29th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
McCain up by 2 in first wave of exit polls: http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ODA5YmUxMTEwMDk1Y2ViMGMzOGFjNDRlOWI4NzU5YTg=
January 29th, 2008 at 5:39 pm
at what time will Fox/CNN/MSNBC start reporting tonight?
January 29th, 2008 at 5:40 pm
http://www.ksl.com/?nid=157&sid=2570688
some preliminary data from exit polls
January 29th, 2008 at 5:40 pm
McCain makes me vomit in my mouth.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa! mac up in the exit polls! i told you suckas romney was going down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Intrade vindicated! Intrade Guy Vindicated!!!!!
January 29th, 2008 at 5:42 pm
“Margin of sampling error plus or minus 4 percentage points for each primary.”
January 29th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
These are the closest exit polls yet. I’d note though that the Michigan exit polls had Romney winning by something like 5% instead of 9. So they’re not infallible. 1.6% is still small enough to easily swing the other way. That said, Rudy clearly isn’t going to pull out a miraculous upset.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
uhhh… how can exit polls be accurate when 40% of Florida voted during the last 2 weeks?
January 29th, 2008 at 5:44 pm
#4 A lot of us have McCain reflux.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
Working people are just getting to the polls, and Mitt has been running strongest in the middle age group
January 29th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
Florida…they include those folks, though I can’t tell you precisely how that works.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:46 pm
On #8. The link says it includes absentees. There is a distinction between absentees and early voting so not sure what exactly they’re accounting for.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:46 pm
Remember though, the economy is the top issue according to this and CNN.
Good sign.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:46 pm
Without getting into the pros and cons of Intrade, does anyone remember at what point in the day the Michigan Intrade started to swing from McCain to Romney? Seems to me it was much earlier, and that this time it might hold for McCain.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:46 pm
The economy was far and away the number one issue. That bodes very well for Romney. But then again, we’re talking about Floridians here: “Florida, baffled by even the simplest of tasks.â€
January 29th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
No they don’t… Exit polls are not accurate when you vote for 2 weeks straight and have such a massive absentee vote population…..
These exit polls are going to be WAY off….
January 29th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
“yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa! mac up in the exit polls! i told you suckas romney was going down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Intrade vindicated! Intrade Guy Vindicated!!!!!”
You’re celebrating being up by 1.8? That can easily be overtaken.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
Is there any credible scenario in which the contest for the nomination ends tonight, by which I mean Romney or McCain drops out?
January 29th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
How can they include absentees from exit polls? I thought you voted absentee because you wouldn’t be enering or exiting the polls.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
intrade is the worst all day 64 36
Come on Floridians, get your head out of the sand.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
14 - That would be true if Intrade had any prescient abilities whatsoever. But it doesn’t.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
The exit polls aren’t going to tell us much right now. It’s such a close race, that depending on where they poll it will edge over in one direction or another.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
They include early voting in the exit polls.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
BEWARE…………….
The RETURN…………………….
January 29th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
I say we just call it right now. Mitt’s Got the PCB vote locked up. That’s good enough for me.
From Campaign spot:
ANOTHER UPDATE: From a local television station in Panama City: “We spoke to some exit pollers and looked at their numbers. These numbers are unofficial but it looks like Mitt Romney is ahead by a landslide in the area.
That seals the deal for me!
January 29th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
19 - Greg, they include polling data they did prior to today. It’s a very inexact science.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
Don’t forget that Romney had an extensive early/absentee voting operation that won’t be counted until 8 and can’t be factored into the exit polls. Could be the deciding factor.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
BWett,
That was not what I asked. In fact, you completely ignored the first part of my statement in which I said I did not want to get into an Intrade pissing match.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
just got worse 65 35
January 29th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
On #18. Nope. Both will stay in it, as they should.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
No chance Axel. No chance.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
Woo! Boo! Eh.
There, I think I’ve covered all the grounds.
This is statistically a tie. Its not that “ground needs to be made up,” its that at this point we have no particular reason to think McCain is ahead of Romney. The economy numbers look good for Romney, but the moderate and independent numbers look good for McCain.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
Kevin, they included early/absentee voting into the exit polls.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
I have seen some early voting polls with Mitt having a 9% lead, and some with JMac having a 6% lead.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
It’s early. We’ll find out in two hours.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
28 - Take it easy. I was just indicating that how Intrade did in predicting Michigan won’t be indicative of how it does in Florida. Nothing more.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
66 to 38 on intrade now.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
I’m trading on intrade right now. All signs point to towards a mccain victory.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
On #34. That’s interesting. have any links?
January 29th, 2008 at 5:50 pm
They were given a random sample of early voters and allowed to call those voters and poll them. At least that’s my understanding
January 29th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
Don’t trust these exit poll numbers. Let’s recall that exit polling had Bush getting throttled by Kerry in 2004. WE all know how that worked out. These numbers are within the margin of error. It’s a statistical tie, and it’s completely irrelevant. Patience.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
I shorted Romney when he was trading at 55. Sweet deal. Went long on McCain when he was at 57.
No guarantees, but likely I will come out well tonight.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
The working people havent even voted yet. Its the same reason the first wave in MI only had romeny up by 5. By the time the workers got to vote he went up 4 point.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
McCain supporters flooding Intrade to drive up his stock? Could be possible. I really don’t see how McCain has risen so much considering almost 50% of the voters name the economy as the number 1 issue.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
I agree, Bwett. I don’t know how they would know what really happened with the early vote either. The lpolls on the early vote have been all over the place.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
I remember this exit stuff back in 2004.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:53 pm
Romney is getting worked on Intrade right now. A lot of people are going to lose a lot of money if those exit polls are off.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:53 pm
“The working people havent even voted yet”
That’s Romney’s support.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:53 pm
I found 2 authoritative links explaining that exit pollsters conduct telephone polling to incorporate the early/absentee voters.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/exit_polls_what_you_should_kno_1.php
January 29th, 2008 at 5:53 pm
Romney is going way down (26 last I checked) on Intrade…this is hard to figure…the exit polling showing economy as top concern would seem to heavily favor Romney…we’ll just have to wait and see I guess
January 29th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
I just went back to the early exit polls during the Michigan primary, and universally we were saying Romney was up 4-5% after they were leaked. He won by 9%. So again, there’s a whole lot of room for movement. If Romney loses with 50% concerned about the economy…well, that’s unexpected to say the least.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
Well, polls close for the majority of counties in Florida in 7 minutes. More data to come?
January 29th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
Remember the panhandle is Romney country and has an extra hour for close/results..
January 29th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
After Florida it will be McCain vs. Romney vs. Huckabee with Giuliani out.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
Damn, it’s 73 to 20 on intrade now.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/662/exit-polls-primary-problems
January 29th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
MSNBC almost seems to be hinting that Mitt is going to win this thing.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
guys that take SC as our benchmark for exit polls-
They had 4 waves of exit polls and they went back and forth between Huck and Mccain.
This is either the first or the second wave. we also do not know what time they completed the exit interviews. If it is the first wave, was it pre lunch time, if the second wave was it pre 2pm/3pm?
Little to nothing can be deduced from it.
Anectdotally the early voters tend to be retired/older people, the after 5pm crowd tend to be the working people.
So if you want to conclude that the daytime voter has Mccain ahead ok. But that ought to be expected.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:55 pm
Ouch, Romney down to 10 now. That’s not a good sign. That’s an awful big jump to be based on only an exit poll.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:55 pm
It’s not just exit polls I go on. It’s the fact that pre election polling suggested McCain was ahead. Also absentee ballots were likely to favor McCain since many were cast before Thompson dropped out (so Romney lost potential votes.)
January 29th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
On #57. how so?
January 29th, 2008 at 5:56 pm
polls dont close for most of Florida for another hour and 2 more hours in the panhandle.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:57 pm
Wow. I don’t know why, but that’s one hell of an Intrade swing. 85-15 now.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:57 pm
51, ecomomy favors Mitt, age favors McCain, 2 point lead favors McCain, early voting probably means Guiliani will do better, but no where near enough, hard to say how early voting will split out between Romney and McCain, Guiliani probably took more vote from McCain…
Too close to call, I might ease into a little Romney on Intrade if these dopes keep selling it so hard.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:57 pm
I do think Romney should do a little better in the 5pm to 7pm voting but by how much?
January 29th, 2008 at 5:57 pm
Not looking good. Give me some good news please.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
intrade is obviously using itself as a source of information.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
84 to 21 on intrade now
January 29th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
Mike,
SurveyUSA has McCain and Mitt tied at 30% among early voters. And almost every Florida poll I’ve seen showed Romney leading among early voters. So I’m not sure where you’re getting your info.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
62 - Whoops. You’re correct.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
Mike pre-election polling was all over the place some had McCain up others Romney.I think people who are buying McCain right now are jumping the gun. They’ll be greatly dissapointed later on tonight.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
Look at MI romeny gained 4 points from the working people
January 29th, 2008 at 5:58 pm
Guess what people - “economy” voters don’t automatically default to Mitt.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
If you really believe in Romney, now’s the time to buy in.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
Anyone confident about the returns needs to cool it.
There’s not an accurate enough way to gauge early voting. In addition exit polls are usually only reliable after they’ve been adjusted with turnout figures released before vote totals.
January 29th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
71: nah, towards the end almost all polls showed McCain ahead by 2-1 points (some by more)
January 29th, 2008 at 6:00 pm
Add are probably 60-70% that McCain will take it. So as I said, by no means guaranteed, but McCain was a good buy before intrade went nuts a few minutes ago.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:00 pm
Mike:
Several polls I looked at still had Mitt ahead on the early votes.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:01 pm
The volume being traded on Intrade in the FL market is into many thousands for the day, so it’s not insignificant.
I suggest you watch the overall nomination markets. There is bigger money there. Big traders may be trading the FL results there rather than in the FL specific contracts. If they start moving significantly, that adds a lot more confidence to what’s happening in the FL specific markets.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:01 pm
76 - Um, no. Inaccurate. And, I think it’s important to add that a 1-2 point advantage is statistically zero, because of the margin of error.
We have a lot of rookie poll readers in here.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:01 pm
Guys will you SHUT up about friggin’ intrade. It’s not a crystal ball it’s just reactionary!
January 29th, 2008 at 6:02 pm
McCain up 9 with Seinors.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:02 pm
Well, Fox News has Seniors going for McCain by 9%. But he only wins among vets by 1%.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:02 pm
Pulling in 50% of Hispnic vote.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
80: 1-2 points means nothing when one polls shows it. When 4-5 show the same, it becomes statistically meaningful. I have a math degree by the way.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Jason, chill out. We’re just talking about it, no biggie.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
McCain up with Ecomany voters.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Polls close at 7pm (8pm EST in Panhandle), right?
January 29th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Alright I’m cashing out. I made my money, no sense risking it on exit polls.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Wow, Fox reporting on exit polls: Hispanics 50% McCain, Rudy 26%, Mitt can’t remember, very little.
Who’d've thought McCain’s position on immigration might seal the nomination for him?
January 29th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Up 9 with seniors is big….
January 29th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
#14 Patrick
Michigan swung for Romney quite early, by mid morning.
For the Rombots, the best piece of encouragement from Intrade is from SC; McCain was down to mid thirtys at midday, and Huck up in 60s. We know how that turned out…
January 29th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Paul…McCain is winning on the economy?
January 29th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
On #87. really? that would really suggest a McCain win.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:04 pm
Yeah, I think McCain wins. They have him freaking winning by 4% among those concerned with the economy. Absolutely unbelievable. Awful, awful news.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:04 pm
McCain seems to be winning the economic vote.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:04 pm
That’s totally insane
January 29th, 2008 at 6:04 pm
94, the economy is a different issue in FL than it is in MI.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:05 pm
95 - Where did you read that?
January 29th, 2008 at 6:05 pm
Rudy got only 26% from hispanics as per Fox; that is so low it is difficult now to see him above 20% in the final count. Martinez boosted McCain to 50% of hispanic vote.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
McCain can fix the economy, afterall. Crist told the Floridians this everyhwere the last couple,of days. His endorsement made the difference. Thanks, Jeb, for remaining neutral.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
It seems Romney is only winning identified conservatives convincingly - he is in trouble if seniors are backing McCain by 9%.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
#53, how is the panhandle Romney country?
All the analysis I read suggested it was McCain country, with lots of vets, etc.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
Well if McCAin is winning the economy votes, then he should have it in the bag!
Shame on FLA…the man himself staes that he is not well versed on the economy.
Sad day for GOP!
January 29th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
But let’s wait & see . . . it’s still early.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
Jebs a JACKASS
January 29th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
I can’t believe this! I hope Florida is hit with such terrible hurricanes this year that the population is decimated. God save us all from the idiots.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
I think everyone is jumping the gun just a little bit.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
With Hispanics breaking that way I dont know how Romney can win.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
McCain won’t fix the economy because-
HILLARY IS OUR NEXT PRESIDENT FOLKS!!!!
January 29th, 2008 at 6:07 pm
Rombots, a nugget of good news, maybe:
RightPundit - “The exit data that I have seen so far does not cause me to lean one way or the other. I have been driving and working on a PDA. I can personally state that the Romney camp is now very confident that they will prevail.”
January 29th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
Huck will cut into Romney in the panhandle..
January 29th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
Romney would need a huge boost from the working class.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
Looking good for McCain if he wins the economy voters. Quite bizarre really, the guy is not exactly an expert on the economy.
Very ironic if his immigration stance wins him Hispanics in such numbers that he takes the FLorida primary & therefore the nomination.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
McCain CAN fix the economy, by sending us all back to school.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:09 pm
103 - the crazy stat Fox gave was McCain only up by 1% with Veterans but that doesnt seem to correlate with being up 9% with seniors ?
January 29th, 2008 at 6:09 pm
Romney back up to 20.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:09 pm
Why did Jeb stay neutral? Its obvious to most (i.e the intelligent politicos) that this race was a Romney/McCain fight, foreshadowing a Jeb Bush/Crist fight for influence over Florida & potential national aspirations.
I hope McCain didn’t promise Crist a VP slot. The guy is way too green for that.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:10 pm
The other crazy stat Fox gave was that evangelicals are breaking to Romney.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:10 pm
Rudy has one delegate. Maybe Judy Nathan can be his delegate.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
I can’t believe this! I hope Florida is hit with such terrible hurricanes this year that the population is decimated. God save us all from the idiots.
Uh. . .
January 29th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
Guys calm down. No vote returns have come in yet. Exit polls are being leaked before they’ve been calibrated for turnout (which won’t be know by the exit polling firms for another hour).
January 29th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
#118 “I hope McCain didn’t promise Crist a VP slot.”
I hope it won’t matter, but I think he probably did.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
jeb is officially a tool. we dont need another bush in the white house.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
Exactly. And the exit polls are statistically a tie and VOTING HASN’T EVEN FINISHED YET. You’re being hysterical for nothing.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
Maybe it was just the early voting seniors saying McCain was good on the economy. lol
January 29th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
Jaype if Crist is put on the ticket we’ll lose massively.
Fewer Americans will vote for a homosexual VP than would vote for a Mormon.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
IF MCCAIN WINS, HILLARY WILL BE OUR NEXT PRESIDENT!!!!!!
January 29th, 2008 at 6:13 pm
How is “John I know very little about economics McCain” winning among economy voters? Bad sample of people apparently.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:13 pm
JayPe,
That’s just the point. Right now, Jeb is still the Godfather of Florida Republican politics. If he waded in against Crist and Romney lost, it’d probably be a clear signal of a changing of the guard. Alot of risk there potentially, though realistically I’m not convinced that Jeb needs to control the party to get any office he’d like in Florida.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
“IF MCCAIN WINS, HILLARY WILL BE OUR NEXT PRESIDENT!!!!!!”
That’s way too early to say…it could be Obama.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:15 pm
“The other crazy stat Fox gave was that evangelicals are breaking to Romney.”
I can believe that, they went for him in Michigan and most probably realize Huckabee is no longer viable.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
NRO says Romney up by 6 amongst absentees…
January 29th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
If McCain gets the nod, I’m staying home in November.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
Can someone explain to me how McCain is up 9% with seniors but only up 1% with veterans - who are mostly seniors in FL?
January 29th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
I blame 2 people specifically if McCain wins. Neither Jeb Bush nor Rush Limbaugh had the stones to endorse the one person that they both paid lip service to. I’m especially disappointed in Rush.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
Romney apparently won “early voters” 34 to 28 according to Geraghty. That must mean it’s been a poor day on the ground for Mitt.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
and absentees make up 1/3 of vote.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
I think “veterans” includes active duty, too. Tons and TONS of active duty folks down here.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
McCain is up 2 with Mormons
January 29th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
Matthew (#130), what office would Jeb want in Florida? He’s hardly going to want to move into the House of Reps, and if he wanted a Senate seat he should have challenged Nelson in 2006.
I think if McCain wins it will signify a changing of the guard anyway. Crist will almost certainly be re-elected in 2010, and by that stage Jeb will have been off the stage for a while.
One interesting point to note. No Floridan has been on a national ticket for over 100 years. How bizarre is that for a large swing state?
January 29th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
is crist gay? i thought he was just super fabulous and had a great tan!
January 29th, 2008 at 6:18 pm
Irish, Mitt pissed off Jeb, the same way he pissed off every major candidate in the race.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
JayPe,
True enough. I’m a bit flummoxed. My best guess is that rumors he had soured on Romney were indeed accurate.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
People we have no idea who is going to win yet……….The late voters will go Romney…….
January 29th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
haha 65 35 on Intrade
January 29th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
Geraghty - “I’m now hearing that absentees made up one third of the total vote … and the absentees preferred Romney, 34 percent to 28 percent.”
January 29th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
The exit polls show McCain leading on the ground 34-33 without early voting; they show Mitt leading in early voting 34-28. Early voting made up approximately 1/3 of total votes (projected).
That means, all total, Mitt ought to pull this one out.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
That initial Intrade reaction was crazy. Settling back down now. Just made some sweet cash.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
intrade back to 36-60
January 29th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
#142 No Crist is not gay, but the guy who lives with him is. Just kidding, he signed the Florida ban on gay marriage petition, so I doubt he’s gay.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
McCain 64.7 Romney 36 on Intrade
January 29th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
So Geraghty is saying absentees made up 1/3 of the vote, but in the exit poll they make up about 1/4 of the sample. I wonder if this is why Romney has rebounded a bit on intrade.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
Romney hits McCain — from the left.
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=Y2JkZDAwMzljZTQwMDA3NzZhOGI3MGIyODdkZDE0YTQ=
Read the link. Despicable, typical Romney.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
Intrade is showing BIG gains by ROmney now.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
No, the exit polls taken in account the early vote Matt C.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
I love how schizophrenic Intrade is. You can make a killing if you can catch the peaks.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
Matt C, the exit polls factor in the early/absentee voting via telephone polling. I posted 2 links above on this.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
“Irish, Mitt pissed off Jeb, the same way he pissed off every major candidate in the race.”
By opposing Shamnesty?
January 29th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
Mccain is finished after today
January 29th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
You know, I think I could make a fortune watching Geraghty’s campaign spot and playing Intrade. Every time he posts something, the numbers go crazy in the way he posted.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
There is no such thing as absentee votes in exit polls. Don’t be fooled.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
161: Bingo.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
Its not schizophrenic, it moves based in interpretation of the exit polls.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
Justin, see #49 and #56.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
Metro,
Your one-sided presentation of the issues does wonders for your credibility. Where’s your slam on McCain for all the lies he’s stuck to over the last four days about Romney’s Iraq positions. I need to get a shovel for all your &^%&*.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
I’m a Bush supporter from the UK. Stayed up ’til 2 in the morning watching the State of the Union. Following Huckabee, but realise that he hasn’t a hope in Fl. Think he’ll probably com ein third, effectively knocking Rudy out of the race and hopefully drawing enough votes from flip-flop self funder Romney to allow McCain to win outright. Right now a Huckabee/McCain ticket is looking like a winner in the general to me…
January 29th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
164: yeah but the interpretation is nuts. Do you really think the probability of Romney winning objectively dropped to 10% because of exit polls?
January 29th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
Did anyone catch CNN where they showed a 5 second clip and Huckabee STILL found time to insult Romney?
January 29th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
Justin we went through this. Jim say the 34.3-32.6 number includes early vote.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
Ohio, McCain was right about those:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=LVkftphrdsw
Starting at 1:23
Q. “Do you believe there should be a timetable in withdrawing the troops?”
A. “Well, there there is no question but that the President and Prime Minister al-Maliki have to have a series of timetables and milestones that they speak about. But those shouldn’t be for public pronouncement. You don’t want the enemy to understand how long they have to wait in the weeds until you’re gonna be gone.
“You want to have a series of things you want to see accomplished, in terms of the strength of the Iraqi military and the Iraqi police and the leadership of the Iraqi government.”
Q. “So you wouldn’t do it publicly?…”
“Well of course, can you imagine a setting where during the Second World War where we said to the Germans, well, gee, if we haven’t reached the Rhine by this date why, we’ll go home, or we haven’t gotten this accomplished, we’ll pull up and leave. You don’t publish that to your enemy, or they just simply lie in wait until that time.
So of course you have to work together to create timetables and milestones, but you don’t do that with the opposition.”
January 29th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
What is this ‘return’ people are speaking of? Return from what?
January 29th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
Mitt back to 40 on Intrade.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
Sheeesh who’s the final word on this primary? I don’t have all day to know whether I’m moving to Australia or not.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
Where does Rudy go after today?
January 29th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
IF MCCAIN IS NOMINATED, SAY HELLO TO PRESIDENT HILLARY!!!
January 29th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
A Huckabee/McCain ticket ain’t going to happen.
A McCain/Huckabee ticket is a small possibility, but McCain has enough trouble keeping the GOP establishment together without poking them in the eye by picking Huck as his VP.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
FL better go w/ Mitt. McCain (retarded on economics) would open the race to Bloomberg. Bloomberg would then siphon off a chunk of McCain’s support and the Democratic nominee would win.
McCain will not be able to win in November - I guarantee it.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:25 pm
Intradeguy
might get a big suprise
January 29th, 2008 at 6:25 pm
I think McCain can win in November — and that is my worry.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:25 pm
168, how many minutes was it at 10? Not long. There are always overreations, that is human psychology.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
#171 Metro,
You didn’t finish the second question:
“So, private. You wouldn’t do it publicly? Because the president has said flat out that he will veto anything the Congress passes about a timetable for troop withdrawals. As president, would you do the same?”
A “Well of course” is referring to vetoing the bill like Bush.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
The REAL Truth, Intrade Guy is a parody. It is really Ohio Repub.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
‘Cause whether McCain or Hillary crush the economy, the outcome for little people like me is the same.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
BEWARE…………….
The RETURN………………..
January 29th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
More from Geraghty @ NRO…
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YTc1OWU0MzYzMWRiYzAwNTRkNDNhYzFiNThlZjE1ZDk=
January 29th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
I sure hope that Mccain picks up Huckabee
January 29th, 2008 at 6:26 pm
175, Rudy goes to NYC, back home. He is done.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
Jack, that refers to PUBLIC timetables. He’s still for TIMETABLES, just private. That put him one small rung above the Democrats.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
181: well, however many minutes it was there, I had enough time to cash out and make a killing. I plan to continue exploiting the stupidity of the market. I suppose in a way I’m helping correct it.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:28 pm
Rocko (#178) if McCain wins then Bloomberg will not run. I think Bloomberg even said that.
The reason is, Bloomberg hates partisan politics, and runs as a non-partisan. McCain is non-partisan (e.g. McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy).
So Bloomberg will only run if Romney or Huckabee wins the GOP side.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:28 pm
So whose territory is the NW part of FL supposed to be? Are their polls closing later (I thought they were in the Central time zone)?
January 29th, 2008 at 6:28 pm
metro - if its true, thats a dirty trick by mitt. but politics is dirty, and most people agree that mccain started the dirty business in florida, this time around .
January 29th, 2008 at 6:28 pm
I am not Intrade Guy. I joked about it once. Please don’t associate me with him.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
Another Detail From the Exits, and Some Background
Interesting. I’m now hearing that absentees made up one third of the total vote (this is from the source who believed the numbers were the first wave) and the absentees preferred Romney, 34 percent to 28 percent. Giuliani is described as “far behind.”
The exit polls with McCain are second surge polls not the older first surge and exit polls…..Romney is beating McCain 34 to 28 percent with those…….Looking good for Mitt!!!!
January 29th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
EGS, True
I wouldn’t discriminate against a Homosexual in the workplace, but when it comes to representing me to the world and making policy decisions, I wouldn’t want Crist representing me.
I don’t know where all this Crist mania came from to be honest. Perhaps I am out of the loop.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
McCAin is not- “NON-partisan”. HE IS A LIBERAL!!!
January 29th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
Metro - nobody can say they disagree with the position that Romney took in that interview. Even I, when I was advocating that we stay in Iraq as long as it took, thought that there should be benchmarks.
You just want us to stay there indefinitely? There need to be achievable goals set that can be worked towards, and they need to be reviewed constantly - to make sure that we are actually accomplishing something over there.
And once we’ve met our goals - which we shouldn’t announce to the insurgents and terrorists - we should start to return control of Iraw to the Iraqi people. That’s just common sense. It doesn’t mean we leave them high and dry - it means we establish goals, we work towards meeting those goals, and then we call it a job well done and leave enough troops there to run our embassy and help train the Iraqis and give support on logistical matters.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
How in the heck could any intelligent person with the economy as their top consideration vote for anyone other than Mitt Romney? He’s amazing!
January 29th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
Romney just hit 43 on Intrade
January 29th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
Intrade is more stable now, like it was before the “Exit Poll Incident.”
January 29th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
One note of caution I have never seen Fox’s polls give conservatives(Republicans) there due. Maybe that will apply here. They were one of only a very few to have Kerry winning in 04 the day before the vote and every poll they put out seems to have the Republican doing worse than he really is. Maybe that could apply here. McCain is a little liberal.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
Bloomberg has no differentiating characteristics to battle against Romney. Self-funding has little effect, private sector business experience has little effect. He would be useless against Romney.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:31 pm
Don’t forget that Huckabee can play dirty too! Somehow it just doesn’t get noticed as much with a southern twang.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:31 pm
Metro
that is the stupidest argument. it is indefencable.
I could take a couple of my good friend McCains words and make a case that he is gay. It would be a lie (I think) just like Mac’s dirty lie about Romney. This is stupid and dishonest, will there be more from the Bullsh@# Express??????????????????????????????
January 29th, 2008 at 6:31 pm
201, it will initially go crazy again when the next round of exit polls is released.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:31 pm
Justin, Romney caved with TIMETABLES for pulling out when the Democrats and the country were demanding them. Period.
It’s an unrelated issue, but, yes, we have far better reasons to stay in Iraq 50+ years than we did in Germany, Japan, Korea.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
Metro, in that same interview he said he would veto any bill that set a date for withdrawl. Please do us a favor and shovel it somewhere else.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
Great way to spin it redline. McCain is going to win. This is so sad.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
Jims exit poll numbers did include early voting but what is really at issue is whether or not the exit poll was the first wave or second wave.
Morning voters will be more for Mccain than for anyone else- why because they are the retired people who dont have to work anymore(lucky devils).
The afternoon crowd one would expect to be mixed
The evening crowd would be expected to favor Romney more than MCcain.
Is it me or do Huckabees numbers seem a little low at 12%? I thought he was polling around 14-15% . If that continues were do you think his voters went?
January 29th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
MORE ROMNEY SLEDDING…ON A PLANE!
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/01/29/619228.aspx
“Once the plane lifted off the ground, Josh Romney — apparently the daredevil of the five brothers — stood near the front of the almost vertical plane in socks on top of a Romney sign and slid down the aisle — twice.”
Those Romney’s and their sledding
January 29th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
204, Huck always lets someone else get dirty for him, and then moralizes about how he is above being dirty.
This kind of tactic is part of why Huck has faded.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
The only reason you see all these odd quirks on Intrade is because the volume is so low. A few hundred $ is enough to shift it significantly on the minor markets (like the current election.) Eventually the free money will stop flowing once the volume picks up. Until then, grab a bucket.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:33 pm
The REAL Truth, I posted the video and Mitt’s words. The real truth hurts, doesn’t it, when you find out Mitt Romney is a disgusting traitor to U.S. national security?
January 29th, 2008 at 6:33 pm
#205 Of course that would be a lie, a man who cheats on his wife with another woman can’t be gay.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:33 pm
Joseph Walch,
I don’t care if Crist is gay personally, but I do care that he’s repeatedly denied it, and that he’s been accused of sleeping with male prostitutes. Either way it’s death on a national ticket.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:33 pm
Intrade:69 McCain 39 Romney
SAD!
January 29th, 2008 at 6:33 pm
Redline,
Where are you getting your sources from??
January 29th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
#214 More like you’re a disgusting traitor to TRUTH and HONESTY. Actually I guess you have to change sides to be a traitor.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
for the last time…THE EXIT POLLS INCLUDING ABSTENNE VOTING.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
MetroRepublican your a complete Moron………Your argument proves nothing……….Deal with it!!!!
January 29th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
Huckabee is an idiot. He should have been campaigning elsewhere instead of getting his but kicked in FL. Just like he went to MI, and let Fred get the drop on him in SC.
Huck gives a good speech but is an empty suit when it comes to strategy.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
210
I think Fox is claiming in their numbers that Romney was winning the evangelical vote over Huckabee.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
Metro what Mitt said was less of a pull-out statement than what McCain said, and the MSM never shows what McCain said, and you won’t address it either.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
Metro,
Romney didn’t cave - he’s a businessman that expects results. He understands that the only way you get results is if you set expectations. Bush has set expectations since the end of the actual invasion - the Iraqi government hasn’t always been the greatest, but they know what they are working towards and by reviewing progress, we can better understand how to get there.
To suggest that creating goals, working towards those goals, and then re-evaluating your position after those goals have been met is simply caving to the Democrats is ludicrous. That is what any sane, level-headed, goal-oriented person would do.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
Even McCain’s fan club (the NY Times) admits that the timetables thing was dishonest.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
bjlader26, I already addressed that. But your brain is too small to process it.
Romney was RIGHT about timetables should be PRIVATE and not PUBLIC — if you have to have timetables.
But he was DEAD WRONG there should be timetables. Especially caving in to them when the Dems and country were demanding timetables for withdrawal, and everyone knew full well what that word meant, then.
He even SPELLED IT OUT: “You don’t want the enemy to understand how long they have to wait in the weeds until you’re gonna be gone.” And that was BEFORE the 2nd question you’re trying to confuse the issue with.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
Metro,
Every major news organization has admitted that McCain lied about Romney calling for a timetable for withdrawal. He said the milestones and timetables should be between the Iraqi commander-in-chief and the President, and that they were milestones that “they speak of” but not milestones for complete withdrawal.
So you’re a McCainiac now that Rudy has tanked?
January 29th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
Did anyone see the front page of Foxnews.com? Check out Huckabee’s photo
January 29th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
Mitt Romney is in better shape with the latter polls according to some sources in florida…… Mitt for the Win Baby!!!!!!
January 29th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
New exit poll numbers just released from The Naples Daily News
http://www.naplesnews.com/news/2008/jan/29/exit-polls-find-out-whos-leading-share-you-opinion/
January 29th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
229, that is the same stupid look Huck always has on his face.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
107 shows how ugly Romney supporters are.
How inhumane to wish hurricanes/death on innocent people.
Ever hear of Karma, Ohiorepub?
And you Romney idiots want respect for the Mormon prophet???
January 29th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
McCain does much better among retired people, Romney among working people - it only makes sense that McCain would have led early exit polls, because many Romney supporters will probably not vote until after work.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
go mitt
January 29th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Most of the precincts close in 20 minutes or so. Is getting exciting.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Metro: “Mitt Romney is a disgusting traitor to U.S. national security”
Thats not a very nice thing to say. Settle down.
Its sad when politics has reached the stage where the main competition to “our choice” becomes the Devil Incarnate, siring children from black mistresses, having gay lovers, stealing money from the poor, and anything else designed to make people hate them.
I don’t blame Mark Warner for stepping away from the POTUS race, to protect his teenage kids.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Joseph D. Walch, not Byron York. And if this issue gets bigger, that video will be more closely examined by the media, and many pundits will be forced to admit they made a mistake.
I am ANYBODY but McCain, including Hillary Clinton. But McCain is right on this issue.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
#229 - Huckabee looks like a rat grinning at a piece of cheese.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
No dudes. It’s gonna be Romney. Just called my brother in FL and he said EVERYBODY’s for Romney. Now that’s scientific. I’m going to go celebrate.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
Metro,
There is a difference between a timetable for complete withdrawal and “timetables and milestones” for measuring performance.
By the way, does Giuliani have a Timetable. . .
for withdrawing from the race???
I’m just having a little fun of course. Sadly, I think Giuliani would be a more reliable conservative (even in SoCon issues) than rock-throwing McCain.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
#227 Get real, I watched that interview, the argument was about whether we should have NO PLAN whatsoever or set a timetable so we would at least have an end in sight. Romney took a third path, sure you have goals, plans, timetables, benchmarks to access your progress, but you don’t set a date for withdrawl, and you don’t make your plans public. That was what Romney stood for and it’s obvious from the context.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
McCain is a traitor to his ex-wife who he left high and dry!!!!!!!!!!!! What a Scum Bag!!!!!
January 29th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
Even the NY times admits that, I don’t know why you can’t let the lie go.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
Imagine if the difference in votes between Mitt and McCain was smaller than Fred’s vote total.
Fred would be the spoiler again!
January 29th, 2008 at 6:39 pm
Metro’s guy is going down today. Do us all a favor and ignore him for a day or two.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:39 pm
Did huckabee even have positions on foreign policy before this?
January 29th, 2008 at 6:39 pm
It’s a pretty decent pic. You can’t tell he’s cross-eyed.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:39 pm
bjalder26, describing his proposal HE SAID: “You don’t want the enemy to understand how long they have to wait in the weeds until you’re gonna be gone.”
January 29th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
Metro
You’re just like McCain dishonest - He says right in the interview that he would NOT sign any bill with TIMELINES.
I hate liars
January 29th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
Intrade back to 73-30 for McCain.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
Why does everyone take everything people say here so seriously? If someone says Florida should be wiped out, why do I have to listen to someone tell me I’m inhumane? Obviously, it’s a joke. Let’s lighten up here people. The only ones who shouldn’t be taken seriously here are Metro, sampo, TLG, and nowandlater. Because they’re all crazy.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
#249 and you disagree with that statement?
January 29th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
#250, that’s the right position: no timetables. Did you get things reversed in your little brain again?
January 29th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
Now someone finally said it. Those are the guys I think are crazy, too! Strung to tight, y’know?
January 29th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
bjalder26, #249 is proof Mitt supported timetables for withdrawal. He was describing his own policy.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
Metro is like Mr. Magoo on this issue. He can only see what he wants to see. It’s not worth discussing with him.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
Metro,
Are you suggesting we should never leave? If there is ever to be a scale-down in US forces and a return of power to the Iraqi people, we DO HAVE to leave, there’s no way around that fact. Not letting them know that if they lay low for three years (or whatever number you want to throw in there) they don’t have to deal with significant US forces is irresponsible.
And his point still stands - it’s a point that President Bush has made several times.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:43 pm
okay, enough about the timetables. seriously, reasonable minds can disagree. enough said. shut up already!
January 29th, 2008 at 6:43 pm
who’s winning among evangelicals?
January 29th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Lets face it, politics is the opposite to hurricanes anyway.
Hurricanes you have the calm before the storm.
Politics, you have the storm before the calm.
Everyone is going ballistic on this site, with predictions, worries, exit polls & tenuous data showing one candidate edging ahead by 0.5%.
In just a few hours, the votes will be in, the winner will be announced & we can all calm down & congratulate the winner, commiserate with the losers & move on.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
What did you guys think about Cloverfield? Or Rambo for that matter?
January 29th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Let’s just start the chant now, Metro can lead off. mitt mitT, miTT, mITT, MITT MITT MITT!
January 29th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Is it too early for Huckabee to declare victory?
January 29th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Cliff, it’s not a tricky issue. Watch the video. It’s crystal clear Mitt was for timetables for withdrawal.
Your only argument is that it was an impostor and not really Mitt Romney on that video.
January 29th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Real Truth,
I guess that’s what some people’s problem is. They say Romney is flip-flopping when they just don’t understand plain english. Words do mean something. Unfortunate that McCain didn’t learn how to use his words in the Naval acadamy (except the occasional F, S, or A epithet).
January 29th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
LMAO here!!!!!!
January 29th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
#254 um, not it’s not.