The Candidates
Mitchell Research Florida 1/27-28/08
- Romney 34%
- McCain 32%
- Giuliani 13%
- Huckabee 10%
- Paul 3%
- Undecided 7%
The telephone poll of likely voters in the Florida Republican Primary Election was conducted by Mitchell Interactive, an East Lansing, Michigan and Washington, DC based national political polling and market research company. The survey of 964 likely Republican Presidential Primary voters has a margin of error of +-3.16% at the 95% level of confidence.
January 29th, 2008 at 8:26 am
These polls are simply insane.
January 29th, 2008 at 8:28 am
Very interesting. I think they will be calling this race at 2 a.m.
January 29th, 2008 at 8:30 am
Mitchell gives me a lot of hope–they’re reliabe. Something that I can’t figure though is why Romney was tied with McCain for voters who had already voted on Sunday night then on Monday night he took a 9% lead among that group…??
I know that doesn’t mean a bunch of people voted on Monday but it still is weird…
January 29th, 2008 at 8:33 am
14 hours till McCain concession speech.
January 29th, 2008 at 8:34 am
SurveyUSA rated Mitchell as the 3rd most reliable firm.
January 29th, 2008 at 8:35 am
Today could be the day that Romney takes down McCain. GO MITT!!!!
On another note: Romney has been trying to make us believe for a year now that he is a conservative, so if he is in the general and moves to the center or left of center I’m done with Mitt. I worry that this could be the election cycle that conservatism dies.
January 29th, 2008 at 8:36 am
If the voting is close, do any of you think there will be a demand by one of the candidates for a recount?
January 29th, 2008 at 8:37 am
IAHawk who is your canidate of choice?
January 29th, 2008 at 8:39 am
Very interesting point IAHawk, and that is particularly relevant given Romney’s recent attacks calling McCain liberal. He will get absolutely hammered if he flips.
January 29th, 2008 at 8:40 am
I know that this isn’t going to change any McCainiac minds, but Quin Hillyer reports another example of McCain’s perfidity here. The sense of entitlement that this arrogant man clearly feels is palpable. I will be happy to vote against him should (God forbid) he become the nominee.
January 29th, 2008 at 8:41 am
I’m backing Romney, but he needs to prove to me that he is a conservative. I will not vote for the other republican candidates.
January 29th, 2008 at 8:42 am
Is that who you voted for in the caucuses? Romney is the truest conservative all around in terms of who’s running imo
January 29th, 2008 at 8:43 am
No, I voted Fred Thompson
January 29th, 2008 at 8:43 am
cool, just interested. Tonight is going to be an all nighter…actually it’s almost 11pm here (I’m overseas at the moment)
January 29th, 2008 at 8:44 am
J.Martin - I understand that FL has a mandadatory recount of any election in which there is a .5% or less difference between 1st and 2nd place.
As to your question about a demand of a recount - I don’t thin that will come into play tonight.
I suspect this is going to break 4-6% between 1st and 2nd - well outside the relevance of a recount.
January 29th, 2008 at 8:46 am
Mitchel did the very best calling Michigan +4 for Romney. They were the closest to getting Michigan right (+9)
January 29th, 2008 at 8:47 am
I agree with Jeffery on the 4-6%
January 29th, 2008 at 8:48 am
McCain up 0.5 in the RCP. All we need now is a final Insider Advantage poll showing Romney up 1 point. You know, just to make things close.
January 29th, 2008 at 8:49 am
14
Where?
January 29th, 2008 at 8:49 am
If there’s a recount, I’m not watching it this time. I’ll wait until somebody tells me who won.
January 29th, 2008 at 8:51 am
IAHawk: On another note: Romney has been trying to make us believe for a year now that he is a conservative, so if he is in the general and moves to the center or left of center I’m done with Mitt. I worry that this could be the election cycle that conservatism dies.
Of course he is going to move to the center, at least a little, so will McCain or Rudy, or Huckabee or Hillary or Barack. The general is a different beast and you are targeting different voters.
January 29th, 2008 at 8:51 am
Ah, okay. Thank you, Jeffrey.
January 29th, 2008 at 8:53 am
What no one wants to post the ARG poll? Today they look pretty reasonable.
Romney 34
McCain 32
January 29th, 2008 at 8:53 am
My final hope here is that, with the race really too close to call, and with no signs of momentum for either side, organization really will matter this time. Romney’s been building an organization in Florida for a year. McCain ignored the state until a month or two ago. That seemed to be a factor in Romney’s unexpectedly large Michigan victory- another state where he’d been building an organization for a considerably longer period of time then McCain.
January 29th, 2008 at 8:53 am
I will say that he will not flip back to any 1994 positions, I think he will just continue to focus on issues that appeal to people across the board, like h e is now, as oppossed to talking a lot about the social issues that are more divisive between the two parties.
January 29th, 2008 at 8:58 am
I disagree about McCain, he is already center left and I think he likes it there. I understand the general is a different animal and a different campaign style is necessary. Romney can ignore talking about the republican red meat issues that he speaks about now, but if he changes his position on those issues is my point
January 29th, 2008 at 8:58 am
Swint,
Romney’s not going to talk alot about social issues. But, he won’t ignore them. He’ll certainly emphasize his family and the need for family values (whether he spends alot of time talking about specific social issues is another question). Usually, a general election just reflects a shift in emphasis. Romney will emphasize his economic experience, he’ll emphasize his work in healthcare (something that has heretofore been a liability), he’ll emphasize his role in cleaning up the scandal ridden Olympics (ethics), and he’ll emphasize his tax cuts to the Middle Class. Beyond that, I wouldn’t expect to see him talking about anything substantially different then he’s been talking about all year. There’s really no reason for him to; he’s been running on a conservative agenda, but nothing in his platform is inherently unappealing to moderates. He can sell economic conservatism to them, and he can soft-sell social conservatism. I have a feeling that Republicans won’t much need to sell Iraq by that point.
January 29th, 2008 at 9:00 am
Swint,
The three issues Romney is likely to flip-flop on if he gets the nom are Iraq, healthcare, and the environment because those are issues dems see an advantage on.
January 29th, 2008 at 9:02 am
Matthew,
Thanks for saying what I was trying to say in much, much better terms.
Axel, if he does flip, I think it will be those issues, but I don’t think Mitt is that stupid. He knows that he more than any other candidate cannot afford to change positions on an issue. He is the only one that gets crucified for it. McCain changes all the time, and no one bats an eye.
January 29th, 2008 at 9:06 am
Romney will actually not lose on health care with independants due
to Mass. plan - even though he will make it clear its a state issue.
January 29th, 2008 at 9:07 am
It would be funny if the ARG poll had it dead on this time.
January 29th, 2008 at 9:09 am
<i.Romney has been trying to make us believe for a year now that he is a conservative, so if he is in the general and moves to the center or left of center I’m done with Mitt.
I guarantee that in the general election Mitt Romney will, at least rhetorically, sound more centrist than he does now. Guarantee.
January 29th, 2008 at 9:10 am
Romney’s always been somewhat centrist on the environment. He still talks about the need to combat Global Warming, but emphasizes that we can’t wreck our economy doing so, when top competitors like China, who emit more greenhouses gases then us, get a free pass. And I’m 100% sure that he won’t flip on that issue. Clearly, he’ll talk more about healthcare, though he certainly won’t “flip’ on the issue. He doesn’t really need to; his national plan is conservative, but less conservative then say Rudy’s, and more likely to appeal to centrists. He certainly won’t flip on Iraq, if only because it wouldn’t be prudent to do so. I’d argue he’d also stay tough on that issue due to principle, but even assuming he’s a cynical panderer, Iraq will likely be going well enough at that point that it’ll be the Dems trying to flip on the issue.
January 29th, 2008 at 9:12 am
Romney will win by at least 6.
January 29th, 2008 at 9:16 am
The three issues Romney is likely to flip-flop on if he gets the nom are Iraq, healthcare, and the environment because those are issues dems see an advantage on.
I don’t think Dem perceptions on Iraq are matching either the reality on the ground or the reality of public perception right now. I think the facts are with us on that one.
As for healthcare and the environment, Romney’s core experience and core passions are economic ones. If we do get healthcare reform I imagine it will be pro-market reform that will be much better than the dem alternatives and that conservatives can live with. And on global warming, I think Michigan showed us that Romney rightly thinks that massive global warming regulation is blazingly stupid and that if we have to do something to ease the public’s mind, by far the best thing to do is to fund lots of research into technology (energy independence, energy efficiency, and carbon sequestration technology).
I think we’ve seen from his Massachussets experience that Romney is pretty good at jujitsu: seeing what liberal issues are popular with the public and coming up with conservative alternatives, like doing MassCare instead of the single-payer govt. health system the liberals were pushing out there.
January 29th, 2008 at 9:20 am
Good news for Romney all around. While McCain had the momentum Sunday with the Crist endorsement, it appears now that his momentum is over. If you look at the 3 polls that have been released so far where you can see Monday vs. Sunday results, both Mitchell and Zogby had improvements for Romney’s numbers in the daily calls. The other poll (Survey USA) had an improvement for McCain, but Survey USA’s poll had very screwy internals on Sunday as it had the Latino vote going to Romney by 2x.
Other thing to mention is that it looks like Giuliani will finish a distant 3rd and Huckabee will be 4th. As a result, there will probably be a lot of pressure for Giuliani to step down given his performance to date. Further, with Huckabee not being in the top 3, there will be pressure on him as well. As a result, the media will probably try to turn this into a 2 man race (which may not have happened if either Giuliani or Huckabee finished one spot higher).
January 29th, 2008 at 9:26 am
“I think we’ve seen from his Massachusetts experience that Romney is pretty good at jujitsu: seeing what liberal issues are popular with the public and coming up with conservative alternatives”
Well spoken. I would say that Romney can take issues that Republicans would rather ignore, because liberal plans are so poor and find REAL solutions that help everybody.
A more recent example is immigration. McCain’s liberal plan is a mess. Romney’s plan makes sense and would be good for America.
January 29th, 2008 at 9:35 am
Romney’s true ability is to stake out positions that are non-controversial to his political ambitions. He’s never shown an example of rowing against the prevailing current in the name of principle. And that’s where political character is demonstrated.
Seriously, has there EVER been a time where he took an unpopular stand, because it was something he believed in?
January 29th, 2008 at 9:43 am
#38 Wasn’t it the McCainiacks who were saying that his view on illegal immigration would lose him the Hispanic vote? How do you LOSE a debate, then argue that the other person is just picking the more favorable side?
January 29th, 2008 at 9:44 am
#38 Can we really fault Romney for running on SOUND policies?
January 29th, 2008 at 9:48 am
#40 - LOL. That’s pretty funny. Reminds me of the old chestnut “There go the people, and I, as their leader, must follow them!”
All you’ve shown is that Romney is very good at sensing where the people whose support he desires want to go, and molding his stances accordingly. It’s good politics, but it ain’t leadership.
January 29th, 2008 at 9:51 am
I know there’s been a lot of argument about which polling company is best, especially in this FL race, but looking over the recent polls on RCP, everyone seems to agree that both Romney and McCain are sitting in the low 30s. I predict that this is how the race will end, unless it turns out that there is some group that will produce a greater than expected turnout (a la evangelicals in IA or independents in NH).
January 29th, 2008 at 9:51 am
Romney is definitely the only one right now with a real upward movement.
January 29th, 2008 at 9:51 am
#41 “All you’ve shown”-dumb
I know this is just a talking poing for you guys, but look at Health Care. Not a Republican issue until Mitt got his hands on it and solved the problem. His solution was so brilliant, that the other Republicans have to steal parts of it while criticizing him.
So there you go, you can stop spreading that stupid talking point now.
January 29th, 2008 at 9:55 am
#44 -
January 29th, 2008 at 9:57 am
Does anyone know where you can watch the Florida primary numbers in progress?
January 29th, 2008 at 10:02 am
Florida Intrade numbers now show:
McCain 52.5
Romney 47.0
Mitt is +3 this morning, the same movement happened on the day of Michigan, he started moving up slowly and then WHAM he was up 25 to 30 points, Since he started moving up 3-4 hours before polls closed I think it might have had something to do with “leaked” internal polls/exit polls, hopefully we follow the same trend in Florida.
January 29th, 2008 at 10:03 am
miller makes a good point about organization. My understanding is that romney’s win in michigan by 9 points was LARGELY due to organization. without it he would have still one but not by such a marigin. that gives me hope that he will win the day because he has an insane amount of resources there in florida at the moment.
lets go mitt!! lets avoid nominating someone who knows nothing about the economy which is th emost important thing to keep strong if we are going to have a super power military.
January 29th, 2008 at 10:03 am
#46 Shawnie,
I don’t think anyone can release those numbers until the polls close at 7:00pm est tonight, we will just have to sit tight.
January 29th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Here is why I say Romney may flip on Iraq, healthcare and the environment. Because of the surge the dem nominee will say it is both safe and prudent to begin pulling troops out. The GOP position has been to leave troops in, almost indefinitely. Regardless of which position you believe to be correct the voters favor the dem position and therefore there will be pressure on Romney to move toward withdrawal. There is no question that McCain, OTOH, would stick to the GOP position.
On healthcare Romney does not have a “universal” plan, rather he wants to give each state incentive to reach its own plan and he offers his MA plan as an example. Problem is the MA plan is showing real signs of trouble (eg, huge cost overruns) and Obama has come out against the individual mandate in the MA plan. If Romney runs against Obama it will be Romney who is on the defensive and he will have to make his plan more universal to neutralize the issue.
Finally, Romney has been hedging his bets on the environment by stating that the US can’t take steps to curb global warming without China and India doing so as well. This argument allows him to both believe in global warming while giving a reason for not doing much about it. This is a passable position in the primary, but not in the general because Obama will argue that America must in fact lead the effort and that creating green technologies will boost the economy. For those of you familiar with the Australian election you know that Howard lost because he denied global warming. Romney will have to move toward the dem position or he will definitely lose states facing coastal errosion like Florida and maybe even Georgia.
January 29th, 2008 at 10:04 am
If the exit polls are leaked, you can often find them on the Drudge Report. It is way to early for this though…
January 29th, 2008 at 10:04 am
42, nagthag, maybe it is teh conservatives this time that will show up in droves to sway the results to avoid a mccain victory. heres to all around conservatives!! its our turn to make a point!!
January 29th, 2008 at 10:07 am
#52 John,
Great point, this is a closed primary so we finally have a say in who we want as our nominee, lets not screw it up….You listening Florida? Do us all a favor and get your vote out for Mitt Romney. I also heard that a lot of Hucks support is shifting to Mitt, not sure how true that is.
January 29th, 2008 at 10:40 am
#50 I’m sorry, but I don’t believe you have actually been following this race.
January 29th, 2008 at 10:45 am
This talking point about the Massachusetts plan failing is ridiculous. Sure more people are signing up for insurance, and many of those are going to be low income, thus get help obtaining insurance. All this does though is move the government spending the high cost of providing insurance to the lower cost of helping people get insured. As a bonus, everybody’s insurance costs go down as a result of unrecovered costs NOT being passed on to others.
January 29th, 2008 at 11:01 am
You are entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts. Cato published a paper last year stating that the MA plan as approx $200 million in the red, partly because costs were not faling as predicted. Also, people were choosing to pay the fine rather than buy the insurance so it was not reaching universality. I am nevertheless grateful that MA tried because the feds can learn from MA’s mistakes.
January 29th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Axel,
If you’re going to understand this election, you have to start by gaining some understanding of Romney…..right now you don’t have a clue. In the first place, study Mitt’s actual record and the positions he’s taken in the past. In 1994, he actually ran on a very conservative platform….you will see this for yourself if you simply read the positions he ran on. He has moved to the right since, and flipped on abortion. He’s never flipped on anything else. The worst sin he’s committed in terms of constancy is occasional hyperbole, as in his lifelong hunter statement, that technically, BTW, is true. HE DOESN’T FLIP. Look for him to attack Obama relentlessly on the practical problems inherent in single-payer health-care plans, and offer private insurance solutions as an alternative. He’s the only Republican that can win that issue. You will see repackaging, because an election campaign is essentially a marketing campaign…..BUT YOU WON’T SEE ANY FLIPS!
January 29th, 2008 at 11:11 am
Axel,
How can you call Mitt’s health care plan a failure?? 450,000 were uninsured before it, and now 150,000 are. That means that 300,000 citizens who didn’t have health care now HAVE it! That’s a very good thing. Also, everybody who DOES have it, pays less for it. That too, is a very good thing. If Mitt would have gotten everything he wanted in the final legislation, it would be working even better. $200 Million is virtually nothing….He inherited a $3 Billion deficit which he eliminated in 6 months without raising taxes, and you’re concerned with $200 Million??
January 29th, 2008 at 11:44 am
Rasmussen daily tracking (NATIONAL)
Romney 29
McCain 27
Huckabee 18
Giuliani 12
Paul 7
January 29th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
7% undecided
January 29th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
$200 million annual overruns is very significant to a state. A fiscal conservative would not say otherwise. And Romney did raise taxes and its just a lie to say different.
January 29th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
#49 - thanks but darn!
January 29th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
McCain is and old, cantankerous fart who needs to stop lying about romneys record!!!!!!! Better yet McCain needs to dig a deep hole and throw his sorry ass in it!!!!!