January 31, 2008
Huckabee gets love from the ladies
Last night in the debate several media outlets have declared their winners, and Huck came out on top from several of them. Huck has always played well in the polls with regard to women. Last night was no exception. Since women will likely be key in 2008, this is an important story.
One particular lady seemed very pleased with Mike:
(Nancy is supporting McCain, although not publicly)
Politico has this to say about a panel of 11 women in California:
BEVERLY HILLS, Calif. - The media called it a “victory lap” for John McCain, touting him as the winner of Wednesday night’s Republican debate.
But for 11 Republican-leaning women in a California conference room, the underdog - former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee - came out ahead.
Arizona Sen. McCain, they said, was snide, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was “phony.” Issues were secondary to personality. And hot-button topics like abortion, and even the war in Iraq, were decidedly less important to these women than bread-and-butter concerns like the economy and health care.
“Being a woman, [I think] Huckabee overall best understands what women Republicans or voters want, need and expect,” said Christine, a 32-year-old moderate Republican.
“He seemed more classy and more real,” agreed Pam, a 44-year-old undecided voter.
The women, all residents of Los Angeles County, came together in a nondescript Beverly Hills conference room to watch the debate, evaluate the candidates and talk some serious politics. They were participants in a focus group co-sponsored by Politico and Lifetime Networks, which are partnering to study how women view the presidential candidates.
Politico got to play policeman, watching from behind a thick pane of double-sided glass as the women observed the debate on CNN and discussed their reactions.
California, which has more than 15 million registered voters, is a make-or-break race for Republicans. The state awards 173 delegates, the largest number of any single state. The majority, 153 in total, are doled out by congressional district, turning the state into a hard-fought ground zero for every candidate hoping to pick up delegates.
The focus group here reflected California’s diversity, with participants ranging in age, income and ethnicity. At least three were immigrants, coming from Russia, Hungary and Thailand.
Despite their differences, most felt a Huckaboom at this debate.
Seven out of the 11 women declared Huckabee the winner, even though neither he nor Texas Rep. Ron Paul had anywhere near the airtime of McCain or Romney. After viewing the debate, four of the women - almost half the group - said they had changed their vote from McCain to Huckabee.
The former Arkansas governor won Iowa, but has yet to take another gold in the five subsequent races. The latest polling in California, taken before the debate, showed Huckabee with 11 percent - far behind Romney’s 28 percent and McCain’s 32 percent.
Still, Huckabee has consistently polled better with women than with men: 40 percent to 20 percent in Iowa, for example. His gender gap was smaller in other states but still notable: He won 33 percent of the female vote in South Carolina, compared with 28 percent of the male vote. And in Florida, he pulled 18 percent of women and just 11 percent of men.
McCain, considered the GOP front-runner after his big win in Florida, didn’t score any points with these undecided female voters - mostly because of his personal demeanor during the debate. They felt he was rude, undignified and as canned as a bad pickup line.
In general, the women respected his achievements but felt he was too snide on the debate stage at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in nearby Simi Valley.
Romney, while seen as professional, failed the personality test. “Arrogant,” “phony,” “Stepford wife-ish” and “a snake” were their choice words for the former Massachusetts governor. (Although they all agreed on his good looks.)
Part of his problem seemed to be his wealth. Romney, who made his fortune as chief executive of the private equity firm Bain Capital, is rumored to have contributed as much as $40 million to his own campaign.
“If he became president, I can almost agree that he won’t think of anyone else but himself and the wealthy,” said Eva, 39, a Hispanic who identified herself as a strong Republican.
Romney’s Mormon faith also made some of the women uncomfortable.
“It scares me how much he’s downplayed it,” said Katherine, 42, a small-business owner. “I know if he were to win, the second he’d get into office that would rear its head.”
Overall, issues took a back seat to personal qualities.
But when pressed, the women named immigration and health care as their top concerns.
Health care, they said, is a particularly resonant issue for women, because they have and take care of children.“We’re going to have kids, some of us do have kids, and we want to make sure they’re taken care of,” said Rita, a 25-year-old moderate Republican. “It’s the general maternal instinct.”
And, as with voters throughout the country, the women’s concerns about a struggling economy far outranked their feelings about the war in Iraq.
One traditionally female issue that didn’t make the list was abortion. The women all said that, while they had their own personal views on the issue, it wasn’t a litmus test. They believed the issue was unlikely to change dramatically either way - no matter who wins the election.
One point of contention was the candidates’ descriptions of retired Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor. When asked if Ronald Reagan was right to appoint O’Connor to the Supreme Court, the candidates generally dodged the question.
“This is a history-making woman, and they all said such terrible things,” said Katherine. “That made me feel like none of them were thinking, ‘Well, that’s going to offend some women out there.’”
And although they said they wouldn’t vote for Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, they respected her historical position.
“I don’t think I’ll vote for her, because I don’t agree with her policies,” said Joy. “But it is a monumental step that a woman as strong as she is has come as far as she has.”
The focus group was chosen and facilitated by Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway of The Polling Company. Democratic pollster Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners has put together a similar group of undecided women voters to hear the Democratic candidates’ debate in Los Angeles on Thursday night.
We will continue to see this kind of fallout from the debate last night. The new polls from Saturday will be very telling - it is obvious that the top 3 are not getting out of the race, which is a good thing. Huck still has a strong chance to pick up several hundred delegates in the southern states. These are states that would otherwise goto McCain if Huck were not in the race.
http://race42008.com/2008/01/31/huckabee-gets-love-from-the-ladies/trackback/
January 31st, 2008 at 1:14 pm
Yeah, guess that’s Huck’s demographic - the “soak the rich” crowd and religious bigots.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Pn, is that all you got out of this?
January 31st, 2008 at 1:20 pm
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video_log/2008/01/luntz_group_says_romney_wins.html
these groups say; clearly romney is the winner. but hey, power to those ladies.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:22 pm
John, thanks for the link - ill check it out
January 31st, 2008 at 1:23 pm
Imagine that class-warfare mongers and bigots don’t like Romney.
I am utterly amazed.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:24 pm
Brett,
Nancy isn’t supporting Huckabee. She’s apparently a McCainiac.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:26 pm
These women are morons and their quotes prove it:
“If he became president, I can almost agree that he won’t think of anyone else but himself and the wealthy,†said Eva, 39, a Hispanic who identified herself as a strong Republican.
Romney’s Mormon faith also made some of the women uncomfortable.
“It scares me how much he’s downplayed it,†said Katherine, 42, a small-business owner. “I know if he were to win, the second he’d get into office that would rear its head.â€
January 31st, 2008 at 1:26 pm
EXCLUSIVE: NANCY REAGAN FOR MCCAIN, TOP SOURCE TELLS DRUDGE: ‘SHE ADORES HIM, AND IS FULLY SUPPORTING HIM IN HER PRIVATE LIFE. SHE WILL NOT PUBLICLY ENDORSE’…
January 31st, 2008 at 1:27 pm
Why did the “5 Reasons McCain Will Get Slaughtered in the Generals” thread just get deleted???
January 31st, 2008 at 1:28 pm
It did??!!??
Why. I’ll ask Jason.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:31 pm
Thanks Tommy - i didnt know all that - i knew she wont endorse in the primaries, but didnt know about McCain.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Metro, I’m sure you can still find it at MyManMitt.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:34 pm
Brett, what do you mean “is that all you got out of it”? Those two quotes entirely discredit anything else these women have to say about the Republican contenders. It transforms your entire premise - “women like Huckabee.” Yeah, populist and bigoted women like Huckabee.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:34 pm
If this site is not going to permit the debate about McCain that needs to take place in the GOP, it’s time for us all to move to an uncensored site.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:34 pm
The McCain camp just released new campaign buttons: http://www.cafepress.com/nogop2008.122261733
January 31st, 2008 at 1:35 pm
Metro - the 5 reasons got pulled because it was factually innacurrate. There are way more than 5 reasons that McCain will go down as Walter Mondale of the GOP.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:36 pm
LOL Jeffrey
January 31st, 2008 at 1:36 pm
Just looked at MyManMitt, and sure enough, there it is. That whole site is dedicated to this theme, which I posted under the thread before it disappeared:
Apologies to Brett for the off topic…
January 31st, 2008 at 1:37 pm
Jeffrey, I’m not a McCain fan, but that’s a dumb link - it’s an anti-GOP outlet all around.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:37 pm
#18 - its ok - thanks
January 31st, 2008 at 1:37 pm
The link still works to the 5 reasons: http://race42008.com/2008/01/31/5-reasons-mccain-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-generals/
January 31st, 2008 at 1:39 pm
PnGrata - I know - it’s funny. I was hoping that they’d have some good digs on Huckabee and clemency, so I was quite disappointed in that regard. Good humored jabs all around.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:39 pm
I think my wife and I are going to buy matching buttons.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Brett buddy,
The only reason that Huck is staying in is so that he can play Kingmaker…he will not get enough delegates to get the nomination and is hoping to run as the VP. Mitt, is effectively out, probably just staying in to spite McCain and damage him, keeping him from the nomination as long as possible. McCain is going to be the nominee, and all Huck can do is contine to kiss butt and hope for a VP spot. Granted he did take a swipe at McCain during the debate with that Senator remark, but too little too late, to not be seen for what he is: McCain’s little whipping boy.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:40 pm
Metro,
Just as McCain capitulated on immigration, he has caved on his opposition to Bush’s tax cuts, and now supports making them permanent. I can’t imagine either Giuliani or Forbes aligning themselves with a candidate who, proceeding forward, would demonstrate a loathing of pro-growth economic conservatives. To give the finger to Wall Street, Norquist and supply-siders would be an act of political suicide on his part; no differently than if he were to continue singing the praises of McCain-Kennedy in the run-up to the general election.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:40 pm
Jeffrey, no, it doesn’t.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:41 pm
Aron, that’s what I was HOPING for, but he pissed all over capitalism TWICE in last night’s debate.
That’s in a GOP PRIMARY. Imagine what he’ll do in the fall. Then imagine what he’d do when he has the POWER of the PRESIDENCY with a media that adores him even more when he does it.
This man must be stopped at ALL ccsts.
Aron, you’ll agree with this sooner or later.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:43 pm
Hey I took down the post. Hope it didn’t offend anybody.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:44 pm
Jason, why did you take it down?
January 31st, 2008 at 1:45 pm
Metro - have you checked your email yet today? I sent you an email early this morning.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:48 pm
Hadn’t checked that one. Just replied.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:53 pm
Regardless of the outcome, I think its pretty fair to say that Huck has a pretty bright future ahead. He is an asset to the republican party.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:53 pm
I think the reason some ladies liked Huckabee is because he wasn’t in the middle of the battle. Women don’t like fighting. Romney and McCain are front runners, so it is natural that they are going at it. It would have been nice if they could have debated themselves, although I understand why Huckabee and Paul supporters wouldn’t want to be left out.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:54 pm
Thanks and thanks for the strongly worded response. I replied back to you with another question.
I wonder if anyone on here would actually believe that you (Anti-Romney man#1) and I (Rombot through and through) actually email and have civil conversations with one another.
January 31st, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Issues took a back seat to personality? What do people think this is, a beauty contest? This reminds me of the black women that couldn’t decide whether to vote for their gender or their race. COME ON PEOPLE! WAKE UP!
Health care is a top concern for these women, yet they didn’t like Romney despite the fact that he’s probably done more with health care than any other candidate? Mitt Romney actually came up with and implemented a plan in Massachusetts to get everyone in that state health insurance, and yet this doesn’t matter to these so-called GOP women? What do they want then?
Even more surprising to me was that voters who were most concerned about the economy in Florida chose McCain over Romney. This is stunning given that McCain has admitted multiple times he doesn’t know a lot about the economy but he “has Greenspan’s book”. And yet Romney understands the economy inside and out. What is going here?
January 31st, 2008 at 2:02 pm
RayinNH, didn’t arrive.
January 31st, 2008 at 2:02 pm
#35,
What was going on in Florida is simple- The Chris (sp?) and Martinez endorsement had people voting for him who voted just based on those endorsements. Many people are dumb voters. They often aren’t educated about the issues and aren’t informed. It is sad but true.
January 31st, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Gomer’s a Pimp?
January 31st, 2008 at 2:21 pm
I think people really misjudge Romney. In a debate or speech, he is so good and sounds so intelligent, as well as looking perfect that he doesn’t come off as genuine. I think though that if people meet him in person, they find that he is very warm and genuine. His problem is that he is too polished and prepared. It does him well in debates, but when people only see him in that setting, they misjudge him.
January 31st, 2008 at 2:55 pm
I certainly saw nothing wrong with your posting Jason. Did someone complain? It was very logical.
January 31st, 2008 at 2:57 pm
At first when I read the title I thought you meant that Huckabee had gone the way of Baker, Swaggart, Armstrong, and the rest of that army.
January 31st, 2008 at 3:16 pm
Mittmama,
The problem is that we live in a cynical society that’s been watered down by people who don’t care too much about trying to be better than themselves - to be exceptional. Their weaknesses are “okay” and people can live with it. It means they’re “human”. This is sad that there aren’t enough people trying to be better and do better. People mistakenly call this “holier than thou” and a bunch of other silly things.
Mitt shouldn’t be ridiculed for making the best of himself. Mitt to me is the epitome of conservative living. I actually admire someone that’s at his level and aspire to do the same. Not enough people nowadays do that. Even in our party. We’re more accepting now of things less than “good” and are heading toward “good enough”.
I’ve heard of stories about Romney while Governor being told that he would get this if he did this favor but he refused time and again. The problem with Washington, particularly people like McGrumpy is that they give out favors like lollipops. I can guarantee you all Romney is asking for from these so called conservatives is their support and nothing more and of course there’s nothing in it for them. These people moving to McGrumpy now are people who are Republican first Conservative second. This is sad and only shows the delicate balance and what could potentially be the end of the Conservative Movement. I don’t know but I’ll fight with Romney until he either wins or bows out. Screw Gomer and Paul at this point. They should bow out and the let the battle between left leaning Republicans and Conservative Republicans fight to the finish.
January 31st, 2008 at 3:52 pm
Nancy Reagan DOES NOT support McCain, name dropper!
January 31st, 2008 at 5:06 pm
43, i was given info that she does - so i modded my post to reflect that.
January 31st, 2008 at 5:25 pm
[...] Brett also posted some interesting analysis of reaction to last night’s debate. It clearly demonstrates the problem that Romney faces. People just don’t trust the guy. [...]
January 31st, 2008 at 5:48 pm
[...] What is it about Mike Huckabee that makes the ladies swoon — at least electorally? Seven out of the 11 women declared Huckabee the winner, even though neither he nor Texas Rep. Ron Paul had anywhere near the airtime of McCain or Romney. After viewing the debate, four of the women — almost half the group — said they had changed their vote from McCain to Huckabee. Share and Enjoy: These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages. [...]
January 31st, 2008 at 9:10 pm
I really don’t get how people can call Mitt a “phony”. What does it take for some people to be truly convinced he is on our side? I mean the guy won CPAC last year, the Ames Straw poll is dominating the conservative Republican vote. Like that Vanderbilt study showed many people are using cover up tactics to hide their prejudice against a Mormon candidate.
February 1st, 2008 at 5:56 am
Sean,
You “really don’t get” how people can call Mitt a phony?!?!?!
Everything he does reeks of posturing and self-promotion. The positions he’s taken on moral issues have happened at politically necessary times. He arrogantly boasted that “absolutely” Ronald Reagan would endorse me. What in the world? This guy is so arrogant and plastic and phony it makes my skin crawl. THAT’S why these women see him the way they do… because that’s the way he comes off.
It actually is shocking to me that some people CAN’T see why/how he comes across as a phony. Hillary Clinton comes off as more real and unposed than Romney, and THAT’S saying something. Why can’t you guys see it? Is it just because you want so desperately to believe that there is indeed a perfect Republican candidate this go-round? Because there isn’t.
McCain? He’s seen as a lib by the establishment, is an awkward debater, and is perceived to have a temper problem.
Romney? He’s (like it or not) seen as a flip-flopper who will do or say whatever is necessary to get elected, plus he comes across as a phony. All of that scares the crud out of the average (read: non-establishment/non-elite) Republican voter.
Huckabee? He’s (whether I like it or not) seen as more liberal than what the establishment would like, and there are some unfortunately intricate stories that cause concern (Wayne Dumond, concerns about the ethics committee in AR, etc.). Plus, there are a LOT of people that don’t like the fact that he was a pastor 20 years ago. Heck, I don’t like what Mitt Romney was/said just two or THREE years ago, but these same people will harangue Huckabee for being a pastor two decades ago. Whatever.
Anyway, all that to say, there’s no “PERFECT” Republican candidate. Your guy, Sean, is awkward. He comes off like a geeky know-it-all at best, and like a slick-willy plasticized fully-postured Stepford candidate at worst. Either way, I can’t believe you can’t even admit to some personal awkwardness and a perceived insincerity that permeates from your candidate.
I guess love truly is blind.