The Candidates
Rasmussen New York GOP Primary, conducted January 31st-February 1st, 2008.
- John McCain 49%
- Mitt Romney 30%
- Mike Huckabee 8%
This telephone survey of 524 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on January 31-February 1, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
I’m still waiting to see current poll numbers for Alaska, Montana, Colorado, Utah, Delaware, North Dakota and West Virgina.
February 2nd, 2008 at 4:50 pm
What are the chances Romney could get 100 delegates out of CA?
February 2nd, 2008 at 4:52 pm
All praise the great John McCain
February 2nd, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Romney will win CA due to Mormon support.
You heard it here first!
February 2nd, 2008 at 4:54 pm
Romney is way ahead in CO I think.
February 2nd, 2008 at 4:56 pm
ACT,
I think that that’s a highly unlikely scenario. I think the best case outcome for Romney at this rate is take between 60-75 delegates. McCain will likely get 85-100. I have a hard time seeing Huckabee picking up any delegates. The race is still surprising close. Although, we have yet to see a CA poll taken after Rudy and Arnold’s endorsements.
Ajay,
I don’t doubt that, but I can’t remember seeing a poll of that state for several weeks.
February 2nd, 2008 at 4:57 pm
Romney up by +19 in poll last week in Colorado.
http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_8089114
February 2nd, 2008 at 4:57 pm
LJ. . . If I hear about any AK polls I’ll let you know. I’m told there won’t be any major statewide polling, though, so don’t count on any.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:00 pm
Rasmussen sucks. They totally over poll McCain.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:02 pm
You would think that Liberal John McCain, having been endorsed by America’s Mayor, would be farther ahead in super-liberal New York, wouldn’t you? There are apparently a lot of New Yorkers who didn’t get the memo about how they’re supposed to fall in line behind McCain.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:02 pm
I’m gonna way way way way way out on a limb right here and call the following states for Romney on Super Duper Pooper Scooper Tuesday:
MA
DE
GA
TN
AK
UT
CA
MO
TN
CO
ID
IL
NM
ND
MT
WV
And then the story changes again as the race tightens and conventional wisdom is thrown out the window.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:04 pm
TLG,
HOW is Mormon support going to propel Romney to victory in CA? They are only 2 percent of the population.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:04 pm
RayinNH, Romney winning Delaware, New Mexico, Illinois..? Sorry…just…no. I take issue with others in there, too, but those three? Sorry, I think they’re solidly for McCain…
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:05 pm
Ray: discount CA, DE, IL and some of the Southern states. McCain is ahead in GA, and AL right now and I think McCain will put away DE with ease
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:05 pm
Jason,
Actually McCain is at 55 in the SUSA poll of New York.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:05 pm
ACT,
If my pet theory that McCain’s support in California is so concentrated in the Bay area is correct, the chances of Mitt getting 100 delegates out of California are excellent.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:06 pm
Aaron,
Thanks. Somehow I completely overlooked that poll. I see that it was taken pre-FL, so it’ll be interesting to see if the numbers have moved at all. That seems doubtful since Rudy barely registered on the poll to begin with.
alaska,
Do you have any idea why that is? How hard is it to poll the state?
Ray,
Thanks for the laugh. I needed it.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:06 pm
11 — Adam, that 2% figure is only meaningful if 100% of the population votes in the Republican primary.
Mormons made up 25% of Nevada GOP primary voters and they all went for Romney. That’s a figure that matters. They only make up 7% of Nevada’s population, but that figure is only meaningful if 100% of the population voted in the GOP primary there.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:07 pm
I never mentioned AL.
I am sticking to my guns. Once again, I may be wrong but I don’t care. I stick by my choices and I’m not going to try to dissect each and every state and say why I feel this way, I just do.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:07 pm
Wait, 2%? Are you sure it’s not more? I could have sworn it was more in CA.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:07 pm
Still, your argument was fallacious.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:09 pm
Right so if 7 percent gets you 25 it would stand to reason that 2 percent would get you 7 1/7 percent using the same proportion. It’s not going to be enough.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:09 pm
Nope, it’s 2%. I thought it was more.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:10 pm
Still, I would add 5% to every California poll you see. RCP average has McCain up by 8.3%. If we add 5%, then Romney’s only down by 3-4% in California, which is a gap that can be closed, especially as McCain gets slammed by conservatives.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:11 pm
I don’t think Romney will win the most delegates even with 7 points extra (which is probably generous). Romney isn’t going to win in the blue hispanic-heavy districts. Look at FL where McCain beat Romney among Hispanics 51-15. Since there are more blue districts than red ones in blue CA then I think McCain has the advantage.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:11 pm
TLG,
God point, they could make up with that reasoning an extra 15% of the electorate in CA.
I would say Romney has a chance in IL, two polls put him wthin 10% of McCain, and most indies and a good chunk of moderate “R’s” will be voting for obama in such a hot race for the Dems. IL is his home state. I could be wrong, but no way can McCain expect huge amounts of moderates and indies to carry the day for him here.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Ray in NH,
Your list is an excellent list of the states that Mitt CAN win on Tuesday, but for all of those states come through for him, he needs to gain 4 or 5 points by Tuesday in the Rasmussen National Poll. I think he will gain some, but there will probably be a couple of states on your list that we lose. My guess is that we’ll come up a little short in Georgia and Illinois. I hope I’m wrong about that.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:12 pm
Oh, never mind. The RCP average still includes Giuliani people, which will go to McCain.
Never mind. California’s in the bag for McCain. I was wrong.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:13 pm
On #17. That was a caucus, this is a primary. I don’t think the Morman factor will be that significant. Plus, it’ll be offset by the hispanic factor. With the Governor’s help, I imagined turnout in CA will be high enough for McCain to win the popular vote (not sure about delegates though).
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:14 pm
I have little doubt that “Mormons” would rather vote for a fellow “Mormon” than vote for candidates that put out negative rhetoric about their religion, but there hasn’t been a state yet where the “Mormon vote” has tipped the scale.
Fred had a well know anti-Mormon on his campaign. Huckabee has at least 1 anti-Mormon on his campaign probably more plus his website is filled with anti-Mormon comments. McCain’s mom was on TV criticizing “Mormonsâ€. Romney’s got the “Mormon†vote locked up within the republican primary, not from his efforts (though saving the Olympics helped) but because of the other campaigns efforts.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:14 pm
McCain thinks this thing will be over next week but it won’t. He is beginning to crack up. During the last debate people caught a first glimpse of the dark side of his personality. That will only get worse as time goes on. Here is another sample:
“Campaign Carl Cameron on Fox News just reported that McCain has sent a message to Mitt Romney…and that is to “Get out or be pushed out”. McCain has highlighted that push button, bot polling, phone campaigns etc..will be rolling out over the next 48 hours in every state that is up on Tuesday and his goal is to embarrass Romney in Mass. with a loss there..focusing heavily in his home state.”
McCain is mentally unstable and will probably self destruct like he did many times in the past when things were looking bright for him.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:17 pm
If the graph at Pollster.com holds for Tuesday, Romboosters will be in for a shock.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:18 pm
TLG,
There are 750,000 Mormons in California, and could easily account for a net advantage to Romney of 300,000 plus votes. However, the Mormon percentage of the population in the state is only 2.1%. In Nevada, it was more than 3 1/2 times as high. The biggest advantage to Romney in the state is the fact that there are roughly 4 million conservative Republicans in the state that are fed up with getting screwed by liberal Republicans. So your assumption that Mitt will win the state is rational, and I expect the same….but this one I would NOT call a lock.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:18 pm
It would be AWESOME if Mitt lost in Mass. And it would totally be justified the way he used the state and its voters as a springboard for a presidential run.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:21 pm
I think Romney may lose up to 15 to 20 delegates in Mass (out of a possible 40) IMO
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:22 pm
Romney will win in Mass. McCain is wasting his time there.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:22 pm
16. . . Alaska is tough to poll because there are only three major cities - Anchorage, Fairbanks and Juneau. Half the state’s population lives in Anchorage. The rest of the population is so spread out, many in tiny villages seperated by even hundreds of miles, and voting consistency is very, well, inconsistent outside of the cities. National polling firms ignore the state and we only have one major newspaper, so polling history, especially for president, is almost non-existant. Since we never mattered for a presidential election before (first year we’re voting on 2/5) there was never a need to poll voters here.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:22 pm
McCain is a disgrace to the race.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:23 pm
#34 True, but Pollster’s data has been flooded lately by stupid polls. If it was one of the creditable polling companies then I would be worried, but it’s not.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Kudos though Alaska Jake to whomever moved up your state primary. It is nice that the rest of the country actually gets a say in who our nominee might be, not just IA and NH
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:27 pm
39. . . Yeah Alaskans are pretty happy with taking part this year, and I imagine we’ll have much higher voter participation this year. Having lived in PA most of my life, I’ve never had the chance to vote in a meaningful primary, so this is my first early vote as well.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:35 pm
From my understanding, in AK the Republicans are holding a presidential preference poll (as opposed to a primary or caucus). It’s combined with the party convention so that we vote anytime from 430 pm to 830 pm, and while there we can sign up to be a party delegate to the state convention. The presidential delegates chosen to be sent to the national convention are committed to their candidates I believe only for the first two ballots, after which they are released to vote for whomever they choose.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:37 pm
Although I think that those who note the presence of a significant Mormon population in CA are providing a useful insight, it would be more important if it were winner-take-all and the state were close. Even if they were all concentrated in a couple of House districts, they remain only about 2% of the population, and even though they are disproportionately Republican, it can only be a handful of delegates one way or another.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:39 pm
Romney will carry at least Mass, Colorado, Montana, Utah and North Dakota. That will keep him in the race and the McCain crowning ceremony expected for Tuesday will have to be put off.
No candidate has stayed in the lead for more than a month. McCain’s time is running out. If he doesn’t cement a sizable lead quickly he will begin to slip. He should be way ahead of Romney on Rasmussen but he is not. I foresee problems for him in the future.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:40 pm
Just saw RayinNH’s list-
He’s entitled to his opinion. I would disagree as to how most of those states will go, but this is polling after all, and speculation is part of the fun. Obviously, if Ray turns out to be right, the race would be completely transformed. However, I don’t think that the polling data throughout the various states on the list yields a lot of support for his calls.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:42 pm
Per #43 - I’ll throw in Alaska for good measure. The problem, though, is that even if we stipulate for the purpose of this post, that Argamenon is correct in that Mitt takes all of those states Tuesday, only Massachusetts and Colorado have significant delegate yields of that group.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:44 pm
One potential positive for Romney is it’s possible McCain has been able to turnout more moderate Republicans due to intenstive focus on each state he’s won. Obviously he lived in NH for a while, spent a good deal of time in SC, and I think spent almost 10 straight days in FL. Now however, he’ll only be spending a few days (if any) in each state. Also, if people think this is wrapped up it could potentially hurt McCain as moderate Republicans are less likely to vote then their conservative counterparts.
On the other hand, Mccain is getting a lot of endorsements and presumably these endoresees will help him turnout the moderate Republicans he needs to counter Romney’s edge amongst the very conservative voters.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:50 pm
45. . . Some of those states (AK is one) are proportional, so even if Romney wins here AK McCain can still get delegates.
February 2nd, 2008 at 6:01 pm
#45
Right. But after Tuesday there will still be thousands of delegates to be picked up. I’m looking forward to the debates between only Romney and McCain on the issues of immigration, taxes, etc..
McCain’s recent debate performances do not bode well for him. He is getting cocky, aloof and overly sarcastic. He is expecting to be crowned on Tuesday. He will begin to get impatient if that doesn’t happen. Back in 2000 McCain was trounced by Bush on those one on one debates and Bush is a very bad debater. This thing is far from over.
February 2nd, 2008 at 6:39 pm
As I said - my list is far from scientific and certainly does not mesh with what we are seeing in polls but I am sticking to my guns. Maybe I had a dream or vision or something but this is just what I’m thinking.
If this were to happen then 2/6 will be quite the day in American politics.