GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
I am not sure of delegate counts, so I’m going to take the easy route and take a stab at who wins tomorrow. It’s the first time I’ve gone forward with predictions on the front page, so here goes:
I think McCain will pretty much sweep the southern states, and carry a majority of California delegates, pushing all speculation of possible upsets out of the equation. I thought Huckabee would be stronger in southern states, but his buzz has really died. He was here in town early this morning. I wasn’t able to make it, but it recieved little coverage.
Just my predictions…
February 4th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
Come on tommy…the people in Illinois are smarter than that! I think Romney has a better shot at Georgia than Ill.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
I live in Illinois, and Romney has no chance. There is a big Ron Paul following in central and southern Illinois. McCain will win the state by at least 10%.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
Two new national polls . . . both with McCain up 15% (not 28% like Fox keeps claiming every 5 minutes according to their outlier poll of registered voters)
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/04/national.poll/index.html
February 4th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2008_poll_tpline_feb2.pdf
February 4th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
I think Romney has a better shot at California than Illinois. This would make a rough night for Romney if these are the results.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
I largely agree with these predicitons, though if I had to pick a spot for a Romney “upset” (Is it an upset when you are only four points behind on 1/25 and then you pour $2M into the state?) it would be CA and not IL.
But I feel good about McCain’s chances when a Tommy Oliver backs up my sense about the way the southern states break.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Does anyone have a primary / caucus schedule for the states after Feb 5th?
February 4th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
How does one get off of John McCain’s robo-call list?
February 4th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
Cwpete,
Here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/republican_delegate_count.html#upcomingstates
February 4th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
I think Romney will make an upset in CA and GA.
Az will be much closer, despite being winner-take-all, but it shuld cause others to question again whether McCain should take the mantle of the GOP.
I just got done watching Troy (good movie, despite not following the Illiad completely), but I was thiking that the GOP is Troy and McCain is the Trojan Horse left by the media to be the symbol of the city!
February 4th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
Brett,
I didn’t check the latest polls, so I was going by guesstimation on where he would pull off. I don’t see Romney winning in GA or TN, so I picked one I had little knowledge of.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
Ilfigo (#10), Amen.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
Southerners are not going to vote for a Governor from the North. No way! I have friends in Georgia and they think Romney is a poser.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
Thanks Adam #9..
February 4th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
Tommy,
For a REAL upset, how about Huckabee taking Utah?
Hey, the Giants won last night, right?
On that note, is the Super Bowl a good omen or bad omen for Romney?
1. Good omen because it proves this is a week for upsets.
2. Bad omen because it proves this is a bad week to be from New England.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
ilfigo,
“Az will be much closer, despite being winner-take-all, but it shuld cause others to question again whether McCain should take the mantle of the GOP.”
Yes - EXCEPT if exit polling shows that Mormons came out in droves for Mitt in percantages that far outpace their percentage of the population as a whole. If that is the case then it can be explained away.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
ilfigo,
“I just got done watching Troy (good movie, despite not following the Illiad completely), but I was thiking that the GOP is Troy and McCain is the Trojan Horse left by the media to be the symbol of the city!”
Does that make Ann Coulter Helen?
February 4th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
Adam that may be true, but the Mormon population in AZ is quite large. Portions of it is called Little Salt Lake.
If the Mormons do come out for Romney, it could be an upset. Bad weather here, more important Dem race (some indy and liberal GOP may have jumped parties) and conservatives do not like McCain here.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
Clarence Claus’s predictions a few posts bellow are more accurate.
“I didn’t check the latest polls… I don’t see Romney winning in GA or TN”
Here are the latest polls:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/most_recent_rasmussen_reports_primary_polling
GA and TN are leaning Romney. He has been rising sharply since last week with Huck’s implosion. California is solidly on Romney’s grasp. Missouri is a toss up.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
Tommy - you are more courageous than me, putting predictions on the front page. My two cents-
#5 Clarence-
I agree that if Tommy’s choices are accurate, that it would be a very good night for McCain.
Are we counting winning a plurality of delegates or a plurality of the popular vote statewide as victory? To me, tracking delegates would be a lot more complicated. Per CA - both Romney and McCain will win a lot of delegates, with McCain in particular doing well in the blue districts and along the coast.
#6 adam-
I agree, Tommy knows the South very well. If he thinks Romney ends up with nothing there (he has all Southern states going for McCain or Huck), it makes me feel better as well.
It was good for Tommy to defy the CW with one of his calls - Illinois. Obviously, I hope that his guess is not correct. Some thoughts on Illinois
As w/ CA, IL awards most of its dels on basis of who wins the CD. Given McCain’s lead, it would be a lot better for him if it were winner-take-all. McCain also enjoys the advantage of it being open not only to indies but Dems, but I think many Dems and indies will be voting on the Democratic side, they will want to vote for their favorite son…
FWIW - Pollster on Illinois:
http://www.pollster.com/08-IL-Rep-Pres-Primary.php
February 4th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
This reminds me of the black women who couldn’t decide whether to vote their race or their gender. WAKE UP PEOPLE! We are a diverse nation–I wish people would stop picking candidates based on personality and demographics. I feel like beating my head against the wall!
“The safety of this Republic lies in the education of it’s people” — Andrew Carnegie
February 4th, 2008 at 3:53 pm
MWS…not sure.
But there are rumors among some McCain peoplpe in AZ that the Senator may change his party ID after his swearing in if he is the nominee and wins. Such a move would make the potential switch or Kerry VP stories seems like nothing.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:53 pm
Survey USA for California
McCain 39
Romney 36
Huckabee 9
I don’t know where to find the link but David Leip has it included in his polling average and it wasn’t there a few hours ago. I check this site feverishly because he sometimes has polls up before RCP - and he’s pretty reliable. This is actually better news for Romney than the numbers would suggest because the last poll showed McCain up by 12.
http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008R/polls.php?fips=6
February 4th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
Romney can get away with losing all Southern states as long as he takes the border state of Missouri. I think Alabama and Oklahoma are a lost cause as well as Arkansas. Georgia and Tennessee are competitive.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
New Insider Advantage for Georgia
McCain 32
Romney 31
Huck 26
Paul 3
This one is better news for McCain because Insider Advantage had Romney +1 in their last poll.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ga/georgia_republican_primary-267.html
February 4th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
Adam, nice try. Your link shows Romney leading. Stop cooking the polls
February 4th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
#16 Adam
That won’t happen because Mormons are a secret cult and it will not be revealed to the exit pollsters that they are actually Mormon.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
Hobie…we don’t need ths thread to be tainted by Mormon bigotry.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
#13 Cole
I have friends in AL that think McCain is a vendictave SOB. We should all get together and go bowling.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Romney surges against McCain in Georgia - 7% still undecided
McCain 32 (30)
Romney 31 (30)
Huckabee 26 (28)
The poll sampled 465 likely voters in the Feb. 5 Georgia Republican primary, for a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5%. The poll was conducted Feb.3. The data have been weighted for age, race, gender and political affiliation.
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_24_197.aspx
February 4th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Arg,
No it doesn’t. Click it again and then press F5 to refresh the screen.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
#28 ilfigo - “sarcasm” to make a point about the usual Mormon card being played here.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Its also important to note that Missouri has been trending well towards McCain. And all you Romney supporter’s need to realize that Missouri is an open primary and election officials are estimating that McCain will get alot of Indy’s and Dem’s support, along with doing well among Republicans. So i think McCain wins Missouri by at least 10% b/c of this fact.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
If the exit pollsters include Mormon as an option, as they did with NV, it will absolutely erase the possibility Mitt will run in 2012.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:07 pm
Unable to tell with the new poll posted by Jeffrey as to whether the drop in Huck support is going to Romney (ala Talk Radio) or whether the voters decide to leave Huck for his pimp.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
Metro…explain.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
Billy is the DEM race not being held the same day in Missouri?
February 4th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
ilfigo, because it will document that Mormons are turning out like a cult and bloc-voting for Mitt.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
So do you think Obama should run in 2012 if a GOPer wins simply because the block of black voters?
February 4th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
Romney isn’t going to win TN. There is very little buzz around here. Everything is McCain, and I’m in the conservative area. TN is very split. The western part is more democrat, but East Tennessee is one of the most conservative areas in the country. I live on the east border of the state, and Romney’s buzz seems to be coming out of the central area. Not much out of Chattanooga or Knoxville, or the north Georgia areas, where the GOP is dominant. So that is why I don’t think he’ll win here. If the polls are sampling randomly across the state, then they won’t gauge Republican turnout correctly.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
Yes i believe it is but this is what i’m hearing among election officials in my state here in Missouri, and just looking at the polls from our state it’s clearly trending towards McCain in a big way, i think the last poll had McCain up by about 10 points here, and he’s doing fairly well among Republicans, so i think it comes down to how many Indy’s and Dem’s vote in the Republican Primary to depend on whether McCain wins by 3 or 4, or whether he wins by 8 or 9.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
Jeffrey,
The Southern Political report, ie Insider Advantage, polls aren’t very accurate
February 4th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
Tommy,
And doesnt the fact that Tenn. is an Open Primary help McCain even more in your state?
February 4th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
Tommy,
By the way, any news on Fred Thompson lately or how his Mother is doing? Thanks.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
#41 Billy
How has Blunt and Talent played in all this, just curious?
February 4th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
Well,
It’s not officially an open primary. You have to declare your party when you vote, which registers you with the party. But, I can see that it might help him.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:22 pm
Well they’ve had some impact, mainly among Very Conservative Voters in my state, but Huckabee is hurting Romney big time here in Missouri, the Western Part of the State is very conservative, and they are spilt btwn Romney and Huck, and the Central and Eastern part, mainly the large St.Louis Area, is heavily McCain and it depends on which side of the state turns out to vote, but like i said if Romney and Huck split the vote in the West, it may not matter and McCain will win.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
Thompson is currently taking care of his mother in his hometown. staying out of the limelight, for the time being and letting the process work itself out.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
Tommy,
Thanks for the update, so how do you feel about the race? Are you with Ann Coulter saying that she would vote for Hillary Clinton over John McCain? How many points to you think that McCain will win in your state?
February 4th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
I have been calling for Romney since last Friday, and sadly for me(former Fredhead), a lot of people seem to indicate they wished Fred had stayed in the race…I am praying for a Dewey Photo Op after tomorrow.
I just really hate the way McCain has treated us on Immigration and McCain-Feingold. He should be in retirement for those bills, not running for President.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
if these predictions are correct, stick a fork in Romney.
I don’t largely disagree with any of them actually barring some type of suprise. Huckabee’s posture is curious to me though. why is he still in? it is hard to know. i hope its not because he thinks he has some shot at a vp nod. that will never happen at this point. never.
then why else is he staying in? is it out of pure spite to romney?
I don’t know why, it is just wierd to me.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
#47 Billy
I thought Hucks supporters were really not Mitt voters or does it depend state to state?
February 4th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
Billy,
I’m not making any sort of Ann Coulter statements. I think McCain has the race in the bag, personally. I think he wins by 5 points. Another factor that might actually help him is that Fred Thompson is still on the ballot here.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
Thunderpig,
I know the feeling.
February 4th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
I bought three of Coulter’s books. I am thinking of taking them to work and leaving them in the lunchroom for someone else. I feel dirty having shelled out cash for anything that vile woman wrote. Her legs are her only redeeming quality and she is far more attractive on TV with the mute button on.
February 4th, 2008 at 6:15 pm
It doesn’t help that the news station has had Huckabee on 45,000 times crying about how Mitt is asking him to leave. People don’t realize Mitt isn’t saying that at all, and the media knows it, but Huckabee plays this over and over during every stump speech then Fox and the others air it umpteen dozen times each.
February 4th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
Tommy: Considering how even handed your predictions are everywhere else, I gotta ask: Why in the world do you think Romney will win Illinios?
February 4th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
How does McCain get by with being called pro-life when we have video of him saying he would not favor the overturn of Roe vs Wade?
February 5th, 2008 at 1:55 am
“Illinois - Romney (had to pick an upset)�
Thank you Tommy!
“Come on tommy…the people in Illinois are smarter than that!�
I believe we are too-Romney for President!
“because it will document that Mormons are turning out like a cult and bloc-voting for Mitt.�
Whaaaaa? “Mormons� are supposed to vote for a guy whose mother made an offensive comment on national TV? A guy whose campaign used anti-Mormon rhetoric to try and take down Mitt? Please.
Are all the politicians in Utah even “Mormon�?