GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Here are the states that will be voting tomorrow:
Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia
Here’s how I see them shaping up:
Alabama - Safe McCain
Alaska - Leans Romney
Arizona - Safe McCain
Arkansas - Safe Huckabee
California - Tossup
Colorado - Safe Romney
Connecticut - Safe McCain
Delaware - Leans McCain
Georgia - Tossup
Illinois - Leans McCain
Massachusetts - Safe Romney
Minnesota - Leans McCain
Missouri - Leans McCain
Montana - Safe Romney
New Jersey - Safe McCain
New York - Safe McCain
North Dakota - Leans Romney
Oklahoma - Tossup
Tennessee - Tossup
Utah - Safe Romney
West Virginia - Leans Romney
Or, put differently:
McCain - 9 states (AL, AZ, CT, DE, IL, MN, MO, NJ, NY)
Romney - 7 states (AK, CO, MA, MT, ND, UT, WV)
Huckabee - 1 state (AR)
Tossup - 4 states (CA, GA, OK, TN)
I’m sure you have your own opinions, so what say you?
February 4th, 2008 at 10:29 am
McCain - 7 states (AL, CT, DE, IL, MN, NJ, NY)
Romney - 11 states (AK, CA, CO, GA, MA, MO, MT, ND, TN, UT, WV)
Huckabee - 1 state (AR)
Tossup - 2 states (OK, AZ)
That’s what I call Bold.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:29 am
That’s perfect. Really. I can’t think of a single one I disagree with. But, if were using even more gradations, I’d say Missouri is the smallest “leans McCain”. I’m still not convinced that Talent and Blunt won’t be able to make the difference.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:30 am
we’re*
February 4th, 2008 at 10:34 am
Re: Illinois. Didn’t Romney win the Illinois sraw poll? Typical, I live in this pathetic state. What a bunch of mindnumb RINO robots. Sigh??? Go Mitt! I’ll be voting for you tomorrow.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:35 am
I agree, I know a few people in MO and they are for Mit, but thats only about 12 people.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:37 am
Wearing one of my Mitt shirts today!
Wearing my other one tomorrow!
go go Mitt.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Don’t forget the magic underwear! What a much a lady men to wet themselves over such a complete fraud and phony. Can you cay cult mentality?
February 4th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Paul - 22 states (Prepare for the rEVOLution)
In all seriousness, though, I think Matt C’s predictions are quite accurate.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:46 am
#8 I agree, although the time zones help McCain. If McCain nearly sweeps the East few people will stay up to see California’s results snail in.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:48 am
If Huckabee gets out after Super Tuesday, it will be very interesting to see where his votes go.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:49 am
Comments like #7 make me weep for the future of the conservative movement and the future of America.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:50 am
#7 Tim
I agree. How can any of us vote for these crazy belief guys. McCain believes that Moses split the red sea or that a mysterious entity is 3 people but really only 1 and is everywhere but nowhere. This guy is crazy and belongs to a cult.
What are we thinking. Let’s get a real atheist for crying out loud. Tim
February 4th, 2008 at 10:50 am
How does this pan out in terms of delegate math? It seems like 9 states McC, 7 Romney really translates into a big win for McCain since NY and NY are winner-take-all.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:52 am
I just realized that Romney has a huge lead when it comes to land mass (square footage)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Republican_Primary_Results.png
February 4th, 2008 at 10:52 am
It looks like OK is pretty safe for McCain, he has hit 40% in the polling there. We may not know the CA to the next day if the SOS is right about 20% of the vote will not be counted untill the next day (and that would be mail in ballots, what they do is the start counting the mail in ballots the week before but they take along time because they have to Match the Sig of the person on the ballot with the on the master list so it takes time, then on election day at 8pm they stop counting those ballots and count Precident ballots, then when done go back to Mail in.) So if McCain is up on the mail in’s which polls seem to show but Romney up on the day vote it my take away. Also here in CD 22 we might have weather trouble in terms of reporting the vote. they have to drive the votes in from the outline areas and towns into Bakersfield to be counted and there is snow right now in the mountians so the mountian areas and the dessert areas my not be counted on the 5th neither.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:53 am
SDM,
I’d guess with Matt C’s breakdowns, and the likely margins, we’d see something like a 600-375 split. That’s a McCain win for sure, but it’s probably a momentum killer and gives a decent shot of sending it to the convention.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:53 am
I guess that changes, whoever takes Alaska.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:54 am
11 Chris
Psst. (whispering) Ignore the crazy person. He may forget we’re here and go away.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:56 am
Why is OK so strong for McCain? I thought they would be more sympathetic to Huckabee and Romney in that order?
February 4th, 2008 at 10:56 am
If Romney wins California and Georgia tomorrow, I suspect that we’ve seen serious pro-Romney movement; at that point I’d give Mitt….oh a 25% chance of winning the nomination. Which is quite a bit better then where we are now. If Tennessee and Missouri also break Romney, we may be looking at an abject repudiation of McCain in post-Super Tuesday states.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:56 am
Re: Illinois. Didn’t Romney win the Illinois sraw poll?
Didn’t Romney win the Ames Straw Poll? Goes to show you that straw polls dont mean squat. Its just the hardcore right-wingers showing up to try and make a statement. Once the average joe Republicans actually vote in a primary the better candidates win, like Huck in Iowa and Mac in Illinois!
February 4th, 2008 at 10:58 am
Tim
Can you say pull your pathetic head out of your Jackass?
February 4th, 2008 at 11:00 am
I will be posting my GOP predictions later and have already written them. Most are similar to this. I think Missouri will be critical, perhaps more than California. Whoever wins California, it will be close, so the delegate count won’t be affected much by the winner, but Missouri is winner take all and has I believe 58 delegates. If Mitt doesn’t take it, he better hope Huckabee does.
February 4th, 2008 at 11:00 am
What are you guys referring to as a win in CA anyway? Just delegate count? just # of votes? I dont see Romney beating mccain with popular vote but he could barely win the delegate count. No chance he pulls Missouri, GA and Tenn…maybe one of them.
Your predictions look pretty accurate Matt
February 4th, 2008 at 11:02 am
Brett
We will see soon enough
February 4th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Well, it’s suppose to be snowing here in Oklahoma tomorrow. That might keep some McCain voters home. Especially the older ones.
19#, I’m not sure why McCain is doing so well here except that folks in my state seem to like mavericks.
February 4th, 2008 at 11:04 am
Brett S,
See about 4 posts down. Zogby’s tracking poll has Romney up 8 in California. And before you say “well Zogby’s not accurate” look at their poll of NJ, in comparison to NJ. If anything, they seem to under-poll Romney in other states.
February 4th, 2008 at 11:05 am
How about the Coburn endorsment, that has to help McCain in the land of Will Rogers
February 4th, 2008 at 11:07 am
Yeah, Coburn is a pretty big deal. I’d think he’d be in consideration for VP if he weren’t a senator. No one would reassure the base better.
February 4th, 2008 at 11:09 am
Yeah, Coburn is pretty popular here, so it probably helped McCain.
February 4th, 2008 at 11:09 am
Actually Mark Sanford had a great stunt the other day in SC. To protest the big-spending of the legislature, he brought in two pigletts named “Pork” and “Barrel” that has to please any conservative
February 4th, 2008 at 11:10 am
People are relying on an ARG poll to put Delaware on the McCain column. ARG also predicted a landslide victory for McCain in Maine…
McCain will only win 2 winner takes all states according to these predictions. But NY and NJ will give him only 152 delegates.
February 4th, 2008 at 11:12 am
I just got an email that Mitt Romney will be in Oklahoma City today.
February 4th, 2008 at 11:13 am
“Comments like #7 make me weep for the future of the conservative movement and the future of America.”
Yeah, although I’m not sure whether to weep because of the bigotry or the grammar/spelling. I have no idea what that one sentence in #7 means!
February 4th, 2008 at 11:13 am
Big problem with your candidate/state matches: not all the states are winner-take all, and when that is factored in, McCain is still likely to come out way ahead. He’s winning in bigger states with more delegates. This Romney hope, based on a couple of polls, is a bit over-exaggerated.
February 4th, 2008 at 11:22 am
Matt C,
This is a good analysis. The only things I would quibble with would be Oklahoma where I would give McCain a lean based on the Jan. 27 Survey USA poll that showed him with a 9 point lead amd the Jan 31 Sooner Poll which gives him a 21-point lead.
Also I think you’re a little too optimistic on Tennessee.
Otherwise it looks good.
February 4th, 2008 at 11:32 am
Romney wins California, Missouri & Tennessee.
February 4th, 2008 at 11:35 am
michael,
Thanks for that expert and substantive analysis.
February 4th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Mitt is not going to win Missouri. I am as big a Romney supporter as anyone, but I just don’t see Missouri happening. I hope I am wrong though.
February 4th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Alabama - Safe McCain????
You can argue that it leans McCain, but Huckabee has a very real chance of winning Alabama.
February 4th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
Note to #7 Tim, get a life…
February 4th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
I disagree with current polls and predict this —
McCain - 11 states (AL, AZ, CA, CT, DE, IL, MN, MO, NJ, NY, OK)
Romney - 8 states (AK, CO, GA, MA, MT, ND, UT, WV)
Huckabee - 2 states (AR, TN)
February 4th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
This race has been quite unpredictable and I think it only appropriate that the wildcard of the anti-McCain surge from the conservatives leaves the close races up in the air. It looked like John was going to walk away with the nomination and with the major push by the conservative pundits and their rally cry, at least it has kept it interesting.
February 4th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
Coburn? That guy’s a huge homophobe– great for us okies but a disaster in the general election. Pass.