GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
I know most of you are more interested in the Republicans, so I will save them for last, but here are my forecasts for the Democrats on Tuesday.
Current Delegate Count:
2025 are needed to clinch nomination.
Alabama: The polls have been surprisingly close, but a high African American turnout will propel Obama to victory.
Alaska: I have not seen any polls for this state, but the rule of thumb is that Democrats in Republican states tend to be very liberal. You have to be very passionate to be a Democrat in a place like Alaska, Idaho, or Utah where most of your neighbors are Republicans. When you combine that with the fact that this is a caucus, you have to give it to Obama.
Arizona: Though the gap has been closing, Clinton has led in every poll here. Independents cannot vote here, and there is a high Hispanic population. Both factors bode well for Clinton.
Arkansas: Even though the Clintons abandonded this state after Bill’s Presidency in favor of the Big Apple, Hillary will still win here, and win handily.
California: This state has been trending to Obama. Despite the high Hispanic population, young voters, Independents, and latte liberals will put Obama barely over the top.
Colorado: Democrats in Western states tend to be liberal, and this is a caucus that will attract the most passionate activists. The last poll was conducted before Edwards left the race, and Obama led by 2. He will win even bigger with Edwards gone.
Connecticut: This upscale state is the place where Ned Lamont upset Joe Lieberman in the Democrat primary in 2006. It also went for Jerry Brown over Hillary’s husband in 1992. The state tends to prefer insurgents over establishment Democrats, at least in recent primaries. It has been trending Obama, and I think he will win it Tuesday.
Delaware: Your guess on this one is as good as mine, but I don’t think Democrats are overly liberal in this state. Joe Biden and Tom Carper are from the establishment wing of the party, not the moveon.org crowd. Independents cannot vote. Hillary should do especially well in the southern part of the state, and I think she wins the state overall.
Georgia: Obama wins this one in a walk for the same reason he won South Carolina in a walk.
Idaho: The Democratic caucuses in this overwhelmingly Republican state will attract the hardest core of left-wing activists. Obama wins easily.
Illinois: Easy win for Obama in Hillary’s native state.
Kansas: Easy win for Obama in his own native state.
Obama: 22 delegates
Clinton: 10 delegates
Massachusetts: This is a very Democratic state, but there are two wings of the party. There are upper class, secular liberals who will go for Obama, and there are blue collar, largely Catholic, lunch bucket liberals who will go for Hillary. Obama doesn’t connect well with the latter group which explains why he trails Hillary in all polls here despite the endorsements of Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, Deval Patrick, and the Boston Globe. Those endorsements will keep it close, but Hillary will win.
Minnesota: Perhaps I should defer to Kavon on this one, but I’ll give it a stab. This is a caucus state, and Democrats here tend to be liberal. Obama wins easily.
Missouri: Obama has the endorsement of Senator McCaskill and will do well with African American voters, but I don’t think there will be enough of them to counteract Hillary’s lead among white voters in this socially conservative but Democratic state. Obama has never led in the polls here.
New Jersey: This will be the upset of the night on the Democratic side. Though Clinton has always led here, the latest Zogby poll shows Obama trailing by only 1. The momentum is with him. This is a wealthy state with a lot of liberals who will be inclined to Obama. He wins by a hair.
New York: Much to the dismay of Republicans, Hillary Clinton is very popular in her adopted state.
North Dakota: Obama has invested more in this caucus state and will likely win it.
Oklahoma: I haven’t seen polling, but Democrats here are moderate. Independents cannot vote. Wesley Clark won here last time, and John Kerry came in third behind John Edwards. This state also borders Arkansas. Easy win for Clinton.
Tennessee: There are not as many African Americans here as in the Deep South, and white Democrats from Tennessee are moderate. Clinton wins easily.
Utah: Democrats in conservative states tend to be pretty liberal, so I will give this one to Obama for the same reason I’ve given him Idaho and Alaska.
If these predictions are correct, we will come out of Super Tuesday with the delegate count being:
Clinton: 1051 delegates
Obama: 1031 delegates
This is a nail biter. I did these states one at a time and added them up at the end. I had no idea they would only be 20 delegates apart. We’ll see how it plays out.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:41 am
I think some of this is pretty wrong-headed. You seem to working on the assumption that Obama wins very liberal, Democratic activists. This is actually Clinton’s base. Obama would wins casual yuppie liberals and youngsters. Even without looking at any polls, I think Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Minnesota and Utah will be more pro-Clinton then you suggest, and she might well win most of them. And I don’t think Kansas is Obama’s home state; I mean he’s a senator from Illinois. But, maybe I’m wrong. Other then that, I think Tennessee will be a little more pro-Obama (there actually are a fair amount of blacks there, as Harold Ford showed in 06′). Massachusetts will go for Obama, since it’s filled with the high-income yuppie liberals who love Obama. Clinton will do better in Georgia then you suspect, because she does better then Obama among blue-collar type voters, which will prevent her from losing handily in any non-South Carolina Southern state. Beyond these caveats, this all seems pretty reasonable.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:43 am
It would be great if the Democrats had the longest primary race in years. They will spend all their money and not be able to stand each other. No one is better equipped to ruin the Dem’s chance at an election than the Democrats themselves
February 4th, 2008 at 10:44 am
I predict we’re about due for a lame Duroy Murdock hit piece.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:46 am
From where I sit - which is quite a ways to the left of most readers of this blog - this strikes me as a pretty plausible and sound analysis.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:49 am
It’s also worth noting that, far more then any previous states, the Super Tuesday states will be dominated the Democratic party machines, due to an inability for candidates to campaign in every state. This has to worry Obama, as Hillary still controls the Democratic party regulars.
February 4th, 2008 at 10:54 am
SDM, thanks for the compliment. Are you actually a Democrat or are you a liberal Republican?
February 4th, 2008 at 11:03 am
based entirely on anecdotal evidence, Obama seems to be doing very well in Utah. However, a lot of the would be democratic voters in Utah might be going into the Ron Paul column. What effect will that have in other states?
February 4th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
7 - Utah Democrats would not be Ron Paul fans. Paul gets the most conservative of the conservative in Utah, and anyone committed enough to Democratic policies to be a D in Utah is fully aware of the whole range of Paul’s opinions, and won’t be jumping ship just because of the war.
February 5th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
What about New Mexico?? 26 delegates at stake. YES, that IS part of the United States of America, and they’re voting on Super Tuesday.
February 5th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
I read today that as many as 50% of California voters voted absentee several weeks ago (when Hillary had a double digit lead). This could be significant and alter your California prediction.