The Candidates
Current Delegate Count:
Alabama: This one is a McCain-Huckabee race. McCain seems to have the edge in the polls, and I think he wins it.
Alaska: Romney has dominated caucuses this year, and McCain has been unable to win them. Maine is the latest example.
Arizona: McCain will win his home state. He will win it by a narrower margin than Romney wins Massachusetts, but Arizona is winner take all, so it doesn’t matter.
Arkansas: Huckabee will win his home state also.
California: The polls here are trending Romney. This is a closed primary state, and the Schwarzenegger endorsement will be a kiss of death for McCain among conservatives. This win will be the upset of the night, and it will put Romney back in the game.
Colorado: Romney will win this one easily, like he wins most caucuses.
Connecticut: Connecticut has a long history of moderate Republicanism, from Prescott Bush to Lowell Weicker. McCain wins easily.
Delaware: Romney is not targeting this state at all from what I’ve heard.
Georgia: This state has been trending Romney, and I think he upsets McCain here. Some of Huckabee’s supporters will switch to other candidates realizing he can’t win.
Illinois: My understanding is that people vote for delegates correctly in this state. Huckabee will get some support in the Southern part of the state. Romney and McCain will be close, but McCain will hang on.
Massachusetts: Romney wins 2:1 in his home state despite constant attacks by the Boston Globe and Boston Herald.
Minnesota: Minnesota has been known to like mavericks, so I think McCain will do well here even though he typically doesn’t do well in caucuses.
Missouri: This state has been trending Romney’s way. It is a very close 3-way race, but I think Romney will prevail. Because it is winner-take-all, this is even more critical than California. If Romney doesn’t win, you can bet he’ll be pulling for Huckabee because he won’t want McCain to get the 58 delegates.
Montana: Romney is strong in Western caucuses, and the 25 delegates from this winner-take-all state will be greatly appreciated.
New Jersey: McCain is very strong in this moderate state. He should win it easily.
New York: See New Jersey.
North Dakota: Ron Paul comes in second to Romney in this caucus state.
Oklahoma: McCain, Romney, and Huckabee are all competitive here, but McCain will likely come out on top.
Tennessee: This is another close three-way race, but Romney will take this one.
Utah: Need I say more?
West Virginia: This is a state convention. There has been no polling. My instincts lead me to a Huckabee win though.
Delegate count after Super Tuesday:
February 4th, 2008 at 11:55 am
Clarence - if this holds true I don’t know what I would do but it would be huge. I will be in Boston at the Romney Party - you should stop by and celebrate with us.
I am sure others will have a lot of issues with your predictions but you seem to be as fair as possible on this site.
February 4th, 2008 at 11:57 am
Clarence, I think you forgot to add Romney’s Maine victory to the delegate count, I think he is around 92 now.
February 4th, 2008 at 11:57 am
Yes, I will be in Boston.
February 4th, 2008 at 11:59 am
I did forget to add Maine. He is now something like 5 votes behind McCain in delegates, not that the press will want to tell you that. Also, the ABC News poll and other polls that show McCain way ahead nationally sample adults or Republican primary voters. Rasmussen actually samples likely voters. I keep checking everyday to see if McCain starts to break away and he doesn’t. Today it was only 33-30 McCain.
February 4th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
Hmm, i would agree with this prediction for the most part, however, you’re dead wrong about MO (and possibly GA). I think they both go to Mac. Don’t forget that Rudy had a strong base in MO, and as with all his other support, it seems to be going almost exclusively to mccain.
February 4th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Romney is not going to win in Missouri. He’s in third place in the latest two polls.
Poll Date Sample McCain Huckabee Romney Paul Spread
RCP Average 01/30 - 02/03 - 34.5 27.8 26.5 4.0 McCain +6.7
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 02/01 - 02/03 852 LV 35 27 24 5 McCain +8.0
Mason-Dixon 01/30 - 02/01 400 LV 37 27 24 1 McCain +10.0
Rasmussen 01/31 - 01/31 593 LV 32 29 28 5 McCain +3.0
SurveyUSA 01/30 - 01/31 505 LV 34 28 30 5 McCain +4.0
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/mo/missouri_republican_primary-533.html
February 4th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Clarence - feel free to email me rbrun79 at gmail and maybe we can meet at the event. My wife was finally able to find a sitter and we’ll probably plan on staying through the CA results.
February 4th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
This gives me a little hope, but the Missouri and Georgia numbers are the huge question marks here. This is certainly the best-case scenario for Romney.
February 4th, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Does Huck drop out at this point?
February 4th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Your “current Delegate count” is wrong
Mac 97
Mitt 92
Huck 29
Paul 6
As per CNN - Mitt got 18 out of the unreported Maine landslide.
February 4th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Clarence,
I think you’re on target, but Romney will do better than you’re suggesting in West Virginia and North Dakota. Also, he has a chance at upsets in Delaware and Arizona. You’re right about Missouri. Romney will win here, good call!
February 4th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
#8, this is definately Romney’s best case scenario. For the most part, this looks about right as winners go (I have no idea about the delegate apportionments), but I do disagree on several calls:
California: Romney COULD win here, but it will be close. Moreover, the manner in which delegates are apportioned doesn’t favor Romney. Even Romney supporters admit McCain does stronger in the Democratic held districts and guess what — the delegates are apportioned by district, and since there are more Democratic districts in California McCain would likely wind up with 100 delegates if Romney wins the state by 2-3 points (if McCain wins, the ## will be even better).
I also think you are off in your predictions in Georgia, Missouri, and Tennessee. Romney hasn’t connected with Southern voters before and it won’t start now. I’d give McCain a win in Tennessee and (at a minimum) one of Georgia and Missouri (with Huckabee close in both states I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt for one).
West Virginia: this state probably has the highest percentage of military families in the US. Huckabee will be strong, but I think McCain wins this one.
Illinois: Polls have McCain winning by a landslide here, so I really don’t see how the delegate totals can be this close.
February 4th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
BEWARE……………
The RETURN……………………
February 4th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
It could be that Romney runs up huge scores in Republican distance, but McCain carrieds Dems Dist.
February 4th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
I mostly agree with this. I’m not sure Romney wins Missouri, but he has a chance. And if he wins California, he’ll have a bigger margin then that due to the 20 extra delegates the winner gets. All in all, I’d probably add a net 30 delegates to McCain’s total and subtract 30 from Romney’s for a realistic outcome. But, if he wins Missouri, there’s a fairly good chance that he ends up within 100-115 delegates of McCain.
February 4th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
McCain 646
Romney 430
Huckabee 187
Paul 40
Texas and Ohio will then be decision points.
Bottom line, bring on the brokered convention, where the base will NEVER allow McNasty to walk away with
the nomination!
February 4th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
Do all of you Romney fans realize that one week after super Tuesday is VA-MD-DC and McCain will likely win all 3, which will put the finishing touches on Romney?
February 4th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
#17 Brett S
Sure, but does Huck drop out at that point?
To be even more pessimistic, I think McCain will lose the general anyway so it doesn’t matter.
February 4th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
Whether Mitt gets the nomination or not, I do not recall anyone being written off more times and had more beating against him. Even with John touting inevitability, Mitt is still hanging around. It took money to get his message out as the anti-Mitt crowd has pushed, but that can only happen with a strong message. If I spent 150 million dollars saying I would invest 20 billion into creating a healthier Oreo cookie (since we love them so much) I would get a good backing of Oreo lovers, but no one would nominate me for president. Based on the numbers still pushing for Mitt tells you his message has substance. If Mitt survives Super Tuesday, it will be interesting to see how the surge of Anti-McCain affects the post portion of the race. I did not expect to see the push we are seeing now by the conservatives to stop mCCain.
February 4th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
I honestly believe that John McCain is too old, too nice and too LIBERAL to beat Hillary.
February 4th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
GO MITT!
February 4th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
I am on the ground here in Tennessee, and I would be shocked if Romney were able to pull out a victory. I thought it would now go to Huckabee, but it seems to be trending McCain. Don’t forget that Fred Thompson is still on the ballot here and will likely have enough votes to effect the outcome (especially in early voting).
February 4th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
PIISSSS!
February 4th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
Your delegate math is a little off. For example. In GA the winner of the state gets 30 delegates just for winning plus 3 for each district he wins.
There are similar rules in other states that don’t quite jive with your numbers.
Also, ND is winner take all so one person will get all those delegates. WV is winner take all as well. In states like TN, IL and OK the winner of the state will probably get almost all of the delegates with a small number being won by someone else who managed to narrowly win a particular Congressional District.
February 4th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
[...] what I’m about to mention might be a little optomistic, it is not completely off the wall. This article from Race 4 2008 makes a prediction that would put Romney only about 130 delegates behind McCain [...]