The Candidates
Jim Geraghty’s secret source (”Middle Cheese”) in the Romney campaign has this to say about California:
I’ve become more optimistic in the past 24-48 hours about Romney’s chances in California.
Multiple data sources, including both public and internal polling, now show a clear trend for Mitt, and possibly a very sharp one. Both national and local conservative talk radio bashing McCain is have an impact on California GOP primary voters, who tend to be very conservative. I think I’m comfortable saying now that he could win about 2/3 of the districts in California, which would also give him the bonus delegates and the narrative of winning the state. I didn’t think this was likely at all 24-48 hours ago.
2/3 of the delegates would be a fantastic scenario for Mitt. I am a little skepitcal, but I guess it’s an optimistic (Rom-timistic) possibility.
February 5th, 2008 at 11:38 am
BEWARE…………….
February 5th, 2008 at 11:40 am
Romtimistic? Oh, no. No, no, no, no, no.
I thought “Joe-mentum” in 2004 was bad.
February 5th, 2008 at 11:45 am
Interesting. Of course this is the same Middle Cheese who said this:
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjU3ODYzOWY0ZjQ1MWM2MzEyZmE2YzNhMzM2N2YxOTM=
Granted, that was on a Friday before the primary, but still…
February 5th, 2008 at 11:47 am
David,
That was prior to the Fork Tongue Express Lie. Actually, that’s probably one of the reasons it happened.
February 5th, 2008 at 11:50 am
The conventional wisdom is that McCain would do better in the Democratic districts and would get more delegates, but the Romney camp understands this. I talked to a Romney staffer in Florida last week who said Mitt was targeting certain Democratic districts with small numbers of Republicans and getting them out to vote so that he could rack up his delegates, whether or not he wins statewide. Now it looks like he will win statewide also. California Republicans are not especially conservative on social issues, but they are probably more conservative than Republicans in most states on fiscal issues. This is one of the only states where Rudy dropping out may have actually benefitted Mitt over McCain because many fiscal conservatives who were supporting Giuliani may be unwilling to support McCain because of his opposition to the Bush tax cuts. Immigration helps Romney here also (though it wouldn’t in a general election), and the Schwarzenegger endorsement actually hurts McCain because Schwarzenegger is popular with Independents and some Democrats, less so with conservatives.
February 5th, 2008 at 11:51 am
Well, I am gone for the day. See you guys tonight.
February 5th, 2008 at 11:53 am
#4 - Jason, really, as you know there was far more publicity ABOUT the comment - the so-called “lie;” Mitt’s reaction, etc. - than there was of the comment itself. Blaming Mitt’s 5 point loss on it is utterly delusional.
February 5th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Huckabee is leading in the latest GA poll:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/InsiderAdvantage_MajorityOpinionfinalGAGOP-feb5-2008.html
February 5th, 2008 at 11:58 am
Wow, Romney gets 78% of the Hispanic vote in Georgia. That’s phenomenal!!
February 5th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
If romney cant win GA it would be nice if huck did.
February 5th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
Georgia is split as far as delegates, but I find it amazing how different the Hispanic vote is going versus Florida. Does anyone have a good explanation for it?
February 5th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
“Huckabee is leading in the latest GA poll:”
You should have said that he’s tied with McCain. I still think Huckabee ends up third in GA.
February 5th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
bulldozer,
It doesn’t matter if it goes to Huck or McCain. A vote for Huck is just a vote for McCain. Mitt knows that Huckabee’s delegates automatically go to McCain in convention, so the delegate calculus is unaffected. But if Mitt wins Georgia, he gets an extra 30 delegates on top of the proportional split of the remaining 40 delegates. THAT, would be huge.
February 5th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Based on past performance…
Middle Cheese is pretty moldy.