The Candidates
AL: (47) McCain
AK: (28) Romney- These people love ANWR
AZ: (52) Toss Up- McCain leads watch for heavy Mormon turn out
AR: (34) Huckabee
CA: (172) Romney
CO: (46) Romney
CT: (29) McCain
DE: (18) Possible either way (talked to state vice chair- he says it’s anhyones guess and it could to McCain or Romney by 10 points)
GA: (71) Romney
IL: (70) Mccain by nose, delegates split nearly evenly
MA: Romney
MN: (40) McCain
MO: (58) McCain
MT Romney
NJ: (52) McCain
NY: (101) McCain
ND: (26) Romney
OK: (41) McCain
TN: (54) McCain
UT: (35) Romney
WV: Romney (He’s there this morning)
It’s all in fun, I don’t consider myself a great predictor. But I think there is a possibility Romney could walk away with DE, WV GA and MA. In this scenario, there would be a lot of good vibes going out for Romney as California is voting.
I tend to give Mitt he benefit of the doubt, because frankly, he has more of surge right now than McCain. McCain is counting on indies showing up for him, whereas Romney is riding a wave of backlash. So I felt comfortable giving GA and WV to Mitt right now.
February 5th, 2008 at 11:21 am
BEWARE………….
The RETURN……………….
February 5th, 2008 at 11:24 am
My predictions:
AL - McCain
AK - Romney
AZ - McCain but not by much and exit polling will show > 90 % for Mitt
AR - Huckabee
CA - Romney but delegates will be nearly evenly split
CO - Romney
CT - McCain
DE - McCain, largely due to Wilmington voting like NJ
GA - McCain
IL - McCain
MA - Romney but McCain will get high single digits of delegates
MN - McCain
MO - McCain
MT - Romney
NJ - McCain
NY - McCain
ND - McCain
OK - McCain
TN - McCain
UT - Huckabee (Just kidding)
WV - Romney
And we’ll see in about twelve hours…
February 5th, 2008 at 11:24 am
on AZ I meant that exit polling will show > 90 % Mormon support for Mitt
February 5th, 2008 at 11:25 am
I hope you’re right Jason.
February 5th, 2008 at 11:25 am
Jason,
If Romney gets GA and CA this race will be turned upside down. After super Tuesday we have various voting days with only a few states voting on the same day, this could work out to Romney’s advantage.
February 5th, 2008 at 11:30 am
I think this is a plausible scenario for every state he named. Some of these are just hard to predict. My goal is to have Romney take California, and at least one of the three competitive Southern and border states (MO, TN, or GA).
February 5th, 2008 at 11:31 am
I wouldnt say winning GA and CA would turn the race upside down. It would just give Romney incentive to keep his checkbook open a bit longer. Today is not about winning states (like it was in Florida or SC), its all about the delegate count (as Romney people have been saying from day one).
February 5th, 2008 at 11:31 am
these look a lot like my predictions. Hope these will be correct only time will tell
February 5th, 2008 at 11:35 am
Hey Jason,
Isn’t Idaho voting today? No one seems to be talking about it, but when they show the map on the news, Idaho jumps up as one of super-Tuesday states.
February 5th, 2008 at 11:38 am
Idaho is voting on the Democratic side m.t. They are not voting on our side. I wish they were! I am wondering that with all the attention paid to the Democratic race, just about all Independents will choose Democratic ballots. Republican turnout may be low. Many Republicans, thinking McCain is going to win anyway, will just stay home. Romney could slip under the radar screen and do well. I’m not suggesting Romney is going to take New York or anything like that, but if he does take California and a couple states like Georgia or Missouri or Minnesota break his way, he will be in good shape. Next week will be rough with MD, VA, and DC voting, but after that we should be moving to friendlier turf.
February 5th, 2008 at 11:40 am
#9 Idaho republican primary is in late May, one of the last three states. Too bad for Romney. Democratic primary is in Idaho today.
February 5th, 2008 at 11:43 am
Idahoans rejoice! This year your vote will count much more than other years. The race will not be over after Super Tuesday. The battle will be taken all the way to the convention and every delegate will count.
February 5th, 2008 at 11:45 am
That is a shame. Romney would have taken Idaho more easily than Utah.
February 5th, 2008 at 11:49 am
LOL:
AZ: (52) Toss Up
February 5th, 2008 at 11:55 am
WTF kind of “prediction” is “toss up” anyway?
February 5th, 2008 at 11:56 am
I think the difference in this election will be what Huckabee voters decide to do.
February 5th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
FIGHT!!! FIGHT !!! FIGHT!!!
February 5th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
is jason literally predicting the state will toss a collective coin to determine the winner?
February 5th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
sampo,
I gotta hand it to you, that’s a funny comment. But why not? Yes that’s my prediction, AZ will collectively toss a coin on the 50 yard line of Cindy McCain’s $50 million dollar football stadium.
February 5th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
during the new england’s *world series* appearance?
February 5th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
I’m thinking Mitt could possibly have about 5 third place finishes today. *cross fingers*
February 5th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Jason,
Your guess is as reasonable as anybody’s, and it must have hurt to put Illinois in the McCain column, but I sure hope you’re wrong about Missouri.
February 5th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
The thing about Illinois is that the “beauty contest” has little bearing on the delegate selection. It could go all delegates for Romney, McCain or even Guliani, since you are also voting for the name of the pledged delegate.