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Much sweat has been spilt in worry over the electoral appeal of Barack Obama. After all, he is young, charismatic, and appealing. Last night, however, we saw that perhaps he is not the indestructable election machine that many have come to fear. As Sean Oxendine has already pointed out, Obama is not playing as well outside of his black-and-white urban/surburban constituency – particularly in must-have states in the upper south and the midwest.
But, hidden in yesterday’s exit polling was another gem. Latinos voted for Clinton by a 3-1 margin. Much was been written on the friction between the black and latino communities. I don’t profess to understand it – but evidently it is real. In California, Obama won black voters by a 4-1 margin, and won white voters by a few points. But, Asian and latino voters each went to Clinton by about a 3-1 margin. What does this tell us?
Well, aside from the obvious observation that apparently the white folks were the only people NOT motivated by race in the California election, it tells us that the latino vote would be ripe for the plucking in an Obama-McCain race. And – though I know it doesn’t win many fans on this Website – McCain is the perfect candidate to capitalize on that growing, influential constituency.
Pundits have pooh-poohed the Giuliani and McCain claims that they could turn blue states like California and New York purple, or even Red. Well, in a state like California, taking latinos by a 3-1 margin was the difference between victory and defeat for Hillary Clinton. It could be the same for the one Republican that could appeal to that constituency in a Clinton-less general election – John McCain.
Latinos are an increasingly important part of the electorate in purple states like Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Virginia. And those are all states that the GOP will likely need to win to hold the White House in 2008. Obama’s strength in the Democrat primary continues to grow. But to those who are paying close attention, his aura of inevitability in the general election is quickly fading with prospect of a McCain candidacy.
February 6th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
would the latinos be enough to offset the number of conservatives in the base that would not show up to vote for mccain?
February 6th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
Party trumps race in a general election. McCain is no Reagan and he won’t convince enough latinos to vote for him purely on a racial basis. Obama will always be able to out-liberal McCain. Don’t fool yourself.
February 6th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
Ditto Michael.
February 6th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
That is until he uses a racial slur that includes them.
February 6th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
The latinos are becoming a huge voting demographic, and they have the potential to really derail the illegal immigration fight. Clinton is depending upon them to win the presidency, and McCain will appeal to them as well, telling them that there will be a special pathway to citizenship. This is not your father;s country anymore, for better or worse.
February 6th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
its too bad we don’t have a non-cuban in congress to put on the ticket and exploit this
February 6th, 2008 at 1:10 pm
Does anyone know how many Delegates McCain got in California last night out of the 173 that were up for grabs?
February 6th, 2008 at 1:14 pm
#7
Probably 164 of the 170.
February 6th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Bryan, McCain got almost ALL of them.
February 6th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
164 out of 170, and probably the 3 unpledged delegates, too.
February 6th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Why do the black members of Congress from LA get consistent support from latinos?
Don’t forget one thing: As between a black dem and a white dem, the latinos will vote for a white dem. But between a black Dem and a Republican (even McCain) they will vote for the black dem.
Obama’s “latino problem” is limited to a primary. There will be no latino problem for him in the fall.
February 6th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
Thanks guys, so any word on what Romney is going to do. Granted i think he may do well this weekend with the caucuses of Kansas and Washington State. But next Tuesday is the Potomac Primary of Maryland,Virginia,and DC. And as far as i know is that all those states are OPEN PRIMARY. Which would mean good news for McCain, and the fact that Virginia has 63 Del’s in a winner take all i believe also. So does Romney go on b/c i dont think it looks to rosy for him?
February 6th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
#12
That is the question of the day.
February 6th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
Good analysis. The Latino vote seems to have reached a critical mass
in which they control the outcome of elections. Bush was of this
opinion in 2000 and tried to convince others, but it didn’t seem to be working.
However, the success of McCain and the lack of success of Obama indicate
that Bush was right all along. It is unfortunate that in order to cater to
the Latino vote, you have to encourage more illegal immigration.
February 6th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
By the way, where in the world has LJ been? I guess he’s still recovering from a long night of celebration but i didnt even see him on here last night? Where are you LJ?
February 6th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
Yeah, LJ, where are you — and ANY WORD ON OLIVE BRANCHES to economic conservatives yet???
February 6th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
McCain’s camp claiming a 491-delegate lead.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/06/643431.aspx
Getting the message about your electability, Mr. Romney? You can be right on all the issues and still can’t win a single primary (as opposed to caucus) out of your 3 homestates. PEOPLE DON’T LIKE YOU.
February 6th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
Wow Micheal, this analysis strikes me as absolute fantasy.
Its a little like saying that, since Obama won the black vote by overwhelming majorities (or, more to the point – Clinton lost the black vote by overwhelming majorities), then the GOP is in prime position to pick up substantial black support if Hillary is the nominee.
Nice try.
Clinton won Latinos because the Clintons have a long-established relationship with the Latino community – including support for, and advancement of Latino politicians throughut the Clinton administration. Obama is simply an unknown quantity, having not had any real presence in the Latino community outside of Chicago (where he won the Latino vote).
I dont see any reason to suspect that there is black-Latino hostility going on here – just a familiarity and admiration for the Clintons. I suspect that if Obama is the nominee, he will get as much of the Latino vote in Nov. as Clinton would.
February 6th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Yeah, I think hispanics are more familiar and there for comfortable with Clinton. What is also instructive is that there is a generation gap in the latino vote with older ones favoring Clinton and younger favoring Obama. I suspect the older ones remember Bill Clinton. I think its more fair to consider the votes to be pro-Clinton rather than against Obama. Remember, these are voters who have registered as democrats and therefore align with those interests. Putting up a senior citizen who talks about everlasting war is not exactly an hispanic vote-getter. Finally, Obama got about 40% of the hispanic vote in Arizona and must be doing well in NM too since its so close.
February 6th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
HOW is Obama ‘young’???
Please tell me why everyone says this.
He is pushing 50 and so is his wife.
They are 46.
JFK was young early 40s and Jackie was 31.
February 6th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
huh?
Obama is 46. JFK, our youngest president ever, was 43.
Does that strike you as a big difference?
McCain is what, 92?
February 6th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
As has been said, the only Latino problem that Obama has is named Clinton. Obama grabs more Latinos v McCain than the Dems pulled last time around.
February 6th, 2008 at 7:56 pm
It is possible that latinos are distrusting of a black candidate, although it could just be the Clinton name.
The question is, who would be a VP who appeals to hispanics? The Dems have one ready made in Bill Richardson – he’s certainly well qualified for the job.
Do the Republicans have anyone like that who can run? (Martinez is ineligible) I can’t think of any…
February 7th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
The facts: Obama is, plainly speaking, just unpopular and unimpressive to Asians and Latinos. His resume outside of his Senate win is nothing to be excited about. Many Latinos and Asians have accomplished much more with many more difficulties. And giving a decent speech in his preacher like oratory fails to make him special. There are thousands of good speakers in America. On the same token his debate skills as one of my latino friends recently said are “unimpressive and novice.†While Hillary is considered to be like family to our communities. Nominating Obama may swing these voting groups more to Republicans in the general election when McCain is the candidate. Obama talks about no red or blue states, but nominating him will certainly convert some blue states to red. I guarantee he loses every swing state with large latino populations and losing large portions of the Asian vote if not all to a McCain. These are just the facts. If Democrats want any chance of winning in November they need to be more realistic and support Hillary. If not, more blue states will become red. I admire Hillary but support no one yet, but I will say that she is the only one that can pick up the swing states due to her Latino and Asian backing. Democrats will be massacred with Obama as a nominee. I want to see change but only Hillary has a chance of beating McCain. Otherwise Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, Nevada and maybe many more states go to McCain. These are real facts.