GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Yesterday, I asked whether or not Barack Obama would stand by his promise to take federal matching funds for the general election, if he and John McCain are their respective nominees. At his press conference an hour ago, it seemed as if Obama said that he would indeed honor it. This is potentially huge news.
Asked about public financing, he tells reporters in Milwaukee, “If I am the nominee, then I will make sure our people talk to John McCain’s people to make sure we abide by the same rules.”
That’s not exactly a promise to reach agreement, and Obama could propose rules intolerable to McCain - no contributions over $150, for instance.
But it certainly sounds like he’s moving back toward what had seemed, a year ago, like a firm commitment.
“My folks will sit down and see whether we can arrive at common sense ground rules” if he’s the nominee, he said.
I expected that he would find some way to wiggle out of his pledge, in light of the fact that he’s been pulling in $30 million a month. Were he to accept federal funds,his fundraising would not only be restricted, but the amount he’d be able to spend in each state would be capped. That would effective erase his entire fundraising advantage and completely level the playing field. If it goes through, this might be the best thing to happen to McCain’s chances in November.
UPDATE: The Senator raises the issue at a rally in Northern Wisconsin today:
“I made the commitment to the American people that if I were the nominee of my party, I would accept public financing,” McCain said Friday in Oshkosh, Wis. “I expect Senator Obama to keep his word to the American people as well. This is all about a commitment that we made to the American people.
“I am going to keep my commitment,” he said. “The American people have every reason to expect him to keep his commitment.”
February 15th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
I have worried that McCain may have a money problem in the general election since Democrats are more passionate this year, so this may mitigate it.
February 15th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
I don’t understand it though. Would Obama really kneecap himself like that? I understand he’s a strong believer in campaign financing, but come on. If I was pulling in his kind of money, I would rather take my lumps as a hypocrite in the general, if I can outspend my opponent by 2 or even 3 to 1. There’s no way his advisers should have even let him say this much.
Any ideas?
February 15th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
it will all come down to 527s
February 15th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
Jeffrey,
Doubt it. McCain has said that he will disavow any 527 ads aired on his behalf. He even denounced a pro-McCain ad that was aired back in December. I’d be surprised if Obama didn’t denounce ads on his side too.
February 15th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
Obama does not want to be seem as backing tracking on his word. Not only did they promise this together but Obama respond to some qustionare from a group that he would stay in the system and pointed out McCain would to.
February 15th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
LJ,
I agree with you on #2. If I were Obama’s advisor, I would tell him to have “our” people meet with McCain’s people, make impossible demands, and then call the whole agreement off. Obama WANTS to freely fundraise, as he could probably outraise McCain 2-1. But they need a pretense so he doesn’t do too much damage to his “agent of change” image. He’ll get it out of the way early, like while the media is focused on the Hillary meltdown.
February 15th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
LJ - McCain and Obama can disavow them all they want, but 527’s will have a major impact this election cycle - only to be magnified if both parties decide upon a ‘civil’ campaign.
You can try to keep a lid on this stuff for only so long before the pressure is too much and things explode over to 527s.
February 15th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
#4 - “Doubt it. McCain has said that he will disavow any 527 ads aired on his behalf”
That’s fine, and I guess I’ll try to take his “straight-talk” word for it, but that doesn’t negate the effect that the 527’s have. JMac could denounce them all day long, but as long as the 527 has the money to make ads, it will, and people will still get the 527 message.
February 15th, 2008 at 3:24 pm
The 527s could get ugly this cycle.
Look for ads about McCain’s divorce and infidelity on the one side, and attacks on Obama’s Afro-centrist (supremist?) church on the other.
February 15th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
MWS - 527’s will feel like they’re shooting fish in a barrel with these nominees for the reasons you cited and many more
February 15th, 2008 at 3:38 pm
Have you seen this article. This is what scares me about Obama. http://www.townhall.com/Columnists/CharlesKrauthammer/2008/02/15/obama,_the_platitude_salesman
February 15th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
How effective have 527s been this cycle?
To voters these ads may be losing their power. Voters are getting used to politicians saying “I approved this message”.
An ad without an “I approved this message” may be less credible.
February 15th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
Looks like McCain is stepping in it
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080215/ap_on_el_pr/mccain
February 15th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
I wondered about this for a while now. Obama raised record amounts of cash from record numbers of average voters - small internet donations and checks from “regular people.” I wonder how much of that can continue. “Regular people” were sending in money to a candidate who started as an underdog and now is very close to being the nominee. But “regular people” may not be financially able to continue sending in those checks once he actually becomes the nominee. He’ll get a lot, to be sure, but I don’t see him spiting himself in any deal with McCain. He may not want to set too low an amount in his deal with McCain, because he’s gonna need to get some bigger checks from those doners wealthier than “regular people.”
February 15th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
LJ-
Great post… my two cents…
Ana Marie Cox (a/k/a the former Wonkette) did a SwampCast on this very point yesterday - it’s worth watching for the detailed info on the McCain/Obama “agreement” on public $$$-
http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/02/swampcast_general_election_pre.html
My comment to her SwampCast - it’s equally apt here, per your post-
“I would be very surprised if Obama would agree to throw away one of his greatest advantages in the general election - his vastly greater fundraising machine (past, present, and future). It’s arguably his greatest advantage…
I agree that regardless of what term is used “agreement”, “pledge”, etc., that it all boils down to the same thing - an informal agreement. But it’s not in Obama’s best interest to do so.
On an underlying level, I do agree that one of the strongest angles that McCain has in the general is the battle of character and personality. He will need to mute the party-label red/blue dichotomy for four reasons:
a) The GOP is really unpopular right now;
b) Both he and Obama are enormously popular with independent voters, who hold the balance of power;
c) Given McCain’s stands against many conservative orthodoxies, it would be impractical for him to try to win just by pointing to the “R” after his name and trying to excite the base.
d) Despite HRC’s muddled centrism, the Republican base is far more hostile to HRC than they are to Obama (ironically, due to the same reasons that the Democratic leaning independents are far more hostile to HRC - personality and image.)”
February 15th, 2008 at 8:01 pm
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February 22nd, 2008 at 6:44 am
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/02/21/fec_poses_fresh_problem_for_mc.html?hpid=topnews
McCain committed to accept public funds when his campaign was in the dregs and now the FEC is holding him to that! That would cap what he can spend for the General election at $54 Million, but he’s already spent $49 million of it - leaving him just $5 million for the next 6 months of campaigning.
here is the FEC letter:
http://www.fec.gov/press/press2008/FECtoMcCain.PDF
-n
April 27th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
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