While Kavon and Sean both make good points in their analysis, they wonder why some of us continue to be pessimistic about 2008. Later polls even seem to suggest that they may be right in their optimism. I am still pessimistic, although I do see an opening for McCain to strike.

Let’s look at some latest numbers from Rasmussen, who most on this site believe to carry a conservative slant who has a new poll out covering electoral math:

If the Presidential election were held today, the Democratic candidate would likely win 284 Electoral Votes, the Republican candidate would likely win 216 Electoral Votes while 38 more would be in the Toss-up category.

If “leaners” are not included, the Democrats lead 248 Electoral Votes to 189. To reach the magic number of 270 and win the election, the Democratic candidate would need to win 22 of the 101 Electoral Votes from states that are Toss-Ups or Lean modestly towards one party or the other.

Some could argue that this is because of the Obama bubble that has yet to burst. Let’s look at another poll from Rasmussen, this one from Tuesday:

A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 61% of Americans would like to see U.S. troops brought home from Iraq within a year. That’s up a point from a week ago and two points from two weeks ago. Over the last eighteen weeks, the number wanting troops home within a year has ranged from a low of 57% to a high of 64%.

Twenty-four percent (24%) now want the troops brought home immediately.

Looking at the other end of the spectrum, 34% want troops to remain in Iraq until the mission is complete. That is down two points from a week ago. The number of Americans who want the troops to remain and finish the mission had ranged from 32% to 39% since tracking began.

From Thursday February 7:

Just 19% of America’s voters believe the nation is better off today than it was four years ago. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 74% disagree.

Just 4% of Democrats believe the nation is better off while 91% disagree. Sixteen percent (16%) of unaffiliated voters say the nation is better off.

Among Republicans, 39% say the nation is better off while 51% disagree.

Sixteen percent (16%) say the country is heading in the right direction while 78% disagree and say the United States is on the wrong track. These figures are slightly more pessimistic than they were in December. Women are more pessimistic than men. Younger voters are less pessimistic than those who used to be young.

Tuesday January 5:

During January, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats jumped to 38.7%. That’s up 2.4 percentage points over the past month. With just one exception, it’s also the largest share of the population for the Democrats since Rasmussen Reports began releasing monthly updates in January 2004 (see history from January 2004 to present). The sole exception came in December 2004 when 38.8% of American adults considered themselves Democrats.

In January of this year, the number of Republicans faded a point to 33.1%. While that’s down a point from December, it’s still a better total for the GOP than any other month since June 2006.

The fact is… we are fighting an unpopular war. Not only that, the democrats are uniform in their opposition to it. McCain is a popular candidate with independents, but how many of those independent voters support the war?

Let’s look at some other polls for comparison. How does the country view the president’s job approval? From cqpolitics.com:

The number of Americans who disapprove of President Bush’s performance on seven major issues has grown, according to two new polls released Wednesday. A Feb.11-14 Gallup poll says that overall, 65 percent of Americans disapprove of the president’s performance compared to 31 percent who approve. His approval ratings have consistently been below 40 percent since Sept. 2006.

Bush did not score a majority approval rating on any of these issues: terrorism, foreign affairs, Iraq, the economy, energy policy, health care policy or immigration. His best rating - 47 percent approval - came on the issue of terrorism. His lowest marks were for handling of immigration. The biggest drop in approval was on his handling of the economy, falling from 41 percent last year to 27 percent in this most recent survey.

What McCain must do is capitalize on the recent increases in the support for the war. Although it is still unpopular, support is on the rise, hovering at 40% according to USA Today.

McCain also should take Obama on for not supporting the surge, which has proven successful. From the above USA Today article:

Both leading Democratic presidential candidates opposed sending more troops to Iraq last year.

Now, Obama’s website says: “At great cost, our troops have helped reduce violence in some areas of Iraq, but even those reductions do not get us below the unsustainable levels of violence of mid-2006. Moreover, Iraq’s political leaders have made no progress in resolving the political differences at the heart of their civil war.”

The trick will be to double the support for the war by November. It’s doable, but it’s a longshot. The Democrats will have to be divided over the war, or McCain will be in trouble.