GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania General Election Poll, conducted Feb. 13th-18th, 2008
- John McCain 44%
- Barack Obama 43%
Interviews were completed with 640 registered adults in Pennsylvania.
And why shouldn’t he? That’s what happens when the Republican presidential nominee is the first “JFK Republican,” carried to the nomination by seniors, Catholics, veterans, and domestically moderate defense hawks, the very voting blocs that dominate the electoral-rich Keystone State.
This doesn’t surprise me in the least bit. In 2004, Sen. Kerry bested President Bush in Pennsylvania. But that year, it was Sen. Kerry who was more culturally similar to the average Pennsylvanian, who likely identified with a middle-aged, Roman Catholic veteran far more than with an evangelical with a Texas twang. But in a McCain/Obama race, it will be McCain who is more culturally similar to Pennsylvanians as an elderly war hero with center-right positions on the issues facing off against a post-racial uber-intellectual who speaks like a collectivist and whose wife seems to have a major chip on her shoulder when it comes to our country. To put it another way, McCain will win all of the voters in places like Pennsylvania who cast ballots for President Bush. But he’ll also win millions of JFK-style Democrats who voted for John Kerry in 2004. And that’s what will give him the win in a state that Bush lost by only two points.
In the same poll, Clinton and McCain are tied.
Clinton leads McCain among Catholics by seven points. McCain leads Obama among Catholics by four points.
Clinton beats McCain by two points among voters over 55 years of age. McCain beats Obama by five among over 55s.
Query: if Obama can’t win Pennsylvania at the height of Obamania, how does he plan to win the state once his numbers are brought down to earth? And if Obama loses the trio of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, all of which he is currently losing despite being at his peak, how does he get to 270 in November?
February 21st, 2008 at 10:48 pm
Your headline is misleading. With a MoE of +/-3.9% McCain does not “lead”. Weak.
February 21st, 2008 at 10:49 pm
Let’s not crown that old liberal king yet.
http://thehuckreport.blogspot.com/2008/02/mike-huckabee-visits-plano-texas.html
February 21st, 2008 at 10:49 pm
Obama’s statements that he would meet with any Castro will assure that Florida stays in the Republican column
February 21st, 2008 at 10:50 pm
For those Republicans considering a vote for Obama (I still can’t understand that decision but there are some who say they’ll vote for him), this article should explain why that’s a really dumb idea. He is far from a unifying force in the Senate, and he’d set back conservative advances by decades.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23276453
February 21st, 2008 at 10:55 pm
DaveG, Obama’s only hope would be a Sgt Pepper’s type comeback in November and a Magial Mystery Tour.
But he
Can’t Buy me Love
February 21st, 2008 at 10:56 pm
So, DaveG does this mean that we don’t need Tom Ridge on the ticket as VP?
February 21st, 2008 at 10:56 pm
Nice job looking at the intereals, because I think those are more important at this point.
February 21st, 2008 at 11:02 pm
Jonathan,
Heh. We’re not going to see Tom Ridge on the ticket. But given that it would probably pad McCain’s margin in PA by another couple of points, maybe we should
February 21st, 2008 at 11:05 pm
I think a Tim Pawnetly type will pad his numbers there too.
February 21st, 2008 at 11:06 pm
McCain also does better against Obama than against Clinton among lower income voters and political moderates.
February 21st, 2008 at 11:08 pm
Peter, you’ve spammed every thread with that Huck link. He’s done; get over it.
February 21st, 2008 at 11:09 pm
Obama is currently losing to Clinton in Ohio and Pennsylvania, mainly because he has not campaigned there. Clinton and McCain are already known. The polling will change after the March primaries.
There is also the possibility that McCain will not be the nominee. The Wash Post and NYTimes are planning follow up pieces to today’s stories. McCain won’t drop out so there will be a convention fight and the question will be which of the vanquished candidates should be the fill-in.
February 21st, 2008 at 11:11 pm
Axel: the idea of a hit job in the WAPO and the NYT derailing the Republican nominee is a naive folly.
February 21st, 2008 at 11:16 pm
Dave,
You’ve hit my state right on the head, a rare state where Hillary would be tougher. McCain can make credible inroads among seniors and working class voters here in SW PA against Obama that would be tougher against “a Clinton.” McCain cleans up the rural middle T. Obama gets the same Philly votes in suburban vote outside Philly that Hillary would. Obama still wins Pittsburgh but by smaller margins than Hillary.
PA and OH are very much on the table for us with Hillary out. And if Obama can’t win PA, he’s sunk.
February 21st, 2008 at 11:17 pm
Hello, all-
DaveG turns in his usual fine work on the analysis front. My two cents to him and the commenters-
#1 Caroline is right. It’s a tie. Let’s not get too excited.
Per Dave’s question on how Obama could win in November w/o PA, OH, and FL?
He can’t. However, the key question is if that scenario is likely. It could be argued that no Democrat could win this year by just losing FL and OH (i.e., the result in both 2000 and 2004, so memorably), since the electoral votes necessary to procure victory would be needed to come from a combination of less competitive states (New Mexico, Iowa, West Virginia). New Mexico and Iowa went from blue to red between 2000 and 2004; WV went for GWB twice but was a longtime Democratic bastion in presidential races and downballot races as well.
Accordingly, if Obama were to lose those three states, he would need to win EVERY other state that might be remotely competitive, and that’s a tall order.
#12 Axel makes a good point in that one reason PA is competitive is that it is thus far the only large state to be completely untouched by Obamamania firsthand (with Texas and Ohio now on the block). If the Democratic primary is competitive on April 22 - and we have no reason to think it won’t be - Obama will gain due to buying ads and campaigning, as would HRC, if she has rallied by that point…
February 21st, 2008 at 11:26 pm
Geez Dave,
What the heck has happened to you? McCain winning, by 1 pt. with a 4pt MOE?
Tell ya what. Check out the polling after Obama does a little campaigning.
I can assure you, looking at what has happened to Hillary, that if you start with a 1 pt “lead”, before the show comes to town, you be in big trouble.
February 21st, 2008 at 11:28 pm
Tano, you are acting like Pennsylvania is on another planet. You don’t think the Keystone State has seen the news since January? The only people who don’t know about Obamamania have been living under a rock for the last 6 months
February 21st, 2008 at 11:28 pm
I agree Obama looks like a force, but wait for the Clinton fallout. A lot of people who support her do not want to vote for Obama and they say they are voting for McCain if Obama wins.
February 22nd, 2008 at 12:10 am
McCain will be helped in PA by age demographics. It has one of the oldest populations (2nd to Florida I believe, at least when I lived in PA) as well as a much larger than average veteren population, which will give McCain a big boost.
February 22nd, 2008 at 12:19 am
When is Romney getting back in? I’d like to be able to vote for someone.
February 22nd, 2008 at 12:28 am
I may understand you incorrectly DaveG, but are you seriously comparing JFK with McCain?
February 22nd, 2008 at 12:35 am
This issue has been ignored today, but is a biggie. It concerns McCain’s attempt to exit public financing. As a personal plug, the election lawyers mentioned are former colleagues.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/21/AR2008022103141.html?hpid=topnews
February 22nd, 2008 at 1:16 am
Axel G,
I’ve been following the McCain financial follies recently and it looks like he’s having trouble getting his pecuniary ducks in a row. This is one area where it would pay to have a good fund-raiser on the bottom of the ticket (Giuliani, Romney, etc..). With all things equal except for fund-raising, Obama could likely beat McCain come the fall due to the size of his war-chest. Heck, Hillary can’t even keep up with him!
February 22nd, 2008 at 1:51 am
I’d caution readers to have the same skepticism about this poll as they have about the polls in MO, IA and VA.
February 22nd, 2008 at 2:52 am
“I may understand you incorrectly DaveG, but are you seriously comparing JFK with McCain?”
I think what he means is that like JFK, McCain has proven to have appeal for working-class Catholics and PA is chock full of ‘em.
February 22nd, 2008 at 9:07 am
[...] DaveG explains why polls have John McCain up over Barack Obama in Pennsylvania: That’s what happens when the Republican presidential nominee is the first “JFK Republican,� carried to the nomination by seniors, Catholics, veterans, and domestically moderate defense hawks, the very voting blocs that dominate the electoral-rich Keystone State. [...]
February 22nd, 2008 at 9:33 am
Rasmussen:
Obama 49
McCain 39
February 22nd, 2008 at 9:52 am
DaveG, that is hardly a lead.
February 22nd, 2008 at 10:02 am
A one point lead in one poll does not a lead make. Perhaps he can win PA in the general, but there’s a long time between then and now…
February 22nd, 2008 at 10:57 am
This a hopeful sign that McCain may be able to swing PA or is at least be competitive in PA. Obama turns MN and WI into solid blue states taking them off the table unless Pawlenty is the Veep choice. Iowa may be slightly more competitive then MN and WI but really leans Obama at this point also.
I would guess Clinton would be trailing McCain in IA, WI, and MN. She is just not liked even by Democrats in the upper midwest. Inlaws are all union Democrats and despise Hillary. They supported Edwards in the caucus and seem hesitant but receptive to Obama.
February 22nd, 2008 at 11:29 am
Obama will pick casey as his veep - - Obama will win PA
February 22nd, 2008 at 11:31 am
Obama can’t pick Casey. Casey doesn’t have any experience either.
February 22nd, 2008 at 11:32 am
lol.. ok
February 22nd, 2008 at 11:32 am
And anyway Obama would be stupid to pick Casey. If he needs Casey to shore up Pennsylvania, a state that hasn’t voted Republican since 1998, then he’s already lost.
February 22nd, 2008 at 11:33 am
damnit - since 1988**
February 22nd, 2008 at 11:51 am
This is my third try at posting this — I hope they don’t all show up at once.
This is the Census Bureau’s breakdown of over-65 by state for the 2000 census:
http://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/c2kbr01-10.pdf
The state breakdown is on page 4 of the PDF.
As you said, AJ, PA is second after FL. All three of the prime swing states are higher than the national average, with OH just a bit over the average.
Two other swing states (IA and WV) are also high.
If seniors vote heavily for McCain as they have in the primaries (identity group politics?) it could have a meaningful effect in swing states.
February 22nd, 2008 at 12:00 pm
This election is going to be strange if Obama wins the nomination. Republicans could win Pennsylvania, but lose Colorado. If McCain wins Pennsylvania, there’s no way that Obama can win. Another state he might win is Michigan, but we haven’t seen any polls out of Michigan. If we win Pennsylvania or Michigan, we’ll for sure win Ohio as well. A win in Pennsylvania or Michigan for the Republicans will seal the win.
February 22nd, 2008 at 12:09 pm
EricB,
I suspect you’re right. If this election were taking place in 2012 I’d be worried about Virginia, as the state is trending blue - but McCain will hold it for at least one more cycle because of the military vote.
February 22nd, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Here’s what I don’t get about these polls. Every statewide poll I’ve seen of Pennsylvania and Ohio have McCain narrowly beating Obama, and every state poll of Florida has McCain beating Obama by a comfortable to landslide margin. And yet Obama wins all the national polls. Frankly, I don’t see how its possible for McCain to sweep the three key swing states in the last three election cycles and still lose the election, so I strongly suspect that either these Ohio/Penn statewide polls or the national polls are wrong.
February 22nd, 2008 at 3:11 pm
Obama’s “I’ll talk with our adversaries as well as our friends” plays well in Democratic circles but will cost him plenty of votes in south FL. Hopefully, Clinton will continue to make hay of this as it one of the few policy differences between them. McCain hit Obama pretty hard on this today also. This is at least one instance where Obama’s fairy tale feel good lets all hold hands and get along rhetoric is going to really cost him some votes in a key state.
February 22nd, 2008 at 3:15 pm
Statement By John McCain On Senator Obama’s Remarks On Cuba
ARLINGTON, VA — U.S. Senator John McCain today issued the following statement on Senator Obama’s remarks on Cuba during last night’s Democratic debate:
“Not so long ago Senator Obama favored complete normalization of relations with Fidel Castro’s Cuba. Last night, he said that as president he’d meet with the imprisoned island’s new leader ‘without preconditions.’ So Raul Castro gets an audience with an American president, and all the prestige such a meeting confers, without having to release political prisoners, allow free media, political parties, and labor unions, or schedule internationally monitored free elections.
“Instead, Senator Obama says he would meet Cuba’s dictator without any such steps in the hope that talk will make things better for Cuba’s oppressed people. Meet, talk, and hope may be a sound approach in a state legislature, but it is dangerously naive in international diplomacy where the oppressed look to America for hope and adversaries wish us ill.”
February 22nd, 2008 at 4:42 pm
[...] In comments on DaveG’s analysis of McCain leading Obama by a point in the Franklin &; Marshall Poll, long-time favorite commenter of mine Caroline writes: [...]
February 22nd, 2008 at 5:16 pm
[...] One of the many fine posters, among those at Race42008.com, is Sean Oxendine. His post on polling - On Error Margins - explains the margin-of-error concept in lay terms for those of us who enjoy the horse-race aspects of politics, and so it’s worthwhile to post it here: In comments on DaveG’s analysis of McCain leading Obama by a point in the Franklin & Marshall Poll, long-time favorite commenter of mine Caroline writes: [...]