GOP Nominee
Former Candidates
Could former Vice President Al Gore take advantage of a Democratic convention floor fight between two wounded candidates in order to steal the nod from Denver? According to John Derbyshire: YES HE CAN!
Some weeks before that I had told attendees at a private lecture the same thing. The organizers of that event had asked me to give a talk on the 2008 field of candidates, which was at that point very large. At the end of my talk, they said, I should offer my opinion as to who would actually be the next president. Preparing my talk, I mulled over the matter carefully. At the very end of the lecture, after 40 minutes of surveying the entire field, both parties, I said “Ladies and gentlemen, the next President of the United States,” pressed the key (it was a PowerPoint presentation), and up on the screen came Al Gore. There was a chorus of boos and jeers - it was a conservative crowd. Derb: “Look, this is not my guy. I’m anti-Gore, and have a paper trail to prove it (see here, here, and here). But as an analyst, it’s my job dispassioantely to weigh the probabilities. I weighed them. This is what they told me.”
It’s still what they tell me. And if this has occurred to me, it has sure as heck occurred to the Democratic-party bosses, and those who influence them. Eleanor Clift, for example: “Al Gore on the second ballot: A scenario that a few weeks ago seemed preposterous is beginning to look plausible to some nervous Democrats looking for a way out of the deadlock between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama …” Hey, it never looked preposterous to me, Eleanor … but then, I didn’t need to have several Hillary Clinton tattoos surgically removed before I could think straight.
“Plausible”? Try “inevitable.” It’s August in Denver. You have a convention hall full of party activists, nervous and weary from months of watching the party’s two candidates clawing and scratching at each other. Both those candidates are looking pretty tattered. Bill Clinton’s mistress has spilled the beans on O’Reilly, and Michelle Obama’s senior sociology thesis has come to light - the one where she let loose on the “ineradicable racism of white Americans” and called the U.S.A. “a nation founded in crime and hatred.” McCain is looking stronger than ever. The Turks are advancing on Kirkuk. Iran has lobbed a ballistic test missile far out over the Indian Ocean. The Chinese are mad as hell following the collapse of the summer Olympics the week before, as athletes refused to compete in gritty smog, and are making new threats against Taiwan. It’s a dangerous world out there, and community organizing and ed-biz wonkery are being marked down as presidential qualifications.
What to do? What to do? The party bosses are slumped in their seats, staring blankly into space, or doing job searches on their Blackberries. All is gloom and despondency.
Then … A fanfare of trumpets! A shaft of light! Into the hall rides a man on a white stallion! Stirred from their lethargy, the delegates begin rising from their seats. They start cheering and applauding. The rider reaches the podium, dismounts, and strides to the dais. The applause is deafening now. Cheers ring round the hall! Women are weeping; men are hugging each other.
Broad-shouldered and confident, his sternocleidomastoid muscle flexing and rippling, the Rescuer sweeps his powerful gaze around the hall. A hush falls. He begins to speak. As he speaks, the same though settles on every listener simultaneously: This is the one. He has always been the one. What fools we have been!
Don’t think it couldn’t happen. Don’t, in fact, think it isn’t going to happen. The Democratic party has two lame candidates, without a dime’s worth of executive experience between them. Competing on the campaign trail, by August each will have thoroughly alienated the other’s supporters, and turned off the voting public. Meanwhile, in the wings, there is this guy who was vice president for eight years, who ran a campaign for the presidency and actually won it! (well, according to party lore). He looks presidential, with a fine strapping physique and a big square jaw. You’re hankering after moral authority? How about a Nobel Peace Prize, for crying out loud!!
But … does he want it? Does Al Gore want to be the president of the United States?
Are you kidding me?
A fun scenario, though not a particularly plausible one. As of now, I would suspect that Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee unless a deus ex machina halts his momentum. Obama will probably win Texas on March 4th and will only lose Ohio narrowly, while continuing to cut into Clinton’s superdelegate lead given that the senator from Illinois is starting to feel like a winner while Hillary seems desperate. Hillary’s campaign is starting to feel very much like that of another New Yorker who ran for president this year, Rudy Giuliani. Like Rudy, Hillary continues to postpone Judgment Day, assuring us that her comeback is always just around the next corner. But with every Rudy loss, his support began to evaporate in subsequent contests, as well as nationally, and that is exactly what is happening to Hillary right now. Whether she even manages to pull out a win in Pennsylvania in April is now suspect despite the fact that the demographics are all wrong for Barack Obama in the Keystone State, and the New York senator is currently being trounced by John McCain from coast to coast in general election matchups. Ironically, the race for 2008, which once appeared to be headed towards all New York, all the time status, may soon exist free of any Empire State candidates.
But Derb is correct that Gore may still have a political future, especially if Obama loses in the fall to John McCain. With Hillary relegated to Liberal Lioness status in the Senate, a la Ted Kennedy, and with Edwards completely discredited as a serious presidential contender, the race for 2012 on the Democratic side will feature the tired old retreads that Democratic voters continue to reject in election after election. As such, 2012 would offer a perfect opportunity for Gore to pull a Nixon and best Joe Biden and Chris Dodd for the nomination, especially if President McCain is less popular than anticipated or decides to serve only one term.
February 24th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
Lost you on that last conclusion Dave. What makes you think that there wouldn’t be a new crop of candidates in 2012 if Obama loses?
Like Mark Warner, for instance. Or Bill Ritter? Or Evan Bayh? Or Ted Strickland?
February 24th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
I think Hillary scared off a lot of the younger talent in the Dem party from running this year. Many of these people will look at 2012 seriously should the Dems lose this November, particularly women governors like Washington’s Christine Gregoire, Arizona’s term-limited Janet Napolitano, and Kansas’s term-limited Kathleen Sebelius, but also others like Maryland’s Gov. O’Malley, Montana’s Gov. Schweitzer, and Oklahoma’s Gov. Brad Henry, all relatively young and quite popular governors of their states. Hillary and Obama, to their credit and the credit of their party, kind of broke the ceiling for woman and minorities to run, in that in 2012 it won’t be much of an issue to see a minority on a ticket from either party, so I expect a lot of women and minority candidates in four years.
February 24th, 2008 at 8:09 pm
Washington’s Governor may not win election this year.
Janet Napolitano would be a gutsy move. It would be a great political risk with her reputation as a lesbian.
O’Malley is as popular as syphilis in Maryland after raising taxes on the poor and cutting funding for schools. I expect like Governor Blunt you don’t come back after that type of mistake.
February 24th, 2008 at 8:39 pm
Gregoire’s popularity is still respectable for a 4th year gov in a somewhat purple state (in the mid 50%’s), and the Republicans can’t seem to do much in that state to get on top of things, so I suspect she may pull out another win. In Maryland, I don’t hear much news from there since I left southern Pennsylvania last year so I wasn’t aware of that tax increase he pushed through. That could be a problem for him but he’s got time to rehabilitate himself in the state. But you’re right, it probably ended any presidential hopes for 2012. I didn’t know about the lesbian thing with Napolitano so I can’t speak to that issue.
I still think Sebelius is the next star of the party - popular young female governor with cross-over appeal from a bread-basket state, with personal ties to Ohio and Michigan. Conservative tax and spend record. Term-limited in 2010. Perfect running mate for Obama this year, and great candidate in her own right in 2012.
My point above stands that there’s a lot of talent in the Dem party that would prevent the need to bring back Al Gore. And I was just looking at Governors. I think Hillary’s performance so far in this election will convince a lot of voters that as much as they love Bill Clinton, it’s time to move on. That includes Gore. I don’t see him ever returning to presidential politics.
February 24th, 2008 at 10:56 pm
More good stuff from DaveG. My two cents-
I agree with him that this is “a fun scenario”, but I’ll go as far as to say it is ridiculous to speculate that Gore will be the nominee THIS year (unless some unimaginable event intervenes between now and August). The Dem candidate will be one of the current two. The delegates at the convention are going to be split between them, but by definition - an acceptable compromise on the nomination would involve pleasing Obama and/or HRC with the nomination. About the only thing that would NOT be acceptable to both sides, is one where NEITHER gets the nomination, whether it was Gore or anyone else.
Gore would still love to be president someday, and if the Dems lose this cycle, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him give it another try. But it’s too late for this cycle…
February 24th, 2008 at 11:59 pm
I agree with #1. The Democrats have a lot of rising young stars that’ll keep their Presidential primaries full for the next few elections. We’ve got a few too (Jindal and Palin only the most obvious) lest anyone despair.
February 25th, 2008 at 2:16 am
Sibelius is damaged goods. What with the lying and backpedaling about National Guard capabilities and trying to peg the meager tornado disaster relief on the Iraq War. She’ll be an easy target.
February 25th, 2008 at 3:55 am
[...] zompist wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptEleanor Clift, for example: “Al Gore on the second ballot: A scenario that a few weeks ago seemed preposterous is beginning to look plausible to some nervous Democrats looking for a way out of the deadlock between Hillary Clinton and … Read the rest of this great post here Posted by [...]
February 25th, 2008 at 4:32 am
We’ve got a few too (Jindal and Palin only the most obvious) lest anyone despair.
Those two are only “rising stars” among internet pseudopundits who are overly fixated on a strange brew of identity politics and hardline conservatism. Michael Steele is another example of this. Let these people actually accomplish something of note before you go branding them “rising stars.” Getting elected (or in Steele’s case, losing a statewide election) is not enough of an accomplishment to qualify them for that designation.
February 25th, 2008 at 5:40 am
Jindal is attractive in many ways, but isn’t he some really far-out wacko in terms of social conservatism?
I mean, not relative to some of you guys, but as a serious national candidate?
Sincere question - I don’t know, but have heard vague things about him…
February 25th, 2008 at 6:09 am
Tano,
Jindal supports an abortion ban with no exceptions. I think he also supports teaching creationism in public schools. Those are the big two that get the right wing of the Republican party all hot and bothered, but would pretty much doom him to defeat in a national election.
February 25th, 2008 at 8:35 am
Big S,
Jindal supports a full-abortion ban, but he also defines abortion somewhat differently then is common. As far as I can tell, only surgical procedures are abortion in his playbook. I.e, morning after pills are fine; even RU-486, which just about every other person who labels themselves opposes, sneaks in as acceptable. Admittedly, that still leaves an awful lot of abortions that he opposes absolutely and all in all, it’s not an ideal position for a national figure, but I suspect that part of the absolutest quality of it stemmed from political expediency; he was running against Kathleen Blanco, a very pro-life Democrat, and he had to find some way to get to the right of her on the issue. If the press will let him get away with him, I imagine he’ll shift at least to the Huckabee position (life of the mother exception, but nothing else), which didn’t seem to doom his candidacy (suggestions that he was a general religious fanatic accomplished that feat).
February 25th, 2008 at 9:04 am
DaveG, I think Derb this time has jumped the shark, proving once again that someone who is highly intelligent can also think himself into improbable inanity. It’s quite clear by now that Al Gore has no interest in subjecting himself to international ridicule by running for the presidency again. There’s no way. Gore’s ego would never let him do that to himself once more.
Gore now has a vaunted status amongst the global leftist elite as a serious genius and iconic sage. For the first time in years he comes across as sincere and human when in the limelight, entirely comfortable to inhabit his own skin. Why would he want to give up this current status for the outright humiliation and deep pay cut of running for national office? Gore could do nothing but ruin his own political clout and relevance by subjecting himself to another national campaign.
Back to the drawing board, Derb. Your political prognostications are becoming embarrassing to behold.
February 25th, 2008 at 9:37 am
If the press will let him get away with him, I imagine he’ll shift at least to the Huckabee position (life of the mother exception, but nothing else), which didn’t seem to doom his candidacy (suggestions that he was a general religious fanatic accomplished that feat).
As far as I know, Huckabee never ran in a nationwide general election. The Huckabee position on abortion, if it is as you describe it, would doom his candidacy if he were to get the nomination.
February 25th, 2008 at 9:53 am
Jindal is attractive in many ways, but isn’t he some really far-out wacko in terms of social conservatism?
Yes.
But at least he’s honest.
That said, I almost surely wouldn’t support him.
February 25th, 2008 at 10:37 am
I was thinking about Gore this weekend as rehashing his role as VP for Obama, but I was thinking that Obama would sweeten the deal by also making Gore Secretary of Energy. It would give Gore real power over the issue he cares most about. It would also energize all those dems in Florida who either voted Nader in 2000 or screwed up their ballots. The problem would be that Gore would be the real heavyweight on that ticket.
I watched a lot of the NGA meetings this weekend and I am impressed with a lot of our govs of both parties. No wonder we normally elect govs as president. I also have the impression that there are some GOP govs that are moderate enough for Obama to consider.
February 25th, 2008 at 10:45 am
I watched a lot of the NGA meetings this weekend and I am impressed with a lot of our govs of both parties. No wonder we normally elect govs as president. I also have the impression that there are some GOP govs that are moderate enough for Obama to consider.
Obama is not an f’ing uniter.
He is not a bipartisan agent of togetherness.
He will not — and I mean never — pick a moderate Republican..!
Stop swallowing Obama’s BS.
That goes double for you, Matthew E. Miller.
February 25th, 2008 at 10:48 am
I don’t see how any Republican Governor is liberal enough to feel comfortable with Obama. He’s so far to the left of Hillary and no Republican Governors would team up with her.
Any team up would be based on style. That’s a danger for the Obama campaign’s avoidance of Obama’s extreme liberal positions on the issues.
It’s not without meaning that Obama garners the most liberal voters as they see him as the Trojan Horse for extreme liberal policies.
Ralph Nader’s running is particularly questionable given his close agreement with Obama on almost every issue.
February 25th, 2008 at 11:03 am
Ralph Nader is a Fame Wh*re. He dosen’t car about anything but himself. For all of his ranting he has done absolutely nothing since he last ran for President. Nothing.
February 25th, 2008 at 11:16 am
Jindal is attractive in many ways, but isn’t he some really far-out wacko in terms of social conservatism?
The thing about Jindal is that he’s a young guy who had a very complicated personal religious evolution when he came to this country, embracing Christianity and probably going a bit overboard in his youth, touting Creationism and writing an article about observing — oh, how shall I put this? — a non-material intelligence behaving badly. He also wrote a piece that claims Catholicism is the only true version of Christianity.
But Jindal’s a smart guy, and being smart, I think he knows how to separate his personal beliefs from his political platform. Sure, if he runs on establishing the RCC as the state religion, teaching Creationism in all public schools, and creating a Department of Exorcism, then he’d be finished before he ever got started. But like I said, Jindal’s smart, and smart guys don’t propose such things if they want to win high office.
February 25th, 2008 at 11:21 am
TLG,
I’ve heard no one on the right suggest that Obama is a uniter; certainly I’ve never suggested this. But, again, it benefits him to be seen as a uniter. Already his house of cards image is collapsing, because he has nothing to support it. If he continues to play within the traditional liberal playbook, and just throws about airy uniting rhetoric, without any sort of “Sister Souljah” moment, his record will doom him a general election. Obama is savvy enough to recognize this and undoubtedly he’s considering possible “Sister Souljah” acts. Picking a Republican who’s not really a Republican as his running mate, is one of those possibilities. Huckabee may not fit the profile, given that the “Huckabee’s not really a Republican” label hasn’t seem to have stuck with the general public, despite Huck’s best efforts, but there are certainly other options. Michael Bloomberg is an obvious one, because he genuinely wasn’t a Republican (having registered as one weeks before his first campaign) and is no longer one. Also, he’s a secular Jew, and given that religiosity seems to be equated with the conservatism these days (thus the continued perception that Huck’s a conservative) Bloomie fits the personal profile of a “Republican that’s not really a Republican”. There are other options, though I disagree that any of them are GOP Governors. Jodi Rell is about the most liberal GOP Governor (other then Arnie) and she’s probably too conservative for Obama to consider. But, Lincoln Chafee types in Congress might make some sense in the role.
February 25th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Nader in a sense benefits Obama because its hard to say Obama is too far left when Nader is saying he’s not. If the saying “it takes one to know one” is right, liberal Nader says he does not recognize Obama as a liberal. Don’t think Obama won’t use Nader as a foil against GOP attacks.
There are plenty of republicans who could easily join an Obama ticket. That candidate would have to be pro-choice, which limits the field. But Obama could also benefit from merely publicly offering the VP slot to a republican who turns it down. The person extending the hand is always the victor even if the hand is rejected.
February 26th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
The name of Al Gore will come during every close contest for the Democratic nomination for years to come, even after he is obviously too old or too ill to be the nominee.
There is a historical precedent:
Samuel J. Tilden, though never a declared candidate after the disputed 1876 election, was always in the wings — at the Democratic conventions of 1880, 1884, and (I think) 1892.
The analogy is obvious.
February 29th, 2008 at 7:31 pm
[...] the risk of an ugly convention and the fact that the superdelegates may decide the contest lead Al Gore to step up as a candidate for President at the convention and then choose Barack Obama as his runningmate? [...]