The Candidates
According to the AP:
Republican Party members in Puerto Rico awarded all 20 delegates at stake Sunday to Arizona Sen. John McCain, who has vowed to help resolve Washington’s complicated relationship with the U.S. Caribbean territory.
The at-large delegates each will cast one vote at the Republican National Convention this summer. Three “superdelegates,” who are not bound by Sunday’s results, also have pledged to back McCain, the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination.
The delegates from Puerto Rico helped McCain move closer to clinching the GOP nomination, giving him a total of 996 delegates. His rival, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee trails McCain with 254 delegates.
It will take 1,191 delegates to secure the Republican nomination.
On Saturday, McCain picked up all nine delegates awarded by the GOP in American Samoa, as well as the nine GOP delegates from the U.S. Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands.
In a letter to Luis Fortuno, Puerto Rico’s nonvoting congressional delegate and a superdelegate, McCain pledged to support a process that would enable Puerto Ricans to decide if they want to remain a commonwealth, become a state or an independent nation.
“The people of Puerto Rico deserve a process of self-determination and a congressionally defined referendum that gives them a fair and unambiguous choice among status options,” McCain wrote. “That is one of the many important things that we will accomplish together.
February 24th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
McCain now needs about 125 delegates can he get those on March 4th?
February 24th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
2, I think its 195 he needs.
February 24th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
McCain needs to win 195 of the 256 pledged delegates up for grabs on March 4 to clinch the nomination in the AP count.
If he falls 9 or fewer delegates short, he should clinch the nomination on March 8, when Guam votes. Otherwise, Mississippi might put him over the top on March 11.
February 24th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
3, Yeah he has to win about 73% of the delegates on March 4th. He’s winning by about 50 and 60% in the states that have polls, but I think they may give by CDs show he might be able to sweep all them or at least the 73% needed.
February 24th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
Here’s how the March 4 landscape shapes up. (I’m only listing PLEGDED delegates, not unpledged superdelegates. I double checked The Green Papers. Because Vermont’s superdelegates are pledged to the winner, McCain needs to win 195 of the 259 pledged March 4 delegates to clinch that day - 75.3%):
-Vermont (20) - all to the winner statewide.
Last Poll: ARG has McCain up 73%-11% over Ron Paul.
-Rhode Island (17) - proportionately to those receiving more than 15% of the vote in each Congressional District.
Last Poll: ARG has McCain up 65%-18% over Huckabee.
-Ohio (85) - 31 to the statewide winner; 54 to the CD winner, 3 in each of Ohio’s 18 CDs.
Recent Polls: Rasmussen has McCain up by 27; SUSA has McCain up by 32. SUSA’s crosstabs show McCain leading big in all areas of the state except Dayton.
-Texas (137) - 41 to the statewide winner IF he receives a majority of the vote, otherwise proportionate with a 20% threshold; 96 by CD, 3 each to the winner IF he receives a majority of the vote, otherwise usually 2 to the winner, 1 to the second place finisher.
Recent Polls: RCP has McCain up by 12 points, at 48.8%.
February 24th, 2008 at 3:37 pm
#2 #3 Does the McCain delegate count include the 38 delegate in the last three days? I assume yes.
February 24th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
#6 - yes - but it doesn’t appear to include Puerto Rico’s 3 superdelegates, who are also for McCain. The AP included the American Samoa and CNMI superdelegates in their count.
February 24th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
Cinyc #5: Thanks for the summary. Assuming he takes VT (seems to be safe), and that he loses no more than a couple delegates in RI (probably generous to Huckabee), and that he loses only a couple CDs in OH (again being generous), that gives him 20+15+79 = 114.
If he takes 20 of the 41 statewide in TX, plus half the CD delegates, for a total of 68 (he should do much better, but this is a conservative estimate), that gives him 182, or 13 shy of clinching.
My bet would be that he clinches in TX, but he may be a few short.
February 24th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
Have any of Romney’s delegates pledged themselves to McCain yet? If just 70 of them pledge themselves to McCain than he can win without winning the majority of TX’s delegates
February 24th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
Huckabee will drop out after March 4th. TX is his last stand.
February 24th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
BobH - the way the math works out in any reasonable scenario for Vermont, Rhode Island and Ohio given current polling, McCain will need to take about 60% of Texas’ delegates to clinch a majority in the AP delegate count on March 4. If McCain wins the state with a majority, that’s pretty much certain to happen. If McCain doesn’t, as long as he wins the state, there’s a good chance that he still goes over 1,191 in the AP delegate count that day.
If Texas doesn’t put McCain over the top in the AP tally, it’s extremely likely America’s day will begin with McCain as the presumptive Republican nominee when Guam caucuses on March 8 (which might be late on March 7 for most of the rest of us due to the time difference), assuming Huckabee doesn’t have an upset win in Texas.
February 24th, 2008 at 5:20 pm
“McCain will need to take about 60% of Texas’ delegates to clinch a majority”
Right. And he should easily do it. My math was based on quite conservative estimates, which would require Huckabee to considerably out-perform the polls.
If the current RCP average works out, McCain should take about 24 or so delegates statewide, and probably about 2/3 (64) of the CD delegates, bringing him to 88 in Texas and 202 for the day (plus, as you note, Guam).
February 24th, 2008 at 8:04 pm
Wow whoever expected Guam to be the one to put a candidate over the top???
February 24th, 2008 at 11:07 pm
#11 cinyc-
Great analysis - thanks for digging through The Green Papers and doing all that research to resolve that question. I had been wondering about it myself - I speculated that there probably wouldn’t be enough delegates in play on March 4 to make it over the line, but under your analysis, that seems plausible…
Also, very impressed by your note about Guam - as Michael Barone once put it - “Guam - as American political convention viewers have been told for decades - is Where America’s Day Begins..”
February 25th, 2008 at 5:57 pm
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