The Candidates
Zogby has him up six. Last time Zogby projected a big Obama win, Hillary won by ten.
Actually, the California example is the one example that should worry Obama the most. Obama rode into Super Tuesday on a wave of momentum post-California, and had actually taken the lead in the RCP average in California. But pollsters missed a huge Hispanic turnout that broke heavily for Clinton.
I actually think that there is less for Obama to worry about here than may appear on the surface — after all, he appears to have made inroads among Hispanics since California, and overall has tightened up the nomination race. But if there is to be a single nagging doubt that Clinton may still carry the day, it has to be that the polling companies aren’t polling in Spanish, and in a relatively close Democratic primary, that could make a big difference.
February 29th, 2008 at 10:00 am
I don’t get why in New Hampshire, California, and Massachusetts, Clinton did much better in the actual primary than she was doing in polls leading up to it, but then in Wisconsin, the polls were relatively close, and Obama won by a whopping 17 points. I don’t know why most states have oversampled Obama voters, but Wisconsin oversampled Clinton voters. I’m not sure what Texas will more closely resemble, but I think most of us would like Clinton to win just to keep this thing going longer. I’d love to have McCain have no serious opposition while Clinton and Obama fight over Pennsylvania for six weeks.
February 29th, 2008 at 10:03 am
I agree that current polling probably understates Clinton’s hispanic support and a large hispanic turnout favors her. Here are two reasons it may not make the difference it did in California. The allocation of delegates is based on previous turnout and hispanic turnout was low in the last election. Therefore the areas where Obama is doing well will award more delegates (offsetting Clinton’s hispanic advantage). Remember that there is also a caucus in TX and that too favors Obama.
The real bad news this morning is that a new poll has him up two points in OH despite having the popular governor in her corner. I think this baby is over on Tuesday.
February 29th, 2008 at 10:05 am
Clinton-will-pull-it-off (Texas and Ohio)
February 29th, 2008 at 10:13 am
To be sure, some polling companies (zogby and ARG) are not as good as others, but to be fair, it is more difficult to poll a primary than a general election.
February 29th, 2008 at 10:26 am
Ohio Joe — That is exactly correct.
February 29th, 2008 at 10:46 am
[...] Sean Oxendine: Zogby has him up six. Last time Zogby projected a big Obama win, Hillary won by ten. Share and [...]
February 29th, 2008 at 11:34 am
I hope Hillary stays in and weakens Obama.
We don’t need higher taxes when the economy is so fragile. If Obama’s elected I’d not be surprised to see massive stagflation by 2012.
February 29th, 2008 at 12:08 pm
“Zogby needs to move to Sweden.” - Michael Savage after Bush won in 2004.
Seriously, I cannot believe that he is given any weight to his polls. And the fact that Roto-Reuters teams up with him just makes it worse.
“I hope Hillary stays in and weakens Obama.”
I’m starting to think this myself. The longer this goes on, the more specific they both have to get and the more ammo Republicans and conservatives will have to fire against him or her. The animosity between the two camps and division within the party are minor compared to them trying to “out-liberal” each other as they realize whoever promises to give away more will win.
Look how much has changed since Oprahma’s Wisconsin speech and the subsequent Op-Eds by Karl Rove and others analysing his policies. Then McCain jumped all over the Al-Qaeda in Iraq comments. The more the Dems talk to their base, the more Republicans have to attack them and appeal to Independents.
February 29th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
And that is precisely why after Tuesday the race will be over. Its not just about the presidency, but all the down ballot races. Clinton will lose so much support after the results that she will look foolish and selfish to continue.
The irony will be that Huckabee will still be out there.
March 2nd, 2008 at 7:26 pm
Which is all the more reason McCain needs to pick an Hispanic running mate. There’s two excellent choices:
Senator Mel Martinez of Florida
California Assemblywoman Bonnie Garcia
An attractive Hispanic Republican female would be a homerun, that’s why I’m hoping it’s Garcia. But Martinez would solidify Florida for us.
Article on the two prospective VPs with their backgrounds up at http://www.libertarianrepublican.blogspot.com
March 2nd, 2008 at 7:29 pm
Y por eso todos de los republicanos necistan aprender espanol. No hay muchos Democrats que se pueden hablarlo. Entonces, tendremos un gran avantaje con eso.
Pienso que es mas importante que McCain escoje un Hispano tambien. Snr. Martinez de Florida sera lo mejor. Pero a mi me gusta Snra. Garcia de California tambien.
Ustedes, por favor, hablen con sus amigos republicanos para decirlos que Martinez y Garcia son los mejores, y no son aburridos como Pawlenty o aun Ridge.