March 6, 2008
SurveyUSA Electoral Maps
Let the games begin! SUSA has just completed general election polling in all 50 states and put up their first complete look at the electoral dynamics in a hypothetical McCain vs. Obama and McCain vs. Clinton matchup. An important note: This is a baseline survey. SurveyUSA polled 600 registered voters in each state (30,000 altogether). Since it’s just registered voters, they didn’t apply their highly accurate likely voter model in each individual state. They also didn’t factor in any margin of error. There are some screwy results, but it’s fascinating overall. McCain runs significantly stronger in the Northwest (winning Oregon and Washington) but weaker in the Rust Belt (losing Ohio, PA and WV to Clinton) . Against Obama, McCain is much weaker in the Northwest and Central Plains, but stronger in the Rust Belt. Take a look:
For you number-crunchers out there, SUSA has the complete breakdown of each state for the McCain-Obama race here and the McCain-Clinton race here.
http://race42008.com/2008/03/06/surveyusa-electoral-maps/trackback/
March 6th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
So either way McCain is still the Sentor from AZ not the POTUS.
March 6th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
There is no way Obama is taking Neb or North Dakato. And I doubt very much he will take VA at the end of the day.
March 6th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
grandma,
Tsk tsk. As I said, this is a baseline survey that has taken place without an actual general election campaign. But I’m actually really encouraged by this. It means that McCain would only need to flip one or two of these states against either Hillary or Obama to win the election. In a year when the GOP should be down by 50-100 EVs, we are only down by a handful. Imagine what this map will look like in April.
March 6th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
There ain’t a chance in hell that either Democrat will win Florida this time around. All these news stories about the dems disenfranchising Floridians are having an effect. Florida is red this time.
March 6th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
Well if Hillary was to pull of the nom just put Crist on the ticket and end the election.
March 6th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
Some of this is hard to take seriously. Obama running only 1 point behind McCain in Texas, and 6 points ahead of Hillary? The Texas that’s filled with Hispanics? The Texas he just lost after 13 straight primary victories? That Texas? Ok…
March 6th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
LJ (#3), do you know what you are saying? If no one get more than 270 electors, the House of Representatives then will vote. They could vote for anyone, including Speaker Pelois! They are more likely to go with Obama or Hillary than they will for McCain.
March 6th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
Matthew, there have been quite a few reports that a lot of Republicans voted for Hillary in last week’s Texas Primary. So if that is true, then yes, Obama lost Texas only because of those Republicans.
March 6th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
Jonathan (#4) Florida will have state marriage amendment on their ballot this year, so it’s definitely a red state this year!
March 6th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
#4
Florida will not be democratic, if Obama is the nominee. I definitely think Hillary could win it though. There are plenty of White old ladies there.
They aren’t disenfranchised if Hillary gets the nominee. They voted for Hillary. It was the Republicans that caused the problem in Florida anyways. They may be able to play the victim card.
March 6th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
There is a lot of blue out west on here that doesn’t need to be blue. There is an extremely easy answer, and we get the most qualified guy ready for 2012. He’ll win Michigan and Ohio for us too.
The only question is, are we smart enough to put Mitt on the ticket? Probably not!
March 6th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
LJ #3 The earlier post on Bloomberg being considered for VP REALLY disappointed me. If McCain doesn’t put a conservative with economic qualifications on the ticket, I will sit this one out. McCain is a big enough problem for me as it is. I will take my chances on 2012 and hope no one dies or retires on the supreme court.
March 6th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
#7: “They could vote for anyone, including Speaker Pelois!”
Assuming there are only two candidates who get electoral votes, the only way it could go to the House is if they tie 269-269*.
In any case, the House cannot chose “anybody” — they have to select from the top three finishers in the electoral college. You could create a scenario in which one elector casts a vote for Pelosi so that she’s third but I would say any such thing is unlikely in the extreme.
* As an aside — before the constitution was amended to give DC three votes, there were 535 electoral votes, so a tie was impossible in a two-way race. I wish they would add one seat to the House in the next redistricting. I believe (someone can correct me on this) that congress sets the number of seats by statute.
March 6th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
grandma T,
In the end you will have to vote for McCain, not his VP. But i assure you McCain will pick a good econocic person to be on the ticket with him. But you will have a choice, Low Taxes Vs. High Taxes, and Cutting Taxes Vs. Raising Taxes for Universal Healthcare. The choice could not be clearer IMO.
March 6th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
Thank you so much for putting this up. It is very interesting.
March 6th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
The south shall rise again!
March 6th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
BobH - Congress does set its own number of seats. It was originally intended to have one representative for every 30,000 citizens…. but if they kept that tradition we would have a 10,000 member legislature and it would have to meet in the Redskins’ stadium.
March 6th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
Is this showing Nebraska split with an Obama candidacy?
March 6th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
Maybe I’ll have to do some campaigning here.
March 6th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
I think both Nebraska and North Dakota are at the extreme end of the margin of error. Other than that the map makes sense.
March 6th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
Here is the thing to ask yourself on these two maps: which one do you feel best represents what the map will actually look like the day after the election?
If you say the Obama map, you’re nuts!
The Hillary map can happen folks… That’s why she is the more dangerous opponent.
March 6th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Zach: Thanks — that was my understanding. They expanded the House frequently in the first hundred years or so, but it has been stuck at 435 for a long time now.
There are good arguments for a sizable expansion (though not to 10,000), but I’m just proposing one seat as a tie-breaker — for now.
March 6th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
I can’t help but notice that NH, Nev, and Col are blue in Obama is the nominee, but Red if Clinton is. This leads me to suspect that they aren’t blue by much and might even flip if the poll was screening for likely voters.
Nevertheless, it does point out something I’ve increasingly come to believe — if Obama is the nominee (and he probably will be in spite of his Tuesday setback) Romney is the most logical VP choice. A VP won’t have much of an impact, but 1-2% swing might mean the difference of 18 electoral votes.
March 6th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
#11 Illinois guy,
If McCain adds Mitt to the ticket I personally will donate $$ to the campaign and volunteer to work the phones. Any other selection and he only gets my vote. I think the drive by media (Rush, Hannity) would embrace the ticket. By putting Mitt on the ticket Mccain gets an ecomonic genius and pulls the conservative part of the base together, no other candidate will be able to bring so much to the ticket (in my opinion).
March 6th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
#23 Sean,
“Romney is the most logical VP choice. A VP won’t have much of an impact, but 1-2% swing might mean the difference of 18 electoral votes.”
McCain will lose without the support of the conservative part of the Republican party, he must work hard to convince them to get out and vote for him, Chosing Romney as his running mate will accomplish that over night not to mention everything else Mitt brings to the ticket, it would be the perfect choice.
March 6th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
McCain/Romney - perfect ticket. Romney wins either way. And we need his economic genius and experience.
March 6th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
These maps are way too early and really don’t make any sense
Against Obama he wins PA and NJ but loses OH, which just decisively rejected Obama by 10%, and that’s only among democrats? Come on. Hillary cleaned in his clock in SE Ohio and McCain would do likewise. And Hillary didn’t even go after him on guns or abortion or any other issues that will play well there. It also has him winning Missouri which has gone with the winner in every single election. I feel confident that if McCain wins PA, NJ, FL and MO, he wins the elction.
Against Clinton it looks a bit more realistic but it has her winning all 3 of FL, OH and PA which I don’t see. FL going for the woman who sent Elian Gonzales back to captivity in a communist prison? It’s a lot closer but I think he can pull it out in OH as well. And this doesn’t take into account that if it is her it means that she will have used the SuperDelegates to win after going totally negative on Obama and a lot of his supporters will desert her. The independents will flock to the Maverick, the black vote will be depressed or actually show an uptick for McCain, the youth vote will be depressed, and McCain will win.
March 6th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
Given the date, these maps give me much hope.
March 6th, 2008 at 6:25 pm
Romney brings nothing to the table. At least Huckabee would make Arkansas red in the map above.
March 6th, 2008 at 6:28 pm
Huckabee makes nearly everybody puke ……., except a few of you.
March 6th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Wiseguy, for you to say that Romney brings nothing to the table is absolute idiocy. And you claim to be a wiseguy!! Obviously that must mean ’smart aleck’, and not ‘wise guy’. I’m not going to baby sit you to explain all the reasons why, but Romney brings a huge amount of votes to the table and brings in several blue states on that map above.
March 6th, 2008 at 6:48 pm
Romney’s not going to be VP so it’s a moot point.
At this point I think Pawlenty is the prohibitive favorite for VP.
March 6th, 2008 at 6:52 pm
#8 SGS,
I heard someone talking today about the fact that 9% republicans voted for dems, but that it actually broke for Obama.
March 6th, 2008 at 6:53 pm
#29 Wiseguy,
To be fair, we understand that you really believe in Huckabee and feel that he would bring something helpful to the ticket, but to deny that other former candidates would bring nothing takes away your credibility.
March 6th, 2008 at 6:55 pm
#34
“to deny that other former candidates would bring something”…..
March 6th, 2008 at 7:07 pm
So if FL and MI take a mulligan, can GOP voters join in the fun and swing this thing one way or the other?
March 6th, 2008 at 7:09 pm
Huckabee would not win AR if Hillary is the DEM nominee.
March 6th, 2008 at 7:12 pm
#36, I’m pretty sure Florida was closed, but Michegan was an open primary, so they would have to keep it open if they follow tradition. The question is whether Republicans want to support Mr. “I’m running so the privileged spoiled children of this country be tempted to lie and say they’re from Canada while studying abroad” or Ms. “I’m running because I’m a better candidate for that 3 am phone call than Obama even though I’m not as good a choice as the person I want to run against in November.” Its an embarassment of riches, really.
March 6th, 2008 at 7:18 pm
Romney could bring Nevada, Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota - and he balances out McCain’s age, lack of executive experience, and lack of knowledge on the economy. He has already been vetted, he has already recieved the support of top conservatives in the media, and he is someone who can be the heir apparent in four years if McCain (likely) doesn’t serve two terms. Romney also has a significant base of support that would be more likely to campaign for and/or donate to McCain is Romney is also on the ticket.
Pawlenty is the one who doesn’t bring anything to the table. He is unknown to the regular public, has little (if any) experience on the economy, is untested in a national campaign, and brings, at most, one state - and one of the polls that got put on this website showed that he probably wouldn’t even do that.
March 6th, 2008 at 7:18 pm
And re #29: Huckabee would kill the party in the west. Yeah, he might help in Arkansas (although not enough to win it) but he would jeopradize the Republican hold in Utah, Wyoming, and Montana, and pretty much guarantee Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado turn blue.
As for Romney, he doesn’t bring anything to the ticket electorally if Hillary is the nominee, but he does if the Dems pick Obama. Obama is stronger in the Rocky Mountain states than Hillary, so Romney’s pull will help (with Hillary, McCain can win Nevada and Colorado on his own just fine). He might also help NH, where Obama is stronger than Hillary.
Plus, with Obama as the nominee, there is no way the Dems will try to make issue of Romney’s religion. Hillary will. She has no problem playing the race card in a primary where 10-50% of the party vote is black; she won’t hesitate to use a religion only practices by 2% of the population.
March 6th, 2008 at 7:24 pm
Good points act, some by you also Sean.
March 6th, 2008 at 7:24 pm
With either one, Romney brings his executive experience, and knowledge of the economy - something that Pawlenty simply doesn’t have.
Either Democrat is going to be running on a heavy-on-economics platform. McCain has no more experience than either of them on that issue, and it is going to be a key topic. We need a VP who can say “I worked in the economy, I know why things happen in the economy, I know what the economy needs to continue to thrive” - that is Romney, not Pawlenty, not Crist, not Powell, not Sanford, Romney.
March 6th, 2008 at 7:29 pm
By the way wiseguy, sorry for the name calling. Like most others on here, I get frustrated sometimes. I don’t care for your candidate, but I think you probably sincerely do believe he was a good candidate, and I need to certainly give you the elbow room to voice your opinion. Just got me a little mad when you claimed Mitt brought nothing to the table when nothing could be further from the truth.
March 6th, 2008 at 7:33 pm
While some states are probably a bit off (Michigan, Nebraska, etc), the general trends comport with what we’ve seen for weeks. McCain does better against Obama in the Rust Belt, and does better against Hillary in the West. In fact, my big prediction that Mac wins Pennsylvania only applies to an Obama race. Hillary will take Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, and have a real good shot at Ohio too. Hillary is the candidate of the Humphrey/Muskie New Deal wing of the party. Obama is the McGovern/Dukakis candidate. Hillary wins the union crowd. Obama wins the liberal-tarians out west.
March 6th, 2008 at 7:35 pm
Bleh..
It’s simple. Put every viable VP candidate on a list and do sample polling in all the states. Then re-rank them on who gives McCain the best electoral advantage and McCain should choose one from the top five from that list.
I don’t care if Romney, Pawlenty, Crist, or Palin is chosen, but I am guessing that most them would be in that list.
March 6th, 2008 at 7:40 pm
I’m surprised none of the polling groups have done that…
March 6th, 2008 at 7:43 pm
“Romney could bring Nevada, Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota”
Can you provide past examples of VP candidates being responsible for similar feats?
March 6th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
Sean P,
Obama is stronger than Hillary in NH?
Is that she beat him there?
If Obama was stronger than her in NH, he would have wrapped this up long ago.
As for Hillary winning MI and FL, depending on what happens with those two, the GOP could win both of them quite easily.
Regardless, this poll is great news. After 8 years of W, all the hatred and vitriol of the dems and the media, a hugely unpopular in Iraq, a bad economy, a congressional shellacking in 2006, 2 historic candidates that have been all over the news for months and have outraised him by 3 or 4 to 1, an with a base that supposedly hates him, aftre all that and more…
John McCain starts out with an average of 260 electoral votes and the GOP always improves as the race goes on
And this is before another 3 months+ of the democrats tearing each other apart(cf the Obama is Ken Starr quote from Team Clinton) It will only get worse.
For perspective in 96 Dole got 170 EV and Bush got 179 in 92.
We’re in great shape.
March 6th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
Nowandlater- You have softened your comments about Romney. Who are you?
March 6th, 2008 at 7:48 pm
The map is way, way off with Nebraska and North Dakota.
Its laughable to suggest these states will go partially or entirely for Obama.
More so if Penn. and NJ are going McCain. I cannot see this happen. so between ND AND NE
YOU ADD 10 MORE EV’S to McCain’s total putting him at 263. Also, as one of the readers
have already suggested, he got his butt whipped in the primary and lost crucial votes in
Athens County and suburban Cleveland and Columbus. No way in hell that Pennsylvania, very similar
in population demographics to Ohio and MORE Democratic in terms of registration goes to Obama.
This leaves us with 283-255 in FAVOR of McCain.
Lastly, throw Virginia back to McCain. Yes, Obama had strength in the SurveyUSA poll, but that strength
evaporates when you factor in other recent polling data which gives McCain an average 4 pt lead there.
296-242 with that considered.
Assuming all of surveyusa’s mcain08 states remain true, and we add in the corrections ive listed, we can expect at least one of the mountain west Bush04 states currently showing going to Obama to swing back to McCain’s favor. New Mexico has been the least predictable… I see this landing back safely in McCains camp giving him a grand total of 301 EV to 237. Only time will tell.
March 6th, 2008 at 7:50 pm
Grandma T,
Nowandlater is probaly like most of us. We fought for our candidate to the death. But in the end, we have to deal with reality, and we know that the best thing is for the republicans to win. Even though we are not sure who can help him win yet, we just hope that McCain can choose someone who will help us prevail over the dems.
March 6th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
Re: McCain winning Michigan against Hillary
SUSA has Michigan tied in that matchup.
Trust me, if Michigan is tied on Election Day, Detroit will “find” the votes to give the state to Hillary.
Just trust me on this.
That puts Hillary at 293 EVs, and it’s hard for McCain to make those up without an Ohio or a Florida. The problem for McCain in a race with Hillary is that the two are strong among all the same groups, such as Hispanics, Catholics, old people, and lower income voters. So Hillary neutralizes McCain’s strength in Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Florida, and we’re left with McCain trying to make those votes up in the Upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest. In this situation, a Pawlenty or Crist veep pick makes the most sense.
Fear the Hill, folks. Fear the Hill
March 6th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
I’ll also admit, for me, the 2008 VP is as much about the election four years from now as it is about winning this election. I think McCain will win the WH, and I don’t think he’ll serve two term. I don’t think a sitting VP has ever been unseated in the GOP primary, and I don’t want Pawlenty or Crist as our nominee.
March 6th, 2008 at 8:02 pm
#48: Take a look at the Survey USA poll. It clearly shows McCain beating Hillary but losing to Obama. That means Obama runs better in NH than Hillary.
Lets not move the goalpoasts. The issue isn’t who won the state in the Primary but who is more likely to win in the general and the idea that Obama could lose to Hillary in the Primary but outperform him in November is entirely possible, and in fact supported by the data.
March 6th, 2008 at 8:29 pm
Can we stop the VP speculation for a while? The veep pick usually matters for about a week. People don’t vote for Veep. They vote for President (which is why all this Obama-Hillary dream ticket stuff is ridiculous). And all this talk about Romney delivering Nevada is about as realistic as the talk about Johnny Reid Edwards delivering the South to Kerry.
March 6th, 2008 at 8:51 pm
Speaking of NH, does anyone else note the irony that Obama’s huge polling leads in NH likely caused masses of independents to figure the dem race was over so they decided to make a difference and went for favorite son McCain to save his hide and jump start his campaign, also saving Hillary in the process.
If they had chosen differently it could well be Romney and Obama now.
Ah well…
All I want is for the dems to keep going at it. Hillary brought out the Ken Starr card today and just got roasted on Olbermann and the blogs for her praise of McCain and basically endorsing him over Obama, There’s still 7 weeks to PA. Another 3 months left of primaries. Hillary refused to accept a do-over in MI and she will fight to seat the delegates at the convention. Granholm was threatening that the MI delegation is showing up in Denver regardless and would storm the Pepsi Center if needed and Sen Nelson of FL predicted a train wreck. Al Sharpton was on O’Reilly already warning about the White folks stealing it from the brother. Obama is going to go negative on Hillary. The party is just getting started.
Come June 7, Hillary will be behind in delegates but will force it to the floor and the Supers will push her over. The party will collapse. McCain will win easily.
March 6th, 2008 at 8:51 pm
Two points:
1) Some people do vote for VP, and its been a while since we’ve had a President with as many flaws as McCain (age, no executive experience, a history of running to the left on important issues, no economic knowledge). Compensating for those faults is critical - and the VP matters alot this time around.
2) The South is not a swing region - it is solidly red. NV, on the other hand is a swing state, and could be swung by adding someone who has shown strength in that region.
————————————————-
and I’ll say it again, but there is a very strong possibility will only serve one term. It is virtually (if not completely) impossible to beat a sitting VP for the nomination. For all of you suggesting Pawlenty, Crist, etc., you really need to ask youself: are they the best man to be in the WH in four years?
That is part of the reason I am pushing so hard for Romney - because I think McCain will be a one-termer, and I don’t see a more qualified, conservative, accomplished, and experienced person who would be a better candidate in ‘12.
March 6th, 2008 at 8:54 pm
“Granholm was threatening that the MI delegation is showing up in Denver regardless and would storm the Pepsi Center if needed”
That sounds like our governor. But who was it who wanted to pass a law in FL that would not allow candidates who’s parties didn’t seat the FL delegates onto the ballot? I like that idea.
March 6th, 2008 at 9:04 pm
If I lived in MI or FL I would storm the Pepsi center to have my delegates seated as well. How dare they eliminate the vote of the people.
March 6th, 2008 at 9:28 pm
Hillary will not win Florida…now that’s a funny.
March 6th, 2008 at 10:42 pm
If Romney was our nominee we would sail into the White House, but it looks like Hillary or Obama will be the next president.
March 6th, 2008 at 10:45 pm
Sean Ox: “this talk about Romney delivering Nevada is about as realistic”
If you were talking about an ordinary VP candidate, that might be true, but Mitt can do wonders untold.
Seriously, I think he might be of some help in Michigan, because that looks close and he pandered very well in the primary.
March 6th, 2008 at 10:55 pm
BobH
Exactly what wonders are you talking about? Just because he won a caucus of what… maybe 5-10 thousand people, doesn’t mean he would secure or even help much in Nevada. Same goes for Colorado, and a couple other states people have been talking about. Where exactly does the “Romney will garuntee every swing state in the west for McCain” come from?
I do agree that he would help in Michigan though.
March 6th, 2008 at 11:14 pm
David: My apologies — I should have put up the “sarcasm” sign.
>”Where exactly does the “Romney will garuntee every swing state in the west for McCain†come from?”
The Rombots (some of them) are totally irrational in evaluating their guy’s appeal.
March 6th, 2008 at 11:49 pm
BobH
Ah, ok. I really can’t tell anymore, because there are people on here that would say that without an ounce of sarcasm at all.
March 7th, 2008 at 2:16 am
Look, I would have voted for Romey if he won, but you guys are forgetting that he alienates just as many people as Huckabee. McCain should NOT pick one of the former candidates. Even though I prefered Huckabee, it can’t be him or we lose. What does Romney win us that McCain CAN’T win on his own? Nothing. I’m very very very pro-life, but in my opinion we put Tom Ridge on the ticket. He might be pro-choice, but he is only slightly pro choice. He’s anti-partial-birth, he’s great on BAIPA, and VP’s don’t nominate judges. If McCain won, Ridge probably wouldn’t run after 8 years anyways because he’d be an old man at that point too. It wins Pennsylvania no matter if it’s Hillary of Obama, and has a strong chance of pushing Ohio, New York, New Jersey, and slamming Virginia red. I live in Nebraska, and it’s a joke to think it could even consider going blue. We like our taxes low, we are pro-life, and overwhelmingly the people who champion the “hope” candidate, don’t vote anyways. Maybe Michigan turns red too. I think that he would be the best choice, he is presidential, and would be ready if anything happened to McCain. Now it’s unlikely that McCain will pick him, because he is pro-choice, but he would be smart to do so.
March 7th, 2008 at 5:37 am
While Romney is probably a nice guy, he has indeed hacked off many in the party. His supporters on this web-site continue to take cheap shots at Mr. Huckabee and they risk dividing the party even further. It is becoming more and more clear that the Romney people do not know what they are talking about. As a Huckabee supporter, I can admit that none of the candidates are perfect. Each of the candidates have good and bad points. The Romney people only see one side of the story. Neither Mr. Huckabee nor his supporters have asked for Mr. Huckabee to be the VP. I will vote for McCain even if Mr. Huckabee is not the VP. Their are several Republicans who could do the job. For the record, even if though he is not favorite character, Mr. Romney could do the job and would get my vote. However, if you Romney people don’t calm down and grow up, I will not look forward to voting for a McCain Romney ticket. You have caused enough nastiness and division in our party and it is time to stop. The race is over, give it a break.
March 7th, 2008 at 9:19 am
How did Romney hack off anybody, by making them look stupid in the debates? He was a perfect gentleman at all times, remained presidential, he never personally attacked anyone, and even in his ’so called’ negative ads, he always said nice things about the opponents, and only put forth the issues. Then, when there was an almost certain chance of being able to take this nomination process to a brokered convention, he instead stepped aside for the unity of the party to rally behind McCain to try and prevent a democrat from coming in and messing up on protecting us from Islamic extremism. I know you must have been frustrated at times on your candidate’s ability to compete with him in the debates, and noone had the credentials, the intelligence, nor the look of a President like MItt, but that is no reason for him to have you hacked off.
March 7th, 2008 at 9:37 am
“If you were talking about an ordinary VP candidate, that might be true, but Mitt can do wonders untold.”
When Mitt Romney does a pushup, he’s really giving the world a push-down.
March 7th, 2008 at 9:43 am
Romney is a perfect politician. He always says what the audience wants to hear, regardless of whether he believes in it himself.
March 7th, 2008 at 10:44 am
Illinoisguy: Read what you just wrote and you will understand why everybody laughs at the Rombots. You folks are the comic relief of this website.
Apologies to the rational Romney folks — I know there are a bunch of you. It’s just that a few others hold all of you (and your candidate) up to ridicule.
March 7th, 2008 at 10:46 am
Get specific Bob. What did I say that was ridiculous? NOTHING!
March 7th, 2008 at 10:56 am
“Then, when there was an almost certain chance of being able to take this nomination process to a brokered convention, he instead stepped aside for the unity of the party to rally behind McCain to try and prevent a democrat from coming in and messing up on protecting us from Islamic extremism.”
protecting us = more pointless wars?
http://www.vietnamveteransagainstjohnmccain.com/video_prime_viet.htm
March 7th, 2008 at 11:14 am
Awwwwww, a Ron Paul lover!
March 7th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
Especially when the race was hot, a lot of the Rombots drove me nuts. And, yes a lot of the Romney for VP boosters have a greatly inflated sense of his potential.
But I think a lot of the resistance to Romney comes from people who supported McCain (or Huckabee) and believe that picking him constitutes some sort of tacit admission that the party picked wrong. And I don’t think that position makes any sense. I voted for McCain and I did so because I believe he would be the stronger candidate and stronger President. But if Nevada, Colorado and New Hampshire could go either way, the 1-2 points Romney could help in those states could make the difference. You don’t have to be an irrational Rombot, or even a sane Romney supporter, to recognize that. And you can also recognize this AND still believe the party made the right choice in picking McCain in the first place.
March 7th, 2008 at 1:03 pm
But I think a lot of the resistance to Romney comes from people who supported McCain (or Huckabee) and believe that picking him constitutes some sort of tacit admission that the party picked wrong. And I don’t think that position makes any sense.
Sean, I agree with you. I wish more of those people would think about it now as you are and do what’s good for the party. That’s what Mitt did, and I think its time for McCain to do the same. I honestly think he brings a lot more than 1-2% in quite a few close states, enough that if he is chosen, McCain wins this thing handily. Then we’re in great shape whenever McCain decides to hand over the reins.
March 7th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
> “But I think a lot of the resistance to Romney comes from people who supported McCain (or Huckabee) and believe that picking him constitutes some sort of tacit admission that the party picked wrong.”
Sean P: I don’t think there’s any evidence of that — can you cite anything?
Actually, I don’t think there’s much opposition to Romney as a possible VP pick, at least on this site. I think he’d be an OK choice for VP (as would others), just as I thought he’s have been an OK pick for Prez (though I preferred McCain).
The opposition here is to the Rombots, not to Romney. I don’t think I’m the only one here getting tired of seeing every thread on every subject turned into an endless hymn of praise to the wonders of Saint Mitt.
I have stated before that I think Romney could he helpful in Michigan, where he did a great job of pandering to the auto industry in the primary. I’m less convinced he’d help much elsewhere, but it’s a possibility.
March 7th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
“The opposition here is to the Rombots, not to Romney. I don’t think I’m the only one here getting tired of seeing every thread on every subject turned into an endless hymn of praise to the wonders of Saint Mitt.”
You may be right, and the rational Romney supporters who want to see him in the #2 slot would be well advised to take your observation to heart.
March 7th, 2008 at 3:11 pm
If The Romnots find our support for Romney as VP to be annoying, then they are just getting a taste of their own medicine from the primaries: when every thread became a bash-romney thread. No candidate took as many attacks on this site as Romney - and no other candidate had to face the same kind of personal jabs - ON THE FRONT PAGE.
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Lets face it, you are not going to find another candidate who has the same experience, conservative positions, economic know-how, long list of accompishments, and organization that Mitt Does.
And I can’t overemphasize 2012. Romney is more experienced, more accomplished, and more familiar with important domestic issues (the kind that will rule the 2012 election) than of the other potential VPs. Romney is the one best able to pick up the banner and be heir apparent in four years.
March 7th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Yes, for the most part, it is opposition to Rombots, not Mr. Romney. Yes there is a place in our party for Mr. Romney, but only if his supporters get off their high horses and play as a team.
March 7th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
Its a two way street.
I don’t remember you complaining when this place was an anti-Romney bashing party in the fall. I don’t remember you opposing people who were denouncing every Romney supporter as a mormon from Utah, or hipocritically attacking Romney as a “flip-flopper” while supporting John - “I can’t support the repeal of Roe” - McCain.
There are deffinately people on here who think they are above the rest, but it ain’t the Romney supporters.
March 7th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
Guys, all I can say is that its frustrating! I asked Kavon over a week ago to make what I’m listing as a front page post. I’ve seen probably 30 postings about Pawlenty, Palin, Sanford, Rice, Watts, etc in the last few weeks, but I haven’t seen a single one about Mitt. So, when we do our little ‘cry from the wilderness’ extolling the credentials of Romney, we are accused of being way out of bounds. Its the only way I know of to be heard since no postings are ever about Mitt, and dozens are about other much lesser known and much less qualified individuals.
I’m going to paste something from a pro-McCain site that came up after Huckabee won Kansas. Here are the reasons they wanted Mitt. Did this get posted here? NO! Did we ask it to be, so we could discuss the merits of them? Yes! I don’t know that I agree with every single one of the 26 items below, but I think many of them have a lot of merit as to what Mitt would bring to the ticket:
“There seems to be very many pluses to picking Gov. Romney as John McCain’s V.P. running mate.
Here is the growing list of reasons why Governor Romney would be the perfect V.P. choice for McCain - and everyone else:
There is widespread agreement that if John McCain loses this year, Gov. Romney will run in 2012. If Gov. Romney were on the ticket as V.P. next in line for the GOP nod in 2016, Mr. McCain would not have to worry about whether Mr. Romney would work as hard as possible for a McCain/Romney win this year.
Governor Romney is very intelligent, and I think would be very comfortable dealing with foreign dignitaries.
Governor Romney is very rich and has a well-oiled fund-raising circuit that would be very beneficial to Mr. McCain.
Governor Romney would bring expertise to economic matters that Mr. McCain seems to be lacking.
Governor Romney would bring executive experience as a Governor to the ticket.
Governor Romney would bring almost all of his supporters to help with a McCain/Romney ticket, thereby assuring that his supporters aren’t trying to bring him attention to a potential 2012 run, nipping such conversation quickly, before it takes root and is hard to break apart.
Governor Romney appeals to social, economic and defense conservatives, bringing the whole Party and most of the Conservative Movement - including talk radio - on board with the ticket.
Romney supporters are very enthusiastic and dedicated. You cannot buy this kind of endearment, but McCain would be able to pick up his supporters, and their already-in-place organizational and other skills they would have to offer to the ticket.
Romney would help John McCain in purple states such as Michigan, Nevada and Minnesota, and could even put Massachusetts in place in November.
Governor Romney brings all the necessary ingredients to John McCain’s campaign that he so desperately needs to succeed against Hillary - and especially - an Obama Democratic opponent.
You cannot buy loyalty like Governor Romney has with his supporters. You have to EARN it. By giving Romney the nod for the V.P. slot, McCain would be showing the Conservative Movement in America that he will not abandon them in the future. If he does this, he will almost be unstoppable in the fall against the Democrats.
Governor Romney is now widely seen as heir next in line to be the GOP nominee if McCain were to be defeated, or if McCain served two terms, then 2116, if Romney stays in the game that long. The move to make Romney V.P. would silence many evangelical and social conservatives who now would support Gov. Romney, including Dr. Dobson and others. This would shore up support among Mr. Huckabee’s supporters to Mr. McCain, endearing McCain as the one who actually DID bring the Party and Conservative Movement together to defeat the Democrats and take BACK both Houses of Congress!
Gov. Romney was the clear “change†candidate - and ran on that theme. The move to make Romney V.P. would be a tough ticket against a Hillary/Obama ticket. Change wins almost every time. We would now be able to bring that on-the-ground message IMMEDIATELY!
As the man who actually did something about - and has earned him wide recognition of - healthcare reform, he is the ideal man to blunt the Democrat’s BillaryCare proposals. This item would essentially be OURS as Republicans, which would deflate much criticism against the Republicans for not adequately addressing this critical issue thus far!
By picking Romney, we come out a totally unified Republican Party AND Conservative Movement - ready to fight against the Democrats NOW!
McCain IS the President-elect. He WILL be the Commander in Chief. McCain WILL be the boss - apple sauce -non debatable. McCain will get his way on very many things. But, Mr. Romney can still use cabinet meetings and gestures to try to persuade Mr. McCain to go all the way toward Ronald Reagan’s principled road of social, economic and military-might conservatism. Mr. McCain will ALWAYS win. But, Romney will be RIGHT there to balance McCain as needed.
Romney would be good for McCain, since Romney is NOT a “yes†man. Romney is a principled, determined conservative who is GRACIOUS -yet stern when applicable - who can turn the other cheek when needed, after his opinions are known and rejected. He PROVED that by bowing out graciously and promising to work hard for Mr. McCain as the GOP nominee-to-be. Mr. McCain does NOT need a “yes†man, but rather someone who can keep his temper and political wavering’s from right issues in check.
An informal straw vote among those present to see who they might prefer for President after the CPAC convention showed Romney winning it with 34%, followed by John McCain at 33 %, and Huckabee way down at only 14 percent. This vote proves that adding Gov. Romney to the ticket would quell the right and go along way toward making sure they aren’t complacent on election day.
If McCain does not pick a well-known conservative for V.P., it may take MONTHS for the Republican electorate to get know and accept him, as was the case with Gov. Romney. Conservatives now know that Romney is “one of us,†after his gracious exodus speech at a stunned CPAC convention. People cried. My wife cried. I cried. You CANNOT buy that kind of endearment! Governor Mitt Romney EARNED IT!
John McCain is old, grey, and not very attractive overall. A V.P. pick that is younger, more handsome, and without so many grey hairs will help McCain with some voters concerns about such things. Romney fits the bill here.
No other governor fits as many specific criteria that a V.P. should have than Governor Romney. A pick that is OTHER than a governor for the V.P. slot isn’t as attractive to some voters. Executive experience does matter, and Romney can balance a McCain ticket in this way.
A V.P. pick should already be politically battle-hardened so that there won’t be embarrassing moments for the campaign. Romney took punches from virtuously everyone - and still stayed a gentlemen under pressure.
A V.P. pick MUST be a scandal and corruption-free pick that under the intense scrutiny of the media’s microscope, will not be a negative for the campaign. Romney is about as pure as new snow as one can get. His first and only wife, along with ALL his children, are fine, upstanding citizens with no baggage to bring to a McCain campaign.
Many Romney supporters feel like they were shafted by McCain due to his mis-characterization (some say lie) of Romney’s stance on time tables and troops withdrawal from Iraq right before the Florida contest. Romney supporters are keenly aware of the extreme distaste McCain and some of his supporters have for Mr. Romney, and this is feeding a movement for him to run in 2012, ceding the 2008 election to the Democrats. If Romney becomes McCain’s V.P. choice, most of this talk, including the movement, would stop, with Romney supporters instead working hard for the McCain/Romney 2008 ticket.
Most Mormons feel betrayed and bitter about what many see as Mr. Huckabee’s overt anti-Mormon bigotry. The history of the Republican Party and Mormons goes back many years, and Mormons have ALWAYS been a strong, reliable source of strength for our Party. By putting Mr. Romney on the ticket, they will feel that Mr. McCain is really not going to let our Party leave them feeling left out, possibly losing this constituency for a long time to come. Let’s be a party of inclusion that the voters approve of, not of the bigoted few that only divide us to eventual ruin.
Mr. Huckabee’s wins on saturday against McCain are a harbinger of what is in store for the McCain campaign if they don’t act QUICKLY to put this fire of his out. This will become a movement in short order if not stopped immediately, leading to a full-blown retreat from McCain. If McCain doesn’t make Romney the V.P. choice very soon, then Huckabee may be in a position to demand he be on the ticket with McCain. If McCain must do this, he will effectively cause a rift in the Republican Party that will not heal for possibly many years to come. Huckabee is unacceptable to far too many than he will ever attract.
Can you give me some good reason’s why Mitt Romney SHOULD NOT be John McCain’s V.P. pick?”
Sorry about its length, but I felt it deserved discussion, and that it shouldn’t be edited by me.
March 7th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
Illinois guy, unfortunately none of the people on this blog have anything to do with the VP selection. Most people on race42008 would be comfortable with Romney as the VP, even if he is not their first pick. We do not really have anything to talk about on this blog except the VP selection, polls, or which states would be better for McCain, Obama or Hillary. Throw in a couple of McCain speeches or slams by Hillary or Obama and there is nothing else to talk about. Sooooo the same things about Romney get said over and over. Relax and try to realize that WE have NO power over this situation. When the decision is made we can be totally excited or mad at how it didn’t turn out the way we would have liked. You are not alone in how you feel, however, some of us realize that the people on this blog are not the people to convince. Please do not take this the wrong way. I share your enthusiasm but I am a little more realistic about what can be done here on this blog.
Keep finding cool things to add to the blog because I read most of them even if I do not comment. We will get our chance to be heard if not this election then in 2012 and Romney will still be brilliant economic guy. He will be better prepared and may even be a little more relaxed so that people find out that he is a real person and not just a bank account.
March 7th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
Grandma, thanks. My problem though is that there is a ton of VP discussion being put on here as front page items, and they are NEVER about Mitt, but when we bring up Mitt, we get slammed for it. When people are putting forth ‘no name’ people as if they are somehow the best, its hard to keep quiet. Some people on here bring up Pawlenty and Sanford, etc. more than my measly little posts about Mitt, and I don’t see them getting slammed for their less than humble opinions!
March 7th, 2008 at 7:09 pm
Illinoisguy- I understand your frustration!! However, we are not in charge of this blog site. Possibly the fact that you bring Romney for VP and several of us comment on Romney every time you bring it up, they don’t want to encourage us. Truthfully, I am not sure that if McCain were to lose this race, it would be in Romney’s best interest to be on the ticket. I am also torn about whether it would be better for Romney to wait since he does not share many of McCain’s views and would be forced to follow the president if he were on the ticket. The flip side would be that possibly Romney could balance out McCain’s liberal side. That is why I do not push Romney to the extent that you do. I am a Romney delegate from NV and it is VERY depressing having to give my delegate vote to McCain, but I will.
As I have said from the begining, if it is supposed to happen it will. If it is not supposed to happen or it is the wrong time, it will not happen. That allows me to disengage a little about the things that I can not control.
March 7th, 2008 at 7:19 pm
Its nearly (if not completely) impossible to unseat a sitting VP in a party primary. If Romney is not VP, and if McCain wins, Romney’s chances of ever becoming President become VERY slim.
March 7th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
Act- #86 That is the reason I am still very positive about Romney for VP. However, If McCain loses, that puts Romney in the John Edwards category and that hasn’t worked out to well for Edwards. No one knows the outcome of this election and I believe that McCain has as good of a chance or better of winning in 2008.
Putting Romney on the ticket for me balances out the ticket especially on economics and adds MI. I do believe that Romney adds in all the states that he won and also 2nd place but, most people on this blog think that McCain will win those anyway.
I just do NOT want Romney to give up his conservative principles because that is what I like about him.
March 7th, 2008 at 7:41 pm
What happened to Jason on this site?
March 8th, 2008 at 8:18 pm
Yawn!
March 9th, 2008 at 10:57 am
So against Hillary, McCain picks up Michigan,New Hampshire,Oregon and Washington but still loses the White House.
March 11th, 2008 at 8:11 am
They have NH all wrong… i live here i can tell you for sure it will never goto obama
but we have seen NH polls to be very wrong once already. why because if you call people in the boonies slums of NH you will get obama supporters. south its all Clinton you cant even find an obama sign
March 11th, 2008 at 9:12 am
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