The Candidates
Featured Archives
The move changes their “Balance of Power Calculator” to Dem 264, GOP 229:
On Monday, Ohio has moved from Leans Democrat to Toss-up in Electoral College projections made by the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. John McCain leads Barack Obama by a statistically insignificant percentage point in the Buckeye State and also leads Hillary Clinton by three. The change in status, however, results from changes in Rasmussen Markets data. Expectations for a Democratic victory in Ohio fell below 60%. When combined with other factors used to calculate expectations, this was enough to make Ohio the fourth state in the Toss-Up category (along with Colorado, Missouri, and Nevada ).
See a summary of recent polls and Rasmussen Market expectations for key states in the Electoral College showdown.
The Ohio shift means that Democrats now lead in states with 264 Electoral College Votes (down from 284). Republicans are favored in states with 229 Votes (see recent daily results). However, when “leaners” are not included in the total, the Democrats lead 252 Electoral Votes to 189. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.
Eight states with 97 Electoral Votes are either a pure Toss-Up or just slightly leaning to one party or the other. These are likely to be the early battleground states of Election 2008: Florida (27), Ohio (20), Virginia (13), Missouri (11), Colorado (9), Iowa (7), Nevada (5), and New Mexico (5).
March 10th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
If it’s Obama vs McCain, I think McCain holds a very slight advantage at this point in Ohio due to Obama’s relatively disappointing showing against Clinton last week. Since HRC and McCain draw from a similar pool of voters, that would be the tougher matchup for McCain.
Side note: We need some new polling in VA. I really don’t think the Dems have as much of a chance at carrying the state as it seems now. It will be close but I see McCain pulling out a 5-6 point victory there against Clinton and 3-4 against Obama.
March 10th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
If McCain wins Ohio he is the POTUS. FL he is guaranteed against
Obama.
March 10th, 2008 at 2:07 pm
Mike,
Most likely on the OH comment, but McCain may need to pick off another state against Obama if he loses IA, NM, CO and NV. Best chances for McCain to offset them would be WI, PA, MI wth slightly lesser chances (but still possible) of NJ, OR and MN.
A Romney addition to the ticket will help maintain NV and CO. Obama needs both of those to win if he loses OH.
March 10th, 2008 at 5:25 pm
Mr. McCain can beat either candidate in Ohio, but it could be close.
March 11th, 2008 at 10:41 am
[...]  http://race42008.com/2008/03/10/rasmussen-moves-ohio-to-toss-up/ KavonW. Nikrad 3-10-2008 [...]